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  [top]

000
FXUS64 KTSA 292039
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
339 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS FAR SE OK WILL REMAIN ON
PERIPHERY OF UPWARD INFLUENCE FROM COMPACT WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER FAR NW AR. AN ISOLATED STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MID EVENING UNTIL INHIBITION
STRENGTHENS SUFFICIENTLY.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS EXPAND EASTWARD TUES/WED SUPPORTING A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND AND EFFECTIVELY CAPPING DEEP CONVECTION
FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ADDITIONALLY DEEPER MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER EAST TX WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD RESULTING IN HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR ALL OF THE AREA.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST NUMERICAL DATA THAT CONVECTION WILL IGNITE
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD FAR NE OK / FAR NW AR LATE TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.
OUTFLOW AND/OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY BY
WED AFTERNOON HOWEVER OUTSIDE OF THIS INFLUENCE THERMAL FIELDS
SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S.

HEIGHTS FALL BY LATE WEEK W/ A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
NE OK LATE THURSDAY...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND AIDING IN ITS FURTHER SOUTHWARD ADVANCE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR REPEATED
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE AND
THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AND/OR LOSES DEFINITION ACROSS THE
REGION. A RETURN TO DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LOOKS LIKELY BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  96  77  96 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   71  97  75  95 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   70  94  76  93 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   63  96  74  96 /   0  10  10  20
FYV   62  91  71  92 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   64  91  71  88 /   0  10  10  40
MKO   69  95  74  92 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   66  94  76  93 /   0  10  20  30
F10   70  95  76  92 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   71  93  73  93 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 292039
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
339 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS FAR SE OK WILL REMAIN ON
PERIPHERY OF UPWARD INFLUENCE FROM COMPACT WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER FAR NW AR. AN ISOLATED STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MID EVENING UNTIL INHIBITION
STRENGTHENS SUFFICIENTLY.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS EXPAND EASTWARD TUES/WED SUPPORTING A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND AND EFFECTIVELY CAPPING DEEP CONVECTION
FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ADDITIONALLY DEEPER MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER EAST TX WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD RESULTING IN HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR ALL OF THE AREA.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST NUMERICAL DATA THAT CONVECTION WILL IGNITE
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD FAR NE OK / FAR NW AR LATE TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.
OUTFLOW AND/OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY BY
WED AFTERNOON HOWEVER OUTSIDE OF THIS INFLUENCE THERMAL FIELDS
SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S.

HEIGHTS FALL BY LATE WEEK W/ A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
NE OK LATE THURSDAY...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND AIDING IN ITS FURTHER SOUTHWARD ADVANCE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR REPEATED
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE AND
THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AND/OR LOSES DEFINITION ACROSS THE
REGION. A RETURN TO DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LOOKS LIKELY BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  96  77  96 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   71  97  75  95 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   70  94  76  93 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   63  96  74  96 /   0  10  10  20
FYV   62  91  71  92 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   64  91  71  88 /   0  10  10  40
MKO   69  95  74  92 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   66  94  76  93 /   0  10  20  30
F10   70  95  76  92 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   71  93  73  93 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07


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000
FXUS64 KOUN 291936
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
236 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE IN THE SHORT
TERM...KEEPING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HOT AND FAIRLY DRY. WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE AREA...HEAT INDICES WILL REACH INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS.

ENTERING INTO THURSDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SO WE MAY SEE A FAIRLY
WET 4TH OF JULY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO COOL THINGS OFF A BIT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING HIGHS DOWN INTO THE 80S.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN...SIGNALING A RETURN OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...CORRECTED
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  96  74  95 /  10   0   0  10
HOBART OK         69  98  74  98 /  20   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  97  75  98 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           66  97  74  99 /  10   0   0  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  98  78  99 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         71  95  72  94 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/14



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291936
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
236 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE IN THE SHORT
TERM...KEEPING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HOT AND FAIRLY DRY. WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE AREA...HEAT INDICES WILL REACH INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS.

ENTERING INTO THURSDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SO WE MAY SEE A FAIRLY
WET 4TH OF JULY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO COOL THINGS OFF A BIT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING HIGHS DOWN INTO THE 80S.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN...SIGNALING A RETURN OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...CORRECTED
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  96  74  95 /  10   0   0  10
HOBART OK         69  98  74  98 /  20   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  97  75  98 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           66  97  74  99 /  10   0   0  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  98  78  99 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         71  95  72  94 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 291934
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
234 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE IN THE SHORT
TERM...KEEPING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HOT AND FAIRLY DRY. WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE AREA...HEAT INDICES WILL REACH INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS.

