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000
FXUS64 KTSA 220529
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1129 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN LEADING TO IFR CONDITIONS MOST
AREAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA
WILL FINALLY SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY 18-21Z IN EASTERN
OK...AROUND 00Z IN NW AR WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 909 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND EVENTUALLY SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A FAIRLY
STRONG BUT MOISTURE STARVED UPPER SYSTEM GIVES WAY TO UPWARD
MOTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND FAST FLOW ALOFT
COMING INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH.

00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED A STRONG JET AT 500 MB FROM AROUND
SEATTLE INTO WESTERN COLORADO. SPEEDS OF 75 TO 100 KT WERE NOTED IN
THIS FLOW. 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 60 TO 70 METERS WERE COMMON FROM
MIDDLE WYOMING TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AHEAD OF THE JET SEGMENT. A
500 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF NEBRASKA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND 00Z TUESDAY IS WHERE DETAILS BECOME
IMPORTANT TO THE WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. OPTION ONE IS THE NEBRASKA UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT... END
OF STORY. OPTION TWO IS FAST FLOW REMAINS IN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AND DIGS OUT A NEW 500 MB LOW AROUND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. IF
THAT IS THE CASE THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCE OF NOTICEABLE
SNOW SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA. THE CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE OKLAHOMA UPPER LOW IS PROBABLE ...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THIS SECOND SCENARIO HAS SOME BACKING FROM THE
CURRENT DATA... GFS... GFS13... SREF... CANADIAN AND SEVERAL
MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE.

THEREFORE WE CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IN
A SMALL AREA OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
WITH A CHANCE OF A LITTLE SLEET OR SNOW MIX IN OTHER PARTS OF THE
REGION. A MORE AGGRESSIVE UPPER-LOW DEVELOPMENT THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED COULD RESULT IN MORE IMPORTANT WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME FAILURE OF THE OKLAHOMA SYSTEM
TO FORM WILL NEGATE ANYTHING IMPORTANT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KTSA 220529
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1129 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN LEADING TO IFR CONDITIONS MOST
AREAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA
WILL FINALLY SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY 18-21Z IN EASTERN
OK...AROUND 00Z IN NW AR WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 909 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND EVENTUALLY SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A FAIRLY
STRONG BUT MOISTURE STARVED UPPER SYSTEM GIVES WAY TO UPWARD
MOTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND FAST FLOW ALOFT
COMING INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH.

00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED A STRONG JET AT 500 MB FROM AROUND
SEATTLE INTO WESTERN COLORADO. SPEEDS OF 75 TO 100 KT WERE NOTED IN
THIS FLOW. 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 60 TO 70 METERS WERE COMMON FROM
MIDDLE WYOMING TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AHEAD OF THE JET SEGMENT. A
500 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF NEBRASKA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND 00Z TUESDAY IS WHERE DETAILS BECOME
IMPORTANT TO THE WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. OPTION ONE IS THE NEBRASKA UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT... END
OF STORY. OPTION TWO IS FAST FLOW REMAINS IN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AND DIGS OUT A NEW 500 MB LOW AROUND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. IF
THAT IS THE CASE THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCE OF NOTICEABLE
SNOW SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA. THE CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE OKLAHOMA UPPER LOW IS PROBABLE ...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THIS SECOND SCENARIO HAS SOME BACKING FROM THE
CURRENT DATA... GFS... GFS13... SREF... CANADIAN AND SEVERAL
MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE.

THEREFORE WE CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IN
A SMALL AREA OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
WITH A CHANCE OF A LITTLE SLEET OR SNOW MIX IN OTHER PARTS OF THE
REGION. A MORE AGGRESSIVE UPPER-LOW DEVELOPMENT THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED COULD RESULT IN MORE IMPORTANT WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME FAILURE OF THE OKLAHOMA SYSTEM
TO FORM WILL NEGATE ANYTHING IMPORTANT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KTSA 220529
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1129 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN LEADING TO IFR CONDITIONS MOST
AREAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA
WILL FINALLY SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY 18-21Z IN EASTERN
OK...AROUND 00Z IN NW AR WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 909 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND EVENTUALLY SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A FAIRLY
STRONG BUT MOISTURE STARVED UPPER SYSTEM GIVES WAY TO UPWARD
MOTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND FAST FLOW ALOFT
COMING INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH.

00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED A STRONG JET AT 500 MB FROM AROUND
SEATTLE INTO WESTERN COLORADO. SPEEDS OF 75 TO 100 KT WERE NOTED IN
THIS FLOW. 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 60 TO 70 METERS WERE COMMON FROM
MIDDLE WYOMING TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AHEAD OF THE JET SEGMENT. A
500 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF NEBRASKA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND 00Z TUESDAY IS WHERE DETAILS BECOME
IMPORTANT TO THE WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. OPTION ONE IS THE NEBRASKA UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT... END
OF STORY. OPTION TWO IS FAST FLOW REMAINS IN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AND DIGS OUT A NEW 500 MB LOW AROUND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. IF
THAT IS THE CASE THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCE OF NOTICEABLE
SNOW SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA. THE CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE OKLAHOMA UPPER LOW IS PROBABLE ...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THIS SECOND SCENARIO HAS SOME BACKING FROM THE
CURRENT DATA... GFS... GFS13... SREF... CANADIAN AND SEVERAL
MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE.

THEREFORE WE CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IN
A SMALL AREA OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
WITH A CHANCE OF A LITTLE SLEET OR SNOW MIX IN OTHER PARTS OF THE
REGION. A MORE AGGRESSIVE UPPER-LOW DEVELOPMENT THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED COULD RESULT IN MORE IMPORTANT WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME FAILURE OF THE OKLAHOMA SYSTEM
TO FORM WILL NEGATE ANYTHING IMPORTANT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KTSA 220529
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1129 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN LEADING TO IFR CONDITIONS MOST
AREAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA
WILL FINALLY SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY 18-21Z IN EASTERN
OK...AROUND 00Z IN NW AR WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 909 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND EVENTUALLY SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A FAIRLY
STRONG BUT MOISTURE STARVED UPPER SYSTEM GIVES WAY TO UPWARD
MOTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND FAST FLOW ALOFT
COMING INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH.

00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED A STRONG JET AT 500 MB FROM AROUND
SEATTLE INTO WESTERN COLORADO. SPEEDS OF 75 TO 100 KT WERE NOTED IN
THIS FLOW. 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 60 TO 70 METERS WERE COMMON FROM
MIDDLE WYOMING TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AHEAD OF THE JET SEGMENT. A
500 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF NEBRASKA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND 00Z TUESDAY IS WHERE DETAILS BECOME
IMPORTANT TO THE WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. OPTION ONE IS THE NEBRASKA UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT... END
OF STORY. OPTION TWO IS FAST FLOW REMAINS IN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AND DIGS OUT A NEW 500 MB LOW AROUND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. IF
THAT IS THE CASE THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCE OF NOTICEABLE
SNOW SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA. THE CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE OKLAHOMA UPPER LOW IS PROBABLE ...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THIS SECOND SCENARIO HAS SOME BACKING FROM THE
CURRENT DATA... GFS... GFS13... SREF... CANADIAN AND SEVERAL
MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE.

THEREFORE WE CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IN
A SMALL AREA OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
WITH A CHANCE OF A LITTLE SLEET OR SNOW MIX IN OTHER PARTS OF THE
REGION. A MORE AGGRESSIVE UPPER-LOW DEVELOPMENT THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED COULD RESULT IN MORE IMPORTANT WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME FAILURE OF THE OKLAHOMA SYSTEM
TO FORM WILL NEGATE ANYTHING IMPORTANT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14






  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOUN 220441
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1041 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THROUGH 18Z...THEN IS HIGH AFTERWARDS.

THE BIGGEST CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS WERE TO DECREASE THE
DURATION OF IFR CONDITIONS NEAR KLAW...KCSM...AND KHBR. MAINLY
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF KGAG-KCSM-KLAW UNTIL A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DOUBT CONDITIONS WILL
WORSEN TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS EXCEPT KGAG.

-DZ MAY CONTINUE NEAR KPNC THROUGH 18Z. A FEW -SHRA MAY MOVE
ACROSS OKLAHOMA 08-18Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS AS COVERAGE
SHOULD BE TOO SPARSE TO DIRECTLY AFFECT ANY GIVEN SITE.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. THIS TROUGH WILL REACH NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND
10Z...KSPS AND KLAW 11-13Z...KOKC AROUND 15Z...AND KPNC AROUND
17Z. ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND 23Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

UPDATE...
THE AREAS OF DRIZZLE TODAY HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS NO OBSERVATIONS SITES ARE REPORTING DRIZZLE ANY MORE. MAY SEE
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF DRIZZLE LATER SINCE NAM SHOWS SOME RISING
MOTION AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER OVERNIGHT... BUT SIGNAL IS
NOT AS STRONG AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS. SIGNAL IS ALSO NOT AS STRONG AS
FOR FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TOO MUCH IN MOST AREAS... ALTHOUGH
THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW AN AREA OF FOG TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST
BEHIND A WIND SHIFT MOVING ACROSS THAT AREA. HAVE EXPANDED THE
AREA THAT MENTIONS FOG TO INCLUDE THIS REGION... BUT OTHERWISE
HAVE CHANGED THE DESCRIPTOR FOR THE FOG/DRIZZLE FROM AREAS TO
PATCHY SINCE THE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TOO WIDESPREAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF CWA. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND PROGRESS QUICKLY OVER
THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP SCOUR OUT THE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND LARGE UPPER TROUGH
THAT WILL SKIRT THE REGION...MOST OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS STRONG JET ROUNDS BASE OF TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH
ELEVATED FRONTAL SURFACE. COLD CORE SIGNAL BEING PROGD TO AFFECT
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW. WE WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. WRF MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND VERY LIKELY OVERDONE. ECM KEEPS PRECIP UP IN
KANSAS WITH THE GFS IN BETWEEN.

OTHER THAN THE SMALL AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP...WINDS AND TEMPS WILL
BE THE MAIN SENSIBLE IMPACTS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALONG WITH A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION GETTING TO SEE THE SUN. BREEZY TOMORROW
MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEHIND THE FRONT. COOL WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMER WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CHRISTMAS DAY. BACK TO COOLER AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  57  36  45 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         38  58  35  46 /  10   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  42  62  39  50 /  10   0  20  10
GAGE OK           35  54  31  41 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     42  54  33  44 /  20  10  10  10
DURANT OK         45  60  41  51 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 220349 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
949 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AREAS OF DRIZZLE TODAY HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS NO OBSERVATIONS SITES ARE REPORTING DRIZZLE ANY MORE. MAY SEE
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF DRIZZLE LATER SINCE NAM SHOWS SOME RISING
MOTION AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER OVERNIGHT... BUT SIGNAL IS
NOT AS STRONG AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS. SIGNAL IS ALSO NOT AS STRONG AS
FOR FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TOO MUCH IN MOST AREAS... ALTHOUGH
THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW AN AREA OF FOG TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST
BEHIND A WIND SHIFT MOVING ACROSS THAT AREA. HAVE EXPANDED THE
AREA THAT MENTIONS FOG TO INCLUDE THIS REGION... BUT OTHERWISE
HAVE CHANGED THE DESCRIPTOR FOR THE FOG/DRIZZLE FROM AREAS TO
PATCHY SINCE THE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TOO WIDESPREAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THROUGH 18Z...THEN IS HIGH AFTERWARDS.

OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS.
ONGOING MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY STICK AROUND
UNTIL A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA 02-08Z...AND
PERHAPS NEAR KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC 09-15Z. DOUBT CONDITIONS
WILL WORSEN TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS EXCEPT KGAG.

FOR KLAW AND KSPS...THESE SITES HAVE THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE.
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES AS WELL
THROUGH 13Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

-DZ WILL END NEAR KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC BY 02Z. A FEW -SHRA MAY
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 08-16Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS
AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO SPARSE.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. THIS TROUGH WILL REACH NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND
08Z...KSPS AND KLAW 11-13Z...KOKC AROUND 15Z...AND KPNC AROUND
17Z. ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF CWA. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND PROGRESS QUICKLY OVER
THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP SCOUR OUT THE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND LARGE UPPER TROUGH
THAT WILL SKIRT THE REGION...MOST OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS STRONG JET ROUNDS BASE OF TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH
ELEVATED FRONTAL SURFACE. COLD CORE SIGNAL BEING PROGD TO AFFECT
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW. WE WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. WRF MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND VERY LIKELY OVERDONE. ECM KEEPS PRECIP UP IN
KANSAS WITH THE GFS IN BETWEEN.

OTHER THAN THE SMALL AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP...WINDS AND TEMPS WILL
BE THE MAIN SENSIBLE IMPACTS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALONG WITH A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION GETTING TO SEE THE SUN. BREEZY TOMORROW
MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEHIND THE FRONT. COOL WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMER WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CHRISTMAS DAY. BACK TO COOLER AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  57  36  45 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         38  58  35  46 /  10   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  42  62  39  50 /  10   0  20  10
GAGE OK           35  54  31  41 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     42  54  33  44 /  20  10  10  10
DURANT OK         45  60  41  51 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99




000
FXUS64 KOUN 220349 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
949 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AREAS OF DRIZZLE TODAY HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS NO OBSERVATIONS SITES ARE REPORTING DRIZZLE ANY MORE. MAY SEE
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF DRIZZLE LATER SINCE NAM SHOWS SOME RISING
MOTION AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER OVERNIGHT... BUT SIGNAL IS
NOT AS STRONG AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS. SIGNAL IS ALSO NOT AS STRONG AS
FOR FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TOO MUCH IN MOST AREAS... ALTHOUGH
THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW AN AREA OF FOG TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST
BEHIND A WIND SHIFT MOVING ACROSS THAT AREA. HAVE EXPANDED THE
AREA THAT MENTIONS FOG TO INCLUDE THIS REGION... BUT OTHERWISE
HAVE CHANGED THE DESCRIPTOR FOR THE FOG/DRIZZLE FROM AREAS TO
PATCHY SINCE THE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TOO WIDESPREAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THROUGH 18Z...THEN IS HIGH AFTERWARDS.

OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS.
ONGOING MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY STICK AROUND
UNTIL A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA 02-08Z...AND
PERHAPS NEAR KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC 09-15Z. DOUBT CONDITIONS
WILL WORSEN TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS EXCEPT KGAG.

FOR KLAW AND KSPS...THESE SITES HAVE THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE.
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES AS WELL
THROUGH 13Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

-DZ WILL END NEAR KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC BY 02Z. A FEW -SHRA MAY
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 08-16Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS
AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO SPARSE.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. THIS TROUGH WILL REACH NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND
08Z...KSPS AND KLAW 11-13Z...KOKC AROUND 15Z...AND KPNC AROUND
17Z. ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF CWA. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND PROGRESS QUICKLY OVER
THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP SCOUR OUT THE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND LARGE UPPER TROUGH
THAT WILL SKIRT THE REGION...MOST OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS STRONG JET ROUNDS BASE OF TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH
ELEVATED FRONTAL SURFACE. COLD CORE SIGNAL BEING PROGD TO AFFECT
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW. WE WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. WRF MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND VERY LIKELY OVERDONE. ECM KEEPS PRECIP UP IN
KANSAS WITH THE GFS IN BETWEEN.

OTHER THAN THE SMALL AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP...WINDS AND TEMPS WILL
BE THE MAIN SENSIBLE IMPACTS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALONG WITH A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION GETTING TO SEE THE SUN. BREEZY TOMORROW
MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEHIND THE FRONT. COOL WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMER WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CHRISTMAS DAY. BACK TO COOLER AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  57  36  45 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         38  58  35  46 /  10   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  42  62  39  50 /  10   0  20  10
GAGE OK           35  54  31  41 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     42  54  33  44 /  20  10  10  10
DURANT OK         45  60  41  51 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99




000
FXUS64 KOUN 220349 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
949 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AREAS OF DRIZZLE TODAY HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS NO OBSERVATIONS SITES ARE REPORTING DRIZZLE ANY MORE. MAY SEE
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF DRIZZLE LATER SINCE NAM SHOWS SOME RISING
MOTION AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER OVERNIGHT... BUT SIGNAL IS
NOT AS STRONG AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS. SIGNAL IS ALSO NOT AS STRONG AS
FOR FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TOO MUCH IN MOST AREAS... ALTHOUGH
THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW AN AREA OF FOG TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST
BEHIND A WIND SHIFT MOVING ACROSS THAT AREA. HAVE EXPANDED THE
AREA THAT MENTIONS FOG TO INCLUDE THIS REGION... BUT OTHERWISE
HAVE CHANGED THE DESCRIPTOR FOR THE FOG/DRIZZLE FROM AREAS TO
PATCHY SINCE THE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TOO WIDESPREAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THROUGH 18Z...THEN IS HIGH AFTERWARDS.

OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS.
ONGOING MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY STICK AROUND
UNTIL A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA 02-08Z...AND
PERHAPS NEAR KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC 09-15Z. DOUBT CONDITIONS
WILL WORSEN TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS EXCEPT KGAG.

FOR KLAW AND KSPS...THESE SITES HAVE THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE.
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES AS WELL
THROUGH 13Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

-DZ WILL END NEAR KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC BY 02Z. A FEW -SHRA MAY
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 08-16Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS
AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO SPARSE.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. THIS TROUGH WILL REACH NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND
08Z...KSPS AND KLAW 11-13Z...KOKC AROUND 15Z...AND KPNC AROUND
17Z. ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF CWA. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND PROGRESS QUICKLY OVER
THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP SCOUR OUT THE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND LARGE UPPER TROUGH
THAT WILL SKIRT THE REGION...MOST OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS STRONG JET ROUNDS BASE OF TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH
ELEVATED FRONTAL SURFACE. COLD CORE SIGNAL BEING PROGD TO AFFECT
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW. WE WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. WRF MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND VERY LIKELY OVERDONE. ECM KEEPS PRECIP UP IN
KANSAS WITH THE GFS IN BETWEEN.

OTHER THAN THE SMALL AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP...WINDS AND TEMPS WILL
BE THE MAIN SENSIBLE IMPACTS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALONG WITH A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION GETTING TO SEE THE SUN. BREEZY TOMORROW
MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEHIND THE FRONT. COOL WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMER WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CHRISTMAS DAY. BACK TO COOLER AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  57  36  45 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         38  58  35  46 /  10   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  42  62  39  50 /  10   0  20  10
GAGE OK           35  54  31  41 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     42  54  33  44 /  20  10  10  10
DURANT OK         45  60  41  51 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99




000
FXUS64 KOUN 220349 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
949 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AREAS OF DRIZZLE TODAY HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS NO OBSERVATIONS SITES ARE REPORTING DRIZZLE ANY MORE. MAY SEE
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF DRIZZLE LATER SINCE NAM SHOWS SOME RISING
MOTION AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER OVERNIGHT... BUT SIGNAL IS
NOT AS STRONG AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS. SIGNAL IS ALSO NOT AS STRONG AS
FOR FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TOO MUCH IN MOST AREAS... ALTHOUGH
THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW AN AREA OF FOG TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST
BEHIND A WIND SHIFT MOVING ACROSS THAT AREA. HAVE EXPANDED THE
AREA THAT MENTIONS FOG TO INCLUDE THIS REGION... BUT OTHERWISE
HAVE CHANGED THE DESCRIPTOR FOR THE FOG/DRIZZLE FROM AREAS TO
PATCHY SINCE THE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TOO WIDESPREAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THROUGH 18Z...THEN IS HIGH AFTERWARDS.

OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS.
ONGOING MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY STICK AROUND
UNTIL A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA 02-08Z...AND
PERHAPS NEAR KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC 09-15Z. DOUBT CONDITIONS
WILL WORSEN TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS EXCEPT KGAG.

FOR KLAW AND KSPS...THESE SITES HAVE THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE.
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES AS WELL
THROUGH 13Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

-DZ WILL END NEAR KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC BY 02Z. A FEW -SHRA MAY
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 08-16Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS
AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO SPARSE.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. THIS TROUGH WILL REACH NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND
08Z...KSPS AND KLAW 11-13Z...KOKC AROUND 15Z...AND KPNC AROUND
17Z. ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF CWA. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND PROGRESS QUICKLY OVER
THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP SCOUR OUT THE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND LARGE UPPER TROUGH
THAT WILL SKIRT THE REGION...MOST OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS STRONG JET ROUNDS BASE OF TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH
ELEVATED FRONTAL SURFACE. COLD CORE SIGNAL BEING PROGD TO AFFECT
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW. WE WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. WRF MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND VERY LIKELY OVERDONE. ECM KEEPS PRECIP UP IN
KANSAS WITH THE GFS IN BETWEEN.

OTHER THAN THE SMALL AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP...WINDS AND TEMPS WILL
BE THE MAIN SENSIBLE IMPACTS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALONG WITH A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION GETTING TO SEE THE SUN. BREEZY TOMORROW
MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEHIND THE FRONT. COOL WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMER WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CHRISTMAS DAY. BACK TO COOLER AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  57  36  45 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         38  58  35  46 /  10   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  42  62  39  50 /  10   0  20  10
GAGE OK           35  54  31  41 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     42  54  33  44 /  20  10  10  10
DURANT OK         45  60  41  51 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99




000
FXUS64 KTSA 220309
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
909 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND EVENTUALLY SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A FAIRLY
STRONG BUT MOISTURE STARVED UPPER SYSTEM GIVES WAY TO UPWARD
MOTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND FAST FLOW ALOFT
COMING INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH.

00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED A STRONG JET AT 500 MB FROM AROUND
SEATTLE INTO WESTERN COLORADO. SPEEDS OF 75 TO 100 KT WERE NOTED IN
THIS FLOW. 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 60 TO 70 METERS WERE COMMON FROM
MIDDLE WYOMING TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AHEAD OF THE JET SEGMENT. A
500 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF NEBRASKA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND 00Z TUESDAY IS WHERE DETAILS BECOME
IMPORTANT TO THE WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. OPTION ONE IS THE NEBRASKA UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT... END
OF STORY. OPTION TWO IS FAST FLOW REMAINS IN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AND DIGS OUT A NEW 500 MB LOW AROUND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. IF
THAT IS THE CASE THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCE OF NOTICEABLE
SNOW SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA. THE CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE OKLAHOMA UPPER LOW IS PROBABLE ...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THIS SECOND SCENARIO HAS SOME BACKING FROM THE
CURRENT DATA... GFS... GFS13... SREF... CANADIAN AND SEVERAL
MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE.

THEREFORE WE CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IN
A SMALL AREA OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
WITH A CHANCE OF A LITTLE SLEET OR SNOW MIX IN OTHER PARTS OF THE
REGION. A MORE AGGRESSIVE UPPER-LOW DEVELOPMENT THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED COULD RESULT IN MORE IMPORTANT WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME FAILURE OF THE OKLAHOMA SYSTEM
TO FORM WILL NEGATE ANYTHING IMPORTANT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08






000
FXUS64 KTSA 220309
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
909 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND EVENTUALLY SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A FAIRLY
STRONG BUT MOISTURE STARVED UPPER SYSTEM GIVES WAY TO UPWARD
MOTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND FAST FLOW ALOFT
COMING INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH.

00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED A STRONG JET AT 500 MB FROM AROUND
SEATTLE INTO WESTERN COLORADO. SPEEDS OF 75 TO 100 KT WERE NOTED IN
THIS FLOW. 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 60 TO 70 METERS WERE COMMON FROM
MIDDLE WYOMING TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AHEAD OF THE JET SEGMENT. A
500 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF NEBRASKA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND 00Z TUESDAY IS WHERE DETAILS BECOME
IMPORTANT TO THE WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. OPTION ONE IS THE NEBRASKA UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT... END
OF STORY. OPTION TWO IS FAST FLOW REMAINS IN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AND DIGS OUT A NEW 500 MB LOW AROUND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. IF
THAT IS THE CASE THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCE OF NOTICEABLE
SNOW SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA. THE CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE OKLAHOMA UPPER LOW IS PROBABLE ...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THIS SECOND SCENARIO HAS SOME BACKING FROM THE
CURRENT DATA... GFS... GFS13... SREF... CANADIAN AND SEVERAL
MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE.

THEREFORE WE CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IN
A SMALL AREA OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
WITH A CHANCE OF A LITTLE SLEET OR SNOW MIX IN OTHER PARTS OF THE
REGION. A MORE AGGRESSIVE UPPER-LOW DEVELOPMENT THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED COULD RESULT IN MORE IMPORTANT WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME FAILURE OF THE OKLAHOMA SYSTEM
TO FORM WILL NEGATE ANYTHING IMPORTANT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08







000
FXUS64 KOUN 212332
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
532 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THROUGH 18Z...THEN IS HIGH AFTERWARDS.

OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS.
ONGOING MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY STICK AROUND
UNTIL A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA 02-08Z...AND
PERHAPS NEAR KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC 09-15Z. DOUBT CONDITIONS
WILL WORSEN TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS EXCEPT KGAG.

FOR KLAW AND KSPS...THESE SITES HAVE THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE.
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES AS WELL
THROUGH 13Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

-DZ WILL END NEAR KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC BY 02Z. A FEW -SHRA MAY
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 08-16Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS
AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO SPARSE.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. THIS TROUGH WILL REACH NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND
08Z...KSPS AND KLAW 11-13Z...KOKC AROUND 15Z...AND KPNC AROUND
17Z. ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF CWA. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND PROGRESS QUICKLY OVER
THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP SCOUR OUT THE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND LARGE UPPER TROUGH
THAT WILL SKIRT THE REGION...MOST OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS STRONG JET ROUNDS BASE OF TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH
ELEVATED FRONTAL SURFACE. COLD CORE SIGNAL BEING PROGD TO AFFECT
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW. WE WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. WRF MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND VERY LIKELY OVERDONE. ECM KEEPS PRECIP UP IN
KANSAS WITH THE GFS IN BETWEEN.

OTHER THAN THE SMALL AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP...WINDS AND TEMPS WILL
BE THE MAIN SENSIBLE IMPACTS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALONG WITH A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION GETTING TO SEE THE SUN. BREEZY TOMORROW
MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEHIND THE FRONT. COOL WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMER WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CHRISTMAS DAY. BACK TO COOLER AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  57  36  45 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         38  58  35  46 /  10   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  42  62  39  50 /  10   0  20  10
GAGE OK           35  54  31  41 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     42  54  33  44 /  20  10  10  10
DURANT OK         45  60  41  51 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 212332
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
532 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THROUGH 18Z...THEN IS HIGH AFTERWARDS.

OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS.
ONGOING MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY STICK AROUND
UNTIL A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA 02-08Z...AND
PERHAPS NEAR KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC 09-15Z. DOUBT CONDITIONS
WILL WORSEN TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS EXCEPT KGAG.

FOR KLAW AND KSPS...THESE SITES HAVE THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE.
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES AS WELL
THROUGH 13Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

-DZ WILL END NEAR KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC BY 02Z. A FEW -SHRA MAY
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 08-16Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS
AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO SPARSE.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. THIS TROUGH WILL REACH NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND
08Z...KSPS AND KLAW 11-13Z...KOKC AROUND 15Z...AND KPNC AROUND
17Z. ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF CWA. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND PROGRESS QUICKLY OVER
THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP SCOUR OUT THE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND LARGE UPPER TROUGH
THAT WILL SKIRT THE REGION...MOST OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS STRONG JET ROUNDS BASE OF TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH
ELEVATED FRONTAL SURFACE. COLD CORE SIGNAL BEING PROGD TO AFFECT
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW. WE WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. WRF MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND VERY LIKELY OVERDONE. ECM KEEPS PRECIP UP IN
KANSAS WITH THE GFS IN BETWEEN.

OTHER THAN THE SMALL AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP...WINDS AND TEMPS WILL
BE THE MAIN SENSIBLE IMPACTS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALONG WITH A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION GETTING TO SEE THE SUN. BREEZY TOMORROW
MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEHIND THE FRONT. COOL WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMER WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CHRISTMAS DAY. BACK TO COOLER AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  57  36  45 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         38  58  35  46 /  10   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  42  62  39  50 /  10   0  20  10
GAGE OK           35  54  31  41 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     42  54  33  44 /  20  10  10  10
DURANT OK         45  60  41  51 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 212329
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
529 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL THIS EVENING WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN OK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
SPREADING EAST. STRONGER SOUTH WIND WILL LIKELY KEEP VISIBILITY
IN THE MVFR RANGE. COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL TURN WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AND BRING IN DRIER AIR...LEADING
TO VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
BEGINNING TO FEEL LIKE SEATTLE IN WINTER.  METEOROLOGIST
TRUSTING SANTA FOR SLEIGH-LOAD OF SUNSHINE FOR CHRISTMAS.

CLOUDS-PATCHY DRIZZLE AGAIN ON TAP TONIGHT.  HAVE RAISED
SUPERBLEND MIN TEMP PLUS FIVE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS...STILL
COMING OUT ON THE LOW SIDE.  EXPECT LITTLE DROP IN TEMPS
TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND.

WAVE NOW CENTERED  OVER SOUTHWEST MO SHOWN WELL BY WATER
VAPOR IMAGE...PULLING AWAY OVERNIGHT.  NEXT WAVE TO TAKE
SHAPE/CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. COOL FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE  PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN OK AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON / NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.  AS UPPER H500 FEATURE MOVES FROM
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT... TAIL END OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH SWEEPS
THROUGH OUR REGION. AMPLE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT TROUGH TO
RESULT IN RISK OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING FOR FAR
NORTHEAST OK...AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH
OR SO OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SANTA BRINGS SUNSHINE FOR CHRISTMAS AND TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 50S. HOWEVER NEXT FRONT ARRIVES CHRISTMAS NIGHT.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  55  36  46 /  20  20  10  10
FSM   45  55  41  48 /  20  30  20  20
MLC   47  57  39  49 /  20  20  10  10
BVO   46  54  33  45 /  30  30  10  10
FYV   43  52  36  46 /  20  40  20  20
BYV   43  51  37  46 /  20  40  20  20
MKO   45  54  36  47 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   44  52  34  44 /  30  30  10  10
F10   45  56  37  47 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   45  59  43  50 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 212329
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
529 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL THIS EVENING WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN OK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
SPREADING EAST. STRONGER SOUTH WIND WILL LIKELY KEEP VISIBILITY
IN THE MVFR RANGE. COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL TURN WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AND BRING IN DRIER AIR...LEADING
TO VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
BEGINNING TO FEEL LIKE SEATTLE IN WINTER.  METEOROLOGIST
TRUSTING SANTA FOR SLEIGH-LOAD OF SUNSHINE FOR CHRISTMAS.

CLOUDS-PATCHY DRIZZLE AGAIN ON TAP TONIGHT.  HAVE RAISED
SUPERBLEND MIN TEMP PLUS FIVE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS...STILL
COMING OUT ON THE LOW SIDE.  EXPECT LITTLE DROP IN TEMPS
TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND.

WAVE NOW CENTERED  OVER SOUTHWEST MO SHOWN WELL BY WATER
VAPOR IMAGE...PULLING AWAY OVERNIGHT.  NEXT WAVE TO TAKE
SHAPE/CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. COOL FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE  PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN OK AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON / NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.  AS UPPER H500 FEATURE MOVES FROM
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT... TAIL END OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH SWEEPS
THROUGH OUR REGION. AMPLE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT TROUGH TO
RESULT IN RISK OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING FOR FAR
NORTHEAST OK...AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH
OR SO OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SANTA BRINGS SUNSHINE FOR CHRISTMAS AND TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 50S. HOWEVER NEXT FRONT ARRIVES CHRISTMAS NIGHT.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  55  36  46 /  20  20  10  10
FSM   45  55  41  48 /  20  30  20  20
MLC   47  57  39  49 /  20  20  10  10
BVO   46  54  33  45 /  30  30  10  10
FYV   43  52  36  46 /  20  40  20  20
BYV   43  51  37  46 /  20  40  20  20
MKO   45  54  36  47 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   44  52  34  44 /  30  30  10  10
F10   45  56  37  47 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   45  59  43  50 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 212329
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
529 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL THIS EVENING WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN OK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
SPREADING EAST. STRONGER SOUTH WIND WILL LIKELY KEEP VISIBILITY
IN THE MVFR RANGE. COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL TURN WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AND BRING IN DRIER AIR...LEADING
TO VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
BEGINNING TO FEEL LIKE SEATTLE IN WINTER.  METEOROLOGIST
TRUSTING SANTA FOR SLEIGH-LOAD OF SUNSHINE FOR CHRISTMAS.

CLOUDS-PATCHY DRIZZLE AGAIN ON TAP TONIGHT.  HAVE RAISED
SUPERBLEND MIN TEMP PLUS FIVE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS...STILL
COMING OUT ON THE LOW SIDE.  EXPECT LITTLE DROP IN TEMPS
TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND.

WAVE NOW CENTERED  OVER SOUTHWEST MO SHOWN WELL BY WATER
VAPOR IMAGE...PULLING AWAY OVERNIGHT.  NEXT WAVE TO TAKE
SHAPE/CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. COOL FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE  PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN OK AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON / NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.  AS UPPER H500 FEATURE MOVES FROM
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT... TAIL END OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH SWEEPS
THROUGH OUR REGION. AMPLE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT TROUGH TO
RESULT IN RISK OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING FOR FAR
NORTHEAST OK...AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH
OR SO OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SANTA BRINGS SUNSHINE FOR CHRISTMAS AND TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 50S. HOWEVER NEXT FRONT ARRIVES CHRISTMAS NIGHT.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  55  36  46 /  20  20  10  10
FSM   45  55  41  48 /  20  30  20  20
MLC   47  57  39  49 /  20  20  10  10
BVO   46  54  33  45 /  30  30  10  10
FYV   43  52  36  46 /  20  40  20  20
BYV   43  51  37  46 /  20  40  20  20
MKO   45  54  36  47 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   44  52  34  44 /  30  30  10  10
F10   45  56  37  47 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   45  59  43  50 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 212329
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
529 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL THIS EVENING WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN OK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
SPREADING EAST. STRONGER SOUTH WIND WILL LIKELY KEEP VISIBILITY
IN THE MVFR RANGE. COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL TURN WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AND BRING IN DRIER AIR...LEADING
TO VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
BEGINNING TO FEEL LIKE SEATTLE IN WINTER.  METEOROLOGIST
TRUSTING SANTA FOR SLEIGH-LOAD OF SUNSHINE FOR CHRISTMAS.

CLOUDS-PATCHY DRIZZLE AGAIN ON TAP TONIGHT.  HAVE RAISED
SUPERBLEND MIN TEMP PLUS FIVE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS...STILL
COMING OUT ON THE LOW SIDE.  EXPECT LITTLE DROP IN TEMPS
TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND.

WAVE NOW CENTERED  OVER SOUTHWEST MO SHOWN WELL BY WATER
VAPOR IMAGE...PULLING AWAY OVERNIGHT.  NEXT WAVE TO TAKE
SHAPE/CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. COOL FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE  PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN OK AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON / NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.  AS UPPER H500 FEATURE MOVES FROM
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT... TAIL END OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH SWEEPS
THROUGH OUR REGION. AMPLE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT TROUGH TO
RESULT IN RISK OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING FOR FAR
NORTHEAST OK...AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH
OR SO OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SANTA BRINGS SUNSHINE FOR CHRISTMAS AND TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 50S. HOWEVER NEXT FRONT ARRIVES CHRISTMAS NIGHT.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  55  36  46 /  20  20  10  10
FSM   45  55  41  48 /  20  30  20  20
MLC   47  57  39  49 /  20  20  10  10
BVO   46  54  33  45 /  30  30  10  10
FYV   43  52  36  46 /  20  40  20  20
BYV   43  51  37  46 /  20  40  20  20
MKO   45  54  36  47 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   44  52  34  44 /  30  30  10  10
F10   45  56  37  47 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   45  59  43  50 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 212153
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
BEGINNING TO FEEL LIKE SEATTLE IN WINTER.  METEOROLOGIST
TRUSTING SANTA FOR SLEIGH-LOAD OF SUNSHINE FOR CHRISTMAS.

CLOUDS-PATCHY DRIZZLE AGAIN ON TAP TONIGHT.  HAVE RAISED
SUPERBLEND MIN TEMP PLUS FIVE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS...STILL
COMING OUT ON THE LOW SIDE.  EXPECT LITTLE DROP IN TEMPS
TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND.

WAVE NOW CENTERED  OVER SOUTHWEST MO SHOWN WELL BY WATER
VAPOR IMAGE...PULLING AWAY OVERNIGHT.  NEXT WAVE TO TAKE
SHAPE/CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. COOL FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE  PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN OK AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON / NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.  AS UPPER H500 FEATURE MOVES FROM
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT... TAIL END OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH SWEEPS
THROUGH OUR REGION. AMPLE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT TROUGH TO
RESULT IN RISK OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING FOR FAR
NORTHEAST OK...AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH
OR SO OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SANTA BRINGS SUNSHINE FOR CHRISTMAS AND TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 50S. HOWEVER NEXT FRONT ARRIVES CHRISTMAS NIGHT.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  55  36  46 /  20  20  10  10
FSM   45  55  41  48 /  20  30  20  20
MLC   47  57  39  49 /  20  20  10  10
BVO   46  54  33  45 /  30  30  10  10
FYV   43  52  36  46 /  20  40  20  20
BYV   43  51  37  46 /  20  40  20  20
MKO   45  54  36  47 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   44  52  34  44 /  30  30  10  10
F10   45  56  37  47 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   45  59  43  50 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 212153
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
BEGINNING TO FEEL LIKE SEATTLE IN WINTER.  METEOROLOGIST
TRUSTING SANTA FOR SLEIGH-LOAD OF SUNSHINE FOR CHRISTMAS.

CLOUDS-PATCHY DRIZZLE AGAIN ON TAP TONIGHT.  HAVE RAISED
SUPERBLEND MIN TEMP PLUS FIVE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS...STILL
COMING OUT ON THE LOW SIDE.  EXPECT LITTLE DROP IN TEMPS
TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND.

WAVE NOW CENTERED  OVER SOUTHWEST MO SHOWN WELL BY WATER
VAPOR IMAGE...PULLING AWAY OVERNIGHT.  NEXT WAVE TO TAKE
SHAPE/CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. COOL FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE  PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN OK AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON / NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.  AS UPPER H500 FEATURE MOVES FROM
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT... TAIL END OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH SWEEPS
THROUGH OUR REGION. AMPLE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT TROUGH TO
RESULT IN RISK OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING FOR FAR
NORTHEAST OK...AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH
OR SO OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SANTA BRINGS SUNSHINE FOR CHRISTMAS AND TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 50S. HOWEVER NEXT FRONT ARRIVES CHRISTMAS NIGHT.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  55  36  46 /  20  20  10  10
FSM   45  55  41  48 /  20  30  20  20
MLC   47  57  39  49 /  20  20  10  10
BVO   46  54  33  45 /  30  30  10  10
FYV   43  52  36  46 /  20  40  20  20
BYV   43  51  37  46 /  20  40  20  20
MKO   45  54  36  47 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   44  52  34  44 /  30  30  10  10
F10   45  56  37  47 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   45  59  43  50 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....21





000
FXUS64 KTSA 212153
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
BEGINNING TO FEEL LIKE SEATTLE IN WINTER.  METEOROLOGIST
TRUSTING SANTA FOR SLEIGH-LOAD OF SUNSHINE FOR CHRISTMAS.

CLOUDS-PATCHY DRIZZLE AGAIN ON TAP TONIGHT.  HAVE RAISED
SUPERBLEND MIN TEMP PLUS FIVE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS...STILL
COMING OUT ON THE LOW SIDE.  EXPECT LITTLE DROP IN TEMPS
TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND.

WAVE NOW CENTERED  OVER SOUTHWEST MO SHOWN WELL BY WATER
VAPOR IMAGE...PULLING AWAY OVERNIGHT.  NEXT WAVE TO TAKE
SHAPE/CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. COOL FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE  PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN OK AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON / NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.  AS UPPER H500 FEATURE MOVES FROM
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT... TAIL END OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH SWEEPS
THROUGH OUR REGION. AMPLE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT TROUGH TO
RESULT IN RISK OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING FOR FAR
NORTHEAST OK...AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH
OR SO OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SANTA BRINGS SUNSHINE FOR CHRISTMAS AND TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 50S. HOWEVER NEXT FRONT ARRIVES CHRISTMAS NIGHT.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  55  36  46 /  20  20  10  10
FSM   45  55  41  48 /  20  30  20  20
MLC   47  57  39  49 /  20  20  10  10
BVO   46  54  33  45 /  30  30  10  10
FYV   43  52  36  46 /  20  40  20  20
BYV   43  51  37  46 /  20  40  20  20
MKO   45  54  36  47 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   44  52  34  44 /  30  30  10  10
F10   45  56  37  47 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   45  59  43  50 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 212153
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
BEGINNING TO FEEL LIKE SEATTLE IN WINTER.  METEOROLOGIST
TRUSTING SANTA FOR SLEIGH-LOAD OF SUNSHINE FOR CHRISTMAS.

CLOUDS-PATCHY DRIZZLE AGAIN ON TAP TONIGHT.  HAVE RAISED
SUPERBLEND MIN TEMP PLUS FIVE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS...STILL
COMING OUT ON THE LOW SIDE.  EXPECT LITTLE DROP IN TEMPS
TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND.

WAVE NOW CENTERED  OVER SOUTHWEST MO SHOWN WELL BY WATER
VAPOR IMAGE...PULLING AWAY OVERNIGHT.  NEXT WAVE TO TAKE
SHAPE/CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. COOL FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE  PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN OK AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON / NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.  AS UPPER H500 FEATURE MOVES FROM
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT... TAIL END OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH SWEEPS
THROUGH OUR REGION. AMPLE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT TROUGH TO
RESULT IN RISK OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING FOR FAR
NORTHEAST OK...AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH
OR SO OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SANTA BRINGS SUNSHINE FOR CHRISTMAS AND TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 50S. HOWEVER NEXT FRONT ARRIVES CHRISTMAS NIGHT.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  55  36  46 /  20  20  10  10
FSM   45  55  41  48 /  20  30  20  20
MLC   47  57  39  49 /  20  20  10  10
BVO   46  54  33  45 /  30  30  10  10
FYV   43  52  36  46 /  20  40  20  20
BYV   43  51  37  46 /  20  40  20  20
MKO   45  54  36  47 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   44  52  34  44 /  30  30  10  10
F10   45  56  37  47 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   45  59  43  50 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....21





000
FXUS64 KOUN 212056
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
256 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF CWA. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND PROGRESS QUICKLY OVER
THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP SCOUR OUT THE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND LARGE UPPER TROUGH
THAT WILL SKIRT THE REGION...MOST OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS STRONG JET ROUNDS BASE OF TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH
ELEVATED FRONTAL SURFACE. COLD CORE SIGNAL BEING PROGD TO AFFECT
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW. WE WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. WRF MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND VERY LIKELY OVERDONE. ECM KEEPS PRECIP UP IN
KANSAS WITH THE GFS IN BETWEEN.

OTHER THAN THE SMALL AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP...WINDS AND TEMPS WILL
BE THE MAIN SENSIBLE IMPACTS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALONG WITH A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION GETTING TO SEE THE SUN. BREEZY TOMORROW
MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEHIND THE FRONT. COOL WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMER WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CHRISTMAS DAY. BACK TO COOLER AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  57  36  45 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         38  58  35  46 /  10   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  42  62  39  50 /  10   0  20  10
GAGE OK           35  54  31  41 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     42  54  33  44 /  20  10  10  10
DURANT OK         45  60  41  51 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 212056
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
256 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF CWA. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND PROGRESS QUICKLY OVER
THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP SCOUR OUT THE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND LARGE UPPER TROUGH
THAT WILL SKIRT THE REGION...MOST OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS STRONG JET ROUNDS BASE OF TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH
ELEVATED FRONTAL SURFACE. COLD CORE SIGNAL BEING PROGD TO AFFECT
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW. WE WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. WRF MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND VERY LIKELY OVERDONE. ECM KEEPS PRECIP UP IN
KANSAS WITH THE GFS IN BETWEEN.

OTHER THAN THE SMALL AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP...WINDS AND TEMPS WILL
BE THE MAIN SENSIBLE IMPACTS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALONG WITH A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION GETTING TO SEE THE SUN. BREEZY TOMORROW
MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEHIND THE FRONT. COOL WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMER WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CHRISTMAS DAY. BACK TO COOLER AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  57  36  45 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         38  58  35  46 /  10   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  42  62  39  50 /  10   0  20  10
GAGE OK           35  54  31  41 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     42  54  33  44 /  20  10  10  10
DURANT OK         45  60  41  51 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11



000
FXUS64 KTSA 211756
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1156 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH BROKEN SC DECK BETWEEN 3-5 KT.  CEILING
HEIGHTS WILL AGAIN FALL OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  STRONGER SOUTH
WINDS/MIXING WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
..EVEN WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS EXPECTED...GIVEN LATEST TEMP
TRENDS. DRIZZLE SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON...
OTHERWISE NO ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM CHANGES ANTICIPATED.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 211756
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1156 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH BROKEN SC DECK BETWEEN 3-5 KT.  CEILING
HEIGHTS WILL AGAIN FALL OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  STRONGER SOUTH
WINDS/MIXING WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
..EVEN WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS EXPECTED...GIVEN LATEST TEMP
TRENDS. DRIZZLE SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON...
OTHERWISE NO ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM CHANGES ANTICIPATED.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KOUN 211746 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1146 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
21/18Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR MOST
TERMINALS NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS...WITH VFR POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NEAR KSPS TERMINAL. CLEARING EXPECTED OVER
THIS PARTICULAR AREA AS FLOW VEERS SOUTH OF DEVELOPING SURFACE
CYCLONE AND AHEAD OF TONIGHTS FRONT. BACK TO IFR CONDITIONS AFTER
03Z ALL BUT SW OKLAHOMA AND KSPS TERMINALS AS FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF
INCOMING FRONT. FRONT WILL CLEAR OUT LOW VSBY/CIGS LATE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW MORNING WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...SO THIS UPDATE INCLUDES A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. NEVERTHELESS...THICK CLOUDS OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL RESULT IN MUCH LESS DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE THAN WHAT IS
TYPICAL.

ALSO RAISED WIND SPEEDS A BIT...DUE TO THE TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND ALREADY SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS THAN
FORECAST.

OVERALL...ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXISTING
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  42  55  38 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         54  38  56  36 /  10   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  41  60  40 /  10   0   0  20
GAGE OK           51  35  54  32 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     49  42  54  36 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         51  44  58  42 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/99/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 211636
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1036 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...SO THIS UPDATE INCLUDES A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. NEVERTHELESS...THICK CLOUDS OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL RESULT IN MUCH LESS DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE THAN WHAT IS
TYPICAL.

ALSO RAISED WIND SPEEDS A BIT...DUE TO THE TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND ALREADY SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS THAN
FORECAST.

OVERALL...ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXISTING
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  42  55  38 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         54  38  56  36 /  10   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  41  60  40 /  10   0   0  20
GAGE OK           51  35  54  32 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     49  42  54  36 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         51  44  58  42 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 211636
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1036 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...SO THIS UPDATE INCLUDES A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. NEVERTHELESS...THICK CLOUDS OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL RESULT IN MUCH LESS DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE THAN WHAT IS
TYPICAL.

ALSO RAISED WIND SPEEDS A BIT...DUE TO THE TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND ALREADY SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS THAN
FORECAST.

OVERALL...ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXISTING
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  42  55  38 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         54  38  56  36 /  10   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  41  60  40 /  10   0   0  20
GAGE OK           51  35  54  32 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     49  42  54  36 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         51  44  58  42 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 211620
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1020 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
...EVEN WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS EXPECTED...GIVEN LATEST TEMP
TRENDS. DRIZZLE SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON...
OTHERWISE NO ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM CHANGES ANTICIPATED.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 211620
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1020 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
...EVEN WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS EXPECTED...GIVEN LATEST TEMP
TRENDS. DRIZZLE SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON...
OTHERWISE NO ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM CHANGES ANTICIPATED.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






000
FXUS64 KOUN 211158
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
558 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MVRR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY EITHER IN LOW CEILINGS
OR FOG. FOG MAY DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CEILINGS LESS THAN
VFR ARE EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE FOR ONE MORE ENTIRE DAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM YESTERDAY`S LOW CLOUDS AND COOL
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A LITTLE MORE WIND. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND SWEEP AWAY THE LOW
CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY. SOME SUN WILL FOLLOW THIS WITH THE THE
TRANSITION TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE TROUGH. A
PRELIMINARY WEAK UPPER WAVE MAY CREATED SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE REST OF THE MOISTURE IS
SWEPT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE WARMER CONDITIONS OF A
SUNNIER MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A WINDIER AND COOLER AIRMASS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRONGER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WARMER, SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LIKELY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN MAXIMUM FORECAST TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING AGAIN AN AIRMASS WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR. THE FEW MINOR UPPER LEVEL
WAVES THAT PASS AT THE END OF THE WEEK ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  48  42  55  38 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         49  38  56  36 /  10   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  41  60  40 /  10   0   0  20
GAGE OK           49  35  54  32 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     47  42  54  36 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         50  44  58  42 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 211158
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
558 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MVRR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY EITHER IN LOW CEILINGS
OR FOG. FOG MAY DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CEILINGS LESS THAN
VFR ARE EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE FOR ONE MORE ENTIRE DAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM YESTERDAY`S LOW CLOUDS AND COOL
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A LITTLE MORE WIND. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND SWEEP AWAY THE LOW
CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY. SOME SUN WILL FOLLOW THIS WITH THE THE
TRANSITION TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE TROUGH. A
PRELIMINARY WEAK UPPER WAVE MAY CREATED SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE REST OF THE MOISTURE IS
SWEPT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE WARMER CONDITIONS OF A
SUNNIER MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A WINDIER AND COOLER AIRMASS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRONGER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WARMER, SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LIKELY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN MAXIMUM FORECAST TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING AGAIN AN AIRMASS WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR. THE FEW MINOR UPPER LEVEL
WAVES THAT PASS AT THE END OF THE WEEK ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  48  42  55  38 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         49  38  56  36 /  10   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  41  60  40 /  10   0   0  20
GAGE OK           49  35  54  32 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     47  42  54  36 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         50  44  58  42 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 211158
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
558 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MVRR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY EITHER IN LOW CEILINGS
OR FOG. FOG MAY DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CEILINGS LESS THAN
VFR ARE EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE FOR ONE MORE ENTIRE DAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM YESTERDAY`S LOW CLOUDS AND COOL
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A LITTLE MORE WIND. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND SWEEP AWAY THE LOW
CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY. SOME SUN WILL FOLLOW THIS WITH THE THE
TRANSITION TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE TROUGH. A
PRELIMINARY WEAK UPPER WAVE MAY CREATED SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE REST OF THE MOISTURE IS
SWEPT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE WARMER CONDITIONS OF A
SUNNIER MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A WINDIER AND COOLER AIRMASS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRONGER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WARMER, SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LIKELY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN MAXIMUM FORECAST TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING AGAIN AN AIRMASS WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR. THE FEW MINOR UPPER LEVEL
WAVES THAT PASS AT THE END OF THE WEEK ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  48  42  55  38 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         49  38  56  36 /  10   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  41  60  40 /  10   0   0  20
GAGE OK           49  35  54  32 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     47  42  54  36 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         50  44  58  42 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 211158
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
558 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MVRR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY EITHER IN LOW CEILINGS
OR FOG. FOG MAY DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CEILINGS LESS THAN
VFR ARE EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE FOR ONE MORE ENTIRE DAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM YESTERDAY`S LOW CLOUDS AND COOL
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A LITTLE MORE WIND. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND SWEEP AWAY THE LOW
CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY. SOME SUN WILL FOLLOW THIS WITH THE THE
TRANSITION TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE TROUGH. A
PRELIMINARY WEAK UPPER WAVE MAY CREATED SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE REST OF THE MOISTURE IS
SWEPT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE WARMER CONDITIONS OF A
SUNNIER MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A WINDIER AND COOLER AIRMASS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRONGER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WARMER, SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LIKELY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN MAXIMUM FORECAST TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING AGAIN AN AIRMASS WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR. THE FEW MINOR UPPER LEVEL
WAVES THAT PASS AT THE END OF THE WEEK ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  48  42  55  38 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         49  38  56  36 /  10   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  41  60  40 /  10   0   0  20
GAGE OK           49  35  54  32 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     47  42  54  36 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         50  44  58  42 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 211158
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
558 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MVRR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY EITHER IN LOW CEILINGS
OR FOG. FOG MAY DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CEILINGS LESS THAN
VFR ARE EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE FOR ONE MORE ENTIRE DAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM YESTERDAY`S LOW CLOUDS AND COOL
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A LITTLE MORE WIND. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND SWEEP AWAY THE LOW
CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY. SOME SUN WILL FOLLOW THIS WITH THE THE
TRANSITION TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE TROUGH. A
PRELIMINARY WEAK UPPER WAVE MAY CREATED SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE REST OF THE MOISTURE IS
SWEPT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE WARMER CONDITIONS OF A
SUNNIER MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A WINDIER AND COOLER AIRMASS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRONGER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WARMER, SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LIKELY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN MAXIMUM FORECAST TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING AGAIN AN AIRMASS WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR. THE FEW MINOR UPPER LEVEL
WAVES THAT PASS AT THE END OF THE WEEK ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  48  42  55  38 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         49  38  56  36 /  10   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  41  60  40 /  10   0   0  20
GAGE OK           49  35  54  32 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     47  42  54  36 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         50  44  58  42 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 211158
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
558 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MVRR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY EITHER IN LOW CEILINGS
OR FOG. FOG MAY DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CEILINGS LESS THAN
VFR ARE EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE FOR ONE MORE ENTIRE DAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM YESTERDAY`S LOW CLOUDS AND COOL
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A LITTLE MORE WIND. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND SWEEP AWAY THE LOW
CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY. SOME SUN WILL FOLLOW THIS WITH THE THE
TRANSITION TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE TROUGH. A
PRELIMINARY WEAK UPPER WAVE MAY CREATED SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE REST OF THE MOISTURE IS
SWEPT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE WARMER CONDITIONS OF A
SUNNIER MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A WINDIER AND COOLER AIRMASS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRONGER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WARMER, SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LIKELY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN MAXIMUM FORECAST TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING AGAIN AN AIRMASS WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR. THE FEW MINOR UPPER LEVEL
WAVES THAT PASS AT THE END OF THE WEEK ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  48  42  55  38 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         49  38  56  36 /  10   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  41  60  40 /  10   0   0  20
GAGE OK           49  35  54  32 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     47  42  54  36 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         50  44  58  42 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09/09



000
FXUS64 KTSA 211055
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING ANY
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. IN GENERAL...DECREASING CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CEILINGS
COULD LOWER AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
THAT THE DECREASE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS OF LATE WILL CONTINUE TODAY BENEATH
THE MOIST SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE NOTED AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS 285-290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS AND PRESSURE
CONDENSATION DEFICITS REMAIN VERY LOW (AROUND 10 MB).

DEEPENING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM SE OK INTO WRN AR. 00Z NAM
IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AND DEFINITELY SHOWS MORE QPF THAN THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SO HAVE KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. SRN
END OF SHARP UPPER TROF MAY CLOSE OFF BEFORE EXITING THE SRN PLAINS
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER NW AR...ALTHOUGH
IT STILL REMAINS UNCLEAR IF PRECIP WILL END BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES.

A SEASONALLY COOL WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A VERY MILD
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH HIGHS TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 50S.
NEXT SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE CHRISTMAS NIGHT VIA A COLD
FRONT...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
RETURN...SO HAVE KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 211055
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING ANY
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. IN GENERAL...DECREASING CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CEILINGS
COULD LOWER AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
THAT THE DECREASE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS OF LATE WILL CONTINUE TODAY BENEATH
THE MOIST SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE NOTED AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS 285-290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS AND PRESSURE
CONDENSATION DEFICITS REMAIN VERY LOW (AROUND 10 MB).

DEEPENING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM SE OK INTO WRN AR. 00Z NAM
IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AND DEFINITELY SHOWS MORE QPF THAN THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SO HAVE KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. SRN
END OF SHARP UPPER TROF MAY CLOSE OFF BEFORE EXITING THE SRN PLAINS
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER NW AR...ALTHOUGH
IT STILL REMAINS UNCLEAR IF PRECIP WILL END BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES.

A SEASONALLY COOL WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A VERY MILD
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH HIGHS TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 50S.
NEXT SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE CHRISTMAS NIGHT VIA A COLD
FRONT...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
RETURN...SO HAVE KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 211055
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING ANY
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. IN GENERAL...DECREASING CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CEILINGS
COULD LOWER AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
THAT THE DECREASE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS OF LATE WILL CONTINUE TODAY BENEATH
THE MOIST SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE NOTED AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS 285-290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS AND PRESSURE
CONDENSATION DEFICITS REMAIN VERY LOW (AROUND 10 MB).

DEEPENING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM SE OK INTO WRN AR. 00Z NAM
IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AND DEFINITELY SHOWS MORE QPF THAN THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SO HAVE KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. SRN
END OF SHARP UPPER TROF MAY CLOSE OFF BEFORE EXITING THE SRN PLAINS
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER NW AR...ALTHOUGH
IT STILL REMAINS UNCLEAR IF PRECIP WILL END BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES.

A SEASONALLY COOL WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A VERY MILD
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH HIGHS TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 50S.
NEXT SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE CHRISTMAS NIGHT VIA A COLD
FRONT...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
RETURN...SO HAVE KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 211055
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING ANY
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. IN GENERAL...DECREASING CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CEILINGS
COULD LOWER AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
THAT THE DECREASE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS OF LATE WILL CONTINUE TODAY BENEATH
THE MOIST SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE NOTED AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS 285-290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS AND PRESSURE
CONDENSATION DEFICITS REMAIN VERY LOW (AROUND 10 MB).

DEEPENING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM SE OK INTO WRN AR. 00Z NAM
IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AND DEFINITELY SHOWS MORE QPF THAN THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SO HAVE KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. SRN
END OF SHARP UPPER TROF MAY CLOSE OFF BEFORE EXITING THE SRN PLAINS
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER NW AR...ALTHOUGH
IT STILL REMAINS UNCLEAR IF PRECIP WILL END BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES.

A SEASONALLY COOL WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A VERY MILD
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH HIGHS TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 50S.
NEXT SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE CHRISTMAS NIGHT VIA A COLD
FRONT...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
RETURN...SO HAVE KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 210900
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS OF LATE WILL CONTINUE TODAY BENEATH
THE MOIST SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE NOTED AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS 285-290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS AND PRESSURE
CONDENSATION DEFICITS REMAIN VERY LOW (AROUND 10 MB).

DEEPENING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM SE OK INTO WRN AR. 00Z NAM
IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AND DEFINITELY SHOWS MORE QPF THAN THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SO HAVE KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. SRN
END OF SHARP UPPER TROF MAY CLOSE OFF BEFORE EXITING THE SRN PLAINS
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER NW AR...ALTHOUGH
IT STILL REMAINS UNCLEAR IF PRECIP WILL END BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES.

A SEASONALLY COOL WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A VERY MILD
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH HIGHS TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 50S.
NEXT SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE CHRISTMAS NIGHT VIA A COLD
FRONT...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
RETURN...SO HAVE KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  45  56  37 /  10  10  20  20
FSM   50  44  57  43 /  10  10  30  40
MLC   51  47  59  40 /  10  10  20  30
BVO   48  43  55  35 /  10  10  20  20
FYV   46  41  54  38 /  10  10  40  40
BYV   46  42  54  39 /  10  10  30  40
MKO   50  45  55  39 /  10  10  20  30
MIO   48  43  54  37 /  10  10  30  20
F10   49  46  57  38 /  10  10  20  20
HHW   50  47  60  44 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 210900
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS OF LATE WILL CONTINUE TODAY BENEATH
THE MOIST SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE NOTED AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS 285-290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS AND PRESSURE
CONDENSATION DEFICITS REMAIN VERY LOW (AROUND 10 MB).

DEEPENING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM SE OK INTO WRN AR. 00Z NAM
IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AND DEFINITELY SHOWS MORE QPF THAN THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SO HAVE KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. SRN
END OF SHARP UPPER TROF MAY CLOSE OFF BEFORE EXITING THE SRN PLAINS
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER NW AR...ALTHOUGH
IT STILL REMAINS UNCLEAR IF PRECIP WILL END BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES.

A SEASONALLY COOL WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A VERY MILD
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH HIGHS TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 50S.
NEXT SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE CHRISTMAS NIGHT VIA A COLD
FRONT...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
RETURN...SO HAVE KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  45  56  37 /  10  10  20  20
FSM   50  44  57  43 /  10  10  30  40
MLC   51  47  59  40 /  10  10  20  30
BVO   48  43  55  35 /  10  10  20  20
FYV   46  41  54  38 /  10  10  40  40
BYV   46  42  54  39 /  10  10  30  40
MKO   50  45  55  39 /  10  10  20  30
MIO   48  43  54  37 /  10  10  30  20
F10   49  46  57  38 /  10  10  20  20
HHW   50  47  60  44 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 210900
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS OF LATE WILL CONTINUE TODAY BENEATH
THE MOIST SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE NOTED AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS 285-290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS AND PRESSURE
CONDENSATION DEFICITS REMAIN VERY LOW (AROUND 10 MB).

DEEPENING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM SE OK INTO WRN AR. 00Z NAM
IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AND DEFINITELY SHOWS MORE QPF THAN THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SO HAVE KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. SRN
END OF SHARP UPPER TROF MAY CLOSE OFF BEFORE EXITING THE SRN PLAINS
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER NW AR...ALTHOUGH
IT STILL REMAINS UNCLEAR IF PRECIP WILL END BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES.

A SEASONALLY COOL WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A VERY MILD
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH HIGHS TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 50S.
NEXT SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE CHRISTMAS NIGHT VIA A COLD
FRONT...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
RETURN...SO HAVE KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  45  56  37 /  10  10  20  20
FSM   50  44  57  43 /  10  10  30  40
MLC   51  47  59  40 /  10  10  20  30
BVO   48  43  55  35 /  10  10  20  20
FYV   46  41  54  38 /  10  10  40  40
BYV   46  42  54  39 /  10  10  30  40
MKO   50  45  55  39 /  10  10  20  30
MIO   48  43  54  37 /  10  10  30  20
F10   49  46  57  38 /  10  10  20  20
HHW   50  47  60  44 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 210900
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS OF LATE WILL CONTINUE TODAY BENEATH
THE MOIST SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE NOTED AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS 285-290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS AND PRESSURE
CONDENSATION DEFICITS REMAIN VERY LOW (AROUND 10 MB).

DEEPENING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM SE OK INTO WRN AR. 00Z NAM
IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AND DEFINITELY SHOWS MORE QPF THAN THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SO HAVE KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. SRN
END OF SHARP UPPER TROF MAY CLOSE OFF BEFORE EXITING THE SRN PLAINS
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER NW AR...ALTHOUGH
IT STILL REMAINS UNCLEAR IF PRECIP WILL END BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES.

A SEASONALLY COOL WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A VERY MILD
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH HIGHS TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 50S.
NEXT SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE CHRISTMAS NIGHT VIA A COLD
FRONT...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
RETURN...SO HAVE KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  45  56  37 /  10  10  20  20
FSM   50  44  57  43 /  10  10  30  40
MLC   51  47  59  40 /  10  10  20  30
BVO   48  43  55  35 /  10  10  20  20
FYV   46  41  54  38 /  10  10  40  40
BYV   46  42  54  39 /  10  10  30  40
MKO   50  45  55  39 /  10  10  20  30
MIO   48  43  54  37 /  10  10  30  20
F10   49  46  57  38 /  10  10  20  20
HHW   50  47  60  44 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18






000
FXUS64 KOUN 210859
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
259 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE FOR ONE MORE ENTIRE DAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM YESTERDAY`S LOW CLOUDS AND COOL
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A LITTLE MORE WIND. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND SWEEP AWAY THE LOW
CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY. SOME SUN WILL FOLLOW THIS WITH THE THE
TRANSITION TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE TROUGH. A
PRELIMINARY WEAK UPPER WAVE MAY CREATED SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE REST OF THE MOISTURE IS
SWEPT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE WARMER CONDITIONS OF A
SUNNIER MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A WINDIER AND COOLER AIRMASS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRONGER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WARMER, SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LIKELY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN MAXIMUM FORECAST TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING AGAIN AN AIRMASS WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR. THE FEW MINOR UPPER LEVEL
WAVES THAT PASS AT THE END OF THE WEEK ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  42  55  38 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         50  38  56  36 /  10   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  41  60  40 /  10   0   0  20
GAGE OK           50  35  54  32 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     48  42  54  36 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         51  44  58  42 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 210859
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
259 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE FOR ONE MORE ENTIRE DAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM YESTERDAY`S LOW CLOUDS AND COOL
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A LITTLE MORE WIND. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND SWEEP AWAY THE LOW
CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY. SOME SUN WILL FOLLOW THIS WITH THE THE
TRANSITION TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE TROUGH. A
PRELIMINARY WEAK UPPER WAVE MAY CREATED SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE REST OF THE MOISTURE IS
SWEPT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE WARMER CONDITIONS OF A
SUNNIER MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A WINDIER AND COOLER AIRMASS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRONGER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WARMER, SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LIKELY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN MAXIMUM FORECAST TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING AGAIN AN AIRMASS WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR. THE FEW MINOR UPPER LEVEL
WAVES THAT PASS AT THE END OF THE WEEK ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  42  55  38 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         50  38  56  36 /  10   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  41  60  40 /  10   0   0  20
GAGE OK           50  35  54  32 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     48  42  54  36 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         51  44  58  42 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 210859
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
259 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE FOR ONE MORE ENTIRE DAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM YESTERDAY`S LOW CLOUDS AND COOL
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A LITTLE MORE WIND. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND SWEEP AWAY THE LOW
CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY. SOME SUN WILL FOLLOW THIS WITH THE THE
TRANSITION TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE TROUGH. A
PRELIMINARY WEAK UPPER WAVE MAY CREATED SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE REST OF THE MOISTURE IS
SWEPT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE WARMER CONDITIONS OF A
SUNNIER MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A WINDIER AND COOLER AIRMASS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRONGER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WARMER, SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LIKELY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN MAXIMUM FORECAST TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING AGAIN AN AIRMASS WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR. THE FEW MINOR UPPER LEVEL
WAVES THAT PASS AT THE END OF THE WEEK ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  42  55  38 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         50  38  56  36 /  10   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  41  60  40 /  10   0   0  20
GAGE OK           50  35  54  32 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     48  42  54  36 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         51  44  58  42 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 210859
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
259 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE FOR ONE MORE ENTIRE DAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM YESTERDAY`S LOW CLOUDS AND COOL
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A LITTLE MORE WIND. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND SWEEP AWAY THE LOW
CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY. SOME SUN WILL FOLLOW THIS WITH THE THE
TRANSITION TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE TROUGH. A
PRELIMINARY WEAK UPPER WAVE MAY CREATED SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE REST OF THE MOISTURE IS
SWEPT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE WARMER CONDITIONS OF A
SUNNIER MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A WINDIER AND COOLER AIRMASS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRONGER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WARMER, SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LIKELY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN MAXIMUM FORECAST TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING AGAIN AN AIRMASS WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR. THE FEW MINOR UPPER LEVEL
WAVES THAT PASS AT THE END OF THE WEEK ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  42  55  38 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         50  38  56  36 /  10   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  41  60  40 /  10   0   0  20
GAGE OK           50  35  54  32 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     48  42  54  36 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         51  44  58  42 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09



000
FXUS64 KTSA 210527
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1127 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH ALL AREAS TRANSITIONING TO
IFR/LIFR. GENERALLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD THOUGH VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 18Z WITH AT
LEAST SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AS WELL...MOST AREAS MVVFR
AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...

PATCHY DRIZZLE WAS ADDED TO THE EVENING FORECAST...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

DISCUSSION...

A FEW HOLES IN THE STRATUS DECK DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY...BUT THE
CLOUDS HAVE FILLED BACK IN AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS /COPAN WILL
CLOUD UP SOON/ AS OF 03Z. CLOUDS WILL HANG ON THRU THE
NIGHT...CONTINUING A STRING OF CLOUDY DAYS AND NIGHTS THAT
STRETCHES BACK TO THE 17TH. AS SUCH...LOWS WILL NOT BE MUCH
DIFFERENT FROM TODAY`S HIGHS AND THE FORECAST IS WITHIN REASON OF
THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION...WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN THE
LOW LEVELS IS PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR PATCHY
DRIZZLE...WHICH SHOWS UP ON RADAR AND IN SOME OF THE METAR OBS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE THRU THE NIGHT TO THE GRIDS. NO
OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO IFR
AS CEILINGS LOWER AND VISIBILITY EVENTUALLY BECOMES REDUCED
OVERNIGHT...SOME AREAS LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF LIFR CEILINGS AS
WELL 12-18Z. MODEST IMPROVEMENT AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY FOR TSA CWA. CLOUDS LIKELY ANCHORED
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE SUN ARRIVES ON 24TH.
MAX / MIN TEMP ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR MAINLY CLOUDY SKY.

H500 WAVE  FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN
&  CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WEST
COAST H500 RIDGE AMPLIFIES. ELONGATED TROUGH - CENTRAL
CANADA TO TEXAS BY TUESDAY.  THIS EVOLUTION WILL BRING
CHANCE PRECIP MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  ECMWF WRF GFS &
DIFFER SOME WITH THIS SYSTEM. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS
HOW FAST  COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE IN EASTERN OK NORTHWEST
AR TUESDAY. IF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLY THE TAIL END
OF PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE A
WINTRY MIX. GIVEN THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL
BE TUESDAY WITH  HIGH TEMPS IN LOW/MID 40S DID NOT PUT
POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. AND...THEN
JUST SLIGHT CHANCE EXTREME EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR.

RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION CHRISTMAS DAY WHILE NEXT
UPPER WAVE DIVES FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE ROCKIES.
CHRISTMAS DAY  PROMISES TO OFFER LOTS OF SUN WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT / FRIDAY
LEAVING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND.           GW


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KOUN 210506
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1106 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

OVERALL...THINK WORSENING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 15Z...THOUGH
EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW BAD CONDITIONS GET REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS NEAR KCSM...KWWR...
AND KGAG THROUGH 17Z. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WEST
OF KEND-KDUC AFTER 15Z. IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP
OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 00Z.

PATCHES/AREAS OF -DZ WILL DEVELOP AFTER 08Z...THEN SPREAD
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AFFECTING ALL SITES EXCEPT KGAG
AND KWWR.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY
CHANGE IS TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE WEST THIS
EVENING. IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME VERY
ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT... BUT THE TRENDS IN THE
HIGH- RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT ARE TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
DENSE FOG FORMATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND GENERALLY CONFINE THE
DENSE FOG TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS /SUCH AS THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS OR
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ROGER MILLS AND ELLIS COUNTIES/.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GENERAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BOUNDED BY STRONG INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO
ANYWHERE UNTIL COLD FRONT SURGES IN LATE MONDAY. MIXING ON HIGHER
TERRAIN HAS PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. BACKING/INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING S/WV
EXPECTED TO ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH THE
CLEARING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S BEFORE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS. FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN
THIS ISSUANCE.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT...DEEP AND VERY COLD
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POINTS EAST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BASED SOLELY ON
THICKNESS PROGS AND HISTORICAL H7-H5 THERMAL THRESHOLDS...ONE
MIGHT EXPECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER LEVEL DETERMINISTIC PROGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO STAY TOO WARM FOR TOO LONG FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING NEAR THE
RED RIVER. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED BUT AT THIS TIME NO
MENTION OF SNOW IN LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE.

COOL DOWN WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FROPA
APPEARS TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210506
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1106 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

OVERALL...THINK WORSENING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 15Z...THOUGH
EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW BAD CONDITIONS GET REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS NEAR KCSM...KWWR...
AND KGAG THROUGH 17Z. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WEST
OF KEND-KDUC AFTER 15Z. IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP
OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 00Z.

PATCHES/AREAS OF -DZ WILL DEVELOP AFTER 08Z...THEN SPREAD
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AFFECTING ALL SITES EXCEPT KGAG
AND KWWR.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY
CHANGE IS TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE WEST THIS
EVENING. IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME VERY
ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT... BUT THE TRENDS IN THE
HIGH- RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT ARE TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
DENSE FOG FORMATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND GENERALLY CONFINE THE
DENSE FOG TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS /SUCH AS THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS OR
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ROGER MILLS AND ELLIS COUNTIES/.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GENERAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BOUNDED BY STRONG INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO
ANYWHERE UNTIL COLD FRONT SURGES IN LATE MONDAY. MIXING ON HIGHER
TERRAIN HAS PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. BACKING/INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING S/WV
EXPECTED TO ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH THE
CLEARING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S BEFORE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS. FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN
THIS ISSUANCE.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT...DEEP AND VERY COLD
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POINTS EAST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BASED SOLELY ON
THICKNESS PROGS AND HISTORICAL H7-H5 THERMAL THRESHOLDS...ONE
MIGHT EXPECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER LEVEL DETERMINISTIC PROGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO STAY TOO WARM FOR TOO LONG FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING NEAR THE
RED RIVER. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED BUT AT THIS TIME NO
MENTION OF SNOW IN LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE.

COOL DOWN WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FROPA
APPEARS TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 210506
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1106 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

OVERALL...THINK WORSENING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 15Z...THOUGH
EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW BAD CONDITIONS GET REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS NEAR KCSM...KWWR...
AND KGAG THROUGH 17Z. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WEST
OF KEND-KDUC AFTER 15Z. IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP
OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 00Z.

PATCHES/AREAS OF -DZ WILL DEVELOP AFTER 08Z...THEN SPREAD
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AFFECTING ALL SITES EXCEPT KGAG
AND KWWR.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY
CHANGE IS TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE WEST THIS
EVENING. IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME VERY
ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT... BUT THE TRENDS IN THE
HIGH- RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT ARE TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
DENSE FOG FORMATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND GENERALLY CONFINE THE
DENSE FOG TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS /SUCH AS THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS OR
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ROGER MILLS AND ELLIS COUNTIES/.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GENERAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BOUNDED BY STRONG INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO
ANYWHERE UNTIL COLD FRONT SURGES IN LATE MONDAY. MIXING ON HIGHER
TERRAIN HAS PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. BACKING/INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING S/WV
EXPECTED TO ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH THE
CLEARING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S BEFORE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS. FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN
THIS ISSUANCE.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT...DEEP AND VERY COLD
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POINTS EAST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BASED SOLELY ON
THICKNESS PROGS AND HISTORICAL H7-H5 THERMAL THRESHOLDS...ONE
MIGHT EXPECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER LEVEL DETERMINISTIC PROGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO STAY TOO WARM FOR TOO LONG FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING NEAR THE
RED RIVER. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED BUT AT THIS TIME NO
MENTION OF SNOW IN LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE.

COOL DOWN WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FROPA
APPEARS TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 210506
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1106 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

OVERALL...THINK WORSENING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 15Z...THOUGH
EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW BAD CONDITIONS GET REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS NEAR KCSM...KWWR...
AND KGAG THROUGH 17Z. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WEST
OF KEND-KDUC AFTER 15Z. IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP
OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 00Z.

PATCHES/AREAS OF -DZ WILL DEVELOP AFTER 08Z...THEN SPREAD
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AFFECTING ALL SITES EXCEPT KGAG
AND KWWR.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY
CHANGE IS TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE WEST THIS
EVENING. IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME VERY
ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT... BUT THE TRENDS IN THE
HIGH- RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT ARE TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
DENSE FOG FORMATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND GENERALLY CONFINE THE
DENSE FOG TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS /SUCH AS THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS OR
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ROGER MILLS AND ELLIS COUNTIES/.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GENERAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BOUNDED BY STRONG INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO
ANYWHERE UNTIL COLD FRONT SURGES IN LATE MONDAY. MIXING ON HIGHER
TERRAIN HAS PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. BACKING/INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING S/WV
EXPECTED TO ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH THE
CLEARING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S BEFORE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS. FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN
THIS ISSUANCE.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT...DEEP AND VERY COLD
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POINTS EAST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BASED SOLELY ON
THICKNESS PROGS AND HISTORICAL H7-H5 THERMAL THRESHOLDS...ONE
MIGHT EXPECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER LEVEL DETERMINISTIC PROGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO STAY TOO WARM FOR TOO LONG FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING NEAR THE
RED RIVER. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED BUT AT THIS TIME NO
MENTION OF SNOW IN LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE.

COOL DOWN WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FROPA
APPEARS TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210350
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
950 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY
CHANGE IS TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE WEST THIS
EVENING. IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME VERY
ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT... BUT THE TRENDS IN THE
HIGH- RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT ARE TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
DENSE FOG FORMATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND GENERALLY CONFINE THE
DENSE FOG TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS /SUCH AS THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS OR
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ROGER MILLS AND ELLIS COUNTIES/.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GENERAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

OVERALL...THINK WORSENING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 18Z...THOUGH EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW BAD CONDITIONS WILL
GET REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN. ALL SITES WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER BY
06Z. WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY AFTER 12Z. CHANCES OF CONDITIONS DROPPING BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS REMAIN LOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WEST
OF KAVK-KLAW-KSPS AFTER 18Z.

PATCHES/AREAS OF -DZ WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z...MAINLY EAST OF
KAVK-KSPS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BOUNDED BY STRONG INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO
ANYWHERE UNTIL COLD FRONT SURGES IN LATE MONDAY. MIXING ON HIGHER
TERRAIN HAS PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. BACKING/INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING S/WV
EXPECTED TO ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH THE
CLEARING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S BEFORE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS. FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN
THIS ISSUANCE.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT...DEEP AND VERY COLD
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POINTS EAST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BASED SOLELY ON
THICKNESS PROGS AND HISTORICAL H7-H5 THERMAL THRESHOLDS...ONE
MIGHT EXPECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER LEVEL DETERMINISTIC PROGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO STAY TOO WARM FOR TOO LONG FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING NEAR THE
RED RIVER. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED BUT AT THIS TIME NO
MENTION OF SNOW IN LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE.

COOL DOWN WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FROPA
APPEARS TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  50  42  57 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         38  53  38  57 /  10  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  55  41  63 /  10  10  10   0
GAGE OK           34  53  36  55 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     37  49  43  54 /  10  10  10  20
DURANT OK         41  52  45  59 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99



000
FXUS64 KOUN 210350
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
950 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY
CHANGE IS TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE WEST THIS
EVENING. IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME VERY
ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT... BUT THE TRENDS IN THE
HIGH- RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT ARE TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
DENSE FOG FORMATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND GENERALLY CONFINE THE
DENSE FOG TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS /SUCH AS THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS OR
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ROGER MILLS AND ELLIS COUNTIES/.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GENERAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

OVERALL...THINK WORSENING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 18Z...THOUGH EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW BAD CONDITIONS WILL
GET REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN. ALL SITES WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER BY
06Z. WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY AFTER 12Z. CHANCES OF CONDITIONS DROPPING BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS REMAIN LOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WEST
OF KAVK-KLAW-KSPS AFTER 18Z.

PATCHES/AREAS OF -DZ WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z...MAINLY EAST OF
KAVK-KSPS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BOUNDED BY STRONG INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO
ANYWHERE UNTIL COLD FRONT SURGES IN LATE MONDAY. MIXING ON HIGHER
TERRAIN HAS PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. BACKING/INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING S/WV
EXPECTED TO ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH THE
CLEARING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S BEFORE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS. FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN
THIS ISSUANCE.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT...DEEP AND VERY COLD
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POINTS EAST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BASED SOLELY ON
THICKNESS PROGS AND HISTORICAL H7-H5 THERMAL THRESHOLDS...ONE
MIGHT EXPECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER LEVEL DETERMINISTIC PROGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO STAY TOO WARM FOR TOO LONG FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING NEAR THE
RED RIVER. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED BUT AT THIS TIME NO
MENTION OF SNOW IN LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE.

