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  [top]

000
FXUS64 KTSA 211130
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF FOG WILL RESULT IN HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY AT KBVO/KFYV/KXNA...WITH KTUL MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN
VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP...WITH KFYV AND KXNA MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY MORNING. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE AFFECTED AREA UNTIL MID-MORNING. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...A DECK OF
CLOUDS AT 4 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET IS KEEPING THE FOG IN CHECK FOR
THE TIME BEING.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS ARE ON TAP
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN SUPREME AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 211130
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF FOG WILL RESULT IN HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY AT KBVO/KFYV/KXNA...WITH KTUL MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN
VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP...WITH KFYV AND KXNA MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY MORNING. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE AFFECTED AREA UNTIL MID-MORNING. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...A DECK OF
CLOUDS AT 4 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET IS KEEPING THE FOG IN CHECK FOR
THE TIME BEING.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS ARE ON TAP
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN SUPREME AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05





000
FXUS64 KTSA 211130
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF FOG WILL RESULT IN HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY AT KBVO/KFYV/KXNA...WITH KTUL MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN
VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP...WITH KFYV AND KXNA MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY MORNING. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE AFFECTED AREA UNTIL MID-MORNING. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...A DECK OF
CLOUDS AT 4 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET IS KEEPING THE FOG IN CHECK FOR
THE TIME BEING.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS ARE ON TAP
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN SUPREME AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 211130
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF FOG WILL RESULT IN HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY AT KBVO/KFYV/KXNA...WITH KTUL MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN
VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP...WITH KFYV AND KXNA MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY MORNING. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE AFFECTED AREA UNTIL MID-MORNING. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...A DECK OF
CLOUDS AT 4 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET IS KEEPING THE FOG IN CHECK FOR
THE TIME BEING.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS ARE ON TAP
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN SUPREME AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOUN 211042
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
542 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND IF DOES OCCUR
COULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO NOT A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 211042
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
542 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND IF DOES OCCUR
COULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO NOT A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 211042
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
542 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND IF DOES OCCUR
COULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO NOT A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 211042
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
542 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND IF DOES OCCUR
COULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO NOT A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 211042
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
542 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND IF DOES OCCUR
COULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO NOT A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 211042
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
542 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND IF DOES OCCUR
COULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO NOT A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210904
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210904
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25



000
FXUS64 KTSA 210744
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
244 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY MORNING. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE AFFECTED AREA UNTIL MID-MORNING. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...A DECK OF
CLOUDS AT 4 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET IS KEEPING THE FOG IN CHECK FOR
THE TIME BEING.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS ARE ON TAP
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN SUPREME AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  57  78  56 /  10  10  10  50
FSM   80  55  76  52 /  10   0   0  20
MLC   80  57  77  54 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   78  53  78  55 /  10  10  10  60
FYV   76  48  72  47 /   0   0   0  30
BYV   74  50  71  48 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   79  55  76  54 /  10  10  10  40
MIO   78  53  76  53 /   0   0  10  50
F10   80  57  78  55 /  10  10  10  40
HHW   80  56  77  53 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....10






000
FXUS64 KOUN 210453 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
STILL EXPECT A SOME LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AREAS
TUESDAY MORNING AS IT HAS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AGAIN... THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CIGS TOO BUT HAVE LEFT THE CIGS OUT OF THE TAFS
FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER PROBABILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TONIGHT. WE CONT TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG
DEELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE STILL NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT...
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT FOR PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE RETREATING FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS SOME MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE NON-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN RECENT
VSBY/SKY CONDITION OBSERVATIONS AT HOBART AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR
IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 210453 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
STILL EXPECT A SOME LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AREAS
TUESDAY MORNING AS IT HAS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AGAIN... THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CIGS TOO BUT HAVE LEFT THE CIGS OUT OF THE TAFS
FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER PROBABILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TONIGHT. WE CONT TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG
DEELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE STILL NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT...
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT FOR PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE RETREATING FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS SOME MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE NON-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN RECENT
VSBY/SKY CONDITION OBSERVATIONS AT HOBART AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR
IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210453 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
STILL EXPECT A SOME LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AREAS
TUESDAY MORNING AS IT HAS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AGAIN... THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CIGS TOO BUT HAVE LEFT THE CIGS OUT OF THE TAFS
FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER PROBABILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TONIGHT. WE CONT TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG
DEELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE STILL NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT...
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT FOR PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE RETREATING FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS SOME MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE NON-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN RECENT
VSBY/SKY CONDITION OBSERVATIONS AT HOBART AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR
IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210453 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
STILL EXPECT A SOME LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AREAS
TUESDAY MORNING AS IT HAS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AGAIN... THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CIGS TOO BUT HAVE LEFT THE CIGS OUT OF THE TAFS
FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER PROBABILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TONIGHT. WE CONT TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG
DEELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE STILL NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT...
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT FOR PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE RETREATING FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS SOME MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE NON-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN RECENT
VSBY/SKY CONDITION OBSERVATIONS AT HOBART AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR
IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210453 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
STILL EXPECT A SOME LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AREAS
TUESDAY MORNING AS IT HAS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AGAIN... THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CIGS TOO BUT HAVE LEFT THE CIGS OUT OF THE TAFS
FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER PROBABILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TONIGHT. WE CONT TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG
DEELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE STILL NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT...
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT FOR PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE RETREATING FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS SOME MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE NON-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN RECENT
VSBY/SKY CONDITION OBSERVATIONS AT HOBART AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR
IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210453 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
STILL EXPECT A SOME LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AREAS
TUESDAY MORNING AS IT HAS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AGAIN... THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CIGS TOO BUT HAVE LEFT THE CIGS OUT OF THE TAFS
FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER PROBABILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TONIGHT. WE CONT TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG
DEELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE STILL NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT...
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT FOR PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE RETREATING FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS SOME MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE NON-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN RECENT
VSBY/SKY CONDITION OBSERVATIONS AT HOBART AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR
IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 210432
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT FYV/XNA LATE THIS EVENING. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING
THE BVO AREA WITH LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING
TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR PER REASONS DISCUSSED EARLIER. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH FOG LIFTING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINED OVER THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SET UP
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...COOLER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED...WHILE A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO THE SOUTH. EITHER WAY...RH
VALUES OVERNIGHT LOOK TO REACH CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
THUS FOR EVENING UPDATE...WILL ADJUST SKY COVER...UP TO PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO THE ALREADY FOG WORDING IN PLACE OVER FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE REST OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR ANY POSSIBLE FOG HEADLINES.
REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE CLOUD COVER/RECENT RAINFALL HAS
KEPT TEMP/DEW-POINT SPREADS MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WELL BELOW CROSSOVER VALUES AT FYV/XNA WITH
LIMITED MIXING OVERNIGHT. THIS...COUPLED WITH POINT SOUNDINGS
FORECASTING CONSTANT OR INCREASING SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES WITH
HEIGHT THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SUGGESTS LIFR CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG COULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE SLOW TO DEVELOP.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 210432
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT FYV/XNA LATE THIS EVENING. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING
THE BVO AREA WITH LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING
TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR PER REASONS DISCUSSED EARLIER. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH FOG LIFTING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINED OVER THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SET UP
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...COOLER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED...WHILE A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO THE SOUTH. EITHER WAY...RH
VALUES OVERNIGHT LOOK TO REACH CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
THUS FOR EVENING UPDATE...WILL ADJUST SKY COVER...UP TO PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO THE ALREADY FOG WORDING IN PLACE OVER FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE REST OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR ANY POSSIBLE FOG HEADLINES.
REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE CLOUD COVER/RECENT RAINFALL HAS
KEPT TEMP/DEW-POINT SPREADS MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WELL BELOW CROSSOVER VALUES AT FYV/XNA WITH
LIMITED MIXING OVERNIGHT. THIS...COUPLED WITH POINT SOUNDINGS
FORECASTING CONSTANT OR INCREASING SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES WITH
HEIGHT THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SUGGESTS LIFR CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG COULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE SLOW TO DEVELOP.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 210202
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINED OVER THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SET UP
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...COOLER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED...WHILE A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO THE SOUTH. EITHER WAY...RH
VALUES OVERNIGHT LOOK TO REACH CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
THUS FOR EVENING UPDATE...WILL ADJUST SKY COVER...UP TO PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO THE ALREADY FOG WORDING IN PLACE OVER FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE REST OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR ANY POSSIBLE FOG HEADLINES.
REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  78  57  77 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   55  80  54  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   57  79  57  78 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   51  78  54  79 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   49  75  49  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   49  72  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   56  78  55  76 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   50  76  51  75 /   0   0   0  10
F10   58  79  58  78 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   56  80  56  77 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 210202
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINED OVER THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SET UP
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...COOLER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED...WHILE A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO THE SOUTH. EITHER WAY...RH
VALUES OVERNIGHT LOOK TO REACH CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
THUS FOR EVENING UPDATE...WILL ADJUST SKY COVER...UP TO PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO THE ALREADY FOG WORDING IN PLACE OVER FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE REST OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR ANY POSSIBLE FOG HEADLINES.
REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  78  57  77 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   55  80  54  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   57  79  57  78 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   51  78  54  79 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   49  75  49  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   49  72  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   56  78  55  76 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   50  76  51  75 /   0   0   0  10
F10   58  79  58  78 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   56  80  56  77 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 210202
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINED OVER THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SET UP
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...COOLER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED...WHILE A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO THE SOUTH. EITHER WAY...RH
VALUES OVERNIGHT LOOK TO REACH CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
THUS FOR EVENING UPDATE...WILL ADJUST SKY COVER...UP TO PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO THE ALREADY FOG WORDING IN PLACE OVER FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE REST OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR ANY POSSIBLE FOG HEADLINES.
REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  78  57  77 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   55  80  54  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   57  79  57  78 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   51  78  54  79 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   49  75  49  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   49  72  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   56  78  55  76 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   50  76  51  75 /   0   0   0  10
F10   58  79  58  78 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   56  80  56  77 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 210202
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINED OVER THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SET UP
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...COOLER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED...WHILE A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO THE SOUTH. EITHER WAY...RH
VALUES OVERNIGHT LOOK TO REACH CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
THUS FOR EVENING UPDATE...WILL ADJUST SKY COVER...UP TO PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO THE ALREADY FOG WORDING IN PLACE OVER FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE REST OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR ANY POSSIBLE FOG HEADLINES.
REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  78  57  77 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   55  80  54  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   57  79  57  78 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   51  78  54  79 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   49  75  49  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   49  72  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   56  78  55  76 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   50  76  51  75 /   0   0   0  10
F10   58  79  58  78 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   56  80  56  77 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....12