ENTERING INTO THURSDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SO WE MAY SEE A FAIRLY
WET 4TH OF JULY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO COOL THINGS OFF A BIT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING HIGHS DOWN INTO THE 80S.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN...SIGNALING A RETURN OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  96  74  96 /  10   0   0  10
HOBART OK         69  98  73  98 /  20   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  97  75  97 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           66  97  73  99 /  10   0   0  20
PONCA CITY OK     69  98  78  99 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         71  95  72  93 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 291934
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
234 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE IN THE SHORT
TERM...KEEPING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HOT AND FAIRLY DRY. WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE AREA...HEAT INDICES WILL REACH INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS.

ENTERING INTO THURSDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SO WE MAY SEE A FAIRLY
WET 4TH OF JULY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO COOL THINGS OFF A BIT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING HIGHS DOWN INTO THE 80S.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN...SIGNALING A RETURN OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  96  74  96 /  10   0   0  10
HOBART OK         69  98  73  98 /  20   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  97  75  97 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           66  97  73  99 /  10   0   0  20
PONCA CITY OK     69  98  78  99 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         71  95  72  93 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/14



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291708
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT IS ENTERING NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WHICH WILL
BRING MORE NORTHERLY...BUT STILL LIGHT...WINDS TO NORTHERN TAF
SITES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FORM OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS.

MAD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX THROUGH NOON...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SWRN OK/NRN TX THIS
MORNING AS MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM H850 WINDS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
DID NOT MAKE ANY IMMEDIATE ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP/WX CHCS THIS
AFTN. HOWEVER... WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEAK SHORT WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE WRN HIGH PLAINS OF CO/KS INTO THE
PANHANDLES THIS AFTN. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE
EXITING/DISSIPATING CONVECTION. SFC DPTS REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OK... WITH SBCAPE VALUES POSSIBLE IN
THE 800-1500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS SRN OK/NRN TX THIS EVENING. THE
RECENT HRRR IS LIKELY CONTINUING TO OVER-DO CONVECTION...
HOWEVER... THE GENERAL LOCATION IS LIKELY FAIRLY ACCURATE... WITH
FOCUS ALONG THE WEAK/DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN OK. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN...
WITH MAYBE ONE OR TWO STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO-SCT TSRA WILL AFFECT KLAW AND KHBR THROUGH 14Z BEFORE
WEAKENING. ADDITIONAL ISO TSRA WILL FORM SOUTH OF KPPA-KSWO
18-05Z...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND HOT WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW FACTORS HAVE LED
TO THE FORMATION OF THESE STORMS POSSIBLY INCLUDING A WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...SLIGHT MID LEVEL WEAKNESS AND SLIGHT
DECREASE IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO BREAK A WEAK CAP...AND
SOME ELEVATED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THINK THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTH THIS MORNING. NOT SURE IF THEY WILL WEAKEN. THINK THEY WILL
STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ADDED/INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE COOLEST 700 MB TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE...AND WEAKEST CAPPING ARE FORECAST. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS...BUT GENERALLY THINK WEAK
SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CAPPING STRENGTHENS.

TODAY WILL BE HOT AND STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 90S. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY...MAINLY NEAR EAST OF A SHAWNEE
TO MARIETTA LINE ON TUESDAY WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT MAY POOL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND HEAT INDICES HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR NO RAIN
OR STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CAPPING MAY BE QUITE STRONG WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES +10 TO
+13...SO THINK STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST. A STRAY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THURSDAY
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER AREA DUE TO SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. DON/T
EXPECT ALL DAY RAINS...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR AT TIMES.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  94  70  96  74 /  10  10   0   0
HOBART OK         96  69  98  73 /  30  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  72  97  75 /  60  20   0   0
GAGE OK           92  66  97  73 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     93  69  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  95  72 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/14/14



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291708
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT IS ENTERING NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WHICH WILL
BRING MORE NORTHERLY...BUT STILL LIGHT...WINDS TO NORTHERN TAF
SITES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FORM OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS.

MAD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX THROUGH NOON...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SWRN OK/NRN TX THIS
MORNING AS MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM H850 WINDS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
DID NOT MAKE ANY IMMEDIATE ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP/WX CHCS THIS
AFTN. HOWEVER... WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEAK SHORT WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE WRN HIGH PLAINS OF CO/KS INTO THE
PANHANDLES THIS AFTN. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE
EXITING/DISSIPATING CONVECTION. SFC DPTS REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OK... WITH SBCAPE VALUES POSSIBLE IN
THE 800-1500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS SRN OK/NRN TX THIS EVENING. THE
RECENT HRRR IS LIKELY CONTINUING TO OVER-DO CONVECTION...
HOWEVER... THE GENERAL LOCATION IS LIKELY FAIRLY ACCURATE... WITH
FOCUS ALONG THE WEAK/DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN OK. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN...
WITH MAYBE ONE OR TWO STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO-SCT TSRA WILL AFFECT KLAW AND KHBR THROUGH 14Z BEFORE
WEAKENING. ADDITIONAL ISO TSRA WILL FORM SOUTH OF KPPA-KSWO
18-05Z...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND HOT WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW FACTORS HAVE LED
TO THE FORMATION OF THESE STORMS POSSIBLY INCLUDING A WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...SLIGHT MID LEVEL WEAKNESS AND SLIGHT
DECREASE IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO BREAK A WEAK CAP...AND
SOME ELEVATED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THINK THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTH THIS MORNING. NOT SURE IF THEY WILL WEAKEN. THINK THEY WILL
STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ADDED/INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE COOLEST 700 MB TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE...AND WEAKEST CAPPING ARE FORECAST. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS...BUT GENERALLY THINK WEAK
SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CAPPING STRENGTHENS.

