[top]
000
FXUS64 KOUN 181925
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
225 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
STAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR A VERY BUSY FEW DAYS
WRT SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. LARGE
SCALE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
FOR TODAY... CAPPING INVERSION HAS HELD THINGS IN CHECK... BUT
MIDDAY SOUNDING ACROSS THE AREA SHOW ONLY MINIMAL CAP STILL
REMAINING. EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELDS... SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY WITH THE
MAIN SFC BOUNDARIES RESIDING FARTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN THE
MAIN BODY OF THE STATE WITH AFTN STORMS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND MORE LIKELY AFFECTING CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA. AGAIN INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS WILL BE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR HIGH END SEVERE STORMS.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SFC
BOUNDARIES DOWN AND KEEP MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN
THE RISK ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THE PARTICULARS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DEPENDENT ON
WHAT HAPPENS THE DAY/NIGHT BEFORE.
OTHERWISE VERY WARM/HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THE SFC FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA WITH
SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 90 66 87 / 30 30 50 50
HOBART OK 69 95 63 94 / 30 20 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 98 67 97 / 30 20 20 20
GAGE OK 61 88 56 84 / 30 20 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 70 89 64 84 / 30 50 60 50
DURANT OK 69 88 71 88 / 20 20 30 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/30
[top]
000
FXUS64 KTSA 181738
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING MVFR ACROSS NE OK INTO WESTERN AR ALIGN WITH THE LIFTING
WARM FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MID AFTERNOON
WITH A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS AS THE WARM FRONT
CONTINUES NORTHWARD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE A RUN AT EASTERN OK
LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT
SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KFSM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD
WITHIN THE ONGOING WARM MOIST ADVECTION REGIME. OVERALL THE
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED SHALLOW...AND LIKELY WILL REMAIN SO GIVEN
THE STRONG CAP NOTED ON 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. UPDATE WILL ADJUST
FOR MORE CLOUD COVER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND INCLUDE ISOLATED
TSRA FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN OK
LATER THIS EVENING. THIS SCENARIO IS COVERED WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED AT THIS TIME FOR EVENING
STORM CHANCES.
THE LATEST DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE LIKELIHOOD FOR VOLATILE
SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THE MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED.
LATER DISCUSSIONS WILL ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 88 71 88 67 / 20 30 20 60
FSM 89 69 89 69 / 20 10 10 30
MLC 88 70 87 70 / 20 20 20 40
BVO 89 70 89 66 / 20 30 50 70
FYV 85 66 86 66 / 20 10 10 40
BYV 86 66 86 67 / 20 10 10 60
MKO 88 69 88 68 / 20 20 20 40
MIO 86 70 86 67 / 20 20 20 70
F10 87 70 87 68 / 20 30 20 40
HHW 87 68 87 69 / 10 20 10 30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...07
000
FXUS64 KOUN 181712
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG DISSIPATING QUICKLY AT MIDDAY WITH
STRONG... GUSTY S/SE SFC WINDS DEVELOPING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF TSRA
LATE AFTN INTO EVENING HOURS AT MOST SITES. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
.DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY 1 TO 4 MILES UNTIL LATE
MORNING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IFR CEILINGS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND A FEW COULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY LATE
EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 91 68 90 68 / 20 20 30 40
HOBART OK 98 66 97 67 / 20 20 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 100 68 98 70 / 20 20 20 20
GAGE OK 95 60 92 59 / 20 20 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 88 70 89 67 / 20 30 50 60
DURANT OK 92 68 90 69 / 10 20 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/09
000
FXUS64 KTSA 181620
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1120 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD
WITHIN THE ONGOING WARM MOIST ADVECTION REGIME. OVERALL THE
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED SHALLOW...AND LIKELY WILL REMAIN SO GIVEN
THE STRONG CAP NOTED ON 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. UPDATE WILL ADJUST
FOR MORE CLOUD COVER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND INCLUDE ISOLATED
TSRA FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN OK
LATER THIS EVENING. THIS SCENARIO IS COVERED WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED AT THIS TIME FOR EVENING
STORM CHANCES.
THE LATEST DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE LIKELIHOOD FOR VOLATILE
SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THE MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED.
LATER DISCUSSIONS WILL ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 88 71 88 67 / 20 30 20 60
FSM 89 69 89 69 / 20 10 10 30
MLC 88 70 87 70 / 20 20 20 40
BVO 89 70 89 66 / 20 30 50 70
FYV 85 66 86 66 / 20 10 10 40
BYV 86 66 86 67 / 20 10 10 60
MKO 88 69 88 68 / 20 20 20 40
MIO 86 70 86 67 / 20 20 20 70
F10 87 70 87 68 / 20 30 20 40
HHW 87 68 87 69 / 10 20 10 30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
000
FXUS64 KTSA 181143
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
643 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO VFR BETWEEN 15Z-18Z.
GENERALLY VFR AFTERWARD UNTIL ABOUT 06Z SUNDAY WHEN VISIBILITY
DROPPING BELOW 6 MILES IN FOG. RISK OF THUNDER...PROB30...TAF
SITE KBVO AFTER 01Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. RECENT RAINFALL WILL HELP HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT IN CHECK WITH MOST PLACES REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.
STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM NEBRASKA
DOWN INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WITH MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP OUT WEST
WILL MAKE A RUN AT EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY
DISSIPATE AND A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORM
THAT CAN MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST.