000
FXUS64 KOUN 210155
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
855 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TONIGHT. WE CONT TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG
DEELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE STILL NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT...
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT FOR PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE RETREATING FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS SOME MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE NON-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN RECENT
VSBY/SKY CONDITION OBSERVATIONS AT HOBART AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR
IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/26




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210155
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
855 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TONIGHT. WE CONT TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG
DEELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE STILL NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT...
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT FOR PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE RETREATING FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS SOME MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE NON-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN RECENT
VSBY/SKY CONDITION OBSERVATIONS AT HOBART AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR
IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/26



000
FXUS64 KTSA 210002
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
702 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE CLOUD COVER/RECENT RAINFALL HAS
KEPT TEMP/DEW-POINT SPREADS MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WELL BELOW CROSSOVER VALUES AT FYV/XNA WITH
LIMITED MIXING OVERNIGHT. THIS...COUPLED WITH POINT SOUNDINGS
FORECASTING CONSTANT OR INCREASING SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES WITH
HEIGHT THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SUGGESTS LIFR CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG COULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE SLOW TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNINGS RAIN AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVE COMBINED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS AND FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS STEADILY SHIFTED
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...WITH 60+ DEGREE DEW POINTS NOW EXTENDING
INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STILL LOOK GOOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH AREAS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 MOST LIKELY TO SEE RAIN GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER SUPPORT. WITH RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE 16-20C...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S SHOULD BE A GOOD
BET FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AT LEAST. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM
SIDE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 210002
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
702 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE CLOUD COVER/RECENT RAINFALL HAS
KEPT TEMP/DEW-POINT SPREADS MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WELL BELOW CROSSOVER VALUES AT FYV/XNA WITH
LIMITED MIXING OVERNIGHT. THIS...COUPLED WITH POINT SOUNDINGS
FORECASTING CONSTANT OR INCREASING SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES WITH
HEIGHT THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SUGGESTS LIFR CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG COULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE SLOW TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNINGS RAIN AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVE COMBINED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS AND FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS STEADILY SHIFTED
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...WITH 60+ DEGREE DEW POINTS NOW EXTENDING
INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STILL LOOK GOOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH AREAS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 MOST LIKELY TO SEE RAIN GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER SUPPORT. WITH RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE 16-20C...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S SHOULD BE A GOOD
BET FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AT LEAST. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM
SIDE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KOUN 202329 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
629 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS SOME MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE NON-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN RECENT
VSBY/SKY CONDITION OBSERVATIONS AT HOBART AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR
IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 202329 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
629 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS SOME MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE NON-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN RECENT
VSBY/SKY CONDITION OBSERVATIONS AT HOBART AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR
IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 202020
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 202020
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 202020
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 202020
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 202002
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
302 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNINGS RAIN AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVE COMBINED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS AND FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS STEADILY SHIFTED
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...WITH 60+ DEGREE DEW POINTS NOW EXTENDING
INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STILL LOOK GOOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH AREAS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 MOST LIKELY TO SEE RAIN GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER SUPPORT. WITH RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE 16-20C...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S SHOULD BE A GOOD
BET FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AT LEAST. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM
SIDE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  78  57  77 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   55  80  54  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   57  79  57  78 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   51  78  54  79 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   49  75  49  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   49  72  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   56  78  55  76 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   50  76  51  75 /   0   0   0  10
F10   58  79  58  78 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   56  80  56  77 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 202002
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
302 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNINGS RAIN AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVE COMBINED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS AND FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS STEADILY SHIFTED
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...WITH 60+ DEGREE DEW POINTS NOW EXTENDING
INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STILL LOOK GOOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH AREAS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 MOST LIKELY TO SEE RAIN GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER SUPPORT. WITH RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE 16-20C...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S SHOULD BE A GOOD
BET FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AT LEAST. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM
SIDE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  78  57  77 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   55  80  54  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   57  79  57  78 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   51  78  54  79 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   49  75  49  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   49  72  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   56  78  55  76 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   50  76  51  75 /   0   0   0  10
F10   58  79  58  78 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   56  80  56  77 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 202002
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
302 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNINGS RAIN AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVE COMBINED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS AND FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS STEADILY SHIFTED
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...WITH 60+ DEGREE DEW POINTS NOW EXTENDING
INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STILL LOOK GOOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH AREAS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 MOST LIKELY TO SEE RAIN GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER SUPPORT. WITH RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE 16-20C...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S SHOULD BE A GOOD
BET FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AT LEAST. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM
SIDE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  78  57  77 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   55  80  54  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   57  79  57  78 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   51  78  54  79 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   49  75  49  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   49  72  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   56  78  55  76 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   50  76  51  75 /   0   0   0  10
F10   58  79  58  78 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   56  80  56  77 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 202002
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
302 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNINGS RAIN AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVE COMBINED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS AND FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS STEADILY SHIFTED
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...WITH 60+ DEGREE DEW POINTS NOW EXTENDING
INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STILL LOOK GOOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH AREAS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 MOST LIKELY TO SEE RAIN GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER SUPPORT. WITH RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE 16-20C...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S SHOULD BE A GOOD
BET FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AT LEAST. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM
SIDE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  78  57  77 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   55  80  54  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   57  79  57  78 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   51  78  54  79 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   49  75  49  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   49  72  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   56  78  55  76 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   50  76  51  75 /   0   0   0  10
F10   58  79  58  78 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   56  80  56  77 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KOUN 201739
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS NEAR OR BELOW 12 KT TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE EXCEPTION FOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY NEAR HBR...BUT ANY CIGS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL BE
AROUND 050-070. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
MVFR VISBYS AND CIGS MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  80  57  78 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         58  81  57  77 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  82  57  79 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           53  79  53  76 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     54  78  54  78 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  57  78 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 201739
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS NEAR OR BELOW 12 KT TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE EXCEPTION FOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY NEAR HBR...BUT ANY CIGS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL BE
AROUND 050-070. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
MVFR VISBYS AND CIGS MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  80  57  78 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         58  81  57  77 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  82  57  79 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           53  79  53  76 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     54  78  54  78 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  57  78 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03/03



000
FXUS64 KTSA 201718
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1218 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY 18Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MOIST AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH LIMITED
MIXING...LIKELY RESULTING IN FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS IN MANY AREAS
IN THE 09Z-14Z TIME FRAME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A PERIOD
OF LIFR CONDITIONS IN NW ARKANSAS DURING THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN ALL AREAS AFTER 15Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL PV MAX
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OK CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING WITH WANING LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WITH CLOUDS DECREASING AND LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS LEADING TO A WARM AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED POPS EARLIER
THIS MORNING TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AND WILL LIKELY SEND ONE MORE
ONCE SHOWERS MOVE OUT. REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS OR VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KMLC. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
THUNDER AT KTUL AND KRVS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS ACTIVITY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. THE MAV AND MET BOTH HIT ON IFR FOG AT KFYV AND
KXNA FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL INCLUDE AT KFYV TAF WILL DROP KXNA
INTO THE IFR CAT AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDDAY. QUIET WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROF
WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...14









000
FXUS64 KTSA 201718
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1218 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY 18Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MOIST AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH LIMITED
MIXING...LIKELY RESULTING IN FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS IN MANY AREAS
IN THE 09Z-14Z TIME FRAME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A PERIOD
OF LIFR CONDITIONS IN NW ARKANSAS DURING THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN ALL AREAS AFTER 15Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL PV MAX
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OK CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING WITH WANING LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WITH CLOUDS DECREASING AND LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS LEADING TO A WARM AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED POPS EARLIER
THIS MORNING TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AND WILL LIKELY SEND ONE MORE
ONCE SHOWERS MOVE OUT. REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS OR VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KMLC. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
THUNDER AT KTUL AND KRVS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS ACTIVITY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. THE MAV AND MET BOTH HIT ON IFR FOG AT KFYV AND
KXNA FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL INCLUDE AT KFYV TAF WILL DROP KXNA
INTO THE IFR CAT AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDDAY. QUIET WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROF
WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 201543
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1043 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL PV MAX
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OK CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING WITH WANING LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WITH CLOUDS DECREASING AND LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS LEADING TO A WARM AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED POPS EARLIER
THIS MORNING TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AND WILL LIKELY SEND ONE MORE
ONCE SHOWERS MOVE OUT. REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS OR VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KMLC. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
THUNDER AT KTUL AND KRVS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS ACTIVITY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. THE MAV AND MET BOTH HIT ON IFR FOG AT KFYV AND
KXNA FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL INCLUDE AT KFYV TAF WILL DROP KXNA
INTO THE IFR CAT AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDDAY. QUIET WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROF
WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  56  77  54 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   76  56  78  52 /  30  10  10  10
MLC   77  56  78  53 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   78  50  76  50 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   71  47  73  44 /  30  10   0  10
BYV   73  48  72  44 /  30  10   0   0
MKO   76  56  77  52 /  30  10  10  10
MIO   74  47  73  47 /  30   0   0  10
F10   77  57  77  53 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   78  55  78  53 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 201543
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1043 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL PV MAX
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OK CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING WITH WANING LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WITH CLOUDS DECREASING AND LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS LEADING TO A WARM AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED POPS EARLIER
THIS MORNING TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AND WILL LIKELY SEND ONE MORE
ONCE SHOWERS MOVE OUT. REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS OR VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KMLC. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
THUNDER AT KTUL AND KRVS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS ACTIVITY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. THE MAV AND MET BOTH HIT ON IFR FOG AT KFYV AND
KXNA FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL INCLUDE AT KFYV TAF WILL DROP KXNA
INTO THE IFR CAT AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDDAY. QUIET WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROF
WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  56  77  54 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   76  56  78  52 /  30  10  10  10
MLC   77  56  78  53 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   78  50  76  50 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   71  47  73  44 /  30  10   0  10
BYV   73  48  72  44 /  30  10   0   0
MKO   76  56  77  52 /  30  10  10  10
MIO   74  47  73  47 /  30   0   0  10
F10   77  57  77  53 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   78  55  78  53 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....14







000
FXUS64 KOUN 201511
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1011 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THIS MORNINGS HOURLY TEMPS AND POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS FORMED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER PAYNE COUNTY
THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
20/12Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE CLEARING EXPECTED. REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED NEAR AND NORTH OF
STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TOWARD AND
AFTER 01-03Z. MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST AND WILL BE INCLUDED MOST SITES. DENSE FOG
EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SCATTERED WAA SHOWERS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS EAST OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW
OVER NM AND WEST TEXAS LATE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS ACROSS
AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE-35 THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT APPEARS
THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
EAST OF CWA. WEAK FRONT PROGD TO STALL NEAR INTERSTATE-40 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE EFFECT EXPECTED OTHER THAN A WIND
SHIFT...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT. FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MODELS
DEVELOPING SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF RETREATING
FRONT. POPS WILL NOT BE ADDED THIS PACKAGE WITH MEAN RIDGE
POSITION.

LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL PROGD TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY MID-WEEK...YIELDING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO KEEP MORE ENERGY AND COLDER TEMPS
ALOFT FARTHER NORTH AND DECREASING QPF OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. POPS WERE LOWERED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-40 AND ALSO WITH
TREND OF A FASTER PROGRESSION OF TROUGH...POPS WERE DECREASED OR
REMOVED ALTOGETHER THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARMING
TREND AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  80  57 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         82  58  81  57 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           79  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  54  78  54 /  10   0  10  10
DURANT OK         80  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 201144 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
644 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
20/12Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE CLEARING EXPECTED. REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED NEAR AND NORTH OF
STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TOWARD AND
AFTER 01-03Z. MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST AND WILL BE INCLUDED MOST SITES. DENSE FOG
EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SCATTERED WAA SHOWERS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS EAST OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW
OVER NM AND WEST TEXAS LATE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS ACROSS
AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE-35 THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT APPEARS
THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
EAST OF CWA. WEAK FRONT PROGD TO STALL NEAR INTERSTATE-40 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE EFFECT EXPECTED OTHER THAN A WIND
SHIFT...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT. FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MODELS
DEVELOPING SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF RETREATING
FRONT. POPS WILL NOT BE ADDED THIS PACKAGE WITH MEAN RIDGE
POSITION.

LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL PROGD TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY MID-WEEK...YIELDING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO KEEP MORE ENERGY AND COLDER TEMPS
ALOFT FARTHER NORTH AND DECREASING QPF OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. POPS WERE LOWERED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-40 AND ALSO WITH
TREND OF A FASTER PROGRESSION OF TROUGH...POPS WERE DECREASED OR
REMOVED ALTOGETHER THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARMING
TREND AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  80  57 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         82  58  81  57 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           79  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  54  78  54 /  10   0  10  10
DURANT OK         80  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/99/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 201144 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
644 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
20/12Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE CLEARING EXPECTED. REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED NEAR AND NORTH OF
STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TOWARD AND
AFTER 01-03Z. MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST AND WILL BE INCLUDED MOST SITES. DENSE FOG
EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SCATTERED WAA SHOWERS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS EAST OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW
OVER NM AND WEST TEXAS LATE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS ACROSS
AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE-35 THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT APPEARS
THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
EAST OF CWA. WEAK FRONT PROGD TO STALL NEAR INTERSTATE-40 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE EFFECT EXPECTED OTHER THAN A WIND
SHIFT...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT. FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MODELS
DEVELOPING SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF RETREATING
FRONT. POPS WILL NOT BE ADDED THIS PACKAGE WITH MEAN RIDGE
POSITION.

LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL PROGD TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY MID-WEEK...YIELDING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO KEEP MORE ENERGY AND COLDER TEMPS
ALOFT FARTHER NORTH AND DECREASING QPF OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. POPS WERE LOWERED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-40 AND ALSO WITH
TREND OF A FASTER PROGRESSION OF TROUGH...POPS WERE DECREASED OR
REMOVED ALTOGETHER THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARMING
TREND AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  80  57 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         82  58  81  57 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           79  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  54  78  54 /  10   0  10  10
DURANT OK         80  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/99/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 201033
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
533 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS OR VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KMLC. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
THUNDER AT KTUL AND KRVS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS ACTIVITY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. THE MAV AND MET BOTH HIT ON IFR FOG AT KFYV AND
KXNA FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL INCLUDE AT KFYV TAF WILL DROP KXNA
INTO THE IFR CAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDDAY. QUIET WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROF
WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KOUN 200933
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
433 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SCATTERED WAA SHOWERS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS EAST OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW
OVER NM AND WEST TEXAS LATE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS ACROSS
AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE-35 THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT APPEARS
THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
EAST OF CWA. WEAK FRONT PROGD TO STALL NEAR INTERSTATE-40 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE EFFECT EXPECTED OTHER THAN A WIND
SHIFT...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT. FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MODELS
DEVELOPING SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF RETREATING
FRONT. POPS WILL NOT BE ADDED THIS PACKAGE WITH MEAN RIDGE
POSITION.

LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL PROGD TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY MID-WEEK...YIELDING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO KEEP MORE ENERGY AND COLDER TEMPS
ALOFT FARTHER NORTH AND DECREASING QPF OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. POPS WERE LOWERED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-40 AND ALSO WITH
TREND OF A FASTER PROGRESSION OF TROUGH...POPS WERE DECREASED OR
REMOVED ALTOGETHER THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARMING
TREND AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  80  57 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         82  58  81  57 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           79  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  54  78  54 /  10   0  10  10
DURANT OK         80  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 200933
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
433 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SCATTERED WAA SHOWERS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS EAST OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW
OVER NM AND WEST TEXAS LATE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS ACROSS
AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE-35 THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT APPEARS
THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
EAST OF CWA. WEAK FRONT PROGD TO STALL NEAR INTERSTATE-40 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE EFFECT EXPECTED OTHER THAN A WIND
SHIFT...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT. FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MODELS
DEVELOPING SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF RETREATING
FRONT. POPS WILL NOT BE ADDED THIS PACKAGE WITH MEAN RIDGE
POSITION.

LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL PROGD TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY MID-WEEK...YIELDING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO KEEP MORE ENERGY AND COLDER TEMPS
ALOFT FARTHER NORTH AND DECREASING QPF OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. POPS WERE LOWERED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-40 AND ALSO WITH
TREND OF A FASTER PROGRESSION OF TROUGH...POPS WERE DECREASED OR
REMOVED ALTOGETHER THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARMING
TREND AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  80  57 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         82  58  81  57 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           79  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  54  78  54 /  10   0  10  10
DURANT OK         80  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 200933
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
433 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SCATTERED WAA SHOWERS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS EAST OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW
OVER NM AND WEST TEXAS LATE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS ACROSS
AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE-35 THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT APPEARS
THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
EAST OF CWA. WEAK FRONT PROGD TO STALL NEAR INTERSTATE-40 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE EFFECT EXPECTED OTHER THAN A WIND
SHIFT...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT. FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MODELS
DEVELOPING SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF RETREATING
FRONT. POPS WILL NOT BE ADDED THIS PACKAGE WITH MEAN RIDGE
POSITION.

LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL PROGD TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY MID-WEEK...YIELDING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO KEEP MORE ENERGY AND COLDER TEMPS
ALOFT FARTHER NORTH AND DECREASING QPF OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. POPS WERE LOWERED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-40 AND ALSO WITH
TREND OF A FASTER PROGRESSION OF TROUGH...POPS WERE DECREASED OR
REMOVED ALTOGETHER THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARMING
TREND AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  80  57 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         82  58  81  57 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           79  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  54  78  54 /  10   0  10  10
DURANT OK         80  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 200933
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
433 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SCATTERED WAA SHOWERS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS EAST OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW
OVER NM AND WEST TEXAS LATE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS ACROSS
AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE-35 THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT APPEARS
THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
EAST OF CWA. WEAK FRONT PROGD TO STALL NEAR INTERSTATE-40 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE EFFECT EXPECTED OTHER THAN A WIND
SHIFT...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT. FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MODELS
DEVELOPING SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF RETREATING
FRONT. POPS WILL NOT BE ADDED THIS PACKAGE WITH MEAN RIDGE
POSITION.

LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL PROGD TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY MID-WEEK...YIELDING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO KEEP MORE ENERGY AND COLDER TEMPS
ALOFT FARTHER NORTH AND DECREASING QPF OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. POPS WERE LOWERED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-40 AND ALSO WITH
TREND OF A FASTER PROGRESSION OF TROUGH...POPS WERE DECREASED OR
REMOVED ALTOGETHER THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARMING
TREND AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  80  57 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         82  58  81  57 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           79  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  54  78  54 /  10   0  10  10
DURANT OK         80  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 200923
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
423 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDDAY. QUIET WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROF
WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  56  77  54 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   76  56  78  52 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   77  56  78  53 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   78  50  76  50 /  20  10  10  10
FYV   71  47  73  44 /  20  10   0  10
BYV   73  48  72  44 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   76  56  77  52 /  20  10  10  10
MIO   73  47  73  47 /  20   0   0  10
F10   77  57  77  53 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   78  55  78  53 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 200923
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
423 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDDAY. QUIET WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROF
WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  56  77  54 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   76  56  78  52 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   77  56  78  53 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   78  50  76  50 /  20  10  10  10
FYV   71  47  73  44 /  20  10   0  10
BYV   73  48  72  44 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   76  56  77  52 /  20  10  10  10
MIO   73  47  73  47 /  20   0   0  10
F10   77  57  77  53 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   78  55  78  53 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 200923
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
423 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDDAY. QUIET WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROF
WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  56  77  54 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   76  56  78  52 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   77  56  78  53 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   78  50  76  50 /  20  10  10  10
FYV   71  47  73  44 /  20  10   0  10
BYV   73  48  72  44 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   76  56  77  52 /  20  10  10  10
MIO   73  47  73  47 /  20   0   0  10
F10   77  57  77  53 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   78  55  78  53 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 200923
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
423 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDDAY. QUIET WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROF
WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  56  77  54 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   76  56  78  52 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   77  56  78  53 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   78  50  76  50 /  20  10  10  10
FYV   71  47  73  44 /  20  10   0  10
BYV   73  48  72  44 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   76  56  77  52 /  20  10  10  10
MIO   73  47  73  47 /  20   0   0  10
F10   77  57  77  53 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   78  55  78  53 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 200454
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL... WITH
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM AT NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES THIS MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES DURING THE MORNING AS
WELL. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WERE MOVING
EASTWARD ALONG THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A 20KT LLJ SETS UP OVER
THE CWA...AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING WITHIN WEST
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LATEST LOCAL IN-HOUSE MODEL RUNS
AND ALSO THE HRRR HAVE BEEN INDICATING A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF ANY PRECIP THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM SHOWS
THE LLJ DEVELOPING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. THUS...HAVE
EXTENDED POPS SOUTHWARD AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
WELL...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY AS PRECIP DEVELOPS
AND THUS KEEPING TEMPS WARMER OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 200454
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL... WITH
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM AT NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES THIS MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES DURING THE MORNING AS
WELL. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WERE MOVING
EASTWARD ALONG THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A 20KT LLJ SETS UP OVER
THE CWA...AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING WITHIN WEST
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LATEST LOCAL IN-HOUSE MODEL RUNS
AND ALSO THE HRRR HAVE BEEN INDICATING A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF ANY PRECIP THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM SHOWS
THE LLJ DEVELOPING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. THUS...HAVE
EXTENDED POPS SOUTHWARD AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
WELL...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY AS PRECIP DEVELOPS
AND THUS KEEPING TEMPS WARMER OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 200208
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
908 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WERE MOVING
EASTWARD ALONG THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A 20KT LLJ SETS UP OVER
THE CWA...AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING WITHIN WEST
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LATEST LOCAL IN-HOUSE MODEL RUNS
AND ALSO THE HRRR HAVE BEEN INDICATING A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF ANY PRECIP THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM SHOWS
THE LLJ DEVELOPING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. THUS...HAVE
EXTENDED POPS SOUTHWARD AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
WELL...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY AS PRECIP DEVELOPS
AND THUS KEEPING TEMPS WARMER OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  78  56  79 /  30  20  10  10
FSM   51  75  55  77 /   0  20  10  10
MLC   53  77  56  79 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   53  78  51  77 /  30  20  10  10
FYV   49  73  47  73 /  20  20  10  10
BYV   50  72  48  72 /  20  20  10   0
MKO   52  77  55  78 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   53  74  51  75 /  30  20  10   0
F10   54  78  57  78 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   52  78  56  80 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 200208
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
908 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WERE MOVING
EASTWARD ALONG THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A 20KT LLJ SETS UP OVER
THE CWA...AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING WITHIN WEST
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LATEST LOCAL IN-HOUSE MODEL RUNS
AND ALSO THE HRRR HAVE BEEN INDICATING A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF ANY PRECIP THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM SHOWS
THE LLJ DEVELOPING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. THUS...HAVE
EXTENDED POPS SOUTHWARD AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
WELL...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY AS PRECIP DEVELOPS
AND THUS KEEPING TEMPS WARMER OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  78  56  79 /  30  20  10  10
FSM   51  75  55  77 /   0  20  10  10
MLC   53  77  56  79 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   53  78  51  77 /  30  20  10  10
FYV   49  73  47  73 /  20  20  10  10
BYV   50  72  48  72 /  20  20  10   0
MKO   52  77  55  78 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   53  74  51  75 /  30  20  10   0
F10   54  78  57  78 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   52  78  56  80 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20





000
FXUS64 KOUN 192315
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT LOWER CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT. WILL START WITH
SOME SCATTERED 4-5KFT THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CEILINGS AT THIS HEIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN NC/C OK LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING... BUT CHANCES AT THIS POINT REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAF. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR...SUGGESTED A
LIGHT QPF SIGNAL THAT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST OF A ALVA TO WEATHERFORD
TO ADA LINE. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND THE APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE...SO
KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. FIRST DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR NEAR ENID AND PONCA CITY SOMEWHERE IN THE 7 TO 11 PM
TIME FRAME...THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OKLAHOMA CITY METRO COULD BE AFFECTED AFTER 2 AM.

SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...BUT NOT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY MORNING...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER NEAR A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR I-40...MAINLY
EAST OF OF EL RENO.

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...THOUGH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO WARM AND RATHER HUMID FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THINK CAPPING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A ONE TO
TWO STORMS FORMED NEARLY ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AS A WEAK RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODELS SEEMED TO BE
HINTING AT PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH MUCH OF RAIN
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  81  57  80 /  20  20  10  10
HOBART OK         56  83  58  81 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  83  58  83 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           52  80  51  80 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  53  79 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         52  80  58  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 192315
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT LOWER CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT. WILL START WITH
SOME SCATTERED 4-5KFT THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CEILINGS AT THIS HEIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN NC/C OK LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING... BUT CHANCES AT THIS POINT REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAF. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR...SUGGESTED A
LIGHT QPF SIGNAL THAT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST OF A ALVA TO WEATHERFORD
TO ADA LINE. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND THE APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE...SO
KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. FIRST DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR NEAR ENID AND PONCA CITY SOMEWHERE IN THE 7 TO 11 PM
TIME FRAME...THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OKLAHOMA CITY METRO COULD BE AFFECTED AFTER 2 AM.

SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...BUT NOT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY MORNING...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER NEAR A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR I-40...MAINLY
EAST OF OF EL RENO.

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...THOUGH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO WARM AND RATHER HUMID FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THINK CAPPING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A ONE TO
TWO STORMS FORMED NEARLY ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AS A WEAK RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODELS SEEMED TO BE
HINTING AT PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH MUCH OF RAIN
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  81  57  80 /  20  20  10  10
HOBART OK         56  83  58  81 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  83  58  83 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           52  80  51  80 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  53  79 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         52  80  58  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 192315
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT LOWER CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT. WILL START WITH
SOME SCATTERED 4-5KFT THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CEILINGS AT THIS HEIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN NC/C OK LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING... BUT CHANCES AT THIS POINT REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAF. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR...SUGGESTED A
LIGHT QPF SIGNAL THAT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST OF A ALVA TO WEATHERFORD
TO ADA LINE. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND THE APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE...SO
KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. FIRST DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR NEAR ENID AND PONCA CITY SOMEWHERE IN THE 7 TO 11 PM
TIME FRAME...THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OKLAHOMA CITY METRO COULD BE AFFECTED AFTER 2 AM.

SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...BUT NOT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY MORNING...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER NEAR A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR I-40...MAINLY
EAST OF OF EL RENO.

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...THOUGH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO WARM AND RATHER HUMID FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THINK CAPPING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A ONE TO
TWO STORMS FORMED NEARLY ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AS A WEAK RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODELS SEEMED TO BE
HINTING AT PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH MUCH OF RAIN
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  81  57  80 /  20  20  10  10
HOBART OK         56  83  58  81 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  83  58  83 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           52  80  51  80 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  53  79 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         52  80  58  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 192315
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT LOWER CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT. WILL START WITH
SOME SCATTERED 4-5KFT THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CEILINGS AT THIS HEIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN NC/C OK LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING... BUT CHANCES AT THIS POINT REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAF. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR...SUGGESTED A
LIGHT QPF SIGNAL THAT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST OF A ALVA TO WEATHERFORD
TO ADA LINE. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND THE APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE...SO
KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. FIRST DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR NEAR ENID AND PONCA CITY SOMEWHERE IN THE 7 TO 11 PM
TIME FRAME...THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OKLAHOMA CITY METRO COULD BE AFFECTED AFTER 2 AM.

SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...BUT NOT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY MORNING...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER NEAR A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR I-40...MAINLY
EAST OF OF EL RENO.

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...THOUGH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO WARM AND RATHER HUMID FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THINK CAPPING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A ONE TO
TWO STORMS FORMED NEARLY ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AS A WEAK RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODELS SEEMED TO BE
HINTING AT PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH MUCH OF RAIN
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  81  57  80 /  20  20  10  10
HOBART OK         56  83  58  81 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  83  58  83 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           52  80  51  80 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  53  79 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         52  80  58  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 192315
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT LOWER CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT. WILL START WITH
SOME SCATTERED 4-5KFT THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CEILINGS AT THIS HEIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN NC/C OK LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING... BUT CHANCES AT THIS POINT REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAF. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR...SUGGESTED A
LIGHT QPF SIGNAL THAT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST OF A ALVA TO WEATHERFORD
TO ADA LINE. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND THE APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE...SO
KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. FIRST DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR NEAR ENID AND PONCA CITY SOMEWHERE IN THE 7 TO 11 PM
TIME FRAME...THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OKLAHOMA CITY METRO COULD BE AFFECTED AFTER 2 AM.

SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...BUT NOT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY MORNING...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER NEAR A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR I-40...MAINLY
EAST OF OF EL RENO.

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...THOUGH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO WARM AND RATHER HUMID FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THINK CAPPING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A ONE TO
TWO STORMS FORMED NEARLY ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AS A WEAK RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODELS SEEMED TO BE
HINTING AT PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH MUCH OF RAIN
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  81  57  80 /  20  20  10  10
HOBART OK         56  83  58  81 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  83  58  83 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           52  80  51  80 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  53  79 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         52  80  58  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 192315
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT LOWER CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT. WILL START WITH
SOME SCATTERED 4-5KFT THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CEILINGS AT THIS HEIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN NC/C OK LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING... BUT CHANCES AT THIS POINT REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAF. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR...SUGGESTED A
LIGHT QPF SIGNAL THAT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST OF A ALVA TO WEATHERFORD
TO ADA LINE. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND THE APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE...SO
KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. FIRST DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR NEAR ENID AND PONCA CITY SOMEWHERE IN THE 7 TO 11 PM
TIME FRAME...THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OKLAHOMA CITY METRO COULD BE AFFECTED AFTER 2 AM.

SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...BUT NOT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY MORNING...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER NEAR A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR I-40...MAINLY
EAST OF OF EL RENO.

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...THOUGH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO WARM AND RATHER HUMID FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THINK CAPPING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A ONE TO
TWO STORMS FORMED NEARLY ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AS A WEAK RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODELS SEEMED TO BE
HINTING AT PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH MUCH OF RAIN
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  81  57  80 /  20  20  10  10
HOBART OK         56  83  58  81 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  83  58  83 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           52  80  51  80 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  53  79 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         52  80  58  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 192309
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL... WITH
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES FOR A PORTION OF THE MORNING AS
WELL. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

VORTICITY MAX THAT MOVED EASTWARD ALONG THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY HAS LARGELY MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE AND DIMINISHING CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT IN CHECK THIS EVENING...WITH BETTER CHANCES
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS TODAYS VORTICITY MAX MOVES FARTHER FROM
THE REGION. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75 LIKELY TO APPROACH 80. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE RIDGE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST.

THE NEXT BIG FORECAST CHANGE WILL ARRIVE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN RESPONSE
TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING WEST OF HIGHWAY 75...SPREADING INTO MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH. WITH THE STUBBORN UPPER LOW IN THE
NORTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME SEEMING TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH...HAVE ELECTED TO BRING HIGHER POPS
FARTHER SOUTH IN A HEDGE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SHOULD ALSO
RESULT IN AT LEAST SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THINGS FINALLY CLEAR OUT.

QUIET WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO CONSERVATIVE ON THE
WARMUP...AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
FORECASTS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 192309
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL... WITH
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES FOR A PORTION OF THE MORNING AS
WELL. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

VORTICITY MAX THAT MOVED EASTWARD ALONG THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY HAS LARGELY MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE AND DIMINISHING CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT IN CHECK THIS EVENING...WITH BETTER CHANCES
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS TODAYS VORTICITY MAX MOVES FARTHER FROM
THE REGION. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75 LIKELY TO APPROACH 80. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE RIDGE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST.

THE NEXT BIG FORECAST CHANGE WILL ARRIVE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN RESPONSE
TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING WEST OF HIGHWAY 75...SPREADING INTO MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH. WITH THE STUBBORN UPPER LOW IN THE
NORTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME SEEMING TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH...HAVE ELECTED TO BRING HIGHER POPS
FARTHER SOUTH IN A HEDGE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SHOULD ALSO
RESULT IN AT LEAST SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THINGS FINALLY CLEAR OUT.

QUIET WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO CONSERVATIVE ON THE
WARMUP...AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
FORECASTS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 192309
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL... WITH
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES FOR A PORTION OF THE MORNING AS
WELL. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

VORTICITY MAX THAT MOVED EASTWARD ALONG THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY HAS LARGELY MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE AND DIMINISHING CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT IN CHECK THIS EVENING...WITH BETTER CHANCES
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS TODAYS VORTICITY MAX MOVES FARTHER FROM
THE REGION. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75 LIKELY TO APPROACH 80. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE RIDGE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST.

THE NEXT BIG FORECAST CHANGE WILL ARRIVE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN RESPONSE
TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING WEST OF HIGHWAY 75...SPREADING INTO MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH. WITH THE STUBBORN UPPER LOW IN THE
NORTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME SEEMING TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH...HAVE ELECTED TO BRING HIGHER POPS
FARTHER SOUTH IN A HEDGE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SHOULD ALSO
RESULT IN AT LEAST SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THINGS FINALLY CLEAR OUT.

QUIET WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO CONSERVATIVE ON THE
WARMUP...AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
FORECASTS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 192309
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL... WITH
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES FOR A PORTION OF THE MORNING AS
WELL. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

VORTICITY MAX THAT MOVED EASTWARD ALONG THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY HAS LARGELY MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE AND DIMINISHING CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT IN CHECK THIS EVENING...WITH BETTER CHANCES
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS TODAYS VORTICITY MAX MOVES FARTHER FROM
THE REGION. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75 LIKELY TO APPROACH 80. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE RIDGE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST.

THE NEXT BIG FORECAST CHANGE WILL ARRIVE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN RESPONSE
TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING WEST OF HIGHWAY 75...SPREADING INTO MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH. WITH THE STUBBORN UPPER LOW IN THE
NORTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME SEEMING TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH...HAVE ELECTED TO BRING HIGHER POPS
FARTHER SOUTH IN A HEDGE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SHOULD ALSO
RESULT IN AT LEAST SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THINGS FINALLY CLEAR OUT.

QUIET WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO CONSERVATIVE ON THE
WARMUP...AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
FORECASTS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 192031
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
331 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

VORTICITY MAX THAT MOVED EASTWARD ALONG THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY HAS LARGELY MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE AND DIMINISHING CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT IN CHECK THIS EVENING...WITH BETTER CHANCES
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS TODAYS VORTICITY MAX MOVES FARTHER FROM
THE REGION. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75 LIKELY TO APPROACH 80. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE RIDGE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST.

THE NEXT BIG FORECAST CHANGE WILL ARRIVE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN RESPONSE
TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING WEST OF HIGHWAY 75...SPREADING INTO MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH. WITH THE STUBBORN UPPER LOW IN THE
NORTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME SEEMING TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH...HAVE ELECTED TO BRING HIGHER POPS
FARTHER SOUTH IN A HEDGE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SHOULD ALSO
RESULT IN AT LEAST SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THINGS FINALLY CLEAR OUT.

QUIET WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO CONSERVATIVE ON THE
WARMUP...AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  78  56  79 /  30  20  10  10
FSM   51  75  55  77 /   0  20  10  10
MLC   53  77  56  79 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   53  78  51  77 /  30  20  10  10
FYV   49  73  47  73 /  10  20  10  10
BYV   50  72  48  72 /  10  20  10   0
MKO   52  77  55  78 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   53  74  51  75 /  30  20  10   0
F10   54  78  57  78 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   52  78  56  80 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 192031
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
331 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

VORTICITY MAX THAT MOVED EASTWARD ALONG THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY HAS LARGELY MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE AND DIMINISHING CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT IN CHECK THIS EVENING...WITH BETTER CHANCES
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS TODAYS VORTICITY MAX MOVES FARTHER FROM
THE REGION. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75 LIKELY TO APPROACH 80. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE RIDGE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST.

THE NEXT BIG FORECAST CHANGE WILL ARRIVE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN RESPONSE
TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING WEST OF HIGHWAY 75...SPREADING INTO MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH. WITH THE STUBBORN UPPER LOW IN THE
NORTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME SEEMING TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH...HAVE ELECTED TO BRING HIGHER POPS
FARTHER SOUTH IN A HEDGE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SHOULD ALSO
RESULT IN AT LEAST SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THINGS FINALLY CLEAR OUT.

QUIET WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO CONSERVATIVE ON THE
WARMUP...AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  78  56  79 /  30  20  10  10
FSM   51  75  55  77 /   0  20  10  10
MLC   53  77  56  79 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   53  78  51  77 /  30  20  10  10
FYV   49  73  47  73 /  10  20  10  10
BYV   50  72  48  72 /  10  20  10   0
MKO   52  77  55  78 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   53  74  51  75 /  30  20  10   0
F10   54  78  57  78 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   52  78  56  80 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KOUN 191952
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR...SUGGESTED A
LIGHT QPF SIGNAL THAT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST OF A ALVA TO WEATHERFORD
TO ADA LINE. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND THE APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE...SO
KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. FIRST DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR NEAR ENID AND PONCA CITY SOMEWHERE IN THE 7 TO 11 PM
TIME FRAME...THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OKLAHOMA CITY METRO COULD BE AFFECTED AFTER 2 AM.

SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...BUT NOT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY MORNING...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER NEAR A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR I-40...MAINLY
EAST OF OF EL RENO.

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...THOUGH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO WARM AND RATHER HUMID FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THINK CAPPING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A ONE TO
TWO STORMS FORMED NEARLY ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AS A WEAK RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODELS SEEMED TO BE
HINTING AT PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH MUCH OF RAIN
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  81  57  80 /  20  20  10  10
HOBART OK         56  83  58  81 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  83  58  83 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           52  80  51  80 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  53  79 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         52  80  58  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 191952
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR...SUGGESTED A
LIGHT QPF SIGNAL THAT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST OF A ALVA TO WEATHERFORD
TO ADA LINE. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND THE APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE...SO
KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. FIRST DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR NEAR ENID AND PONCA CITY SOMEWHERE IN THE 7 TO 11 PM
TIME FRAME...THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OKLAHOMA CITY METRO COULD BE AFFECTED AFTER 2 AM.

SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...BUT NOT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY MORNING...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER NEAR A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR I-40...MAINLY
EAST OF OF EL RENO.

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...THOUGH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO WARM AND RATHER HUMID FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THINK CAPPING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A ONE TO
TWO STORMS FORMED NEARLY ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AS A WEAK RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODELS SEEMED TO BE
HINTING AT PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH MUCH OF RAIN
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  81  57  80 /  20  20  10  10
HOBART OK         56  83  58  81 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  83  58  83 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           52  80  51  80 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  53  79 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         52  80  58  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 191744
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
19/18Z TAFS...CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER TODAY.
AS A RESULT...MOST SITES WILL CONTINUE OR DEVELOP BKN CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CEILINGS TO STAY GENERALLY
VFR...THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVRF ARE POSSIBLE. OPTED TO KEEP
PROB30 AT KPNC FOR -TSRA. REMOVED PROB30 FOR KOKC AND KOUN AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THESE TAF SITES. WINDS
MAY VEER...ESPECIALLY AT KGAG AND KWWR...TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS A BOUNDARY APPROACHES NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
19/12Z TAFS...WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF FORECAST VFR THIS ISSUANCE
ALTHOUGH CIGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST ABOVE MVFR FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY AS MOISTURE IN THE 3 TO 6 KFT LAYER INCREASES FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KSPS NORTHEAST
TOWARD KOKC AND KPNC THIS MORNING. WILL CONFINE MENTION OF VCSH
TO KPNC. MORE ORGANIZED RAIN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE TOWARD AND AFTER
06Z AND MAINLY AFFECT KPNC DOWN TO KOKC/KOUN. WILL LEAVE MENTION
OF TSRA OUT FOR THIS FORECAST BUT WILL INCLUDE PROB30 FOR -SHRA
AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AS COMPACT
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL ALSO MENTION
SPRINKLES AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING IN PART TO MENTION UPPER LOW. MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND PROVIDE
A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF STORM OR TWO MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL FOR RAIN IS
WEAK...IT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN ALL MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF OKC.

BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS
BUT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE UNLIKELY. ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE SIMILAR ON TIMING AND INITIAL IMPACTS OF THIS WAVE...DETAILS
DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WAVE. DPROG/DT
WOULD INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION IMPACTS WOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA FRIDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  55  82  57 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         75  56  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  57  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           78  52  81  51 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  55  80  54 /  10  40  30  10
DURANT OK         74  53  80  58 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/06/10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 191744
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
19/18Z TAFS...CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER TODAY.
AS A RESULT...MOST SITES WILL CONTINUE OR DEVELOP BKN CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CEILINGS TO STAY GENERALLY
VFR...THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVRF ARE POSSIBLE. OPTED TO KEEP
PROB30 AT KPNC FOR -TSRA. REMOVED PROB30 FOR KOKC AND KOUN AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THESE TAF SITES. WINDS
MAY VEER...ESPECIALLY AT KGAG AND KWWR...TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS A BOUNDARY APPROACHES NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
19/12Z TAFS...WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF FORECAST VFR THIS ISSUANCE
ALTHOUGH CIGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST ABOVE MVFR FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY AS MOISTURE IN THE 3 TO 6 KFT LAYER INCREASES FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KSPS NORTHEAST
TOWARD KOKC AND KPNC THIS MORNING. WILL CONFINE MENTION OF VCSH
TO KPNC. MORE ORGANIZED RAIN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE TOWARD AND AFTER
06Z AND MAINLY AFFECT KPNC DOWN TO KOKC/KOUN. WILL LEAVE MENTION
OF TSRA OUT FOR THIS FORECAST BUT WILL INCLUDE PROB30 FOR -SHRA
AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AS COMPACT
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL ALSO MENTION
SPRINKLES AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING IN PART TO MENTION UPPER LOW. MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND PROVIDE
A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF STORM OR TWO MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL FOR RAIN IS
WEAK...IT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN ALL MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF OKC.

BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS
BUT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE UNLIKELY. ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE SIMILAR ON TIMING AND INITIAL IMPACTS OF THIS WAVE...DETAILS
DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WAVE. DPROG/DT
WOULD INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION IMPACTS WOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA FRIDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  55  82  57 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         75  56  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  57  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           78  52  81  51 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  55  80  54 /  10  40  30  10
DURANT OK         74  53  80  58 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/06/10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 191744
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
19/18Z TAFS...CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER TODAY.
AS A RESULT...MOST SITES WILL CONTINUE OR DEVELOP BKN CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CEILINGS TO STAY GENERALLY
VFR...THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVRF ARE POSSIBLE. OPTED TO KEEP
PROB30 AT KPNC FOR -TSRA. REMOVED PROB30 FOR KOKC AND KOUN AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THESE TAF SITES. WINDS
MAY VEER...ESPECIALLY AT KGAG AND KWWR...TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS A BOUNDARY APPROACHES NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
19/12Z TAFS...WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF FORECAST VFR THIS ISSUANCE
ALTHOUGH CIGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST ABOVE MVFR FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY AS MOISTURE IN THE 3 TO 6 KFT LAYER INCREASES FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KSPS NORTHEAST
TOWARD KOKC AND KPNC THIS MORNING. WILL CONFINE MENTION OF VCSH
TO KPNC. MORE ORGANIZED RAIN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE TOWARD AND AFTER
06Z AND MAINLY AFFECT KPNC DOWN TO KOKC/KOUN. WILL LEAVE MENTION
OF TSRA OUT FOR THIS FORECAST BUT WILL INCLUDE PROB30 FOR -SHRA
AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AS COMPACT
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL ALSO MENTION
SPRINKLES AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING IN PART TO MENTION UPPER LOW. MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND PROVIDE
A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF STORM OR TWO MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL FOR RAIN IS
WEAK...IT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN ALL MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF OKC.

BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS
BUT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE UNLIKELY. ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE SIMILAR ON TIMING AND INITIAL IMPACTS OF THIS WAVE...DETAILS
DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WAVE. DPROG/DT
WOULD INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION IMPACTS WOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA FRIDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  55  82  57 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         75  56  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  57  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           78  52  81  51 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  55  80  54 /  10  40  30  10
DURANT OK         74  53  80  58 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/06/10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 191744
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
19/18Z TAFS...CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER TODAY.
AS A RESULT...MOST SITES WILL CONTINUE OR DEVELOP BKN CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CEILINGS TO STAY GENERALLY
VFR...THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVRF ARE POSSIBLE. OPTED TO KEEP
PROB30 AT KPNC FOR -TSRA. REMOVED PROB30 FOR KOKC AND KOUN AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THESE TAF SITES. WINDS
MAY VEER...ESPECIALLY AT KGAG AND KWWR...TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS A BOUNDARY APPROACHES NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
19/12Z TAFS...WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF FORECAST VFR THIS ISSUANCE
ALTHOUGH CIGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST ABOVE MVFR FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY AS MOISTURE IN THE 3 TO 6 KFT LAYER INCREASES FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KSPS NORTHEAST
TOWARD KOKC AND KPNC THIS MORNING. WILL CONFINE MENTION OF VCSH
TO KPNC. MORE ORGANIZED RAIN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE TOWARD AND AFTER
06Z AND MAINLY AFFECT KPNC DOWN TO KOKC/KOUN. WILL LEAVE MENTION
OF TSRA OUT FOR THIS FORECAST BUT WILL INCLUDE PROB30 FOR -SHRA
AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AS COMPACT
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL ALSO MENTION
SPRINKLES AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING IN PART TO MENTION UPPER LOW. MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND PROVIDE
A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF STORM OR TWO MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL FOR RAIN IS
WEAK...IT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN ALL MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF OKC.

BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS
BUT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE UNLIKELY. ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE SIMILAR ON TIMING AND INITIAL IMPACTS OF THIS WAVE...DETAILS
DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WAVE. DPROG/DT
WOULD INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION IMPACTS WOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA FRIDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  55  82  57 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         75  56  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  57  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           78  52  81  51 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  55  80  54 /  10  40  30  10
DURANT OK         74  53  80  58 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/06/10



000
FXUS64 KTSA 191725
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AT MOST OF
THE TAF SITES. INCREASING LOW LVL WARM ADV TNGT WILL LOWER
CIGS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHRA...POSSIBLY EVEN ISOLD
TSRA...ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR AFT 03Z THRU ROUGHLY 15Z MONDAY
MORNING. NW AR SITES WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS MON MORNING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING. A
PAIR OF UPPER LOWS HAVE BEEN TRAVERSING BENEATH THE WESTERN RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS NOW
MOVING EAST ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE MID CLOUD TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO REACH INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RISES ALREADY SEEN
THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTER IS SLIDING EAST OF OUR AREA
WITH TIME...AND THUS SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED. THE LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL GET GOING AFT 00Z THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
TULSA. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
DROP INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG AT KFYV
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO ADDED AT PROB30 GROUP
FOR THE FINAL SIX HOURS AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TAF SITES
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AS WEAK IMPULSE
OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TRAVERSES THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...IN ZONE OF MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  79  57  78 /  30  20  20  20
FSM   52  75  55  76 /  10  20  10  10
MLC   53  76  56  79 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   52  79  52  76 /  30  20  20  20
FYV   48  74  47  73 /  10  20  20  20
BYV   50  73  49  72 /  10  20  20  20
MKO   51  77  55  77 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   52  74  53  74 /  30  20  20  20
F10   53  78  56  78 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   53  77  56  79 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 191725
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AT MOST OF
THE TAF SITES. INCREASING LOW LVL WARM ADV TNGT WILL LOWER
CIGS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHRA...POSSIBLY EVEN ISOLD
TSRA...ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR AFT 03Z THRU ROUGHLY 15Z MONDAY
MORNING. NW AR SITES WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS MON MORNING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING. A
PAIR OF UPPER LOWS HAVE BEEN TRAVERSING BENEATH THE WESTERN RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS NOW
MOVING EAST ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE MID CLOUD TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO REACH INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RISES ALREADY SEEN
THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTER IS SLIDING EAST OF OUR AREA
WITH TIME...AND THUS SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED. THE LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL GET GOING AFT 00Z THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
TULSA. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
DROP INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG AT KFYV
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO ADDED AT PROB30 GROUP
FOR THE FINAL SIX HOURS AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TAF SITES
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AS WEAK IMPULSE
OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TRAVERSES THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...IN ZONE OF MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  79  57  78 /  30  20  20  20
FSM   52  75  55  76 /  10  20  10  10
MLC   53  76  56  79 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   52  79  52  76 /  30  20  20  20
FYV   48  74  47  73 /  10  20  20  20
BYV   50  73  49  72 /  10  20  20  20
MKO   51  77  55  77 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   52  74  53  74 /  30  20  20  20
F10   53  78  56  78 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   53  77  56  79 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 191725
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AT MOST OF
THE TAF SITES. INCREASING LOW LVL WARM ADV TNGT WILL LOWER
CIGS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHRA...POSSIBLY EVEN ISOLD
TSRA...ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR AFT 03Z THRU ROUGHLY 15Z MONDAY
MORNING. NW AR SITES WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS MON MORNING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING. A
PAIR OF UPPER LOWS HAVE BEEN TRAVERSING BENEATH THE WESTERN RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS NOW
MOVING EAST ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE MID CLOUD TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO REACH INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RISES ALREADY SEEN
THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTER IS SLIDING EAST OF OUR AREA
WITH TIME...AND THUS SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED. THE LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL GET GOING AFT 00Z THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
TULSA. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
DROP INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG AT KFYV
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO ADDED AT PROB30 GROUP
FOR THE FINAL SIX HOURS AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TAF SITES
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AS WEAK IMPULSE
OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TRAVERSES THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...IN ZONE OF MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  79  57  78 /  30  20  20  20
FSM   52  75  55  76 /  10  20  10  10
MLC   53  76  56  79 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   52  79  52  76 /  30  20  20  20
FYV   48  74  47  73 /  10  20  20  20
BYV   50  73  49  72 /  10  20  20  20
MKO   51  77  55  77 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   52  74  53  74 /  30  20  20  20
F10   53  78  56  78 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   53  77  56  79 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 191725
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AT MOST OF
THE TAF SITES. INCREASING LOW LVL WARM ADV TNGT WILL LOWER
CIGS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHRA...POSSIBLY EVEN ISOLD
TSRA...ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR AFT 03Z THRU ROUGHLY 15Z MONDAY
MORNING. NW AR SITES WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS MON MORNING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING. A
PAIR OF UPPER LOWS HAVE BEEN TRAVERSING BENEATH THE WESTERN RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS NOW
MOVING EAST ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE MID CLOUD TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO REACH INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RISES ALREADY SEEN
THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTER IS SLIDING EAST OF OUR AREA
WITH TIME...AND THUS SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED. THE LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL GET GOING AFT 00Z THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
TULSA. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
DROP INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG AT KFYV
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO ADDED AT PROB30 GROUP
FOR THE FINAL SIX HOURS AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TAF SITES
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AS WEAK IMPULSE
OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TRAVERSES THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...IN ZONE OF MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  79  57  78 /  30  20  20  20
FSM   52  75  55  76 /  10  20  10  10
MLC   53  76  56  79 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   52  79  52  76 /  30  20  20  20
FYV   48  74  47  73 /  10  20  20  20
BYV   50  73  49  72 /  10  20  20  20
MKO   51  77  55  77 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   52  74  53  74 /  30  20  20  20
F10   53  78  56  78 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   53  77  56  79 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 191540
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1040 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING. A
PAIR OF UPPER LOWS HAVE BEEN TRAVERSING BENEATH THE WESTERN RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS NOW
MOVING EAST ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE MID CLOUD TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO REACH INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RISES ALREADY SEEN
THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTER IS SLIDING EAST OF OUR AREA
WITH TIME...AND THUS SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED. THE LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL GET GOING AFT 00Z THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
TULSA. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
DROP INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG AT KFYV
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO ADDED AT PROB30 GROUP
FOR THE FINAL SIX HOURS AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TAF SITES
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AS WEAK IMPULSE
OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TRAVERSES THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...IN ZONE OF MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  56  79  57 /  10  30  20  20
FSM   72  52  75  55 /   0  10  20  10
MLC   72  53  76  56 /  10  10  20  10
BVO   73  52  79  52 /  10  30  20  20
FYV   68  48  74  47 /   0  10  20  20
BYV   66  50  73  49 /   0  10  20  20
MKO   72  51  77  55 /  10  20  20  10
MIO   70  52  74  53 /  10  30  20  20
F10   72  53  78  56 /  10  20  20  10
HHW   73  53  77  56 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 191540
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1040 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING. A
PAIR OF UPPER LOWS HAVE BEEN TRAVERSING BENEATH THE WESTERN RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS NOW
MOVING EAST ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE MID CLOUD TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO REACH INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RISES ALREADY SEEN
THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTER IS SLIDING EAST OF OUR AREA
WITH TIME...AND THUS SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED. THE LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL GET GOING AFT 00Z THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
TULSA. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
DROP INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG AT KFYV
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO ADDED AT PROB30 GROUP
FOR THE FINAL SIX HOURS AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TAF SITES
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AS WEAK IMPULSE
OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TRAVERSES THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...IN ZONE OF MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  56  79  57 /  10  30  20  20
FSM   72  52  75  55 /   0  10  20  10
MLC   72  53  76  56 /  10  10  20  10
BVO   73  52  79  52 /  10  30  20  20
FYV   68  48  74  47 /   0  10  20  20
BYV   66  50  73  49 /   0  10  20  20
MKO   72  51  77  55 /  10  20  20  10
MIO   70  52  74  53 /  10  30  20  20
F10   72  53  78  56 /  10  20  20  10
HHW   73  53  77  56 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30




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