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000
FXUS64 KTSA 191741
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1241 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR
KMLC...KFSM...KFYV...KXNA...KROG. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A
CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS AT KTUL...KRVS...AND KBVO...JUST LESS
LIKELY. EXPECT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...WITH CELLS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST 30-35 KTS. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT IN PRECIPITATION. SEE EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. /SA


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT HAS PUSHED AGGRESSIVELY EASTWARD. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND VWP DATA SUGGEST THE STABILIZED AIRMASS IS 2-3KFT DEEP AND
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF NE OK. UPWARD FORCING CONTINUES TO INCREASE
OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL VORT MAX CENTERED OVER
SW OK AND WITHIN DIFFLUENT REGION OF MID LEVEL SPEED MAX. THE
PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX REMAINS OVER FAR NW OK
AND BOTH ZONES OF FORCING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH INCREASING
LIFT IN THEIR ADVANCE.

THE MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF SHEAR / INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN ACROSS SE OK AND INTO WEST CENTRAL AR...HOWEVER EVEN THIS
REGION MAY BE NORTH OF THE PRIMARY WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL BE
ESTABLISHED FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE ARKLATEX EASTWARD. FURTHER
NORTH THE INFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
LIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE INSTABILITY RECOVERY DESPITE
INCREASINGLY COLD TEMPS ALOFT.

SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURE IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS SE OK INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL /AROUND
2 INCHES IN THE STRONGEST STORMS/ WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL SHEAR
KEEPING THE TORNADIC THREAT LIMITED. FURTHER NORTH A MIXTURE OF
MULTICELL AND PERIODIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IS LIKELY WITH HAIL THE
PRIMARY CONCERN. THE BACKGROUND VORTICITY FIELDS MAY ALLOW FOR
PERIODIC LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND FUNNEL CLOUDS WITH ANY STORMS
FURTHER NORTH...WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS AND A LARGELY STABILIZED
BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST ANY TOR THREAT WILL REMAIN VERY LOW ACROSS
THIS REGION. OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ON OUR WEBPAGE WILL CNOTINUE TO BE
UPDATED WITH THE LATEST THINKING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  46  66  48 /  60  10  10  10
FSM   75  49  70  48 /  50  30  10  10
MLC   73  48  70  44 /  50  10   0  10
BVO   68  43  67  41 /  60  10  10   0
FYV   69  44  62  41 /  50  40  10  10
BYV   69  46  63  43 /  50  60  10   0
MKO   71  45  67  46 /  50  20  10  10
MIO   65  46  65  43 /  50  30  10   0
F10   72  47  68  46 /  50  10   0  10
HHW   73  50  70  44 /  50  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...02





000
FXUS64 KTSA 191741
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1241 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR
KMLC...KFSM...KFYV...KXNA...KROG. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A
CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS AT KTUL...KRVS...AND KBVO...JUST LESS
LIKELY. EXPECT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...WITH CELLS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST 30-35 KTS. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT IN PRECIPITATION. SEE EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. /SA


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT HAS PUSHED AGGRESSIVELY EASTWARD. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND VWP DATA SUGGEST THE STABILIZED AIRMASS IS 2-3KFT DEEP AND
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF NE OK. UPWARD FORCING CONTINUES TO INCREASE
OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL VORT MAX CENTERED OVER
SW OK AND WITHIN DIFFLUENT REGION OF MID LEVEL SPEED MAX. THE
PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX REMAINS OVER FAR NW OK
AND BOTH ZONES OF FORCING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH INCREASING
LIFT IN THEIR ADVANCE.

THE MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF SHEAR / INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN ACROSS SE OK AND INTO WEST CENTRAL AR...HOWEVER EVEN THIS
REGION MAY BE NORTH OF THE PRIMARY WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL BE
ESTABLISHED FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE ARKLATEX EASTWARD. FURTHER
NORTH THE INFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
LIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE INSTABILITY RECOVERY DESPITE
INCREASINGLY COLD TEMPS ALOFT.

SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURE IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS SE OK INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL /AROUND
2 INCHES IN THE STRONGEST STORMS/ WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL SHEAR
KEEPING THE TORNADIC THREAT LIMITED. FURTHER NORTH A MIXTURE OF
MULTICELL AND PERIODIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IS LIKELY WITH HAIL THE
PRIMARY CONCERN. THE BACKGROUND VORTICITY FIELDS MAY ALLOW FOR
PERIODIC LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND FUNNEL CLOUDS WITH ANY STORMS
FURTHER NORTH...WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS AND A LARGELY STABILIZED
BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST ANY TOR THREAT WILL REMAIN VERY LOW ACROSS
THIS REGION. OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ON OUR WEBPAGE WILL CNOTINUE TO BE
UPDATED WITH THE LATEST THINKING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  46  66  48 /  60  10  10  10
FSM   75  49  70  48 /  50  30  10  10
MLC   73  48  70  44 /  50  10   0  10
BVO   68  43  67  41 /  60  10  10   0
FYV   69  44  62  41 /  50  40  10  10
BYV   69  46  63  43 /  50  60  10   0
MKO   71  45  67  46 /  50  20  10  10
MIO   65  46  65  43 /  50  30  10   0
F10   72  47  68  46 /  50  10   0  10
HHW   73  50  70  44 /  50  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...02





000
FXUS64 KTSA 191741
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1241 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR
KMLC...KFSM...KFYV...KXNA...KROG. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A
CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS AT KTUL...KRVS...AND KBVO...JUST LESS
LIKELY. EXPECT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...WITH CELLS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST 30-35 KTS. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT IN PRECIPITATION. SEE EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. /SA


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT HAS PUSHED AGGRESSIVELY EASTWARD. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND VWP DATA SUGGEST THE STABILIZED AIRMASS IS 2-3KFT DEEP AND
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF NE OK. UPWARD FORCING CONTINUES TO INCREASE
OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL VORT MAX CENTERED OVER
SW OK AND WITHIN DIFFLUENT REGION OF MID LEVEL SPEED MAX. THE
PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX REMAINS OVER FAR NW OK
AND BOTH ZONES OF FORCING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH INCREASING
LIFT IN THEIR ADVANCE.

THE MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF SHEAR / INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN ACROSS SE OK AND INTO WEST CENTRAL AR...HOWEVER EVEN THIS
REGION MAY BE NORTH OF THE PRIMARY WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL BE
ESTABLISHED FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE ARKLATEX EASTWARD. FURTHER
NORTH THE INFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
LIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE INSTABILITY RECOVERY DESPITE
INCREASINGLY COLD TEMPS ALOFT.

SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURE IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS SE OK INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL /AROUND
2 INCHES IN THE STRONGEST STORMS/ WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL SHEAR
KEEPING THE TORNADIC THREAT LIMITED. FURTHER NORTH A MIXTURE OF
MULTICELL AND PERIODIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IS LIKELY WITH HAIL THE
PRIMARY CONCERN. THE BACKGROUND VORTICITY FIELDS MAY ALLOW FOR
PERIODIC LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND FUNNEL CLOUDS WITH ANY STORMS
FURTHER NORTH...WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS AND A LARGELY STABILIZED
BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST ANY TOR THREAT WILL REMAIN VERY LOW ACROSS
THIS REGION. OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ON OUR WEBPAGE WILL CNOTINUE TO BE
UPDATED WITH THE LATEST THINKING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  46  66  48 /  60  10  10  10
FSM   75  49  70  48 /  50  30  10  10
MLC   73  48  70  44 /  50  10   0  10
BVO   68  43  67  41 /  60  10  10   0
FYV   69  44  62  41 /  50  40  10  10
BYV   69  46  63  43 /  50  60  10   0
MKO   71  45  67  46 /  50  20  10  10
MIO   65  46  65  43 /  50  30  10   0
F10   72  47  68  46 /  50  10   0  10
HHW   73  50  70  44 /  50  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...02





000
FXUS64 KTSA 191741
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1241 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR
KMLC...KFSM...KFYV...KXNA...KROG. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A
CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS AT KTUL...KRVS...AND KBVO...JUST LESS
LIKELY. EXPECT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...WITH CELLS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST 30-35 KTS. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT IN PRECIPITATION. SEE EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. /SA


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT HAS PUSHED AGGRESSIVELY EASTWARD. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND VWP DATA SUGGEST THE STABILIZED AIRMASS IS 2-3KFT DEEP AND
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF NE OK. UPWARD FORCING CONTINUES TO INCREASE
OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL VORT MAX CENTERED OVER
SW OK AND WITHIN DIFFLUENT REGION OF MID LEVEL SPEED MAX. THE
PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX REMAINS OVER FAR NW OK
AND BOTH ZONES OF FORCING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH INCREASING
LIFT IN THEIR ADVANCE.

THE MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF SHEAR / INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN ACROSS SE OK AND INTO WEST CENTRAL AR...HOWEVER EVEN THIS
REGION MAY BE NORTH OF THE PRIMARY WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL BE
ESTABLISHED FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE ARKLATEX EASTWARD. FURTHER
NORTH THE INFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
LIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE INSTABILITY RECOVERY DESPITE
INCREASINGLY COLD TEMPS ALOFT.

SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURE IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS SE OK INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL /AROUND
2 INCHES IN THE STRONGEST STORMS/ WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL SHEAR
KEEPING THE TORNADIC THREAT LIMITED. FURTHER NORTH A MIXTURE OF
MULTICELL AND PERIODIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IS LIKELY WITH HAIL THE
PRIMARY CONCERN. THE BACKGROUND VORTICITY FIELDS MAY ALLOW FOR
PERIODIC LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND FUNNEL CLOUDS WITH ANY STORMS
FURTHER NORTH...WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS AND A LARGELY STABILIZED
BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST ANY TOR THREAT WILL REMAIN VERY LOW ACROSS
THIS REGION. OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ON OUR WEBPAGE WILL CNOTINUE TO BE
UPDATED WITH THE LATEST THINKING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  46  66  48 /  60  10  10  10
FSM   75  49  70  48 /  50  30  10  10
MLC   73  48  70  44 /  50  10   0  10
BVO   68  43  67  41 /  60  10  10   0
FYV   69  44  62  41 /  50  40  10  10
BYV   69  46  63  43 /  50  60  10   0
MKO   71  45  67  46 /  50  20  10  10
MIO   65  46  65  43 /  50  30  10   0
F10   72  47  68  46 /  50  10   0  10
HHW   73  50  70  44 /  50  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...02





000
FXUS64 KTSA 191625
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1125 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT HAS PUSHED AGGRESSIVELY EASTWARD. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND VWP DATA SUGGEST THE STABILIZED AIRMASS IS 2-3KFT DEEP AND
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF NE OK. UPWARD FORCING CONTINUES TO INCREASE
OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL VORT MAX CENTERED OVER
SW OK AND WITHIN DIFFLUENT REGION OF MID LEVEL SPEED MAX. THE
PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX REMAINS OVER FAR NW OK
AND BOTH ZONES OF FORCING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH INCREASING
LIFT IN THEIR ADVANCE.

THE MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF SHEAR / INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN ACROSS SE OK AND INTO WEST CENTRAL AR...HOWEVER EVEN THIS
REGION MAY BE NORTH OF THE PRIMARY WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL BE
ESTABLISHED FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE ARKLATEX EASTWARD. FURTHER
NORTH THE INFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
LIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE INSTABILITY RECOVERY DESPITE
INCREASINGLY COLD TEMPS ALOFT.

SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURE IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS SE OK INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL /AROUND
2 INCHES IN THE STRONGEST STORMS/ WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL SHEAR
KEEPING THE TORNADIC THREAT LIMITED. FURTHER NORTH A MIXTURE OF
MULTICELL AND PERIODIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IS LIKELY WITH HAIL THE
PRIMARY CONCERN. THE BACKGROUND VORTICITY FIELDS MAY ALLOW FOR
PERIODIC LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND FUNNEL CLOUDS WITH ANY STORMS
FURTHER NORTH...WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS AND A LARGELY STABILIZED
BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST ANY TOR THREAT WILL REMAIN VERY LOW ACROSS
THIS REGION. OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ON OUR WEBPAGE WILL CNOTINUE TO BE
UPDATED WITH THE LATEST THINKING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  46  66  48 /  70  10  10  10
FSM   77  49  70  48 /  70  30  10  10
MLC   75  48  70  44 /  70  10   0  10
BVO   72  43  67  41 /  80  10  10   0
FYV   71  44  62  41 /  70  40  10  10
BYV   71  46  63  43 /  70  60  10   0
MKO   72  45  67  46 /  70  20  10  10
MIO   70  46  65  43 /  80  30  10   0
F10   73  47  68  46 /  70  10   0  10
HHW   79  50  70  44 /  70  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 191625
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1125 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT HAS PUSHED AGGRESSIVELY EASTWARD. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND VWP DATA SUGGEST THE STABILIZED AIRMASS IS 2-3KFT DEEP AND
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF NE OK. UPWARD FORCING CONTINUES TO INCREASE
OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL VORT MAX CENTERED OVER
SW OK AND WITHIN DIFFLUENT REGION OF MID LEVEL SPEED MAX. THE
PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX REMAINS OVER FAR NW OK
AND BOTH ZONES OF FORCING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH INCREASING
LIFT IN THEIR ADVANCE.

THE MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF SHEAR / INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN ACROSS SE OK AND INTO WEST CENTRAL AR...HOWEVER EVEN THIS
REGION MAY BE NORTH OF THE PRIMARY WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL BE
ESTABLISHED FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE ARKLATEX EASTWARD. FURTHER
NORTH THE INFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
LIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE INSTABILITY RECOVERY DESPITE
INCREASINGLY COLD TEMPS ALOFT.

SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURE IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS SE OK INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL /AROUND
2 INCHES IN THE STRONGEST STORMS/ WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL SHEAR
KEEPING THE TORNADIC THREAT LIMITED. FURTHER NORTH A MIXTURE OF
MULTICELL AND PERIODIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IS LIKELY WITH HAIL THE
PRIMARY CONCERN. THE BACKGROUND VORTICITY FIELDS MAY ALLOW FOR
PERIODIC LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND FUNNEL CLOUDS WITH ANY STORMS
FURTHER NORTH...WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS AND A LARGELY STABILIZED
BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST ANY TOR THREAT WILL REMAIN VERY LOW ACROSS
THIS REGION. OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ON OUR WEBPAGE WILL CNOTINUE TO BE
UPDATED WITH THE LATEST THINKING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  46  66  48 /  70  10  10  10
FSM   77  49  70  48 /  70  30  10  10
MLC   75  48  70  44 /  70  10   0  10
BVO   72  43  67  41 /  80  10  10   0
FYV   71  44  62  41 /  70  40  10  10
BYV   71  46  63  43 /  70  60  10   0
MKO   72  45  67  46 /  70  20  10  10
MIO   70  46  65  43 /  80  30  10   0
F10   73  47  68  46 /  70  10   0  10
HHW   79  50  70  44 /  70  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07






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000
FXUS64 KOUN 191147
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT NEARLY ANY
SITE THROUGH 20Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE.

-TSRA WILL AFFECT KPNC THROUGH 15Z AND BRING MVFR CONDITIONS.
ADDITIONAL ISO-NUM TSRA/SHRA WILL FORM MAINLY NORTH OF KHBR-KDUA
17-24Z. KPNC HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED. KOKC AND
KOUN MAY BE AFFECTED MAINLY 19-21Z. BRIEF VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS...
HAIL...AND MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF TSRA DIRECTLY
IMPACTS ANY GIVEN SITE.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT 14-20Z...THEN DIMINISH 23-02Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY IS THE MAIN CONCERN. AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WITH ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS WELL AS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LOW. DOUBT THESE
WILL BE SEVERE DUE TO RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY...GENERALLY AROUND
500 J/KG. HOWEVER...A FEW MAY BE STRONG WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS.

THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL FORM
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS PUSHED THE SLIGHT
RISK WESTWARD WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE TO THE A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
THE NEARBY MID/UPPER LOW. THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE WEAKEST WHILE LOWER
TO NO STORM COVERAGE WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE MUCH HIGHER. STORM STARTING AND
ENDING TIMES WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...SOME SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD. IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST...THE LARGEST HAIL
SIZES WILL BE SMALLER COMPARED TO ANY STORM THAT FORMS OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. DOUBT SEVERE REPORTS WILL BE AS SIGNIFICANT OR
WIDESPREAD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY DUE TO WEAKER INSTABILITY...BUT
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR. DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR AS WELL WITH ANY
STORM OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MUCH
STRONGER. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LOW
LEVEL SHEAR. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE LOW AS
WELL...THOUGH SLOW STORM MOVEMENT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY ALLOW
FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH.

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL STAY JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH MOST GUSTS UNDER 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA 1 TO 8 PM.

TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY END OR MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
BY 7 PM. CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS MAY
RESULT...MAINLY AFTER 4 PM ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. APPEARS THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE LARGE HAIL.
CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR AS WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  45  69  49 /  40  10   0  30
HOBART OK         71  43  70  47 /  20  10   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  46  73  49 /  10  10   0  10
GAGE OK           64  38  68  48 /  30   0  10  40
PONCA CITY OK     68  42  67  47 /  80  10   0  20
DURANT OK         76  50  73  48 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 191147
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT NEARLY ANY
SITE THROUGH 20Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE.

-TSRA WILL AFFECT KPNC THROUGH 15Z AND BRING MVFR CONDITIONS.
ADDITIONAL ISO-NUM TSRA/SHRA WILL FORM MAINLY NORTH OF KHBR-KDUA
17-24Z. KPNC HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED. KOKC AND
KOUN MAY BE AFFECTED MAINLY 19-21Z. BRIEF VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS...
HAIL...AND MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF TSRA DIRECTLY
IMPACTS ANY GIVEN SITE.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT 14-20Z...THEN DIMINISH 23-02Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY IS THE MAIN CONCERN. AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WITH ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS WELL AS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LOW. DOUBT THESE
WILL BE SEVERE DUE TO RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY...GENERALLY AROUND
500 J/KG. HOWEVER...A FEW MAY BE STRONG WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS.

THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL FORM
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS PUSHED THE SLIGHT
RISK WESTWARD WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE TO THE A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
THE NEARBY MID/UPPER LOW. THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE WEAKEST WHILE LOWER
TO NO STORM COVERAGE WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE MUCH HIGHER. STORM STARTING AND
ENDING TIMES WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...SOME SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD. IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST...THE LARGEST HAIL
SIZES WILL BE SMALLER COMPARED TO ANY STORM THAT FORMS OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. DOUBT SEVERE REPORTS WILL BE AS SIGNIFICANT OR
WIDESPREAD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY DUE TO WEAKER INSTABILITY...BUT
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR. DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR AS WELL WITH ANY
STORM OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MUCH
STRONGER. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LOW
LEVEL SHEAR. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE LOW AS
WELL...THOUGH SLOW STORM MOVEMENT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY ALLOW
FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH.

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL STAY JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH MOST GUSTS UNDER 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA 1 TO 8 PM.

TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY END OR MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
BY 7 PM. CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS MAY
RESULT...MAINLY AFTER 4 PM ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. APPEARS THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE LARGE HAIL.
CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR AS WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  45  69  49 /  40  10   0  30
HOBART OK         71  43  70  47 /  20  10   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  46  73  49 /  10  10   0  10
GAGE OK           64  38  68  48 /  30   0  10  40
PONCA CITY OK     68  42  67  47 /  80  10   0  20
DURANT OK         76  50  73  48 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 191147
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT NEARLY ANY
SITE THROUGH 20Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE.

-TSRA WILL AFFECT KPNC THROUGH 15Z AND BRING MVFR CONDITIONS.
ADDITIONAL ISO-NUM TSRA/SHRA WILL FORM MAINLY NORTH OF KHBR-KDUA
17-24Z. KPNC HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED. KOKC AND
KOUN MAY BE AFFECTED MAINLY 19-21Z. BRIEF VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS...
HAIL...AND MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF TSRA DIRECTLY
IMPACTS ANY GIVEN SITE.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT 14-20Z...THEN DIMINISH 23-02Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY IS THE MAIN CONCERN. AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WITH ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS WELL AS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LOW. DOUBT THESE
WILL BE SEVERE DUE TO RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY...GENERALLY AROUND
500 J/KG. HOWEVER...A FEW MAY BE STRONG WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS.

THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL FORM
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS PUSHED THE SLIGHT
RISK WESTWARD WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE TO THE A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
THE NEARBY MID/UPPER LOW. THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE WEAKEST WHILE LOWER
TO NO STORM COVERAGE WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE MUCH HIGHER. STORM STARTING AND
ENDING TIMES WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...SOME SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD. IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST...THE LARGEST HAIL
SIZES WILL BE SMALLER COMPARED TO ANY STORM THAT FORMS OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. DOUBT SEVERE REPORTS WILL BE AS SIGNIFICANT OR
WIDESPREAD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY DUE TO WEAKER INSTABILITY...BUT
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR. DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR AS WELL WITH ANY
STORM OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MUCH
STRONGER. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LOW
LEVEL SHEAR. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE LOW AS
WELL...THOUGH SLOW STORM MOVEMENT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY ALLOW
FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH.

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL STAY JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH MOST GUSTS UNDER 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA 1 TO 8 PM.

TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY END OR MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
BY 7 PM. CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS MAY
RESULT...MAINLY AFTER 4 PM ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. APPEARS THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE LARGE HAIL.
CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR AS WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  45  69  49 /  40  10   0  30
HOBART OK         71  43  70  47 /  20  10   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  46  73  49 /  10  10   0  10
GAGE OK           64  38  68  48 /  30   0  10  40
PONCA CITY OK     68  42  67  47 /  80  10   0  20
DURANT OK         76  50  73  48 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 191147
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT NEARLY ANY
SITE THROUGH 20Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE.

-TSRA WILL AFFECT KPNC THROUGH 15Z AND BRING MVFR CONDITIONS.
ADDITIONAL ISO-NUM TSRA/SHRA WILL FORM MAINLY NORTH OF KHBR-KDUA
17-24Z. KPNC HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED. KOKC AND
KOUN MAY BE AFFECTED MAINLY 19-21Z. BRIEF VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS...
HAIL...AND MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF TSRA DIRECTLY
IMPACTS ANY GIVEN SITE.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT 14-20Z...THEN DIMINISH 23-02Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY IS THE MAIN CONCERN. AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WITH ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS WELL AS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LOW. DOUBT THESE
WILL BE SEVERE DUE TO RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY...GENERALLY AROUND
500 J/KG. HOWEVER...A FEW MAY BE STRONG WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS.

THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL FORM
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS PUSHED THE SLIGHT
RISK WESTWARD WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE TO THE A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
THE NEARBY MID/UPPER LOW. THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE WEAKEST WHILE LOWER
TO NO STORM COVERAGE WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE MUCH HIGHER. STORM STARTING AND
ENDING TIMES WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...SOME SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD. IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST...THE LARGEST HAIL
SIZES WILL BE SMALLER COMPARED TO ANY STORM THAT FORMS OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. DOUBT SEVERE REPORTS WILL BE AS SIGNIFICANT OR
WIDESPREAD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY DUE TO WEAKER INSTABILITY...BUT
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR. DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR AS WELL WITH ANY
STORM OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MUCH
STRONGER. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LOW
LEVEL SHEAR. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE LOW AS
WELL...THOUGH SLOW STORM MOVEMENT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY ALLOW
FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH.

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL STAY JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH MOST GUSTS UNDER 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA 1 TO 8 PM.

TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY END OR MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
BY 7 PM. CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS MAY
RESULT...MAINLY AFTER 4 PM ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. APPEARS THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE LARGE HAIL.
CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR AS WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  45  69  49 /  40  10   0  30
HOBART OK         71  43  70  47 /  20  10   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  46  73  49 /  10  10   0  10
GAGE OK           64  38  68  48 /  30   0  10  40
PONCA CITY OK     68  42  67  47 /  80  10   0  20
DURANT OK         76  50  73  48 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 191147
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT NEARLY ANY
SITE THROUGH 20Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE.

-TSRA WILL AFFECT KPNC THROUGH 15Z AND BRING MVFR CONDITIONS.
ADDITIONAL ISO-NUM TSRA/SHRA WILL FORM MAINLY NORTH OF KHBR-KDUA
17-24Z. KPNC HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED. KOKC AND
KOUN MAY BE AFFECTED MAINLY 19-21Z. BRIEF VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS...
HAIL...AND MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF TSRA DIRECTLY
IMPACTS ANY GIVEN SITE.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT 14-20Z...THEN DIMINISH 23-02Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY IS THE MAIN CONCERN. AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WITH ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS WELL AS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LOW. DOUBT THESE
WILL BE SEVERE DUE TO RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY...GENERALLY AROUND
500 J/KG. HOWEVER...A FEW MAY BE STRONG WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS.

THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL FORM
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS PUSHED THE SLIGHT
RISK WESTWARD WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE TO THE A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
THE NEARBY MID/UPPER LOW. THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE WEAKEST WHILE LOWER
TO NO STORM COVERAGE WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE MUCH HIGHER. STORM STARTING AND
ENDING TIMES WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...SOME SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD. IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST...THE LARGEST HAIL
SIZES WILL BE SMALLER COMPARED TO ANY STORM THAT FORMS OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. DOUBT SEVERE REPORTS WILL BE AS SIGNIFICANT OR
WIDESPREAD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY DUE TO WEAKER INSTABILITY...BUT
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR. DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR AS WELL WITH ANY
STORM OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MUCH
STRONGER. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LOW
LEVEL SHEAR. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE LOW AS
WELL...THOUGH SLOW STORM MOVEMENT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY ALLOW
FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH.

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL STAY JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH MOST GUSTS UNDER 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA 1 TO 8 PM.

TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY END OR MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
BY 7 PM. CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS MAY
RESULT...MAINLY AFTER 4 PM ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. APPEARS THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE LARGE HAIL.
CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR AS WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  45  69  49 /  40  10   0  30
HOBART OK         71  43  70  47 /  20  10   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  46  73  49 /  10  10   0  10
GAGE OK           64  38  68  48 /  30   0  10  40
PONCA CITY OK     68  42  67  47 /  80  10   0  20
DURANT OK         76  50  73  48 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 191140
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
640 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL
RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS ~25 KTS. BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NE OK TAF SITES...AND WILL TRANSLATE EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES PAST
THE SE OK AND NW AR TAF SITES BY EARLY EVENING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LINGERING SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. IN
RESPONSE...DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL
TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF LOW AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SUPER-CELLS/VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY BACKED
SURFACE WINDS NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND ALONG ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
MAY PROVIDE AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ENDING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH MILD/DRY CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A FEW
ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY AS FAST MOVING UPPER
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING AS
MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK.
COULD SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 191140
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
640 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL
RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS ~25 KTS. BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NE OK TAF SITES...AND WILL TRANSLATE EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES PAST
THE SE OK AND NW AR TAF SITES BY EARLY EVENING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LINGERING SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. IN
RESPONSE...DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL
TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF LOW AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SUPER-CELLS/VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY BACKED
SURFACE WINDS NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND ALONG ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
MAY PROVIDE AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ENDING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH MILD/DRY CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A FEW
ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY AS FAST MOVING UPPER
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING AS
MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK.
COULD SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 191140
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
640 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL
RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS ~25 KTS. BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NE OK TAF SITES...AND WILL TRANSLATE EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES PAST
THE SE OK AND NW AR TAF SITES BY EARLY EVENING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LINGERING SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. IN
RESPONSE...DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL
TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF LOW AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SUPER-CELLS/VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY BACKED
SURFACE WINDS NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND ALONG ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
MAY PROVIDE AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ENDING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH MILD/DRY CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A FEW
ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY AS FAST MOVING UPPER
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING AS
MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK.
COULD SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KOUN 190926
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
426 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY IS THE MAIN CONCERN. AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WITH ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS WELL AS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LOW. DOUBT THESE
WILL BE SEVERE DUE TO RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY...GENERALLY AROUND
500 J/KG. HOWEVER...A FEW MAY BE STRONG WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS.

THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL FORM
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS PUSHED THE SLIGHT
RISK WESTWARD WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE TO THE A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
THE NEARBY MID/UPPER LOW. THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE WEAKEST WHILE LOWER
TO NO STORM COVERAGE WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE MUCH HIGHER. STORM STARTING AND
ENDING TIMES WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...SOME SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD. IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST...THE LARGEST HAIL
SIZES WILL BE SMALLER COMPARED TO ANY STORM THAT FORMS OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. DOUBT SEVERE REPORTS WILL BE AS SIGNIFICANT OR
WIDESPREAD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY DUE TO WEAKER INSTABILITY...BUT
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR. DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR AS WELL WITH ANY
STORM OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MUCH
STRONGER. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LOW
LEVEL SHEAR. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE LOW AS
WELL...THOUGH SLOW STORM MOVEMENT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY ALLOW
FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH.

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL STAY JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH MOST GUSTS UNDER 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA 1 TO 8 PM.

TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY END OR MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
BY 7 PM. CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS MAY
RESULT...MAINLY AFTER 4 PM ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. APPEARS THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE LARGE HAIL.
CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR AS WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  45  69  49 /  40  10   0  30
HOBART OK         71  43  70  47 /  20  10   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  46  73  49 /  10  10   0  10
GAGE OK           64  38  68  48 /  30   0  10  40
PONCA CITY OK     68  42  67  47 /  80  10   0  20
DURANT OK         76  50  73  48 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 190926
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
426 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY IS THE MAIN CONCERN. AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WITH ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS WELL AS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LOW. DOUBT THESE
WILL BE SEVERE DUE TO RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY...GENERALLY AROUND
500 J/KG. HOWEVER...A FEW MAY BE STRONG WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS.

THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL FORM
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS PUSHED THE SLIGHT
RISK WESTWARD WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE TO THE A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
THE NEARBY MID/UPPER LOW. THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE WEAKEST WHILE LOWER
TO NO STORM COVERAGE WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE MUCH HIGHER. STORM STARTING AND
ENDING TIMES WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...SOME SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD. IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST...THE LARGEST HAIL
SIZES WILL BE SMALLER COMPARED TO ANY STORM THAT FORMS OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. DOUBT SEVERE REPORTS WILL BE AS SIGNIFICANT OR
WIDESPREAD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY DUE TO WEAKER INSTABILITY...BUT
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR. DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR AS WELL WITH ANY
STORM OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MUCH
STRONGER. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LOW
LEVEL SHEAR. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE LOW AS
WELL...THOUGH SLOW STORM MOVEMENT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY ALLOW
FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH.

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL STAY JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH MOST GUSTS UNDER 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA 1 TO 8 PM.

TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY END OR MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
BY 7 PM. CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS MAY
RESULT...MAINLY AFTER 4 PM ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. APPEARS THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE LARGE HAIL.
CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR AS WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  45  69  49 /  40  10   0  30
HOBART OK         71  43  70  47 /  20  10   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  46  73  49 /  10  10   0  10
GAGE OK           64  38  68  48 /  30   0  10  40
PONCA CITY OK     68  42  67  47 /  80  10   0  20
DURANT OK         76  50  73  48 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 190813
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
313 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LINGERING SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. IN
RESPONSE...DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL
TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF LOW AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SUPER-CELLS/VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY BACKED
SURFACE WINDS NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND ALONG ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
MAY PROVIDE AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ENDING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH MILD/DRY CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A FEW
ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY AS FAST MOVING UPPER
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING AS
MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK.
COULD SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  45  66  48 /  70  10  10  10
FSM   77  48  70  48 /  70  30  10  10
MLC   75  47  68  44 /  70  10   0  10
BVO   71  42  67  41 /  80  10  10   0
FYV   71  43  62  41 /  70  40  10  10
BYV   71  45  63  43 /  70  50  10   0
MKO   72  44  66  46 /  70  20  10  10
MIO   70  45  65  43 /  80  30  10   0
F10   73  46  66  46 /  70  10   0  10
HHW   79  48  69  44 /  60  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 190813
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
313 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LINGERING SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. IN
RESPONSE...DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL
TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF LOW AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SUPER-CELLS/VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY BACKED
SURFACE WINDS NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND ALONG ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
MAY PROVIDE AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ENDING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH MILD/DRY CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A FEW
ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY AS FAST MOVING UPPER
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING AS
MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK.
COULD SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  45  66  48 /  70  10  10  10
FSM   77  48  70  48 /  70  30  10  10
MLC   75  47  68  44 /  70  10   0  10
BVO   71  42  67  41 /  80  10  10   0
FYV   71  43  62  41 /  70  40  10  10
BYV   71  45  63  43 /  70  50  10   0
MKO   72  44  66  46 /  70  20  10  10
MIO   70  45  65  43 /  80  30  10   0
F10   73  46  66  46 /  70  10   0  10
HHW   79  48  69  44 /  60  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 190813
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
313 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LINGERING SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. IN
RESPONSE...DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL
TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF LOW AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SUPER-CELLS/VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY BACKED
SURFACE WINDS NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND ALONG ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
MAY PROVIDE AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ENDING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH MILD/DRY CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A FEW
ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY AS FAST MOVING UPPER
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING AS
MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK.
COULD SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  45  66  48 /  70  10  10  10
FSM   77  48  70  48 /  70  30  10  10
MLC   75  47  68  44 /  70  10   0  10
BVO   71  42  67  41 /  80  10  10   0
FYV   71  43  62  41 /  70  40  10  10
BYV   71  45  63  43 /  70  50  10   0
MKO   72  44  66  46 /  70  20  10  10
MIO   70  45  65  43 /  80  30  10   0
F10   73  46  66  46 /  70  10   0  10
HHW   79  48  69  44 /  60  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 190813
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
313 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LINGERING SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. IN
RESPONSE...DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL
TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF LOW AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SUPER-CELLS/VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY BACKED
SURFACE WINDS NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND ALONG ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
MAY PROVIDE AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ENDING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH MILD/DRY CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A FEW
ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY AS FAST MOVING UPPER
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING AS
MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK.
COULD SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  45  66  48 /  70  10  10  10
FSM   77  48  70  48 /  70  30  10  10
MLC   75  47  68  44 /  70  10   0  10
BVO   71  42  67  41 /  80  10  10   0
FYV   71  43  62  41 /  70  40  10  10
BYV   71  45  63  43 /  70  50  10   0
MKO   72  44  66  46 /  70  20  10  10
MIO   70  45  65  43 /  80  30  10   0
F10   73  46  66  46 /  70  10   0  10
HHW   79  48  69  44 /  60  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 190813
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
313 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LINGERING SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. IN
RESPONSE...DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL
TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF LOW AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SUPER-CELLS/VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY BACKED
SURFACE WINDS NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND ALONG ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
MAY PROVIDE AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ENDING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH MILD/DRY CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A FEW
ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY AS FAST MOVING UPPER
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING AS
MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK.
COULD SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  45  66  48 /  70  10  10  10
FSM   77  48  70  48 /  70  30  10  10
MLC   75  47  68  44 /  70  10   0  10
BVO   71  42  67  41 /  80  10  10   0
FYV   71  43  62  41 /  70  40  10  10
BYV   71  45  63  43 /  70  50  10   0
MKO   72  44  66  46 /  70  20  10  10
MIO   70  45  65  43 /  80  30  10   0
F10   73  46  66  46 /  70  10   0  10
HHW   79  48  69  44 /  60  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 190813
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
313 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LINGERING SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. IN
RESPONSE...DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL
TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF LOW AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SUPER-CELLS/VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY BACKED
SURFACE WINDS NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND ALONG ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
MAY PROVIDE AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ENDING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH MILD/DRY CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A FEW
ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY AS FAST MOVING UPPER
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING AS
MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK.
COULD SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  45  66  48 /  70  10  10  10
FSM   77  48  70  48 /  70  30  10  10
MLC   75  47  68  44 /  70  10   0  10
BVO   71  42  67  41 /  80  10  10   0
FYV   71  43  62  41 /  70  40  10  10
BYV   71  45  63  43 /  70  50  10   0
MKO   72  44  66  46 /  70  20  10  10
MIO   70  45  65  43 /  80  30  10   0
F10   73  46  66  46 /  70  10   0  10
HHW   79  48  69  44 /  60  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 190813
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
313 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LINGERING SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. IN
RESPONSE...DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL
TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF LOW AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SUPER-CELLS/VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY BACKED
SURFACE WINDS NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND ALONG ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
MAY PROVIDE AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ENDING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH MILD/DRY CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A FEW
ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY AS FAST MOVING UPPER
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING AS
MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK.
COULD SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  45  66  48 /  70  10  10  10
FSM   77  48  70  48 /  70  30  10  10
MLC   75  47  68  44 /  70  10   0  10
BVO   71  42  67  41 /  80  10  10   0
FYV   71  43  62  41 /  70  40  10  10
BYV   71  45  63  43 /  70  50  10   0
MKO   72  44  66  46 /  70  20  10  10
MIO   70  45  65  43 /  80  30  10   0
F10   73  46  66  46 /  70  10   0  10
HHW   79  48  69  44 /  60  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 190813
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
313 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LINGERING SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. IN
RESPONSE...DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL
TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF LOW AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SUPER-CELLS/VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY BACKED
SURFACE WINDS NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND ALONG ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
MAY PROVIDE AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ENDING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH MILD/DRY CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A FEW
ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY AS FAST MOVING UPPER
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING AS
MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK.
COULD SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  45  66  48 /  70  10  10  10
FSM   77  48  70  48 /  70  30  10  10
MLC   75  47  68  44 /  70  10   0  10
BVO   71  42  67  41 /  80  10  10   0
FYV   71  43  62  41 /  70  40  10  10
BYV   71  45  63  43 /  70  50  10   0
MKO   72  44  66  46 /  70  20  10  10
MIO   70  45  65  43 /  80  30  10   0
F10   73  46  66  46 /  70  10   0  10
HHW   79  48  69  44 /  60  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KOUN 190437
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1137 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
19/06Z TAF DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

&&

.AVIATION...
FOLLOWING TRENDS... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD FOR ALL SITES. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF -SHRA OR -TSRA
AT KPNC MID TO LATE MORNING TODAY... BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR A
TEMPO. WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM
THE PRIOR EVENING CONVECTION. HOWEVER... WINDS SHOULD SETTLE AND
PERSIST FROM THE SOUTH... SLOWLY SHIFTING AND INCREASING OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES S/SE ACROSS THE REGION.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  77  56  69  44 /  50  70  40   0
HOBART OK         74  53  69  42 /  50  40  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  54  72  45 /  60  40  10   0
GAGE OK           72  47  61  38 /  50  50  30   0
PONCA CITY OK     76  54  68  42 /  50  70  60  10
DURANT OK         82  58  77  49 /  30  60  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 190431
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1131 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING EASTERN OKLAHOMA TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO STILL BE AN
ISSUE AT THE NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
KEEPING AN EYE ON TWO AREAS OF STORMS THIS
EVENING...ONE ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND ANOTHER
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OK INTO NRN TX. ALL THIS
ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST INTO AN INCREASINGLY
STABLE AIRMASS...SO EXPECT A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL COULD
SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL
HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS AND STORM
SEGMENTS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WERE SENT EARLIER THIS EVENING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 190431
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1131 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING EASTERN OKLAHOMA TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO STILL BE AN
ISSUE AT THE NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
KEEPING AN EYE ON TWO AREAS OF STORMS THIS
EVENING...ONE ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND ANOTHER
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OK INTO NRN TX. ALL THIS
ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST INTO AN INCREASINGLY
STABLE AIRMASS...SO EXPECT A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL COULD
SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL
HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS AND STORM
SEGMENTS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WERE SENT EARLIER THIS EVENING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 190431
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1131 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING EASTERN OKLAHOMA TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO STILL BE AN
ISSUE AT THE NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
KEEPING AN EYE ON TWO AREAS OF STORMS THIS
EVENING...ONE ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND ANOTHER
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OK INTO NRN TX. ALL THIS
ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST INTO AN INCREASINGLY
STABLE AIRMASS...SO EXPECT A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL COULD
SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL
HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS AND STORM
SEGMENTS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WERE SENT EARLIER THIS EVENING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 190214
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
914 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
KEEPING AN EYE ON TWO AREAS OF STORMS THIS
EVENING...ONE ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND ANOTHER
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OK INTO NRN TX. ALL THIS
ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST INTO AN INCREASINGLY
STABLE AIRMASS...SO EXPECT A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL COULD
SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL
HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS AND STORM
SEGMENTS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WERE SENT EARLIER THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  72  46  67 /  70  50  10   0
FSM   59  76  49  69 /  50  70  30  10
MLC   58  75  48  69 /  70  40  10   0
BVO   55  70  44  66 /  70  70  10  10
FYV   53  69  45  63 /  30  70  50  10
BYV   55  70  46  64 /  30  70  50  10
MKO   56  72  46  67 /  40  50  10  10
MIO   55  69  46  64 /  60  70  30  10
F10   57  72  46  67 /  70  40  10   0
HHW   58  78  49  69 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 190214
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
914 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
KEEPING AN EYE ON TWO AREAS OF STORMS THIS
EVENING...ONE ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND ANOTHER
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OK INTO NRN TX. ALL THIS
ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST INTO AN INCREASINGLY
STABLE AIRMASS...SO EXPECT A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL COULD
SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL
HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS AND STORM
SEGMENTS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WERE SENT EARLIER THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  72  46  67 /  70  50  10   0
FSM   59  76  49  69 /  50  70  30  10
MLC   58  75  48  69 /  70  40  10   0
BVO   55  70  44  66 /  70  70  10  10
FYV   53  69  45  63 /  30  70  50  10
BYV   55  70  46  64 /  30  70  50  10
MKO   56  72  46  67 /  40  50  10  10
MIO   55  69  46  64 /  60  70  30  10
F10   57  72  46  67 /  70  40  10   0
HHW   58  78  49  69 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18





000
FXUS64 KOUN 182359 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
659 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...19/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ACTIVE AVIATION FORECAST FOR MANY AIRFIELDS TONIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TAF SITES THROUGH MIDNIGHT
THIS EVENING. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS AS ANY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS
AREA AERODROMES. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT... SLOWLY VEERING TO THE W/NW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO FLIRT WITH MVFR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH CEILINGS SLOWLY RECOVERING THROUGH MID DAY.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO PRECIP/WX OVERNIGHT...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN OK AND WRN
N TX THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THROUGH
THE EVENING... WITH MOST STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THROUGH 23Z... THE DRYLINE WAS VISIBLE ON
KFDR REACHING AS FAR AS WRN WILBARGER AND BAYLOR COUNTIES... AND
HAS STARTED TO SHOW SIGNS OF SLOWLY RETREATING WESTWARD. VIS SAT
SHOWS SOME CONTINUAL CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT
RETREATS. GIVEN SUPPORT ALOFT FROM THE STOUT UPPER LOW... EXPECT
STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS TEXOMA. EXPECT INSTABILITY TO
SLOWLY START A DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS THE REGION... WITH CURRENT
CONVECTION SLOWLY FILLING IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK THROUGH 7 TO 8 PM
CDT. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF A FAIRLY LONG
LINE FROM THE RED RIVER TO THE OK/KS BORDER DEVELOPING THROUGH 8PM
AND MOVING EASTWARD AS A COMPLEX ACROSS CENTRAL OK OVERNIGHT. THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN THROUGH SUNSET... WITH
THE BEST CHANCE REMAINING IN NW OK... WHERE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LINGER RESULTING IN INCREASED LL SHEAR. WITH THAT
SAID... STORMS IN THE NORTH HAVE TRIED THEIR BEST... WITH REPORTS
OF FUNNELS BUT NO TORNADOES. THROUGH SUNSET... HAIL AND WIND WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO A LINE AND GET SOME
SUPPORT FROM A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE LLJ.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GETTING BUSY... SO THIS WILL BE SHORT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW CONT TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SHIFT EAST TOMORROW.
AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
UNDER THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY. WITH COLD
TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW... COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS.

WILL THEN SEE A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS BEFORE ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD
BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LINGERING REALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. NO REAL STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE... BUT IT IS
GETTING TO BE LATE APRIL... SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  72  44  66 /  70  30   0   0
HOBART OK         53  71  42  67 /  30  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  75  45  70 /  40  10   0   0
GAGE OK           48  65  38  65 /  50  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     56  71  42  65 /  70  60  10   0
DURANT OK         57  77  49  70 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 182359 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
659 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...19/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ACTIVE AVIATION FORECAST FOR MANY AIRFIELDS TONIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TAF SITES THROUGH MIDNIGHT
THIS EVENING. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS AS ANY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS
AREA AERODROMES. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT... SLOWLY VEERING TO THE W/NW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO FLIRT WITH MVFR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH CEILINGS SLOWLY RECOVERING THROUGH MID DAY.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO PRECIP/WX OVERNIGHT...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN OK AND WRN
N TX THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THROUGH
THE EVENING... WITH MOST STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THROUGH 23Z... THE DRYLINE WAS VISIBLE ON
KFDR REACHING AS FAR AS WRN WILBARGER AND BAYLOR COUNTIES... AND
HAS STARTED TO SHOW SIGNS OF SLOWLY RETREATING WESTWARD. VIS SAT
SHOWS SOME CONTINUAL CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT
RETREATS. GIVEN SUPPORT ALOFT FROM THE STOUT UPPER LOW... EXPECT
STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS TEXOMA. EXPECT INSTABILITY TO
SLOWLY START A DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS THE REGION... WITH CURRENT
CONVECTION SLOWLY FILLING IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK THROUGH 7 TO 8 PM
CDT. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF A FAIRLY LONG
LINE FROM THE RED RIVER TO THE OK/KS BORDER DEVELOPING THROUGH 8PM
AND MOVING EASTWARD AS A COMPLEX ACROSS CENTRAL OK OVERNIGHT. THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN THROUGH SUNSET... WITH
THE BEST CHANCE REMAINING IN NW OK... WHERE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LINGER RESULTING IN INCREASED LL SHEAR. WITH THAT
SAID... STORMS IN THE NORTH HAVE TRIED THEIR BEST... WITH REPORTS
OF FUNNELS BUT NO TORNADOES. THROUGH SUNSET... HAIL AND WIND WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO A LINE AND GET SOME
SUPPORT FROM A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE LLJ.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GETTING BUSY... SO THIS WILL BE SHORT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW CONT TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SHIFT EAST TOMORROW.
AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
UNDER THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY. WITH COLD
TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW... COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS.

WILL THEN SEE A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS BEFORE ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD
BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LINGERING REALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. NO REAL STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE... BUT IT IS
GETTING TO BE LATE APRIL... SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  72  44  66 /  70  30   0   0
HOBART OK         53  71  42  67 /  30  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  75  45  70 /  40  10   0   0
GAGE OK           48  65  38  65 /  50  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     56  71  42  65 /  70  60  10   0
DURANT OK         57  77  49  70 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 182359 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
659 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...19/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ACTIVE AVIATION FORECAST FOR MANY AIRFIELDS TONIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TAF SITES THROUGH MIDNIGHT
THIS EVENING. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS AS ANY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS
AREA AERODROMES. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT... SLOWLY VEERING TO THE W/NW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO FLIRT WITH MVFR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH CEILINGS SLOWLY RECOVERING THROUGH MID DAY.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO PRECIP/WX OVERNIGHT...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN OK AND WRN
N TX THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THROUGH
THE EVENING... WITH MOST STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THROUGH 23Z... THE DRYLINE WAS VISIBLE ON
KFDR REACHING AS FAR AS WRN WILBARGER AND BAYLOR COUNTIES... AND
HAS STARTED TO SHOW SIGNS OF SLOWLY RETREATING WESTWARD. VIS SAT
SHOWS SOME CONTINUAL CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT
RETREATS. GIVEN SUPPORT ALOFT FROM THE STOUT UPPER LOW... EXPECT
STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS TEXOMA. EXPECT INSTABILITY TO
SLOWLY START A DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS THE REGION... WITH CURRENT
CONVECTION SLOWLY FILLING IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK THROUGH 7 TO 8 PM
CDT. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF A FAIRLY LONG
LINE FROM THE RED RIVER TO THE OK/KS BORDER DEVELOPING THROUGH 8PM
AND MOVING EASTWARD AS A COMPLEX ACROSS CENTRAL OK OVERNIGHT. THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN THROUGH SUNSET... WITH
THE BEST CHANCE REMAINING IN NW OK... WHERE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LINGER RESULTING IN INCREASED LL SHEAR. WITH THAT
SAID... STORMS IN THE NORTH HAVE TRIED THEIR BEST... WITH REPORTS
OF FUNNELS BUT NO TORNADOES. THROUGH SUNSET... HAIL AND WIND WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO A LINE AND GET SOME
SUPPORT FROM A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE LLJ.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GETTING BUSY... SO THIS WILL BE SHORT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW CONT TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SHIFT EAST TOMORROW.
AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
UNDER THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY. WITH COLD
TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW... COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS.

WILL THEN SEE A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS BEFORE ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD
BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LINGERING REALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. NO REAL STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE... BUT IT IS
GETTING TO BE LATE APRIL... SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  72  44  66 /  70  30   0   0
HOBART OK         53  71  42  67 /  30  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  75  45  70 /  40  10   0   0
GAGE OK           48  65  38  65 /  50  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     56  71  42  65 /  70  60  10   0
DURANT OK         57  77  49  70 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 182359 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
659 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...19/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ACTIVE AVIATION FORECAST FOR MANY AIRFIELDS TONIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TAF SITES THROUGH MIDNIGHT
THIS EVENING. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS AS ANY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS
AREA AERODROMES. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT... SLOWLY VEERING TO THE W/NW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO FLIRT WITH MVFR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH CEILINGS SLOWLY RECOVERING THROUGH MID DAY.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO PRECIP/WX OVERNIGHT...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN OK AND WRN
N TX THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THROUGH
THE EVENING... WITH MOST STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THROUGH 23Z... THE DRYLINE WAS VISIBLE ON
KFDR REACHING AS FAR AS WRN WILBARGER AND BAYLOR COUNTIES... AND
HAS STARTED TO SHOW SIGNS OF SLOWLY RETREATING WESTWARD. VIS SAT
SHOWS SOME CONTINUAL CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT
RETREATS. GIVEN SUPPORT ALOFT FROM THE STOUT UPPER LOW... EXPECT
STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS TEXOMA. EXPECT INSTABILITY TO
SLOWLY START A DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS THE REGION... WITH CURRENT
CONVECTION SLOWLY FILLING IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK THROUGH 7 TO 8 PM
CDT. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF A FAIRLY LONG
LINE FROM THE RED RIVER TO THE OK/KS BORDER DEVELOPING THROUGH 8PM
AND MOVING EASTWARD AS A COMPLEX ACROSS CENTRAL OK OVERNIGHT. THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN THROUGH SUNSET... WITH
THE BEST CHANCE REMAINING IN NW OK... WHERE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LINGER RESULTING IN INCREASED LL SHEAR. WITH THAT
SAID... STORMS IN THE NORTH HAVE TRIED THEIR BEST... WITH REPORTS
OF FUNNELS BUT NO TORNADOES. THROUGH SUNSET... HAIL AND WIND WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO A LINE AND GET SOME
SUPPORT FROM A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE LLJ.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GETTING BUSY... SO THIS WILL BE SHORT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW CONT TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SHIFT EAST TOMORROW.
AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
UNDER THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY. WITH COLD
TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW... COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS.

WILL THEN SEE A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS BEFORE ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD
BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LINGERING REALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. NO REAL STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE... BUT IT IS
GETTING TO BE LATE APRIL... SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  72  44  66 /  70  30   0   0
HOBART OK         53  71  42  67 /  30  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  75  45  70 /  40  10   0   0
GAGE OK           48  65  38  65 /  50  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     56  71  42  65 /  70  60  10   0
DURANT OK         57  77  49  70 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 182327
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
627 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO PRECIP/WX OVERNIGHT...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN OK AND WRN
N TX THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THROUGH
THE EVENING... WITH MOST STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THROUGH 23Z... THE DRYLINE WAS VISIBLE ON
KFDR REACHING AS FAR AS WRN WILBARGER AND BAYLOR COUNTIES... AND
HAS STARTED TO SHOW SIGNS OF SLOWLY RETREATING WESTWARD. VIS SAT
SHOWS SOME CONTINUAL CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT
RETREATS. GIVEN SUPPORT ALOFT FROM THE STOUT UPPER LOW... EXPECT
STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS TEXOMA. EXPECT INSTABILITY TO
SLOWLY START A DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS THE REGION... WITH CURRENT
CONVECTION SLOWLY FILLING IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK THROUGH 7 TO 8 PM
CDT. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF A FAIRLY LONG
LINE FROM THE RED RIVER TO THE OK/KS BORDER DEVELOPING THROUGH 8PM
AND MOVING EASTWARD AS A COMPLEX ACROSS CENTRAL OK OVERNIGHT. THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN THROUGH SUNSET... WITH
THE BEST CHANCE REMAINING IN NW OK... WHERE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LINGER RESULTING IN INCREASED LL SHEAR. WITH THAT
SAID... STORMS IN THE NORTH HAVE TRIED THEIR BEST... WITH REPORTS
OF FUNNELS BUT NO TORNADOES. THROUGH SUNSET... HAIL AND WIND WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO A LINE AND GET SOME
SUPPORT FROM A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE LLJ.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GETTING BUSY... SO THIS WILL BE SHORT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW CONT TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SHIFT EAST TOMORROW.
AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
UNDER THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY. WITH COLD
TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW... COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS.

WILL THEN SEE A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS BEFORE ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD
BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LINGERING REALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. NO REAL STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE... BUT IT IS
GETTING TO BE LATE APRIL... SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  72  44  66 /  70  30   0   0
HOBART OK         53  71  42  67 /  30  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  75  45  70 /  40  10   0   0
GAGE OK           48  65  38  65 /  50  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     56  71  42  65 /  70  60  10   0
DURANT OK         57  77  49  70 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 182327
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
627 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO PRECIP/WX OVERNIGHT...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN OK AND WRN
N TX THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THROUGH
THE EVENING... WITH MOST STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THROUGH 23Z... THE DRYLINE WAS VISIBLE ON
KFDR REACHING AS FAR AS WRN WILBARGER AND BAYLOR COUNTIES... AND
HAS STARTED TO SHOW SIGNS OF SLOWLY RETREATING WESTWARD. VIS SAT
SHOWS SOME CONTINUAL CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT
RETREATS. GIVEN SUPPORT ALOFT FROM THE STOUT UPPER LOW... EXPECT
STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS TEXOMA. EXPECT INSTABILITY TO
SLOWLY START A DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS THE REGION... WITH CURRENT
CONVECTION SLOWLY FILLING IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK THROUGH 7 TO 8 PM
CDT. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF A FAIRLY LONG
LINE FROM THE RED RIVER TO THE OK/KS BORDER DEVELOPING THROUGH 8PM
AND MOVING EASTWARD AS A COMPLEX ACROSS CENTRAL OK OVERNIGHT. THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN THROUGH SUNSET... WITH
THE BEST CHANCE REMAINING IN NW OK... WHERE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LINGER RESULTING IN INCREASED LL SHEAR. WITH THAT
SAID... STORMS IN THE NORTH HAVE TRIED THEIR BEST... WITH REPORTS
OF FUNNELS BUT NO TORNADOES. THROUGH SUNSET... HAIL AND WIND WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO A LINE AND GET SOME
SUPPORT FROM A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE LLJ.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GETTING BUSY... SO THIS WILL BE SHORT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW CONT TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SHIFT EAST TOMORROW.
AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
UNDER THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY. WITH COLD
TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW... COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS.

WILL THEN SEE A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS BEFORE ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD
BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LINGERING REALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. NO REAL STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE... BUT IT IS
GETTING TO BE LATE APRIL... SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  72  44  66 /  70  30   0   0
HOBART OK         53  71  42  67 /  30  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  75  45  70 /  40  10   0   0
GAGE OK           48  65  38  65 /  50  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     56  71  42  65 /  70  60  10   0
DURANT OK         57  77  49  70 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 182327
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
627 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. WENT
WITH A TEMPO FOR THUNDER AT THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA TAF SITES
AT 04Z. THIS IS IN LINE WITH WHAT THE LATEST HRRR IS PROJECTING.
FOG WILL BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT AT THE NORTHWEST ARKSANS
SITES...COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS BEFORE IMPROVING MID-MORNING
SUNDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO RESIDE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW A DRYLINE HAS SET UP OVER FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN TEXAS. SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO INITIATE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
ALONG AND NEAR THIS DRYLINE...MOVING TO THE NORTH. TO THE EAST
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THE PRECIP FROM
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED OUT OF THE CWA WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OUT WEST IS
EXPECTED TO FINALLY PUSH OUT INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND BECOME MORE
OF AN OPEN WAVE COMPARED TO THE CLOSED OFF LOW THAT IT HAS BEEN.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD MAKE
ITS WAY TOWARD AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT. THE GREATER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED CLOSER TO THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH SHOULD AID IN CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH SHEAR AND COLD
TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEGIN THE MAIN THREATS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS
HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50/LOW 60S SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPS SUNDAY
MORNING CLOSE TO THIS MORNING LOWS.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA
WITH A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE CAP
LOOKS TO BE WEAK. AN ELEVATED SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING
EASTWARD WHERE THE WARMER TEMPS AND BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
LOCATED. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AGAIN LOOK TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH ANY CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE CWA
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO A SECOND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL AID IN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BY MONDAY MORNING AND COOL HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA WILL HELP TO DELAY THE NEXT PRECIP CHANCES
INTO TUESDAY AS A PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO
THE CWA THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA.
INCREASING MOISTURE...AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF 100-130KT
PARALLEL TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY
OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME LOOK TO BE
COOLER ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT AND WARMER TO THE SOUTH.
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPS COULD BE COOLER THAN WHAT HAS
BEEN FORECAST WHICH COULD LIMITED THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST DATA AS THIS SYSTEM SETS UP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 182105
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
405 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO RESIDE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW A DRYLINE HAS SET UP OVER FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN TEXAS. SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO INITIATE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
ALONG AND NEAR THIS DRYLINE...MOVING TO THE NORTH. TO THE EAST
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THE PRECIP FROM
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED OUT OF THE CWA WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OUT WEST IS
EXPECTED TO FINALLY PUSH OUT INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND BECOME MORE
OF AN OPEN WAVE COMPARED TO THE CLOSED OFF LOW THAT IT HAS BEEN.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD MAKE
ITS WAY TOWARD AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT. THE GREATER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED CLOSER TO THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH SHOULD AID IN CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH SHEAR AND COLD
TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEGIN THE MAIN THREATS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS
HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50/LOW 60S SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPS SUNDAY
MORNING CLOSE TO THIS MORNING LOWS.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA
WITH A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE CAP
LOOKS TO BE WEAK. AN ELEVATED SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING
EASTWARD WHERE THE WARMER TEMPS AND BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
LOCATED. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AGAIN LOOK TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH ANY CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE CWA
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO A SECOND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL AID IN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BY MONDAY MORNING AND COOL HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA WILL HELP TO DELAY THE NEXT PRECIP CHANCES
INTO TUESDAY AS A PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO
THE CWA THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA.
INCREASING MOISTURE...AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF 100-130KT
PARALLEL TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY
OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME LOOK TO BE
COOLER ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT AND WARMER TO THE SOUTH.
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPS COULD BE COOLER THAN WHAT HAS
BEEN FORECAST WHICH COULD LIMITED THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST DATA AS THIS SYSTEM SETS UP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  72  46  67 /  50  50  10   0
FSM   59  76  49  69 /  30  70  30  10
MLC   58  75  48  69 /  50  40  10   0
BVO   55  70  44  66 /  60  70  10  10
FYV   53  69  45  63 /  30  70  50  10
BYV   55  70  46  64 /  30  70  50  10
MKO   56  72  46  67 /  40  50  10  10
MIO   55  69  46  64 /  50  70  30  10
F10   57  72  46  67 /  50  40  10   0
HHW   58  78  49  69 /  50  30  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 182105
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
405 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO RESIDE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW A DRYLINE HAS SET UP OVER FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN TEXAS. SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO INITIATE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
ALONG AND NEAR THIS DRYLINE...MOVING TO THE NORTH. TO THE EAST
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THE PRECIP FROM
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED OUT OF THE CWA WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OUT WEST IS
EXPECTED TO FINALLY PUSH OUT INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND BECOME MORE
OF AN OPEN WAVE COMPARED TO THE CLOSED OFF LOW THAT IT HAS BEEN.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD MAKE
ITS WAY TOWARD AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT. THE GREATER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED CLOSER TO THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH SHOULD AID IN CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH SHEAR AND COLD
TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEGIN THE MAIN THREATS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS
HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50/LOW 60S SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPS SUNDAY
MORNING CLOSE TO THIS MORNING LOWS.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA
WITH A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE CAP
LOOKS TO BE WEAK. AN ELEVATED SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING
EASTWARD WHERE THE WARMER TEMPS AND BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
LOCATED. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AGAIN LOOK TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH ANY CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE CWA
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO A SECOND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL AID IN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BY MONDAY MORNING AND COOL HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA WILL HELP TO DELAY THE NEXT PRECIP CHANCES
INTO TUESDAY AS A PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO
THE CWA THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA.
INCREASING MOISTURE...AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF 100-130KT
PARALLEL TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY
OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME LOOK TO BE
COOLER ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT AND WARMER TO THE SOUTH.
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPS COULD BE COOLER THAN WHAT HAS
BEEN FORECAST WHICH COULD LIMITED THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST DATA AS THIS SYSTEM SETS UP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  72  46  67 /  50  50  10   0
FSM   59  76  49  69 /  30  70  30  10
MLC   58  75  48  69 /  50  40  10   0
BVO   55  70  44  66 /  60  70  10  10
FYV   53  69  45  63 /  30  70  50  10
BYV   55  70  46  64 /  30  70  50  10
MKO   56  72  46  67 /  40  50  10  10
MIO   55  69  46  64 /  50  70  30  10
F10   57  72  46  67 /  50  40  10   0
HHW   58  78  49  69 /  50  30  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....20





000
FXUS64 KOUN 181931
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
231 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GETTING BUSY... SO THIS WILL BE SHORT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW CONT TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SHIFT EAST TOMORROW.
AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
UNDER THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY. WITH COLD
TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW... COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS.

WILL THEN SEE A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS BEFORE ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD
BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LINGERING REALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. NO REAL STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE... BUT IT IS
GETTING TO BE LATE APRIL... SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  72  44  66 /  60  30   0   0
HOBART OK         50  71  42  67 /  30  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  75  45  70 /  30  10   0   0
GAGE OK           47  65  38  65 /  40  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     54  71  42  65 /  60  60  10   0
DURANT OK         58  77  49  70 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 181931
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
231 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GETTING BUSY... SO THIS WILL BE SHORT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW CONT TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SHIFT EAST TOMORROW.
AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
UNDER THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY. WITH COLD
TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW... COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS.

WILL THEN SEE A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS BEFORE ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD
BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LINGERING REALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. NO REAL STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE... BUT IT IS
GETTING TO BE LATE APRIL... SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  72  44  66 /  60  30   0   0
HOBART OK         50  71  42  67 /  30  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  75  45  70 /  30  10   0   0
GAGE OK           47  65  38  65 /  40  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     54  71  42  65 /  60  60  10   0
DURANT OK         58  77  49  70 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 181931
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
231 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GETTING BUSY... SO THIS WILL BE SHORT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW CONT TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SHIFT EAST TOMORROW.
AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
UNDER THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY. WITH COLD
TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW... COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS.

WILL THEN SEE A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS BEFORE ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD
BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LINGERING REALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. NO REAL STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE... BUT IT IS
GETTING TO BE LATE APRIL... SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  72  44  66 /  60  30   0   0
HOBART OK         50  71  42  67 /  30  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  75  45  70 /  30  10   0   0
GAGE OK           47  65  38  65 /  40  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     54  71  42  65 /  60  60  10   0
DURANT OK         58  77  49  70 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 181744
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1244 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS A POSSIBILITY FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE ALL
SITES GO VFR. LOW TSRA CHANCES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY BETTER CHANCES
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFT 03Z WHEN STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. CIGS
SHOULD TREND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MVFR RANGE...THEN REBOUND
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BACK TO VFR.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MORNING ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS...MAINLY ON EASTERN FRINGE...WILL
GRADUALLY END BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST DATA
INDICATES NEW DEVELOPMENT OUT IN WESTERN OK NEAR THE DRYLINE AND
THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
SO IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A BREAK FROM THE MORNING STORMS AND
THE NIGHTTIME ACTIVITY...ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR VSBYS...ALONG WITH VFR/ MVFR CIGS IN THUNDER WILL PREVAIL
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE ERN OK TAF SITES...AND WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE NW AR SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
.BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF RA/TSRA BEGINS TO IMPACT THE ERN OK
SITES WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS EVENING...AND NW AR SITES
OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...HOWEVER
MODEST INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL/HEAVY RAINFALL. A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT
IS EXPECTED...PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEST OF HIGHWAY
75...AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED
TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES THIS MORNING AND WITH A PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME EXPECTED...A FEW AREAS COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH ANY
TRAINING STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND
MID DAY...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COOL/BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCE DIVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES. STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  70  45  67 /  60  50  10  10
FSM   57  75  49  70 /  50  50  20  10
MLC   57  75  48  70 /  60  40  10   0
BVO   55  70  45  67 /  60  60  10  10
FYV   53  69  44  63 /  50  60  40  10
BYV   55  68  46  63 /  50  60  40  10
MKO   56  72  45  67 /  60  50  10  10
MIO   54  69  45  64 /  50  60  30  10
F10   58  71  47  68 /  60  40  10  10
HHW   57  77  48  69 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 181744
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1244 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS A POSSIBILITY FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE ALL
SITES GO VFR. LOW TSRA CHANCES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY BETTER CHANCES
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFT 03Z WHEN STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. CIGS
SHOULD TREND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MVFR RANGE...THEN REBOUND
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BACK TO VFR.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MORNING ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS...MAINLY ON EASTERN FRINGE...WILL
GRADUALLY END BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST DATA
INDICATES NEW DEVELOPMENT OUT IN WESTERN OK NEAR THE DRYLINE AND
THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
SO IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A BREAK FROM THE MORNING STORMS AND
THE NIGHTTIME ACTIVITY...ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR VSBYS...ALONG WITH VFR/ MVFR CIGS IN THUNDER WILL PREVAIL
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE ERN OK TAF SITES...AND WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE NW AR SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
.BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF RA/TSRA BEGINS TO IMPACT THE ERN OK
SITES WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS EVENING...AND NW AR SITES
OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...HOWEVER
MODEST INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL/HEAVY RAINFALL. A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT
IS EXPECTED...PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEST OF HIGHWAY
75...AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED
TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES THIS MORNING AND WITH A PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME EXPECTED...A FEW AREAS COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH ANY
TRAINING STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND
MID DAY...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COOL/BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCE DIVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES. STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  70  45  67 /  60  50  10  10
FSM   57  75  49  70 /  50  50  20  10
MLC   57  75  48  70 /  60  40  10   0
BVO   55  70  45  67 /  60  60  10  10
FYV   53  69  44  63 /  50  60  40  10
BYV   55  68  46  63 /  50  60  40  10
MKO   56  72  45  67 /  60  50  10  10
MIO   54  69  45  64 /  50  60  30  10
F10   58  71  47  68 /  60  40  10  10
HHW   57  77  48  69 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KOUN 181651
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK6
1150 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE AFTN WITH A ROUND OF
TSTMS TO AFFECT MOST TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30KTS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST OK.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OF VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH 21Z AS WELL AS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TSRA TIMING/COVERAGE
AFTER 19Z.

CONDITIONS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR WITH BR/FG ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 21Z. THE WORST CONDITIONS MAY BE NEAR
KCSM AND KHBR THROUGH 15Z. IFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT KSPS AND KLAW
AS WELL THROUGH 15Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION THINKING THESE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL STAY WEST OF THESE SITES.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 21Z.

ISO-NUM TSRA WILL FORM AND AFFECT MANY TAF SITES AFTER 19Z. USED
VCTS/TEMPOS AT MOST SITES EXCEPT KCSM AND KHBR WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. BRIEF VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS...
HAIL...AND MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. MOST STORMS WILL BE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES BY
04Z.

ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE
MAIN CONCERN.

RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING LOOK TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
EAST OF I-35 WHERE MOST LATEST RADAR ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM A
WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND A MID/UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN
COLORADO. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...JUST
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY END BY 8 AM
IF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE CORRECT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY THIS MORNING.

ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH 11 AM THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LATEST HRRR RUNS
FAVOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. DOUBT IT WILL GET TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. CAPPING WILL BE RATHER
WEAK. WITH MORE SUN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THINK CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED RATHER EASILY IN THE 2 TO 5 PM TIME
FRAME. FIRST DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FOCUSED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR A DEVELOPING DRYLINE. WENT NEAR GUIDANCE
RAIN CHANCES. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN STORMS OCCUR REMAINS TRICKY
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE
MAIN CONCERN. THE AIR WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-50 KT SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS
AND MULTICELLS. STRONG 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES 25-45 KT AND VERY COLD
MID LEVELS WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -18C COULD SUPPORT VERY
LARGE HAIL IN SOME CELLS AS LONG AS CONVECTION IS NOT TOO
WIDESPREAD. SOME DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR AS WELL IF STORMS CAN
ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THOUGH NOTICED THE LATEST
RAP13 INDICATED STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE 5 TO 9 PM TIME FRAME WHICH MAY
INCREASE THIS POTENTIAL. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AGAIN OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THOUGH STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ONE GIVEN LOCATION.

MOST STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MOIST AND COOL CONDITIONS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME FOG FORMED...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ON SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...THOUGH APPEARS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT
IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS EAST. WITH LINGERING WEAK
INSTABILITY AND COLD MID/UPPER LEVELS...A FEW STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL COULD OCCUR. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THINKING SOME SUN WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WET PATTERN MAY CONTINUE WITH
RAIN CHANCES REMAINING IN THE FORECAST MOST DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH WEATHER FEATURES...THUS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEARBY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

MBS

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 181651
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK6
1150 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE AFTN WITH A ROUND OF
TSTMS TO AFFECT MOST TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30KTS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST OK.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OF VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH 21Z AS WELL AS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TSRA TIMING/COVERAGE
AFTER 19Z.

CONDITIONS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR WITH BR/FG ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 21Z. THE WORST CONDITIONS MAY BE NEAR
KCSM AND KHBR THROUGH 15Z. IFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT KSPS AND KLAW
AS WELL THROUGH 15Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION THINKING THESE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL STAY WEST OF THESE SITES.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 21Z.

ISO-NUM TSRA WILL FORM AND AFFECT MANY TAF SITES AFTER 19Z. USED
VCTS/TEMPOS AT MOST SITES EXCEPT KCSM AND KHBR WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. BRIEF VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS...
HAIL...AND MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. MOST STORMS WILL BE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES BY
04Z.

ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE
MAIN CONCERN.

RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING LOOK TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
EAST OF I-35 WHERE MOST LATEST RADAR ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM A
WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND A MID/UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN
COLORADO. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...JUST
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY END BY 8 AM
IF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE CORRECT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY THIS MORNING.

ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH 11 AM THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LATEST HRRR RUNS
FAVOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. DOUBT IT WILL GET TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. CAPPING WILL BE RATHER
WEAK. WITH MORE SUN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THINK CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED RATHER EASILY IN THE 2 TO 5 PM TIME
FRAME. FIRST DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FOCUSED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR A DEVELOPING DRYLINE. WENT NEAR GUIDANCE
RAIN CHANCES. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN STORMS OCCUR REMAINS TRICKY
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE
MAIN CONCERN. THE AIR WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-50 KT SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS
AND MULTICELLS. STRONG 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES 25-45 KT AND VERY COLD
MID LEVELS WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -18C COULD SUPPORT VERY
LARGE HAIL IN SOME CELLS AS LONG AS CONVECTION IS NOT TOO
WIDESPREAD. SOME DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR AS WELL IF STORMS CAN
ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THOUGH NOTICED THE LATEST
RAP13 INDICATED STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE 5 TO 9 PM TIME FRAME WHICH MAY
INCREASE THIS POTENTIAL. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AGAIN OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THOUGH STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ONE GIVEN LOCATION.

MOST STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MOIST AND COOL CONDITIONS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME FOG FORMED...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ON SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...THOUGH APPEARS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT
IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS EAST. WITH LINGERING WEAK
INSTABILITY AND COLD MID/UPPER LEVELS...A FEW STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL COULD OCCUR. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THINKING SOME SUN WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WET PATTERN MAY CONTINUE WITH
RAIN CHANCES REMAINING IN THE FORECAST MOST DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH WEATHER FEATURES...THUS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEARBY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

MBS

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 181437
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
937 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MORNING ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS...MAINLY ON EASTERN FRINGE...WILL
GRADUALLY END BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST DATA
INDICATES NEW DEVELOPMENT OUT IN WESTERN OK NEAR THE DRYLINE AND
THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
SO IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A BREAK FROM THE MORNING STORMS AND
THE NIGHTTIME ACTIVITY...ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR VSBYS...ALONG WITH VFR/ MVFR CIGS IN THUNDER WILL PREVAIL
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE ERN OK TAF SITES...AND WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE NW AR SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
..BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF RA/TSRA BEGINS TO IMPACT THE ERN OK
SITES WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS EVENING...AND NW AR SITES
OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...HOWEVER
MODEST INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL/HEAVY RAINFALL. A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT
IS EXPECTED...PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEST OF HIGHWAY
75...AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED
TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES THIS MORNING AND WITH A PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME EXPECTED...A FEW AREAS COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH ANY
TRAINING STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND
MID DAY...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COOL/BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCE DIVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES. STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  56  70  45 /  70  60  50  10
FSM   75  57  75  49 /  90  60  50  20
MLC   75  57  75  48 /  30  60  40  10
BVO   73  55  70  45 /  60  60  60  10
FYV   72  53  69  44 /  80  60  60  40
BYV   71  55  68  46 /  80  60  60  40
MKO   73  56  72  45 /  70  60  50  10
MIO   73  54  69  45 /  90  60  60  30
F10   74  58  71  47 /  40  60  40  10
HHW   77  57  77  48 /  30  60  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 181437
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
937 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MORNING ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS...MAINLY ON EASTERN FRINGE...WILL
GRADUALLY END BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST DATA
INDICATES NEW DEVELOPMENT OUT IN WESTERN OK NEAR THE DRYLINE AND
THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
SO IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A BREAK FROM THE MORNING STORMS AND
THE NIGHTTIME ACTIVITY...ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR VSBYS...ALONG WITH VFR/ MVFR CIGS IN THUNDER WILL PREVAIL
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE ERN OK TAF SITES...AND WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE NW AR SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
..BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF RA/TSRA BEGINS TO IMPACT THE ERN OK
SITES WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS EVENING...AND NW AR SITES
OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...HOWEVER
MODEST INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL/HEAVY RAINFALL. A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT
IS EXPECTED...PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEST OF HIGHWAY
75...AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED
TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES THIS MORNING AND WITH A PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME EXPECTED...A FEW AREAS COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH ANY
TRAINING STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND
MID DAY...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COOL/BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCE DIVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES. STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  56  70  45 /  70  60  50  10
FSM   75  57  75  49 /  90  60  50  20
MLC   75  57  75  48 /  30  60  40  10
BVO   73  55  70  45 /  60  60  60  10
FYV   72  53  69  44 /  80  60  60  40
BYV   71  55  68  46 /  80  60  60  40
MKO   73  56  72  45 /  70  60  50  10
MIO   73  54  69  45 /  90  60  60  30
F10   74  58  71  47 /  40  60  40  10
HHW   77  57  77  48 /  30  60  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 181437
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
937 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MORNING ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS...MAINLY ON EASTERN FRINGE...WILL
GRADUALLY END BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST DATA
INDICATES NEW DEVELOPMENT OUT IN WESTERN OK NEAR THE DRYLINE AND
THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
SO IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A BREAK FROM THE MORNING STORMS AND
THE NIGHTTIME ACTIVITY...ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR VSBYS...ALONG WITH VFR/ MVFR CIGS IN THUNDER WILL PREVAIL
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE ERN OK TAF SITES...AND WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE NW AR SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
..BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF RA/TSRA BEGINS TO IMPACT THE ERN OK
SITES WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS EVENING...AND NW AR SITES
OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...HOWEVER
MODEST INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL/HEAVY RAINFALL. A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT
IS EXPECTED...PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEST OF HIGHWAY
75...AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED
TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES THIS MORNING AND WITH A PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME EXPECTED...A FEW AREAS COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH ANY
TRAINING STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND
MID DAY...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COOL/BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCE DIVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES. STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  56  70  45 /  70  60  50  10
FSM   75  57  75  49 /  90  60  50  20
MLC   75  57  75  48 /  30  60  40  10
BVO   73  55  70  45 /  60  60  60  10
FYV   72  53  69  44 /  80  60  60  40
BYV   71  55  68  46 /  80  60  60  40
MKO   73  56  72  45 /  70  60  50  10
MIO   73  54  69  45 /  90  60  60  30
F10   74  58  71  47 /  40  60  40  10
HHW   77  57  77  48 /  30  60  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 181437
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
937 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MORNING ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS...MAINLY ON EASTERN FRINGE...WILL
GRADUALLY END BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST DATA
INDICATES NEW DEVELOPMENT OUT IN WESTERN OK NEAR THE DRYLINE AND
THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
SO IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A BREAK FROM THE MORNING STORMS AND
THE NIGHTTIME ACTIVITY...ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR VSBYS...ALONG WITH VFR/ MVFR CIGS IN THUNDER WILL PREVAIL
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE ERN OK TAF SITES...AND WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE NW AR SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
..BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF RA/TSRA BEGINS TO IMPACT THE ERN OK
SITES WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS EVENING...AND NW AR SITES
OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...HOWEVER
MODEST INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL/HEAVY RAINFALL. A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT
IS EXPECTED...PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEST OF HIGHWAY
75...AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED
TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES THIS MORNING AND WITH A PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME EXPECTED...A FEW AREAS COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH ANY
TRAINING STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND
MID DAY...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COOL/BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCE DIVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES. STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  56  70  45 /  70  60  50  10
FSM   75  57  75  49 /  90  60  50  20
MLC   75  57  75  48 /  30  60  40  10
BVO   73  55  70  45 /  60  60  60  10
FYV   72  53  69  44 /  80  60  60  40
BYV   71  55  68  46 /  80  60  60  40
MKO   73  56  72  45 /  70  60  50  10
MIO   73  54  69  45 /  90  60  60  30
F10   74  58  71  47 /  40  60  40  10
HHW   77  57  77  48 /  30  60  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30





000
FXUS64 KOUN 181146
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OF VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH 21Z AS WELL AS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TSRA TIMING/COVERAGE
AFTER 19Z.

CONDITIONS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR WITH BR/FG ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 21Z. THE WORST CONDITIONS MAY BE NEAR
KCSM AND KHBR THROUGH 15Z. IFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT KSPS AND KLAW
AS WELL THROUGH 15Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION THINKING THESE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL STAY WEST OF THESE SITES.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 21Z.

ISO-NUM TSRA WILL FORM AND AFFECT MANY TAF SITES AFTER 19Z. USED
VCTS/TEMPOS AT MOST SITES EXCEPT KCSM AND KHBR WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. BRIEF VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS...
HAIL...AND MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. MOST STORMS WILL BE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES BY
04Z.

ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE
MAIN CONCERN.

RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING LOOK TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
EAST OF I-35 WHERE MOST LATEST RADAR ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM A
WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND A MID/UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN
COLORADO. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...JUST
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY END BY 8 AM
IF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE CORRECT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY THIS MORNING.

ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH 11 AM THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LATEST HRRR RUNS
FAVOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. DOUBT IT WILL GET TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. CAPPING WILL BE RATHER
WEAK. WITH MORE SUN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THINK CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED RATHER EASILY IN THE 2 TO 5 PM TIME
FRAME. FIRST DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FOCUSED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR A DEVELOPING DRYLINE. WENT NEAR GUIDANCE
RAIN CHANCES. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN STORMS OCCUR REMAINS TRICKY
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE
MAIN CONCERN. THE AIR WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-50 KT SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS
AND MULTICELLS. STRONG 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES 25-45 KT AND VERY COLD
MID LEVELS WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -18C COULD SUPPORT VERY
LARGE HAIL IN SOME CELLS AS LONG AS CONVECTION IS NOT TOO
WIDESPREAD. SOME DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR AS WELL IF STORMS CAN
ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THOUGH NOTICED THE LATEST
RAP13 INDICATED STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE 5 TO 9 PM TIME FRAME WHICH MAY
INCREASE THIS POTENTIAL. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AGAIN OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THOUGH STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ONE GIVEN LOCATION.

MOST STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MOIST AND COOL CONDITIONS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME FOG FORMED...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ON SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...THOUGH APPEARS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT
IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS EAST. WITH LINGERING WEAK
INSTABILITY AND COLD MID/UPPER LEVELS...A FEW STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL COULD OCCUR. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THINKING SOME SUN WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WET PATTERN MAY CONTINUE WITH
RAIN CHANCES REMAINING IN THE FORECAST MOST DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH WEATHER FEATURES...THUS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEARBY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

MBS

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 181146
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OF VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH 21Z AS WELL AS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TSRA TIMING/COVERAGE
AFTER 19Z.

CONDITIONS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR WITH BR/FG ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 21Z. THE WORST CONDITIONS MAY BE NEAR
KCSM AND KHBR THROUGH 15Z. IFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT KSPS AND KLAW
AS WELL THROUGH 15Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION THINKING THESE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL STAY WEST OF THESE SITES.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 21Z.

ISO-NUM TSRA WILL FORM AND AFFECT MANY TAF SITES AFTER 19Z. USED
VCTS/TEMPOS AT MOST SITES EXCEPT KCSM AND KHBR WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. BRIEF VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS...
HAIL...AND MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. MOST STORMS WILL BE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES BY
04Z.

ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE
MAIN CONCERN.

RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING LOOK TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
EAST OF I-35 WHERE MOST LATEST RADAR ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM A
WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND A MID/UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN
COLORADO. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...JUST
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY END BY 8 AM
IF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE CORRECT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY THIS MORNING.

ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH 11 AM THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LATEST HRRR RUNS
FAVOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. DOUBT IT WILL GET TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. CAPPING WILL BE RATHER
WEAK. WITH MORE SUN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THINK CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED RATHER EASILY IN THE 2 TO 5 PM TIME
FRAME. FIRST DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FOCUSED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR A DEVELOPING DRYLINE. WENT NEAR GUIDANCE
RAIN CHANCES. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN STORMS OCCUR REMAINS TRICKY
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE
MAIN CONCERN. THE AIR WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-50 KT SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS
AND MULTICELLS. STRONG 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES 25-45 KT AND VERY COLD
MID LEVELS WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -18C COULD SUPPORT VERY
LARGE HAIL IN SOME CELLS AS LONG AS CONVECTION IS NOT TOO
WIDESPREAD. SOME DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR AS WELL IF STORMS CAN
ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THOUGH NOTICED THE LATEST
RAP13 INDICATED STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE 5 TO 9 PM TIME FRAME WHICH MAY
INCREASE THIS POTENTIAL. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AGAIN OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THOUGH STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ONE GIVEN LOCATION.

MOST STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MOIST AND COOL CONDITIONS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME FOG FORMED...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ON SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...THOUGH APPEARS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT
IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS EAST. WITH LINGERING WEAK
INSTABILITY AND COLD MID/UPPER LEVELS...A FEW STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL COULD OCCUR. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THINKING SOME SUN WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WET PATTERN MAY CONTINUE WITH
RAIN CHANCES REMAINING IN THE FORECAST MOST DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH WEATHER FEATURES...THUS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEARBY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

MBS

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 181146
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OF VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH 21Z AS WELL AS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TSRA TIMING/COVERAGE
AFTER 19Z.

CONDITIONS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR WITH BR/FG ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 21Z. THE WORST CONDITIONS MAY BE NEAR
KCSM AND KHBR THROUGH 15Z. IFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT KSPS AND KLAW
AS WELL THROUGH 15Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION THINKING THESE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL STAY WEST OF THESE SITES.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 21Z.

ISO-NUM TSRA WILL FORM AND AFFECT MANY TAF SITES AFTER 19Z. USED
VCTS/TEMPOS AT MOST SITES EXCEPT KCSM AND KHBR WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. BRIEF VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS...
HAIL...AND MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. MOST STORMS WILL BE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES BY
04Z.

ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE
MAIN CONCERN.

RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING LOOK TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
EAST OF I-35 WHERE MOST LATEST RADAR ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM A
WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND A MID/UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN
COLORADO. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...JUST
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY END BY 8 AM
IF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE CORRECT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY THIS MORNING.

ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH 11 AM THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LATEST HRRR RUNS
FAVOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. DOUBT IT WILL GET TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. CAPPING WILL BE RATHER
WEAK. WITH MORE SUN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THINK CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED RATHER EASILY IN THE 2 TO 5 PM TIME
FRAME. FIRST DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FOCUSED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR A DEVELOPING DRYLINE. WENT NEAR GUIDANCE
RAIN CHANCES. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN STORMS OCCUR REMAINS TRICKY
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE
MAIN CONCERN. THE AIR WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-50 KT SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS
AND MULTICELLS. STRONG 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES 25-45 KT AND VERY COLD
MID LEVELS WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -18C COULD SUPPORT VERY
LARGE HAIL IN SOME CELLS AS LONG AS CONVECTION IS NOT TOO
WIDESPREAD. SOME DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR AS WELL IF STORMS CAN
ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THOUGH NOTICED THE LATEST
RAP13 INDICATED STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE 5 TO 9 PM TIME FRAME WHICH MAY
INCREASE THIS POTENTIAL. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AGAIN OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THOUGH STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ONE GIVEN LOCATION.

MOST STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MOIST AND COOL CONDITIONS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME FOG FORMED...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ON SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...THOUGH APPEARS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT
IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS EAST. WITH LINGERING WEAK
INSTABILITY AND COLD MID/UPPER LEVELS...A FEW STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL COULD OCCUR. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THINKING SOME SUN WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WET PATTERN MAY CONTINUE WITH
RAIN CHANCES REMAINING IN THE FORECAST MOST DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH WEATHER FEATURES...THUS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEARBY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

MBS

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 181146
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OF VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH 21Z AS WELL AS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TSRA TIMING/COVERAGE
AFTER 19Z.

CONDITIONS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR WITH BR/FG ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 21Z. THE WORST CONDITIONS MAY BE NEAR
KCSM AND KHBR THROUGH 15Z. IFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT KSPS AND KLAW
AS WELL THROUGH 15Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION THINKING THESE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL STAY WEST OF THESE SITES.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 21Z.

ISO-NUM TSRA WILL FORM AND AFFECT MANY TAF SITES AFTER 19Z. USED
VCTS/TEMPOS AT MOST SITES EXCEPT KCSM AND KHBR WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. BRIEF VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS...
HAIL...AND MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. MOST STORMS WILL BE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES BY
04Z.

ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE
MAIN CONCERN.

RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING LOOK TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
EAST OF I-35 WHERE MOST LATEST RADAR ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM A
WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND A MID/UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN
COLORADO. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...JUST
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY END BY 8 AM
IF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE CORRECT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY THIS MORNING.

ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH 11 AM THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LATEST HRRR RUNS
FAVOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. DOUBT IT WILL GET TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. CAPPING WILL BE RATHER
WEAK. WITH MORE SUN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THINK CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED RATHER EASILY IN THE 2 TO 5 PM TIME
FRAME. FIRST DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FOCUSED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR A DEVELOPING DRYLINE. WENT NEAR GUIDANCE
RAIN CHANCES. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN STORMS OCCUR REMAINS TRICKY
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE
MAIN CONCERN. THE AIR WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-50 KT SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS
AND MULTICELLS. STRONG 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES 25-45 KT AND VERY COLD
MID LEVELS WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -18C COULD SUPPORT VERY
LARGE HAIL IN SOME CELLS AS LONG AS CONVECTION IS NOT TOO
WIDESPREAD. SOME DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR AS WELL IF STORMS CAN
ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THOUGH NOTICED THE LATEST
RAP13 INDICATED STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE 5 TO 9 PM TIME FRAME WHICH MAY
INCREASE THIS POTENTIAL. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AGAIN OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THOUGH STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ONE GIVEN LOCATION.

MOST STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MOIST AND COOL CONDITIONS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME FOG FORMED...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ON SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...THOUGH APPEARS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT
IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS EAST. WITH LINGERING WEAK
INSTABILITY AND COLD MID/UPPER LEVELS...A FEW STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL COULD OCCUR. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THINKING SOME SUN WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WET PATTERN MAY CONTINUE WITH
RAIN CHANCES REMAINING IN THE FORECAST MOST DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH WEATHER FEATURES...THUS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEARBY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

MBS

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 181146
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OF VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH 21Z AS WELL AS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TSRA TIMING/COVERAGE
AFTER 19Z.

CONDITIONS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR WITH BR/FG ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 21Z. THE WORST CONDITIONS MAY BE NEAR
KCSM AND KHBR THROUGH 15Z. IFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT KSPS AND KLAW
AS WELL THROUGH 15Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION THINKING THESE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL STAY WEST OF THESE SITES.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 21Z.

ISO-NUM TSRA WILL FORM AND AFFECT MANY TAF SITES AFTER 19Z. USED
VCTS/TEMPOS AT MOST SITES EXCEPT KCSM AND KHBR WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. BRIEF VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS...
HAIL...AND MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. MOST STORMS WILL BE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES BY
04Z.

ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE
MAIN CONCERN.

RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING LOOK TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
EAST OF I-35 WHERE MOST LATEST RADAR ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM A
WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND A MID/UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN
COLORADO. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...JUST
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY END BY 8 AM
IF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE CORRECT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY THIS MORNING.

ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH 11 AM THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LATEST HRRR RUNS
FAVOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. DOUBT IT WILL GET TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. CAPPING WILL BE RATHER
WEAK. WITH MORE SUN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THINK CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED RATHER EASILY IN THE 2 TO 5 PM TIME
FRAME. FIRST DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FOCUSED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR A DEVELOPING DRYLINE. WENT NEAR GUIDANCE
RAIN CHANCES. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN STORMS OCCUR REMAINS TRICKY
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE
MAIN CONCERN. THE AIR WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-50 KT SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS
AND MULTICELLS. STRONG 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES 25-45 KT AND VERY COLD
MID LEVELS WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -18C COULD SUPPORT VERY
LARGE HAIL IN SOME CELLS AS LONG AS CONVECTION IS NOT TOO
WIDESPREAD. SOME DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR AS WELL IF STORMS CAN
ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THOUGH NOTICED THE LATEST
RAP13 INDICATED STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE 5 TO 9 PM TIME FRAME WHICH MAY
INCREASE THIS POTENTIAL. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AGAIN OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THOUGH STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ONE GIVEN LOCATION.

MOST STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MOIST AND COOL CONDITIONS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME FOG FORMED...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ON SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...THOUGH APPEARS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT
IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS EAST. WITH LINGERING WEAK
INSTABILITY AND COLD MID/UPPER LEVELS...A FEW STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL COULD OCCUR. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THINKING SOME SUN WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WET PATTERN MAY CONTINUE WITH
RAIN CHANCES REMAINING IN THE FORECAST MOST DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH WEATHER FEATURES...THUS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEARBY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

MBS

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 181122
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
622 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR VSBYS...ALONG WITH VFR/ MVFR CIGS IN THUNDER WILL PREVAIL
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE ERN OK TAF SITES...AND WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE NW AR SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
...BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF RA/TSRA BEGINS TO IMPACT THE ERN OK
SITES WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS EVENING...AND NW AR SITES
OVERNIGHT.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...HOWEVER
MODEST INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL/HEAVY RAINFALL. A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT
IS EXPECTED...PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEST OF HIGHWAY
75...AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED
TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES THIS MORNING AND WITH A PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME EXPECTED...A FEW AREAS COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH ANY
TRAINING STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND
MID DAY...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COOL/BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCE DIVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES. STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 181122
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
622 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR VSBYS...ALONG WITH VFR/ MVFR CIGS IN THUNDER WILL PREVAIL
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE ERN OK TAF SITES...AND WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE NW AR SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
...BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF RA/TSRA BEGINS TO IMPACT THE ERN OK
SITES WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS EVENING...AND NW AR SITES
OVERNIGHT.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...HOWEVER
MODEST INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL/HEAVY RAINFALL. A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT
IS EXPECTED...PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEST OF HIGHWAY
75...AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED
TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES THIS MORNING AND WITH A PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME EXPECTED...A FEW AREAS COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH ANY
TRAINING STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND
MID DAY...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COOL/BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCE DIVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES. STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 181122
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
622 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR VSBYS...ALONG WITH VFR/ MVFR CIGS IN THUNDER WILL PREVAIL
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE ERN OK TAF SITES...AND WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE NW AR SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
...BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF RA/TSRA BEGINS TO IMPACT THE ERN OK
SITES WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS EVENING...AND NW AR SITES
OVERNIGHT.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...HOWEVER
MODEST INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL/HEAVY RAINFALL. A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT
IS EXPECTED...PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEST OF HIGHWAY
75...AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED
TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES THIS MORNING AND WITH A PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME EXPECTED...A FEW AREAS COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH ANY
TRAINING STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND
MID DAY...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COOL/BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCE DIVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES. STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KOUN 180919
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
419 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE
MAIN CONCERN.

RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING LOOK TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
EAST OF I-35 WHERE MOST LATEST RADAR ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM A
WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND A MID/UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN
COLORADO. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...JUST
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY END BY 8 AM
IF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE CORRECT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY THIS MORNING.

ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH 11 AM THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LATEST HRRR RUNS
FAVOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. DOUBT IT WILL GET TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. CAPPING WILL BE RATHER
WEAK. WITH MORE SUN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THINK CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED RATHER EASILY IN THE 2 TO 5 PM TIME
FRAME. FIRST DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FOCUSED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR A DEVELOPING DRYLINE. WENT NEAR GUIDANCE
RAIN CHANCES. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN STORMS OCCUR REMAINS TRICKY
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE
MAIN CONCERN. THE AIR WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-50 KT SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS
AND MULTICELLS. STRONG 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES 25-45 KT AND VERY COLD
MID LEVELS WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -18C COULD SUPPORT VERY
LARGE HAIL IN SOME CELLS AS LONG AS CONVECTION IS NOT TOO
WIDESPREAD. SOME DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR AS WELL IF STORMS CAN
ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THOUGH NOTICED THE LATEST
RAP13 INDICATED STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE 5 TO 9 PM TIME FRAME WHICH MAY
INCREASE THIS POTENTIAL. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AGAIN OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THOUGH STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ONE GIVEN LOCATION.

MOST STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MOIST AND COOL CONDITIONS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME FOG FORMED...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ON SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...THOUGH APPEARS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT
IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS EAST. WITH LINGERING WEAK
INSTABILITY AND COLD MID/UPPER LEVELS...A FEW STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL COULD OCCUR. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THINKING SOME SUN WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WET PATTERN MAY CONTINUE WITH
RAIN CHANCES REMAINING IN THE FORECAST MOST DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH WEATHER FEATURES...THUS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEARBY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  77  55  72  45 /  50  70  20  10
HOBART OK         79  50  72  42 /  50  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  53  76  46 /  50  30  10   0
GAGE OK           77  47  66  38 /  40  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  54  71  41 /  50  70  60  10
DURANT OK         76  58  76  49 /  50  60  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 180919
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
419 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE
MAIN CONCERN.

RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING LOOK TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
EAST OF I-35 WHERE MOST LATEST RADAR ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM A
WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND A MID/UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN
COLORADO. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...JUST
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY END BY 8 AM
IF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE CORRECT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY THIS MORNING.

ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH 11 AM THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LATEST HRRR RUNS
FAVOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. DOUBT IT WILL GET TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. CAPPING WILL BE RATHER
WEAK. WITH MORE SUN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THINK CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED RATHER EASILY IN THE 2 TO 5 PM TIME
FRAME. FIRST DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FOCUSED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR A DEVELOPING DRYLINE. WENT NEAR GUIDANCE
RAIN CHANCES. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN STORMS OCCUR REMAINS TRICKY
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE
MAIN CONCERN. THE AIR WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-50 KT SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS
AND MULTICELLS. STRONG 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES 25-45 KT AND VERY COLD
MID LEVELS WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -18C COULD SUPPORT VERY
LARGE HAIL IN SOME CELLS AS LONG AS CONVECTION IS NOT TOO
WIDESPREAD. SOME DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR AS WELL IF STORMS CAN
ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THOUGH NOTICED THE LATEST
RAP13 INDICATED STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE 5 TO 9 PM TIME FRAME WHICH MAY
INCREASE THIS POTENTIAL. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AGAIN OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THOUGH STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ONE GIVEN LOCATION.

MOST STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MOIST AND COOL CONDITIONS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME FOG FORMED...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ON SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...THOUGH APPEARS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT
IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS EAST. WITH LINGERING WEAK
INSTABILITY AND COLD MID/UPPER LEVELS...A FEW STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL COULD OCCUR. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THINKING SOME SUN WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WET PATTERN MAY CONTINUE WITH
RAIN CHANCES REMAINING IN THE FORECAST MOST DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH WEATHER FEATURES...THUS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEARBY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  77  55  72  45 /  50  70  20  10
HOBART OK         79  50  72  42 /  50  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  53  76  46 /  50  30  10   0
GAGE OK           77  47  66  38 /  40  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  54  71  41 /  50  70  60  10
DURANT OK         76  58  76  49 /  50  60  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 180757
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...HOWEVER
MODEST INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL/HEAVY RAINFALL. A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT
IS EXPECTED...PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEST OF HIGHWAY
75...AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED
TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES THIS MORNING AND WITH A PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME EXPECTED...A FEW AREAS COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH ANY
TRAINING STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND
MID DAY...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COOL/BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCE DIVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES. STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  56  70  45 /  80  50  50  10
FSM   75  57  75  49 /  60  50  50  20
MLC   75  57  75  48 /  60  50  40  10
BVO   73  55  70  45 /  80  50  60  10
FYV   72  53  69  44 /  60  50  60  40
BYV   71  55  68  46 /  60  50  60  40
MKO   73  56  72  45 /  60  50  50  10
MIO   73  54  69  45 /  80  50  60  30
F10   74  58  71  47 /  60  50  40  10
HHW   77  57  77  48 /  50  50  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 180454
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT... EVENTUALLY AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST... WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
UPDATE HAS ALREADY BEEN SENT MAINLY TO TWEAK
POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE SOME
ONGOING STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS NW AR OTHERWISE
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOULD HAVE AN
UPTICK IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 180454
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT... EVENTUALLY AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST... WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
UPDATE HAS ALREADY BEEN SENT MAINLY TO TWEAK
POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE SOME
ONGOING STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS NW AR OTHERWISE
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOULD HAVE AN
UPTICK IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 180454
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT... EVENTUALLY AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST... WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
UPDATE HAS ALREADY BEEN SENT MAINLY TO TWEAK
POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE SOME
ONGOING STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS NW AR OTHERWISE
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOULD HAVE AN
UPTICK IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KOUN 180338
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1038 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. THESE MAY CONSOLIDATE AND WEAKEN INTO A BROADER
AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE COMING FEW DAYS REMAINS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS SYSTEM SET THE
STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...BRINGING
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SEVERAL RIPPLES HAVE MOVED AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
PERSISTED FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY INHIBITED DAYTIME
HEATING...RESULTING IN MEAGER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...AS ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE VICINITY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIMEFRAME.
WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR
SHOULD FAVOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM NORTHWESTERN
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...THINGS ARE LESS CLEAR AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. STILL...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY EXIST LATER THIS EVENING IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT
MOVE IN. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AIDED BY
PERSISTENT LIFT AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THE LONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME...THE LESS DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWER THE SEVERE THREAT. THAT BEING SAID...MODELS
INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ONCE AGAIN TO PROMOTE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
FAVOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AS THE MAIN TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...BRINGING COOL AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WEATHER. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEPENING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  76  55  72 /  20  50  40  20
HOBART OK         56  77  50  72 /  20  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  79  53  76 /  20  40  20  10
GAGE OK           52  77  47  66 /  30  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     60  75  54  71 /  40  60  50  40
DURANT OK         62  76  58  76 /  90  50  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/09/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 180338
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1038 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. THESE MAY CONSOLIDATE AND WEAKEN INTO A BROADER
AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE COMING FEW DAYS REMAINS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS SYSTEM SET THE
STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...BRINGING
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SEVERAL RIPPLES HAVE MOVED AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
PERSISTED FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY INHIBITED DAYTIME
HEATING...RESULTING IN MEAGER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...AS ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE VICINITY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIMEFRAME.
WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR
SHOULD FAVOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM NORTHWESTERN
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...THINGS ARE LESS CLEAR AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. STILL...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY EXIST LATER THIS EVENING IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT
MOVE IN. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AIDED BY
PERSISTENT LIFT AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THE LONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME...THE LESS DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWER THE SEVERE THREAT. THAT BEING SAID...MODELS
INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ONCE AGAIN TO PROMOTE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
FAVOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AS THE MAIN TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...BRINGING COOL AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WEATHER. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEPENING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  76  55  72 /  20  50  40  20
HOBART OK         56  77  50  72 /  20  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  79  53  76 /  20  40  20  10
GAGE OK           52  77  47  66 /  30  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     60  75  54  71 /  40  60  50  40
DURANT OK         62  76  58  76 /  90  50  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/09/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 180338
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1038 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. THESE MAY CONSOLIDATE AND WEAKEN INTO A BROADER
AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE COMING FEW DAYS REMAINS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS SYSTEM SET THE
STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...BRINGING
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SEVERAL RIPPLES HAVE MOVED AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
PERSISTED FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY INHIBITED DAYTIME
HEATING...RESULTING IN MEAGER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...AS ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE VICINITY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIMEFRAME.
WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR
SHOULD FAVOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM NORTHWESTERN
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...THINGS ARE LESS CLEAR AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. STILL...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY EXIST LATER THIS EVENING IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT
MOVE IN. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AIDED BY
PERSISTENT LIFT AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THE LONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME...THE LESS DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWER THE SEVERE THREAT. THAT BEING SAID...MODELS
INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ONCE AGAIN TO PROMOTE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
FAVOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AS THE MAIN TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...BRINGING COOL AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WEATHER. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEPENING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  76  55  72 /  20  50  40  20
HOBART OK         56  77  50  72 /  20  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  79  53  76 /  20  40  20  10
GAGE OK           52  77  47  66 /  30  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     60  75  54  71 /  40  60  50  40
DURANT OK         62  76  58  76 /  90  50  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/09/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 180338
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1038 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. THESE MAY CONSOLIDATE AND WEAKEN INTO A BROADER
AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE COMING FEW DAYS REMAINS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS SYSTEM SET THE
STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...BRINGING
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SEVERAL RIPPLES HAVE MOVED AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
PERSISTED FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY INHIBITED DAYTIME
HEATING...RESULTING IN MEAGER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...AS ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE VICINITY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIMEFRAME.
WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR
SHOULD FAVOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM NORTHWESTERN
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...THINGS ARE LESS CLEAR AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. STILL...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY EXIST LATER THIS EVENING IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT
MOVE IN. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AIDED BY
PERSISTENT LIFT AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THE LONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME...THE LESS DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWER THE SEVERE THREAT. THAT BEING SAID...MODELS
INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ONCE AGAIN TO PROMOTE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
FAVOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AS THE MAIN TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...BRINGING COOL AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WEATHER. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEPENING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  76  55  72 /  20  50  40  20
HOBART OK         56  77  50  72 /  20  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  79  53  76 /  20  40  20  10
GAGE OK           52  77  47  66 /  30  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     60  75  54  71 /  40  60  50  40
DURANT OK         62  76  58  76 /  90  50  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/09/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 180338
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1038 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. THESE MAY CONSOLIDATE AND WEAKEN INTO A BROADER
AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE COMING FEW DAYS REMAINS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS SYSTEM SET THE
STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...BRINGING
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SEVERAL RIPPLES HAVE MOVED AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
PERSISTED FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY INHIBITED DAYTIME
HEATING...RESULTING IN MEAGER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...AS ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE VICINITY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIMEFRAME.
WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR
SHOULD FAVOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM NORTHWESTERN
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...THINGS ARE LESS CLEAR AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. STILL...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY EXIST LATER THIS EVENING IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT
MOVE IN. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AIDED BY
PERSISTENT LIFT AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THE LONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME...THE LESS DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWER THE SEVERE THREAT. THAT BEING SAID...MODELS
INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ONCE AGAIN TO PROMOTE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
FAVOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AS THE MAIN TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...BRINGING COOL AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WEATHER. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEPENING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  76  55  72 /  20  50  40  20
HOBART OK         56  77  50  72 /  20  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  79  53  76 /  20  40  20  10
GAGE OK           52  77  47  66 /  30  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     60  75  54  71 /  40  60  50  40
DURANT OK         62  76  58  76 /  90  50  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/09/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 180338
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1038 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. THESE MAY CONSOLIDATE AND WEAKEN INTO A BROADER
AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE COMING FEW DAYS REMAINS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS SYSTEM SET THE
STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...BRINGING
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SEVERAL RIPPLES HAVE MOVED AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
PERSISTED FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY INHIBITED DAYTIME
HEATING...RESULTING IN MEAGER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...AS ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE VICINITY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIMEFRAME.
WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR
SHOULD FAVOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM NORTHWESTERN
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...THINGS ARE LESS CLEAR AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. STILL...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY EXIST LATER THIS EVENING IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT
MOVE IN. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AIDED BY
PERSISTENT LIFT AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THE LONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME...THE LESS DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWER THE SEVERE THREAT. THAT BEING SAID...MODELS
INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ONCE AGAIN TO PROMOTE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
FAVOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AS THE MAIN TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...BRINGING COOL AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WEATHER. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEPENING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  76  55  72 /  20  50  40  20
HOBART OK         56  77  50  72 /  20  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  79  53  76 /  20  40  20  10
GAGE OK           52  77  47  66 /  30  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     60  75  54  71 /  40  60  50  40
DURANT OK         62  76  58  76 /  90  50  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/09/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 180338
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1038 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. THESE MAY CONSOLIDATE AND WEAKEN INTO A BROADER
AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE COMING FEW DAYS REMAINS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS SYSTEM SET THE
STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...BRINGING
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SEVERAL RIPPLES HAVE MOVED AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
PERSISTED FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY INHIBITED DAYTIME
HEATING...RESULTING IN MEAGER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...AS ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE VICINITY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIMEFRAME.
WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR
SHOULD FAVOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM NORTHWESTERN
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...THINGS ARE LESS CLEAR AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. STILL...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY EXIST LATER THIS EVENING IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT
MOVE IN. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AIDED BY
PERSISTENT LIFT AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THE LONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME...THE LESS DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWER THE SEVERE THREAT. THAT BEING SAID...MODELS
INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ONCE AGAIN TO PROMOTE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
FAVOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AS THE MAIN TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...BRINGING COOL AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WEATHER. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEPENING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  76  55  72 /  20  50  40  20
HOBART OK         56  77  50  72 /  20  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  79  53  76 /  20  40  20  10
GAGE OK           52  77  47  66 /  30  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     60  75  54  71 /  40  60  50  40
DURANT OK         62  76  58  76 /  90  50  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/09/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 180338
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1038 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. THESE MAY CONSOLIDATE AND WEAKEN INTO A BROADER
AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE COMING FEW DAYS REMAINS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS SYSTEM SET THE
STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...BRINGING
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SEVERAL RIPPLES HAVE MOVED AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
PERSISTED FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY INHIBITED DAYTIME
HEATING...RESULTING IN MEAGER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...AS ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE VICINITY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIMEFRAME.
WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR
SHOULD FAVOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM NORTHWESTERN
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...THINGS ARE LESS CLEAR AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. STILL...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY EXIST LATER THIS EVENING IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT
MOVE IN. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AIDED BY
PERSISTENT LIFT AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THE LONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME...THE LESS DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWER THE SEVERE THREAT. THAT BEING SAID...MODELS
INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ONCE AGAIN TO PROMOTE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
FAVOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AS THE MAIN TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...BRINGING COOL AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WEATHER. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEPENING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  76  55  72 /  20  50  40  20
HOBART OK         56  77  50  72 /  20  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  79  53  76 /  20  40  20  10
GAGE OK           52  77  47  66 /  30  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     60  75  54  71 /  40  60  50  40
DURANT OK         62  76  58  76 /  90  50  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/09/09



000
FXUS64 KTSA 180215
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
915 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE HAS ALREADY BEEN SENT MAINLY TO TWEAK
POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE SOME
ONGOING STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS NW AR OTHERWISE
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOULD HAVE AN
UPTICK IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  75  57  75 /  60  70  40  50
FSM   63  75  58  78 /  60  70  30  50
MLC   61  76  58  76 /  70  50  30  30
BVO   59  76  55  73 /  70  70  40  50
FYV   58  71  52  71 /  60  70  40  50
BYV   59  72  54  71 /  40  60  40  50
MKO   61  74  55  75 /  60  60  30  50
MIO   59  73  55  72 /  70  60  40  60
F10   61  75  57  75 /  70  60  30  30
HHW   63  75  58  78 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 172255
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
555 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING... EVENTUALLY BECOMING
THE PREVAILING CONDITION. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DETERIOIATE
WITH TIME TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BRIEF MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES... ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM CELLS THAT MAKE A
DIRECT HIT ON A TERMINAL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO/SOUTHERN
COLORADO WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS WEEKEND. WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
BEING ENTRAINED TO THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT WEAKENS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES WILL COME
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS DIFFERENCES ARE PRETTY SIGNIFICANT 6 TO 7 DAYS
OUT.

NOT EXPECTING ANY WILD TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. AT LEAST FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 172255
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
555 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING... EVENTUALLY BECOMING
THE PREVAILING CONDITION. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DETERIOIATE
WITH TIME TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BRIEF MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES... ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM CELLS THAT MAKE A
DIRECT HIT ON A TERMINAL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO/SOUTHERN
COLORADO WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS WEEKEND. WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
BEING ENTRAINED TO THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT WEAKENS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES WILL COME
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS DIFFERENCES ARE PRETTY SIGNIFICANT 6 TO 7 DAYS
OUT.

NOT EXPECTING ANY WILD TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. AT LEAST FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 172255
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
555 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING... EVENTUALLY BECOMING
THE PREVAILING CONDITION. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DETERIOIATE
WITH TIME TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BRIEF MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES... ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM CELLS THAT MAKE A
DIRECT HIT ON A TERMINAL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO/SOUTHERN
COLORADO WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS WEEKEND. WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
BEING ENTRAINED TO THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT WEAKENS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES WILL COME
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS DIFFERENCES ARE PRETTY SIGNIFICANT 6 TO 7 DAYS
OUT.

NOT EXPECTING ANY WILD TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. AT LEAST FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KOUN 172244
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
544 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. THESE MAY CONSOLIDATE AND WEAKEN INTO A BROADER
AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE COMING FEW DAYS REMAINS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS SYSTEM SET THE
STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...BRINGING
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SEVERAL RIPPLES HAVE MOVED AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
PERSISTED FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY INHIBITED DAYTIME
HEATING...RESULTING IN MEAGER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...AS ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE VICINITY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIMEFRAME.
WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR
SHOULD FAVOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM NORTHWESTERN
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...THINGS ARE LESS CLEAR AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. STILL...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY EXIST LATER THIS EVENING IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT
MOVE IN. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AIDED BY
PERSISTENT LIFT AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THE LONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME...THE LESS DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWER THE SEVERE THREAT. THAT BEING SAID...MODELS
INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ONCE AGAIN TO PROMOTE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
FAVOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AS THE MAIN TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...BRINGING COOL AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WEATHER. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEPENING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  60  76  55 /  40  60  50  40
HOBART OK         71  56  77  50 /  60  40  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  59  79  53 /  60  50  40  20
GAGE OK           70  51  77  47 /  50  50  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     76  60  75  54 /  30  60  60  50
DURANT OK         76  62  76  58 /  40  60  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 172244
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
544 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. THESE MAY CONSOLIDATE AND WEAKEN INTO A BROADER
AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE COMING FEW DAYS REMAINS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS SYSTEM SET THE
STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...BRINGING
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SEVERAL RIPPLES HAVE MOVED AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
PERSISTED FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY INHIBITED DAYTIME
HEATING...RESULTING IN MEAGER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...AS ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE VICINITY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIMEFRAME.
WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR
SHOULD FAVOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM NORTHWESTERN
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...THINGS ARE LESS CLEAR AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. STILL...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY EXIST LATER THIS EVENING IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT
MOVE IN. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AIDED BY
PERSISTENT LIFT AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THE LONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME...THE LESS DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWER THE SEVERE THREAT. THAT BEING SAID...MODELS
INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ONCE AGAIN TO PROMOTE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
FAVOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AS THE MAIN TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...BRINGING COOL AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WEATHER. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEPENING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  60  76  55 /  40  60  50  40
HOBART OK         71  56  77  50 /  60  40  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  59  79  53 /  60  50  40  20
GAGE OK           70  51  77  47 /  50  50  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     76  60  75  54 /  30  60  60  50
DURANT OK         76  62  76  58 /  40  60  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 172244
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
544 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. THESE MAY CONSOLIDATE AND WEAKEN INTO A BROADER
AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE COMING FEW DAYS REMAINS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS SYSTEM SET THE
STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...BRINGING
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SEVERAL RIPPLES HAVE MOVED AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
PERSISTED FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY INHIBITED DAYTIME
HEATING...RESULTING IN MEAGER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...AS ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE VICINITY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIMEFRAME.
WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR
SHOULD FAVOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM NORTHWESTERN
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...THINGS ARE LESS CLEAR AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. STILL...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY EXIST LATER THIS EVENING IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT
MOVE IN. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AIDED BY
PERSISTENT LIFT AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THE LONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME...THE LESS DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWER THE SEVERE THREAT. THAT BEING SAID...MODELS
INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ONCE AGAIN TO PROMOTE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
FAVOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AS THE MAIN TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...BRINGING COOL AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WEATHER. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEPENING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  60  76  55 /  40  60  50  40
HOBART OK         71  56  77  50 /  60  40  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  59  79  53 /  60  50  40  20
GAGE OK           70  51  77  47 /  50  50  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     76  60  75  54 /  30  60  60  50
DURANT OK         76  62  76  58 /  40  60  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 172244
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
544 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. THESE MAY CONSOLIDATE AND WEAKEN INTO A BROADER
AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE COMING FEW DAYS REMAINS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS SYSTEM SET THE
STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...BRINGING
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SEVERAL RIPPLES HAVE MOVED AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
PERSISTED FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY INHIBITED DAYTIME
HEATING...RESULTING IN MEAGER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...AS ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE VICINITY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIMEFRAME.
WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR
SHOULD FAVOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM NORTHWESTERN
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...THINGS ARE LESS CLEAR AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. STILL...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY EXIST LATER THIS EVENING IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT
MOVE IN. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AIDED BY
PERSISTENT LIFT AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THE LONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME...THE LESS DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWER THE SEVERE THREAT. THAT BEING SAID...MODELS
INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ONCE AGAIN TO PROMOTE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
FAVOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AS THE MAIN TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...BRINGING COOL AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WEATHER. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEPENING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  60  76  55 /  40  60  50  40
HOBART OK         71  56  77  50 /  60  40  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  59  79  53 /  60  50  40  20
GAGE OK           70  51  77  47 /  50  50  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     76  60  75  54 /  30  60  60  50
DURANT OK         76  62  76  58 /  40  60  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/09/09




000
FXUS64 KTSA 172005
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
305 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO/SOUTHERN
COLORADO WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS WEEKEND. WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
BEING ENTRAINED TO THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT WEAKENS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES WILL COME
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS DIFFERENCES ARE PRETTY SIGNIFICANT 6 TO 7 DAYS
OUT.

NOT EXPECTING ANY WILD TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. AT LEAST FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  75  57  75 /  70  70  40  50
FSM   63  75  58  78 /  60  70  30  50
MLC   61  76  58  76 /  70  50  30  30
BVO   59  76  55  73 /  70  70  40  50
FYV   58  71  52  71 /  50  70  40  50
BYV   59  72  54  71 /  40  60  40  50
MKO   61  74  55  75 /  70  60  30  50
MIO   59  73  55  72 /  70  60  40  60
F10   61  75  57  75 /  60  60  30  30
HHW   63  75  58  78 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....10






000
FXUS64 KOUN 171945
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE COMING FEW DAYS REMAINS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS SYSTEM SET THE
STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...BRINGING
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SEVERAL RIPPLES HAVE MOVED AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
PERSISTED FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY INHIBITED DAYTIME
HEATING...RESULTING IN MEAGER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...AS ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE VICINITY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIMEFRAME.
WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR
SHOULD FAVOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM NORTHWESTERN
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...THINGS ARE LESS CLEAR AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. STILL...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY EXIST LATER THIS EVENING IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT
MOVE IN. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AIDED BY
PERSISTENT LIFT AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THE LONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME...THE LESS DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWER THE SEVERE THREAT. THAT BEING SAID...MODELS
INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ONCE AGAIN TO PROMOTE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
FAVOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AS THE MAIN TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...BRINGING COOL AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WEATHER. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEPENING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  76  55  72 /  60  50  40  20
HOBART OK         56  77  50  72 /  40  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  79  53  76 /  50  40  20  10
GAGE OK           51  77  47  66 /  50  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     60  75  54  71 /  60  60  50  40
DURANT OK         62  76  58  76 /  60  50  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 171945
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE COMING FEW DAYS REMAINS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS SYSTEM SET THE
STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...BRINGING
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SEVERAL RIPPLES HAVE MOVED AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
PERSISTED FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY INHIBITED DAYTIME
HEATING...RESULTING IN MEAGER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...AS ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE VICINITY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIMEFRAME.
WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR
SHOULD FAVOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM NORTHWESTERN
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...THINGS ARE LESS CLEAR AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. STILL...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY EXIST LATER THIS EVENING IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT
MOVE IN. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AIDED BY
PERSISTENT LIFT AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THE LONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME...THE LESS DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWER THE SEVERE THREAT. THAT BEING SAID...MODELS
INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ONCE AGAIN TO PROMOTE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
FAVOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AS THE MAIN TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...BRINGING COOL AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WEATHER. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEPENING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  76  55  72 /  60  50  40  20
HOBART OK         56  77  50  72 /  40  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  79  53  76 /  50  40  20  10
GAGE OK           51  77  47  66 /  50  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     60  75  54  71 /  60  60  50  40
DURANT OK         62  76  58  76 /  60  50  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/84



000
FXUS64 KTSA 171826
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
126 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...

CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA FIRST...AND THEN PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...AND HAVE PUT
CHANCES OF THUNDERSHOWERS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH
PREVAILING AT ALL SITES AFTER 06Z. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
FOLLOWING FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED WEST OF THE
AREA...AND TRACKED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BY MID MORNING...THE STRONGER STORMS HAD
WEAKENED AS THEY LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS UP ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE MORNING
STORMS...AND LOWERED POPS BEHIND THE EXITING LINE OF STORMS AS
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN PRECIP ACTIVITY UNTIL THE SECOND ROUND
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
TEMPS AS CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RECOVER AS THE PRECIP MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA AND CEILINGS RISE. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA...CREATING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF PONCA CITY MAKING
VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR-
MASS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OR ANY LINGERING MCV TYPE FEATURES FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. BETTER STORM CHANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES WITH A LEAST A LIMITED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR
INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

COOL/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  75  57  75 /  70  70  40  50
FSM   63  75  58  78 /  60  70  30  50
MLC   61  76  58  76 /  70  50  30  30
BVO   59  76  55  73 /  70  70  40  50
FYV   58  71  52  71 /  50  70  40  50
BYV   59  72  54  71 /  40  60  40  50
MKO   61  74  55  75 /  70  60  30  50
MIO   59  73  55  72 /  70  60  40  60
F10   61  75  57  75 /  60  60  30  30
HHW   63  75  58  78 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
AVIATION...16





000
FXUS64 KTSA 171826
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
126 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...

CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA FIRST...AND THEN PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...AND HAVE PUT
CHANCES OF THUNDERSHOWERS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH
PREVAILING AT ALL SITES AFTER 06Z. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
FOLLOWING FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED WEST OF THE
AREA...AND TRACKED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BY MID MORNING...THE STRONGER STORMS HAD
WEAKENED AS THEY LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS UP ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE MORNING
STORMS...AND LOWERED POPS BEHIND THE EXITING LINE OF STORMS AS
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN PRECIP ACTIVITY UNTIL THE SECOND ROUND
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
TEMPS AS CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RECOVER AS THE PRECIP MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA AND CEILINGS RISE. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA...CREATING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF PONCA CITY MAKING
VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR-
MASS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OR ANY LINGERING MCV TYPE FEATURES FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. BETTER STORM CHANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES WITH A LEAST A LIMITED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR
INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

COOL/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  75  57  75 /  70  70  40  50
FSM   63  75  58  78 /  60  70  30  50
MLC   61  76  58  76 /  70  50  30  30
BVO   59  76  55  73 /  70  70  40  50
FYV   58  71  52  71 /  50  70  40  50
BYV   59  72  54  71 /  40  60  40  50
MKO   61  74  55  75 /  70  60  30  50
MIO   59  73  55  72 /  70  60  40  60
F10   61  75  57  75 /  60  60  30  30
HHW   63  75  58  78 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
AVIATION...16






000
FXUS64 KTSA 171826
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
126 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...

CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA FIRST...AND THEN PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...AND HAVE PUT
CHANCES OF THUNDERSHOWERS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH
PREVAILING AT ALL SITES AFTER 06Z. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
FOLLOWING FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED WEST OF THE
AREA...AND TRACKED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BY MID MORNING...THE STRONGER STORMS HAD
WEAKENED AS THEY LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS UP ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE MORNING
STORMS...AND LOWERED POPS BEHIND THE EXITING LINE OF STORMS AS
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN PRECIP ACTIVITY UNTIL THE SECOND ROUND
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
TEMPS AS CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RECOVER AS THE PRECIP MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA AND CEILINGS RISE. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA...CREATING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF PONCA CITY MAKING
VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR-
MASS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OR ANY LINGERING MCV TYPE FEATURES FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. BETTER STORM CHANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES WITH A LEAST A LIMITED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR
INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

COOL/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  75  57  75 /  70  70  40  50
FSM   63  75  58  78 /  60  70  30  50
MLC   61  76  58  76 /  70  50  30  30
BVO   59  76  55  73 /  70  70  40  50
FYV   58  71  52  71 /  50  70  40  50
BYV   59  72  54  71 /  40  60  40  50
MKO   61  74  55  75 /  70  60  30  50
MIO   59  73  55  72 /  70  60  40  60
F10   61  75  57  75 /  60  60  30  30
HHW   63  75  58  78 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
AVIATION...16






000
FXUS64 KTSA 171826
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
126 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...

CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA FIRST...AND THEN PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...AND HAVE PUT
CHANCES OF THUNDERSHOWERS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH
PREVAILING AT ALL SITES AFTER 06Z. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
FOLLOWING FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED WEST OF THE
AREA...AND TRACKED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BY MID MORNING...THE STRONGER STORMS HAD
WEAKENED AS THEY LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS UP ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE MORNING
STORMS...AND LOWERED POPS BEHIND THE EXITING LINE OF STORMS AS
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN PRECIP ACTIVITY UNTIL THE SECOND ROUND
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
TEMPS AS CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RECOVER AS THE PRECIP MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA AND CEILINGS RISE. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA...CREATING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF PONCA CITY MAKING
VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR-
MASS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OR ANY LINGERING MCV TYPE FEATURES FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. BETTER STORM CHANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES WITH A LEAST A LIMITED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR
INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

COOL/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  75  57  75 /  70  70  40  50
FSM   63  75  58  78 /  60  70  30  50
MLC   61  76  58  76 /  70  50  30  30
BVO   59  76  55  73 /  70  70  40  50
FYV   58  71  52  71 /  50  70  40  50
BYV   59  72  54  71 /  40  60  40  50
MKO   61  74  55  75 /  70  60  30  50
MIO   59  73  55  72 /  70  60  40  60
F10   61  75  57  75 /  60  60  30  30
HHW   63  75  58  78 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
AVIATION...16






000
FXUS64 KTSA 171826
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
126 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...

CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA FIRST...AND THEN PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...AND HAVE PUT
CHANCES OF THUNDERSHOWERS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH
PREVAILING AT ALL SITES AFTER 06Z. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
FOLLOWING FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED WEST OF THE
AREA...AND TRACKED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BY MID MORNING...THE STRONGER STORMS HAD
WEAKENED AS THEY LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS UP ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE MORNING
STORMS...AND LOWERED POPS BEHIND THE EXITING LINE OF STORMS AS
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN PRECIP ACTIVITY UNTIL THE SECOND ROUND
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
TEMPS AS CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RECOVER AS THE PRECIP MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA AND CEILINGS RISE. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA...CREATING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF PONCA CITY MAKING
VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR-
MASS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OR ANY LINGERING MCV TYPE FEATURES FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. BETTER STORM CHANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES WITH A LEAST A LIMITED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR
INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

COOL/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  75  57  75 /  70  70  40  50
FSM   63  75  58  78 /  60  70  30  50
MLC   61  76  58  76 /  70  50  30  30
BVO   59  76  55  73 /  70  70  40  50
FYV   58  71  52  71 /  50  70  40  50
BYV   59  72  54  71 /  40  60  40  50
MKO   61  74  55  75 /  70  60  30  50
MIO   59  73  55  72 /  70  60  40  60
F10   61  75  57  75 /  60  60  30  30
HHW   63  75  58  78 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
AVIATION...16






000
FXUS64 KTSA 171826
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
126 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...

CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA FIRST...AND THEN PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...AND HAVE PUT
CHANCES OF THUNDERSHOWERS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH
PREVAILING AT ALL SITES AFTER 06Z. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
FOLLOWING FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED WEST OF THE
AREA...AND TRACKED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BY MID MORNING...THE STRONGER STORMS HAD
WEAKENED AS THEY LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS UP ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE MORNING
STORMS...AND LOWERED POPS BEHIND THE EXITING LINE OF STORMS AS
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN PRECIP ACTIVITY UNTIL THE SECOND ROUND
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
TEMPS AS CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RECOVER AS THE PRECIP MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA AND CEILINGS RISE. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA...CREATING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF PONCA CITY MAKING
VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR-
MASS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OR ANY LINGERING MCV TYPE FEATURES FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. BETTER STORM CHANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES WITH A LEAST A LIMITED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR
INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

COOL/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  75  57  75 /  70  70  40  50
FSM   63  75  58  78 /  60  70  30  50
MLC   61  76  58  76 /  70  50  30  30
BVO   59  76  55  73 /  70  70  40  50
FYV   58  71  52  71 /  50  70  40  50
BYV   59  72  54  71 /  40  60  40  50
MKO   61  74  55  75 /  70  60  30  50
MIO   59  73  55  72 /  70  60  40  60
F10   61  75  57  75 /  60  60  30  30
HHW   63  75  58  78 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
AVIATION...16





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