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT(S) FOR OUR AREA WILL BE
LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNDER THE GUN SUNDAY...BUT BY MONDAY IT BECOMES TOUGHER TO FAVOR
ANY PARTICULAR AREA AS PREVIOUS CONVECTION WILL PLAY SOME ROLE IN
DETERMINING THAT. STORMS WILL ALSO BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS SO
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUING...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AFTER A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY...STORM CHANCES
WILL RETURN THURSDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH INTO
THE AREA. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE BY THAT TIME WILL LIMIT THE
OVERALL STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...BUT WILL ALSO RESULT IN
SLOWER MOVING STORMS POSSIBLY RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 88 71 88 67 / 10 30 20 60
FSM 89 69 89 69 / 10 10 10 30
MLC 88 70 87 70 / 10 20 20 40
BVO 89 70 89 66 / 10 30 50 70
FYV 85 66 86 66 / 10 10 10 40
BYV 86 66 86 67 / 10 10 10 60
MKO 88 69 88 68 / 10 20 20 40
MIO 86 70 86 67 / 10 20 20 70
F10 87 70 87 68 / 10 30 20 40
HHW 87 68 87 69 / 10 20 10 30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...21
000
FXUS64 KOUN 181043
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
543 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY 1 TO 4 MILES UNTIL LATE
MORNING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IFR CEILINGS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND A FEW COULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY LATE
EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 91 68 90 68 / 20 20 30 40
HOBART OK 98 66 97 67 / 20 20 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 100 68 98 70 / 20 20 20 20
GAGE OK 95 60 92 59 / 20 20 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 88 70 89 67 / 20 30 50 60
DURANT OK 92 68 90 69 / 10 20 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/09
000
FXUS64 KTSA 180916
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
416 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. RECENT RAINFALL WILL HELP HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT IN CHECK WITH MOST PLACES REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.
STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM NEBRASKA
DOWN INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WITH MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP OUT WEST
WILL MAKE A RUN AT EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY
DISSIPATE AND A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORM
THAT CAN MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST.
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT(S) FOR OUR AREA WILL BE
LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNDER THE GUN SUNDAY...BUT BY MONDAY IT BECOMES TOUGHER TO FAVOR
ANY PARTICULAR AREA AS PREVIOUS CONVECTION WILL PLAY SOME ROLE IN
DETERMINING THAT. STORMS WILL ALSO BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS SO
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUING...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AFTER A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY...STORM CHANCES
WILL RETURN THURSDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH INTO
THE AREA. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE BY THAT TIME WILL LIMIT THE
OVERALL STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...BUT WILL ALSO RESULT IN
SLOWER MOVING STORMS POSSIBLY RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 88 71 88 67 / 10 30 20 60
FSM 89 69 89 69 / 10 10 10 30
MLC 88 70 87 70 / 10 20 20 40
BVO 89 70 89 66 / 10 30 50 70
FYV 85 66 86 66 / 10 10 10 40
BYV 86 66 86 67 / 10 10 10 60
MKO 88 69 88 68 / 10 20 20 40
MIO 86 70 86 67 / 10 20 20 70
F10 87 70 87 68 / 10 30 20 40
HHW 87 68 87 69 / 10 20 10 30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....05
PLATE
000
FXUS64 KOUN 180716
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
216 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY IS THE FIRST OF AT LEAST 3 DAYS OF EXPECTED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE VERY MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS WILL PERSIST AND
WAIT FOR THE APPROACH OF A DRYLINE TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH ALONG THE DRYLINE. AT
LEAST IN A FEW AREAS, THE CAP SHOULD BE OVERCOME RESULTING IN
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
EVENING A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP INCREASE THE TORNADO THREAT IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE LATER TODAY
WHEN THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH. MID-LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTING SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE EVEN STRONGER SUNDAY. DRYLINE MIXING IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR EARLIER AND A FRONT WILL BE PRESSING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT, A TRIPLE POINT IN NORTHWEST OR WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST WITH THE DRYLINE. BY THE TIME OF
THUNDERSTORM RE-INITIATION, THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
MOSTLY EXCLUDE THE WESTERN QUARTER OF OKLAHOMA, BUT CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL BE IN AREAS OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
AND HIGH SHEAR. TORNADOES AND EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN THE
EVENING WILL INCREASE THE TORNADO THREAT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW AND STILL BE DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA
MONDAY, BUT THE LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
MORE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY WHEN SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SEVERE WEATHER. EVEN A GOOD CHANCE
REMAINS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK A
CHANCE FOR RAIN REMAINS WITH EASTERLY FLOW IN THE MODERATELY MOIST
AIRMASS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 91 68 90 68 / 20 20 30 40
HOBART OK 98 66 97 67 / 20 20 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 100 68 98 70 / 20 20 20 20
GAGE OK 95 60 92 59 / 20 20 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 88 70 89 67 / 20 30 50 60
DURANT OK 92 68 90 69 / 10 20 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/09
000
FXUS64 KTSA 180448
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AGAIN TONIGHT
AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...DO NOT
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE AS BAD AS THOSE THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE ADDED A PROB30
FOR THUNDER AT MOST OF THE E OK TAF SITES AFTER 03Z AS THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP TO OUR WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAY MOVE
INTO THE REGION BY 06Z SUNDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
MILD/QUIET EVENING UNDERWAY...WITH LINGERING BAND
OF SC ACROSS MUCH OF SE OK. EXPECT PARTIALLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NE OK/NW AR THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WITH
WET GROUND CONDITIONS COULD SEE MORE FOG DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DON`T THINK WE`LL SEE A REPEAT OF THE
DENSE FOG LIKE LAST NIGHT...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...10
000
FXUS64 KTSA 180232
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
932 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
MILD/QUIET EVENING UNDERWAY...WITH LINGERING BAND
OF SC ACROSS MUCH OF SE OK. EXPECT PARTIALLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NE OK/NW AR THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WITH
WET GROUND CONDITIONS COULD SEE MORE FOG DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DON`T THINK WE`LL SEE A REPEAT OF THE
DENSE FOG LIKE LAST NIGHT...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 70 88 72 88 / 10 10 20 20
FSM 68 89 69 89 / 10 10 10 10
MLC 69 88 71 87 / 10 10 20 20
BVO 67 89 70 91 / 10 10 20 50
FYV 63 85 67 84 / 10 10 10 10
BYV 64 86 67 87 / 10 10 10 10
MKO 68 88 69 88 / 10 10 20 20
MIO 64 86 71 88 / 10 10 20 20
