Latest:
 AFDOUN |  AFDTSA |
  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOUN 282337
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
637 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
TAFS 2900/3000Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GAG/WWR...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.  IN FAR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY FORM
ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WITH BETTER CHANCES NORTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY IMPACTING GAG/WWR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ONLY BE 15-20
KNOTS...SO EXPECT ANY STORM ORGANIZATION TO BE LIMITED. STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE OVER 1800 J/KG INDICATE THAT
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP.

AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...OPTED TO ISSUE A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO BE CLOSE TO OR NEAR 105F.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA
AND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. EXPECT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALSO TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST.
THE COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH A DECREASED CHANCE OF RAIN. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY MID-WEEK.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  96  73  93 /   0  10  20  30
HOBART OK         74  98  73  96 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  98  75  98 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           71  91  69  88 /  20  30  50  40
PONCA CITY OK     75  94  71  89 /  10  20  30  30
DURANT OK         76  99  76  99 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ026-030>032-
     042-043-047-048-051-052.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-048-052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 282337
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
637 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
TAFS 2900/3000Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GAG/WWR...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.  IN FAR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY FORM
ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WITH BETTER CHANCES NORTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY IMPACTING GAG/WWR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ONLY BE 15-20
KNOTS...SO EXPECT ANY STORM ORGANIZATION TO BE LIMITED. STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE OVER 1800 J/KG INDICATE THAT
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP.

AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...OPTED TO ISSUE A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO BE CLOSE TO OR NEAR 105F.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA
AND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. EXPECT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALSO TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST.
THE COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH A DECREASED CHANCE OF RAIN. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY MID-WEEK.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  96  73  93 /   0  10  20  30
HOBART OK         74  98  73  96 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  98  75  98 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           71  91  69  88 /  20  30  50  40
PONCA CITY OK     75  94  71  89 /  10  20  30  30
DURANT OK         76  99  76  99 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ026-030>032-
     042-043-047-048-051-052.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-048-052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 282337
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
637 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
TAFS 2900/3000Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GAG/WWR...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.  IN FAR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY FORM
ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WITH BETTER CHANCES NORTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY IMPACTING GAG/WWR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ONLY BE 15-20
KNOTS...SO EXPECT ANY STORM ORGANIZATION TO BE LIMITED. STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE OVER 1800 J/KG INDICATE THAT
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP.

AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...OPTED TO ISSUE A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO BE CLOSE TO OR NEAR 105F.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA
AND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. EXPECT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALSO TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST.
THE COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH A DECREASED CHANCE OF RAIN. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY MID-WEEK.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  96  73  93 /   0  10  20  30
HOBART OK         74  98  73  96 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  98  75  98 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           71  91  69  88 /  20  30  50  40
PONCA CITY OK     75  94  71  89 /  10  20  30  30
DURANT OK         76  99  76  99 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ026-030>032-
     042-043-047-048-051-052.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-048-052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KTSA 282322
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
622 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO NE OK BY WED AFTERNOON. POOLING DEWPOINTS ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL OFFSET ANY POTENTIAL
COOLING TO ENSURE ADVISORY CRITERIA HEAT INDEX READINGS ON
WEDNESDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL INITIALLY FAVOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS MORNING WITH A FOCUS NEARER THE
SFC BOUNDARY THURS AFTERNOON / EVENING. OVERALL WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH UPPER HIGH CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO REDUCE THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPS
WILL TREND DOWNWARD...THOUGH AN AXIS OF HIGH DEWPOINTS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY AGAIN PUSH ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT
INDICES.

THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
FRIDAY BEFORE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AGAIN EXPAND AND PUSH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHICH WILL KEEP MID LEVEL TEMPS A
BIT COOLER WHICH MAY SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN DIURNAL TERRAIN INDUCED
CONVECTION...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  98  75  93 /   0  10  20  20
FSM   77 100  78  97 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   74  98  74  95 /   0  10  10  30
BVO   74  95  73  90 /  10  10  20  20
FYV   73  93  73  89 /   0  10  10  20
BYV   74  94  70  89 /   0  10  10  20
MKO   76  96  76  92 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   75  95  70  91 /   0  10  10  20
F10   74  98  75  93 /   0  10  10  20
HHW   74  99  76  99 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
     060>062-064>068-070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-
     029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...18




000
FXUS64 KTSA 282322
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
622 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO NE OK BY WED AFTERNOON. POOLING DEWPOINTS ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL OFFSET ANY POTENTIAL
COOLING TO ENSURE ADVISORY CRITERIA HEAT INDEX READINGS ON
WEDNESDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL INITIALLY FAVOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS MORNING WITH A FOCUS NEARER THE
SFC BOUNDARY THURS AFTERNOON / EVENING. OVERALL WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH UPPER HIGH CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO REDUCE THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPS
WILL TREND DOWNWARD...THOUGH AN AXIS OF HIGH DEWPOINTS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY AGAIN PUSH ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT
INDICES.

THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
FRIDAY BEFORE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AGAIN EXPAND AND PUSH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHICH WILL KEEP MID LEVEL TEMPS A
BIT COOLER WHICH MAY SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN DIURNAL TERRAIN INDUCED
CONVECTION...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  98  75  93 /   0  10  20  20
FSM   77 100  78  97 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   74  98  74  95 /   0  10  10  30
BVO   74  95  73  90 /  10  10  20  20
FYV   73  93  73  89 /   0  10  10  20
BYV   74  94  70  89 /   0  10  10  20
MKO   76  96  76  92 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   75  95  70  91 /   0  10  10  20
F10   74  98  75  93 /   0  10  10  20
HHW   74  99  76  99 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
     060>062-064>068-070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-
     029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...18



000
FXUS64 KTSA 282322
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
622 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO NE OK BY WED AFTERNOON. POOLING DEWPOINTS ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL OFFSET ANY POTENTIAL
COOLING TO ENSURE ADVISORY CRITERIA HEAT INDEX READINGS ON
WEDNESDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL INITIALLY FAVOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS MORNING WITH A FOCUS NEARER THE
SFC BOUNDARY THURS AFTERNOON / EVENING. OVERALL WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH UPPER HIGH CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO REDUCE THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPS
WILL TREND DOWNWARD...THOUGH AN AXIS OF HIGH DEWPOINTS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY AGAIN PUSH ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT
INDICES.

THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
FRIDAY BEFORE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AGAIN EXPAND AND PUSH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHICH WILL KEEP MID LEVEL TEMPS A
BIT COOLER WHICH MAY SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN DIURNAL TERRAIN INDUCED
CONVECTION...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  98  75  93 /   0  10  20  20
FSM   77 100  78  97 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   74  98  74  95 /   0  10  10  30
BVO   74  95  73  90 /  10  10  20  20
FYV   73  93  73  89 /   0  10  10  20
BYV   74  94  70  89 /   0  10  10  20
MKO   76  96  76  92 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   75  95  70  91 /   0  10  10  20
F10   74  98  75  93 /   0  10  10  20
HHW   74  99  76  99 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
     060>062-064>068-070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-
     029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...18




000
FXUS64 KTSA 282322
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
622 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO NE OK BY WED AFTERNOON. POOLING DEWPOINTS ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL OFFSET ANY POTENTIAL
COOLING TO ENSURE ADVISORY CRITERIA HEAT INDEX READINGS ON
WEDNESDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL INITIALLY FAVOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS MORNING WITH A FOCUS NEARER THE
SFC BOUNDARY THURS AFTERNOON / EVENING. OVERALL WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH UPPER HIGH CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO REDUCE THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPS
WILL TREND DOWNWARD...THOUGH AN AXIS OF HIGH DEWPOINTS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY AGAIN PUSH ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT
INDICES.

THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
FRIDAY BEFORE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AGAIN EXPAND AND PUSH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHICH WILL KEEP MID LEVEL TEMPS A
BIT COOLER WHICH MAY SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN DIURNAL TERRAIN INDUCED
CONVECTION...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  98  75  93 /   0  10  20  20
FSM   77 100  78  97 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   74  98  74  95 /   0  10  10  30
BVO   74  95  73  90 /  10  10  20  20
FYV   73  93  73  89 /   0  10  10  20
BYV   74  94  70  89 /   0  10  10  20
MKO   76  96  76  92 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   75  95  70  91 /   0  10  10  20
F10   74  98  75  93 /   0  10  10  20
HHW   74  99  76  99 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
     060>062-064>068-070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-
     029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...18




000
FXUS64 KTSA 282322
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
622 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO NE OK BY WED AFTERNOON. POOLING DEWPOINTS ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL OFFSET ANY POTENTIAL
COOLING TO ENSURE ADVISORY CRITERIA HEAT INDEX READINGS ON
WEDNESDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL INITIALLY FAVOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS MORNING WITH A FOCUS NEARER THE
SFC BOUNDARY THURS AFTERNOON / EVENING. OVERALL WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH UPPER HIGH CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO REDUCE THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPS
WILL TREND DOWNWARD...THOUGH AN AXIS OF HIGH DEWPOINTS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY AGAIN PUSH ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT
INDICES.

THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
FRIDAY BEFORE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AGAIN EXPAND AND PUSH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHICH WILL KEEP MID LEVEL TEMPS A
BIT COOLER WHICH MAY SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN DIURNAL TERRAIN INDUCED
CONVECTION...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  98  75  93 /   0  10  20  20
FSM   77 100  78  97 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   74  98  74  95 /   0  10  10  30
BVO   74  95  73  90 /  10  10  20  20
FYV   73  93  73  89 /   0  10  10  20
BYV   74  94  70  89 /   0  10  10  20
MKO   76  96  76  92 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   75  95  70  91 /   0  10  10  20
F10   74  98  75  93 /   0  10  10  20
HHW   74  99  76  99 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
     060>062-064>068-070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-
     029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...18




000
FXUS64 KTSA 282322
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
622 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO NE OK BY WED AFTERNOON. POOLING DEWPOINTS ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL OFFSET ANY POTENTIAL
COOLING TO ENSURE ADVISORY CRITERIA HEAT INDEX READINGS ON
WEDNESDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL INITIALLY FAVOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS MORNING WITH A FOCUS NEARER THE
SFC BOUNDARY THURS AFTERNOON / EVENING. OVERALL WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH UPPER HIGH CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO REDUCE THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPS
WILL TREND DOWNWARD...THOUGH AN AXIS OF HIGH DEWPOINTS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY AGAIN PUSH ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT
INDICES.

THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
FRIDAY BEFORE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AGAIN EXPAND AND PUSH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHICH WILL KEEP MID LEVEL TEMPS A
BIT COOLER WHICH MAY SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN DIURNAL TERRAIN INDUCED
CONVECTION...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  98  75  93 /   0  10  20  20
FSM   77 100  78  97 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   74  98  74  95 /   0  10  10  30
BVO   74  95  73  90 /  10  10  20  20
FYV   73  93  73  89 /   0  10  10  20
BYV   74  94  70  89 /   0  10  10  20
MKO   76  96  76  92 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   75  95  70  91 /   0  10  10  20
F10   74  98  75  93 /   0  10  10  20
HHW   74  99  76  99 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
     060>062-064>068-070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-
     029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...18




000
FXUS64 KTSA 282027
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO NE OK BY WED AFTERNOON. POOLING DEWPOINTS ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL OFFSET ANY POTENTIAL
COOLING TO ENSURE ADVISORY CRITERIA HEAT INDEX READINGS ON
WEDNESDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL INITIALLY FAVOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS MORNING WITH A FOCUS NEARER THE
SFC BOUNDARY THURS AFTERNOON / EVENING. OVERALL WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH UPPER HIGH CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO REDUCE THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPS
WILL TREND DOWNWARD...THOUGH AN AXIS OF HIGH DEWPOINTS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY AGAIN PUSH ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT
INDICES.

THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
FRIDAY BEFORE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AGAIN EXPAND AND PUSH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHICH WILL KEEP MID LEVEL TEMPS A
BIT COOLER WHICH MAY SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN DIURNAL TERRAIN INDUCED
CONVECTION...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  98  75  93 /   0  10  20  20
FSM   77 100  78  97 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   74  98  74  95 /   0  10  10  30
BVO   74  95  73  90 /  10  10  20  20
FYV   73  93  73  89 /   0  10  10  20
BYV   74  94  70  89 /   0  10  10  20
MKO   76  96  76  92 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   75  95  70  91 /   0  10  10  20
F10   74  98  75  93 /   0  10  10  20
HHW   74  99  76  99 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
     060>062-064>068-070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-
     029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 282027
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO NE OK BY WED AFTERNOON. POOLING DEWPOINTS ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL OFFSET ANY POTENTIAL
COOLING TO ENSURE ADVISORY CRITERIA HEAT INDEX READINGS ON
WEDNESDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL INITIALLY FAVOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS MORNING WITH A FOCUS NEARER THE
SFC BOUNDARY THURS AFTERNOON / EVENING. OVERALL WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH UPPER HIGH CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO REDUCE THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPS
WILL TREND DOWNWARD...THOUGH AN AXIS OF HIGH DEWPOINTS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY AGAIN PUSH ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT
INDICES.

THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
FRIDAY BEFORE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AGAIN EXPAND AND PUSH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHICH WILL KEEP MID LEVEL TEMPS A
BIT COOLER WHICH MAY SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN DIURNAL TERRAIN INDUCED
CONVECTION...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  98  75  93 /   0  10  20  20
FSM   77 100  78  97 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   74  98  74  95 /   0  10  10  30
BVO   74  95  73  90 /  10  10  20  20
FYV   73  93  73  89 /   0  10  10  20
BYV   74  94  70  89 /   0  10  10  20
MKO   76  96  76  92 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   75  95  70  91 /   0  10  10  20
F10   74  98  75  93 /   0  10  10  20
HHW   74  99  76  99 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
     060>062-064>068-070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-
     029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....07



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281959
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
259 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ONLY BE 15-20
KNOTS...SO EXPECT ANY STORM ORGANIZATION TO BE LIMITED. STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE OVER 1800 J/KG INDICATE THAT
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP.

AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...OPTED TO ISSUE A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO BE CLOSE TO OR NEAR 105F.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA
AND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. EXPECT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALSO TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST.
THE COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH A DECREASED CHANCE OF RAIN. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY MID-WEEK.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  96  73  93 /   0  10  20  30
HOBART OK         74  98  73  96 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  98  75  98 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           71  91  69  88 /  20  30  50  40
PONCA CITY OK     75  94  71  89 /  10  20  30  30
DURANT OK         76  99  76  99 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ026-030>032-
     042-043-047-048-051-052.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-048-052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281959
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
259 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ONLY BE 15-20
KNOTS...SO EXPECT ANY STORM ORGANIZATION TO BE LIMITED. STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE OVER 1800 J/KG INDICATE THAT
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP.

AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...OPTED TO ISSUE A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO BE CLOSE TO OR NEAR 105F.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA
AND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. EXPECT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALSO TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST.
THE COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH A DECREASED CHANCE OF RAIN. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY MID-WEEK.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  96  73  93 /   0  10  20  30
HOBART OK         74  98  73  96 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  98  75  98 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           71  91  69  88 /  20  30  50  40
PONCA CITY OK     75  94  71  89 /  10  20  30  30
DURANT OK         76  99  76  99 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ026-030>032-
     042-043-047-048-051-052.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-048-052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281959
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
259 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ONLY BE 15-20
KNOTS...SO EXPECT ANY STORM ORGANIZATION TO BE LIMITED. STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE OVER 1800 J/KG INDICATE THAT
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP.

AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...OPTED TO ISSUE A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO BE CLOSE TO OR NEAR 105F.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA
AND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. EXPECT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALSO TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST.
THE COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH A DECREASED CHANCE OF RAIN. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY MID-WEEK.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  96  73  93 /   0  10  20  30
HOBART OK         74  98  73  96 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  98  75  98 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           71  91  69  88 /  20  30  50  40
PONCA CITY OK     75  94  71  89 /  10  20  30  30
DURANT OK         76  99  76  99 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ026-030>032-
     042-043-047-048-051-052.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-048-052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281959
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
259 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ONLY BE 15-20
KNOTS...SO EXPECT ANY STORM ORGANIZATION TO BE LIMITED. STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE OVER 1800 J/KG INDICATE THAT
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP.

AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...OPTED TO ISSUE A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO BE CLOSE TO OR NEAR 105F.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA
AND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. EXPECT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALSO TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST.
THE COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH A DECREASED CHANCE OF RAIN. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY MID-WEEK.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  96  73  93 /   0  10  20  30
HOBART OK         74  98  73  96 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  98  75  98 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           71  91  69  88 /  20  30  50  40
PONCA CITY OK     75  94  71  89 /  10  20  30  30
DURANT OK         76  99  76  99 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ026-030>032-
     042-043-047-048-051-052.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-048-052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281754
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1254 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN TODAY AT MOST TERMINALS. A
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM WILL INTRODUCE PROB30 FROM 03Z
ON AT KGAG/KWWR. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT THESE
LOCATIONS FROM 10Z TO 12Z WED...AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
ELSEWHERE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

UPDATE...
ADDED ATOKA AND BRYAN COUNTIES TO THE HEAT ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ALSO...DELAYED RAIN CHANCES IN
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA UNTIL AFTER 5 PM.

DISCUSSION...
MORE HOT AND SUNNY WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.

PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND HAVING HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 105 DEGREES...ADDED THE
DURANT AND ATOKA AREAS TO THE HEAT ADVISORY. THE REST OF THE
ADVISORY OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY OVERALL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY IN
MANY LOCATIONS...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT HIGHER.
HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY FORM NEAR A WEAK FRONT IN
FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA LATER TODAY. APPEARS THE EARLIEST TIMING
OF STORMS WOULD BE 5 PM...THUS DELAYED TIMING. STORM COVERAGE
APPEARS TO BE LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  95  72  93 /   0  10  20  20
HOBART OK         74  98  72  96 /  10  10  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  75  98 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           70  89  68  89 /  30  30  40  30
PONCA CITY OK     75  92  70  90 /  10  20  30  20
DURANT OK         75  98  76  98 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-048-052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84



000
FXUS64 KTSA 281652
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1152 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TSRA MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW AR THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD AFFECT
FSM/FYV/XNA/ROG...BUT LOW ANTICIPATED COVERAGE MAKES THE OVERALL
CHANCE OF IMPACTS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...WHICH SHOULD SWITCH WINDS TO
A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT BVO AND PERHAPS TUL/RVS LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

YET ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON TODAY WITH UPPER RIDGE PRETTY
MUCH CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. SURFACE
MOISTURE HAS BEEN LOATHE TO COMPLETELY MIX OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THE LAST FEW DAYS...SO HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS
JUST A BIT...WHICH OF COURSE LEADS TO A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
THE FORECAST MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AS WELL. GOING HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT SO NO HEADLINE CHANGES FORTHCOMING.

BOTH THE HRRR AND THE RAP SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE LOCATION OF
THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD SERVE AS MORE OF AN ADDED DETERRENT TO
DEVELOPMENT...SO COVERAGE SHOULD BE EVEN LOWER THAN YESTERDAY/S
SCANT OFFERINGS...BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT THINK IT WILL SUPPRESS ALL
ACTIVITY. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF AFTERNOON
HEATING.

UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL SITES WITH SOME
FAIR WEATHER CU 18-00Z. LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER
LOW LEVEL FLOW THAN PAST FEW DAYS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...AND
MOST OF TOMORROW. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO RIVAL THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY...THEREFORE AREAL
OUTLINE OF HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT ALONE. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT
ASSESS POTENTIAL AREAL OUTLINE ADJUSTMENTS FOR WEDNESDAY. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SOME LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE A MODEST
RETROGRADE...HOWEVER UPCOMING RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS
THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COMPROMISED. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK INTO
THE AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FA BY LATER IN THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL OFFER AT LEAST SOME AREAS A FEW DAYS OF RELIEF
FROM THE RECENT HEAT. TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEAN RIDGE POSITIONING MAY
STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST...THUS KEEPING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OUT
OF THE REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22



000
FXUS64 KTSA 281652
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1152 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TSRA MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW AR THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD AFFECT
FSM/FYV/XNA/ROG...BUT LOW ANTICIPATED COVERAGE MAKES THE OVERALL
CHANCE OF IMPACTS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...WHICH SHOULD SWITCH WINDS TO
A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT BVO AND PERHAPS TUL/RVS LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

YET ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON TODAY WITH UPPER RIDGE PRETTY
MUCH CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. SURFACE
MOISTURE HAS BEEN LOATHE TO COMPLETELY MIX OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THE LAST FEW DAYS...SO HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS
JUST A BIT...WHICH OF COURSE LEADS TO A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
THE FORECAST MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AS WELL. GOING HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT SO NO HEADLINE CHANGES FORTHCOMING.

BOTH THE HRRR AND THE RAP SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE LOCATION OF
THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD SERVE AS MORE OF AN ADDED DETERRENT TO
DEVELOPMENT...SO COVERAGE SHOULD BE EVEN LOWER THAN YESTERDAY/S
SCANT OFFERINGS...BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT THINK IT WILL SUPPRESS ALL
ACTIVITY. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF AFTERNOON
HEATING.

UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL SITES WITH SOME
FAIR WEATHER CU 18-00Z. LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER
LOW LEVEL FLOW THAN PAST FEW DAYS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...AND
MOST OF TOMORROW. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO RIVAL THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY...THEREFORE AREAL
OUTLINE OF HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT ALONE. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT
ASSESS POTENTIAL AREAL OUTLINE ADJUSTMENTS FOR WEDNESDAY. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SOME LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE A MODEST
RETROGRADE...HOWEVER UPCOMING RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS
THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COMPROMISED. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK INTO
THE AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FA BY LATER IN THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL OFFER AT LEAST SOME AREAS A FEW DAYS OF RELIEF
FROM THE RECENT HEAT. TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEAN RIDGE POSITIONING MAY
STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST...THUS KEEPING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OUT
OF THE REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS64 KOUN 281556 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1056 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ADDED ATOKA AND BRYAN COUNTIES TO THE HEAT ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ALSO...DELAYED RAIN CHANCES IN
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA UNTIL AFTER 5 PM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORE HOT AND SUNNY WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.

PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND HAVING HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 105 DEGREES...ADDED THE
DURANT AND ATOKA AREAS TO THE HEAT ADVISORY. THE REST OF THE
ADVISORY OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY OVERALL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY IN
MANY LOCATIONS...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT HIGHER.
HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY FORM NEAR A WEAK FRONT IN
FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA LATER TODAY. APPEARS THE EARLIEST TIMING
OF STORMS WOULD BE 5 PM...THUS DELAYED TIMING. STORM COVERAGE
APPEARS TO BE LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MOST PLACES
EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREAS CURRENTLY UNDER A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA IN SOME
PLACES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA SO DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR DEWPT AND TEMP TRENDS TO SEE IF ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED... BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF THE
ADVISORY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NW OK TODAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE
STALLING. INITIALLY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA AND STORM COVERAGE MAY NOT BE TOO GREAT
WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTER STILL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER... MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING WEST
LATER THIS WEEK WHICH MAY PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP IN PARTS OF THE FA ESPECIALLY WITH THE
BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA. MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME DISTURBANCES MAY
MOVE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEK WHICH WILL ALSO AID IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS BUILDS THE HIGH FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT NW
FLOW DEVELOPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK SO RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT GO COMPLETELY AWAY
FOR SOME. THE ECMWF DOES NOT DEVELOP THE NW FLOW BUT DOES
OCCASIONALLY HAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW THAT MAY
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS AT TIMES.

THE FRONT... CLOUDS... AND RAIN WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS AT LEAST PART OF THE FA STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTING WEST...
THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  73  95  72 /   0   0  10  20
HOBART OK        101  74  98  72 /   0  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  99  75  98  75 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK          100  70  89  68 /  20  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     98  75  92  70 /   0  10  20  30
DURANT OK         98  75  98  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-048-052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281556 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1056 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ADDED ATOKA AND BRYAN COUNTIES TO THE HEAT ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ALSO...DELAYED RAIN CHANCES IN
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA UNTIL AFTER 5 PM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORE HOT AND SUNNY WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.

PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND HAVING HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 105 DEGREES...ADDED THE
DURANT AND ATOKA AREAS TO THE HEAT ADVISORY. THE REST OF THE
ADVISORY OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY OVERALL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY IN
MANY LOCATIONS...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT HIGHER.
HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY FORM NEAR A WEAK FRONT IN
FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA LATER TODAY. APPEARS THE EARLIEST TIMING
OF STORMS WOULD BE 5 PM...THUS DELAYED TIMING. STORM COVERAGE
APPEARS TO BE LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MOST PLACES
EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREAS CURRENTLY UNDER A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA IN SOME
PLACES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA SO DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR DEWPT AND TEMP TRENDS TO SEE IF ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED... BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF THE
ADVISORY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NW OK TODAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE
STALLING. INITIALLY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA AND STORM COVERAGE MAY NOT BE TOO GREAT
WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTER STILL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER... MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING WEST
LATER THIS WEEK WHICH MAY PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP IN PARTS OF THE FA ESPECIALLY WITH THE
BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA. MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME DISTURBANCES MAY
MOVE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEK WHICH WILL ALSO AID IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS BUILDS THE HIGH FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT NW
FLOW DEVELOPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK SO RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT GO COMPLETELY AWAY
FOR SOME. THE ECMWF DOES NOT DEVELOP THE NW FLOW BUT DOES
OCCASIONALLY HAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW THAT MAY
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS AT TIMES.