TODAY WILL BE HOT AND STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 90S. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY...MAINLY NEAR EAST OF A SHAWNEE
TO MARIETTA LINE ON TUESDAY WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT MAY POOL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND HEAT INDICES HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR NO RAIN
OR STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CAPPING MAY BE QUITE STRONG WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES +10 TO
+13...SO THINK STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST. A STRAY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THURSDAY
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER AREA DUE TO SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. DON/T
EXPECT ALL DAY RAINS...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR AT TIMES.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  94  70  96  74 /  10  10   0   0
HOBART OK         96  69  98  73 /  30  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  72  97  75 /  60  20   0   0
GAGE OK           92  66  97  73 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     93  69  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  95  72 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/14/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 291708
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT IS ENTERING NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WHICH WILL
BRING MORE NORTHERLY...BUT STILL LIGHT...WINDS TO NORTHERN TAF
SITES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FORM OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS.

MAD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX THROUGH NOON...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SWRN OK/NRN TX THIS
MORNING AS MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM H850 WINDS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
DID NOT MAKE ANY IMMEDIATE ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP/WX CHCS THIS
AFTN. HOWEVER... WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEAK SHORT WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE WRN HIGH PLAINS OF CO/KS INTO THE
PANHANDLES THIS AFTN. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE
EXITING/DISSIPATING CONVECTION. SFC DPTS REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OK... WITH SBCAPE VALUES POSSIBLE IN
THE 800-1500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS SRN OK/NRN TX THIS EVENING. THE
RECENT HRRR IS LIKELY CONTINUING TO OVER-DO CONVECTION...
HOWEVER... THE GENERAL LOCATION IS LIKELY FAIRLY ACCURATE... WITH
FOCUS ALONG THE WEAK/DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN OK. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN...
WITH MAYBE ONE OR TWO STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO-SCT TSRA WILL AFFECT KLAW AND KHBR THROUGH 14Z BEFORE
WEAKENING. ADDITIONAL ISO TSRA WILL FORM SOUTH OF KPPA-KSWO
18-05Z...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND HOT WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW FACTORS HAVE LED
TO THE FORMATION OF THESE STORMS POSSIBLY INCLUDING A WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...SLIGHT MID LEVEL WEAKNESS AND SLIGHT
DECREASE IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO BREAK A WEAK CAP...AND
SOME ELEVATED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THINK THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTH THIS MORNING. NOT SURE IF THEY WILL WEAKEN. THINK THEY WILL
STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ADDED/INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE COOLEST 700 MB TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE...AND WEAKEST CAPPING ARE FORECAST. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS...BUT GENERALLY THINK WEAK
SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CAPPING STRENGTHENS.

TODAY WILL BE HOT AND STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 90S. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY...MAINLY NEAR EAST OF A SHAWNEE
TO MARIETTA LINE ON TUESDAY WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT MAY POOL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND HEAT INDICES HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR NO RAIN
OR STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CAPPING MAY BE QUITE STRONG WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES +10 TO
+13...SO THINK STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST. A STRAY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THURSDAY
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER AREA DUE TO SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. DON/T
EXPECT ALL DAY RAINS...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR AT TIMES.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  94  70  96  74 /  10  10   0   0
HOBART OK         96  69  98  73 /  30  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  72  97  75 /  60  20   0   0
GAGE OK           92  66  97  73 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     93  69  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  95  72 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/14/14



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291644
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1144 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK BOUNDARY JUST S OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. MLC MOST LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED...BUT WITH COVERAGE IN QUESTION...WILL ONLY CARRY A VCTS
THERE. FSM MAY BE IMPACTED AS WELL...BUT SINCE THAT TERMINAL IS
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AT PRESENT...WILL LEAVE ALL MENTION OUT OF
THE TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING IN
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN A REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS MORNING INTO NORTH TEXAS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
REDEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
WHERE A LOCAL MAX IN INSTABILITY AND MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL EXIST. LATEST DATA AND FORECAST THOUGHTS ARE IN LINE WITH THE
GOING POP/WX FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON SO NO IMMEDIATE PLANS TO
CHANGE THESE FORECAST ELEMENTS. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