F10 68 87 71 87 / 10 10 20 20
HHW 69 87 69 87 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....18
000
FXUS64 KOUN 172327
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION... BAND OF CLOUDS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM NW TO SE
OK PERSISTS EARLY THIS EVENING BUT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM
THE SOUTH. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND SE UPSLOPE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN
LATER TONIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MORE RAPIDLY ON SATURDAY THAN
TODAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SLY AND INCREASES. TSTM
ACTIVITY IN TX EXPECTED TO REMAIN S OF KSPS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
STORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
.DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT-TERM... WILL WATCH FOR THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN OR NEAR THE NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES. THERE HAS BEEN A
PERSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE STORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE ARCHER COUNTY AREA THIS AFTERNOON... AND CU FIELD HAS BEEN
INCREASING NW OF BRECKENRIDGE TX AND SOUTH OF COLEMAN TX. WILL
LEAVE THE ISOLATED WORDING AND SUB-20 POPS IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. LATER
TONIGHT IT APPEARS THAT AREAS OF FOG SHOULD REDEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH WE LOOK TO HAVE A HEALTHY CAP IN PLACE
TOMORROW... MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING QPF ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND THE ECMWF BREAKS OUT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THROUGHOUT WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH BUT KEEP AT LEAST 20S
THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. STORM CHANCES INCREASE
SUNDAY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES CLOSER. WE THEN RELOAD FOR ANOTHER
ROUND ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE DEVELOPS IN THE BROAD UPPER TROF
TO THE WEST AND MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS AND A SURFACE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SOME OF THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY ON EACH OF THESE DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 91 68 90 / 10 20 20 30
HOBART OK 68 98 66 97 / 10 20 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 100 68 98 / 10 20 20 20
GAGE OK 65 95 60 92 / 10 20 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 67 88 70 89 / 10 20 30 50
DURANT OK 69 92 68 90 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KTSA 172324
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
624 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP. MAY NOT BE AS BAD AS LAST NIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING THOUGH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONTAL ZONE EVIDENT IN SFC DEW POINTS AND MARKED BY SWATH OF
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS ESSENTIALLY BISECTING OK FROM SE-NW. LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SW U.S. WILL CAUSE THE BOUNDARY
TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING. WITH WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN 850-700MB LAYER THE CHANCE OF AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO EARLY SAT MORNING ARE NON-ZERO...HOWEVER STRONGER CAP ABOVE
THIS LAYER MAKES CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. VERY WARM AND STRONGLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR WILL SPREAD
NORTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S AND PERHAPS LOWER 90S WEST OF TULSA. DRY LINE WILL BE PRESENT
NEAR OK/TX BORDER SAT AFTERNOON AND WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO TH NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH
BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING...AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE
FARTHER SOUTH COULD EVENTUALLY MAKE A RUN TOWARD EASTERN OK SAT
NIGHT.
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN WEEKS...A STRONG CROSS-PACIFIC JET WILL SET
UP AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THIS SET UP
SHOULD FAVOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. AGAIN...STRONG CAPPING WILL LIMIT ANY
DEVELOPMENT MOST OF THE DAY...BUT MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WILL BE
PRESENT FARTHER SOUTH WITH DRY LINE PUSHING CLOSER TO I-35
CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ALL MODES OF SEVERE POSSIBLE. STORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT EASTERN OK BY EVENING...AND MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWS A SIGNAL OF STORMS GROWING INTO AN MCS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY POSITIONS DO NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY MONDAY
AND ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COMPLICATING FACTOR OF
COURSE WILL BE WHAT IMPACT SUNDAY NIGHT STORMS HAVE...BUT THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN OK.
PARAMETERS AGAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THE FAVORED TIME. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY A CONCERN
BY THIS TIME.
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY. WIND PROFILES STILL
INDICATE SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HOWEVER INSTABILITY MAY
BE IN QUESTION BY THIS TIME...DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FRONT WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
BUT RETURN NORTH LATER IN THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN BY
THIS TIME AND WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED AT
BEST.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...10
000
FXUS64 KTSA 172019
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
319 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONTAL ZONE EVIDENT IN SFC DEW POINTS AND MARKED BY SWATH OF
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS ESSENTIALLY BISECTING OK FROM SE-NW. LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SW U.S. WILL CAUSE THE BOUNDARY
TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING. WITH WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN 850-700MB LAYER THE CHANCE OF AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO EARLY SAT MORNING ARE NON-ZERO...HOWEVER STRONGER CAP ABOVE
THIS LAYER MAKES CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. VERY WARM AND STRONGLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR WILL SPREAD
NORTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S AND PERHAPS LOWER 90S WEST OF TULSA. DRY LINE WILL BE PRESENT
NEAR OK/TX BORDER SAT AFTERNOON AND WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO TH NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH
BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING...AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE
FARTHER SOUTH COULD EVENTUALLY MAKE A RUN TOWARD EASTERN OK SAT
NIGHT.
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN WEEKS...A STRONG CROSS-PACIFIC JET WILL SET
UP AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THIS SET UP
SHOULD FAVOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. AGAIN...STRONG CAPPING WILL LIMIT ANY
DEVELOPMENT MOST OF THE DAY...BUT MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WILL BE
PRESENT FARTHER SOUTH WITH DRY LINE PUSHING CLOSER TO I-35
CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ALL MODES OF SEVERE POSSIBLE. STORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT EASTERN OK BY EVENING...AND MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWS A SIGNAL OF STORMS GROWING INTO AN MCS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY POSITIONS DO NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY MONDAY
AND ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COMPLICATING FACTOR OF
COURSE WILL BE WHAT IMPACT SUNDAY NIGHT STORMS HAVE...BUT THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN OK.
PARAMETERS AGAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THE FAVORED TIME. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY A CONCERN
BY THIS TIME.