THE FRONT... CLOUDS... AND RAIN WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS AT LEAST PART OF THE FA STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTING WEST...
THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  73  95  72 /   0   0  10  20
HOBART OK        101  74  98  72 /   0  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  99  75  98  75 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK          100  70  89  68 /  20  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     98  75  92  70 /   0  10  20  30
DURANT OK         98  75  98  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-048-052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281556 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1056 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ADDED ATOKA AND BRYAN COUNTIES TO THE HEAT ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ALSO...DELAYED RAIN CHANCES IN
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA UNTIL AFTER 5 PM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORE HOT AND SUNNY WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.

PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND HAVING HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 105 DEGREES...ADDED THE
DURANT AND ATOKA AREAS TO THE HEAT ADVISORY. THE REST OF THE
ADVISORY OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY OVERALL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY IN
MANY LOCATIONS...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT HIGHER.
HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY FORM NEAR A WEAK FRONT IN
FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA LATER TODAY. APPEARS THE EARLIEST TIMING
OF STORMS WOULD BE 5 PM...THUS DELAYED TIMING. STORM COVERAGE
APPEARS TO BE LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MOST PLACES
EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREAS CURRENTLY UNDER A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA IN SOME
PLACES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA SO DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR DEWPT AND TEMP TRENDS TO SEE IF ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED... BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF THE
ADVISORY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NW OK TODAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE
STALLING. INITIALLY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA AND STORM COVERAGE MAY NOT BE TOO GREAT
WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTER STILL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER... MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING WEST
LATER THIS WEEK WHICH MAY PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP IN PARTS OF THE FA ESPECIALLY WITH THE
BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA. MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME DISTURBANCES MAY
MOVE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEK WHICH WILL ALSO AID IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS BUILDS THE HIGH FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT NW
FLOW DEVELOPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK SO RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT GO COMPLETELY AWAY
FOR SOME. THE ECMWF DOES NOT DEVELOP THE NW FLOW BUT DOES
OCCASIONALLY HAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW THAT MAY
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS AT TIMES.

THE FRONT... CLOUDS... AND RAIN WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS AT LEAST PART OF THE FA STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTING WEST...
THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  73  95  72 /   0   0  10  20
HOBART OK        101  74  98  72 /   0  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  99  75  98  75 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK          100  70  89  68 /  20  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     98  75  92  70 /   0  10  20  30
DURANT OK         98  75  98  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-048-052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KTSA 281508
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1008 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

YET ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON TODAY WITH UPPER RIDGE PRETTY
MUCH CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. SURFACE
MOISTURE HAS BEEN LOATHE TO COMPLETELY MIX OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THE LAST FEW DAYS...SO HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS
JUST A BIT...WHICH OF COURSE LEADS TO A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
THE FORECAST MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AS WELL. GOING HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT SO NO HEADLINE CHANGES FORTHCOMING.

BOTH THE HRRR AND THE RAP SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE LOCATION OF
THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD SERVE AS MORE OF AN ADDED DETERRENT TO
DEVELOPMENT...SO COVERAGE SHOULD BE EVEN LOWER THAN YESTERDAY/S
SCANT OFFERINGS...BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT THINK IT WILL SUPPRESS ALL
ACTIVITY. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF AFTERNOON
HEATING.

UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL SITES WITH SOME
FAIR WEATHER CU 18-00Z. LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER
LOW LEVEL FLOW THAN PAST FEW DAYS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...AND
MOST OF TOMORROW. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO RIVAL THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY...THEREFORE AREAL
OUTLINE OF HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT ALONE. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT
ASSESS POTENTIAL AREAL OUTLINE ADJUSTMENTS FOR WEDNESDAY. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SOME LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE A MODEST
RETROGRADE...HOWEVER UPCOMING RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS
THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COMPROMISED. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK INTO
THE AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FA BY LATER IN THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL OFFER AT LEAST SOME AREAS A FEW DAYS OF RELIEF
FROM THE RECENT HEAT. TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEAN RIDGE POSITIONING MAY
STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST...THUS KEEPING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OUT
OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  96  73 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   98  76  99  75 /  20   0  10  10
MLC   97  75  98  76 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   96  73  92  69 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   93  72  94  70 /  20   0  10  10
BYV   92  73  94  69 /  20   0  10  10
MKO   96  74  97  74 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   95  73  93  69 /   0   0  10  10
F10   96  74  96  75 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   98  73  99  76 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 281508
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1008 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

YET ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON TODAY WITH UPPER RIDGE PRETTY
MUCH CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. SURFACE
MOISTURE HAS BEEN LOATHE TO COMPLETELY MIX OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THE LAST FEW DAYS...SO HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS
JUST A BIT...WHICH OF COURSE LEADS TO A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
THE FORECAST MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AS WELL. GOING HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT SO NO HEADLINE CHANGES FORTHCOMING.

BOTH THE HRRR AND THE RAP SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE LOCATION OF
THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD SERVE AS MORE OF AN ADDED DETERRENT TO
DEVELOPMENT...SO COVERAGE SHOULD BE EVEN LOWER THAN YESTERDAY/S
SCANT OFFERINGS...BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT THINK IT WILL SUPPRESS ALL
ACTIVITY. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF AFTERNOON
HEATING.

UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL SITES WITH SOME
FAIR WEATHER CU 18-00Z. LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER
LOW LEVEL FLOW THAN PAST FEW DAYS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...AND
MOST OF TOMORROW. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO RIVAL THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY...THEREFORE AREAL
OUTLINE OF HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT ALONE. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT
ASSESS POTENTIAL AREAL OUTLINE ADJUSTMENTS FOR WEDNESDAY. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SOME LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE A MODEST
RETROGRADE...HOWEVER UPCOMING RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS
THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COMPROMISED. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK INTO
THE AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FA BY LATER IN THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL OFFER AT LEAST SOME AREAS A FEW DAYS OF RELIEF
FROM THE RECENT HEAT. TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEAN RIDGE POSITIONING MAY
STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST...THUS KEEPING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OUT
OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  96  73 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   98  76  99  75 /  20   0  10  10
MLC   97  75  98  76 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   96  73  92  69 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   93  72  94  70 /  20   0  10  10
BYV   92  73  94  69 /  20   0  10  10
MKO   96  74  97  74 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   95  73  93  69 /   0   0  10  10
F10   96  74  96  75 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   98  73  99  76 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07



000
FXUS64 KTSA 281508
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1008 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

YET ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON TODAY WITH UPPER RIDGE PRETTY
MUCH CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. SURFACE
MOISTURE HAS BEEN LOATHE TO COMPLETELY MIX OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THE LAST FEW DAYS...SO HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS
JUST A BIT...WHICH OF COURSE LEADS TO A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
THE FORECAST MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AS WELL. GOING HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT SO NO HEADLINE CHANGES FORTHCOMING.

BOTH THE HRRR AND THE RAP SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE LOCATION OF
THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD SERVE AS MORE OF AN ADDED DETERRENT TO
DEVELOPMENT...SO COVERAGE SHOULD BE EVEN LOWER THAN YESTERDAY/S
SCANT OFFERINGS...BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT THINK IT WILL SUPPRESS ALL
ACTIVITY. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF AFTERNOON
HEATING.

UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL SITES WITH SOME
FAIR WEATHER CU 18-00Z. LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER
LOW LEVEL FLOW THAN PAST FEW DAYS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...AND
MOST OF TOMORROW. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO RIVAL THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY...THEREFORE AREAL
OUTLINE OF HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT ALONE. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT
ASSESS POTENTIAL AREAL OUTLINE ADJUSTMENTS FOR WEDNESDAY. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SOME LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE A MODEST
RETROGRADE...HOWEVER UPCOMING RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS
THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COMPROMISED. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK INTO
THE AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FA BY LATER IN THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL OFFER AT LEAST SOME AREAS A FEW DAYS OF RELIEF
FROM THE RECENT HEAT. TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEAN RIDGE POSITIONING MAY
STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST...THUS KEEPING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OUT
OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  96  73 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   98  76  99  75 /  20   0  10  10
MLC   97  75  98  76 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   96  73  92  69 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   93  72  94  70 /  20   0  10  10
BYV   92  73  94  69 /  20   0  10  10
MKO   96  74  97  74 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   95  73  93  69 /   0   0  10  10
F10   96  74  96  75 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   98  73  99  76 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 281508
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1008 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

YET ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON TODAY WITH UPPER RIDGE PRETTY
MUCH CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. SURFACE
MOISTURE HAS BEEN LOATHE TO COMPLETELY MIX OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THE LAST FEW DAYS...SO HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS
JUST A BIT...WHICH OF COURSE LEADS TO A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
THE FORECAST MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AS WELL. GOING HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT SO NO HEADLINE CHANGES FORTHCOMING.

BOTH THE HRRR AND THE RAP SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE LOCATION OF
THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD SERVE AS MORE OF AN ADDED DETERRENT TO
DEVELOPMENT...SO COVERAGE SHOULD BE EVEN LOWER THAN YESTERDAY/S
SCANT OFFERINGS...BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT THINK IT WILL SUPPRESS ALL
ACTIVITY. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF AFTERNOON
HEATING.

UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL SITES WITH SOME
FAIR WEATHER CU 18-00Z. LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER
LOW LEVEL FLOW THAN PAST FEW DAYS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...AND
MOST OF TOMORROW. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO RIVAL THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY...THEREFORE AREAL
OUTLINE OF HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT ALONE. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT
ASSESS POTENTIAL AREAL OUTLINE ADJUSTMENTS FOR WEDNESDAY. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SOME LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE A MODEST
RETROGRADE...HOWEVER UPCOMING RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS
THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COMPROMISED. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK INTO
THE AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FA BY LATER IN THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL OFFER AT LEAST SOME AREAS A FEW DAYS OF RELIEF
FROM THE RECENT HEAT. TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEAN RIDGE POSITIONING MAY
STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST...THUS KEEPING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OUT
OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  96  73 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   98  76  99  75 /  20   0  10  10
MLC   97  75  98  76 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   96  73  92  69 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   93  72  94  70 /  20   0  10  10
BYV   92  73  94  69 /  20   0  10  10
MKO   96  74  97  74 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   95  73  93  69 /   0   0  10  10
F10   96  74  96  75 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   98  73  99  76 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07



000
FXUS64 KTSA 281043
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
543 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL SITES WITH SOME
FAIR WEATHER CU 18-00Z. LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER
LOW LEVEL FLOW THAN PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...AND
MOST OF TOMORROW. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO RIVAL THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY...THEREFORE AREAL
OUTLINE OF HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT ALONE. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT
ASSESS POTENTIAL AREAL OUTLINE ADJUSTMENTS FOR WEDNESDAY. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SOME LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE A MODEST
RETROGRADE...HOWEVER UPCOMING RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS
THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COMPROMISED. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK INTO
THE AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FA BY LATER IN THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL OFFER AT LEAST SOME AREAS A FEW DAYS OF RELIEF
FROM THE RECENT HEAT. TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEAN RIDGE POSITIONING MAY
STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST...THUS KEEPING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OUT
OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  96  73 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   98  76  99  75 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   97  75  98  76 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   96  73  92  69 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   93  72  94  70 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   92  73  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   96  74  97  74 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   95  73  93  69 /   0   0  10  10
F10   96  74  96  75 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   98  73  99  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ049-053>068-070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...69



000
FXUS64 KTSA 281043
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
543 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL SITES WITH SOME
FAIR WEATHER CU 18-00Z. LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER
LOW LEVEL FLOW THAN PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...AND
MOST OF TOMORROW. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO RIVAL THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY...THEREFORE AREAL
OUTLINE OF HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT ALONE. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT
ASSESS POTENTIAL AREAL OUTLINE ADJUSTMENTS FOR WEDNESDAY. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SOME LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE A MODEST
RETROGRADE...HOWEVER UPCOMING RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS
THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COMPROMISED. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK INTO
THE AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FA BY LATER IN THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL OFFER AT LEAST SOME AREAS A FEW DAYS OF RELIEF
FROM THE RECENT HEAT. TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEAN RIDGE POSITIONING MAY
STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST...THUS KEEPING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OUT
OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  96  73 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   98  76  99  75 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   97  75  98  76 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   96  73  92  69 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   93  72  94  70 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   92  73  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   96  74  97  74 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   95  73  93  69 /   0   0  10  10
F10   96  74  96  75 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   98  73  99  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ049-053>068-070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...69