WILL UPDATE FORECAST PRODUCTS ONCE THE MORNING CONVECTION IS OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT KMLC AND KFSM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. A FEW STRONG STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS/LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAPERING OFF AND A RETURN TO MORE HOT/HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS64 KOUN 291504
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1004 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX THROUGH NOON...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SWRN OK/NRN TX THIS
MORNING AS MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM H850 WINDS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
DID NOT MAKE ANY IMMEDIATE ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP/WX CHCS THIS
AFTN. HOWEVER... WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEAK SHORT WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE WRN HIGH PLAINS OF CO/KS INTO THE
PANHANDLES THIS AFTN. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE
EXITING/DISSIPATING CONVECTION. SFC DPTS REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OK... WITH SBCAPE VALUES POSSIBLE IN
THE 800-1500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS SRN OK/NRN TX THIS EVENING. THE
RECENT HRRR IS LIKELY CONTINUING TO OVER-DO CONVECTION...
HOWEVER... THE GENERAL LOCATION IS LIKELY FAIRLY ACCURATE... WITH
FOCUS ALONG THE WEAK/DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN OK. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN...
WITH MAYBE ONE OR TWO STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO-SCT TSRA WILL AFFECT KLAW AND KHBR THROUGH 14Z BEFORE
WEAKENING. ADDITIONAL ISO TSRA WILL FORM SOUTH OF KPPA-KSWO
18-05Z...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND HOT WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW FACTORS HAVE LED
TO THE FORMATION OF THESE STORMS POSSIBLY INCLUDING A WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...SLIGHT MID LEVEL WEAKNESS AND SLIGHT
DECREASE IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO BREAK A WEAK CAP...AND
SOME ELEVATED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THINK THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTH THIS MORNING. NOT SURE IF THEY WILL WEAKEN. THINK THEY WILL
STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ADDED/INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE COOLEST 700 MB TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE...AND WEAKEST CAPPING ARE FORECAST. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS...BUT GENERALLY THINK WEAK
SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CAPPING STRENGTHENS.

TODAY WILL BE HOT AND STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 90S. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY...MAINLY NEAR EAST OF A SHAWNEE
TO MARIETTA LINE ON TUESDAY WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT MAY POOL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND HEAT INDICES HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR NO RAIN
OR STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CAPPING MAY BE QUITE STRONG WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES +10 TO
+13...SO THINK STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST. A STRAY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THURSDAY
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER AREA DUE TO SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. DON/T
EXPECT ALL DAY RAINS...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR AT TIMES.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  94  70  96  74 /  10  10   0   0
HOBART OK         96  69  98  73 /  30  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  72  97  75 /  60  20   0   0
GAGE OK           92  66  97  73 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     93  69  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  95  72 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291504
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1004 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX THROUGH NOON...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SWRN OK/NRN TX THIS
MORNING AS MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM H850 WINDS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
DID NOT MAKE ANY IMMEDIATE ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP/WX CHCS THIS
AFTN. HOWEVER... WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEAK SHORT WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE WRN HIGH PLAINS OF CO/KS INTO THE
PANHANDLES THIS AFTN. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE
EXITING/DISSIPATING CONVECTION. SFC DPTS REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OK... WITH SBCAPE VALUES POSSIBLE IN
THE 800-1500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS SRN OK/NRN TX THIS EVENING. THE
RECENT HRRR IS LIKELY CONTINUING TO OVER-DO CONVECTION...
HOWEVER... THE GENERAL LOCATION IS LIKELY FAIRLY ACCURATE... WITH
FOCUS ALONG THE WEAK/DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN OK. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN...
WITH MAYBE ONE OR TWO STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO-SCT TSRA WILL AFFECT KLAW AND KHBR THROUGH 14Z BEFORE
WEAKENING. ADDITIONAL ISO TSRA WILL FORM SOUTH OF KPPA-KSWO
18-05Z...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND HOT WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW FACTORS HAVE LED
TO THE FORMATION OF THESE STORMS POSSIBLY INCLUDING A WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...SLIGHT MID LEVEL WEAKNESS AND SLIGHT
DECREASE IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO BREAK A WEAK CAP...AND
SOME ELEVATED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THINK THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTH THIS MORNING. NOT SURE IF THEY WILL WEAKEN. THINK THEY WILL
STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ADDED/INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE COOLEST 700 MB TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE...AND WEAKEST CAPPING ARE FORECAST. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS...BUT GENERALLY THINK WEAK
SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CAPPING STRENGTHENS.

TODAY WILL BE HOT AND STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 90S. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY...MAINLY NEAR EAST OF A SHAWNEE
TO MARIETTA LINE ON TUESDAY WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT MAY POOL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND HEAT INDICES HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR NO RAIN
OR STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CAPPING MAY BE QUITE STRONG WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES +10 TO
+13...SO THINK STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST. A STRAY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THURSDAY
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER AREA DUE TO SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. DON/T
EXPECT ALL DAY RAINS...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR AT TIMES.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  94  70  96  74 /  10  10   0   0
HOBART OK         96  69  98  73 /  30  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  72  97  75 /  60  20   0   0
GAGE OK           92  66  97  73 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     93  69  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  95  72 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 291504
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1004 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX THROUGH NOON...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SWRN OK/NRN TX THIS
MORNING AS MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM H850 WINDS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
DID NOT MAKE ANY IMMEDIATE ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP/WX CHCS THIS
AFTN. HOWEVER... WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEAK SHORT WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE WRN HIGH PLAINS OF CO/KS INTO THE
PANHANDLES THIS AFTN. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE
EXITING/DISSIPATING CONVECTION. SFC DPTS REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OK... WITH SBCAPE VALUES POSSIBLE IN
THE 800-1500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS SRN OK/NRN TX THIS EVENING. THE
RECENT HRRR IS LIKELY CONTINUING TO OVER-DO CONVECTION...
HOWEVER... THE GENERAL LOCATION IS LIKELY FAIRLY ACCURATE... WITH
FOCUS ALONG THE WEAK/DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN OK. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN...
WITH MAYBE ONE OR TWO STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO-SCT TSRA WILL AFFECT KLAW AND KHBR THROUGH 14Z BEFORE
WEAKENING. ADDITIONAL ISO TSRA WILL FORM SOUTH OF KPPA-KSWO
18-05Z...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND HOT WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW FACTORS HAVE LED
TO THE FORMATION OF THESE STORMS POSSIBLY INCLUDING A WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...SLIGHT MID LEVEL WEAKNESS AND SLIGHT
DECREASE IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO BREAK A WEAK CAP...AND
SOME ELEVATED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THINK THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTH THIS MORNING. NOT SURE IF THEY WILL WEAKEN. THINK THEY WILL
STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ADDED/INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE COOLEST 700 MB TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE...AND WEAKEST CAPPING ARE FORECAST. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS...BUT GENERALLY THINK WEAK
SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CAPPING STRENGTHENS.

TODAY WILL BE HOT AND STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 90S. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY...MAINLY NEAR EAST OF A SHAWNEE
TO MARIETTA LINE ON TUESDAY WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT MAY POOL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND HEAT INDICES HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR NO RAIN
OR STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CAPPING MAY BE QUITE STRONG WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES +10 TO
+13...SO THINK STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST. A STRAY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THURSDAY
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER AREA DUE TO SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. DON/T
EXPECT ALL DAY RAINS...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR AT TIMES.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  94  70  96  74 /  10  10   0   0
HOBART OK         96  69  98  73 /  30  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  72  97  75 /  60  20   0   0
GAGE OK           92  66  97  73 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     93  69  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  95  72 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291443
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
943 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING IN
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN A REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS MORNING INTO NORTH TEXAS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
REDEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
WHERE A LOCAL MAX IN INSTABILITY AND MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL EXIST. LATEST DATA AND FORECAST THOUGHTS ARE IN LINE WITH THE
GOING POP/WX FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON SO NO IMMEDIATE PLANS TO
CHANGE THESE FORECAST ELEMENTS. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

WILL UPDATE FORECAST PRODUCTS ONCE THE MORNING CONVECTION IS OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT KMLC AND KFSM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. A FEW STRONG STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS/LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAPERING OFF AND A RETURN TO MORE HOT/HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291443
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
943 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING IN
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN A REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS MORNING INTO NORTH TEXAS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
REDEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
WHERE A LOCAL MAX IN INSTABILITY AND MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL EXIST. LATEST DATA AND FORECAST THOUGHTS ARE IN LINE WITH THE
GOING POP/WX FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON SO NO IMMEDIATE PLANS TO
CHANGE THESE FORECAST ELEMENTS. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

WILL UPDATE FORECAST PRODUCTS ONCE THE MORNING CONVECTION IS OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT KMLC AND KFSM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. A FEW STRONG STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS/LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAPERING OFF AND A RETURN TO MORE HOT/HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291443
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
943 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING IN
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN A REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS MORNING INTO NORTH TEXAS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
REDEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
WHERE A LOCAL MAX IN INSTABILITY AND MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL EXIST. LATEST DATA AND FORECAST THOUGHTS ARE IN LINE WITH THE
GOING POP/WX FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON SO NO IMMEDIATE PLANS TO
CHANGE THESE FORECAST ELEMENTS. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

WILL UPDATE FORECAST PRODUCTS ONCE THE MORNING CONVECTION IS OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT KMLC AND KFSM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. A FEW STRONG STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS/LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAPERING OFF AND A RETURN TO MORE HOT/HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291443
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
943 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING IN
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN A REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS MORNING INTO NORTH TEXAS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
REDEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
WHERE A LOCAL MAX IN INSTABILITY AND MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL EXIST. LATEST DATA AND FORECAST THOUGHTS ARE IN LINE WITH THE
GOING POP/WX FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON SO NO IMMEDIATE PLANS TO
CHANGE THESE FORECAST ELEMENTS. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

