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000
FXUS64 KOUN 201131
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
631 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTOMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE,
BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPCETED AFTER 210600.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
WEST IS BRINGING THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN TO AREAS IN AND NEAR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REST OF WESTERN
AND PART OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
AMOUNTS AND LITTLE THUNDER. SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE A SECOND ROUND
OF RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, WHEN OKLAHOMA CITY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. THE TROUGH
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND A THIRD ROUND OF RAIN MAY OCCUR IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IN GENERAL, AMOUNTS ARE NOT TO
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY. ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE ARE EXPECTED IN
OK WITH MORE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. AFTER THE CLOUDS
MOVE OUT WITH THE TROUGH LATER MONDAY, THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
BE IN A WARMING TREND. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN. THIS TIME, THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. DEPENDING ON TIMING, THIS COULD BRING HEIGHTENED
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL AND A FOCUS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
ARE NOT CONGRUENT WITH THE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THEY DO
BRING RAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  59  74  51 /  60  60  50  10
HOBART OK         74  57  80  52 /  50  50  30   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  60  81  54 /  50  50  40  10
GAGE OK           77  56  78  51 /  40  40  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     79  59  74  47 /  50  60  60   0
DURANT OK         79  61  77  57 /  30  60  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/99/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 201131
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
631 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTOMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE,
BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPCETED AFTER 210600.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
WEST IS BRINGING THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN TO AREAS IN AND NEAR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REST OF WESTERN
AND PART OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
AMOUNTS AND LITTLE THUNDER. SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE A SECOND ROUND
OF RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, WHEN OKLAHOMA CITY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. THE TROUGH
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND A THIRD ROUND OF RAIN MAY OCCUR IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IN GENERAL, AMOUNTS ARE NOT TO
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY. ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE ARE EXPECTED IN
OK WITH MORE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. AFTER THE CLOUDS
MOVE OUT WITH THE TROUGH LATER MONDAY, THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
BE IN A WARMING TREND. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN. THIS TIME, THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. DEPENDING ON TIMING, THIS COULD BRING HEIGHTENED
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL AND A FOCUS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
ARE NOT CONGRUENT WITH THE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THEY DO
BRING RAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  59  74  51 /  60  60  50  10
HOBART OK         74  57  80  52 /  50  50  30   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  60  81  54 /  50  50  40  10
GAGE OK           77  56  78  51 /  40  40  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     79  59  74  47 /  50  60  60   0
DURANT OK         79  61  77  57 /  30  60  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/99/09



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000
FXUS64 KTSA 201045
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
545 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH A FEW AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...ALONG
WITH MVFR CIGS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... CREATING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. UPPER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT ESPECIALLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER... FAIRLY GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE... WITH A WIDESPREAD HALF TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN THURSDAY MORNING AS A
STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS IT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER
DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO A FEW STRONG
STORMS DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE OUR NEXT TROUBLEMAKER BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  60  75  53 /  40  80  70  30
FSM   79  59  74  56 /  20  60  80  40
MLC   77  60  73  57 /  30  80  70  30
BVO   80  59  76  51 /  40  70  60  20
FYV   75  56  71  53 /  20  50  90  40
BYV   77  55  72  52 /  10  40  90  50
MKO   78  59  74  55 /  30  80  80  30
MIO   79  59  73  51 /  20  60  70  20
F10   76  60  74  55 /  30  80  70  30
HHW   77  60  74  59 /  20  50  60  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KOUN 200834
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
334 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
WEST IS BRINGING THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN TO AREAS IN AND NEAR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REST OF WESTERN
AND PART OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
AMOUNTS AND LITTLE THUNDER. SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE A SECOND ROUND
OF RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, WHEN OKLAHOMA CITY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. THE TROUGH
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND A THIRD ROUND OF RAIN MAY OCCUR IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IN GENERAL, AMOUNTS ARE NOT TO
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY. ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE ARE EXPECTED IN
OK WITH MORE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. AFTER THE CLOUDS
MOVE OUT WITH THE TROUGH LATER MONDAY, THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
BE IN A WARMING TREND. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN. THIS TIME, THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. DEPENDING ON TIMING, THIS COULD BRING HEIGHTENED
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL AND A FOCUS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
ARE NOT CONGRUENT WITH THE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THEY DO
BRING RAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  59  74  51 /  60  60  50  10
HOBART OK         74  57  80  52 /  50  50  30   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  60  81  54 /  50  50  40  10
GAGE OK           77  56  78  51 /  40  40  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     79  59  74  47 /  50  60  60   0
DURANT OK         79  61  77  57 /  30  60  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 200834
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
334 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
WEST IS BRINGING THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN TO AREAS IN AND NEAR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REST OF WESTERN
AND PART OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
AMOUNTS AND LITTLE THUNDER. SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE A SECOND ROUND
OF RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, WHEN OKLAHOMA CITY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. THE TROUGH
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND A THIRD ROUND OF RAIN MAY OCCUR IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IN GENERAL, AMOUNTS ARE NOT TO
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY. ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE ARE EXPECTED IN
OK WITH MORE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. AFTER THE CLOUDS
MOVE OUT WITH THE TROUGH LATER MONDAY, THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
BE IN A WARMING TREND. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN. THIS TIME, THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. DEPENDING ON TIMING, THIS COULD BRING HEIGHTENED
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL AND A FOCUS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
ARE NOT CONGRUENT WITH THE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THEY DO
BRING RAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  59  74  51 /  60  60  50  10
HOBART OK         74  57  80  52 /  50  50  30   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  60  81  54 /  50  50  40  10
GAGE OK           77  56  78  51 /  40  40  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     79  59  74  47 /  50  60  60   0
DURANT OK         79  61  77  57 /  30  60  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09




000
FXUS64 KTSA 200800
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... CREATING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. UPPER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT ESPECIALLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER... FAIRLY GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE... WITH A WIDESPREAD HALF TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN THURSDAY MORNING AS A
STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS IT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER
DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO A FEW STRONG
STORMS DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE OUR NEXT TROUBLEMAKER BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  60  75  53 /  40  80  70  30
FSM   79  59  74  56 /  20  60  80  40
MLC   77  60  73  57 /  30  80  70  30
BVO   80  59  76  51 /  40  70  60  20
FYV   75  56  71  53 /  20  50  90  40
BYV   77  55  72  52 /  10  40  90  50
MKO   78  59  74  55 /  30  80  80  30
MIO   79  59  73  51 /  20  60  70  20
F10   76  60  74  55 /  30  80  70  30
HHW   77  60  74  59 /  20  50  60  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 200440
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1140 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-5K FEET DEVELOPING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST TRACKING REASONABLY WELL THIS EVENING...DID BUMP
OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN VALLEY LOCATIONS OF SE
OKLAHOMA BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AS WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STRATOCUMULUS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 4K FEET. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS...WITH BETTER CHANCES
HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A LIMITED FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTH OF INTERSTATE
44...AS WARM/BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. BROAD UPPER LOW...MOVING
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING. MAIN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY STAY WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW GIVEN THE
TIME OF DAY AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY/MILD CONDITIONS
INTO TUESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