000
FXUS64 KTSA 281043
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
543 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL SITES WITH SOME
FAIR WEATHER CU 18-00Z. LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER
LOW LEVEL FLOW THAN PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...AND
MOST OF TOMORROW. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO RIVAL THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY...THEREFORE AREAL
OUTLINE OF HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT ALONE. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT
ASSESS POTENTIAL AREAL OUTLINE ADJUSTMENTS FOR WEDNESDAY. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SOME LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE A MODEST
RETROGRADE...HOWEVER UPCOMING RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS
THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COMPROMISED. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK INTO
THE AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FA BY LATER IN THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL OFFER AT LEAST SOME AREAS A FEW DAYS OF RELIEF
FROM THE RECENT HEAT. TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEAN RIDGE POSITIONING MAY
STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST...THUS KEEPING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OUT
OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  96  73 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   98  76  99  75 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   97  75  98  76 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   96  73  92  69 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   93  72  94  70 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   92  73  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   96  74  97  74 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   95  73  93  69 /   0   0  10  10
F10   96  74  96  75 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   98  73  99  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ049-053>068-070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...69



000
FXUS64 KTSA 281043
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
543 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL SITES WITH SOME
FAIR WEATHER CU 18-00Z. LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER
LOW LEVEL FLOW THAN PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...AND
MOST OF TOMORROW. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO RIVAL THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY...THEREFORE AREAL
OUTLINE OF HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT ALONE. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT
ASSESS POTENTIAL AREAL OUTLINE ADJUSTMENTS FOR WEDNESDAY. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SOME LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE A MODEST
RETROGRADE...HOWEVER UPCOMING RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS
THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COMPROMISED. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK INTO
THE AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FA BY LATER IN THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL OFFER AT LEAST SOME AREAS A FEW DAYS OF RELIEF
FROM THE RECENT HEAT. TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEAN RIDGE POSITIONING MAY
STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST...THUS KEEPING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OUT
OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  96  73 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   98  76  99  75 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   97  75  98  76 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   96  73  92  69 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   93  72  94  70 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   92  73  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   96  74  97  74 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   95  73  93  69 /   0   0  10  10
F10   96  74  96  75 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   98  73  99  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ049-053>068-070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...69



000
FXUS64 KOUN 280826
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
326 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MOST PLACES
EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREAS CURRENTLY UNDER A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA IN SOME
PLACES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA SO DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR DEWPT AND TEMP TRENDS TO SEE IF ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED... BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF THE
ADVISORY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NW OK TODAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE
STALLING. INITIALLY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA AND STORM COVERAGE MAY NOT BE TOO GREAT
WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTER STILL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER... MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING WEST
LATER THIS WEEK WHICH MAY PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP IN PARTS OF THE FA ESPECIALLY WITH THE
BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA. MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME DISTURBANCES MAY
MOVE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEK WHICH WILL ALSO AID IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS BUILDS THE HIGH FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT NW
FLOW DEVELOPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK SO RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT GO COMPLETELY AWAY
FOR SOME. THE ECMWF DOES NOT DEVELOP THE NW FLOW BUT DOES
OCCASIONALLY HAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW THAT MAY
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS AT TIMES.

THE FRONT... CLOUDS... AND RAIN WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS AT LEAST PART OF THE FA STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTING WEST...
THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  73  95  72 /   0   0  10  20
HOBART OK        101  74  98  72 /   0  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  99  75  98  75 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK          100  70  89  68 /  20  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     98  75  92  70 /   0  10  20  30
DURANT OK         98  75  98  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25



000
FXUS64 KTSA 280808
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
308 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...AND
MOST OF TOMORROW. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO RIVAL THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY...THEREFORE AREAL
OUTLINE OF HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT ALONE. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT
ASSESS POTENTIAL AREAL OUTLINE ADJUSTMENTS FOR WEDNESDAY. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SOME LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE A MODEST
RETROGRADE...HOWEVER UPCOMING RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS
THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COMPROMISED. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK INTO
THE AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FA BY LATER IN THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL OFFER AT LEAST SOME AREAS A FEW DAYS OF RELIEF
FROM THE RECENT HEAT. TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEAN RIDGE POSITIONING MAY
STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST...THUS KEEPING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OUT
OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  96  73 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   98  76  99  75 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   97  75  98  76 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   96  73  92  69 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   93  72  94  70 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   92  73  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   96  74  97  74 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   95  73  93  69 /   0   0  10  10
F10   96  74  96  75 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   98  73  99  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ049-053>068-070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 280449
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
2806/2906Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 6Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF GAG/WWR...AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...MAINLY AFTER 6Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WWR/GAG LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND
A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MID TO LATE
WEEK.

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER HOT DAY. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST
TWO DAYS SHOW THAT WITH SUBSEQUENT HOT DAYS...WE DO SEEM TO BE
SLOWLY DRYING OUT. THIS HAS KEPT HEAT INDICES A BIT LOWER THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT
AREAS OF HIGHER MOISTURE HAVE RESULTED IN HIGHER HEAT
INDICES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THIS SLIGHT DRYING TREND
LOOKS TO PERSIST TOMORROW...EXPECT HEAT INDICES MOST PLACES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE
SOME MODELS DEPICT MOISTURE POOLING AND RESULTANT HIGHER HEAT
INDICES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT NEED
TO BE EXPANDED DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE TRENDS TOMORROW.

LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE EACH DAY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT ALONG WITH
AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND WEAKENING MID LEVEL
RIDGE SHOULD BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR A FEW
DAYS...THOUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MIGHT NOT
SEE AS MUCH OF A TAMP DOWN ON TEMPERATURES AS OTHERS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LIGHTNING.

FROM NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDING LOOKS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         74 101  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 100  69  90 /   0  20  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     76  98  76  92 /   0   0  20  20
DURANT OK         75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020.

TX...NONE.
&&




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280449
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
2806/2906Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 6Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF GAG/WWR...AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...MAINLY AFTER 6Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WWR/GAG LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND
A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MID TO LATE
WEEK.

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER HOT DAY. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST
TWO DAYS SHOW THAT WITH SUBSEQUENT HOT DAYS...WE DO SEEM TO BE
SLOWLY DRYING OUT. THIS HAS KEPT HEAT INDICES A BIT LOWER THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT
AREAS OF HIGHER MOISTURE HAVE RESULTED IN HIGHER HEAT
INDICES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THIS SLIGHT DRYING TREND
LOOKS TO PERSIST TOMORROW...EXPECT HEAT INDICES MOST PLACES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE
SOME MODELS DEPICT MOISTURE POOLING AND RESULTANT HIGHER HEAT
INDICES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT NEED
TO BE EXPANDED DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE TRENDS TOMORROW.

LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE EACH DAY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT ALONG WITH
AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND WEAKENING MID LEVEL
RIDGE SHOULD BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR A FEW
DAYS...THOUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MIGHT NOT
SEE AS MUCH OF A TAMP DOWN ON TEMPERATURES AS OTHERS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LIGHTNING.

FROM NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDING LOOKS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         74 101  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 100  69  90 /   0  20  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     76  98  76  92 /   0   0  20  20
DURANT OK         75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020.

TX...NONE.
&&



000
FXUS64 KOUN 280449
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
2806/2906Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 6Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF GAG/WWR...AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...MAINLY AFTER 6Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WWR/GAG LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND
A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MID TO LATE
WEEK.

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER HOT DAY. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST
TWO DAYS SHOW THAT WITH SUBSEQUENT HOT DAYS...WE DO SEEM TO BE
SLOWLY DRYING OUT. THIS HAS KEPT HEAT INDICES A BIT LOWER THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT
AREAS OF HIGHER MOISTURE HAVE RESULTED IN HIGHER HEAT
INDICES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THIS SLIGHT DRYING TREND
LOOKS TO PERSIST TOMORROW...EXPECT HEAT INDICES MOST PLACES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE
SOME MODELS DEPICT MOISTURE POOLING AND RESULTANT HIGHER HEAT
INDICES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT NEED
TO BE EXPANDED DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE TRENDS TOMORROW.

LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE EACH DAY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT ALONG WITH
AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND WEAKENING MID LEVEL
RIDGE SHOULD BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR A FEW
DAYS...THOUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MIGHT NOT
SEE AS MUCH OF A TAMP DOWN ON TEMPERATURES AS OTHERS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LIGHTNING.

FROM NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDING LOOKS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         74 101  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 100  69  90 /   0  20  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     76  98  76  92 /   0   0  20  20
DURANT OK         75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020.

TX...NONE.
&&




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280449
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
2806/2906Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 6Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF GAG/WWR...AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...MAINLY AFTER 6Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WWR/GAG LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND
A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MID TO LATE
WEEK.

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER HOT DAY. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST
TWO DAYS SHOW THAT WITH SUBSEQUENT HOT DAYS...WE DO SEEM TO BE
SLOWLY DRYING OUT. THIS HAS KEPT HEAT INDICES A BIT LOWER THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT
AREAS OF HIGHER MOISTURE HAVE RESULTED IN HIGHER HEAT
INDICES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THIS SLIGHT DRYING TREND
LOOKS TO PERSIST TOMORROW...EXPECT HEAT INDICES MOST PLACES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE
SOME MODELS DEPICT MOISTURE POOLING AND RESULTANT HIGHER HEAT
INDICES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT NEED
TO BE EXPANDED DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE TRENDS TOMORROW.

LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE EACH DAY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT ALONG WITH
AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND WEAKENING MID LEVEL
RIDGE SHOULD BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR A FEW
DAYS...THOUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MIGHT NOT
SEE AS MUCH OF A TAMP DOWN ON TEMPERATURES AS OTHERS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LIGHTNING.

FROM NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDING LOOKS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         74 101  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 100  69  90 /   0  20  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     76  98  76  92 /   0   0  20  20
DURANT OK         75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020.

TX...NONE.
&&



000
FXUS64 KTSA 280433
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1133 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL TWEAKS. ANOTHER HOT NIGHT TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DAY MUCH LIKE TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH
THE VALID PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HEAT INDICES HAD REACHED BETWEEN
105-110 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...WITH EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RISING BETWEEN 110-115. AS
DAYTIME HEATING REACHES ITS MAXIMUM...A FEW ISOLATED PULSE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. ANY SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN REACH JUST AT OR ABOVE CRITERIA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A
FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...COULD REACH
INTO THE LOWER 110S AGAIN. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE HOT
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND CONVECTION FORMS ALONG THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...10



000
FXUS64 KTSA 280433
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1133 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL TWEAKS. ANOTHER HOT NIGHT TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DAY MUCH LIKE TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH
THE VALID PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HEAT INDICES HAD REACHED BETWEEN
105-110 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...WITH EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RISING BETWEEN 110-115. AS
DAYTIME HEATING REACHES ITS MAXIMUM...A FEW ISOLATED PULSE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. ANY SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN REACH JUST AT OR ABOVE CRITERIA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A
FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...COULD REACH
INTO THE LOWER 110S AGAIN. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE HOT
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND CONVECTION FORMS ALONG THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 280253
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
953 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL TWEAKS. ANOTHER HOT NIGHT TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DAY MUCH LIKE TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH
THE VALID PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HEAT INDICES HAD REACHED BETWEEN
105-110 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...WITH EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RISING BETWEEN 110-115. AS
DAYTIME HEATING REACHES ITS MAXIMUM...A FEW ISOLATED PULSE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. ANY SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN REACH JUST AT OR ABOVE CRITERIA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A
FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...COULD REACH
INTO THE LOWER 110S AGAIN. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE HOT
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND CONVECTION FORMS ALONG THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  97  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   77  98  76  98 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   76  97  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   73  96  72  93 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   73  93  71  92 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   74  95  72  92 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   75  95  73  95 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   74  96  72  93 /   0   0   0  10
F10   75  95  74  95 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   74  98  73  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21




000
FXUS64 KTSA 280253
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
953 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL TWEAKS. ANOTHER HOT NIGHT TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DAY MUCH LIKE TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH
THE VALID PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HEAT INDICES HAD REACHED BETWEEN
105-110 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...WITH EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RISING BETWEEN 110-115. AS
DAYTIME HEATING REACHES ITS MAXIMUM...A FEW ISOLATED PULSE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. ANY SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN REACH JUST AT OR ABOVE CRITERIA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A
FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...COULD REACH
INTO THE LOWER 110S AGAIN. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE HOT
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND CONVECTION FORMS ALONG THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  97  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   77  98  76  98 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   76  97  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   73  96  72  93 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   73  93  71  92 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   74  95  72  92 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   75  95  73  95 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   74  96  72  93 /   0   0   0  10
F10   75  95  74  95 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   74  98  73  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21