COOL DOWN WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FROPA
APPEARS TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  50  42  57 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         38  53  38  57 /  10  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  55  41  63 /  10  10  10   0
GAGE OK           34  53  36  55 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     37  49  43  54 /  10  10  10  20
DURANT OK         41  52  45  59 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99



000
FXUS64 KOUN 210350
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
950 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY
CHANGE IS TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE WEST THIS
EVENING. IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME VERY
ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT... BUT THE TRENDS IN THE
HIGH- RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT ARE TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
DENSE FOG FORMATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND GENERALLY CONFINE THE
DENSE FOG TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS /SUCH AS THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS OR
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ROGER MILLS AND ELLIS COUNTIES/.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GENERAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

OVERALL...THINK WORSENING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 18Z...THOUGH EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW BAD CONDITIONS WILL
GET REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN. ALL SITES WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER BY
06Z. WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY AFTER 12Z. CHANCES OF CONDITIONS DROPPING BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS REMAIN LOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WEST
OF KAVK-KLAW-KSPS AFTER 18Z.

PATCHES/AREAS OF -DZ WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z...MAINLY EAST OF
KAVK-KSPS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BOUNDED BY STRONG INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO
ANYWHERE UNTIL COLD FRONT SURGES IN LATE MONDAY. MIXING ON HIGHER
TERRAIN HAS PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. BACKING/INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING S/WV
EXPECTED TO ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH THE
CLEARING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S BEFORE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS. FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN
THIS ISSUANCE.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT...DEEP AND VERY COLD
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POINTS EAST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BASED SOLELY ON
THICKNESS PROGS AND HISTORICAL H7-H5 THERMAL THRESHOLDS...ONE
MIGHT EXPECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER LEVEL DETERMINISTIC PROGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO STAY TOO WARM FOR TOO LONG FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING NEAR THE
RED RIVER. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED BUT AT THIS TIME NO
MENTION OF SNOW IN LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE.

COOL DOWN WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FROPA
APPEARS TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  50  42  57 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         38  53  38  57 /  10  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  55  41  63 /  10  10  10   0
GAGE OK           34  53  36  55 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     37  49  43  54 /  10  10  10  20
DURANT OK         41  52  45  59 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99



000
FXUS64 KOUN 210350
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
950 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY
CHANGE IS TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE WEST THIS
EVENING. IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME VERY
ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT... BUT THE TRENDS IN THE
HIGH- RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT ARE TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
DENSE FOG FORMATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND GENERALLY CONFINE THE
DENSE FOG TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS /SUCH AS THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS OR
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ROGER MILLS AND ELLIS COUNTIES/.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GENERAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

OVERALL...THINK WORSENING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 18Z...THOUGH EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW BAD CONDITIONS WILL
GET REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN. ALL SITES WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER BY
06Z. WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY AFTER 12Z. CHANCES OF CONDITIONS DROPPING BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS REMAIN LOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WEST
OF KAVK-KLAW-KSPS AFTER 18Z.

PATCHES/AREAS OF -DZ WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z...MAINLY EAST OF
KAVK-KSPS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BOUNDED BY STRONG INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO
ANYWHERE UNTIL COLD FRONT SURGES IN LATE MONDAY. MIXING ON HIGHER
TERRAIN HAS PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. BACKING/INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING S/WV
EXPECTED TO ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH THE
CLEARING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S BEFORE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS. FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN
THIS ISSUANCE.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT...DEEP AND VERY COLD
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POINTS EAST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BASED SOLELY ON
THICKNESS PROGS AND HISTORICAL H7-H5 THERMAL THRESHOLDS...ONE
MIGHT EXPECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER LEVEL DETERMINISTIC PROGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO STAY TOO WARM FOR TOO LONG FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING NEAR THE
RED RIVER. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED BUT AT THIS TIME NO
MENTION OF SNOW IN LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE.

COOL DOWN WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FROPA
APPEARS TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  50  42  57 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         38  53  38  57 /  10  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  55  41  63 /  10  10  10   0
GAGE OK           34  53  36  55 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     37  49  43  54 /  10  10  10  20
DURANT OK         41  52  45  59 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99



000
FXUS64 KOUN 210350
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
950 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY
CHANGE IS TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE WEST THIS
EVENING. IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME VERY
ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT... BUT THE TRENDS IN THE
HIGH- RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT ARE TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
DENSE FOG FORMATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND GENERALLY CONFINE THE
DENSE FOG TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS /SUCH AS THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS OR
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ROGER MILLS AND ELLIS COUNTIES/.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GENERAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

OVERALL...THINK WORSENING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 18Z...THOUGH EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW BAD CONDITIONS WILL
GET REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN. ALL SITES WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER BY
06Z. WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY AFTER 12Z. CHANCES OF CONDITIONS DROPPING BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS REMAIN LOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WEST
OF KAVK-KLAW-KSPS AFTER 18Z.

PATCHES/AREAS OF -DZ WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z...MAINLY EAST OF
KAVK-KSPS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BOUNDED BY STRONG INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO
ANYWHERE UNTIL COLD FRONT SURGES IN LATE MONDAY. MIXING ON HIGHER
TERRAIN HAS PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. BACKING/INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING S/WV
EXPECTED TO ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH THE
CLEARING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S BEFORE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS. FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN
THIS ISSUANCE.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT...DEEP AND VERY COLD
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POINTS EAST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BASED SOLELY ON
THICKNESS PROGS AND HISTORICAL H7-H5 THERMAL THRESHOLDS...ONE
MIGHT EXPECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER LEVEL DETERMINISTIC PROGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO STAY TOO WARM FOR TOO LONG FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING NEAR THE
RED RIVER. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED BUT AT THIS TIME NO
MENTION OF SNOW IN LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE.

COOL DOWN WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FROPA
APPEARS TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  50  42  57 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         38  53  38  57 /  10  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  55  41  63 /  10  10  10   0
GAGE OK           34  53  36  55 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     37  49  43  54 /  10  10  10  20
DURANT OK         41  52  45  59 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210350
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
950 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY
CHANGE IS TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE WEST THIS
EVENING. IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME VERY
ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT... BUT THE TRENDS IN THE
HIGH- RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT ARE TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
DENSE FOG FORMATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND GENERALLY CONFINE THE
DENSE FOG TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS /SUCH AS THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS OR
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ROGER MILLS AND ELLIS COUNTIES/.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GENERAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

OVERALL...THINK WORSENING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 18Z...THOUGH EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW BAD CONDITIONS WILL
GET REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN. ALL SITES WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER BY
06Z. WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY AFTER 12Z. CHANCES OF CONDITIONS DROPPING BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS REMAIN LOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WEST
OF KAVK-KLAW-KSPS AFTER 18Z.

PATCHES/AREAS OF -DZ WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z...MAINLY EAST OF
KAVK-KSPS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BOUNDED BY STRONG INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO
ANYWHERE UNTIL COLD FRONT SURGES IN LATE MONDAY. MIXING ON HIGHER
TERRAIN HAS PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. BACKING/INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING S/WV
EXPECTED TO ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH THE
CLEARING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S BEFORE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS. FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN
THIS ISSUANCE.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT...DEEP AND VERY COLD
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POINTS EAST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BASED SOLELY ON
THICKNESS PROGS AND HISTORICAL H7-H5 THERMAL THRESHOLDS...ONE
MIGHT EXPECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER LEVEL DETERMINISTIC PROGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO STAY TOO WARM FOR TOO LONG FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING NEAR THE
RED RIVER. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED BUT AT THIS TIME NO
MENTION OF SNOW IN LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE.

COOL DOWN WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FROPA
APPEARS TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  50  42  57 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         38  53  38  57 /  10  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  55  41  63 /  10  10  10   0
GAGE OK           34  53  36  55 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     37  49  43  54 /  10  10  10  20
DURANT OK         41  52  45  59 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99



000
FXUS64 KTSA 210306
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
906 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

PATCHY DRIZZLE WAS ADDED TO THE EVENING FORECAST...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A FEW HOLES IN THE STRATUS DECK DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY...BUT THE
CLOUDS HAVE FILLED BACK IN AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS /COPAN WILL
CLOUD UP SOON/ AS OF 03Z. CLOUDS WILL HANG ON THRU THE
NIGHT...CONTINUING A STRING OF CLOUDY DAYS AND NIGHTS THAT
STRETCHES BACK TO THE 17TH. AS SUCH...LOWS WILL NOT BE MUCH
DIFFERENT FROM TODAY`S HIGHS AND THE FORECAST IS WITHIN REASON OF
THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION...WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN THE
LOW LEVELS IS PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR PATCHY
DRIZZLE...WHICH SHOWS UP ON RADAR AND IN SOME OF THE METAR OBS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE THRU THE NIGHT TO THE GRIDS. NO
OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO IFR
AS CEILINGS LOWER AND VISIBILITY EVENTUALLY BECOMES REDUCED
OVERNIGHT...SOME AREAS LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF LIFR CEILINGS AS
WELL 12-18Z. MODEST IMPROVEMENT AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY FOR TSA CWA. CLOUDS LIKELY ANCHORED
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE SUN ARRIVES ON 24TH.
MAX / MIN TEMP ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR MAINLY CLOUDY SKY.

H500 WAVE  FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN
&  CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WEST
COAST H500 RIDGE AMPLIFIES. ELONGATED TROUGH - CENTRAL
CANADA TO TEXAS BY TUESDAY.  THIS EVOLUTION WILL BRING
CHANCE PRECIP MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  ECMWF WRF GFS &
DIFFER SOME WITH THIS SYSTEM. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS
HOW FAST  COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE IN EASTERN OK NORTHWEST
AR TUESDAY. IF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLY THE TAIL END
OF PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE A
WINTRY MIX. GIVEN THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL
BE TUESDAY WITH  HIGH TEMPS IN LOW/MID 40S DID NOT PUT
POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. AND...THEN
JUST SLIGHT CHANCE EXTREME EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR.

RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION CHRISTMAS DAY WHILE NEXT
UPPER WAVE DIVES FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE ROCKIES.
CHRISTMAS DAY  PROMISES TO OFFER LOTS OF SUN WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT / FRIDAY
LEAVING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND.           GW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  50  46  54 /   0  10  10  20
FSM   40  50  43  56 /   0  10  10  30
MLC   42  50  47  57 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   37  48  43  53 /   0  10  10  20
FYV   36  46  42  53 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   35  47  41  53 /   0  10  10  30
MKO   40  49  44  55 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   39  48  43  52 /   0  10  20  30
F10   40  49  45  56 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   42  50  45  60 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 210306
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
906 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

PATCHY DRIZZLE WAS ADDED TO THE EVENING FORECAST...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A FEW HOLES IN THE STRATUS DECK DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY...BUT THE
CLOUDS HAVE FILLED BACK IN AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS /COPAN WILL
CLOUD UP SOON/ AS OF 03Z. CLOUDS WILL HANG ON THRU THE
NIGHT...CONTINUING A STRING OF CLOUDY DAYS AND NIGHTS THAT
STRETCHES BACK TO THE 17TH. AS SUCH...LOWS WILL NOT BE MUCH
DIFFERENT FROM TODAY`S HIGHS AND THE FORECAST IS WITHIN REASON OF
THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION...WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN THE
LOW LEVELS IS PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR PATCHY
DRIZZLE...WHICH SHOWS UP ON RADAR AND IN SOME OF THE METAR OBS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE THRU THE NIGHT TO THE GRIDS. NO
OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO IFR
AS CEILINGS LOWER AND VISIBILITY EVENTUALLY BECOMES REDUCED
OVERNIGHT...SOME AREAS LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF LIFR CEILINGS AS
WELL 12-18Z. MODEST IMPROVEMENT AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY FOR TSA CWA. CLOUDS LIKELY ANCHORED
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE SUN ARRIVES ON 24TH.
MAX / MIN TEMP ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR MAINLY CLOUDY SKY.

H500 WAVE  FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN
&  CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WEST
COAST H500 RIDGE AMPLIFIES. ELONGATED TROUGH - CENTRAL
CANADA TO TEXAS BY TUESDAY.  THIS EVOLUTION WILL BRING
CHANCE PRECIP MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  ECMWF WRF GFS &
DIFFER SOME WITH THIS SYSTEM. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS
HOW FAST  COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE IN EASTERN OK NORTHWEST
AR TUESDAY. IF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLY THE TAIL END
OF PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE A
WINTRY MIX. GIVEN THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL
BE TUESDAY WITH  HIGH TEMPS IN LOW/MID 40S DID NOT PUT
POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. AND...THEN
JUST SLIGHT CHANCE EXTREME EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR.

RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION CHRISTMAS DAY WHILE NEXT
UPPER WAVE DIVES FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE ROCKIES.
CHRISTMAS DAY  PROMISES TO OFFER LOTS OF SUN WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT / FRIDAY
LEAVING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND.           GW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  50  46  54 /   0  10  10  20
FSM   40  50  43  56 /   0  10  10  30
MLC   42  50  47  57 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   37  48  43  53 /   0  10  10  20
FYV   36  46  42  53 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   35  47  41  53 /   0  10  10  30
MKO   40  49  44  55 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   39  48  43  52 /   0  10  20  30
F10   40  49  45  56 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   42  50  45  60 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KOUN 202348
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
548 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

OVERALL...THINK WORSENING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 18Z...THOUGH EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW BAD CONDITIONS WILL
GET REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN. ALL SITES WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER BY
06Z. WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY AFTER 12Z. CHANCES OF CONDITIONS DROPPING BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS REMAIN LOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WEST
OF KAVK-KLAW-KSPS AFTER 18Z.

PATCHES/AREAS OF -DZ WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z...MAINLY EAST OF
KAVK-KSPS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BOUNDED BY STRONG INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO
ANYWHERE UNTIL COLD FRONT SURGES IN LATE MONDAY. MIXING ON HIGHER
TERRAIN HAS PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. BACKING/INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING S/WV
EXPECTED TO ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH THE
CLEARING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S BEFORE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS. FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN
THIS ISSUANCE.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT...DEEP AND VERY COLD
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POINTS EAST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BASED SOLELY ON
THICKNESS PROGS AND HISTORICAL H7-H5 THERMAL THRESHOLDS...ONE
MIGHT EXPECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER LEVEL DETERMINISTIC PROGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO STAY TOO WARM FOR TOO LONG FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING NEAR THE
RED RIVER. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED BUT AT THIS TIME NO
MENTION OF SNOW IN LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE.

COOL DOWN WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FROPA
APPEARS TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  50  42  57 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         38  53  38  57 /  10  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  55  41  63 /  10  10  10   0
GAGE OK           34  53  36  55 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     37  49  43  54 /  10  10  10  20
DURANT OK         41  52  45  59 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 202348
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
548 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

OVERALL...THINK WORSENING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 18Z...THOUGH EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW BAD CONDITIONS WILL
GET REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN. ALL SITES WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER BY
06Z. WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY AFTER 12Z. CHANCES OF CONDITIONS DROPPING BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS REMAIN LOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WEST
OF KAVK-KLAW-KSPS AFTER 18Z.

PATCHES/AREAS OF -DZ WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z...MAINLY EAST OF
KAVK-KSPS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BOUNDED BY STRONG INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO
ANYWHERE UNTIL COLD FRONT SURGES IN LATE MONDAY. MIXING ON HIGHER
TERRAIN HAS PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. BACKING/INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING S/WV
EXPECTED TO ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH THE
CLEARING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S BEFORE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS. FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN
THIS ISSUANCE.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT...DEEP AND VERY COLD
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POINTS EAST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BASED SOLELY ON
THICKNESS PROGS AND HISTORICAL H7-H5 THERMAL THRESHOLDS...ONE
MIGHT EXPECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER LEVEL DETERMINISTIC PROGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO STAY TOO WARM FOR TOO LONG FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING NEAR THE
RED RIVER. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED BUT AT THIS TIME NO
MENTION OF SNOW IN LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE.

COOL DOWN WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FROPA
APPEARS TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  50  42  57 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         38  53  38  57 /  10  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  55  41  63 /  10  10  10   0
GAGE OK           34  53  36  55 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     37  49  43  54 /  10  10  10  20
DURANT OK         41  52  45  59 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 202325
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
525 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO IFR
AS CEILINGS LOWER AND VISIBILITY EVENTUALLY BECOMES REDUCED
OVERNIGHT...SOME AREAS LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF LIFR CEILINGS AS
WELL 12-18Z. MODEST IMPROVEMENT AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY FOR TSA CWA. CLOUDS LIKELY ANCHORED
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE SUN ARRIVES ON 24TH.
MAX / MIN TEMP ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR MAINLY CLOUDY SKY.

H500 WAVE  FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN
&  CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WEST
COAST H500 RIDGE AMPLIFIES. ELONGATED TROUGH - CENTRAL
CANADA TO TEXAS BY TUESDAY.  THIS EVOLUTION WILL BRING
CHANCE PRECIP MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  ECMWF WRF GFS &
DIFFER SOME WITH THIS SYSTEM. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS
HOW FAST  COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE IN EASTERN OK NORTHWEST
AR TUESDAY. IF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLY THE TAIL END
OF PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE A
WINTRY MIX. GIVEN THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL
BE TUESDAY WITH  HIGH TEMPS IN LOW/MID 40S DID NOT PUT
POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. AND...THEN
JUST SLIGHT CHANCE EXTREME EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR.

RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION CHRISTMAS DAY WHILE NEXT
UPPER WAVE DIVES FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE ROCKIES.
CHRISTMAS DAY  PROMISES TO OFFER LOTS OF SUN WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT / FRIDAY
LEAVING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND.           GW


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KTSA 202325
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
525 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO IFR
AS CEILINGS LOWER AND VISIBILITY EVENTUALLY BECOMES REDUCED
OVERNIGHT...SOME AREAS LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF LIFR CEILINGS AS
WELL 12-18Z. MODEST IMPROVEMENT AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY FOR TSA CWA. CLOUDS LIKELY ANCHORED
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE SUN ARRIVES ON 24TH.
MAX / MIN TEMP ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR MAINLY CLOUDY SKY.

H500 WAVE  FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN
&  CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WEST
COAST H500 RIDGE AMPLIFIES. ELONGATED TROUGH - CENTRAL
CANADA TO TEXAS BY TUESDAY.  THIS EVOLUTION WILL BRING
CHANCE PRECIP MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  ECMWF WRF GFS &
DIFFER SOME WITH THIS SYSTEM. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS
HOW FAST  COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE IN EASTERN OK NORTHWEST
AR TUESDAY. IF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLY THE TAIL END
OF PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE A
WINTRY MIX. GIVEN THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL
BE TUESDAY WITH  HIGH TEMPS IN LOW/MID 40S DID NOT PUT
POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. AND...THEN
JUST SLIGHT CHANCE EXTREME EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR.

RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION CHRISTMAS DAY WHILE NEXT
UPPER WAVE DIVES FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE ROCKIES.
CHRISTMAS DAY  PROMISES TO OFFER LOTS OF SUN WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT / FRIDAY
LEAVING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND.           GW


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 202148
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
348 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY FOR TSA CWA. CLOUDS LIKELY ANCHORED
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE SUN ARRIVES ON 24TH.
MAX / MIN TEMP ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR MAINLY CLOUDY SKY.

H500 WAVE  FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN
&  CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WEST
COAST H500 RIDGE AMPLIFIES. ELONGATED TROUGH - CENTRAL
CANADA TO TEXAS BY TUESDAY.  THIS EVOLUTION WILL BRING
CHANCE PRECIP MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  ECMWF WRF GFS &
DIFFER SOME WITH THIS SYSTEM. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS
HOW FAST  COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE IN EASTERN OK NORTHWEST
AR TUESDAY. IF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLY THE TAIL END
OF PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE A
WINTRY MIX. GIVEN THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL
BE TUESDAY WITH  HIGH TEMPS IN LOW/MID 40S DID NOT PUT
POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. AND...THEN
JUST SLIGHT CHANCE EXTREME EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR.

RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION CHRISTMAS DAY WHILE NEXT
UPPER WAVE DIVES FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE ROCKIES.
CHRISTMAS DAY  PROMISES TO OFFER LOTS OF SUN WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT / FRIDAY
LEAVING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND.           GW



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  50  46  54 /   0  10  10  20
FSM   40  50  43  56 /   0  10  10  30
MLC   42  50  47  57 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   37  48  43  53 /   0  10  10  20
FYV   36  46  42  53 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   35  47  41  53 /   0  10  10  30
MKO   40  49  44  55 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   39  48  43  52 /   0  10  20  30
F10   40  49  45  56 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   42  50  45  60 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....21





000
FXUS64 KTSA 202148
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
348 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY FOR TSA CWA. CLOUDS LIKELY ANCHORED
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE SUN ARRIVES ON 24TH.
MAX / MIN TEMP ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR MAINLY CLOUDY SKY.

H500 WAVE  FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN
&  CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WEST
COAST H500 RIDGE AMPLIFIES. ELONGATED TROUGH - CENTRAL
CANADA TO TEXAS BY TUESDAY.  THIS EVOLUTION WILL BRING
CHANCE PRECIP MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  ECMWF WRF GFS &
DIFFER SOME WITH THIS SYSTEM. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS
HOW FAST  COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE IN EASTERN OK NORTHWEST
AR TUESDAY. IF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLY THE TAIL END
OF PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE A
WINTRY MIX. GIVEN THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL
BE TUESDAY WITH  HIGH TEMPS IN LOW/MID 40S DID NOT PUT
POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. AND...THEN
JUST SLIGHT CHANCE EXTREME EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR.

RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION CHRISTMAS DAY WHILE NEXT
UPPER WAVE DIVES FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE ROCKIES.
CHRISTMAS DAY  PROMISES TO OFFER LOTS OF SUN WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT / FRIDAY
LEAVING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND.           GW



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  50  46  54 /   0  10  10  20
FSM   40  50  43  56 /   0  10  10  30
MLC   42  50  47  57 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   37  48  43  53 /   0  10  10  20
FYV   36  46  42  53 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   35  47  41  53 /   0  10  10  30
MKO   40  49  44  55 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   39  48  43  52 /   0  10  20  30
F10   40  49  45  56 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   42  50  45  60 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KOUN 202108
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
308 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BOUNDED BY STRONG INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO
ANYWHERE UNTIL COLD FRONT SURGES IN LATE MONDAY. MIXING ON HIGHER
TERRAIN HAS PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. BACKING/INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING S/WV
EXPECTED TO ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH THE
CLEARING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S BEFORE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS. FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN
THIS ISSUANCE.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT...DEEP AND VERY COLD
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POINTS EAST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BASED SOLELY ON
THICKNESS PROGS AND HISTORICAL H7-H5 THERMAL THRESHOLDS...ONE
MIGHT EXPECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER LEVEL DETERMINISTIC PROGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO STAY TOO WARM FOR TOO LONG FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING NEAR THE
RED RIVER. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED BUT AT THIS TIME NO
MENTION OF SNOW IN LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE.

COOL DOWN WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FROPA
APPEARS TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  50  42  57 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         38  53  38  57 /  10  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  55  41  63 /  10  10  10   0
GAGE OK           34  53  36  55 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     37  49  43  54 /  10  10  10  20
DURANT OK         41  52  45  59 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

10/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 202108
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
308 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BOUNDED BY STRONG INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO
ANYWHERE UNTIL COLD FRONT SURGES IN LATE MONDAY. MIXING ON HIGHER
TERRAIN HAS PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. BACKING/INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING S/WV
EXPECTED TO ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH THE
CLEARING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S BEFORE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS. FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN
THIS ISSUANCE.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT...DEEP AND VERY COLD
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POINTS EAST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BASED SOLELY ON
THICKNESS PROGS AND HISTORICAL H7-H5 THERMAL THRESHOLDS...ONE
MIGHT EXPECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER LEVEL DETERMINISTIC PROGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO STAY TOO WARM FOR TOO LONG FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING NEAR THE
RED RIVER. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED BUT AT THIS TIME NO
MENTION OF SNOW IN LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE.

COOL DOWN WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FROPA
APPEARS TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  50  42  57 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         38  53  38  57 /  10  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  55  41  63 /  10  10  10   0
GAGE OK           34  53  36  55 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     37  49  43  54 /  10  10  10  20
DURANT OK         41  52  45  59 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

10/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 201809
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1209 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER NE OK WILL LIKELY FILL
BACK IN BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS. CEILING
HEIGHTS WILL AGAIN FALL THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH LIFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING/AREAS OF FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
UPDATE SENT TO TWEAK SKY CONDITION AND RAISE TEMPERATURES BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD BACK OVER THIS AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF LIGHT FOG EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NO OTHER
CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 201809
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1209 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER NE OK WILL LIKELY FILL
BACK IN BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS. CEILING
HEIGHTS WILL AGAIN FALL THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH LIFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING/AREAS OF FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
UPDATE SENT TO TWEAK SKY CONDITION AND RAISE TEMPERATURES BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD BACK OVER THIS AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF LIGHT FOG EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NO OTHER
CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KOUN 201747 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1147 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
20/18Z TAFS...PRIMARILY IFR/MVFR FORECAST ALTHOUGH SOME TEMPORARY
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN/WESTER OKLAHOMA
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE TRANSPORT BENEATH STEEP
INVERSION WILL CONTINUE INTO AND THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST MAINLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA TOWARD AND AFTER
06Z. WITH INCREASED LIFT OVERNIGHT AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL COVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
UNTIL 211200. MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE AND CAUSE LOW
VISIBILITY IN FOG AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH SUNDAY. VISIBILITY IN FOG THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 1 MILE IN MOST PLACES, BUT LOW CLOUDS
WILL STAY IN PLACE IN ALL BUT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WINDS TODAY ARE
TURNING TO THE SOUTH WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. THIS
SURFACE-BASED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
FOG TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF DENSE
FOG EARLY SUNDAY AND SOME AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE DRIZZLE. A
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE ARRIVES MONDAY WITH A FRONT FROM THE NORTH
WHICH WILL BRING A DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS. SUNSHINE AND THE LACK
OF AN IMMEDIATE COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S AND MIDDLE 60S FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN, MAINLY EAST OF
OKLAHOMA CITY, ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER DRIER
WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE WHEN A MODEST WARMING TREND BEGINS AND LAST INTO THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  51  40 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         49  37  52  37 /   0  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  38  56  40 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           51  33  53  34 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     49  35  50  40 /   0  10  10  20
DURANT OK         50  38  52  42 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

10/99/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 201747 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1147 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
20/18Z TAFS...PRIMARILY IFR/MVFR FORECAST ALTHOUGH SOME TEMPORARY
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN/WESTER OKLAHOMA
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE TRANSPORT BENEATH STEEP
INVERSION WILL CONTINUE INTO AND THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST MAINLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA TOWARD AND AFTER
06Z. WITH INCREASED LIFT OVERNIGHT AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL COVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
UNTIL 211200. MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE AND CAUSE LOW
VISIBILITY IN FOG AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH SUNDAY. VISIBILITY IN FOG THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 1 MILE IN MOST PLACES, BUT LOW CLOUDS
WILL STAY IN PLACE IN ALL BUT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WINDS TODAY ARE
TURNING TO THE SOUTH WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. THIS
SURFACE-BASED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
FOG TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF DENSE
FOG EARLY SUNDAY AND SOME AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE DRIZZLE. A
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE ARRIVES MONDAY WITH A FRONT FROM THE NORTH
WHICH WILL BRING A DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS. SUNSHINE AND THE LACK
OF AN IMMEDIATE COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S AND MIDDLE 60S FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN, MAINLY EAST OF
OKLAHOMA CITY, ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER DRIER
WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE WHEN A MODEST WARMING TREND BEGINS AND LAST INTO THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  51  40 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         49  37  52  37 /   0  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  38  56  40 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           51  33  53  34 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     49  35  50  40 /   0  10  10  20
DURANT OK         50  38  52  42 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

10/99/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 201639
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1039 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE SENT TO TWEAK SKY CONDITION AND RAISE TEMPERATURES BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD BACK OVER THIS AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF LIGHT FOG EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NO OTHER
CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 201639
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1039 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE SENT TO TWEAK SKY CONDITION AND RAISE TEMPERATURES BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD BACK OVER THIS AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF LIGHT FOG EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NO OTHER
CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12





000
FXUS64 KOUN 201131
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
531 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL COVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
UNTIL 211200. MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE AND CAUSE LOW
VISIBILITY IN FOG AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH SUNDAY. VISIBILITY IN FOG THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 1 MILE IN MOST PLACES, BUT LOW CLOUDS
WILL STAY IN PLACE IN ALL BUT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WINDS TODAY ARE
TURNING TO THE SOUTH WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. THIS
SURFACE-BASED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
FOG TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF DENSE
FOG EARLY SUNDAY AND SOME AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE DRIZZLE. A
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE ARRIVES MONDAY WITH A FRONT FROM THE NORTH
WHICH WILL BRING A DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS. SUNSHINE AND THE LACK
OF AN IMMEDIATE COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S AND MIDDLE 60S FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN, MAINLY EAST OF
OKLAHOMA CITY, ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER DRIER
WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE WHEN A MODEST WARMING TREND BEGINS AND LAST INTO THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  51  40 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         49  37  52  37 /   0  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  38  56  40 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           51  33  53  34 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     49  35  50  40 /   0  10  10  20
DURANT OK         50  38  52  42 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 201131
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
531 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL COVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
UNTIL 211200. MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE AND CAUSE LOW
VISIBILITY IN FOG AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH SUNDAY. VISIBILITY IN FOG THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 1 MILE IN MOST PLACES, BUT LOW CLOUDS
WILL STAY IN PLACE IN ALL BUT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WINDS TODAY ARE
TURNING TO THE SOUTH WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. THIS
SURFACE-BASED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
FOG TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF DENSE
FOG EARLY SUNDAY AND SOME AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE DRIZZLE. A
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE ARRIVES MONDAY WITH A FRONT FROM THE NORTH
WHICH WILL BRING A DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS. SUNSHINE AND THE LACK
OF AN IMMEDIATE COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S AND MIDDLE 60S FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN, MAINLY EAST OF
OKLAHOMA CITY, ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER DRIER
WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE WHEN A MODEST WARMING TREND BEGINS AND LAST INTO THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  51  40 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         49  37  52  37 /   0  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  38  56  40 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           51  33  53  34 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     49  35  50  40 /   0  10  10  20
DURANT OK         50  38  52  42 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09/09



000
FXUS64 KTSA 201100
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY
TUL/RVS SEEING CIG HEIGHTS IN THE VFR CATEGORY AT 11Z AND EVEN AT
THESE TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 12Z OR SOON THEREAFTER.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE A BIT THROUGH THE DAY...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CLOUDS TO EVEN SCATTER OUT IN NE OK MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DIMINISH AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. OBSERVATION SITES ARE
SHOWING A FEW SPOTS WITH VSBYS AROUND 1/4 MILE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. HAVE NOTED SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS NCTRL OK OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND WHILE SOME BREAKS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST.

YET ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING ABUNDANT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. MAY SEE SOME
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN
(ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN SECTIONS) ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

THE PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROF WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH DRY AND SEASONALLY COOL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
SYSTEM...WITH SLY SURFACE FLOW RESULTING IN A RATHER MILD CHRISTMAS
DAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 60S
POSSIBLE ACROSS SE OK.

STILL SEEING SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CHRISTMAS NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS ANY SIGNIFICANT
WINTER PRECIPITATION WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT DOES BRING A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS BY NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 201100
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY
TUL/RVS SEEING CIG HEIGHTS IN THE VFR CATEGORY AT 11Z AND EVEN AT
THESE TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 12Z OR SOON THEREAFTER.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE A BIT THROUGH THE DAY...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CLOUDS TO EVEN SCATTER OUT IN NE OK MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DIMINISH AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. OBSERVATION SITES ARE
SHOWING A FEW SPOTS WITH VSBYS AROUND 1/4 MILE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. HAVE NOTED SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS NCTRL OK OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND WHILE SOME BREAKS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST.