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY. WIND PROFILES STILL
INDICATE SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HOWEVER INSTABILITY MAY
BE IN QUESTION BY THIS TIME...DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FRONT WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
BUT RETURN NORTH LATER IN THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN BY
THIS TIME AND WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED AT
BEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 70 88 72 88 / 10 10 20 20
FSM 68 89 69 89 / 10 10 10 10
MLC 69 88 71 87 / 10 10 20 20
BVO 67 89 70 91 / 10 10 20 50
FYV 63 85 67 84 / 10 10 10 10
BYV 64 86 67 87 / 10 10 10 10
MKO 68 88 69 88 / 10 10 20 20
MIO 64 86 71 88 / 10 10 20 20
F10 68 87 71 87 / 10 10 20 20
HHW 69 87 69 87 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....14
000
FXUS64 KOUN 171948
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
248 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT-TERM... WILL WATCH FOR THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN OR NEAR THE NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES. THERE HAS BEEN A
PERSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE STORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE ARCHER COUNTY AREA THIS AFTERNOON... AND CU FIELD HAS BEEN
INCREASING NW OF BRECKENRIDGE TX AND SOUTH OF COLEMAN TX. WILL
LEAVE THE ISOLATED WORDING AND SUB-20 POPS IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. LATER
TONIGHT IT APPEARS THAT AREAS OF FOG SHOULD REDEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH WE LOOK TO HAVE A HEALTHY CAP IN PLACE
TOMORROW... MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING QPF ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND THE ECMWF BREAKS OUT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THROUGHOUT WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH BUT KEEP AT LEAST 20S
THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. STORM CHANCES INCREASE
SUNDAY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES CLOSER. WE THEN RELOAD FOR ANOTHER
ROUND ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE DEVELOPS IN THE BROAD UPPER TROF
TO THE WEST AND MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS AND A SURFACE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SOME OF THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY ON EACH OF THESE DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 91 68 90 / 10 20 20 30
HOBART OK 68 98 66 97 / 10 20 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 100 68 98 / 10 20 20 20
GAGE OK 65 95 60 92 / 10 20 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 67 88 70 89 / 10 20 30 50
DURANT OK 69 92 68 90 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KTSA 171735
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1235 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS SE OK CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO NE OK...PRODUCING MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS. LARGELY FOLLOWED A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH THE CLOUD
BLANKET EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF ADVANCING WARM FRONT.
PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT PRIMARILY OVER WESTERN AR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUES FROM NW OK INTO SW AR...AND
SHOWS NO SIGNS OF DISSIPATING GIVEN ITS FAVORABLE ORIENTATION
NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT LYING JUST SOUTH OF THIS ZONE. DESPITE
THE CLOUD COVER TEMPS HAVE TRACKED NEAR FORECAST VALUES AND WILL
LEAVE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN PLACE. UPDATED FORECAST WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OTHER ELEMENTS ON
TRACK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 83 70 89 72 / 0 10 10 20
FSM 84 69 89 68 / 10 10 10 10
MLC 82 69 87 71 / 0 10 10 20
BVO 83 66 89 70 / 0 10 10 20
FYV 80 63 86 68 / 10 10 10 10
BYV 80 64 87 68 / 10 10 10 10
MKO 83 68 87 70 / 0 10 10 20
MIO 82 66 87 71 / 10 10 10 20
F10 82 69 87 71 / 0 10 10 20
HHW 81 68 87 70 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...07
000
FXUS64 KOUN 171725
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDTIONS ARE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE ERODING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. MANY
AREAS WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT KOKC AND KOUN TODAY. WIDESPREAD
IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
UPDATE...
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FOG
DISSIPATES SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 15Z.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP IN PARTS OF THE FA SO HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS IN AREA WHERE EXPECTED TO HANG ON THE LONGEST. MEANWHILE...
TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY INCREASING IN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...
WITH HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 100 IN PARTS OF OUR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS COUNTIES. THE STRONG SFC HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME THE CAP AND FOR A STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP IN OR NEAR THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING SO HAVE KEPT POPS REALLY LOW
/AROUND 10 PERCENT/ BUT PUT A MENTION OF ISOLATED STORM/S IN THE
WX GRIDS. WILL HAVE UPDATES OUT SOON.
MAXWELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS IN MANY PARTS OF
OKALAHOMA UNTIL LATE MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS WILL
EXIST IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MOST OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SOME
SUN TODAY WHEN TEMPERATURE RISE SUBSTANTIALLY GREATER THAN THEY
DID YESTERDAY. A DRYLINE MAY NUDGE INTO PART OF NORTH TEXAS
SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S THERE. SOME FOG COULD FORM
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT AND MOIST FLOW INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN REACH OF OKLAHOMA. THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS TO
THE EAST AND VERY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING UNTIL THE EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING NEARBY, FLOW WILL BE WEAK AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONLY
MARGINALLY SEVERE BUT RATHER SHORT-LIVED. THE STORY CHANGES SUNDAY
WHEN OKLAHOMA COMES UNDER STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WHILE A STRONG
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ASSOCIATE
TROUGH MAY DRIVE A FRONT INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE MIXING BRINGS THE DRYLINE INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE MOIST SECTOR WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME BECOMING SEVERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA APART FROM THE ROW OF COUNTIES NEAREST THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER WAVE ON MONDAY WILL INTERACTWITH
THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND DRYLINE TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER
THAN ON SUNDAY AND THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LARGE. CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, MORE THAN WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE, WILL BE MORE
AFFECTED. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH. AFTER A COOLER AND CALMER TUESDAY, THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY RETURN NORTH WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES AGAIN AT MID-WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 80 68 91 68 / 10 10 10 20
HOBART OK 86 68 98 66 / 10 10 20 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 94 70 99 68 / 10 10 20 20
GAGE OK 86 65 95 60 / 10 10 30 20
PONCA CITY OK 84 67 88 70 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 83 69 92 68 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KTSA 171624
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1124 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUES FROM NW OK INTO SW AR...AND
SHOWS NO SIGNS OF DISSIPATING GIVEN ITS FAVORABLE ORIENTATION
NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT LYING JUST SOUTH OF THIS ZONE. DESPITE
THE CLOUD COVER TEMPS HAVE TRACKED NEAR FORECAST VALUES AND WILL
LEAVE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN PLACE. UPDATED FORECAST WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OTHER ELEMENTS ON
TRACK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 83 70 89 72 / 0 10 10 20
FSM 84 69 89 68 / 10 10 10 10
MLC 82 69 87 71 / 0 10 10 20
BVO 83 66 89 70 / 0 10 10 20
FYV 80 63 86 68 / 10 10 10 10
BYV 80 64 87 68 / 10 10 10 10
MKO 83 68 87 70 / 0 10 10 20
MIO 82 66 87 71 / 10 10 10 20
F10 82 69 87 71 / 0 10 10 20
HHW 81 68 87 70 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
000
FXUS64 KOUN 171600 AAA
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FOG
DISSIPATES SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 15Z.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP IN PARTS OF THE FA SO HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS IN AREA WHERE EXPECTED TO HANG ON THE LONGEST. MEANWHILE...
TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY INCREASING IN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...
WITH HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 100 IN PARTS OF OUR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS COUNTIES. THE STRONG SFC HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME THE CAP AND FOR A STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP IN OR NEAR THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING SO HAVE KEPT POPS REALLY LOW
/AROUND 10 PERCENT/ BUT PUT A MENTION OF ISOLATED STORM/S IN THE
WX GRIDS. WILL HAVE UPDATES OUT SOON.
MAXWELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS IN MANY PARTS OF
OKALAHOMA UNTIL LATE MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS WILL
EXIST IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MOST OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SOME
SUN TODAY WHEN TEMPERATURE RISE SUBSTANTIALLY GREATER THAN THEY
DID YESTERDAY. A DRYLINE MAY NUDGE INTO PART OF NORTH TEXAS
SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S THERE. SOME FOG COULD FORM
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT AND MOIST FLOW INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN REACH OF OKLAHOMA. THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS TO
THE EAST AND VERY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING UNTIL THE EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING NEARBY, FLOW WILL BE WEAK AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONLY
MARGINALLY SEVERE BUT RATHER SHORT-LIVED. THE STORY CHANGES SUNDAY
WHEN OKLAHOMA COMES UNDER STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WHILE A STRONG
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ASSOCIATE
TROUGH MAY DRIVE A FRONT INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE MIXING BRINGS THE DRYLINE INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE MOIST SECTOR WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME BECOMING SEVERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA APART FROM THE ROW OF COUNTIES NEAREST THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER WAVE ON MONDAY WILL INTERACTWITH
THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND DRYLINE TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER
THAN ON SUNDAY AND THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LARGE. CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, MORE THAN WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE, WILL BE MORE
AFFECTED. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH. AFTER A COOLER AND CALMER TUESDAY, THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY RETURN NORTH WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES AGAIN AT MID-WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 80 68 91 68 / 10 10 10 20
HOBART OK 86 68 98 66 / 10 10 20 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 94 70 99 68 / 10 10 20 20
GAGE OK 86 65 95 60 / 10 10 30 20
PONCA CITY OK 84 67 88 70 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 83 69 92 68 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/26
000
FXUS64 KTSA 171147
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
647 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOG/STRATUS LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY 15
OR 16Z AS FOG MIXES OUT. VFR BULK OF THE DAY INTO EVENING.
MVFR VISIBILITY/CEILINGS RETURN LATE TONIGHT LIKELY AFTER 06Z.
IFR VISIBILITIES AFTER 06Z AT AR SITES KXNA/KFYV/KFSM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. ONCE
THE FOG AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDINESS BREAKS UP...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE HELP OF SOME SUNSHINE.
RAPID LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER BEING THE RESULT OVER
THE WEEKEND. RECENT RAINFALL AND THE RESULTANT HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND BUT WILL STILL SEE
READINGS APPROACH 90 IN MANY AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST LATE SATURDAY
AND WILL CARRY LOW POPS IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING IN CASE THIS ACTIVITY DRIFTS THIS FAR EAST. A FAIRLY STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION THOUGH ENSURES THAT NOTHING HIGHER THAN A 20%
POP IS WARRANTED.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...LIKELY SEVERE...WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIND PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR SIGNFICANT
TORNADOES WILL EXIST BOTH EVENINGS...BUT APPEARS MOST LIKELY
MONDAY EVENING.
STORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TUESDAY BUT AT LEAST
LOW STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. RIDGING ALOFT MAY KEEP
STORM COVERAGE ON THE LOW SIDE HOWEVER...AND THE SEVERE WEATHER
RISK AT THAT TIME WILL BE LOWER THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE
FOR LATE MAY.
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 83 70 89 72 / 0 10 10 20
FSM 84 69 89 68 / 10 10 10 10
MLC 82 69 87 71 / 0 10 10 20
BVO 83 66 89 70 / 0 10 10 20
FYV 80 63 86 68 / 10 10 10 10
BYV 80 64 87 68 / 10 10 10 10
MKO 83 68 87 70 / 0 10 10 20
MIO 82 66 87 71 / 10 10 10 20
F10 82 69 87 71 / 0 10 10 20
HHW 81 68 87 70 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-
OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...21
000
FXUS64 KOUN 171116
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
616 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS IN MANY PARTS OF
OKALAHOMA UNTIL LATE MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS WILL
EXIST IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MOST OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SOME
SUN TODAY WHEN TEMPERATURE RISE SUBSTANTIALLY GREATER THAN THEY
DID YESTERDAY. A DRYLINE MAY NUDGE INTO PART OF NORTH TEXAS
SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S THERE. SOME FOG COULD FORM
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT AND MOIST FLOW INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN REACH OF OKLAHOMA. THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS TO
THE EAST AND VERY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING UNTIL THE EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING NEARBY, FLOW WILL BE WEAK AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONLY
MARGINALLY SEVERE BUT RATHER SHORT-LIVED. THE STORY CHANGES SUNDAY
WHEN OKLAHOMA COMES UNDER STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WHILE A STRONG
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ASSOCIATE
TROUGH MAY DRIVE A FRONT INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE MIXING BRINGS THE DRYLINE INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE MOIST SECTOR WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME BECOMING SEVERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA APART FROM THE ROW OF COUNTIES NEAREST THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER WAVE ON MONDAY WILL INTERACTWITH
THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND DRYLINE TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER
THAN ON SUNDAY AND THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LARGE. CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, MORE THAN WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE, WILL BE MORE
AFFECTED. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH. AFTER A COOLER AND CALMER TUESDAY, THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY RETURN NORTH WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES AGAIN AT MID-WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 83 68 91 68 / 10 10 10 20
HOBART OK 88 68 98 66 / 10 10 20 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 70 99 68 / 10 10 20 20
GAGE OK 89 65 95 60 / 10 10 30 20
PONCA CITY OK 83 67 88 70 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 82 69 92 68 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ005>008-
010>013-015-017>020-026.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/09/09
000
FXUS64 KTSA 170913
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
413 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. ONCE
THE FOG AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDINESS BREAKS UP...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE HELP OF SOME SUNSHINE.
RAPID LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER BEING THE RESULT OVER
THE WEEKEND. RECENT RAINFALL AND THE RESULTANT HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND BUT WILL STILL SEE
READINGS APPROACH 90 IN MANY AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST LATE SATURDAY
AND WILL CARRY LOW POPS IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING IN CASE THIS ACTIVITY DRIFTS THIS FAR EAST. A FAIRLY STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION THOUGH ENSURES THAT NOTHING HIGHER THAN A 20%
POP IS WARRANTED.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...LIKELY SEVERE...WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIND PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR SIGNFICANT
TORNADOES WILL EXIST BOTH EVENINGS...BUT APPEARS MOST LIKELY
MONDAY EVENING.
STORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TUESDAY BUT AT LEAST
LOW STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. RIDGING ALOFT MAY KEEP
STORM COVERAGE ON THE LOW SIDE HOWEVER...AND THE SEVERE WEATHER
RISK AT THAT TIME WILL BE LOWER THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE
FOR LATE MAY.
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 83 70 89 72 / 0 10 10 20
FSM 84 69 89 68 / 10 10 10 10
MLC 82 69 87 71 / 0 10 10 20
BVO 83 66 89 70 / 0 10 10 20
FYV 80 63 86 68 / 10 10 10 10
BYV 80 64 87 68 / 10 10 10 10
MKO 83 68 87 70 / 0 10 10 20
MIO 82 66 87 71 / 10 10 10 20
F10 82 69 87 71 / 0 10 10 20
HHW 81 68 87 70 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....05
PLATE
000
FXUS64 KOUN 170845
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
345 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SOME
SUN TODAY WHEN TEMPERATURE RISE SUBSTANTIALLY GREATER THAN THEY
DID YESTERDAY. A DRYLINE MAY NUDGE INTO PART OF NORTH TEXAS
SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S THERE. SOME FOG COULD FORM
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT AND MOIST FLOW INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN REACH OF OKLAHOMA. THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS TO
THE EAST AND VERY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING UNTIL THE EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING NEARBY, FLOW WILL BE WEAK AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONLY
MARGINALLY SEVERE BUT RATHER SHORT-LIVED. THE STORY CHANGES SUNDAY
WHEN OKLAHOMA COMES UNDER STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WHILE A STRONG
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ASSOCIATE
TROUGH MAY DRIVE A FRONT INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE MIXING BRINGS THE DRYLINE INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE MOIST SECTOR WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME BECOMING SEVERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA APART FROM THE ROW OF COUNTIES NEAREST THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER WAVE ON MONDAY WILL INTERACTWITH
THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND DRYLINE TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER
THAN ON SUNDAY AND THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LARGE. CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, MORE THAN WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE, WILL BE MORE
AFFECTED. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH. AFTER A COOLER AND CALMER TUESDAY, THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY RETURN NORTH WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES AGAIN AT MID-WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 83 68 91 68 / 10 10 10 20
HOBART OK 88 68 98 66 / 10 10 20 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 70 99 68 / 10 10 20 20
GAGE OK 89 65 95 60 / 10 10 30 20
PONCA CITY OK 83 67 88 70 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 82 69 92 68 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/09
000
FXUS64 KOUN 170636
AFDOUN
DDHHMM
WRKAFD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION... MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PERSISTING. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AT A FEW SITES. LOWER CIGS WILL THEN
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
.UPDATE...
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.
INCREASE SKY COVER OVERNIGHT...AS OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MAKE A RESURGENCE INTO THE AREA. ALSO REMOVED ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS AS NO ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED...THOUGH SMALL TEMP DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL FAVOR PATCHY
FOG...AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND WIND GRIDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PREVAILING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS WAS ON STORMS AND SEVERE WX... POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT...
POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A FEW SPRINKLES LINGERING IN FAR EAST/SE PORTIONS OF FA THIS AFTN
BUT EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
DRYLINE WILL SET UP WELL WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A FEW MODELS
SHOWING AN IMPULSE MOVING NE INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTN. THIS
MAY INITIATE A STORM OR TWO FRIDAY BUT WITH DRYLINE WELL WEST OF THE
AREA AND SOME CAPPING ISSUES WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO STORMS AND SEVERE WX POTENTIAL OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A DRYLINE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OR IN WESTERN PARTS OF FA SATURDAY.
A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE
DRYLINE LATE SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING AFFECTING PARTS OF THE FA. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE FA SUNDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THERE COULD ALSO BE LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE
ALTHOUGH IF THE SHORTWAVE IS EARLIER IN THE DAY SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE WAVE COULD AFFECT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
UNCERTAINTIES... SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL...
STRONG WINDS AND TORNADOES A CONCERN. ON MONDAY... THE TRIPLE POINT
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR OR
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL... STRONG WINDS...
AND TORNADOES A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT INTO SE PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY.
THE SFC MOISTURE WILL NOT GO FAR AWAY AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK
NORTH OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
STORMS... PARTS OF THE FA COULD HIT TRIPLE DIGITS OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF SW OK/WESTERN NORTH TX.
SO TO SUM UP... THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK... WITH SEVERE STORMS... POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT... SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY... AND HOT TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 83 68 91 / 10 10 10 10
HOBART OK 64 88 68 98 / 10 10 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 67 91 70 99 / 10 10 10 20
GAGE OK 62 89 65 95 / 10 10 10 30
PONCA CITY OK 61 83 67 88 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 66 82 69 92 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
84/02
000
FXUS64 KTSA 170441
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1141 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL AREA TAF SITES. HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG BEGIN TO DEVELOP. HAVE GONE MOST PESSIMISTIC
AT THE NW AR TAF SITES WITH DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE.
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AS MOST ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED...ALTHOUGH
STILL COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT IN WRN AR. SKIES HAVE PARTIALLY CLEARED ACROSS
MUCH OF NE OK...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THIS TO FILL BACK
IN OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME FOG LIKELY.
UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...10
000
FXUS64 KOUN 170309
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1009 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.UPDATE...
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.
INCREASE SKY COVER OVERNIGHT...AS OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MAKE A RESURGENCE INTO THE AREA. ALSO REMOVED ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS AS NO ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED...THOUGH SMALL TEMP DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL FAVOR PATCHY
FOG...AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND WIND GRIDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PREVAILING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS WAS ON STORMS AND SEVERE WX... POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT...
POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A FEW SPRINKLES LINGERING IN FAR EAST/SE PORTIONS OF FA THIS AFTN
BUT EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
DRYLINE WILL SET UP WELL WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A FEW MODELS
SHOWING AN IMPULSE MOVING NE INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTN. THIS
MAY INITIATE A STORM OR TWO FRIDAY BUT WITH DRYLINE WELL WEST OF THE
AREA AND SOME CAPPING ISSUES WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO STORMS AND SEVERE WX POTENTIAL OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A DRYLINE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OR IN WESTERN PARTS OF FA SATURDAY.
A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE
DRYLINE LATE SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING AFFECTING PARTS OF THE FA. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE FA SUNDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THERE COULD ALSO BE LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE
ALTHOUGH IF THE SHORTWAVE IS EARLIER IN THE DAY SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE WAVE COULD AFFECT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
UNCERTAINTIES... SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL...
STRONG WINDS AND TORNADOES A CONCERN. ON MONDAY... THE TRIPLE POINT
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR OR
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL... STRONG WINDS...
AND TORNADOES A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT INTO SE PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY.
THE SFC MOISTURE WILL NOT GO FAR AWAY AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK
NORTH OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
STORMS... PARTS OF THE FA COULD HIT TRIPLE DIGITS OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF SW OK/WESTERN NORTH TX.
SO TO SUM UP... THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK... WITH SEVERE STORMS... POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT... SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY... AND HOT TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 83 68 91 / 10 10 10 10
HOBART OK 64 88 68 98 / 10 10 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 67 91 70 99 / 10 10 10 20
GAGE OK 62 89 65 95 / 10 10 10 30
PONCA CITY OK 61 83 67 88 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 66 82 69 92 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
84/02
000
FXUS64 KTSA 170239
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
939 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AS MOST ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED...ALTHOUGH
STILL COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT IN WRN AR. SKIES HAVE PARTIALLY CLEARED ACROSS
MUCH OF NE OK...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THIS TO FILL BACK
IN OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME FOG LIKELY.
UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 62 84 69 89 / 10 0 10 10
FSM 63 82 68 88 / 20 10 10 10
MLC 60 80 68 87 / 10 0 10 10
BVO 58 83 66 89 / 10 0 10 10
FYV 58 80 64 85 / 20 10 10 10
BYV 60 79 64 85 / 20 10 10 10
MKO 60 82 68 88 / 10 0 10 10
MIO 59 83 66 89 / 10 10 10 10
F10 61 81 69 87 / 10 0 10 10
HHW 65 80 68 87 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....18
000
FXUS64 KTSA 162332
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
632 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
HEADING EAST...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE ARKANSAS
TAF SITES THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL BE ON THE RISE ON
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN AR WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY LOSE INFLUENCE OVER THE LOCAL WEATHER.
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY
WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH THESE LARGELY DISSIPATING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SHOULD CLOUD
COVER DISSIPATE WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
TEMPS WILL WARM QUICKLY ON FRIDAY ONCE ANY MORNING CLOUD/FOG
DISSIPATE AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE
WARMING LOW LEVEL PROFILES WILL MARK THE EXPANDING INFLUENCE OF A
CAPPING INVERSION THAT WILL BE A FACTOR THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANDING CAP...THOSE CHANCES
APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY LOW SO THAT THIS FORECAST WILL FOCUS PRECIP
CHANCES BASED ON STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE DRYLINE / FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
SVR STORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN OK
AND LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS ALONG THE STRENGTHENING WARM
FRONTAL ZONE. BOTH THESE ORIGINATION ZONES APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY FAR
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA THAT STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT APPEAR MORE LIKELY FOR SVR WX INTO NE OK
AND NW AR...AS THE DRYLINE SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD AND A COLD
FRONT SLIDES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
STRONG SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARIES...AND CURRENT SHEAR VALUES
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL POSE ALL MODES OF SVR
WEATHER. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL PUSH
FURTHER SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY AND RESIDE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS AGAIN WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH A HIGHLY UNSTABLE RESIDING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME IS LIKELY TO A PERIOD OF SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE WATCHES AND NUMEROUS SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS.
THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN REGARDING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE
RETAINED FOR SEVERAL DAYS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL THIS BOUNDARY MAY
REMAIN IN THE AREA...HOWEVER A TRANSITION TOWARD UPPER RIDGING
WILL LESSEN THE SVR WX POTENTIAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 77 62 84 69 / 20 10 0 10
FSM 75 63 82 68 / 50 40 10 10
MLC 75 60 80 68 / 20 10 0 10
BVO 77 58 83 66 / 20 10 0 10
FYV 70 58 80 64 / 40 30 10 10
BYV 70 60 79 64 / 40 40 10 10
MKO 75 60 82 68 / 20 20 0 10
MIO 73 59 83 66 / 20 20 10 10
F10 76 61 81 69 / 20 10 0 10
HHW 73 65 80 68 / 30 20 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...10
000
FXUS64 KOUN 162328 RRA
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
630 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDTIONS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PREVAILING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FRIDAY
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DICUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS WAS ON STORMS AND SEVERE WX... POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT...
POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A FEW SPRINKLES LINGERING IN FAR EAST/SE PORTIONS OF FA THIS AFTN
BUT EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
DRYLINE WILL SET UP WELL WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A FEW MODELS
SHOWING AN IMPULSE MOVING NE INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTN. THIS
MAY INITIATE A STORM OR TWO FRIDAY BUT WITH DRYLINE WELL WEST OF THE
AREA AND SOME CAPPING ISSUES WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO STORMS AND SEVERE WX POTENTIAL OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A DRYLINE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OR IN WESTERN PARTS OF FA SATURDAY.
A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE
DRYLINE LATE SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING AFFECTING PARTS OF THE FA. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE FA SUNDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THERE COULD ALSO BE LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE
ALTHOUGH IF THE SHORTWAVE IS EARLIER IN THE DAY SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE WAVE COULD AFFECT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
UNCERTAINTIES... SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL...
STRONG WINDS AND TORNADOES A CONCERN. ON MONDAY... THE TRIPLE POINT
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR OR
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL... STRONG WINDS...
AND TORNADOES A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT INTO SE PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY.
THE SFC MOISTURE WILL NOT GO FAR AWAY AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK
NORTH OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
STORMS... PARTS OF THE FA COULD HIT TRIPLE DIGITS OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF SW OK/WESTERN NORTH TX.
SO TO SUM UP... THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK... WITH SEVERE STORMS... POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT... SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY... AND HOT TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 83 68 91 / 10 10 10 10
HOBART OK 63 88 68 98 / 10 10 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 91 70 99 / 10 10 10 20
GAGE OK 60 89 65 95 / 10 10 10 30
PONCA CITY OK 62 83 67 88 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 66 82 69 92 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/25
000
FXUS64 KOUN 162328
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
332 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDTIONS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PREVAILING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FRIDAY
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DICUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS WAS ON STORMS AND SEVERE WX... POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT...
POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A FEW SPRINKLES LINGERING IN FAR EAST/SE PORTIONS OF FA THIS AFTN
BUT EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
DRYLINE WILL SET UP WELL WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A FEW MODELS
SHOWING AN IMPULSE MOVING NE INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTN. THIS
MAY INITIATE A STORM OR TWO FRIDAY BUT WITH DRYLINE WELL WEST OF THE
AREA AND SOME CAPPING ISSUES WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO STORMS AND SEVERE WX POTENTIAL OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A DRYLINE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OR IN WESTERN PARTS OF FA SATURDAY.
A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE
DRYLINE LATE SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING AFFECTING PARTS OF THE FA. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE FA SUNDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THERE COULD ALSO BE LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE
ALTHOUGH IF THE SHORTWAVE IS EARLIER IN THE DAY SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE WAVE COULD AFFECT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
UNCERTAINTIES... SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL...
STRONG WINDS AND TORNADOES A CONCERN. ON MONDAY... THE TRIPLE POINT
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR OR
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL... STRONG WINDS...
AND TORNADOES A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT INTO SE PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY.
THE SFC MOISTURE WILL NOT GO FAR AWAY AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK
NORTH OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
STORMS... PARTS OF THE FA COULD HIT TRIPLE DIGITS OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF SW OK/WESTERN NORTH TX.
SO TO SUM UP... THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK... WITH SEVERE STORMS... POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT... SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY... AND HOT TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 83 68 91 / 10 10 10 10
HOBART OK 63 88 68 98 / 10 10 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 91 70 99 / 10 10 10 20
GAGE OK 60 89 65 95 / 10 10 10 30
PONCA CITY OK 62 83 67 88 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 66 82 69 92 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/25
000
FXUS64 KTSA 162047
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
347 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN AR WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY LOSE INFLUENCE OVER THE LOCAL WEATHER.
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY
WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH THESE LARGELY DISSIPATING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SHOULD CLOUD
COVER DISSIPATE WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
TEMPS WILL WARM QUICKLY ON FRIDAY ONCE ANY MORNING CLOUD/FOG
DISSIPATE AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE
WARMING LOW LEVEL PROFILES WILL MARK THE EXPANDING INFLUENCE OF A
CAPPING INVERSION THAT WILL BE A FACTOR THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANDING CAP...THOSE CHANCES
APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY LOW SO THAT THIS FORECAST WILL FOCUS PRECIP
CHANCES BASED ON STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE DRYLINE / FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
SVR STORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN OK
AND LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS ALONG THE STRENGTHENING WARM
FRONTAL ZONE. BOTH THESE ORIGINATION ZONES APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY FAR
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA THAT STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT APPEAR MORE LIKELY FOR SVR WX INTO NE OK
AND NW AR...AS THE DRYLINE SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD AND A COLD
FRONT SLIDES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
STRONG SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARIES...AND CURRENT SHEAR VALUES
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL POSE ALL MODES OF SVR
WEATHER. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL PUSH
FURTHER SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY AND RESIDE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS AGAIN WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH A HIGHLY UNSTABLE RESIDING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME IS LIKELY TO A PERIOD OF SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE WATCHES AND NUMEROUS SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS.
THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN REGARDING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE
RETAINED FOR SEVERAL DAYS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL THIS BOUNDARY MAY
REMAIN IN THE AREA...HOWEVER A TRANSITION TOWARD UPPER RIDGING
WILL LESSEN THE SVR WX POTENTIAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 62 84 69 89 / 10 0 10 10
FSM 63 82 68 88 / 40 10 10 10
MLC 60 80 68 87 / 10 0 10 10
BVO 58 83 66 89 / 10 0 10 10
FYV 58 80 64 85 / 30 10 10 10
BYV 60 79 64 85 / 40 10 10 10
MKO 60 82 68 88 / 20 0 10 10
MIO 59 83 66 89 / 20 10 10 10
F10 61 81 69 87 / 10 0 10 10
HHW 65 80 68 87 / 20 0 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....07
000
FXUS64 KOUN 162032
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
332 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS WAS ON STORMS AND SEVERE WX... POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT...
POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A FEW SPRINKLES LINGERING IN FAR EAST/SE PORTIONS OF FA THIS AFTN
BUT EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
DRYLINE WILL SET UP WELL WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A FEW MODELS
SHOWING AN IMPULSE MOVING NE INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTN. THIS
MAY INITIATE A STORM OR TWO FRIDAY BUT WITH DRYLINE WELL WEST OF THE
AREA AND SOME CAPPING ISSUES WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO STORMS AND SEVERE WX POTENTIAL OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A DRYLINE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OR IN WESTERN PARTS OF FA SATURDAY.
A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE
DRYLINE LATE SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING AFFECTING PARTS OF THE FA. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE FA SUNDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THERE COULD ALSO BE LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE
ALTHOUGH IF THE SHORTWAVE IS EARLIER IN THE DAY SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE WAVE COULD AFFECT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
UNCERTAINTIES... SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL...
STRONG WINDS AND TORNADOES A CONCERN. ON MONDAY... THE TRIPLE POINT
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR OR
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL... STRONG WINDS...
AND TORNADOES A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT INTO SE PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY.
THE SFC MOISTURE WILL NOT GO FAR AWAY AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK
NORTH OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
STORMS... PARTS OF THE FA COULD HIT TRIPLE DIGITS OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF SW OK/WESTERN NORTH TX.
SO TO SUM UP... THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK... WITH SEVERE STORMS... POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT... SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY... AND HOT TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 83 68 91 / 10 10 10 10
HOBART OK 63 88 68 98 / 10 10 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 91 70 99 / 10 10 10 20
GAGE OK 60 89 65 95 / 10 10 10 30
PONCA CITY OK 62 83 67 88 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 66 82 69 92 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/25
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