000
FXUS64 KTSA 280253
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
953 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL TWEAKS. ANOTHER HOT NIGHT TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DAY MUCH LIKE TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH
THE VALID PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HEAT INDICES HAD REACHED BETWEEN
105-110 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...WITH EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RISING BETWEEN 110-115. AS
DAYTIME HEATING REACHES ITS MAXIMUM...A FEW ISOLATED PULSE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. ANY SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN REACH JUST AT OR ABOVE CRITERIA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A
FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...COULD REACH
INTO THE LOWER 110S AGAIN. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE HOT
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND CONVECTION FORMS ALONG THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  97  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   77  98  76  98 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   76  97  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   73  96  72  93 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   73  93  71  92 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   74  95  72  92 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   75  95  73  95 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   74  96  72  93 /   0   0   0  10
F10   75  95  74  95 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   74  98  73  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21




000
FXUS64 KTSA 280253
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
953 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL TWEAKS. ANOTHER HOT NIGHT TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DAY MUCH LIKE TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH
THE VALID PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HEAT INDICES HAD REACHED BETWEEN
105-110 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...WITH EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RISING BETWEEN 110-115. AS
DAYTIME HEATING REACHES ITS MAXIMUM...A FEW ISOLATED PULSE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. ANY SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN REACH JUST AT OR ABOVE CRITERIA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A
FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...COULD REACH
INTO THE LOWER 110S AGAIN. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE HOT
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND CONVECTION FORMS ALONG THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  97  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   77  98  76  98 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   76  97  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   73  96  72  93 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   73  93  71  92 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   74  95  72  92 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   75  95  73  95 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   74  96  72  93 /   0   0   0  10
F10   75  95  74  95 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   74  98  73  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21




000
FXUS64 KOUN 272340
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WWR/GAG LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND
A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MID TO LATE
WEEK.

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER HOT DAY. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST
TWO DAYS SHOW THAT WITH SUBSEQUENT HOT DAYS...WE DO SEEM TO BE
SLOWLY DRYING OUT. THIS HAS KEPT HEAT INDICES A BIT LOWER THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT
AREAS OF HIGHER MOISTURE HAVE RESULTED IN HIGHER HEAT
INDICES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THIS SLIGHT DRYING TREND
LOOKS TO PERSIST TOMORROW...EXPECT HEAT INDICES MOST PLACES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE
SOME MODELS DEPICT MOISTURE POOLING AND RESULTANT HIGHER HEAT
INDICES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT NEED
TO BE EXPANDED DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE TRENDS TOMORROW.

LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE EACH DAY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT ALONG WITH
AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND WEAKENING MID LEVEL
RIDGE SHOULD BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR A FEW
DAYS...THOUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MIGHT NOT
SEE AS MUCH OF A TAMP DOWN ON TEMPERATURES AS OTHERS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LIGHTNING.

FROM NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDING LOOKS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         74 101  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 100  69  90 /   0  20  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     76  98  76  92 /   0   0  20  20
DURANT OK         75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ013-018>020-
     024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 272340
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WWR/GAG LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND
A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MID TO LATE
WEEK.

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER HOT DAY. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST
TWO DAYS SHOW THAT WITH SUBSEQUENT HOT DAYS...WE DO SEEM TO BE
SLOWLY DRYING OUT. THIS HAS KEPT HEAT INDICES A BIT LOWER THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT
AREAS OF HIGHER MOISTURE HAVE RESULTED IN HIGHER HEAT
INDICES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THIS SLIGHT DRYING TREND
LOOKS TO PERSIST TOMORROW...EXPECT HEAT INDICES MOST PLACES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE
SOME MODELS DEPICT MOISTURE POOLING AND RESULTANT HIGHER HEAT
INDICES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT NEED
TO BE EXPANDED DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE TRENDS TOMORROW.

LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE EACH DAY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT ALONG WITH
AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND WEAKENING MID LEVEL
RIDGE SHOULD BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR A FEW
DAYS...THOUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MIGHT NOT
SEE AS MUCH OF A TAMP DOWN ON TEMPERATURES AS OTHERS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LIGHTNING.

FROM NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDING LOOKS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         74 101  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 100  69  90 /   0  20  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     76  98  76  92 /   0   0  20  20
DURANT OK         75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ013-018>020-
     024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 272310
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
610 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH
THE VALID PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HEAT INDICES HAD REACHED BETWEEN
105-110 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...WITH EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RISING BETWEEN 110-115. AS
DAYTIME HEATING REACHES ITS MAXIMUM...A FEW ISOLATED PULSE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. ANY SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN REACH JUST AT OR ABOVE CRITERIA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A
FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...COULD REACH
INTO THE LOWER 110S AGAIN. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE HOT
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND CONVECTION FORMS ALONG THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10



000
FXUS64 KTSA 272310
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
610 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH
THE VALID PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HEAT INDICES HAD REACHED BETWEEN
105-110 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...WITH EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RISING BETWEEN 110-115. AS
DAYTIME HEATING REACHES ITS MAXIMUM...A FEW ISOLATED PULSE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. ANY SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN REACH JUST AT OR ABOVE CRITERIA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A
FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...COULD REACH
INTO THE LOWER 110S AGAIN. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE HOT
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND CONVECTION FORMS ALONG THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 272100
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
400 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HEAT INDICES HAD REACHED BETWEEN
105-110 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...WITH EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RISING BETWEEN 110-115. AS
DAYTIME HEATING REACHES ITS MAXIMUM...A FEW ISOLATED PULSE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. ANY SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN REACH JUST AT OR ABOVE CRITERIA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A
FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...COULD REACH
INTO THE LOWER 110S AGAIN. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE HOT
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND CONVECTION FORMS ALONG THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  97  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   77  98  76  98 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   76  97  74  97 /  10   0   0  10
BVO   73  96  72  93 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   73  93  71  92 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   74  95  72  92 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   75  95  73  95 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   74  96  72  93 /   0   0   0  10
F10   75  95  74  95 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   74  98  73  98 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....16



000
FXUS64 KTSA 272100
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
400 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HEAT INDICES HAD REACHED BETWEEN
105-110 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...WITH EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RISING BETWEEN 110-115. AS
DAYTIME HEATING REACHES ITS MAXIMUM...A FEW ISOLATED PULSE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. ANY SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN REACH JUST AT OR ABOVE CRITERIA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A
FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...COULD REACH
INTO THE LOWER 110S AGAIN. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE HOT
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND CONVECTION FORMS ALONG THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  97  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   77  98  76  98 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   76  97  74  97 /  10   0   0  10
BVO   73  96  72  93 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   73  93  71  92 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   74  95  72  92 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   75  95  73  95 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   74  96  72  93 /   0   0   0  10
F10   75  95  74  95 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   74  98  73  98 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....16




000
FXUS64 KOUN 272016
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
316 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MID TO LATE
WEEK.

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER HOT DAY. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST
TWO DAYS SHOW THAT WITH SUBSEQUENT HOT DAYS...WE DO SEEM TO BE
SLOWLY DRYING OUT. THIS HAS KEPT HEAT INDICES A BIT LOWER THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT
AREAS OF HIGHER MOISTURE HAVE RESULTED IN HIGHER HEAT
INDICES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THIS SLIGHT DRYING TREND
LOOKS TO PERSIST TOMORROW...EXPECT HEAT INDICES MOST PLACES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE
SOME MODELS DEPICT MOISTURE POOLING AND RESULTANT HIGHER HEAT
INDICES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT NEED
TO BE EXPANDED DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE TRENDS TOMORROW.

LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE EACH DAY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT ALONG WITH
AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND WEAKENING MID LEVEL
RIDGE SHOULD BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR A FEW
DAYS...THOUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MIGHT NOT
SEE AS MUCH OF A TAMP DOWN ON TEMPERATURES AS OTHERS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LIGHTNING.

FROM NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDING LOOKS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         74 101  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 100  69  90 /   0  20  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     76  98  76  92 /   0   0  20  20
DURANT OK         75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ013-018>020-
     024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 272016
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
316 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MID TO LATE
WEEK.

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER HOT DAY. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST
TWO DAYS SHOW THAT WITH SUBSEQUENT HOT DAYS...WE DO SEEM TO BE
SLOWLY DRYING OUT. THIS HAS KEPT HEAT INDICES A BIT LOWER THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT
AREAS OF HIGHER MOISTURE HAVE RESULTED IN HIGHER HEAT
INDICES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THIS SLIGHT DRYING TREND
LOOKS TO PERSIST TOMORROW...EXPECT HEAT INDICES MOST PLACES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE
SOME MODELS DEPICT MOISTURE POOLING AND RESULTANT HIGHER HEAT
INDICES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT NEED
TO BE EXPANDED DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE TRENDS TOMORROW.

LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE EACH DAY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT ALONG WITH
AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND WEAKENING MID LEVEL
RIDGE SHOULD BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR A FEW
DAYS...THOUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MIGHT NOT
SEE AS MUCH OF A TAMP DOWN ON TEMPERATURES AS OTHERS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LIGHTNING.

FROM NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDING LOOKS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         74 101  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 100  69  90 /   0  20  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     76  98  76  92 /   0   0  20  20
DURANT OK         75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ013-018>020-
     024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 272016
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
316 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MID TO LATE
WEEK.

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER HOT DAY. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST
TWO DAYS SHOW THAT WITH SUBSEQUENT HOT DAYS...WE DO SEEM TO BE
SLOWLY DRYING OUT. THIS HAS KEPT HEAT INDICES A BIT LOWER THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT
AREAS OF HIGHER MOISTURE HAVE RESULTED IN HIGHER HEAT
INDICES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THIS SLIGHT DRYING TREND
LOOKS TO PERSIST TOMORROW...EXPECT HEAT INDICES MOST PLACES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE
SOME MODELS DEPICT MOISTURE POOLING AND RESULTANT HIGHER HEAT
INDICES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT NEED
TO BE EXPANDED DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE TRENDS TOMORROW.

LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE EACH DAY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT ALONG WITH
AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND WEAKENING MID LEVEL
RIDGE SHOULD BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR A FEW
DAYS...THOUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MIGHT NOT
SEE AS MUCH OF A TAMP DOWN ON TEMPERATURES AS OTHERS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LIGHTNING.

FROM NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDING LOOKS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         74 101  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 100  69  90 /   0  20  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     76  98  76  92 /   0   0  20  20
DURANT OK         75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ013-018>020-
     024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 272016
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
316 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MID TO LATE
WEEK.

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER HOT DAY. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST
TWO DAYS SHOW THAT WITH SUBSEQUENT HOT DAYS...WE DO SEEM TO BE
SLOWLY DRYING OUT. THIS HAS KEPT HEAT INDICES A BIT LOWER THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT
AREAS OF HIGHER MOISTURE HAVE RESULTED IN HIGHER HEAT
INDICES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THIS SLIGHT DRYING TREND
LOOKS TO PERSIST TOMORROW...EXPECT HEAT INDICES MOST PLACES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE
SOME MODELS DEPICT MOISTURE POOLING AND RESULTANT HIGHER HEAT
INDICES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT NEED
TO BE EXPANDED DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE TRENDS TOMORROW.

LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE EACH DAY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT ALONG WITH
AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND WEAKENING MID LEVEL
RIDGE SHOULD BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR A FEW
DAYS...THOUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MIGHT NOT
SEE AS MUCH OF A TAMP DOWN ON TEMPERATURES AS OTHERS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LIGHTNING.

FROM NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDING LOOKS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         74 101  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 100  69  90 /   0  20  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     76  98  76  92 /   0   0  20  20
DURANT OK         75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ013-018>020-
     024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 271747
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DURING THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

UPDATE...
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 81
INCLUDING THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO. AFTERNOON HIGHS AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WERE TWEAKED SLIGHTLY...GENERALLY TO INCREASE THEM.

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WILL OCCUR TODAY.

BASED ON 10 AM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DEPICTING
INCREASES OF 1 TO 3 DEGREES COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY IN
MANY AREAS...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE OF HEAT INDICES REACHING
THE 105 DEGREE MARK APPEARS TO BE INCREASING.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  96  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         74 101  73  99 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           73 100  71  91 /  10  10  20  40
PONCA CITY OK     76  98  74  92 /  10   0  10  20
DURANT OK         75  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ013-018>020-
     024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271747
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DURING THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

UPDATE...
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 81
INCLUDING THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO. AFTERNOON HIGHS AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WERE TWEAKED SLIGHTLY...GENERALLY TO INCREASE THEM.