YET ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING ABUNDANT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. MAY SEE SOME
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN
(ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN SECTIONS) ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

THE PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROF WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH DRY AND SEASONALLY COOL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
SYSTEM...WITH SLY SURFACE FLOW RESULTING IN A RATHER MILD CHRISTMAS
DAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 60S
POSSIBLE ACROSS SE OK.

STILL SEEING SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CHRISTMAS NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS ANY SIGNIFICANT
WINTER PRECIPITATION WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT DOES BRING A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS BY NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KOUN 200929
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH SUNDAY. VISIBILITY IN FOG THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 1 MILE IN MOST PLACES, BUT LOW CLOUDS
WILL STAY IN PLACE IN ALL BUT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WINDS TODAY ARE
TURNING TO THE SOUTH WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. THIS
SURFACE-BASED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
FOG TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF DENSE
FOG EARLY SUNDAY AND SOME AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE DRIZZLE. A
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE ARRIVES MONDAY WITH A FRONT FROM THE NORTH
WHICH WILL BRING A DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS. SUNSHINE AND THE LACK
OF AN IMMEDIATE COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S AND MIDDLE 60S FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN, MAINLY EAST OF
OKLAHOMA CITY, ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER DRIER
WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE WHEN A MODEST WARMING TREND BEGINS AND LAST INTO THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  51  40 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         49  37  52  37 /   0  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  38  56  40 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           51  33  53  34 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     49  35  50  40 /   0  10  10  20
DURANT OK         50  38  52  42 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 200929
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH SUNDAY. VISIBILITY IN FOG THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 1 MILE IN MOST PLACES, BUT LOW CLOUDS
WILL STAY IN PLACE IN ALL BUT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WINDS TODAY ARE
TURNING TO THE SOUTH WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. THIS
SURFACE-BASED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
FOG TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF DENSE
FOG EARLY SUNDAY AND SOME AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE DRIZZLE. A
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE ARRIVES MONDAY WITH A FRONT FROM THE NORTH
WHICH WILL BRING A DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS. SUNSHINE AND THE LACK
OF AN IMMEDIATE COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S AND MIDDLE 60S FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN, MAINLY EAST OF
OKLAHOMA CITY, ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER DRIER
WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE WHEN A MODEST WARMING TREND BEGINS AND LAST INTO THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  51  40 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         49  37  52  37 /   0  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  38  56  40 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           51  33  53  34 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     49  35  50  40 /   0  10  10  20
DURANT OK         50  38  52  42 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 200929
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH SUNDAY. VISIBILITY IN FOG THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 1 MILE IN MOST PLACES, BUT LOW CLOUDS
WILL STAY IN PLACE IN ALL BUT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WINDS TODAY ARE
TURNING TO THE SOUTH WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. THIS
SURFACE-BASED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
FOG TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF DENSE
FOG EARLY SUNDAY AND SOME AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE DRIZZLE. A
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE ARRIVES MONDAY WITH A FRONT FROM THE NORTH
WHICH WILL BRING A DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS. SUNSHINE AND THE LACK
OF AN IMMEDIATE COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S AND MIDDLE 60S FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN, MAINLY EAST OF
OKLAHOMA CITY, ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER DRIER
WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE WHEN A MODEST WARMING TREND BEGINS AND LAST INTO THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  51  40 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         49  37  52  37 /   0  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  38  56  40 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           51  33  53  34 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     49  35  50  40 /   0  10  10  20
DURANT OK         50  38  52  42 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 200929
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH SUNDAY. VISIBILITY IN FOG THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 1 MILE IN MOST PLACES, BUT LOW CLOUDS
WILL STAY IN PLACE IN ALL BUT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WINDS TODAY ARE
TURNING TO THE SOUTH WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. THIS
SURFACE-BASED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
FOG TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF DENSE
FOG EARLY SUNDAY AND SOME AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE DRIZZLE. A
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE ARRIVES MONDAY WITH A FRONT FROM THE NORTH
WHICH WILL BRING A DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS. SUNSHINE AND THE LACK
OF AN IMMEDIATE COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S AND MIDDLE 60S FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN, MAINLY EAST OF
OKLAHOMA CITY, ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER DRIER
WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE WHEN A MODEST WARMING TREND BEGINS AND LAST INTO THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  51  40 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         49  37  52  37 /   0  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  38  56  40 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           51  33  53  34 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     49  35  50  40 /   0  10  10  20
DURANT OK         50  38  52  42 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09




000
FXUS64 KTSA 200911
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. OBSERVATION SITES ARE
SHOWING A FEW SPOTS WITH VSBYS AROUND 1/4 MILE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. HAVE NOTED SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS NCTRL OK OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND WHILE SOME BREAKS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST.

YET ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING ABUNDANT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. MAY SEE SOME
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN
(ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN SECTIONS) ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

THE PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROF WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH DRY AND SEASONALLY COOL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
SYSTEM...WITH SLY SURFACE FLOW RESULTING IN A RATHER MILD CHRISTMAS
DAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 60S
POSSIBLE ACROSS SE OK.

STILL SEEING SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CHRISTMAS NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS ANY SIGNIFICANT
WINTER PRECIPITATION WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT DOES BRING A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS BY NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  37  51  42 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   51  38  52  40 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   50  39  52  44 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   48  35  51  39 /   0   0  10  20
FYV   46  33  48  38 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   45  33  48  39 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   49  38  51  41 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   47  36  50  41 /   0   0  10  20
F10   49  39  51  42 /   0  10  10  10
HHW   50  38  52  42 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 200911
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. OBSERVATION SITES ARE
SHOWING A FEW SPOTS WITH VSBYS AROUND 1/4 MILE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. HAVE NOTED SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS NCTRL OK OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND WHILE SOME BREAKS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST.

YET ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING ABUNDANT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. MAY SEE SOME
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN
(ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN SECTIONS) ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

THE PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROF WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH DRY AND SEASONALLY COOL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
SYSTEM...WITH SLY SURFACE FLOW RESULTING IN A RATHER MILD CHRISTMAS
DAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 60S
POSSIBLE ACROSS SE OK.

STILL SEEING SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CHRISTMAS NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS ANY SIGNIFICANT
WINTER PRECIPITATION WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT DOES BRING A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS BY NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  37  51  42 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   51  38  52  40 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   50  39  52  44 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   48  35  51  39 /   0   0  10  20
FYV   46  33  48  38 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   45  33  48  39 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   49  38  51  41 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   47  36  50  41 /   0   0  10  20
F10   49  39  51  42 /   0  10  10  10
HHW   50  38  52  42 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 200911
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. OBSERVATION SITES ARE
SHOWING A FEW SPOTS WITH VSBYS AROUND 1/4 MILE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. HAVE NOTED SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS NCTRL OK OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND WHILE SOME BREAKS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST.

YET ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING ABUNDANT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. MAY SEE SOME
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN
(ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN SECTIONS) ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

THE PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROF WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH DRY AND SEASONALLY COOL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
SYSTEM...WITH SLY SURFACE FLOW RESULTING IN A RATHER MILD CHRISTMAS
DAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 60S
POSSIBLE ACROSS SE OK.

STILL SEEING SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CHRISTMAS NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS ANY SIGNIFICANT
WINTER PRECIPITATION WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT DOES BRING A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS BY NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  37  51  42 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   51  38  52  40 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   50  39  52  44 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   48  35  51  39 /   0   0  10  20
FYV   46  33  48  38 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   45  33  48  39 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   49  38  51  41 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   47  36  50  41 /   0   0  10  20
F10   49  39  51  42 /   0  10  10  10
HHW   50  38  52  42 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 200911
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. OBSERVATION SITES ARE
SHOWING A FEW SPOTS WITH VSBYS AROUND 1/4 MILE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. HAVE NOTED SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS NCTRL OK OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND WHILE SOME BREAKS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST.

YET ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING ABUNDANT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. MAY SEE SOME
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN
(ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN SECTIONS) ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

THE PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROF WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH DRY AND SEASONALLY COOL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
SYSTEM...WITH SLY SURFACE FLOW RESULTING IN A RATHER MILD CHRISTMAS
DAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 60S
POSSIBLE ACROSS SE OK.

STILL SEEING SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CHRISTMAS NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS ANY SIGNIFICANT
WINTER PRECIPITATION WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT DOES BRING A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS BY NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  37  51  42 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   51  38  52  40 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   50  39  52  44 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   48  35  51  39 /   0   0  10  20
FYV   46  33  48  38 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   45  33  48  39 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   49  38  51  41 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   47  36  50  41 /   0   0  10  20
F10   49  39  51  42 /   0  10  10  10
HHW   50  38  52  42 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18





000
FXUS64 KOUN 200548
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

NOT SURE THAT ONGOING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN TO IFR BEFORE 15Z.
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE TO BECOME IFR
BEFORE 15Z. THINK SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR 15-21Z OVER THE AREA
EXCEPT KPNC. VFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AFTER 17Z...BUT ONLY MENTIONED THESE CONDITIONS
AT KGAG AND KWWR. IFR CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 22Z ACROSS THE
AREA.

MBS

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS ARE LIGHT BUT HAVE SHIFTED TO A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION MANY PLACES SO DEWPOINTS NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER MUCH FROM
CURRENT LEVELS. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIRMASS... TEMPS
NOT EXPECTED TO FALL A LOT SO RAISED LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN
MANY AREAS. WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS... PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK REMAINS BLANKETED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE OZARKS. HAVE SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THE FAR WRN EDGE
ACROSS WRN KS AND THE PANHANDLES ON VIS SAT... BUT EXPECT THE LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SAT MORNING. EVEN WITH THE WEAK
H500 TROUGH FINALLY EXITING ACROSS MO/HR... EXPECT PATCHY FOG
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE
REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY... SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD COVER AND FOG
THROUGH NOON. PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUN... AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/H500 SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL BE BEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...
WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK 290K ISENTROPIC RESPONSE... FROM SWRN TO
NORTH CENTRAL OK. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN OK... WITH RAIN CHCS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK
INCREASING SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON AS THE INITIAL SFC FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES ACROSS OK/KS.

FOR MONDAY... AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS... S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE... ALLOWING HIGHS TO PUSH NEAR
60 AS FAR NORTH AS OKC... WITH MID 60S ACROSS TEXOMA. MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONTS ARRIVAL... BUT THERE WILL
REMAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SRN OK/WRN N TX
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER... WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TUE. TEMPS WILL ONLY REBOUND GRADUALLY WED...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

FOR CHRISTMAS... EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS... THE GFS REMAINS
THE WARMER... ALBEIT ONLY SLIGHTLY... OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AS
SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. EITHER WAY...
LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT DAY... WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S IN NRN OK TO THE MID 60S IN WRN N TX. INTO THE
EVENING... THE ECMWF REMAINS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING... BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY. IT REMAINS A RELATIVELY DRY PASSAGE AT FIRST... WITH
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN/SCT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... AND A RETURN OF
COLDER WEATHER.

JTK

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/99/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 200548
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

NOT SURE THAT ONGOING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN TO IFR BEFORE 15Z.
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE TO BECOME IFR
BEFORE 15Z. THINK SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR 15-21Z OVER THE AREA
EXCEPT KPNC. VFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AFTER 17Z...BUT ONLY MENTIONED THESE CONDITIONS
AT KGAG AND KWWR. IFR CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 22Z ACROSS THE
AREA.

MBS

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS ARE LIGHT BUT HAVE SHIFTED TO A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION MANY PLACES SO DEWPOINTS NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER MUCH FROM
CURRENT LEVELS. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIRMASS... TEMPS
NOT EXPECTED TO FALL A LOT SO RAISED LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN
MANY AREAS. WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS... PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK REMAINS BLANKETED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE OZARKS. HAVE SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THE FAR WRN EDGE
ACROSS WRN KS AND THE PANHANDLES ON VIS SAT... BUT EXPECT THE LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SAT MORNING. EVEN WITH THE WEAK
H500 TROUGH FINALLY EXITING ACROSS MO/HR... EXPECT PATCHY FOG
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE
REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY... SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD COVER AND FOG
THROUGH NOON. PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUN... AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/H500 SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL BE BEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...
WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK 290K ISENTROPIC RESPONSE... FROM SWRN TO
NORTH CENTRAL OK. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN OK... WITH RAIN CHCS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK
INCREASING SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON AS THE INITIAL SFC FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES ACROSS OK/KS.

FOR MONDAY... AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS... S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE... ALLOWING HIGHS TO PUSH NEAR
60 AS FAR NORTH AS OKC... WITH MID 60S ACROSS TEXOMA. MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONTS ARRIVAL... BUT THERE WILL
REMAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SRN OK/WRN N TX
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER... WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TUE. TEMPS WILL ONLY REBOUND GRADUALLY WED...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

FOR CHRISTMAS... EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS... THE GFS REMAINS
THE WARMER... ALBEIT ONLY SLIGHTLY... OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AS
SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. EITHER WAY...
LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT DAY... WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S IN NRN OK TO THE MID 60S IN WRN N TX. INTO THE
EVENING... THE ECMWF REMAINS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING... BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY. IT REMAINS A RELATIVELY DRY PASSAGE AT FIRST... WITH
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN/SCT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... AND A RETURN OF
COLDER WEATHER.

JTK

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/99/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 200547
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1147 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LIFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND ALSO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT AS A WAVE
EXITS THE REGION. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG OVER THESE LOCATIONS COULD
ALLOW VISIBILITIES TO FALL INTO THE LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK TO LIFT TO MVFR ACROSS
THE REGION AND POSSIBLY BECOME SCT/BKN SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE SHOWN UP ON RADAR THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO SOME WEAK LIFT FROM A PV MAX PASSING OVERHEAD ATTM. RECENT
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE DRIZZLE IS TAPERING OFF...HOWEVER SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
ALSO...PATCHY FOG IS OBSERVED...ESPECIALLY DOWN AT MCALESTER WHERE
VSBYS HAVE BEEN BELOW 1 STATUTE MILE SINCE THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.

THERE IS OPTIMISM THAT THE SUN WILL ACTUALLY SHOW TOMORROW. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK IS SLOWLY MOVING IN OUR
DIRECTION...AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS COULD BE A SIGN THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO ERODE THE STRATUS LAYER ON SATURDAY. WE SHALL
SEE. TO DATE...TULSA HAS ONLY SEEN 14% OF THE TOTAL POSSIBLE
SUNSHINE MINUTES TO THIS POINT IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. THAT`S A
LOT OF GREY DAYS SO FAR.

LACY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  48  38  51 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   40  52  38  52 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   40  50  38  52 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   34  47  35  51 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   37  47  33  48 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   37  46  32  48 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   37  49  38  51 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   36  47  36  50 /  10   0   0  10
F10   38  48  38  51 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   42  51  38  52 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 200547
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1147 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LIFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND ALSO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT AS A WAVE
EXITS THE REGION. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG OVER THESE LOCATIONS COULD
ALLOW VISIBILITIES TO FALL INTO THE LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK TO LIFT TO MVFR ACROSS
THE REGION AND POSSIBLY BECOME SCT/BKN SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE SHOWN UP ON RADAR THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO SOME WEAK LIFT FROM A PV MAX PASSING OVERHEAD ATTM. RECENT
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE DRIZZLE IS TAPERING OFF...HOWEVER SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
ALSO...PATCHY FOG IS OBSERVED...ESPECIALLY DOWN AT MCALESTER WHERE
VSBYS HAVE BEEN BELOW 1 STATUTE MILE SINCE THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.

THERE IS OPTIMISM THAT THE SUN WILL ACTUALLY SHOW TOMORROW. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK IS SLOWLY MOVING IN OUR
DIRECTION...AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS COULD BE A SIGN THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO ERODE THE STRATUS LAYER ON SATURDAY. WE SHALL
SEE. TO DATE...TULSA HAS ONLY SEEN 14% OF THE TOTAL POSSIBLE
SUNSHINE MINUTES TO THIS POINT IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. THAT`S A
LOT OF GREY DAYS SO FAR.

LACY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  48  38  51 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   40  52  38  52 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   40  50  38  52 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   34  47  35  51 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   37  47  33  48 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   37  46  32  48 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   37  49  38  51 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   36  47  36  50 /  10   0   0  10
F10   38  48  38  51 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   42  51  38  52 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






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