STRONGER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STAY NORTH OF
THE AREA. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH RIGHT
REAR QUAD OF JET COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KOUN 200352
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1052 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. -SHRA/-TSRA TIMING AND
LOCATIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 10Z...
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AFTER 10Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-
KDFW. LOCATIONS WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-KDFW ARE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AFTER 12Z. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AFTER 02Z MONDAY...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

ISO-SCT -SHRA WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AFTER 09Z. KOKC MAY BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS
EARLY AS 12Z...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 18Z. KSPS AND
KLAW WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA 12-18Z. TSRA POTENTIAL IS
HIGHEST AT THESE SITES 21-01Z...SO WILL KEEP VCTS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...
GIVEN CURRENT STATE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WEST/CENTRAL
TEXAS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND TRIM BACK POPS THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY/A STRAY STORM MAY MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FROM 4 AM THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A
FEW STORMS MINGLED IN BY AFTERNOON. CURRENT OBS SHOW FAIRLY MILD
TEMPS...AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER ATOP SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW ONLY MODEST COOLING INTO THE MORNING...THUS HAVE INCREASED
MORNING LOWS. ALSO MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND
WINDS TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. -SHRA/-TSRA TIMING AND
LOCATIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 12Z...
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AFTER 12Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-
KDFW. THESE LOCATIONS WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-KDFW ARE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AFTER 12Z.

ONGOING SHRA/TSRA NEAR KAMA AND WEST OF KCDS WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL SHRA
MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 04Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES
WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL 09Z. KOKC MAY BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY
AS 12Z...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 19Z. KSPS AND KLAW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY AS 08Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO IMPACT BODY OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT. SOME ORGANIZATION
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS EXIT REGION OF STRONGER JET
SHIFTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. ATTM...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW OVER OUR CWA WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY...BUT MARGINAL HAIL THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH
CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION CAN BE REALIZED. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT EAST/SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. NO SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
FROPA.

WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ADVERTISED LONG-WAVE
TROUGH. BETTER FLOW AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUSTAINED SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR HIGHER WEDNESDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. ECM IS
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND FASTER THAN GFS BUT BOTH POINT TO
POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT NEAR WESTERN OK BORDER LATE
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER REGION WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ELEVATED WILDFIRE DAY POSSIBLE THURSDAY IF WINDS END UP
BEING STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 200352
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1052 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. -SHRA/-TSRA TIMING AND
LOCATIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 10Z...
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AFTER 10Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-
KDFW. LOCATIONS WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-KDFW ARE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AFTER 12Z. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AFTER 02Z MONDAY...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

ISO-SCT -SHRA WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AFTER 09Z. KOKC MAY BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS
EARLY AS 12Z...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 18Z. KSPS AND
KLAW WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA 12-18Z. TSRA POTENTIAL IS
HIGHEST AT THESE SITES 21-01Z...SO WILL KEEP VCTS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...
GIVEN CURRENT STATE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WEST/CENTRAL
TEXAS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND TRIM BACK POPS THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY/A STRAY STORM MAY MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FROM 4 AM THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A
FEW STORMS MINGLED IN BY AFTERNOON. CURRENT OBS SHOW FAIRLY MILD
TEMPS...AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER ATOP SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW ONLY MODEST COOLING INTO THE MORNING...THUS HAVE INCREASED
MORNING LOWS. ALSO MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND
WINDS TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. -SHRA/-TSRA TIMING AND
LOCATIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 12Z...
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AFTER 12Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-
KDFW. THESE LOCATIONS WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-KDFW ARE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AFTER 12Z.

ONGOING SHRA/TSRA NEAR KAMA AND WEST OF KCDS WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL SHRA
MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 04Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES
WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL 09Z. KOKC MAY BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY
AS 12Z...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 19Z. KSPS AND KLAW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY AS 08Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO IMPACT BODY OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT. SOME ORGANIZATION
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS EXIT REGION OF STRONGER JET
SHIFTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. ATTM...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW OVER OUR CWA WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY...BUT MARGINAL HAIL THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH
CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION CAN BE REALIZED. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT EAST/SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. NO SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
FROPA.

WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ADVERTISED LONG-WAVE
TROUGH. BETTER FLOW AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUSTAINED SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR HIGHER WEDNESDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. ECM IS
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND FASTER THAN GFS BUT BOTH POINT TO
POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT NEAR WESTERN OK BORDER LATE
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER REGION WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ELEVATED WILDFIRE DAY POSSIBLE THURSDAY IF WINDS END UP
BEING STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 200346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
GIVEN CURRENT STATE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WEST/CENTRAL
TEXAS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND TRIM BACK POPS THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY/A STRAY STORM MAY MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FROM 4 AM THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A
FEW STORMS MINGLED IN BY AFTERNOON. CURRENT OBS SHOW FAIRLY MILD
TEMPS...AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER ATOP SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW ONLY MODEST COOLING INTO THE MORNING...THUS HAVE INCREASED
MORNING LOWS. ALSO MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND
WINDS TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. -SHRA/-TSRA TIMING AND
LOCATIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 12Z...
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AFTER 12Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-
KDFW. THESE LOCATIONS WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-KDFW ARE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AFTER 12Z.

ONGOING SHRA/TSRA NEAR KAMA AND WEST OF KCDS WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL SHRA
MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 04Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES
WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL 09Z. KOKC MAY BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY
AS 12Z...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 19Z. KSPS AND KLAW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY AS 08Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO IMPACT BODY OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT. SOME ORGANIZATION
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS EXIT REGION OF STRONGER JET
SHIFTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. ATTM...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW OVER OUR CWA WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY...BUT MARGINAL HAIL THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH
CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION CAN BE REALIZED. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT EAST/SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. NO SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
FROPA.

WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ADVERTISED LONG-WAVE
TROUGH. BETTER FLOW AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUSTAINED SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR HIGHER WEDNESDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. ECM IS
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND FASTER THAN GFS BUT BOTH POINT TO
POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT NEAR WESTERN OK BORDER LATE
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER REGION WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ELEVATED WILDFIRE DAY POSSIBLE THURSDAY IF WINDS END UP
BEING STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  59  75  59 /   0  10  60  60
HOBART OK         78  57  74  57 /  10  30  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  59  75  60 /  10  30  50  50
GAGE OK           79  57  77  56 /  10  30  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     80  59  79  59 /   0   0  50  60
DURANT OK         77  58  79  61 /   0  10  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 200346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
GIVEN CURRENT STATE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WEST/CENTRAL
TEXAS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND TRIM BACK POPS THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY/A STRAY STORM MAY MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FROM 4 AM THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A
FEW STORMS MINGLED IN BY AFTERNOON. CURRENT OBS SHOW FAIRLY MILD
TEMPS...AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER ATOP SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW ONLY MODEST COOLING INTO THE MORNING...THUS HAVE INCREASED
MORNING LOWS. ALSO MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND
WINDS TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. -SHRA/-TSRA TIMING AND
LOCATIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 12Z...
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AFTER 12Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-
KDFW. THESE LOCATIONS WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-KDFW ARE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AFTER 12Z.

ONGOING SHRA/TSRA NEAR KAMA AND WEST OF KCDS WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL SHRA
MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 04Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES
WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL 09Z. KOKC MAY BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY
AS 12Z...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 19Z. KSPS AND KLAW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY AS 08Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO IMPACT BODY OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT. SOME ORGANIZATION
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS EXIT REGION OF STRONGER JET
SHIFTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. ATTM...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW OVER OUR CWA WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY...BUT MARGINAL HAIL THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH
CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION CAN BE REALIZED. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT EAST/SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. NO SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
FROPA.

WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ADVERTISED LONG-WAVE
TROUGH. BETTER FLOW AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUSTAINED SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR HIGHER WEDNESDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. ECM IS
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND FASTER THAN GFS BUT BOTH POINT TO
POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT NEAR WESTERN OK BORDER LATE
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER REGION WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ELEVATED WILDFIRE DAY POSSIBLE THURSDAY IF WINDS END UP
BEING STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  59  75  59 /   0  10  60  60
HOBART OK         78  57  74  57 /  10  30  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  59  75  60 /  10  30  50  50
GAGE OK           79  57  77  56 /  10  30  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     80  59  79  59 /   0   0  50  60
DURANT OK         77  58  79  61 /   0  10  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 200245
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST TRACKING REASONABLY WELL THIS EVENING...DID BUMP
OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN VALLEY LOCATIONS OF SE
OKLAHOMA BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AS WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STRATOCUMULUS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 4K FEET. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS...WITH BETTER CHANCES
HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A LIMITED FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTH OF INTERSTATE
44...AS WARM/BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. BROAD UPPER LOW...MOVING
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING. MAIN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY STAY WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW GIVEN THE
TIME OF DAY AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY/MILD CONDITIONS
INTO TUESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

STRONGER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STAY NORTH OF
THE AREA. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH RIGHT
REAR QUAD OF JET COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  79  61  77 /  10  40  70  60
FSM   56  77  60  75 /   0  20  50  70
MLC   57  77  60  75 /   0  30  60  50
BVO   54  79  58  77 /  10  40  70  60
FYV   50  75  57  71 /   0  20  50  70
BYV   52  77  56  72 /   0  20  40  70
MKO   56  78  60  75 /  10  40  70  60
MIO   55  79  59  74 /  10  20  70  70
F10   56  78  60  76 /  10  40  70  60
HHW   57  77  60  76 /   0  20  50  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99








000
FXUS64 KOUN 192347
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. -SHRA/-TSRA TIMING AND
LOCATIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 12Z...
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AFTER 12Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-
KDFW. THESE LOCATIONS WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-KDFW ARE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AFTER 12Z.

ONGOING SHRA/TSRA NEAR KAMA AND WEST OF KCDS WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL SHRA
MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 04Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES
WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL 09Z. KOKC MAY BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY
AS 12Z...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 19Z. KSPS AND KLAW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY AS 08Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO IMPACT BODY OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT. SOME ORGANIZATION
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS EXIT REGION OF STRONGER JET
SHIFTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. ATTM...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW OVER OUR CWA WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY...BUT MARGINAL HAIL THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH
CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION CAN BE REALIZED. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT EAST/SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. NO SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
FROPA.

WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ADVERTISED LONG-WAVE
TROUGH. BETTER FLOW AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUSTAINED SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR HIGHER WEDNESDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. ECM IS
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND FASTER THAN GFS BUT BOTH POINT TO
POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT NEAR WESTERN OK BORDER LATE
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER REGION WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ELEVATED WILDFIRE DAY POSSIBLE THURSDAY IF WINDS END UP
BEING STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  75  59  77 /  10  60  60  50
HOBART OK         58  74  57  80 /  20  50  50  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  75  60  81 /  20  50  50  40
GAGE OK           58  77  56  78 /  20  40  40  20
PONCA CITY OK     58  79  59  77 /  10  50  60  50
DURANT OK         58  79  61  77 /  10  30  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 192347
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. -SHRA/-TSRA TIMING AND
LOCATIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 12Z...
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AFTER 12Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-
KDFW. THESE LOCATIONS WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-KDFW ARE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AFTER 12Z.

ONGOING SHRA/TSRA NEAR KAMA AND WEST OF KCDS WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL SHRA
MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 04Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES
WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL 09Z. KOKC MAY BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY
AS 12Z...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 19Z. KSPS AND KLAW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY AS 08Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO IMPACT BODY OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT. SOME ORGANIZATION
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS EXIT REGION OF STRONGER JET
SHIFTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. ATTM...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW OVER OUR CWA WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY...BUT MARGINAL HAIL THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH
CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION CAN BE REALIZED. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT EAST/SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. NO SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
FROPA.

WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ADVERTISED LONG-WAVE
TROUGH. BETTER FLOW AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUSTAINED SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR HIGHER WEDNESDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. ECM IS
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND FASTER THAN GFS BUT BOTH POINT TO
POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT NEAR WESTERN OK BORDER LATE
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER REGION WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ELEVATED WILDFIRE DAY POSSIBLE THURSDAY IF WINDS END UP
BEING STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  75  59  77 /  10  60  60  50
HOBART OK         58  74  57  80 /  20  50  50  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  75  60  81 /  20  50  50  40
GAGE OK           58  77  56  78 /  20  40  40  20
PONCA CITY OK     58  79  59  77 /  10  50  60  50
DURANT OK         58  79  61  77 /  10  30  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 192328
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
628 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STRATOCUMULUS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 4K FEET. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS...WITH BETTER CHANCES
HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A LIMITED FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTH OF INTERSTATE
44...AS WARM/BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. BROAD UPPER LOW...MOVING
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING. MAIN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY STAY WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW GIVEN THE
TIME OF DAY AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY/MILD CONDITIONS
INTO TUESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

STRONGER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STAY NORTH OF
THE AREA. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH RIGHT
REAR QUAD OF JET COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KOUN 191959
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
259 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO IMPACT BODY OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT. SOME ORGANIZATION
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS EXIT REGION OF STRONGER JET
SHIFTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. ATTM...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW OVER OUR CWA WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY...BUT MARGINAL HAIL THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH
CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION CAN BE REALIZED. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT EAST/SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. NO SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
FROPA.

WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ADVERTISED LONG-WAVE
TROUGH. BETTER FLOW AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUSTAINED SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR HIGHER WEDNESDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. ECM IS
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND FASTER THAN GFS BUT BOTH POINT TO
POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT NEAR WESTERN OK BORDER LATE
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER REGION WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ELEVATED WILDFIRE DAY POSSIBLE THURSDAY IF WINDS END UP
BEING STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  75  59  77 /  10  60  60  50
HOBART OK         58  74  57  80 /  20  50  50  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  75  60  81 /  20  50  50  40
GAGE OK           58  77  56  78 /  20  40  40  20
PONCA CITY OK     58  79  59  77 /  10  50  60  50
DURANT OK         58  79  61  77 /  10  30  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 191957
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
257 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A LIMITED FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTH OF INTERSTATE
44...AS WARM/BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. BROAD UPPER LOW...MOVING
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING. MAIN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY STAY WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW GIVEN THE
TIME OF DAY AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY/MILD CONDITIONS
INTO TUESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

STRONGER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STAY NORTH OF
THE AREA. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH RIGHT
REAR QUAD OF JET COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  79  60  76 /  10  40  70  60
FSM   56  77  59  74 /   0  20  50  70
MLC   57  77  59  74 /   0  30  60  50
BVO   54  79  57  76 /  10  40  70  60
FYV   50  75  56  70 /   0  20  50  70
BYV   52  77  55  71 /   0  20  40  70
MKO   56  78  59  74 /  10  40  70  60
MIO   55  79  58  74 /  10  20  70  70
F10   56  78  59  74 /  10  40  70  60
HHW   57  77  59  75 /   0  20  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KOUN 191753
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1253 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
19/18Z TAFS...WILL KEEP TERMINALS VFR MOST OF FORECAST PERIOD.
PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION UNTIL AFTER
ABOUT 09Z- 12Z AND WILL LEAVE THEM PROB30. MVFR CIGS AND VIS
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND KSPS
TERMINALS TOWARD/AFTER 12Z. HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED BEYOND
THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  57  76  61 /   0  10  50  60
HOBART OK         78  57  76  58 /  10  30  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  58  78  61 /  10  20  50  50
GAGE OK           79  56  79  54 /  10  30  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     80  58  77  61 /   0  10  40  60
DURANT OK         77  57  79  62 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 191753
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1253 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
19/18Z TAFS...WILL KEEP TERMINALS VFR MOST OF FORECAST PERIOD.
PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION UNTIL AFTER
ABOUT 09Z- 12Z AND WILL LEAVE THEM PROB30. MVFR CIGS AND VIS
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND KSPS
TERMINALS TOWARD/AFTER 12Z. HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED BEYOND
THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  57  76  61 /   0  10  50  60
HOBART OK         78  57  76  58 /  10  30  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  58  78  61 /  10  20  50  50
GAGE OK           79  56  79  54 /  10  30  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     80  58  77  61 /   0  10  40  60
DURANT OK         77  57  79  62 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 191753
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1253 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
19/18Z TAFS...WILL KEEP TERMINALS VFR MOST OF FORECAST PERIOD.
PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION UNTIL AFTER
ABOUT 09Z- 12Z AND WILL LEAVE THEM PROB30. MVFR CIGS AND VIS
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND KSPS
TERMINALS TOWARD/AFTER 12Z. HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED BEYOND
THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  57  76  61 /   0  10  50  60
HOBART OK         78  57  76  58 /  10  30  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  58  78  61 /  10  20  50  50
GAGE OK           79  56  79  54 /  10  30  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     80  58  77  61 /   0  10  40  60
DURANT OK         77  57  79  62 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 191753
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1253 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
19/18Z TAFS...WILL KEEP TERMINALS VFR MOST OF FORECAST PERIOD.
PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION UNTIL AFTER
ABOUT 09Z- 12Z AND WILL LEAVE THEM PROB30. MVFR CIGS AND VIS
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND KSPS
TERMINALS TOWARD/AFTER 12Z. HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED BEYOND
THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  57  76  61 /   0  10  50  60
HOBART OK         78  57  76  58 /  10  30  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  58  78  61 /  10  20  50  50
GAGE OK           79  56  79  54 /  10  30  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     80  58  77  61 /   0  10  40  60
DURANT OK         77  57  79  62 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 191736
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1236 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH/MID CLOUD OVERSPREADING AREA
OVERNIGHT. SHRA CHANCE TSRA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS NE OK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL FULLY MAKE A RETURN TODAY TO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...LEADING TO EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN WERE SEEN YESTERDAY AND A FAIRLY MINOR INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO
LOOK GOOD FOR THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY PERIOD /ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY/ AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK HIGH
WITH THIS ROUND OF STORMS...PRIMARILY DUE TO LIMITED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK. IT COULD BE AS LATE AS NEXT SATURDAY...BEHIND A
STRONGER FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME...
BEFORE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SEEN IN THE AREA.
REGARDING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY STORM SYSTEM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
STILL STRUGGLING WITH CONSISTENCY SO WILL CONTINUE TO JUST GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT THAT THESE VALUES WILL GO
UP IN FUTURE FORECASTS ONCE SOME OF THE TIMING AND AREAL DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC SETUP...SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS PROBABLE SOMEWHERE IN/NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  76  60  76 /  10  40  70  60
FSM   56  78  59  74 /   0  20  50  70
MLC   57  77  59  74 /   0  30  60  50
BVO   54  78  57  76 /  10  40  70  60
FYV   50  74  56  70 /   0  20  50  70
BYV   52  76  55  71 /   0  10  40  70
MKO   56  77  59  74 /  10  40  70  60
MIO   55  78  58  74 /  10  20  70  70
F10   56  76  59  74 /  10  40  70  60
HHW   57  76  59  74 /   0  20  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KOUN 191538
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1038 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TODAY. WINDS ARE ALREADY
RUNNING IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST. THESE SPEEDS WILL
CONTINUE...AND OTHER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE
SOMEWHAT OF AN INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS TODAY. MODELS KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH THE FIRST CHANCE OF
RAIN THIS EVENING IN THE FAR WEST.

AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPCTED UNTIL 201200. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY BY MIDDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WHEN MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THROUGH MOST LEVELS. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT
FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, BUT CHANCES FOR FEWER BUT STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF TEXAS. THIS TROUGH, BEING SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED FROM THE
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH, WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND FOR MONDAY ALSO. A WEAK FRONT WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW LATER MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, A
DRYLINE WILL EXIST OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND MAY ENTER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ON THURSDAY THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAT THE
DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VERY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE THURSDAY TO BE THE DAY TO WATCH FOR THE
SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AT THE TIME WILL BRING A TROUGH THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND GIVE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FRONT ON
FRIDAY THAT WILL TAKE THE HEAT OF MID-WEEK BACK TO MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  57  76  61 /   0  10  50  60
HOBART OK         78  57  76  58 /  10  30  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  58  78  61 /  10  20  50  50
GAGE OK           79  56  79  54 /  10  30  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     80  58  77  61 /   0  10  40  60
DURANT OK         77  57  79  62 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 191538
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1038 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TODAY. WINDS ARE ALREADY
RUNNING IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST. THESE SPEEDS WILL
CONTINUE...AND OTHER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE
SOMEWHAT OF AN INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS TODAY. MODELS KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH THE FIRST CHANCE OF
RAIN THIS EVENING IN THE FAR WEST.

AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPCTED UNTIL 201200. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY BY MIDDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WHEN MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THROUGH MOST LEVELS. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT
FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, BUT CHANCES FOR FEWER BUT STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF TEXAS. THIS TROUGH, BEING SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED FROM THE
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH, WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND FOR MONDAY ALSO. A WEAK FRONT WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW LATER MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, A
DRYLINE WILL EXIST OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND MAY ENTER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ON THURSDAY THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAT THE
DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VERY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE THURSDAY TO BE THE DAY TO WATCH FOR THE
SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AT THE TIME WILL BRING A TROUGH THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND GIVE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FRONT ON
FRIDAY THAT WILL TAKE THE HEAT OF MID-WEEK BACK TO MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  57  76  61 /   0  10  50  60
HOBART OK         78  57  76  58 /  10  30  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  58  78  61 /  10  20  50  50
GAGE OK           79  56  79  54 /  10  30  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     80  58  77  61 /   0  10  40  60
DURANT OK         77  57  79  62 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 191122
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
622 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS NE OK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL FULLY MAKE A RETURN TODAY TO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...LEADING TO EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN WERE SEEN YESTERDAY AND A FAIRLY MINOR INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO
LOOK GOOD FOR THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY PERIOD /ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY/ AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK HIGH
WITH THIS ROUND OF STORMS...PRIMARILY DUE TO LIMITED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK. IT COULD BE AS LATE AS NEXT SATURDAY...BEHIND A
STRONGER FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME...
BEFORE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SEEN IN THE AREA.
REGARDING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY STORM SYSTEM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
STILL STRUGGLING WITH CONSISTENCY SO WILL CONTINUE TO JUST GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT THAT THESE VALUES WILL GO
UP IN FUTURE FORECASTS ONCE SOME OF THE TIMING AND AREAL DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC SETUP...SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS PROBABLE SOMEWHERE IN/NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  57  78  62 /   0  10  40  70
FSM   78  56  79  58 /   0  10  20  50
MLC   77  57  77  62 /   0  10  20  60
BVO   76  53  76  60 /   0  10  50  70
FYV   74  50  74  55 /   0  10  20  60
BYV   74  52  75  57 /   0  10  10  50
MKO   77  55  77  60 /   0  10  40  70
MIO   76  55  75  59 /   0  10  30  60
F10   76  56  76  61 /   0  10  30  70
HHW   77  56  77  61 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KOUN 191055
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
555 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPCTED UNTIL 201200. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY BY MIDDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WHEN MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THROUGH MOST LEVELS. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT
FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, BUT CHANCES FOR FEWER BUT STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF TEXAS. THIS TROUGH, BEING SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED FROM THE
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH, WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND FOR MONDAY ALSO. A WEAK FRONT WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW LATER MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, A
DRYLINE WILL EXIST OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND MAY ENTER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ON THURSDAY THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAT THE
DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VERY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE THURSDAY TO BE THE DAY TO WATCH FOR THE
SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AT THE TIME WILL BRING A TROUGH THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND GIVE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FRONT ON
FRIDAY THAT WILL TAKE THE HEAT OF MID-WEEK BACK TO MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  57  76  61 /   0  10  40  50
HOBART OK         78  57  76  58 /   0  20  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  58  78  61 /   0  20  40  40
GAGE OK           79  56  79  54 /  10  20  50  40
PONCA CITY OK     80  58  77  61 /   0  10  50  50
DURANT OK         77  57  79  62 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 190927
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
427 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WHEN MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THROUGH MOST LEVELS. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT
FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, BUT CHANCES FOR FEWER BUT STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF TEXAS. THIS TROUGH, BEING SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED FROM THE
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH, WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND FOR MONDAY ALSO. A WEAK FRONT WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW LATER MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, A
DRYLINE WILL EXIST OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND MAY ENTER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ON THURSDAY THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAT THE
DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VERY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE THURSDAY TO BE THE DAY TO WATCH FOR THE
SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AT THE TIME WILL BRING A TROUGH THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND GIVE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FRONT ON
FRIDAY THAT WILL TAKE THE HEAT OF MID-WEEK BACK TO MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  57  76  61 /   0  10  40  50
HOBART OK         78  57  76  58 /   0  20  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  58  78  61 /   0  20  40  40
GAGE OK           79  56  79  54 /  10  20  50  40
PONCA CITY OK     80  58  77  61 /   0  10  50  50
DURANT OK         77  57  79  62 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 190927
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
427 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WHEN MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THROUGH MOST LEVELS. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT
FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, BUT CHANCES FOR FEWER BUT STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF TEXAS. THIS TROUGH, BEING SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED FROM THE
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH, WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND FOR MONDAY ALSO. A WEAK FRONT WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW LATER MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, A
DRYLINE WILL EXIST OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND MAY ENTER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ON THURSDAY THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAT THE
DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VERY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE THURSDAY TO BE THE DAY TO WATCH FOR THE
SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AT THE TIME WILL BRING A TROUGH THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND GIVE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FRONT ON
FRIDAY THAT WILL TAKE THE HEAT OF MID-WEEK BACK TO MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  57  76  61 /   0  10  40  50
HOBART OK         78  57  76  58 /   0  20  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  58  78  61 /   0  20  40  40
GAGE OK           79  56  79  54 /  10  20  50  40
PONCA CITY OK     80  58  77  61 /   0  10  50  50
DURANT OK         77  57  79  62 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 190927
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
427 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WHEN MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THROUGH MOST LEVELS. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT
FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, BUT CHANCES FOR FEWER BUT STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF TEXAS. THIS TROUGH, BEING SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED FROM THE
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH, WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND FOR MONDAY ALSO. A WEAK FRONT WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW LATER MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, A
DRYLINE WILL EXIST OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND MAY ENTER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ON THURSDAY THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAT THE
DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VERY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE THURSDAY TO BE THE DAY TO WATCH FOR THE
SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AT THE TIME WILL BRING A TROUGH THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND GIVE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FRONT ON
FRIDAY THAT WILL TAKE THE HEAT OF MID-WEEK BACK TO MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  57  76  61 /   0  10  40  50
HOBART OK         78  57  76  58 /   0  20  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  58  78  61 /   0  20  40  40
GAGE OK           79  56  79  54 /  10  20  50  40
PONCA CITY OK     80  58  77  61 /   0  10  50  50
DURANT OK         77  57  79  62 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 190927
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
427 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WHEN MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THROUGH MOST LEVELS. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT
FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, BUT CHANCES FOR FEWER BUT STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF TEXAS. THIS TROUGH, BEING SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED FROM THE
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH, WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND FOR MONDAY ALSO. A WEAK FRONT WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW LATER MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, A
DRYLINE WILL EXIST OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND MAY ENTER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ON THURSDAY THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAT THE
DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VERY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE THURSDAY TO BE THE DAY TO WATCH FOR THE
SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AT THE TIME WILL BRING A TROUGH THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND GIVE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FRONT ON
FRIDAY THAT WILL TAKE THE HEAT OF MID-WEEK BACK TO MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  57  76  61 /   0  10  40  50
HOBART OK         78  57  76  58 /   0  20  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  58  78  61 /   0  20  40  40
GAGE OK           79  56  79  54 /  10  20  50  40
PONCA CITY OK     80  58  77  61 /   0  10  50  50
DURANT OK         77  57  79  62 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09




000
FXUS64 KTSA 190759
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
259 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL FULLY MAKE A RETURN TODAY TO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...LEADING TO EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN WERE SEEN YESTERDAY AND A FAIRLY MINOR INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO
LOOK GOOD FOR THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY PERIOD /ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY/ AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK HIGH
WITH THIS ROUND OF STORMS...PRIMARILY DUE TO LIMITED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK. IT COULD BE AS LATE AS NEXT SATURDAY...BEHIND A
STRONGER FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME...
BEFORE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SEEN IN THE AREA.
REGARDING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY STORM SYSTEM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
STILL STRUGGLING WITH CONSISTENCY SO WILL CONTINUE TO JUST GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT THAT THESE VALUES WILL GO
UP IN FUTURE FORECASTS ONCE SOME OF THE TIMING AND AREAL DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC SETUP...SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS PROBABLE SOMEWHERE IN/NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  57  78  62 /   0  10  40  70
FSM   78  56  79  58 /   0  10  20  50
MLC   77  57  77  62 /   0  10  20  60
BVO   76  53  76  60 /   0  10  50  70
FYV   74  50  74  55 /   0  10  20  60
BYV   74  52  75  57 /   0  10  10  50
MKO   77  55  77  60 /   0  10  40  70
MIO   76  55  75  59 /   0  10  30  60
F10   76  56  76  61 /   0  10  30  70
HHW   77  56  77  61 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 190426
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1126 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
OTHER THAN SOME INSIGNIFICANT TWEAKS...THE 00Z FORECAST WAS LEFT
IN TACT. THE LOW LVLS WILL BE TOO DRY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST DATA
NEAR THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO SUPPORT FOG TONIGHT. THE RIDGE
SLIDES EAST ON SATURDAY...AND SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OK...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE. SCT CIRRUS WILL STREAM BY THRU THE PERIOD...IE VFR PREVAILS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 851 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE BEEN COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WERE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN KANSAS AND
THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD CONTINUE PUSH TO THE EAST OVER THE CWA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HELP LOW TEMPS
BY SATURDAY MORNING TO BE A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED TO THIS
MORNINGS LOWS. EVENING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND
TWEAK OVERNIGHT LOWS. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST CONFIGURATION
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  76  57  77 /   0   0  10  50
FSM   50  75  56  77 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   51  76  57  77 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   46  78  54  78 /   0   0  10  50
FYV   42  72  50  74 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   46  73  51  74 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   50  76  55  77 /   0   0  10  40
MIO   48  78  55  76 /   0   0  10  30
F10   51  76  57  77 /   0   0  10  40
HHW   51  76  56  77 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KOUN 190346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AFTER 01Z.

MBS

&&


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...
CLOUDS COMING IN THICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THIS COULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. HOWEVER IF
CLOUDS THIN AND/OR CLEAR TEMPS COULD STILL DROP SO WILL KEEP
CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW
CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MAKING FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND HAIL AND WIND ARE THE ONLY
EXPECTED HAZARDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH
WILL INDUCE VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE
DANGER WILL ALSO BECOME HEIGHTENED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA. WHILE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME SEVERE THREAT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF TIMING/LOCATION
AND SUFFICIENT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU UNTIL
MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  77  58  79 /   0   0  20  40
HOBART OK         52  77  59  79 /   0   0  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  79  60  81 /   0   0  20  40
GAGE OK           53  78  58  80 /   0  10  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     50  79  57  78 /   0   0  10  40
DURANT OK         50  76  56  78 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 190346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AFTER 01Z.

MBS

&&


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...
CLOUDS COMING IN THICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THIS COULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. HOWEVER IF
CLOUDS THIN AND/OR CLEAR TEMPS COULD STILL DROP SO WILL KEEP
CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW
CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MAKING FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND HAIL AND WIND ARE THE ONLY
EXPECTED HAZARDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH
WILL INDUCE VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE
DANGER WILL ALSO BECOME HEIGHTENED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA. WHILE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME SEVERE THREAT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF TIMING/LOCATION
AND SUFFICIENT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU UNTIL
MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  77  58  79 /   0   0  20  40
HOBART OK         52  77  59  79 /   0   0  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  79  60  81 /   0   0  20  40
GAGE OK           53  78  58  80 /   0  10  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     50  79  57  78 /   0   0  10  40
DURANT OK         50  76  56  78 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 190235 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
935 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS COMING IN THICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THIS COULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. HOWEVER IF
CLOUDS THIN AND/OR CLEAR TEMPS COULD STILL DROP SO WILL KEEP
CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW
CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MAKING FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND HAIL AND WIND ARE THE ONLY
EXPECTED HAZARDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH
WILL INDUCE VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE
DANGER WILL ALSO BECOME HEIGHTENED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA. WHILE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME SEVERE THREAT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF TIMING/LOCATION
AND SUFFICIENT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU UNTIL
MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  77  58  79 /   0   0  20  40
HOBART OK         52  77  59  79 /   0   0  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  79  60  81 /   0   0  20  40
GAGE OK           53  78  58  80 /   0  10  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     50  79  57  78 /   0   0  10  40
DURANT OK         50  76  56  78 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 190235 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
935 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS COMING IN THICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THIS COULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. HOWEVER IF
CLOUDS THIN AND/OR CLEAR TEMPS COULD STILL DROP SO WILL KEEP
CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW
CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MAKING FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND HAIL AND WIND ARE THE ONLY
EXPECTED HAZARDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH
WILL INDUCE VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE
DANGER WILL ALSO BECOME HEIGHTENED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA. WHILE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME SEVERE THREAT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF TIMING/LOCATION
AND SUFFICIENT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU UNTIL
MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  77  58  79 /   0   0  20  40
HOBART OK         52  77  59  79 /   0   0  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  79  60  81 /   0   0  20  40
GAGE OK           53  78  58  80 /   0  10  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     50  79  57  78 /   0   0  10  40
DURANT OK         50  76  56  78 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 190235 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
935 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS COMING IN THICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THIS COULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. HOWEVER IF
CLOUDS THIN AND/OR CLEAR TEMPS COULD STILL DROP SO WILL KEEP
CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW
CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MAKING FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND HAIL AND WIND ARE THE ONLY
EXPECTED HAZARDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH
WILL INDUCE VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE
DANGER WILL ALSO BECOME HEIGHTENED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA. WHILE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME SEVERE THREAT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF TIMING/LOCATION
AND SUFFICIENT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU UNTIL
MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  77  58  79 /   0   0  20  40
HOBART OK         52  77  59  79 /   0   0  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  79  60  81 /   0   0  20  40
GAGE OK           53  78  58  80 /   0  10  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     50  79  57  78 /   0   0  10  40
DURANT OK         50  76  56  78 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 190235 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
935 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS COMING IN THICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THIS COULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. HOWEVER IF
CLOUDS THIN AND/OR CLEAR TEMPS COULD STILL DROP SO WILL KEEP
CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW
CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MAKING FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND HAIL AND WIND ARE THE ONLY
EXPECTED HAZARDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH
WILL INDUCE VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE
DANGER WILL ALSO BECOME HEIGHTENED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA. WHILE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME SEVERE THREAT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF TIMING/LOCATION
AND SUFFICIENT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU UNTIL
MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  77  58  79 /   0   0  20  40
HOBART OK         52  77  59  79 /   0   0  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  79  60  81 /   0   0  20  40
GAGE OK           53  78  58  80 /   0  10  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     50  79  57  78 /   0   0  10  40
DURANT OK         50  76  56  78 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 190151
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
851 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE BEEN COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WERE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN KANSAS AND
THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD CONTINUE PUSH TO THE EAST OVER THE CWA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HELP LOW TEMPS
BY SATURDAY MORNING TO BE A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED TO THIS
MORNINGS LOWS. EVENING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND
TWEAK OVERNIGHT LOWS. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST CONFIGURATION
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  76  57  77 /   0   0  10  50
FSM   50  75  56  77 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   51  76  57  77 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   46  78  54  78 /   0   0  10  50
FYV   42  72  50  74 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   46  73  51  74 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   50  76  55  77 /   0   0  10  40
MIO   48  78  55  76 /   0   0  10  30
F10   51  76  57  77 /   0   0  10  40
HHW   51  76  56  77 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20






000
FXUS64 KOUN 182323
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
623 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MAKING FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND HAIL AND WIND ARE THE ONLY
EXPECTED HAZARDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH
WILL INDUCE VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE
DANGER WILL ALSO BECOME HEIGHTENED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA. WHILE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME SEVERE THREAT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF TIMING/LOCATION
AND SUFFICIENT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU UNTIL
MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 182323
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
623 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MAKING FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND HAIL AND WIND ARE THE ONLY
EXPECTED HAZARDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH
WILL INDUCE VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE
DANGER WILL ALSO BECOME HEIGHTENED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA. WHILE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME SEVERE THREAT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF TIMING/LOCATION
AND SUFFICIENT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU UNTIL
MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 182311
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
611 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS. DATA FROM VARIOUS MODELS INDICATES THE LOW LVLS WILL
BE TOO DRY FOR FOG TONIGHT...AND THUS HAVE REMOVED MENTION. THE
RIDGE SLIDES EAST ON SATURDAY...WITH SOUTH WINDS RETURNING TO
ERN OK BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL GUST 15-20KTS AT THE NE OK SITES.
OVERALL A QUIET FORECAST FOR AVIATION CONCERNS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NICE SPRING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH MILD CONDITIONS...LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN. FIRE DANGER
THREAT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A DRY AIR-MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE.

INITIAL UPPER WAVE/JET STREAK WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A
FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SURFACE BASED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
EXPECT MAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. COULD STILL SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTH TEXAS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN BY MID WEEK
WITH WARM/BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND PROVIDE AT LEAST A LIMITED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  76  57  77 /   0   0  10  50
FSM   50  75  56  77 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   51  76  57  77 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   46  78  54  78 /   0   0  10  50
FYV   43  72  50  74 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   46  73  51  74 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   50  76  55  77 /   0   0  10  40
MIO   48  78  55  76 /   0   0  10  30
F10   51  76  57  77 /   0   0  10  40
HHW   51  76  56  77 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KOUN 182010
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MAKING FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND HAIL AND WIND ARE THE ONLY
EXPECTED HAZARDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH
WILL INDUCE VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE
DANGER WILL ALSO BECOME HEIGHTENED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA. WHILE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME SEVERE THREAT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF TIMING/LOCATION
AND SUFFICIENT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU UNTIL
MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  77  58  79 /   0   0  20  40
HOBART OK         53  77  59  79 /   0   0  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  79  60  81 /   0   0  20  40
GAGE OK           53  78  58  80 /   0  10  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     50  79  57  78 /   0   0  10  40
DURANT OK         50  76  56  78 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/AUSTIN



000
FXUS64 KTSA 182003
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
303 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NICE SPRING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH MILD CONDITIONS...LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN. FIRE DANGER
THREAT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A DRY AIR-MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE.

INITIAL UPPER WAVE/JET STREAK WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A
FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SURFACE BASED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
EXPECT MAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. COULD STILL SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTH TEXAS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN BY MID WEEK
WITH WARM/BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND PROVIDE AT LEAST A LIMITED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED INTO NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  76  57  77 /   0   0  10  50
FSM   50  75  56  77 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   51  76  57  77 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   46  78  54  78 /   0   0  10  50
FYV   43  72  50  74 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   46  73  51  74 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   50  76  55  77 /   0   0  10  40
MIO   48  78  55  76 /   0   0  10  30
F10   51  76  57  77 /   0   0  10  40
HHW   51  76  56  77 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KOUN 181659
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
MOST OF THE STRATUS DECK HAS CLEARED OUT...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE RETURNING TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. AN AREA OF CLOUDS
REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...BUT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH SLOWLY WITH TIME...WHILE PARTIAL
CLOUD COVER SPREADS NORTH.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND
AREAS OF MVFR FOG IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND WILL TURN TO SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND
THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT MONDAY FOLLOWS THE
TROUGH AND BRINGS DRIER AIR. SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE
MID-WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
AND MORE LIKELY THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO OKLAHOMA.
THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  78  59  77 /   0   0  20  40
HOBART OK         51  78  57  78 /   0  10  30  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  79  59  82 /   0  10  30  40
GAGE OK           52  78  56  79 /   0  10  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     52  80  60  78 /   0   0  20  50
DURANT OK         52  78  58  78 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/23/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 181659
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
MOST OF THE STRATUS DECK HAS CLEARED OUT...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE RETURNING TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. AN AREA OF CLOUDS
REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...BUT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH SLOWLY WITH TIME...WHILE PARTIAL
CLOUD COVER SPREADS NORTH.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND
AREAS OF MVFR FOG IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND WILL TURN TO SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND
THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT MONDAY FOLLOWS THE
TROUGH AND BRINGS DRIER AIR. SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE
MID-WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
AND MORE LIKELY THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO OKLAHOMA.
THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  78  59  77 /   0   0  20  40
HOBART OK         51  78  57  78 /   0  10  30  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  79  59  82 /   0  10  30  40
GAGE OK           52  78  56  79 /   0  10  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     52  80  60  78 /   0   0  20  50
DURANT OK         52  78  58  78 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/23/14



000
FXUS64 KOUN 181530
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1030 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE RETURNING TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. AN AREA OF CLOUDS
REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...BUT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH SLOWLY WITH TIME...WHILE PARTIAL
CLOUD COVER SPREADS NORTH.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND
AREAS OF MVFR FOG IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKALHOMA. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND WILL TURN TO SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND
THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT MONDAY FOLLOWS THE
TROUGH AND BRINGS DRIER AIR. SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE
MID-WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
AND MORE LIKELY THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO OKLAHOMA.
THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  53  78  59 /   0   0   0  20
HOBART OK         70  51  78  57 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  53  79  59 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           70  52  78  56 /   0   0  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     73  52  80  60 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         74  52  78  58 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 181530
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1030 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE RETURNING TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. AN AREA OF CLOUDS
REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...BUT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH SLOWLY WITH TIME...WHILE PARTIAL
CLOUD COVER SPREADS NORTH.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND
AREAS OF MVFR FOG IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKALHOMA. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND WILL TURN TO SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND
THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT MONDAY FOLLOWS THE
TROUGH AND BRINGS DRIER AIR. SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE
MID-WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
AND MORE LIKELY THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO OKLAHOMA.
THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  53  78  59 /   0   0   0  20
HOBART OK         70  51  78  57 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  53  79  59 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           70  52  78  56 /   0   0  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     73  52  80  60 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         74  52  78  58 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/84




000
FXUS64 KTSA 181519
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1019 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MINOR TEMP DEWPOINT SKY CHANGES FOR UPDATED FORECAST.
A SURGE IN `SPRING FEVER` EXPECTED.               GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG...WITH VSBYS AROUND 3-5SM...ARE
EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 15Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WITH LOGHT WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING IS STARTING OFF ON A CHILLY NOTE...BUT A LATE RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW...SIGNALLING THE
BEGINNING OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REGION THAT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE
SPRING GREENUP IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER TOMORROW IN ANY AREAS WITH STILL CURED
FUELS...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH STORM SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. DESPITE THIS...THERE
REALLY ARE NOT ANY SLAM DUNK DAYS FOR ANY ONE LOCATION TO RECEIVE
ANY MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL...BUT OVERALL...IT APPEARS THAT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE NEXT WEEK
OR SO. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WOULD BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER THIS WEEKEND. INSTABILITY IS
DEFINITELY SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT LACKING...LIMITING ANY
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE HIGHER TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITE LEAVE DETAILS ON THE POTENTIAL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  51  79  58 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   74  52  78  56 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   73  52  77  57 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   73  46  79  55 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   71  45  74  51 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   70  47  75  53 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   74  51  77  56 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   72  49  78  55 /   0   0   0  10
F10   73  52  77  57 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   75  52  77  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....12






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