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  [top]

000
FXUS64 KTSA 010107
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
807 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm activity has dissipated this evening with only
a few lingering showers. Remainder of tonight should be quiet.
Low temperatures appear on track with no other significant changes
anticipated this evening. Update sent.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 010107
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
807 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm activity has dissipated this evening with only
a few lingering showers. Remainder of tonight should be quiet.
Low temperatures appear on track with no other significant changes
anticipated this evening. Update sent.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12



000
FXUS64 KTSA 010107
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
807 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm activity has dissipated this evening with only
a few lingering showers. Remainder of tonight should be quiet.
Low temperatures appear on track with no other significant changes
anticipated this evening. Update sent.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12



000
FXUS64 KTSA 010107
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
807 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm activity has dissipated this evening with only
a few lingering showers. Remainder of tonight should be quiet.
Low temperatures appear on track with no other significant changes
anticipated this evening. Update sent.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOUN 312356
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
656 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ALTHOUGH LATEST RAP & HRRR RUNS KEEP IT INACTIVE THERE, WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION,
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN LOW TSRA POPS THERE UNTIL THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK, KEEPING US DRY AND MAINTAINING SEASONABLY NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF SOLUTION SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE DIGGING ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW, WILL BE KEEPING ANY POPS OUT OF THERE, MAINLY DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
DURING THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR
AREA BEGINNING FOR MONDAY. AT THIS POINT, BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS
HINT A PACIFIC BASED MIDLEVEL MOISTURE PLUME, ORIGINATING FROM THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
SUNDAY. WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING NEAR THE TIME PERIOD, IT
WOULD CERTAINLY NOT RULE OUT LOW TSRA POPS IN OUR NORTHWEST FOR
THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  92  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         70  95  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  95  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           69  94  70  94 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     71  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  94  71  94 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 312301
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
601 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Will include a brief period of VCTS at KROG with TSRA noted
over Carroll county. Activity should diminish with loss of
daytime heating. Otherwise...VFR condtions are expected at all
sites through the TAF period.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Summer-like upper flow pattern continues over the CONUS today.
Broad ridging encompasses much of the country...with troughing
over the Pac NW and western Canadian coast. Underneath the
ridging...a weak NE-SW elongated trough/shear axis exists from OH
to TX. At the surface...a weak lee trough extended from the
northern to central High Plains.

Isolated diurnal convection is firing up again today...beneath the
trough axis and in the terrain. Not thinking there will be much
around after 00z...so will leave a silent 10 pop for the evening.
There was dense fog near the KS border last night...and with lows
forecast to dip below crossover temps up there...have inserted a
patchy fog mention. There will be one more day of isolated diurnal
convective potential on Tuesday before the trough shifts east and
south out of our area.

The remainder of the week and weekend will be quiet with ridging
aloft prevailing. Temps will run above average for highs in the
90s. By early next week...models suggest that the Pac NW trough
will slide across the northern tier of states over the top of the
ridge...and will force a cold front south thru the Plains. Looks
like storm potential will increase by Monday night and Tuesday of
next week.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  71  92 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   69  93  70  92 /  20  20  10  10
MLC   70  92  71  91 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   67  93  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   67  89  67  88 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   66  90  67  89 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   69  91  71  91 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   67  89  69  90 /  10   0   0  10
F10   69  91  71  91 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   70  95  70  94 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 312301
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
601 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Will include a brief period of VCTS at KROG with TSRA noted
over Carroll county. Activity should diminish with loss of
daytime heating. Otherwise...VFR condtions are expected at all
sites through the TAF period.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Summer-like upper flow pattern continues over the CONUS today.
Broad ridging encompasses much of the country...with troughing
over the Pac NW and western Canadian coast. Underneath the
ridging...a weak NE-SW elongated trough/shear axis exists from OH
to TX. At the surface...a weak lee trough extended from the
northern to central High Plains.

Isolated diurnal convection is firing up again today...beneath the
trough axis and in the terrain. Not thinking there will be much
around after 00z...so will leave a silent 10 pop for the evening.
There was dense fog near the KS border last night...and with lows
forecast to dip below crossover temps up there...have inserted a
patchy fog mention. There will be one more day of isolated diurnal
convective potential on Tuesday before the trough shifts east and
south out of our area.

The remainder of the week and weekend will be quiet with ridging
aloft prevailing. Temps will run above average for highs in the
90s. By early next week...models suggest that the Pac NW trough
will slide across the northern tier of states over the top of the
ridge...and will force a cold front south thru the Plains. Looks
like storm potential will increase by Monday night and Tuesday of
next week.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  71  92 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   69  93  70  92 /  20  20  10  10
MLC   70  92  71  91 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   67  93  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   67  89  67  88 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   66  90  67  89 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   69  91  71  91 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   67  89  69  90 /  10   0   0  10
F10   69  91  71  91 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   70  95  70  94 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 312301
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
601 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Will include a brief period of VCTS at KROG with TSRA noted
over Carroll county. Activity should diminish with loss of
daytime heating. Otherwise...VFR condtions are expected at all
sites through the TAF period.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Summer-like upper flow pattern continues over the CONUS today.
Broad ridging encompasses much of the country...with troughing
over the Pac NW and western Canadian coast. Underneath the
ridging...a weak NE-SW elongated trough/shear axis exists from OH
to TX. At the surface...a weak lee trough extended from the
northern to central High Plains.

Isolated diurnal convection is firing up again today...beneath the
trough axis and in the terrain. Not thinking there will be much
around after 00z...so will leave a silent 10 pop for the evening.
There was dense fog near the KS border last night...and with lows
forecast to dip below crossover temps up there...have inserted a
patchy fog mention. There will be one more day of isolated diurnal
convective potential on Tuesday before the trough shifts east and
south out of our area.

The remainder of the week and weekend will be quiet with ridging
aloft prevailing. Temps will run above average for highs in the
90s. By early next week...models suggest that the Pac NW trough
will slide across the northern tier of states over the top of the
ridge...and will force a cold front south thru the Plains. Looks
like storm potential will increase by Monday night and Tuesday of
next week.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  71  92 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   69  93  70  92 /  20  20  10  10
MLC   70  92  71  91 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   67  93  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   67  89  67  88 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   66  90  67  89 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   69  91  71  91 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   67  89  69  90 /  10   0   0  10
F10   69  91  71  91 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   70  95  70  94 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 312301
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
601 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Will include a brief period of VCTS at KROG with TSRA noted
over Carroll county. Activity should diminish with loss of
daytime heating. Otherwise...VFR condtions are expected at all
sites through the TAF period.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Summer-like upper flow pattern continues over the CONUS today.
Broad ridging encompasses much of the country...with troughing
over the Pac NW and western Canadian coast. Underneath the
ridging...a weak NE-SW elongated trough/shear axis exists from OH
to TX. At the surface...a weak lee trough extended from the
northern to central High Plains.

Isolated diurnal convection is firing up again today...beneath the
trough axis and in the terrain. Not thinking there will be much
around after 00z...so will leave a silent 10 pop for the evening.
There was dense fog near the KS border last night...and with lows
forecast to dip below crossover temps up there...have inserted a
patchy fog mention. There will be one more day of isolated diurnal
convective potential on Tuesday before the trough shifts east and
south out of our area.

The remainder of the week and weekend will be quiet with ridging
aloft prevailing. Temps will run above average for highs in the
90s. By early next week...models suggest that the Pac NW trough
will slide across the northern tier of states over the top of the
ridge...and will force a cold front south thru the Plains. Looks
like storm potential will increase by Monday night and Tuesday of
next week.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  71  92 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   69  93  70  92 /  20  20  10  10
MLC   70  92  71  91 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   67  93  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   67  89  67  88 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   66  90  67  89 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   69  91  71  91 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   67  89  69  90 /  10   0   0  10
F10   69  91  71  91 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   70  95  70  94 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 312026
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
326 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ALTHOUGH LATEST RAP & HRRR RUNS KEEP IT INACTIVE THERE, WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION,
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN LOW TSRA POPS THERE UNTIL THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK, KEEPING US DRY AND MAINTAINING SEASONABLY NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF SOLUTION SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE DIGGING ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW, WILL BE KEEPING ANY POPS OUT OF THERE, MAINLY DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
DURING THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR
AREA BEGINNING FOR MONDAY. AT THIS POINT, BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS
HINT A PACIFIC BASED MIDLEVEL MOISTURE PLUME, ORIGINATING FROM THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
SUNDAY. WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING NEAR THE TIME PERIOD, IT
WOULD CERTAINLY NOT RULE OUT LOW TSRA POPS IN OUR NORTHWEST FOR
THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  92  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         70  95  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  95  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           69  94  70  94 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     71  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  94  71  94 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/67



000
FXUS64 KOUN 312026
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
326 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ALTHOUGH LATEST RAP & HRRR RUNS KEEP IT INACTIVE THERE, WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION,
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN LOW TSRA POPS THERE UNTIL THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK, KEEPING US DRY AND MAINTAINING SEASONABLY NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF SOLUTION SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE DIGGING ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW, WILL BE KEEPING ANY POPS OUT OF THERE, MAINLY DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
DURING THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR
AREA BEGINNING FOR MONDAY. AT THIS POINT, BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS
HINT A PACIFIC BASED MIDLEVEL MOISTURE PLUME, ORIGINATING FROM THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
SUNDAY. WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING NEAR THE TIME PERIOD, IT
WOULD CERTAINLY NOT RULE OUT LOW TSRA POPS IN OUR NORTHWEST FOR
THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  92  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         70  95  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  95  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           69  94  70  94 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     71  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  94  71  94 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/67




000
FXUS64 KTSA 311924
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Summer-like upper flow pattern continues over the CONUS today.
Broad ridging encompasses much of the country...with troughing
over the Pac NW and western Canadian coast. Underneath the
ridging...a weak NE-SW elongated trough/shear axis exists from OH
to TX. At the surface...a weak lee trough extended from the
northern to central High Plains.