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WILL OCCUR TODAY.

BASED ON 10 AM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DEPICTING
INCREASES OF 1 TO 3 DEGREES COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY IN
MANY AREAS...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE OF HEAT INDICES REACHING
THE 105 DEGREE MARK APPEARS TO BE INCREASING.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  96  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         74 101  73  99 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           73 100  71  91 /  10  10  20  40
PONCA CITY OK     76  98  74  92 /  10   0  10  20
DURANT OK         75  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ013-018>020-
     024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84



000
FXUS64 KTSA 271714
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1214 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. ISOLD
TSRA POTENTIAL OVER IN WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT LIKELY TO
BE NEAR THE TAF SITES...THUS NO MENTION FOR THIS TAF FORECAST.
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS
OVER 15KTS ACROSS NE OK.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED AT 500MB IN THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED
HEATING ON THE TERRAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST HRRR/NAM SHOW THIS
SIGNAL. THUS...AN ISOLATED THUNDER POP HAS BEEN INSERTED INTO THE
FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE REQUIRED OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE FORECAST ELEMENTS.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND A
SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY MAY COME CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY DID SUNDAY BUT
MOST PLACES WILL COME UP SHORT.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER...BUT STILL LOW...CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR AREA WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
AND UPSLOPE CONVECTION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES A RUN AT OUR
AREA.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SEASONAL NORMALS...IN OTHER WORDS HOT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENCE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  77  98  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   97  76  97  74 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   93  73  93  71 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   92  74  95  72 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   96  75  95  73 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   95  74  96  72 /  10   0   0  10
F10   96  75  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   98  74  98  73 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30



000
FXUS64 KTSA 271714
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1214 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. ISOLD
TSRA POTENTIAL OVER IN WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT LIKELY TO
BE NEAR THE TAF SITES...THUS NO MENTION FOR THIS TAF FORECAST.
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS
OVER 15KTS ACROSS NE OK.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED AT 500MB IN THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED
HEATING ON THE TERRAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST HRRR/NAM SHOW THIS
SIGNAL. THUS...AN ISOLATED THUNDER POP HAS BEEN INSERTED INTO THE
FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE REQUIRED OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE FORECAST ELEMENTS.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND A
SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY MAY COME CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY DID SUNDAY BUT
MOST PLACES WILL COME UP SHORT.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER...BUT STILL LOW...CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR AREA WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
AND UPSLOPE CONVECTION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES A RUN AT OUR
AREA.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SEASONAL NORMALS...IN OTHER WORDS HOT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENCE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  77  98  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   97  76  97  74 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   93  73  93  71 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   92  74  95  72 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   96  75  95  73 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   95  74  96  72 /  10   0   0  10
F10   96  75  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   98  74  98  73 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30



000
FXUS64 KTSA 271714
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1214 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. ISOLD
TSRA POTENTIAL OVER IN WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT LIKELY TO
BE NEAR THE TAF SITES...THUS NO MENTION FOR THIS TAF FORECAST.
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS
OVER 15KTS ACROSS NE OK.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED AT 500MB IN THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED
HEATING ON THE TERRAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST HRRR/NAM SHOW THIS
SIGNAL. THUS...AN ISOLATED THUNDER POP HAS BEEN INSERTED INTO THE
FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE REQUIRED OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE FORECAST ELEMENTS.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND A
SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY MAY COME CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY DID SUNDAY BUT
MOST PLACES WILL COME UP SHORT.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER...BUT STILL LOW...CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR AREA WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
AND UPSLOPE CONVECTION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES A RUN AT OUR
AREA.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SEASONAL NORMALS...IN OTHER WORDS HOT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENCE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  77  98  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   97  76  97  74 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   93  73  93  71 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   92  74  95  72 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   96  75  95  73 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   95  74  96  72 /  10   0   0  10
F10   96  75  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   98  74  98  73 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30



000
FXUS64 KTSA 271714
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1214 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. ISOLD
TSRA POTENTIAL OVER IN WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT LIKELY TO
BE NEAR THE TAF SITES...THUS NO MENTION FOR THIS TAF FORECAST.
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS
OVER 15KTS ACROSS NE OK.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED AT 500MB IN THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED
HEATING ON THE TERRAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST HRRR/NAM SHOW THIS
SIGNAL. THUS...AN ISOLATED THUNDER POP HAS BEEN INSERTED INTO THE
FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE REQUIRED OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE FORECAST ELEMENTS.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND A
SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY MAY COME CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY DID SUNDAY BUT
MOST PLACES WILL COME UP SHORT.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER...BUT STILL LOW...CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR AREA WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
AND UPSLOPE CONVECTION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES A RUN AT OUR
AREA.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SEASONAL NORMALS...IN OTHER WORDS HOT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENCE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  77  98  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   97  76  97  74 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   93  73  93  71 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   92  74  95  72 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   96  75  95  73 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   95  74  96  72 /  10   0   0  10
F10   96  75  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   98  74  98  73 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30



000
FXUS64 KTSA 271714
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1214 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. ISOLD
TSRA POTENTIAL OVER IN WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT LIKELY TO
BE NEAR THE TAF SITES...THUS NO MENTION FOR THIS TAF FORECAST.
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS
OVER 15KTS ACROSS NE OK.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED AT 500MB IN THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED
HEATING ON THE TERRAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST HRRR/NAM SHOW THIS
SIGNAL. THUS...AN ISOLATED THUNDER POP HAS BEEN INSERTED INTO THE
FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE REQUIRED OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE FORECAST ELEMENTS.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND A
SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY MAY COME CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY DID SUNDAY BUT
MOST PLACES WILL COME UP SHORT.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER...BUT STILL LOW...CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR AREA WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
AND UPSLOPE CONVECTION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES A RUN AT OUR
AREA.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SEASONAL NORMALS...IN OTHER WORDS HOT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENCE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  77  98  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   97  76  97  74 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   93  73  93  71 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   92  74  95  72 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   96  75  95  73 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   95  74  96  72 /  10   0   0  10
F10   96  75  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   98  74  98  73 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 271714
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1214 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. ISOLD
TSRA POTENTIAL OVER IN WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT LIKELY TO
BE NEAR THE TAF SITES...THUS NO MENTION FOR THIS TAF FORECAST.
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS
OVER 15KTS ACROSS NE OK.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED AT 500MB IN THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED
HEATING ON THE TERRAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST HRRR/NAM SHOW THIS
SIGNAL. THUS...AN ISOLATED THUNDER POP HAS BEEN INSERTED INTO THE
FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE REQUIRED OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE FORECAST ELEMENTS.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND A
SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY MAY COME CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY DID SUNDAY BUT
MOST PLACES WILL COME UP SHORT.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER...BUT STILL LOW...CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR AREA WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
AND UPSLOPE CONVECTION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES A RUN AT OUR
AREA.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SEASONAL NORMALS...IN OTHER WORDS HOT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENCE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  77  98  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   97  76  97  74 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   93  73  93  71 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   92  74  95  72 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   96  75  95  73 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   95  74  96  72 /  10   0   0  10
F10   96  75  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   98  74  98  73 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 271610
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1110 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED AT 500MB IN THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED
HEATING ON THE TERRAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST HRRR/NAM SHOW THIS
SIGNAL. THUS...AN ISOLATED THUNDER POP HAS BEEN INSERTED INTO THE
FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE REQUIRED OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE FORECAST ELEMENTS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND A
SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY MAY COME CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY DID SUNDAY BUT
MOST PLACES WILL COME UP SHORT.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER...BUT STILL LOW...CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR AREA WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
AND UPSLOPE CONVECTION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES A RUN AT OUR
AREA.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SEASONAL NORMALS...IN OTHER WORDS HOT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENCE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  77  98  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   97  76  97  75 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   96  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   93  72  93  71 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   92  74  92  73 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   96  75  96  74 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   95  74  95  73 /  10   0   0  10
F10   96  75  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   98  75  98  74 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 271610
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1110 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED AT 500MB IN THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED
HEATING ON THE TERRAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST HRRR/NAM SHOW THIS
SIGNAL. THUS...AN ISOLATED THUNDER POP HAS BEEN INSERTED INTO THE
FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE REQUIRED OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE FORECAST ELEMENTS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND A
SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY MAY COME CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY DID SUNDAY BUT
MOST PLACES WILL COME UP SHORT.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER...BUT STILL LOW...CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR AREA WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
AND UPSLOPE CONVECTION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES A RUN AT OUR
AREA.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SEASONAL NORMALS...IN OTHER WORDS HOT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENCE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  77  98  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   97  76  97  75 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   96  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   93  72  93  71 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   92  74  92  73 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   96  75  96  74 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   95  74  95  73 /  10   0   0  10
F10   96  75  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   98  75  98  74 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 271544 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1044 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 81
INCLUDING THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO. AFTERNOON HIGHS AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WERE TWEAKED SLIGHTLY...GENERALLY TO INCREASE THEM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WILL OCCUR TODAY.

BASED ON 10 AM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DEPICTING
INCREASES OF 1 TO 3 DEGREES COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY IN
MANY AREAS...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE OF HEAT INDICES REACHING
THE 105 DEGREE MARK APPEARS TO BE INCREASING.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

UPDATE...
REMOVED RAIN CHANCES TODAY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS
TWEAKED SKY COVER.

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.

OLD COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS FALLEN APART IN KANSAS. ISOLATED STORMS
IN FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE DISSIPATED AND NO ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THUS...REMOVED RAIN CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

WILL CLOSELY MONITOR HEAT INDICES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS THIS
MORNING TO SEE IF A HEAT ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE ISSUED. AT THIS
TIME...DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ONE...BUT LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY
81 INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...PONCA CITY...ADA...AND ATOKA WOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH HEAT
INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
27/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15-17Z MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS WITH ONLY SLIGHT DECREASE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KANSAS MCS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. GREATER WAA
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH
WEAKER LLJ AND BAROCLINICITY AS YOUR WORK YOUR WAY SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. AS LLJ WEAKENS ALL RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
FORECAST TEMP/TD TRENDS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AOA 100 BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAVEAT BEING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIXES
BACK NORTH AS PROGD. IF IT DOESN`T...WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR BOUNDARY AND ELEVATE HEAT INDICES INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.

FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO LARGER PORTION OF CWA
THROUGH THE WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS STRONG UPPER S/WV PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-LATE WEEK IF CLOUDS CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH
AFTER OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  97  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        102  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK          100  73 100  71 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     96  76  98  74 /  10  10   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ013-018>020-
     024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 271544 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1044 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 81
INCLUDING THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO. AFTERNOON HIGHS AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WERE TWEAKED SLIGHTLY...GENERALLY TO INCREASE THEM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WILL OCCUR TODAY.

BASED ON 10 AM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DEPICTING
INCREASES OF 1 TO 3 DEGREES COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY IN
MANY AREAS...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE OF HEAT INDICES REACHING
THE 105 DEGREE MARK APPEARS TO BE INCREASING.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

UPDATE...
REMOVED RAIN CHANCES TODAY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS
TWEAKED SKY COVER.

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.

OLD COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS FALLEN APART IN KANSAS. ISOLATED STORMS
IN FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE DISSIPATED AND NO ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THUS...REMOVED RAIN CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

WILL CLOSELY MONITOR HEAT INDICES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS THIS
MORNING TO SEE IF A HEAT ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE ISSUED. AT THIS
TIME...DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ONE...BUT LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY
81 INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...PONCA CITY...ADA...AND ATOKA WOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH HEAT
INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
27/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15-17Z MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS WITH ONLY SLIGHT DECREASE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KANSAS MCS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. GREATER WAA
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH
WEAKER LLJ AND BAROCLINICITY AS YOUR WORK YOUR WAY SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. AS LLJ WEAKENS ALL RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
FORECAST TEMP/TD TRENDS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AOA 100 BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAVEAT BEING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIXES
BACK NORTH AS PROGD. IF IT DOESN`T...WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR BOUNDARY AND ELEVATE HEAT INDICES INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.

FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO LARGER PORTION OF CWA
THROUGH THE WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS STRONG UPPER S/WV PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-LATE WEEK IF CLOUDS CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH
AFTER OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  97  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        102  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK          100  73 100  71 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     96  76  98  74 /  10  10   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ013-018>020-
     024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 271544 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1044 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 81
INCLUDING THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO. AFTERNOON HIGHS AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WERE TWEAKED SLIGHTLY...GENERALLY TO INCREASE THEM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WILL OCCUR TODAY.