WILL UPDATE FORECAST PRODUCTS ONCE THE MORNING CONVECTION IS OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT KMLC AND KFSM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. A FEW STRONG STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS/LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAPERING OFF AND A RETURN TO MORE HOT/HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291443
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
943 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING IN
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN A REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS MORNING INTO NORTH TEXAS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
REDEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
WHERE A LOCAL MAX IN INSTABILITY AND MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL EXIST. LATEST DATA AND FORECAST THOUGHTS ARE IN LINE WITH THE
GOING POP/WX FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON SO NO IMMEDIATE PLANS TO
CHANGE THESE FORECAST ELEMENTS. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

WILL UPDATE FORECAST PRODUCTS ONCE THE MORNING CONVECTION IS OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT KMLC AND KFSM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. A FEW STRONG STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS/LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAPERING OFF AND A RETURN TO MORE HOT/HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291132
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO-SCT TSRA WILL AFFECT KLAW AND KHBR THROUGH 14Z BEFORE
WEAKENING. ADDITIONAL ISO TSRA WILL FORM SOUTH OF KPPA-KSWO
18-05Z...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND HOT WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW FACTORS HAVE LED
TO THE FORMATION OF THESE STORMS POSSIBLY INCLUDING A WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...SLIGHT MID LEVEL WEAKNESS AND SLIGHT
DECREASE IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO BREAK A WEAK CAP...AND
SOME ELEVATED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THINK THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTH THIS MORNING. NOT SURE IF THEY WILL WEAKEN. THINK THEY WILL
STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ADDED/INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE COOLEST 700 MB TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE...AND WEAKEST CAPPING ARE FORECAST. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS...BUT GENERALLY THINK WEAK
SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CAPPING STRENGTHENS.

TODAY WILL BE HOT AND STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 90S. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY...MAINLY NEAR EAST OF A SHAWNEE
TO MARIETTA LINE ON TUESDAY WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT MAY POOL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND HEAT INDICES HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR NO RAIN
OR STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CAPPING MAY BE QUITE STRONG WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES +10 TO
+13...SO THINK STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST. A STRAY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THURSDAY
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER AREA DUE TO SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. DON/T
EXPECT ALL DAY RAINS...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR AT TIMES.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  70  96  74 /  10  10   0   0
HOBART OK         97  69  98  73 /  20  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  72  97  75 /  20  20   0   0
GAGE OK           95  66  97  73 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     94  69  98  78 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  72 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291132
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO-SCT TSRA WILL AFFECT KLAW AND KHBR THROUGH 14Z BEFORE
WEAKENING. ADDITIONAL ISO TSRA WILL FORM SOUTH OF KPPA-KSWO
18-05Z...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND HOT WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW FACTORS HAVE LED
TO THE FORMATION OF THESE STORMS POSSIBLY INCLUDING A WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...SLIGHT MID LEVEL WEAKNESS AND SLIGHT
DECREASE IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO BREAK A WEAK CAP...AND
SOME ELEVATED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THINK THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTH THIS MORNING. NOT SURE IF THEY WILL WEAKEN. THINK THEY WILL
STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ADDED/INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE COOLEST 700 MB TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE...AND WEAKEST CAPPING ARE FORECAST. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS...BUT GENERALLY THINK WEAK
SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CAPPING STRENGTHENS.

TODAY WILL BE HOT AND STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 90S. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY...MAINLY NEAR EAST OF A SHAWNEE
TO MARIETTA LINE ON TUESDAY WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT MAY POOL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND HEAT INDICES HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR NO RAIN
OR STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CAPPING MAY BE QUITE STRONG WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES +10 TO
+13...SO THINK STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST. A STRAY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THURSDAY
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER AREA DUE TO SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. DON/T
EXPECT ALL DAY RAINS...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR AT TIMES.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  70  96  74 /  10  10   0   0
HOBART OK         97  69  98  73 /  20  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  72  97  75 /  20  20   0   0
GAGE OK           95  66  97  73 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     94  69  98  78 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  72 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291132
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO-SCT TSRA WILL AFFECT KLAW AND KHBR THROUGH 14Z BEFORE
WEAKENING. ADDITIONAL ISO TSRA WILL FORM SOUTH OF KPPA-KSWO
18-05Z...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND HOT WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW FACTORS HAVE LED
TO THE FORMATION OF THESE STORMS POSSIBLY INCLUDING A WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...SLIGHT MID LEVEL WEAKNESS AND SLIGHT
DECREASE IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO BREAK A WEAK CAP...AND
SOME ELEVATED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THINK THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTH THIS MORNING. NOT SURE IF THEY WILL WEAKEN. THINK THEY WILL
STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ADDED/INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE COOLEST 700 MB TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE...AND WEAKEST CAPPING ARE FORECAST. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS...BUT GENERALLY THINK WEAK
SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CAPPING STRENGTHENS.

TODAY WILL BE HOT AND STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 90S. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY...MAINLY NEAR EAST OF A SHAWNEE
TO MARIETTA LINE ON TUESDAY WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT MAY POOL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND HEAT INDICES HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR NO RAIN
OR STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CAPPING MAY BE QUITE STRONG WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES +10 TO
+13...SO THINK STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST. A STRAY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THURSDAY
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER AREA DUE TO SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. DON/T
EXPECT ALL DAY RAINS...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR AT TIMES.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  70  96  74 /  10  10   0   0
HOBART OK         97  69  98  73 /  20  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  72  97  75 /  20  20   0   0
GAGE OK           95  66  97  73 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     94  69  98  78 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  72 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291132
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO-SCT TSRA WILL AFFECT KLAW AND KHBR THROUGH 14Z BEFORE
WEAKENING. ADDITIONAL ISO TSRA WILL FORM SOUTH OF KPPA-KSWO
18-05Z...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND HOT WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW FACTORS HAVE LED
TO THE FORMATION OF THESE STORMS POSSIBLY INCLUDING A WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...SLIGHT MID LEVEL WEAKNESS AND SLIGHT
DECREASE IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO BREAK A WEAK CAP...AND
SOME ELEVATED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THINK THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTH THIS MORNING. NOT SURE IF THEY WILL WEAKEN. THINK THEY WILL
STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ADDED/INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE COOLEST 700 MB TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE...AND WEAKEST CAPPING ARE FORECAST. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS...BUT GENERALLY THINK WEAK
SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CAPPING STRENGTHENS.

TODAY WILL BE HOT AND STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 90S. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY...MAINLY NEAR EAST OF A SHAWNEE
TO MARIETTA LINE ON TUESDAY WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT MAY POOL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND HEAT INDICES HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR NO RAIN
OR STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CAPPING MAY BE QUITE STRONG WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES +10 TO
+13...SO THINK STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST. A STRAY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THURSDAY
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER AREA DUE TO SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. DON/T
EXPECT ALL DAY RAINS...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR AT TIMES.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  70  96  74 /  10  10   0   0
HOBART OK         97  69  98  73 /  20  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  72  97  75 /  20  20   0   0
GAGE OK           95  66  97  73 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     94  69  98  78 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  72 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291057
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
557 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT KMLC AND KFSM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. A FEW STRONG STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS/LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAPERING OFF AND A RETURN TO MORE HOT/HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291057
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
557 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT KMLC AND KFSM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. A FEW STRONG STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS/LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAPERING OFF AND A RETURN TO MORE HOT/HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291057
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
557 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT KMLC AND KFSM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. A FEW STRONG STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS/LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAPERING OFF AND A RETURN TO MORE HOT/HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291057
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
557 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT KMLC AND KFSM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. A FEW STRONG STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS/LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAPERING OFF AND A RETURN TO MORE HOT/HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06



000
FXUS64 KOUN 290829
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND HOT WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW FACTORS HAVE LED
TO THE FORMATION OF THESE STORMS POSSIBLY INCLUDING A WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...SLIGHT MID LEVEL WEAKNESS AND SLIGHT
DECREASE IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO BREAK A WEAK CAP...AND
SOME ELEVATED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THINK THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTH THIS MORNING. NOT SURE IF THEY WILL WEAKEN. THINK THEY WILL
STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ADDED/INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE COOLEST 700 MB TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE...AND WEAKEST CAPPING ARE FORECAST. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS...BUT GENERALLY THINK WEAK
SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CAPPING STRENGTHENS.

TODAY WILL BE HOT AND STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 90S. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY...MAINLY NEAR EAST OF A SHAWNEE
TO MARIETTA LINE ON TUESDAY WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT MAY POOL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND HEAT INDICES HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR NO RAIN
OR STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CAPPING MAY BE QUITE STRONG WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES +10 TO
+13...SO THINK STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST. A STRAY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THURSDAY
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER AREA DUE TO SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. DON/T
EXPECT ALL DAY RAINS...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR AT TIMES.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  70  96  74 /  10  10   0   0
HOBART OK         97  69  98  73 /  20  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  72  97  75 /  20  20   0   0
GAGE OK           95  66  97  73 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     94  69  98  78 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  72 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 290829
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND HOT WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW FACTORS HAVE LED
TO THE FORMATION OF THESE STORMS POSSIBLY INCLUDING A WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...SLIGHT MID LEVEL WEAKNESS AND SLIGHT
DECREASE IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO BREAK A WEAK CAP...AND
SOME ELEVATED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THINK THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTH THIS MORNING. NOT SURE IF THEY WILL WEAKEN. THINK THEY WILL
STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ADDED/INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE COOLEST 700 MB TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE...AND WEAKEST CAPPING ARE FORECAST. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS...BUT GENERALLY THINK WEAK
SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CAPPING STRENGTHENS.