Isolated diurnal convection is firing up again today...beneath the
trough axis and in the terrain. Not thinking there will be much
around after 00z...so will leave a silent 10 pop for the evening.
There was dense fog near the KS border last night...and with lows
forecast to dip below crossover temps up there...have inserted a
patchy fog mention. There will be one more day of isolated diurnal
convective potential on Tuesday before the trough shifts east and
south out of our area.

The remainder of the week and weekend will be quiet with ridging
aloft prevailing. Temps will run above average for highs in the
90s. By early next week...models suggest that the Pac NW trough
will slide across the northern tier of states over the top of the
ridge...and will force a cold front south thru the Plains. Looks
like storm potential will increase by Monday night and Tuesday of
next week.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  71  92 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   69  93  70  92 /  10  20  10  10
MLC   70  92  71  91 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   67  93  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   67  89  67  88 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   66  90  67  89 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   69  91  71  91 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   67  89  69  90 /  10   0   0  10
F10   69  91  71  91 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   70  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



000
FXUS64 KTSA 311924
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Summer-like upper flow pattern continues over the CONUS today.
Broad ridging encompasses much of the country...with troughing
over the Pac NW and western Canadian coast. Underneath the
ridging...a weak NE-SW elongated trough/shear axis exists from OH
to TX. At the surface...a weak lee trough extended from the
northern to central High Plains.

Isolated diurnal convection is firing up again today...beneath the
trough axis and in the terrain. Not thinking there will be much
around after 00z...so will leave a silent 10 pop for the evening.
There was dense fog near the KS border last night...and with lows
forecast to dip below crossover temps up there...have inserted a
patchy fog mention. There will be one more day of isolated diurnal
convective potential on Tuesday before the trough shifts east and
south out of our area.

The remainder of the week and weekend will be quiet with ridging
aloft prevailing. Temps will run above average for highs in the
90s. By early next week...models suggest that the Pac NW trough
will slide across the northern tier of states over the top of the
ridge...and will force a cold front south thru the Plains. Looks
like storm potential will increase by Monday night and Tuesday of
next week.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  71  92 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   69  93  70  92 /  10  20  10  10
MLC   70  92  71  91 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   67  93  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   67  89  67  88 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   66  90  67  89 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   69  91  71  91 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   67  89  69  90 /  10   0   0  10
F10   69  91  71  91 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   70  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 311924
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Summer-like upper flow pattern continues over the CONUS today.
Broad ridging encompasses much of the country...with troughing
over the Pac NW and western Canadian coast. Underneath the
ridging...a weak NE-SW elongated trough/shear axis exists from OH
to TX. At the surface...a weak lee trough extended from the
northern to central High Plains.

Isolated diurnal convection is firing up again today...beneath the
trough axis and in the terrain. Not thinking there will be much
around after 00z...so will leave a silent 10 pop for the evening.
There was dense fog near the KS border last night...and with lows
forecast to dip below crossover temps up there...have inserted a
patchy fog mention. There will be one more day of isolated diurnal
convective potential on Tuesday before the trough shifts east and
south out of our area.

The remainder of the week and weekend will be quiet with ridging
aloft prevailing. Temps will run above average for highs in the
90s. By early next week...models suggest that the Pac NW trough
will slide across the northern tier of states over the top of the
ridge...and will force a cold front south thru the Plains. Looks
like storm potential will increase by Monday night and Tuesday of
next week.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  71  92 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   69  93  70  92 /  10  20  10  10
MLC   70  92  71  91 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   67  93  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   67  89  67  88 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   66  90  67  89 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   69  91  71  91 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   67  89  69  90 /  10   0   0  10
F10   69  91  71  91 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   70  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



000
FXUS64 KTSA 311924
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Summer-like upper flow pattern continues over the CONUS today.
Broad ridging encompasses much of the country...with troughing
over the Pac NW and western Canadian coast. Underneath the
ridging...a weak NE-SW elongated trough/shear axis exists from OH
to TX. At the surface...a weak lee trough extended from the
northern to central High Plains.

Isolated diurnal convection is firing up again today...beneath the
trough axis and in the terrain. Not thinking there will be much
around after 00z...so will leave a silent 10 pop for the evening.
There was dense fog near the KS border last night...and with lows
forecast to dip below crossover temps up there...have inserted a
patchy fog mention. There will be one more day of isolated diurnal
convective potential on Tuesday before the trough shifts east and
south out of our area.

The remainder of the week and weekend will be quiet with ridging
aloft prevailing. Temps will run above average for highs in the
90s. By early next week...models suggest that the Pac NW trough
will slide across the northern tier of states over the top of the
ridge...and will force a cold front south thru the Plains. Looks
like storm potential will increase by Monday night and Tuesday of
next week.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  71  92 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   69  93  70  92 /  10  20  10  10
MLC   70  92  71  91 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   67  93  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   67  89  67  88 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   66  90  67  89 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   69  91  71  91 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   67  89  69  90 /  10   0   0  10
F10   69  91  71  91 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   70  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 311740
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW SFC PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

UPDATE...
REMOVED FOG MENTION THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
ALMOST ALL FOG...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH NORTH OF ALVA BASED ON
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HAS DISSIPATED. THINK THIS
PATCH WILL BE GONE BY 10 AM. THUS...REMOVED FOG MENTION.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
31/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN BR WILL BE INCLUDED IN KPNC TERMINALS FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ESPECIALLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SOME DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE UP AROUND ENID...ALVA...AND PONCA CITY BUT DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT DURATION/COVERAGE TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.

WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. MAY NOT BE AS
ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY WITH ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPS MOST AREAS AND DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL INTRUSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           96  68  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/67/67



000
FXUS64 KOUN 311740
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW SFC PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

UPDATE...
REMOVED FOG MENTION THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
ALMOST ALL FOG...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH NORTH OF ALVA BASED ON
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HAS DISSIPATED. THINK THIS
PATCH WILL BE GONE BY 10 AM. THUS...REMOVED FOG MENTION.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
31/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN BR WILL BE INCLUDED IN KPNC TERMINALS FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ESPECIALLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SOME DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE UP AROUND ENID...ALVA...AND PONCA CITY BUT DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT DURATION/COVERAGE TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.

WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. MAY NOT BE AS
ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY WITH ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPS MOST AREAS AND DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL INTRUSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           96  68  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/67/67




000
FXUS64 KOUN 311740
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW SFC PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

UPDATE...
REMOVED FOG MENTION THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
ALMOST ALL FOG...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH NORTH OF ALVA BASED ON
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HAS DISSIPATED. THINK THIS
PATCH WILL BE GONE BY 10 AM. THUS...REMOVED FOG MENTION.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
31/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN BR WILL BE INCLUDED IN KPNC TERMINALS FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ESPECIALLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SOME DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE UP AROUND ENID...ALVA...AND PONCA CITY BUT DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT DURATION/COVERAGE TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.

WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. MAY NOT BE AS
ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY WITH ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPS MOST AREAS AND DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL INTRUSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           96  68  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/67/67



000
FXUS64 KOUN 311740
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW SFC PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

UPDATE...
REMOVED FOG MENTION THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
ALMOST ALL FOG...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH NORTH OF ALVA BASED ON
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HAS DISSIPATED. THINK THIS
PATCH WILL BE GONE BY 10 AM. THUS...REMOVED FOG MENTION.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
31/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN BR WILL BE INCLUDED IN KPNC TERMINALS FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ESPECIALLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SOME DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE UP AROUND ENID...ALVA...AND PONCA CITY BUT DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT DURATION/COVERAGE TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.

WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. MAY NOT BE AS
ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY WITH ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPS MOST AREAS AND DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL INTRUSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           96  68  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/67/67




000
FXUS64 KTSA 311710
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1210 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Isolated shower or
storm possible in NW AR but probability too low to mention.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Mid level shear axis remains in place across southeast OK and
western AR this morning. Isolated showers or storms remain
possible within this axis with some added terrain influence.
Forecast is tracking well this morning and no update needed.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Other than some patchy light fog early this morning at KBVO...VFR
conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Low chance pop this afternoon for southeast
OK and northwest AR...not unlike yesterday.

Long stretch of very warm dry weather while
H500 ridge expands from NM west TX into the
Great Lakes Region. Daytime highs generally
upper 80s to lower 90s  and  overnight lows
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Both...ECMWF and GFS swing significant H500
wave from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest
by Friday..then across northern US southern
CN border area. This will push a cold front
our way around or a little after Labor Day.
gw

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...12



000
FXUS64 KTSA 311710
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1210 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Isolated shower or
storm possible in NW AR but probability too low to mention.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Mid level shear axis remains in place across southeast OK and
western AR this morning. Isolated showers or storms remain
possible within this axis with some added terrain influence.
Forecast is tracking well this morning and no update needed.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Other than some patchy light fog early this morning at KBVO...VFR
conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Low chance pop this afternoon for southeast
OK and northwest AR...not unlike yesterday.

Long stretch of very warm dry weather while
H500 ridge expands from NM west TX into the
Great Lakes Region. Daytime highs generally
upper 80s to lower 90s  and  overnight lows
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Both...ECMWF and GFS swing significant H500
wave from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest
by Friday..then across northern US southern
CN border area. This will push a cold front
our way around or a little after Labor Day.
gw

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 311710
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1210 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Isolated shower or
storm possible in NW AR but probability too low to mention.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Mid level shear axis remains in place across southeast OK and
western AR this morning. Isolated showers or storms remain
possible within this axis with some added terrain influence.
Forecast is tracking well this morning and no update needed.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Other than some patchy light fog early this morning at KBVO...VFR
conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Low chance pop this afternoon for southeast
OK and northwest AR...not unlike yesterday.

Long stretch of very warm dry weather while
H500 ridge expands from NM west TX into the
Great Lakes Region. Daytime highs generally
upper 80s to lower 90s  and  overnight lows
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Both...ECMWF and GFS swing significant H500
wave from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest
by Friday..then across northern US southern
CN border area. This will push a cold front
our way around or a little after Labor Day.
gw

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...12



000
FXUS64 KTSA 311710
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1210 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Isolated shower or
storm possible in NW AR but probability too low to mention.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Mid level shear axis remains in place across southeast OK and
western AR this morning. Isolated showers or storms remain
possible within this axis with some added terrain influence.
Forecast is tracking well this morning and no update needed.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Other than some patchy light fog early this morning at KBVO...VFR
conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Low chance pop this afternoon for southeast
OK and northwest AR...not unlike yesterday.

Long stretch of very warm dry weather while
H500 ridge expands from NM west TX into the
Great Lakes Region. Daytime highs generally
upper 80s to lower 90s  and  overnight lows
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Both...ECMWF and GFS swing significant H500
wave from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest
by Friday..then across northern US southern
CN border area. This will push a cold front
our way around or a little after Labor Day.
gw

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 311515
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1015 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Mid level shear axis remains in place across southeast OK and
western AR this morning. Isolated showers or storms remain
possible within this axis with some added terrain influence.
Forecast is tracking well this morning and no update needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Other than some patchy light fog early this morning at KBVO...VFR
conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Low chance pop this afternoon for southeast
OK and northwest AR...not unlike yesterday.

Long stretch of very warm dry weather while
H500 ridge expands from NM west TX into the
Great Lakes Region. Daytime highs generally
upper 80s to lower 90s  and  overnight lows
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Both...ECMWF and GFS swing significant H500
wave from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest
by Friday..then across northern US southern
CN border area. This will push a cold front
our way around or a little after Labor Day.
gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  73  93  73 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   93  71  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  71  93  72 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   92  68  93  67 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   88  66  89  66 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   88  67  89  68 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   89  70  91  70 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   89  69  90  69 /   0  10   0  10
F10   91  72  92  71 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   95  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....30



000
FXUS64 KTSA 311515
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1015 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Mid level shear axis remains in place across southeast OK and
western AR this morning. Isolated showers or storms remain
possible within this axis with some added terrain influence.
Forecast is tracking well this morning and no update needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Other than some patchy light fog early this morning at KBVO...VFR
conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Low chance pop this afternoon for southeast
OK and northwest AR...not unlike yesterday.

Long stretch of very warm dry weather while
H500 ridge expands from NM west TX into the
Great Lakes Region. Daytime highs generally
upper 80s to lower 90s  and  overnight lows
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Both...ECMWF and GFS swing significant H500
wave from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest
by Friday..then across northern US southern
CN border area. This will push a cold front
our way around or a little after Labor Day.
gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  73  93  73 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   93  71  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  71  93  72 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   92  68  93  67 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   88  66  89  66 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   88  67  89  68 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   89  70  91  70 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   89  69  90  69 /   0  10   0  10
F10   91  72  92  71 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   95  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....30



000
FXUS64 KTSA 311515
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1015 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Mid level shear axis remains in place across southeast OK and
western AR this morning. Isolated showers or storms remain
possible within this axis with some added terrain influence.
Forecast is tracking well this morning and no update needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Other than some patchy light fog early this morning at KBVO...VFR
conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Low chance pop this afternoon for southeast
OK and northwest AR...not unlike yesterday.

Long stretch of very warm dry weather while
H500 ridge expands from NM west TX into the
Great Lakes Region. Daytime highs generally
upper 80s to lower 90s  and  overnight lows
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Both...ECMWF and GFS swing significant H500
wave from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest
by Friday..then across northern US southern
CN border area. This will push a cold front
our way around or a little after Labor Day.
gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  73  93  73 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   93  71  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  71  93  72 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   92  68  93  67 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   88  66  89  66 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   88  67  89  68 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   89  70  91  70 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   89  69  90  69 /   0  10   0  10
F10   91  72  92  71 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   95  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....30



000
FXUS64 KTSA 311515
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1015 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Mid level shear axis remains in place across southeast OK and
western AR this morning. Isolated showers or storms remain
possible within this axis with some added terrain influence.
Forecast is tracking well this morning and no update needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Other than some patchy light fog early this morning at KBVO...VFR
conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Low chance pop this afternoon for southeast
OK and northwest AR...not unlike yesterday.

Long stretch of very warm dry weather while
H500 ridge expands from NM west TX into the
Great Lakes Region. Daytime highs generally
upper 80s to lower 90s  and  overnight lows
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Both...ECMWF and GFS swing significant H500
wave from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest
by Friday..then across northern US southern
CN border area. This will push a cold front
our way around or a little after Labor Day.
gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  73  93  73 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   93  71  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  71  93  72 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   92  68  93  67 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   88  66  89  66 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   88  67  89  68 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   89  70  91  70 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   89  69  90  69 /   0  10   0  10
F10   91  72  92  71 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   95  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 311404 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
904 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
REMOVED FOG MENTION THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALMOST ALL FOG...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH NORTH OF ALVA BASED ON
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HAS DISSIPATED. THINK THIS
PATCH WILL BE GONE BY 10 AM. THUS...REMOVED FOG MENTION.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
31/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN BR WILL BE INCLUDED IN KPNC TERMINALS FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ESPECIALLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SOME DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE UP AROUND ENID...ALVA...AND PONCA CITY BUT DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT DURATION/COVERAGE TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.

WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. MAY NOT BE AS
ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY WITH ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPS MOST AREAS AND DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL INTRUSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           96  68  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 311404 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
904 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
REMOVED FOG MENTION THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALMOST ALL FOG...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH NORTH OF ALVA BASED ON
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HAS DISSIPATED. THINK THIS
PATCH WILL BE GONE BY 10 AM. THUS...REMOVED FOG MENTION.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
31/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN BR WILL BE INCLUDED IN KPNC TERMINALS FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ESPECIALLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SOME DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE UP AROUND ENID...ALVA...AND PONCA CITY BUT DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT DURATION/COVERAGE TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.

WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. MAY NOT BE AS
ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY WITH ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPS MOST AREAS AND DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL INTRUSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           96  68  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 311404 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
904 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
REMOVED FOG MENTION THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALMOST ALL FOG...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH NORTH OF ALVA BASED ON
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HAS DISSIPATED. THINK THIS
PATCH WILL BE GONE BY 10 AM. THUS...REMOVED FOG MENTION.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
31/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN BR WILL BE INCLUDED IN KPNC TERMINALS FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ESPECIALLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SOME DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE UP AROUND ENID...ALVA...AND PONCA CITY BUT DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT DURATION/COVERAGE TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.

WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. MAY NOT BE AS
ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY WITH ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPS MOST AREAS AND DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL INTRUSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           96  68  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 311404 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
904 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
REMOVED FOG MENTION THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALMOST ALL FOG...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH NORTH OF ALVA BASED ON
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HAS DISSIPATED. THINK THIS
PATCH WILL BE GONE BY 10 AM. THUS...REMOVED FOG MENTION.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
31/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN BR WILL BE INCLUDED IN KPNC TERMINALS FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ESPECIALLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SOME DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE UP AROUND ENID...ALVA...AND PONCA CITY BUT DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT DURATION/COVERAGE TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.

WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. MAY NOT BE AS
ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY WITH ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPS MOST AREAS AND DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL INTRUSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           96  68  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 311149 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
31/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN BR WILL BE INCLUDED IN KPNC TERMINALS FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ESPECIALLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SOME DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE UP AROUND ENID...ALVA...AND PONCA CITY BUT DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT DURATION/COVERAGE TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.

WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. MAY NOT BE AS
ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY WITH ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPS MOST AREAS AND DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL INTRUSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           96  68  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 311149 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
31/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN BR WILL BE INCLUDED IN KPNC TERMINALS FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ESPECIALLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SOME DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE UP AROUND ENID...ALVA...AND PONCA CITY BUT DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT DURATION/COVERAGE TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.

WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. MAY NOT BE AS
ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY WITH ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPS MOST AREAS AND DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL INTRUSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           96  68  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 311149 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
31/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN BR WILL BE INCLUDED IN KPNC TERMINALS FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ESPECIALLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SOME DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE UP AROUND ENID...ALVA...AND PONCA CITY BUT DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT DURATION/COVERAGE TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.

WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. MAY NOT BE AS
ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY WITH ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPS MOST AREAS AND DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL INTRUSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           96  68  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 311149 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
31/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN BR WILL BE INCLUDED IN KPNC TERMINALS FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ESPECIALLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SOME DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE UP AROUND ENID...ALVA...AND PONCA CITY BUT DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT DURATION/COVERAGE TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.

WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. MAY NOT BE AS
ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY WITH ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPS MOST AREAS AND DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL INTRUSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           96  68  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 311142
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
642 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Other than some patchy light fog early this morning at KBVO...VFR
conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Low chance pop this afternoon for southeast
OK and northwest AR...not unlike yesterday.

Long stretch of very warm dry weather while
H500 ridge expands from NM west TX into the
Great Lakes Region. Daytime highs generally
upper 80s to lower 90s  and  overnight lows
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Both...ECMWF and GFS swing significant H500
wave from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest
by Friday..then across northern US southern
CN border area. This will push a cold front
our way around or a little after Labor Day.
gw

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05




000
FXUS64 KTSA 311142
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
642 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Other than some patchy light fog early this morning at KBVO...VFR
conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Low chance pop this afternoon for southeast
OK and northwest AR...not unlike yesterday.

Long stretch of very warm dry weather while
H500 ridge expands from NM west TX into the
Great Lakes Region. Daytime highs generally
upper 80s to lower 90s  and  overnight lows
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Both...ECMWF and GFS swing significant H500
wave from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest
by Friday..then across northern US southern
CN border area. This will push a cold front
our way around or a little after Labor Day.
gw

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05



000
FXUS64 KTSA 311142
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
642 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Other than some patchy light fog early this morning at KBVO...VFR
conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Low chance pop this afternoon for southeast
OK and northwest AR...not unlike yesterday.

Long stretch of very warm dry weather while
H500 ridge expands from NM west TX into the
Great Lakes Region. Daytime highs generally
upper 80s to lower 90s  and  overnight lows
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Both...ECMWF and GFS swing significant H500
wave from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest
by Friday..then across northern US southern
CN border area. This will push a cold front
our way around or a little after Labor Day.
gw

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05



000
FXUS64 KTSA 311142
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
642 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Other than some patchy light fog early this morning at KBVO...VFR
conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Low chance pop this afternoon for southeast
OK and northwest AR...not unlike yesterday.

Long stretch of very warm dry weather while
H500 ridge expands from NM west TX into the
Great Lakes Region. Daytime highs generally
upper 80s to lower 90s  and  overnight lows
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Both...ECMWF and GFS swing significant H500
wave from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest
by Friday..then across northern US southern
CN border area. This will push a cold front
our way around or a little after Labor Day.
gw

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05




000
FXUS64 KTSA 310908
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
408 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Low chance pop this afternoon for southeast
OK and northwest AR...not unlike yesterday.

Long stretch of very warm dry weather while
H500 ridge expands from NM west TX into the
Great Lakes Region. Daytime highs generally
upper 80s to lower 90s  and  overnight lows
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Both...ECMWF and GFS swing significant H500
wave from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest
by Friday..then across northern US southern
CN border area. This will push a cold front
our way around or a little after Labor Day.
gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  73  93  73 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   93  71  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  71  93  72 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   92  68  93  67 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   88  66  89  66 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   88  67  89  68 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   89  70  91  70 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   89  69  90  69 /   0  10   0  10
F10   91  72  92  71 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   95  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21




000
FXUS64 KTSA 310908
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
408 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Low chance pop this afternoon for southeast
OK and northwest AR...not unlike yesterday.

Long stretch of very warm dry weather while
H500 ridge expands from NM west TX into the
Great Lakes Region. Daytime highs generally
upper 80s to lower 90s  and  overnight lows
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Both...ECMWF and GFS swing significant H500
wave from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest
by Friday..then across northern US southern
CN border area. This will push a cold front
our way around or a little after Labor Day.
gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  73  93  73 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   93  71  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  71  93  72 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   92  68  93  67 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   88  66  89  66 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   88  67  89  68 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   89  70  91  70 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   89  69  90  69 /   0  10   0  10
F10   91  72  92  71 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   95  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21




000
FXUS64 KTSA 310908
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
408 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Low chance pop this afternoon for southeast
OK and northwest AR...not unlike yesterday.

Long stretch of very warm dry weather while
H500 ridge expands from NM west TX into the
Great Lakes Region. Daytime highs generally
upper 80s to lower 90s  and  overnight lows
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Both...ECMWF and GFS swing significant H500
wave from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest
by Friday..then across northern US southern
CN border area. This will push a cold front
our way around or a little after Labor Day.
gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  73  93  73 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   93  71  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  71  93  72 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   92  68  93  67 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   88  66  89  66 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   88  67  89  68 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   89  70  91  70 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   89  69  90  69 /   0  10   0  10
F10   91  72  92  71 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   95  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21




000
FXUS64 KTSA 310908
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
408 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Low chance pop this afternoon for southeast
OK and northwest AR...not unlike yesterday.

Long stretch of very warm dry weather while
H500 ridge expands from NM west TX into the
Great Lakes Region. Daytime highs generally
upper 80s to lower 90s  and  overnight lows
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Both...ECMWF and GFS swing significant H500
wave from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest
by Friday..then across northern US southern
CN border area. This will push a cold front
our way around or a little after Labor Day.
gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  73  93  73 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   93  71  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  71  93  72 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   92  68  93  67 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   88  66  89  66 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   88  67  89  68 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   89  70  91  70 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   89  69  90  69 /   0  10   0  10
F10   91  72  92  71 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   95  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21




000
FXUS64 KOUN 310829
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SOME DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE UP AROUND ENID...ALVA...AND PONCA CITY BUT DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT DURATION/COVERAGE TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.

WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. MAY NOT BE AS
ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY WITH ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPS MOST AREAS AND DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL INTRUSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           96  68  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 310540 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
31/06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL MENTION MVFR BR AT KPNC THROUGH 15Z WITH SOME DENSE FOG NOT
OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FA. THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN SE PARTS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER... WILL KEEP POP/WX FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. CLOUDS IN
THE SE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA
SO WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE FORECAST. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  92  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         71  96  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  97  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           69  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     70  93  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  94  71  94 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 310540 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
31/06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL MENTION MVFR BR AT KPNC THROUGH 15Z WITH SOME DENSE FOG NOT
OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FA. THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN SE PARTS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER... WILL KEEP POP/WX FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. CLOUDS IN
THE SE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA
SO WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE FORECAST. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  92  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         71  96  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  97  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           69  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     70  93  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  94  71  94 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 310540 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
31/06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL MENTION MVFR BR AT KPNC THROUGH 15Z WITH SOME DENSE FOG NOT
OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FA. THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN SE PARTS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER... WILL KEEP POP/WX FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. CLOUDS IN
THE SE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA
SO WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE FORECAST. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  92  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         71  96  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  97  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           69  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     70  93  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  94  71  94 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 310540 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
31/06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL MENTION MVFR BR AT KPNC THROUGH 15Z WITH SOME DENSE FOG NOT
OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FA. THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN SE PARTS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER... WILL KEEP POP/WX FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. CLOUDS IN
THE SE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA
SO WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE FORECAST. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  92  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         71  96  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  97  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           69  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     70  93  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  94  71  94 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 310540 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
31/06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL MENTION MVFR BR AT KPNC THROUGH 15Z WITH SOME DENSE FOG NOT
OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FA. THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN SE PARTS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER... WILL KEEP POP/WX FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. CLOUDS IN
THE SE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA
SO WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE FORECAST. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  92  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         71  96  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  97  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           69  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     70  93  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  94  71  94 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30