BASED ON 10 AM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DEPICTING
INCREASES OF 1 TO 3 DEGREES COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY IN
MANY AREAS...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE OF HEAT INDICES REACHING
THE 105 DEGREE MARK APPEARS TO BE INCREASING.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

UPDATE...
REMOVED RAIN CHANCES TODAY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS
TWEAKED SKY COVER.

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.

OLD COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS FALLEN APART IN KANSAS. ISOLATED STORMS
IN FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE DISSIPATED AND NO ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THUS...REMOVED RAIN CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

WILL CLOSELY MONITOR HEAT INDICES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS THIS
MORNING TO SEE IF A HEAT ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE ISSUED. AT THIS
TIME...DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ONE...BUT LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY
81 INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...PONCA CITY...ADA...AND ATOKA WOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH HEAT
INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
27/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15-17Z MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS WITH ONLY SLIGHT DECREASE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KANSAS MCS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. GREATER WAA
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH
WEAKER LLJ AND BAROCLINICITY AS YOUR WORK YOUR WAY SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. AS LLJ WEAKENS ALL RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
FORECAST TEMP/TD TRENDS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AOA 100 BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAVEAT BEING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIXES
BACK NORTH AS PROGD. IF IT DOESN`T...WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR BOUNDARY AND ELEVATE HEAT INDICES INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.

FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO LARGER PORTION OF CWA
THROUGH THE WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS STRONG UPPER S/WV PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-LATE WEEK IF CLOUDS CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH
AFTER OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  97  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        102  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK          100  73 100  71 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     96  76  98  74 /  10  10   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ013-018>020-
     024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 271544 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1044 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 81
INCLUDING THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO. AFTERNOON HIGHS AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WERE TWEAKED SLIGHTLY...GENERALLY TO INCREASE THEM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WILL OCCUR TODAY.

BASED ON 10 AM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DEPICTING
INCREASES OF 1 TO 3 DEGREES COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY IN
MANY AREAS...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE OF HEAT INDICES REACHING
THE 105 DEGREE MARK APPEARS TO BE INCREASING.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

UPDATE...
REMOVED RAIN CHANCES TODAY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS
TWEAKED SKY COVER.

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.

OLD COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS FALLEN APART IN KANSAS. ISOLATED STORMS
IN FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE DISSIPATED AND NO ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THUS...REMOVED RAIN CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

WILL CLOSELY MONITOR HEAT INDICES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS THIS
MORNING TO SEE IF A HEAT ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE ISSUED. AT THIS
TIME...DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ONE...BUT LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY
81 INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...PONCA CITY...ADA...AND ATOKA WOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH HEAT
INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
27/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15-17Z MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS WITH ONLY SLIGHT DECREASE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KANSAS MCS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. GREATER WAA
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH
WEAKER LLJ AND BAROCLINICITY AS YOUR WORK YOUR WAY SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. AS LLJ WEAKENS ALL RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
FORECAST TEMP/TD TRENDS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AOA 100 BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAVEAT BEING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIXES
BACK NORTH AS PROGD. IF IT DOESN`T...WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR BOUNDARY AND ELEVATE HEAT INDICES INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.

FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO LARGER PORTION OF CWA
THROUGH THE WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS STRONG UPPER S/WV PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-LATE WEEK IF CLOUDS CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH
AFTER OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  97  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        102  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK          100  73 100  71 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     96  76  98  74 /  10  10   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ013-018>020-
     024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 271334 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
834 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
REMOVED RAIN CHANCES TODAY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS
TWEAKED SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.

OLD COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS FALLEN APART IN KANSAS. ISOLATED STORMS
IN FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE DISSIPATED AND NO ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THUS...REMOVED RAIN CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

WILL CLOSELY MONITOR HEAT INDICES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS THIS
MORNING TO SEE IF A HEAT ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE ISSUED. AT THIS
TIME...DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ONE...BUT LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY
81 INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...PONCA CITY...ADA...AND ATOKA WOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH HEAT
INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
27/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15-17Z MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS WITH ONLY SLIGHT DECREASE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KANSAS MCS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. GREATER WAA
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH
WEAKER LLJ AND BAROCLINICITY AS YOUR WORK YOUR WAY SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. AS LLJ WEAKENS ALL RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
FORECAST TEMP/TD TRENDS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AOA 100 BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAVEAT BEING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIXES
BACK NORTH AS PROGD. IF IT DOESN`T...WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR BOUNDARY AND ELEVATE HEAT INDICES INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.

FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO LARGER PORTION OF CWA
THROUGH THE WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS STRONG UPPER S/WV PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-LATE WEEK IF CLOUDS CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH
AFTER OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        101  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           99  73 100  71 /  10  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     97  76  98  74 /  10  10   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271334 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
834 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
REMOVED RAIN CHANCES TODAY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS
TWEAKED SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.

OLD COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS FALLEN APART IN KANSAS. ISOLATED STORMS
IN FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE DISSIPATED AND NO ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THUS...REMOVED RAIN CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

WILL CLOSELY MONITOR HEAT INDICES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS THIS
MORNING TO SEE IF A HEAT ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE ISSUED. AT THIS
TIME...DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ONE...BUT LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY
81 INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...PONCA CITY...ADA...AND ATOKA WOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH HEAT
INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
27/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15-17Z MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS WITH ONLY SLIGHT DECREASE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KANSAS MCS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. GREATER WAA
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH
WEAKER LLJ AND BAROCLINICITY AS YOUR WORK YOUR WAY SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. AS LLJ WEAKENS ALL RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
FORECAST TEMP/TD TRENDS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AOA 100 BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAVEAT BEING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIXES
BACK NORTH AS PROGD. IF IT DOESN`T...WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR BOUNDARY AND ELEVATE HEAT INDICES INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.

FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO LARGER PORTION OF CWA
THROUGH THE WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS STRONG UPPER S/WV PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-LATE WEEK IF CLOUDS CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH
AFTER OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        101  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           99  73 100  71 /  10  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     97  76  98  74 /  10  10   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271334 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
834 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
REMOVED RAIN CHANCES TODAY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS
TWEAKED SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.

OLD COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS FALLEN APART IN KANSAS. ISOLATED STORMS
IN FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE DISSIPATED AND NO ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THUS...REMOVED RAIN CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

WILL CLOSELY MONITOR HEAT INDICES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS THIS
MORNING TO SEE IF A HEAT ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE ISSUED. AT THIS
TIME...DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ONE...BUT LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY
81 INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...PONCA CITY...ADA...AND ATOKA WOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH HEAT
INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
27/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15-17Z MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS WITH ONLY SLIGHT DECREASE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KANSAS MCS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. GREATER WAA
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH
WEAKER LLJ AND BAROCLINICITY AS YOUR WORK YOUR WAY SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. AS LLJ WEAKENS ALL RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
FORECAST TEMP/TD TRENDS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AOA 100 BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAVEAT BEING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIXES
BACK NORTH AS PROGD. IF IT DOESN`T...WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR BOUNDARY AND ELEVATE HEAT INDICES INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.

FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO LARGER PORTION OF CWA
THROUGH THE WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS STRONG UPPER S/WV PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-LATE WEEK IF CLOUDS CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH
AFTER OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        101  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           99  73 100  71 /  10  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     97  76  98  74 /  10  10   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 271141
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
27/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15-17Z MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS WITH ONLY SLIGHT DECREASE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KANSAS MCS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. GREATER WAA
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH
WEAKER LLJ AND BAROCLINICITY AS YOUR WORK YOUR WAY SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. AS LLJ WEAKENS ALL RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
FORECAST TEMP/TD TRENDS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AOA 100 BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAVEAT BEING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIXES
BACK NORTH AS PROGD. IF IT DOESN`T...WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR BOUNDARY AND ELEVATE HEAT INDICES INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.

FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO LARGER PORTION OF CWA
THROUGH THE WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS STRONG UPPER S/WV PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-LATE WEEK IF CLOUDS CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH
AFTER OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        101  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           99  73 100  71 /  30  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     97  76  98  74 /  20  10   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$
25/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271141
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
27/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15-17Z MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS WITH ONLY SLIGHT DECREASE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KANSAS MCS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. GREATER WAA
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH
WEAKER LLJ AND BAROCLINICITY AS YOUR WORK YOUR WAY SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. AS LLJ WEAKENS ALL RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
FORECAST TEMP/TD TRENDS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AOA 100 BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAVEAT BEING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIXES
BACK NORTH AS PROGD. IF IT DOESN`T...WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR BOUNDARY AND ELEVATE HEAT INDICES INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.

FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO LARGER PORTION OF CWA
THROUGH THE WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS STRONG UPPER S/WV PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-LATE WEEK IF CLOUDS CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH
AFTER OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        101  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           99  73 100  71 /  30  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     97  76  98  74 /  20  10   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$
25/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 271141
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
27/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15-17Z MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS WITH ONLY SLIGHT DECREASE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KANSAS MCS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. GREATER WAA
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH
WEAKER LLJ AND BAROCLINICITY AS YOUR WORK YOUR WAY SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. AS LLJ WEAKENS ALL RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
FORECAST TEMP/TD TRENDS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AOA 100 BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAVEAT BEING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIXES
BACK NORTH AS PROGD. IF IT DOESN`T...WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR BOUNDARY AND ELEVATE HEAT INDICES INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.

FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO LARGER PORTION OF CWA
THROUGH THE WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS STRONG UPPER S/WV PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-LATE WEEK IF CLOUDS CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH
AFTER OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        101  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           99  73 100  71 /  30  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     97  76  98  74 /  20  10   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$
25/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271141
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
27/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15-17Z MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS WITH ONLY SLIGHT DECREASE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KANSAS MCS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. GREATER WAA
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH
WEAKER LLJ AND BAROCLINICITY AS YOUR WORK YOUR WAY SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. AS LLJ WEAKENS ALL RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
FORECAST TEMP/TD TRENDS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AOA 100 BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAVEAT BEING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIXES
BACK NORTH AS PROGD. IF IT DOESN`T...WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR BOUNDARY AND ELEVATE HEAT INDICES INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.

FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO LARGER PORTION OF CWA
THROUGH THE WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS STRONG UPPER S/WV PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-LATE WEEK IF CLOUDS CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH
AFTER OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        101  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           99  73 100  71 /  30  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     97  76  98  74 /  20  10   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$
25/11



000
FXUS64 KTSA 271109
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND A
SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY MAY COME CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY DID SUNDAY BUT
MOST PLACES WILL COME UP SHORT.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER...BUT STILL LOW...CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR AREA WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
AND UPSLOPE CONVECTION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES A RUN AT OUR
AREA.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SEASONAL NORMALS...IN OTHER WORDS HOT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENCE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ049-053>068-070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 271109
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND A
SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY MAY COME CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY DID SUNDAY BUT
MOST PLACES WILL COME UP SHORT.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER...BUT STILL LOW...CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR AREA WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
AND UPSLOPE CONVECTION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES A RUN AT OUR
AREA.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SEASONAL NORMALS...IN OTHER WORDS HOT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENCE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ049-053>068-070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 270901
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
401 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KANSAS MCS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. GREATER WAA
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH
WEAKER LLJ AND BAROCLINICITY AS YOUR WORK YOUR WAY SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. AS LLJ WEAKENS ALL RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
FORECAST TEMP/TD TRENDS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AOA 100 BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAVEAT BEING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIXES
BACK NORTH AS PROGD. IF IT DOESN`T...WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR BOUNDARY AND ELEVATE HEAT INDICES INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.

FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO LARGER PORTION OF CWA
THROUGH THE WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS STRONG UPPER S/WV PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-LATE WEEK IF CLOUDS CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH
AFTER OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        101  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  99  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           99  73 100  71 /  30  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     97  76  98  74 /  20  10   0  10
DURANT OK         97  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 270901
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
401 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KANSAS MCS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. GREATER WAA
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH
WEAKER LLJ AND BAROCLINICITY AS YOUR WORK YOUR WAY SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. AS LLJ WEAKENS ALL RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
FORECAST TEMP/TD TRENDS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AOA 100 BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAVEAT BEING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIXES
BACK NORTH AS PROGD. IF IT DOESN`T...WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR BOUNDARY AND ELEVATE HEAT INDICES INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.

FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO LARGER PORTION OF CWA
THROUGH THE WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS STRONG UPPER S/WV PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-LATE WEEK IF CLOUDS CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH
AFTER OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        101  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  99  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           99  73 100  71 /  30  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     97  76  98  74 /  20  10   0  10
DURANT OK         97  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 270901
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
401 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KANSAS MCS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. GREATER WAA
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH
WEAKER LLJ AND BAROCLINICITY AS YOUR WORK YOUR WAY SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. AS LLJ WEAKENS ALL RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
FORECAST TEMP/TD TRENDS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AOA 100 BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAVEAT BEING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIXES
BACK NORTH AS PROGD. IF IT DOESN`T...WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR BOUNDARY AND ELEVATE HEAT INDICES INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.

FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO LARGER PORTION OF CWA
THROUGH THE WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS STRONG UPPER S/WV PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-LATE WEEK IF CLOUDS CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH
AFTER OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        101  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  99  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           99  73 100  71 /  30  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     97  76  98  74 /  20  10   0  10
DURANT OK         97  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 270901
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
401 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KANSAS MCS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. GREATER WAA
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH
WEAKER LLJ AND BAROCLINICITY AS YOUR WORK YOUR WAY SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. AS LLJ WEAKENS ALL RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
FORECAST TEMP/TD TRENDS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AOA 100 BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAVEAT BEING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIXES
BACK NORTH AS PROGD. IF IT DOESN`T...WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR BOUNDARY AND ELEVATE HEAT INDICES INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.

FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO LARGER PORTION OF CWA
THROUGH THE WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS STRONG UPPER S/WV PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-LATE WEEK IF CLOUDS CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH
AFTER OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        101  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  99  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           99  73 100  71 /  30  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     97  76  98  74 /  20  10   0  10
DURANT OK         97  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11



000
FXUS64 KTSA 270853
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND A
SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY MAY COME CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY DID SUNDAY BUT
MOST PLACES WILL COME UP SHORT.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER...BUT STILL LOW...CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR AREA WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
AND UPSLOPE CONVECTION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES A RUN AT OUR
AREA.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SEASONAL NORMALS...IN OTHER WORDS HOT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENCE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  77  98  76 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   97  76  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   96  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   93  72  93  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   92  74  92  73 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   96  75  96  74 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   95  74  95  73 /  10   0   0  10
F10   96  75  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ049-053>068-070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE



000
FXUS64 KTSA 270853
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND A
SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY MAY COME CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY DID SUNDAY BUT
MOST PLACES WILL COME UP SHORT.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER...BUT STILL LOW...CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR AREA WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
AND UPSLOPE CONVECTION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES A RUN AT OUR
AREA.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SEASONAL NORMALS...IN OTHER WORDS HOT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENCE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  77  98  76 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   97  76  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   96  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   93  72  93  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   92  74  92  73 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   96  75  96  74 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   95  74  95  73 /  10   0   0  10
F10   96  75  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ049-053>068-070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE



000
FXUS64 KTSA 270853
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND A
SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY MAY COME CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY DID SUNDAY BUT
MOST PLACES WILL COME UP SHORT.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER...BUT STILL LOW...CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR AREA WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
AND UPSLOPE CONVECTION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES A RUN AT OUR
AREA.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SEASONAL NORMALS...IN OTHER WORDS HOT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENCE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  77  98  76 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   97  76  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   96  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   93  72  93  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   92  74  92  73 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   96  75  96  74 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   95  74  95  73 /  10   0   0  10
F10   96  75  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ049-053>068-070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE



000
FXUS64 KTSA 270853
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND A
SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY MAY COME CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY DID SUNDAY BUT
MOST PLACES WILL COME UP SHORT.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER...BUT STILL LOW...CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR AREA WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
AND UPSLOPE CONVECTION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES A RUN AT OUR
AREA.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SEASONAL NORMALS...IN OTHER WORDS HOT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENCE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  77  98  76 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   97  76  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   96  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   93  72  93  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   92  74  92  73 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   96  75  96  74 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   95  74  95  73 /  10   0   0  10
F10   96  75  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ049-053>068-070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE



000
FXUS64 KTSA 270438
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1138 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IS PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY
OF THE LAST SEVERAL EVENINGS... AS IS THE FORECAST. NO CHANGES ARE
NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATEST HEAT INDICES WERE REACHING CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN THEIR
COURSE. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DAYTIME HEATING BEING LIFTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS
ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH THESE PULSE TYPE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A STRONG WIND GUST.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY AND SET
UP OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE IS THAT EACH DAY DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE KEEPING HEAT INDICES FROM
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAT INDICES
GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES...POSSIBLY ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY... WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY REMAINING JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW.
MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TONIGHT WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH LATEST DATA TO
DETERMINE IF/WHERE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER
THE REGION INTO THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK WHILE A WAVE...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CWA. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT. WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD RETREAT BACK WESTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
COULD RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 270438
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1138 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IS PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY
OF THE LAST SEVERAL EVENINGS... AS IS THE FORECAST. NO CHANGES ARE
NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATEST HEAT INDICES WERE REACHING CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN THEIR
COURSE. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DAYTIME HEATING BEING LIFTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS
ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH THESE PULSE TYPE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A STRONG WIND GUST.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY AND SET
UP OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE IS THAT EACH DAY DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE KEEPING HEAT INDICES FROM
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAT INDICES
GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES...POSSIBLY ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY... WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY REMAINING JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW.
MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TONIGHT WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH LATEST DATA TO
DETERMINE IF/WHERE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER
THE REGION INTO THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK WHILE A WAVE...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CWA. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT. WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD RETREAT BACK WESTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
COULD RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 270438
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1138 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IS PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY
OF THE LAST SEVERAL EVENINGS... AS IS THE FORECAST. NO CHANGES ARE
NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATEST HEAT INDICES WERE REACHING CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN THEIR
COURSE. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DAYTIME HEATING BEING LIFTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS
ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH THESE PULSE TYPE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A STRONG WIND GUST.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY AND SET
UP OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE IS THAT EACH DAY DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE KEEPING HEAT INDICES FROM
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAT INDICES
GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES...POSSIBLY ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY... WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY REMAINING JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW.
MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TONIGHT WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH LATEST DATA TO
DETERMINE IF/WHERE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER
THE REGION INTO THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK WHILE A WAVE...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CWA. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT. WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD RETREAT BACK WESTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
COULD RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 270438
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1138 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IS PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY
OF THE LAST SEVERAL EVENINGS... AS IS THE FORECAST. NO CHANGES ARE
NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATEST HEAT INDICES WERE REACHING CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN THEIR
COURSE. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DAYTIME HEATING BEING LIFTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS
ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH THESE PULSE TYPE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A STRONG WIND GUST.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY AND SET
UP OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE IS THAT EACH DAY DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE KEEPING HEAT INDICES FROM
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAT INDICES
GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES...POSSIBLY ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY... WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY REMAINING JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW.
MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TONIGHT WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH LATEST DATA TO
DETERMINE IF/WHERE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER
THE REGION INTO THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK WHILE A WAVE...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CWA. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT. WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD RETREAT BACK WESTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
COULD RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 270438
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1138 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IS PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY
OF THE LAST SEVERAL EVENINGS... AS IS THE FORECAST. NO CHANGES ARE
NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATEST HEAT INDICES WERE REACHING CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN THEIR
COURSE. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DAYTIME HEATING BEING LIFTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS
ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH THESE PULSE TYPE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A STRONG WIND GUST.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY AND SET
UP OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE IS THAT EACH DAY DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE KEEPING HEAT INDICES FROM
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAT INDICES
GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES...POSSIBLY ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY... WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY REMAINING JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW.
MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TONIGHT WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH LATEST DATA TO
DETERMINE IF/WHERE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER
THE REGION INTO THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK WHILE A WAVE...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CWA. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT. WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD RETREAT BACK WESTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
COULD RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 270206
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
906 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IS PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY
OF THE LAST SEVERAL EVENINGS... AS IS THE FORECAST. NO CHANGES ARE
NECESSARY THIS EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATEST HEAT INDICES WERE REACHING CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN THEIR
COURSE. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DAYTIME HEATING BEING LIFTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS
ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH THESE PULSE TYPE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A STRONG WIND GUST.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY AND SET
UP OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE IS THAT EACH DAY DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE KEEPING HEAT INDICES FROM
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAT INDICES
GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES...POSSIBLY ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY... WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY REMAINING JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW.
MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TONIGHT WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH LATEST DATA TO
DETERMINE IF/WHERE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER
THE REGION INTO THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK WHILE A WAVE...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CWA. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT. WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD RETREAT BACK WESTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
COULD RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06



000
FXUS64 KTSA 270206
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
906 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IS PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY
OF THE LAST SEVERAL EVENINGS... AS IS THE FORECAST. NO CHANGES ARE
NECESSARY THIS EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATEST HEAT INDICES WERE REACHING CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN THEIR
COURSE. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DAYTIME HEATING BEING LIFTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS
ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH THESE PULSE TYPE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A STRONG WIND GUST.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY AND SET
UP OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE IS THAT EACH DAY DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE KEEPING HEAT INDICES FROM
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAT INDICES
GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES...POSSIBLY ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY... WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY REMAINING JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW.
MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TONIGHT WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH LATEST DATA TO
DETERMINE IF/WHERE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER
THE REGION INTO THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK WHILE A WAVE...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CWA. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT. WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD RETREAT BACK WESTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
COULD RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06




000
FXUS64 KTSA 270206
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
906 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IS PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY
OF THE LAST SEVERAL EVENINGS... AS IS THE FORECAST. NO CHANGES ARE
NECESSARY THIS EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATEST HEAT INDICES WERE REACHING CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN THEIR
COURSE. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DAYTIME HEATING BEING LIFTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS
ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH THESE PULSE TYPE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A STRONG WIND GUST.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY AND SET
UP OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE IS THAT EACH DAY DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE KEEPING HEAT INDICES FROM
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAT INDICES
GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES...POSSIBLY ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY... WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY REMAINING JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW.
MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TONIGHT WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH LATEST DATA TO
DETERMINE IF/WHERE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER
THE REGION INTO THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK WHILE A WAVE...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CWA. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT. WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD RETREAT BACK WESTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
COULD RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06




000
FXUS64 KTSA 270206
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
906 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IS PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY
OF THE LAST SEVERAL EVENINGS... AS IS THE FORECAST. NO CHANGES ARE
NECESSARY THIS EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATEST HEAT INDICES WERE REACHING CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN THEIR
COURSE. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DAYTIME HEATING BEING LIFTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS
ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH THESE PULSE TYPE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A STRONG WIND GUST.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY AND SET
UP OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE IS THAT EACH DAY DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE KEEPING HEAT INDICES FROM
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAT INDICES
GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES...POSSIBLY ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY... WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY REMAINING JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW.
MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TONIGHT WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH LATEST DATA TO
DETERMINE IF/WHERE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER
THE REGION INTO THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK WHILE A WAVE...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CWA. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT. WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD RETREAT BACK WESTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
COULD RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06




000
FXUS64 KTSA 270206
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
906 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IS PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY
OF THE LAST SEVERAL EVENINGS... AS IS THE FORECAST. NO CHANGES ARE
NECESSARY THIS EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATEST HEAT INDICES WERE REACHING CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN THEIR
COURSE. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DAYTIME HEATING BEING LIFTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS
ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH THESE PULSE TYPE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A STRONG WIND GUST.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY AND SET
UP OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE IS THAT EACH DAY DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE KEEPING HEAT INDICES FROM
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAT INDICES
GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES...POSSIBLY ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY... WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY REMAINING JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW.
MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TONIGHT WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH LATEST DATA TO
DETERMINE IF/WHERE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER
THE REGION INTO THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK WHILE A WAVE...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CWA. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT. WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD RETREAT BACK WESTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
COULD RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06




000
FXUS64 KTSA 270206
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
906 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IS PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY
OF THE LAST SEVERAL EVENINGS... AS IS THE FORECAST. NO CHANGES ARE
NECESSARY THIS EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATEST HEAT INDICES WERE REACHING CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN THEIR
COURSE. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DAYTIME HEATING BEING LIFTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS
ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH THESE PULSE TYPE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A STRONG WIND GUST.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY AND SET
UP OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE IS THAT EACH DAY DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE KEEPING HEAT INDICES FROM
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAT INDICES
GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES...POSSIBLY ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY... WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY REMAINING JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW.
MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TONIGHT WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH LATEST DATA TO
DETERMINE IF/WHERE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER
THE REGION INTO THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK WHILE A WAVE...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CWA. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT. WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD RETREAT BACK WESTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
COULD RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities