[top]
000
FXUS64 KTSA 210449
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS HINT AT POSSIBLE MVFR
CEILINGS EARLY MONDAY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS TO COVER THIS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FESTER ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE NEW 00Z NAM AND THE 12Z ECMWF BOTH
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT SO AM HESITANT TO TOTALLY REMOVE
POPS. WILL LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE EVERYWHERE THOUGH FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HAVE ALSO LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST
PLACES.
UPDATE ON THE WAY.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
[top]
000
FXUS64 KOUN 210356
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1056 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL BE NEAR THE KOKC...KOUN...KPNC...KCSM...
KHBR...AND KLAW SITES THROUGH 16Z. WILL KEEP VCSH IN THESE AREAS
AS CHANCES FOR TS SEEM TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION. WILL NOT MENTION
ANY VCSH/VCTS BEYOND 16Z AS CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE SEEMS VERY LOW.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR...IF NOT IFR...CONDITIONS NEAR
KOKC...KOUN...KCSM...KHBR...AND KLAW 09-14Z. WILL ADD TEMPO
MVFR MENTION AT KCSM AND KHBR WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE
IS HIGHEST.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012/
UPDATE...
MOIST CONVECTION RAPIDLY DECREASED EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ELEVATED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...MAINLY
WEST OF I-35 WITHIN HIGHER MID LEVEL THETAE AXIS...AS A VERY
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PASSES
OVERHEAD. POPS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY FOR TONIGHT. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS FROM NEAR MAJOR COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH HARMON
COUNTY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 79 59 85 / 20 10 10 10
HOBART OK 61 78 61 87 / 30 20 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 83 62 90 / 20 30 10 10
GAGE OK 55 78 59 89 / 20 20 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 57 77 53 82 / 20 10 10 10
DURANT OK 67 85 60 86 / 20 30 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/17/17
000
FXUS64 KOUN 210315
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1015 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.UPDATE...
MOIST CONVECTION RAPIDLY DECREASED EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ELEVATED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...MAINLY
WEST OF I-35 WITHIN HIGHER MID LEVEL THETAE AXIS...AS A VERY
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PASSES
OVERHEAD. POPS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY FOR TONIGHT. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS FROM NEAR MAJOR COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH HARMON
COUNTY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANTCHANGES WERE MADE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 61 79 59 / 70 20 10 10
HOBART OK 72 61 78 61 / 30 30 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 88 66 83 62 / 20 20 30 10
GAGE OK 77 55 78 59 / 10 20 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 78 57 77 53 / 10 20 10 10
DURANT OK 89 67 85 60 / 20 20 30 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/17
000
FXUS64 KTSA 210238
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
938 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FESTER ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE NEW 00Z NAM AND THE 12Z ECMWF BOTH
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT SO AM HESITANT TO TOTALLY REMOVE
POPS. WILL LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE EVERYWHERE THOUGH FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEHERE DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HAVE ALSO LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST
PLACES.
UPDATE ON THE WAY.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05
PLATE
000
FXUS64 KOUN 202346
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE AT BEST.
THINK ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL NOT AFFECT TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z. ADDED VCSH NEAR KOKC...KOUN...KCSM...AND KHBR 08-16Z WHERE
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS MODERATE. DID NOT MENTION ANY
VCSH/VCTS BEYOND 16Z AS CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE SEEMS VERY LOW.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR...IF NOT IFR...CONDITIONS NEAR
KOKC...KOUN...KCSM...AND KHBR 04-16Z. FOR NOW...WENT OPTIMISTIC
AND KEPT THESE SITES VFR DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF THESE LOWER
CONDITIONS.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...
AS WE TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF
PLAINS TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEAR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY...AND ALSO ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
NEAR MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERALL UPPER SUPPORT NOT ALL THAT
GREAT AND MOST OF THE REGION HAS BEEN AFFECTED BY DAYTIME CLOUD
COVER. MOSTLY SUNNY AND UNSTABLE REGION ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED...BUT SUBSIDENCE ON SOUTHERN/DOWNSTREAM PERIPHERY OF
STORM COMPLEX EVIDENT IN SATELLITE TRENDS.
WILL KEEP POPS GOING TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT WITH MAIN
BOUNDARY NEAR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA...WITH POPS
MAINLY CONFINED TO WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. WARMING TREND AND RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WIND DURING THE WEEK
EXPECTED WITH DRY FORECAST AFTER MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 58 79 59 85 / 40 10 10 10
HOBART OK 59 78 61 87 / 30 20 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 65 83 62 90 / 30 30 10 10
GAGE OK 51 78 59 89 / 20 20 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 54 77 53 82 / 20 10 10 10
DURANT OK 66 85 60 86 / 40 30 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/17/17
000
FXUS64 KTSA 202257
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
557 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... ONGOING ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH VERY LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED...
HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN ANY TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS HINT AT POSSIBLE MVFR
CEILINGS EARLY MONDAY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS TO COVER THIS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY REMAINED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO...SCATTERED
STORMS HAVE PUSHED INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GENERALLY
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. THIS IS IN THE GENERAL VICINITY
OF A FAIRLY DIFFUSE BOUNDARY...ONE OF A FEW THAT EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER HAS LARGELY STUNTED ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS SO FAR...BUT A THINNING IN THE HIGH CLOUD COVER ON
SATELLITE AND A GRADUAL CAP WEAKENING EVIDENT IN MESOANALYSIS
SHOULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THE EVENING. WILL LIKELY REVISIT THE EVENING POPS BEFORE
FORECAST ISSUANCE...WITH CHANGES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA PUSHES SOUTHWARD. TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY CHILLY COMPARED TO RECENT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA LIKELY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAKE A QUICK RETURN ON
TUESDAY...LEADING TO A CORRESPONDING RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE AREA FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...LIKELY BRINGING THE
HOTTEST STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. MID 90S WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD FOR AT LEAST THE
MAJORITY /AND PROBABLY ALL/ OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...AND AS A
RESULT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOK TO BE MORE OF A HAZARD ACROSS THE
AREA THAN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THOSE SPENDING THE LONG
WEEKEND OUTDOORS.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
000
FXUS64 KTSA 202000
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY REMAINED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO...SCATTERED
STORMS HAVE PUSHED INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GENERALLY
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. THIS IS IN THE GENERAL VICINITY
OF A FAIRLY DIFFUSE BOUNDARY...ONE OF A FEW THAT EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER HAS LARGELY STUNTED ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS SO FAR...BUT A THINNING IN THE HIGH CLOUD COVER ON
SATELLITE AND A GRADUAL CAP WEAKENING EVIDENT IN MESOANALYSIS
SHOULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THE EVENING. WILL LIKELY REVISIT THE EVENING POPS BEFORE
FORECAST ISSUANCE...WITH CHANGES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA PUSHES SOUTHWARD. TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY CHILLY COMPARED TO RECENT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA LIKELY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAKE A QUICK RETURN ON
TUESDAY...LEADING TO A CORRESPONDING RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE AREA FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...LIKELY BRINGING THE
HOTTEST STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. MID 90S WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD FOR AT LEAST THE
MAJORITY /AND PROBABLY ALL/ OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...AND AS A
RESULT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOK TO BE MORE OF A HAZARD ACROSS THE
AREA THAN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THOSE SPENDING THE LONG
WEEKEND OUTDOORS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 60 78 53 84 / 20 10 0 10
FSM 63 81 54 85 / 30 10 0 0
MLC 61 81 55 86 / 30 10 0 0
BVO 55 77 51 84 / 10 10 0 10
FYV 57 75 48 80 / 30 10 0 0
BYV 57 74 50 80 / 30 10 0 0
MKO 59 78 53 84 / 30 10 0 0
MIO 57 75 51 83 / 20 10 0 0
F10 60 78 54 85 / 30 10 0 0
HHW 65 84 58 86 / 20 20 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....22
000
FXUS64 KOUN 201946
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
246 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.DISCUSSION...
AS WE TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF
PLAINS TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEAR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY...AND ALSO ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
NEAR MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERALL UPPER SUPPORT NOT ALL THAT
GREAT AND MOST OF THE REGION HAS BEEN AFFECTED BY DAYTIME CLOUD
COVER. MOSTLY SUNNY AND UNSTABLE REGION ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED...BUT SUBSIDENCE ON SOUTHERN/DOWNSTREAM PERIPHERY OF
STORM COMPLEX EVIDENT IN SATELLITE TRENDS.
WILL KEEP POPS GOING TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT WITH MAIN
BOUNDARY NEAR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA...WITH POPS
MAINLY CONFINED TO WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. WARMING TREND AND RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WIND DURING THE WEEK
EXPECTED WITH DRY FORECAST AFTER MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 58 79 59 85 / 40 10 10 10
HOBART OK 59 78 61 87 / 30 20 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 65 83 62 90 / 30 30 10 10
GAGE OK 51 78 59 89 / 20 20 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 54 77 53 82 / 20 10 10 10
DURANT OK 66 85 60 86 / 40 30 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/11
000
FXUS64 KTSA 201736
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1236 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE
44. MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DEVELOP WITH ANY OF
THE STRONGER STORMS...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
LATE THIS MORNING. MULTIPLE WEAK BOUNDARIES NOTED AHEAD OF FRONT
AND WITH MODEST AFTERNOON HEATING...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A FEW STORMS COULD BRIEFLY
PULSE TO SEVERE LEVELS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...12
000
FXUS64 KOUN 201731
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.AVIATION...
20/18Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR FORECAST WITH MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR TSRA.
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND PRIMARILY AFFECT KOKC/KOUN BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD
TOWARD AND AFTER 21-22Z. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORM
ACTIVITY NEAR KSPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THAT TAF.
&&
.UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM WITHIN WEAK MID-LEVEL
WAA. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
CURRENT CONVECTION...BUT FORECAST CURRENT PRECIP
WILL SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN AS MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
WEST TO NORTHWEST. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 76 61 79 59 / 70 30 20 10
HOBART OK 77 61 79 60 / 40 20 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 88 65 82 64 / 20 30 30 20
GAGE OK 77 55 79 56 / 10 20 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 78 53 76 52 / 10 20 0 10
DURANT OK 89 64 82 61 / 20 30 30 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOUN 201632
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM WITHIN WEAK MID-LEVEL
WAA. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
CURRENT CONVECTION...BUT FORECAST CURRENT PRECIP
WILL SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN AS MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
WEST TO NORTHWEST. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 76 61 79 59 / 70 30 20 10
HOBART OK 77 61 79 60 / 40 20 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 88 65 82 64 / 20 30 30 20
GAGE OK 77 55 79 56 / 10 20 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 78 53 76 52 / 10 20 0 10
DURANT OK 89 64 82 61 / 20 30 30 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KTSA 201615
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1115 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
LATE THIS MORNING. MULTIPLE WEAK BOUNDARIES NOTED AHEAD OF FRONT
AND WITH MODEST AFTERNOON HEATING...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A FEW STORMS COULD BRIEFLY
PULSE TO SEVERE LEVELS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
000
FXUS64 KTSA 201046
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
546 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PLAGUE THE
AREA TODAY...MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE RULE. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO
A NORTHERLY DIRECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012/
DISCUSSION...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN KS TO
WEAK WAVE NEAR PNC...THEN SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. MORE DIFFUSE
BOUNDARY NOTED ACROSS CNTRL OK INTO PARTS OF SERN OK...AS A RESULT
TO SLOW MOVING CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL OK. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS ACTIVITY AS IT HAS BEEN PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. MAIN FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO PARTS OF ERN OK
LATER TODAY...AND HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHEST CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. CLOUDS/AREAS OF OF PRECIP WILL HOLD
TEMPS DOWN SOME...WITH READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS.
SURFACE FRONT WILL DIP SLOWLY S THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY STALLING
OVER NRN TX SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING
THIS PERIOD...WITH ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY
ACROSS SERN OK.
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. SLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW RETURNS BY TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF/GFS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK. HOT/HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...AND HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN MEX
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 81 59 79 57 / 40 30 10 0
FSM 85 62 82 57 / 30 30 20 10
MLC 84 61 82 57 / 30 30 20 0
BVO 80 55 78 52 / 40 20 10 0
FYV 80 54 76 49 / 40 30 10 10
BYV 80 56 75 51 / 40 30 10 0
MKO 81 60 78 55 / 40 30 20 0
MIO 80 57 76 53 / 40 20 10 0
F10 80 60 79 57 / 50 30 20 0
HHW 86 64 84 62 / 20 20 30 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...10
000
FXUS64 KOUN 200853
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
353 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OK AS LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTS WITH FRONTAL/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
SECTIONS ON MONDAY AS FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER
MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER FROM
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 81 61 79 59 / 50 30 20 10
HOBART OK 79 61 79 60 / 30 20 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 87 65 82 64 / 40 30 30 20
GAGE OK 77 55 79 56 / 20 20 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 78 53 76 52 / 30 20 0 10
DURANT OK 87 64 82 61 / 20 30 30 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
30/02
000
FXUS64 KTSA 200838
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
338 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.DISCUSSION...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN KS TO
WEAK WAVE NEAR PNC...THEN SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. MORE DIFFUSE
BOUNDARY NOTED ACROSS CNTRL OK INTO PARTS OF SERN OK...AS A RESULT
TO SLOW MOVING CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL OK. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS ACTIVITY AS IT HAS BEEN PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. MAIN FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO PARTS OF ERN OK
LATER TODAY...AND HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHEST CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. CLOUDS/AREAS OF OF PRECIP WILL HOLD
TEMPS DOWN SOME...WITH READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS.
SURFACE FRONT WILL DIP SLOWLY S THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY STALLING
OVER NRN TX SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING
THIS PERIOD...WITH ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY
ACROSS SERN OK.
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. SLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW RETURNS BY TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF/GFS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK. HOT/HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...AND HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN MEX
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 81 59 79 57 / 40 30 10 0
FSM 85 62 82 57 / 30 30 20 10
MLC 84 61 82 57 / 30 30 20 0
BVO 80 55 78 52 / 40 20 10 0
FYV 80 54 76 49 / 40 30 10 10
BYV 80 56 75 51 / 40 30 10 0
MKO 81 60 78 55 / 40 30 20 0
MIO 80 57 76 53 / 40 20 10 0
F10 80 60 79 57 / 40 30 20 0
HHW 86 64 84 62 / 20 20 30 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....18
000
FXUS64 KOUN 200531
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1215 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS EVENING.
STORMS WILL AFFECT ALL BUT NW OK SITES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT FROM
NCNTRL OK INTO TX PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SWD
OVERNIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012/
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE.
ISO-SCT TSRA WILL AFFECT PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND MOVE SOUTHEAST...
MAINLY AFFECT KCSM...KPNC...KOKC...KOUN...AND KHBR DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING BY 12Z. THESE STORMS COULD
BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND MVFR CONDITIONS IF THEY
DIRECTLY IMPACT A SITE. THINK KOKC WILL BE AFFECTED MAINLY 06-08Z.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA 09-16Z. ONLY KEPT TEMPO MENTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KSPS WHERE CONFIDENCE OF THESE LOWER CONDITIONS IS MODERATE.
A FEW SHRA MAY BE LINGER OVER THE AREA AFTER 12Z...SO ADDED VCSH
AT SOME LOCATIONS. A FEW TSRA MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 19Z...BUT DID
NOT MENTION VCTS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF EXACT LOCATION
AND TIMING.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM MODELS LEADS TO HIGHER POPS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT STORMS WILL
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD FROM KANSAS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF OVERNIGHT COMPLEX ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA A LITTLE
LESS CERTAIN. THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA BUT
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. STORM
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER/NEAR THE REGION AND SUBTLE
S/WVS IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW.
UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED TO INCREASE TUESDAY ON SO WILL LEAVE
FORECAST DRY WITH WARMING TREND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 82 62 83 / 60 40 40 30
HOBART OK 64 82 62 85 / 60 30 30 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 67 87 63 88 / 20 30 30 30
GAGE OK 56 76 56 81 / 40 20 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 63 79 59 80 / 50 50 30 10
DURANT OK 66 88 63 86 / 10 20 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/17/17
000
FXUS64 KTSA 200452
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1152 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TAF SITES...THE CHANCES NOW APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION. A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT THE
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAS MADE SLOW BUT STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS. STORMS HAVE
BEEN SEVERE ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY IN KANSAS
AND ARE CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING FURTHER SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA.
INSTABILITY DROPS OFF QUICKLY EASTWARD SO ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN WITH TIME TONIGHT. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES BUT IT IS DEBATABLE IF STORMS CAN
REMAIN SEVERE EVEN THAT FAR EAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT AND AT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012/
DISCUSSION...
HOT AND WINDY DAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA. CONSIDERED DROPPING THE WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...BUT RECENT GUSTS HAVE
BEEN VERY NEAR THE 40 MPH THRESHOLD SO WILL GO AHEAD AND LET IT
RIDE UNTIL THE 00Z EXPIRATION TIME.
PERSISTENT CU FIELD IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW LEVEL THETA E RIDGE IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS AREAS OF OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE FRONT NEARS THE
INSTABILITY AXIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THESE STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE
EVENING...LIKELY REACHING AREAS TO THE WEST OF TULSA BY LATE
EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT THAT STORM ORGANIZATION OR INTENSITY WILL
BE AS GREAT ONCE THEY REACH EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT DUE TO
LIMITED AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...BUT THE RISK OF ESPECIALLY STRONG
WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL IS NOT ZERO. THE GREATEST RISK SHOULD BE
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. THE STORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO
REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY TOMORROW MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW. THIS FORECAST SIDES MORE WITH THE
GFS SOLUTION AND THE HIGHER MAV POPS...AS THEY HAVE STRONG
SUPPORT FROM OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS...NOTABLY THE NMM AND ARW
RUNS.
LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND COOLER...MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY...BEFORE WARMER AIR AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...LEADING TO MORE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...05
000
FXUS64 KTSA 200214
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
914 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAS MADE SLOW BUT STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS. STORMS HAVE
BEEN SEVERE ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY IN KANSAS
AND ARE CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING FURTHER SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA.
INSTABILITY DROPS OFF QUICKLY EASTWARD SO ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN WITH TIME TONIGHT. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES BUT IT IS DEBATABLE IF STORMS CAN
REMAIN SEVERE EVEN THAT FAR EAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT AND AT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012/
DISCUSSION...
HOT AND WINDY DAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA. CONSIDERED DROPPING THE WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...BUT RECENT GUSTS HAVE
BEEN VERY NEAR THE 40 MPH THRESHOLD SO WILL GO AHEAD AND LET IT
RIDE UNTIL THE 00Z EXPIRATION TIME.
PERSISTENT CU FIELD IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW LEVEL THETA E RIDGE IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS AREAS OF OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE FRONT NEARS THE
INSTABILITY AXIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THESE STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE
EVENING...LIKELY REACHING AREAS TO THE WEST OF TULSA BY LATE
EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT THAT STORM ORGANIZATION OR INTENSITY WILL
BE AS GREAT ONCE THEY REACH EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT DUE TO
LIMITED AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...BUT THE RISK OF ESPECIALLY STRONG
WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL IS NOT ZERO. THE GREATEST RISK SHOULD BE
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. THE STORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO
REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY TOMORROW MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW. THIS FORECAST SIDES MORE WITH THE
GFS SOLUTION AND THE HIGHER MAV POPS...AS THEY HAVE STRONG
SUPPORT FROM OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS...NOTABLY THE NMM AND ARW
RUNS.
LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND COOLER...MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY...BEFORE WARMER AIR AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...LEADING TO MORE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
000
FXUS64 KTSA 200008
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
708 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT AND AT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012/
DISCUSSION...
HOT AND WINDY DAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA. CONSIDERED DROPPING THE WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...BUT RECENT GUSTS HAVE
BEEN VERY NEAR THE 40 MPH THRESHOLD SO WILL GO AHEAD AND LET IT
RIDE UNTIL THE 00Z EXPIRATION TIME.
PERSISTENT CU FIELD IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW LEVEL THETA E RIDGE IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS AREAS OF OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE FRONT NEARS THE
INSTABILITY AXIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THESE STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE
EVENING...LIKELY REACHING AREAS TO THE WEST OF TULSA BY LATE
EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT THAT STORM ORGANIZATION OR INTENSITY WILL
BE AS GREAT ONCE THEY REACH EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT DUE TO
LIMITED AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...BUT THE RISK OF ESPECIALLY STRONG
WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL IS NOT ZERO. THE GREATEST RISK SHOULD BE
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. THE STORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO
REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY TOMORROW MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW. THIS FORECAST SIDES MORE WITH THE
GFS SOLUTION AND THE HIGHER MAV POPS...AS THEY HAVE STRONG
SUPPORT FROM OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS...NOTABLY THE NMM AND ARW
RUNS.
LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND COOLER...MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY...BEFORE WARMER AIR AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...LEADING TO MORE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...05
000
FXUS64 KOUN 192339
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
639 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE.
ISO-SCT TSRA WILL AFFECT PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND MOVE SOUTHEAST...
MAINLY AFFECT KCSM...KPNC...KOKC...KOUN...AND KHBR DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING BY 12Z. THESE STORMS COULD
BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND MVFR CONDITIONS IF THEY
DIRECTLY IMPACT A SITE. THINK KOKC WILL BE AFFECTED MAINLY 06-08Z.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA 09-16Z. ONLY KEPT TEMPO MENTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KSPS WHERE CONFIDENCE OF THESE LOWER CONDITIONS IS MODERATE.
A FEW SHRA MAY BE LINGER OVER THE AREA AFTER 12Z...SO ADDED VCSH
AT SOME LOCATIONS. A FEW TSRA MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 19Z...BUT DID
NOT MENTION VCTS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF EXACT LOCATION
AND TIMING.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM MODELS LEADS TO HIGHER POPS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT STORMS WILL
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD FROM KANSAS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF OVERNIGHT COMPLEX ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA A LITTLE
LESS CERTAIN. THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA BUT
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. STORM
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER/NEAR THE REGION AND SUBTLE
S/WVS IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW.
UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED TO INCREASE TUESDAY ON SO WILL LEAVE
FORECAST DRY WITH WARMING TREND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 82 62 83 / 60 40 40 30
HOBART OK 64 82 62 85 / 60 30 30 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 67 87 63 88 / 20 30 30 30
GAGE OK 56 76 56 81 / 40 20 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 63 79 59 80 / 50 50 30 10
DURANT OK 66 88 63 86 / 10 20 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/17/17
000
FXUS64 KTSA 192012
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
312 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.DISCUSSION...
HOT AND WINDY DAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA. CONSIDERED DROPPING THE WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...BUT RECENT GUSTS HAVE
BEEN VERY NEAR THE 40 MPH THRESHOLD SO WILL GO AHEAD AND LET IT
RIDE UNTIL THE 00Z EXPIRATION TIME.
PERSISTENT CU FIELD IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW LEVEL THETA E RIDGE IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS AREAS OF OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE FRONT NEARS THE
INSTABILITY AXIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THESE STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE
EVENING...LIKELY REACHING AREAS TO THE WEST OF TULSA BY LATE
EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT THAT STORM ORGANIZATION OR INTENSITY WILL
BE AS GREAT ONCE THEY REACH EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT DUE TO
LIMITED AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...BUT THE RISK OF ESPECIALLY STRONG
WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL IS NOT ZERO. THE GREATEST RISK SHOULD BE
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. THE STORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO
REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY TOMORROW MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW. THIS FORECAST SIDES MORE WITH THE
GFS SOLUTION AND THE HIGHER MAV POPS...AS THEY HAVE STRONG
SUPPORT FROM OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS...NOTABLY THE NMM AND ARW
RUNS.
LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND COOLER...MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY...BEFORE WARMER AIR AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...LEADING TO MORE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 66 81 61 81 / 50 50 40 10
FSM 65 84 62 82 / 10 30 30 20
MLC 65 85 61 82 / 20 30 30 20
BVO 63 78 57 81 / 50 50 30 10
FYV 59 79 55 78 / 10 40 40 20
BYV 62 78 56 79 / 10 40 40 10
MKO 64 80 60 81 / 20 40 40 20
MIO 65 81 59 79 / 40 50 30 10
F10 64 82 60 81 / 30 30 40 20
HHW 65 86 64 85 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....22
000
FXUS64 KOUN 191944
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
244 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM MODELS LEADS TO HIGHER POPS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT STORMS WILL
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD FROM KANSAS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF OVERNIGHT COMPLEX ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA A LITTLE
LESS CERTAIN. THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA BUT
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. STORM
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER/NEAR THE REGION AND SUBTLE
S/WVS IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW.
UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED TO INCREASE TUESDAY ON SO WILL LEAVE
FORECAST DRY WITH WARMING TREND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 82 62 83 / 60 40 40 30
HOBART OK 64 82 62 85 / 60 30 30 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 67 87 63 88 / 20 30 30 30
GAGE OK 56 76 56 81 / 40 20 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 63 79 59 80 / 50 50 30 10
DURANT OK 66 88 63 86 / 10 20 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/11
000
FXUS64 KOUN 191744
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.AVIATION...
19/18Z TAFS...STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF SLOW
MOVING FRONT. FRONT WAS MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AT THIS
TYPING AND WILL MAINLY AFFECT KGAG/KWWR/KPNC WITH SIG WIND SHIFT
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY NEAR FRONT TOWARD
00Z WITH MOST MODELS DEVELOPING LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO WORDING IN
THESE AREAS WITH PROB30 OR NO MENTION IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND KSPS
TERMINALS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 65 82 62 / 0 40 40 40
HOBART OK 88 63 83 62 / 10 30 30 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 89 67 85 64 / 10 20 20 30
GAGE OK 88 57 77 56 / 30 30 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 83 62 78 60 / 20 40 40 20
DURANT OK 86 64 85 64 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/11
000
FXUS64 KTSA 191644
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1144 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
MAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY
OCCUR WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM...VFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
SENT UPDATE EARLIER FOR WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 40 MPH APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE OK...ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44. THIN BAND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEND UPDATE
LATER THIS MORNING TO REMOVE SHORT TERM POPS/TWEAK CLOUDS...
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...12
000
FXUS64 KTSA 191426
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
926 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
SENT UPDATE EARLIER FOR WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 40 MPH APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE OK...ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44. THIN BAND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEND UPDATE
LATER THIS MORNING TO REMOVE SHORT TERM POPS/TWEAK CLOUDS...
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
000
FXUS64 KOUN 191049
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
545 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND WEAKEN ACROSS NORTHWEST BY
AFTN AS SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES. OTHERWISE ANY CEILINGS WILL BE
FROM CIRRUS DURING THE DAY TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH GAG/WWR
AROUND 00Z WITH POSSIBILITY OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AFFECTING MOST SITES. CEILINGS WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST OVERNIGHT... HOWEVER EXPECT MOST TO REMAIN IN
VFR CATEGORY UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST AS POSSIBILITY OF NEAR MVFR
CEILINGS BECOME MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012/
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND WINDY DAY ON TAP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS
REMAINS ON TRACK TO ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTN. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE DAY DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS LATER TODAY. EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE IN ABUNDANCE... IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ALONG
WITH COOLING ALOFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE TO CREATE MODEST AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY. SO A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. STORMS WILL BE VERY HIGH-BASED SO HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS WILL BE MAIN CONCERNS.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL LOWER... TO APPROACH CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST
AND WILL BE MEANDERING AROUND THE I-44 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY AND THIS
WILL BE WHERE HIGHER POPS RESIDE THROUGH THEN. ANOTHER MINOR WAVE
MOVES THROUGH PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY... GIVING THE FRONT AN
ADDITIONAL PUSH SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
MODELS CONT TO TRY AND DEVELOP PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY... MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST.
APPEARS TO BE AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AS LOW LEVEL WIND/TEMP
FIELDS RESPOND TO NEXT WAVE MOVING INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE MENTION OF ANY PRECIP OUT OF FORECAST... BUT WILL NEED
TO KEEP EYE ON THIS POSSIBILITY.
BEYOND THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM FORECAST AS EXTENDED MODELS
CONT TO DIFFER ON HOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF WESTERN TROUGH OCCURS
TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 65 82 62 / 10 40 40 40
HOBART OK 88 63 83 62 / 10 30 30 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 89 67 85 64 / 0 20 20 30
GAGE OK 88 57 77 56 / 30 30 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 83 62 78 60 / 20 40 40 20
DURANT OK 86 64 85 64 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/30
000
FXUS64 KTSA 191028
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
528 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TAF SITES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE VALID PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TAF
SITES LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE AFFECTED
SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012/
DISCUSSION...
NAM/LOCAL MODEL STILL HINTING AT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF
NE OK TOWARD SUNRISE...AND WILL LEAVE INHERITED SMALL POPS AS IS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY IN STORE WITH HIGH TEMPS
RUNNING A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS NE OK...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE WATCH ON THIS.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER TODAY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO WRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL JET...AND
MAY IMPACT PARTS OF ERN OK MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A
FEW STRONG STORMS EXPECTED GIVEN THE AFTERNOON HEATING/RESULTANT
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL PRECLUDE ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER.
UPPER FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES NWLY BY MONDAY...WITH THE SURFACE
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK CLOSER TO
NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS S. SOUTH WINDS AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY RETURN BY MID
TO LATE WEEK...WITH TEMPS BOUNCING BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS ONCE
AGAIN. KEPT THE EXTENDED PERIOD DRY...WITH SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...10
000
FXUS64 KTSA 190846
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
346 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.DISCUSSION...
NAM/LOCAL MODEL STILL HINTING AT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF
NE OK TOWARD SUNRISE...AND WILL LEAVE INHERITED SMALL POPS AS IS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY IN STORE WITH HIGH TEMPS
RUNNING A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS NE OK...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE WATCH ON THIS.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER TODAY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO WRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL JET...AND
MAY IMPACT PARTS OF ERN OK MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A
FEW STRONG STORMS EXPECTED GIVEN THE AFTERNOON HEATING/RESULTANT
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL PRECLUDE ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER.
UPPER FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES NWLY BY MONDAY...WITH THE SURFACE
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK CLOSER TO
NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS S. SOUTH WINDS AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY RETURN BY MID
TO LATE WEEK...WITH TEMPS BOUNCING BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS ONCE
AGAIN. KEPT THE EXTENDED PERIOD DRY...WITH SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 87 66 82 60 / 10 30 50 30
FSM 89 65 85 62 / 10 10 20 30
MLC 86 64 85 61 / 0 20 20 20
BVO 86 64 80 57 / 20 30 50 30
FYV 85 59 80 55 / 10 10 30 30
BYV 87 62 81 57 / 10 10 40 30
MKO 86 64 82 61 / 10 20 30 30
MIO 87 65 81 59 / 10 20 50 30
F10 86 64 82 61 / 0 20 30 30
HHW 85 63 85 63 / 0 10 20 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....18
000
FXUS64 KOUN 190846
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
346 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND WINDY DAY ON TAP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS
REMAINS ON TRACK TO ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTN. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE DAY DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS LATER TODAY. EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE IN ABUNDANCE... IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ALONG
WITH COOLING ALOFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE TO CREATE MODEST AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY. SO A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. STORMS WILL BE VERY HIGH-BASED SO HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS WILL BE MAIN CONCERNS.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL LOWER... TO APPROACH CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST
AND WILL BE MEANDERING AROUND THE I-44 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY AND THIS
WILL BE WHERE HIGHER POPS RESIDE THROUGH THEN. ANOTHER MINOR WAVE
MOVES THROUGH PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY... GIVING THE FRONT AN
ADDITIONAL PUSH SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
MODELS CONT TO TRY AND DEVELOP PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY... MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST.
APPEARS TO BE AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AS LOW LEVEL WIND/TEMP
FIELDS RESPOND TO NEXT WAVE MOVING INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE MENTION OF ANY PRECIP OUT OF FORECAST... BUT WILL NEED
TO KEEP EYE ON THIS POSSIBILITY.
BEYOND THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM FORECAST AS EXTENDED MODELS
CONT TO DIFFER ON HOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF WESTERN TROUGH OCCURS
TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 65 82 62 / 10 40 40 40
HOBART OK 88 63 83 62 / 10 30 30 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 89 67 85 64 / 0 20 20 30
GAGE OK 88 57 77 56 / 30 30 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 83 62 78 60 / 20 40 40 20
DURANT OK 86 64 85 64 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/30
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