000
FXUS64 KTSA 310451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the overnight
period...however coverage will remain too low for taf inclusion.
Therefore...VFR conditions are expected through the taf period at
all sites.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Vapor imagery depicts smaller scale circulation within the larger
scale trough and this feature is likely to have aided in the
uptick in convective coverage this afternoon and evening. Isolated
thunderstorms will remain possible overnight given the lack of mid
level inhibition within the deeper moisture across far E OK and W
AR. Updated forecast will account for rain cooled conditions
across SE OK otherwise the forecast is on track.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 310451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the overnight
period...however coverage will remain too low for taf inclusion.
Therefore...VFR conditions are expected through the taf period at
all sites.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Vapor imagery depicts smaller scale circulation within the larger
scale trough and this feature is likely to have aided in the
uptick in convective coverage this afternoon and evening. Isolated
thunderstorms will remain possible overnight given the lack of mid
level inhibition within the deeper moisture across far E OK and W
AR. Updated forecast will account for rain cooled conditions
across SE OK otherwise the forecast is on track.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 310451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the overnight
period...however coverage will remain too low for taf inclusion.
Therefore...VFR conditions are expected through the taf period at
all sites.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Vapor imagery depicts smaller scale circulation within the larger
scale trough and this feature is likely to have aided in the
uptick in convective coverage this afternoon and evening. Isolated
thunderstorms will remain possible overnight given the lack of mid
level inhibition within the deeper moisture across far E OK and W
AR. Updated forecast will account for rain cooled conditions
across SE OK otherwise the forecast is on track.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 310451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the overnight
period...however coverage will remain too low for taf inclusion.
Therefore...VFR conditions are expected through the taf period at
all sites.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Vapor imagery depicts smaller scale circulation within the larger
scale trough and this feature is likely to have aided in the
uptick in convective coverage this afternoon and evening. Isolated
thunderstorms will remain possible overnight given the lack of mid
level inhibition within the deeper moisture across far E OK and W
AR. Updated forecast will account for rain cooled conditions
across SE OK otherwise the forecast is on track.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 310231
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
931 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Vapor imagery depicts smaller scale circulation within the larger
scale trough and this feature is likely to have aided in the
uptick in convective coverage this afternoon and evening. Isolated
thunderstorms will remain possible overnight given the lack of mid
level inhibition within the deeper moisture across far E OK and W
AR. Updated forecast will account for rain cooled conditions
across SE OK otherwise the forecast is on track.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  93  72  93 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   71  93  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   72  93  71  93 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   65  93  68  93 /  10  10   0  10
FYV   68  88  67  90 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   69  88  68  91 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   69  90  69  91 /  20  10   0  10
MIO   69  92  69  92 /  20   0   0  10
F10   71  92  71  92 /  20   0  10  10
HHW   69  95  70  94 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07



000
FXUS64 KTSA 310231
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
931 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Vapor imagery depicts smaller scale circulation within the larger
scale trough and this feature is likely to have aided in the
uptick in convective coverage this afternoon and evening. Isolated
thunderstorms will remain possible overnight given the lack of mid
level inhibition within the deeper moisture across far E OK and W
AR. Updated forecast will account for rain cooled conditions
across SE OK otherwise the forecast is on track.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  93  72  93 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   71  93  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   72  93  71  93 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   65  93  68  93 /  10  10   0  10
FYV   68  88  67  90 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   69  88  68  91 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   69  90  69  91 /  20  10   0  10
MIO   69  92  69  92 /  20   0   0  10
F10   71  92  71  92 /  20   0  10  10
HHW   69  95  70  94 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07




000
FXUS64 KOUN 310227 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
927 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FA. THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN SE PARTS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER... WILL KEEP POP/WX FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. CLOUDS IN
THE SE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA
SO WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE FORECAST. UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         65  97  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           62  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 310227 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
927 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FA. THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN SE PARTS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER... WILL KEEP POP/WX FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. CLOUDS IN
THE SE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA
SO WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE FORECAST. UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         65  97  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           62  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 302310
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Will include a brief period of vtcs for diminishing tsra across
se OK and wc AR. Otherwise...vfr conditions are expected through
the taf period at all sites.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Atmosphere has become moderately unstable this afternoon with
temperatures warming into the lower 90s across far Southeast
Oklahoma. Weak short wave currently over Western Arkansas will
continue drifting slowly south-southwest. Upper feature, combined
with strong surface heating, will provide at least a limited
chance for widely scattered showers/thunderstorms through the
evening hours across Southeast Oklahoma/Northwest Arkansas.

Little overall change in the weather pattern is expected for
the next few days as elongated upper trough/low, currently southeast
of the region, continues to shift slowly eastward over the Gulf
Coast states towards mid week. Could see an isolated thunderstorm
or two develop over the higher terrain areas of Southeast
Oklahoma/Northwest Arkansas on Monday. Overall coverage appears
too low to mention at this time. Otherwise...warm/humid conditions
will persist into next weekend as upper ridge begins to build into
the Southern Plains with temperatures running a few degrees above
normal.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 302310
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Will include a brief period of vtcs for diminishing tsra across
se OK and wc AR. Otherwise...vfr conditions are expected through
the taf period at all sites.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Atmosphere has become moderately unstable this afternoon with
temperatures warming into the lower 90s across far Southeast
Oklahoma. Weak short wave currently over Western Arkansas will
continue drifting slowly south-southwest. Upper feature, combined
with strong surface heating, will provide at least a limited
chance for widely scattered showers/thunderstorms through the
evening hours across Southeast Oklahoma/Northwest Arkansas.

Little overall change in the weather pattern is expected for
the next few days as elongated upper trough/low, currently southeast
of the region, continues to shift slowly eastward over the Gulf
Coast states towards mid week. Could see an isolated thunderstorm
or two develop over the higher terrain areas of Southeast
Oklahoma/Northwest Arkansas on Monday. Overall coverage appears
too low to mention at this time. Otherwise...warm/humid conditions
will persist into next weekend as upper ridge begins to build into
the Southern Plains with temperatures running a few degrees above
normal.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 302309
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         65  97  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           62  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 302309
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         65  97  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           62  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 302309
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         65  97  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           62  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 302309
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         65  97  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           62  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 301922
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
222 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Atmosphere has become moderately unstable this afternoon with
temperatures warming into the lower 90s across far Southeast
Oklahoma. Weak short wave currently over Western Arkansas will
continue drifting slowly south-southwest. Upper feature, combined
with strong surface heating, will provide at least a limited
chance for widely scattered showers/thunderstorms through the
evening hours across Southeast Oklahoma/Northwest Arkansas.

Little overall change in the weather pattern is expected for
the next few days as elongated upper trough/low, currently southeast
of the region, continues to shift slowly eastward over the Gulf
Coast states towards mid week. Could see an isolated thunderstorm
or two develop over the higher terrain areas of Southeast
Oklahoma/Northwest Arkansas on Monday. Overall coverage appears
too low to mention at this time. Otherwise...warm/humid conditions
will persist into next weekend as upper ridge begins to build into
the Southern Plains with temperatures running a few degrees above
normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  93  72  93 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   72  93  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   72  93  71  93 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   65  93  68  93 /  10  10   0  10
FYV   68  88  67  90 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   69  88  68  91 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   69  90  69  91 /  20  10   0  10
MIO   69  92  69  92 /  20   0   0  10
F10   71  92  71  92 /  20   0  10  10
HHW   69  95  70  94 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301922
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
222 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Atmosphere has become moderately unstable this afternoon with
temperatures warming into the lower 90s across far Southeast
Oklahoma. Weak short wave currently over Western Arkansas will
continue drifting slowly south-southwest. Upper feature, combined
with strong surface heating, will provide at least a limited
chance for widely scattered showers/thunderstorms through the
evening hours across Southeast Oklahoma/Northwest Arkansas.

Little overall change in the weather pattern is expected for
the next few days as elongated upper trough/low, currently southeast
of the region, continues to shift slowly eastward over the Gulf
Coast states towards mid week. Could see an isolated thunderstorm
or two develop over the higher terrain areas of Southeast
Oklahoma/Northwest Arkansas on Monday. Overall coverage appears
too low to mention at this time. Otherwise...warm/humid conditions
will persist into next weekend as upper ridge begins to build into
the Southern Plains with temperatures running a few degrees above
normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  93  72  93 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   72  93  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   72  93  71  93 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   65  93  68  93 /  10  10   0  10
FYV   68  88  67  90 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   69  88  68  91 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   69  90  69  91 /  20  10   0  10
MIO   69  92  69  92 /  20   0   0  10
F10   71  92  71  92 /  20   0  10  10
HHW   69  95  70  94 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....12



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301920
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         65  97  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           62  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301920
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         65  97  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           62  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301920
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         65  97  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           62  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301920
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         65  97  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           62  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301726
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY
BELOW 10 KT AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH 14Z MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING.

PATCHES OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR 07-15Z
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE
LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPDATE THIS MORNING IS MAINLY TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG AND
MORNING THUNDER. FOG HAS CLEARED ALL OF THE OBSERVATION SITES. IF
THERE IS SOME LINGERING FOG OVER ALFALFA/GRANT COUNTIES... DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO REMAIN LONG AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.
TO THE SOUTH... ONE ISOLATED SHOWER IS DRIFTING ACROSS BRYAN
COUNTY... BUT OTHERWISE HAVE SEEN NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWER FOR THE MORNING HOURS BUT
REDUCE POPS TO LESS THAN 20. STILL SOME MIXED SIGNALS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL LEAVE THE
LOW AFTERNOON POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. WILL ALSO MENTION MVFR FOG OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS OF KOKC/KOUN FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         67  97  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  97  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           63  96  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301726
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY
BELOW 10 KT AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH 14Z MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING.

PATCHES OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR 07-15Z
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE
LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPDATE THIS MORNING IS MAINLY TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG AND
MORNING THUNDER. FOG HAS CLEARED ALL OF THE OBSERVATION SITES. IF
THERE IS SOME LINGERING FOG OVER ALFALFA/GRANT COUNTIES... DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO REMAIN LONG AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.
TO THE SOUTH... ONE ISOLATED SHOWER IS DRIFTING ACROSS BRYAN
COUNTY... BUT OTHERWISE HAVE SEEN NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWER FOR THE MORNING HOURS BUT
REDUCE POPS TO LESS THAN 20. STILL SOME MIXED SIGNALS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL LEAVE THE
LOW AFTERNOON POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. WILL ALSO MENTION MVFR FOG OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS OF KOKC/KOUN FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         67  97  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  97  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           63  96  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301726
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY
BELOW 10 KT AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH 14Z MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING.

PATCHES OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR 07-15Z
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE
LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPDATE THIS MORNING IS MAINLY TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG AND
MORNING THUNDER. FOG HAS CLEARED ALL OF THE OBSERVATION SITES. IF
THERE IS SOME LINGERING FOG OVER ALFALFA/GRANT COUNTIES... DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO REMAIN LONG AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.
TO THE SOUTH... ONE ISOLATED SHOWER IS DRIFTING ACROSS BRYAN
COUNTY... BUT OTHERWISE HAVE SEEN NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWER FOR THE MORNING HOURS BUT
REDUCE POPS TO LESS THAN 20. STILL SOME MIXED SIGNALS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL LEAVE THE
LOW AFTERNOON POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. WILL ALSO MENTION MVFR FOG OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS OF KOKC/KOUN FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         67  97  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  97  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           63  96  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301726
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY
BELOW 10 KT AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH 14Z MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING.

PATCHES OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR 07-15Z
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE
LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPDATE THIS MORNING IS MAINLY TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG AND
MORNING THUNDER. FOG HAS CLEARED ALL OF THE OBSERVATION SITES. IF
THERE IS SOME LINGERING FOG OVER ALFALFA/GRANT COUNTIES... DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO REMAIN LONG AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.
TO THE SOUTH... ONE ISOLATED SHOWER IS DRIFTING ACROSS BRYAN
COUNTY... BUT OTHERWISE HAVE SEEN NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWER FOR THE MORNING HOURS BUT
REDUCE POPS TO LESS THAN 20. STILL SOME MIXED SIGNALS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL LEAVE THE
LOW AFTERNOON POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. WILL ALSO MENTION MVFR FOG OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS OF KOKC/KOUN FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         67  97  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  97  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           63  96  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301726
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY
BELOW 10 KT AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH 14Z MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING.

PATCHES OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR 07-15Z
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE
LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPDATE THIS MORNING IS MAINLY TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG AND
MORNING THUNDER. FOG HAS CLEARED ALL OF THE OBSERVATION SITES. IF
THERE IS SOME LINGERING FOG OVER ALFALFA/GRANT COUNTIES... DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO REMAIN LONG AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.
TO THE SOUTH... ONE ISOLATED SHOWER IS DRIFTING ACROSS BRYAN
COUNTY... BUT OTHERWISE HAVE SEEN NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWER FOR THE MORNING HOURS BUT
REDUCE POPS TO LESS THAN 20. STILL SOME MIXED SIGNALS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL LEAVE THE
LOW AFTERNOON POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. WILL ALSO MENTION MVFR FOG OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS OF KOKC/KOUN FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         67  97  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  97  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           63  96  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301709
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period
as frontal boundary lifts north of the area/dissipates. isolated
shower or storm possible near NW AR sites again today but prob too
low to include in forecast at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A few showers were noted earlier within weakening frontal zone
stretching across SE OK/NW AR, and some additional development
remains possible through this afternoon. forecast basically in
good shape, though have removed pops from the morning period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Patchy light fog nay reduce visibilities to MVFR at some sites
through about 14z. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail through
the forecast period. Isolated convection will be possible near the
northwest Arkansas sites today...but the chances of any individual
site being impacted are too low to include in the TAF`s.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently east
of boundary..running from south central OK to
southwest MO. Low grade pops that area today.

Broad h500 ridge  from the southern / central
plains to the  northeastern states will be in
control for about the next week. This results
in  long stretch of generally dry weather for
our area.  Isolated showers or thunder may be
generated  over the  higher terrain southeast
OK and northwest Arkansas in daytime heat but
not enough for 20% pop.

all in all-dry with temperatures not far from
seasonal normals.                          gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  71  93  72 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   91  72  93  71 /  20  30  10  10
MLC   92  72  93  71 /  10  20   0  10
BVO   87  65  93  69 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   86  68  88  66 /  20  30  10  10
BYV   85  69  88  68 /  20  30  10  10
MKO   87  69  90  69 /  10  20  10   0
MIO   86  69  92  69 /  20  20   0   0
F10   89  71  92  71 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   94  69  95  70 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14



000
FXUS64 KTSA 301709
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period
as frontal boundary lifts north of the area/dissipates. isolated
shower or storm possible near NW AR sites again today but prob too
low to include in forecast at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A few showers were noted earlier within weakening frontal zone
stretching across SE OK/NW AR, and some additional development
remains possible through this afternoon. forecast basically in
good shape, though have removed pops from the morning period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Patchy light fog nay reduce visibilities to MVFR at some sites
through about 14z. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail through
the forecast period. Isolated convection will be possible near the
northwest Arkansas sites today...but the chances of any individual
site being impacted are too low to include in the TAF`s.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently east
of boundary..running from south central OK to
southwest MO. Low grade pops that area today.

Broad h500 ridge  from the southern / central
plains to the  northeastern states will be in
control for about the next week. This results
in  long stretch of generally dry weather for
our area.  Isolated showers or thunder may be
generated  over the  higher terrain southeast
OK and northwest Arkansas in daytime heat but
not enough for 20% pop.

all in all-dry with temperatures not far from
seasonal normals.                          gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  71  93  72 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   91  72  93  71 /  20  30  10  10
MLC   92  72  93  71 /  10  20   0  10
BVO   87  65  93  69 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   86  68  88  66 /  20  30  10  10
BYV   85  69  88  68 /  20  30  10  10
MKO   87  69  90  69 /  10  20  10   0
MIO   86  69  92  69 /  20  20   0   0
F10   89  71  92  71 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   94  69  95  70 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301709
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period
as frontal boundary lifts north of the area/dissipates. isolated
shower or storm possible near NW AR sites again today but prob too
low to include in forecast at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A few showers were noted earlier within weakening frontal zone
stretching across SE OK/NW AR, and some additional development
remains possible through this afternoon. forecast basically in
good shape, though have removed pops from the morning period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Patchy light fog nay reduce visibilities to MVFR at some sites
through about 14z. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail through
the forecast period. Isolated convection will be possible near the
northwest Arkansas sites today...but the chances of any individual
site being impacted are too low to include in the TAF`s.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently east
of boundary..running from south central OK to
southwest MO. Low grade pops that area today.

Broad h500 ridge  from the southern / central
plains to the  northeastern states will be in
control for about the next week. This results
in  long stretch of generally dry weather for
our area.  Isolated showers or thunder may be
generated  over the  higher terrain southeast
OK and northwest Arkansas in daytime heat but
not enough for 20% pop.

all in all-dry with temperatures not far from
seasonal normals.                          gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  71  93  72 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   91  72  93  71 /  20  30  10  10
MLC   92  72  93  71 /  10  20   0  10
BVO   87  65  93  69 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   86  68  88  66 /  20  30  10  10
BYV   85  69  88  68 /  20  30  10  10
MKO   87  69  90  69 /  10  20  10   0
MIO   86  69  92  69 /  20  20   0   0
F10   89  71  92  71 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   94  69  95  70 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301709
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period
as frontal boundary lifts north of the area/dissipates. isolated
shower or storm possible near NW AR sites again today but prob too
low to include in forecast at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A few showers were noted earlier within weakening frontal zone
stretching across SE OK/NW AR, and some additional development
remains possible through this afternoon. forecast basically in
good shape, though have removed pops from the morning period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Patchy light fog nay reduce visibilities to MVFR at some sites
through about 14z. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail through
the forecast period. Isolated convection will be possible near the
northwest Arkansas sites today...but the chances of any individual
site being impacted are too low to include in the TAF`s.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently east
of boundary..running from south central OK to
southwest MO. Low grade pops that area today.

Broad h500 ridge  from the southern / central
plains to the  northeastern states will be in
control for about the next week. This results
in  long stretch of generally dry weather for
our area.  Isolated showers or thunder may be
generated  over the  higher terrain southeast
OK and northwest Arkansas in daytime heat but
not enough for 20% pop.

all in all-dry with temperatures not far from
seasonal normals.                          gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  71  93  72 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   91  72  93  71 /  20  30  10  10
MLC   92  72  93  71 /  10  20   0  10
BVO   87  65  93  69 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   86  68  88  66 /  20  30  10  10
BYV   85  69  88  68 /  20  30  10  10
MKO   87  69  90  69 /  10  20  10   0
MIO   86  69  92  69 /  20  20   0   0
F10   89  71  92  71 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   94  69  95  70 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301613
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPDATE THIS MORNING IS MAINLY TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG AND
MORNING THUNDER. FOG HAS CLEARED ALL OF THE OBSERVATION SITES. IF
THERE IS SOME LINGERING FOG OVER ALFALFA/GRANT COUNTIES... DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO REMAIN LONG AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.
TO THE SOUTH... ONE ISOLATED SHOWER IS DRIFTING ACROSS BRYAN
COUNTY... BUT OTHERWISE HAVE SEEN NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWER FOR THE MORNING HOURS BUT
REDUCE POPS TO LESS THAN 20. STILL SOME MIXED SIGNALS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL LEAVE THE
LOW AFTERNOON POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. WILL ALSO MENTION MVFR FOG OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS OF KOKC/KOUN FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         92  67  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           91  63  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  67  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301613
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPDATE THIS MORNING IS MAINLY TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG AND
MORNING THUNDER. FOG HAS CLEARED ALL OF THE OBSERVATION SITES. IF
THERE IS SOME LINGERING FOG OVER ALFALFA/GRANT COUNTIES... DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO REMAIN LONG AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.
TO THE SOUTH... ONE ISOLATED SHOWER IS DRIFTING ACROSS BRYAN
COUNTY... BUT OTHERWISE HAVE SEEN NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWER FOR THE MORNING HOURS BUT
REDUCE POPS TO LESS THAN 20. STILL SOME MIXED SIGNALS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL LEAVE THE
LOW AFTERNOON POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. WILL ALSO MENTION MVFR FOG OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS OF KOKC/KOUN FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         92  67  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           91  63  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  67  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301535
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1035 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A few showers were noted earlier within weakening frontal zone
stretching across SE OK/NW AR, and some additional development
remains possible through this afternoon. forecast basically in
good shape, though have removed pops from the morning period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Patchy light fog nay reduce visibilities to MVFR at some sites
through about 14z. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail through
the forecast period. Isolated convection will be possible near the
northwest Arkansas sites today...but the chances of any individual
site being impacted are too low to include in the TAF`s.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently east
of boundary..running from south central OK to
southwest MO. Low grade pops that area today.

Broad h500 ridge  from the southern / central
plains to the  northeastern states will be in
control for about the next week. This results
in  long stretch of generally dry weather for
our area.  Isolated showers or thunder may be
generated  over the  higher terrain southeast
OK and northwest Arkansas in daytime heat but
not enough for 20% pop.

all in all-dry with temperatures not far from
seasonal normals.                          gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  72  92  73 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   91  70  92  70 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  70  92  71 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   87  65  91  69 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   86  65  88  67 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   85  65  88  66 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   87  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   86  67  90  69 /  20  10   0   0
F10   89  69  91  70 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   94  70  94  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301535
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1035 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A few showers were noted earlier within weakening frontal zone
stretching across SE OK/NW AR, and some additional development
remains possible through this afternoon. forecast basically in
good shape, though have removed pops from the morning period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Patchy light fog nay reduce visibilities to MVFR at some sites
through about 14z. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail through
the forecast period. Isolated convection will be possible near the
northwest Arkansas sites today...but the chances of any individual
site being impacted are too low to include in the TAF`s.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently east
of boundary..running from south central OK to
southwest MO. Low grade pops that area today.

Broad h500 ridge  from the southern / central
plains to the  northeastern states will be in
control for about the next week. This results
in  long stretch of generally dry weather for
our area.  Isolated showers or thunder may be
generated  over the  higher terrain southeast
OK and northwest Arkansas in daytime heat but
not enough for 20% pop.

all in all-dry with temperatures not far from
seasonal normals.                          gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  72  92  73 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   91  70  92  70 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  70  92  71 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   87  65  91  69 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   86  65  88  67 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   85  65  88  66 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   87  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   86  67  90  69 /  20  10   0   0
F10   89  69  91  70 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   94  70  94  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301146 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. WILL ALSO MENTION MVFR FOG OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS OF KOKC/KOUN FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         92  67  97  71 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           91  63  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  67  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301146 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. WILL ALSO MENTION MVFR FOG OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS OF KOKC/KOUN FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         92  67  97  71 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           91  63  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  67  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301146 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. WILL ALSO MENTION MVFR FOG OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS OF KOKC/KOUN FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         92  67  97  71 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           91  63  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  67  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301138
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
638 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Patchy light fog nay reduce visibilities to MVFR at some sites
through about 14z. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail through
the forecast period. Isolated convection will be possible near the
northwest Arkansas sites today...but the chances of any individual
site being impacted are too low to include in the TAF`s.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently east
of boundary..running from south central OK to
southwest MO. Low grade pops that area today.

Broad h500 ridge  from the southern / central
plains to the  northeastern states will be in
control for about the next week. This results
in  long stretch of generally dry weather for
our area.  Isolated showers or thunder may be
generated  over the  higher terrain southeast
OK and northwest Arkansas in daytime heat but
not enough for 20% pop.

all in all-dry with temperatures not far from
seasonal normals.                          gw

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05



000
FXUS64 KTSA 301138
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
638 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Patchy light fog nay reduce visibilities to MVFR at some sites
through about 14z. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail through
the forecast period. Isolated convection will be possible near the
northwest Arkansas sites today...but the chances of any individual
site being impacted are too low to include in the TAF`s.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently east
of boundary..running from south central OK to
southwest MO. Low grade pops that area today.

Broad h500 ridge  from the southern / central
plains to the  northeastern states will be in
control for about the next week. This results
in  long stretch of generally dry weather for
our area.  Isolated showers or thunder may be
generated  over the  higher terrain southeast
OK and northwest Arkansas in daytime heat but
not enough for 20% pop.

all in all-dry with temperatures not far from
seasonal normals.                          gw

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05




000
FXUS64 KOUN 300906
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         92  67  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           91  63  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  67  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 300906
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         92  67  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           91  63  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  67  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 300906
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         92  67  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           91  63  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  67  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 300906
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         92  67  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           91  63  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  67  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300905
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently east
of boundary..running from south central OK to
southwest MO. Low grade pops that area today.

Broad h500 ridge  from the southern / central
plains to the  northeastern states will be in
control for about the next week. This results
in  long stretch of generally dry weather for
our area.  Isolated showers or thunder may be
generated  over the  higher terrain southeast
OK and northwest Arkansas in daytime heat but
not enough for 20% pop.

all in all-dry with temperatures not far from
seasonal normals.                          gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  72  92  73 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   91  70  92  70 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  70  92  71 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   87  65  91  69 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   86  65  88  67 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   85  65  88  66 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   87  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   86  67  90  69 /  20  10   0   0
F10   89  69  91  70 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   94  70  94  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21



000
FXUS64 KTSA 300905
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently east
of boundary..running from south central OK to
southwest MO. Low grade pops that area today.

Broad h500 ridge  from the southern / central
plains to the  northeastern states will be in
control for about the next week. This results
in  long stretch of generally dry weather for
our area.  Isolated showers or thunder may be
generated  over the  higher terrain southeast
OK and northwest Arkansas in daytime heat but
not enough for 20% pop.

all in all-dry with temperatures not far from
seasonal normals.                          gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  72  92  73 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   91  70  92  70 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  70  92  71 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   87  65  91  69 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   86  65  88  67 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   85  65  88  66 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   87  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   86  67  90  69 /  20  10   0   0
F10   89  69  91  70 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   94  70  94  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300905
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently east
of boundary..running from south central OK to
southwest MO. Low grade pops that area today.

Broad h500 ridge  from the southern / central
plains to the  northeastern states will be in
control for about the next week. This results
in  long stretch of generally dry weather for
our area.  Isolated showers or thunder may be
generated  over the  higher terrain southeast
OK and northwest Arkansas in daytime heat but
not enough for 20% pop.

all in all-dry with temperatures not far from
seasonal normals.                          gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  72  92  73 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   91  70  92  70 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  70  92  71 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   87  65  91  69 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   86  65  88  67 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   85  65  88  66 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   87  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   86  67  90  69 /  20  10   0   0
F10   89  69  91  70 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   94  70  94  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300905
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently east
of boundary..running from south central OK to
southwest MO. Low grade pops that area today.

Broad h500 ridge  from the southern / central
plains to the  northeastern states will be in
control for about the next week. This results
in  long stretch of generally dry weather for
our area.  Isolated showers or thunder may be
generated  over the  higher terrain southeast
OK and northwest Arkansas in daytime heat but
not enough for 20% pop.

all in all-dry with temperatures not far from
seasonal normals.                          gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  72  92  73 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   91  70  92  70 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  70  92  71 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   87  65  91  69 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   86  65  88  67 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   85  65  88  66 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   87  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   86  67  90  69 /  20  10   0   0
F10   89  69  91  70 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   94  70  94  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300905
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently east
of boundary..running from south central OK to
southwest MO. Low grade pops that area today.

Broad h500 ridge  from the southern / central
plains to the  northeastern states will be in
control for about the next week. This results
in  long stretch of generally dry weather for
our area.  Isolated showers or thunder may be
generated  over the  higher terrain southeast
OK and northwest Arkansas in daytime heat but
not enough for 20% pop.

all in all-dry with temperatures not far from
seasonal normals.                          gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  72  92  73 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   91  70  92  70 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  70  92  71 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   87  65  91  69 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   86  65  88  67 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   85  65  88  66 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   87  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   86  67  90  69 /  20  10   0   0
F10   89  69  91  70 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   94  70  94  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300905
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently east
of boundary..running from south central OK to
southwest MO. Low grade pops that area today.

Broad h500 ridge  from the southern / central
plains to the  northeastern states will be in
control for about the next week. This results
in  long stretch of generally dry weather for
our area.  Isolated showers or thunder may be
generated  over the  higher terrain southeast
OK and northwest Arkansas in daytime heat but
not enough for 20% pop.

all in all-dry with temperatures not far from
seasonal normals.                          gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  72  92  73 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   91  70  92  70 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  70  92  71 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   87  65  91  69 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   86  65  88  67 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   85  65  88  66 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   87  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   86  67  90  69 /  20  10   0   0
F10   89  69  91  70 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   94  70  94  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300434
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1134 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered convection will continue through the early morning hours
from SE OK into NW AR with brief aviation impacts possible. Patchy
fog may also develop from NE OK into far NW AR and possibly mixing
into MVFR ceilings after sunrise. Thereafter VFR conditions will
prevail with isolated afternoon convection possible primarily over
western AR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak surface boundary noted across east central Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this evening. Additional showers and
thunderstorms have developed in the vicinity of the boundary this
evening...and have adjusted pops slightly. Will keep low chance
across northwest Arkansas as local model guidance and short term
trends suggest slightly higher coverage across those locations.
Temperatures tracking towards overnight lows...so little
adjustment was required to that element.

Updated ZFP/PFM/ AFM already sent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  88  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   70  91  71  93 /  20  20  20  10
MLC   69  91  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   62  88  64  93 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   66  86  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   67  87  68  88 /  30  20  20  10
MKO   67  87  68  91 /  20  10  10  10
MIO   66  86  67  90 /  10  10  10  10
F10   67  88  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   71  94  70  94 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07



000
FXUS64 KTSA 300434
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1134 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered convection will continue through the early morning hours
from SE OK into NW AR with brief aviation impacts possible. Patchy
fog may also develop from NE OK into far NW AR and possibly mixing
into MVFR ceilings after sunrise. Thereafter VFR conditions will
prevail with isolated afternoon convection possible primarily over
western AR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak surface boundary noted across east central Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this evening. Additional showers and
thunderstorms have developed in the vicinity of the boundary this
evening...and have adjusted pops slightly. Will keep low chance
across northwest Arkansas as local model guidance and short term
trends suggest slightly higher coverage across those locations.
Temperatures tracking towards overnight lows...so little
adjustment was required to that element.

Updated ZFP/PFM/ AFM already sent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  88  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   70  91  71  93 /  20  20  20  10
MLC   69  91  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   62  88  64  93 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   66  86  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   67  87  68  88 /  30  20  20  10
MKO   67  87  68  91 /  20  10  10  10
MIO   66  86  67  90 /  10  10  10  10
F10   67  88  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   71  94  70  94 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300240
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
940 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Weak surface boundary noted across east central Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this evening. Additional showers and
thunderstorms have developed in the vicinity of the boundary this
evening...and have adjusted pops slightly. Will keep low chance
across northwest Arkansas as local model guidance and short term
trends suggest slightly higher coverage across those locations.
Temperatures tracking towards overnight lows...so little
adjustment was required to that element.

Updated ZFP/PFM/ AFM already sent.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300240
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
940 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Weak surface boundary noted across east central Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this evening. Additional showers and
thunderstorms have developed in the vicinity of the boundary this
evening...and have adjusted pops slightly. Will keep low chance
across northwest Arkansas as local model guidance and short term
trends suggest slightly higher coverage across those locations.
Temperatures tracking towards overnight lows...so little
adjustment was required to that element.

Updated ZFP/PFM/ AFM already sent.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300240
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
940 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Weak surface boundary noted across east central Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this evening. Additional showers and
thunderstorms have developed in the vicinity of the boundary this
evening...and have adjusted pops slightly. Will keep low chance
across northwest Arkansas as local model guidance and short term
trends suggest slightly higher coverage across those locations.
Temperatures tracking towards overnight lows...so little
adjustment was required to that element.

Updated ZFP/PFM/ AFM already sent.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 300212 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
912 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THIS EVENING INTO
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONT FOR SE PARTS OF THE FA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND ADDED
POPS/WX FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND AFTER 6Z PERIOD. ADJUSTED
SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. UPDATES OUT
SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE DAY.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...THINK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...SURFACE HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAK
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A QUANAH
TEXAS TO WAURIKA TO ATOKA LINE. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY...
THOUGH THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS AS THEY
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THESE AREAS. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST AND MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL AS
CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG.

AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY EAST OF AN ALVA TO WAURIKA LINE...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL
GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO
MENTION.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  91  67  95 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         63  95  66  98 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  98  71  99 /  20  10   0   0
GAGE OK           57  93  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  89  66  93 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 300212 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
912 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THIS EVENING INTO
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONT FOR SE PARTS OF THE FA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND ADDED
POPS/WX FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND AFTER 6Z PERIOD. ADJUSTED
SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. UPDATES OUT
SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE DAY.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...THINK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...SURFACE HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAK
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A QUANAH
TEXAS TO WAURIKA TO ATOKA LINE. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY...
THOUGH THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS AS THEY
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THESE AREAS. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST AND MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL AS
CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG.

AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY EAST OF AN ALVA TO WAURIKA LINE...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL
GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO
MENTION.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  91  67  95 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         63  95  66  98 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  98  71  99 /  20  10   0   0
GAGE OK           57  93  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  89  66  93 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 300212 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
912 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THIS EVENING INTO
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONT FOR SE PARTS OF THE FA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND ADDED
POPS/WX FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND AFTER 6Z PERIOD. ADJUSTED
SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. UPDATES OUT
SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE DAY.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...THINK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...SURFACE HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAK
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A QUANAH
TEXAS TO WAURIKA TO ATOKA LINE. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY...
THOUGH THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS AS THEY
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THESE AREAS. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST AND MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL AS
CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG.

AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY EAST OF AN ALVA TO WAURIKA LINE...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL
GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO
MENTION.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  91  67  95 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         63  95  66  98 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  98  71  99 /  20  10   0   0
GAGE OK           57  93  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  89  66  93 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 300212 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
912 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THIS EVENING INTO
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONT FOR SE PARTS OF THE FA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND ADDED
POPS/WX FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND AFTER 6Z PERIOD. ADJUSTED
SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. UPDATES OUT
SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE DAY.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...THINK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...SURFACE HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAK
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A QUANAH
TEXAS TO WAURIKA TO ATOKA LINE. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY...
THOUGH THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS AS THEY
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THESE AREAS. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST AND MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL AS
CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG.

AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY EAST OF AN ALVA TO WAURIKA LINE...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL
GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO
MENTION.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  91  67  95 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         63  95  66  98 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  98  71  99 /  20  10   0   0
GAGE OK           57  93  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  89  66  93 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30




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