TODAY WILL BE HOT AND STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 90S. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY...MAINLY NEAR EAST OF A SHAWNEE
TO MARIETTA LINE ON TUESDAY WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT MAY POOL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND HEAT INDICES HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR NO RAIN
OR STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CAPPING MAY BE QUITE STRONG WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES +10 TO
+13...SO THINK STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST. A STRAY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THURSDAY
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER AREA DUE TO SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. DON/T
EXPECT ALL DAY RAINS...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR AT TIMES.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  70  96  74 /  10  10   0   0
HOBART OK         97  69  98  73 /  20  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  72  97  75 /  20  20   0   0
GAGE OK           95  66  97  73 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     94  69  98  78 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  72 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 290826
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
326 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. A FEW STRONG STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS/LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAPERING OFF AND A RETURN TO MORE HOT/HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  70  96  77 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   94  72  95  74 /  20  20  30  20
MLC   92  71  93  75 /  30  30  10   0
BVO   92  63  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   88  60  91  72 /  10  10  20  20
BYV   88  64  91  70 /  10  10  20  20
MKO   89  70  93  73 /  10  10  10   0
MIO   91  65  94  74 /  10  10  10  10
F10   92  72  94  74 /  20  20  10   0
HHW   92  72  93  74 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12



000
FXUS64 KTSA 290826
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
326 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. A FEW STRONG STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS/LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAPERING OFF AND A RETURN TO MORE HOT/HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  70  96  77 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   94  72  95  74 /  20  20  30  20
MLC   92  71  93  75 /  30  30  10   0
BVO   92  63  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   88  60  91  72 /  10  10  20  20
BYV   88  64  91  70 /  10  10  20  20
MKO   89  70  93  73 /  10  10  10   0
MIO   91  65  94  74 /  10  10  10  10
F10   92  72  94  74 /  20  20  10   0
HHW   92  72  93  74 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 290408
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1108 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN
CHANGE FOR THE 06Z FORECAST WAS TO INSERT PROB30`S FOR STORM
POTENTIAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WEAK FRONT ACRS SE OK/W
CNTRL AR...AFFECTING THE KMLC AND KFSM TAF SITES.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A DOWN
TREND AND NO LONGER A THREAT.  WATCH FOR PORTIONS NE
OK AND NW AR DROPPED WITH ZONE UPDATE. STILL LOW LOW
CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHERN AREAS UNTIL ABOUT 1 AM.  GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOME INCREASE IN
MID CLOUD WITH CIGS GENERALLY AOA 8KFT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BOUNDARY. CHANCE OF STORMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN ANY TAF EXCPT KBVO AND POSSIBLY KROG/KXNA WHERE A VCTS MENTION
IS INCLUDED CLOSER TO KS AND MO BORDERS.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SE KS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED ON THE BOUNDARY. PRECEDING
AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER
AND 30-40KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
DOWNBURST WINDS FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
FORCING COUPLED WITH A RATHER QUICK STRENGTHENING OF INHIBITION
AROUND SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY PUSHES TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOCUSING AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AGAIN DEVELOP PRIMARILY FOR
SE OK THROUGH WESTERN AR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY.

UPPER RIDGING / WARMING PROFILES SPREAD EASTWARD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE PUSHED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WARMEST MID LEVEL TEMPS. A STRONG WAVE LOOKS TO
SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL ZONE PUSHING INTO NE OK DURING THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WILL REDUCE THE HEAT AND GIVE MOST PLACES A GOOD
SHOT AT PRECIP SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  70  95 /  20   0   0  10
FSM   70  93  71  94 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   69  91  71  93 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   66  93  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
FYV   66  88  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   67  88  65  90 /  20   0   0  10
MKO   69  89  69  92 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   67  91  66  93 /  20   0   0   0
F10   69  91  70  93 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   69  91  72  93 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 290408
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1108 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN
CHANGE FOR THE 06Z FORECAST WAS TO INSERT PROB30`S FOR STORM
POTENTIAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WEAK FRONT ACRS SE OK/W
CNTRL AR...AFFECTING THE KMLC AND KFSM TAF SITES.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A DOWN
TREND AND NO LONGER A THREAT.  WATCH FOR PORTIONS NE
OK AND NW AR DROPPED WITH ZONE UPDATE. STILL LOW LOW
CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHERN AREAS UNTIL ABOUT 1 AM.  GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOME INCREASE IN
MID CLOUD WITH CIGS GENERALLY AOA 8KFT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BOUNDARY. CHANCE OF STORMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN ANY TAF EXCPT KBVO AND POSSIBLY KROG/KXNA WHERE A VCTS MENTION
IS INCLUDED CLOSER TO KS AND MO BORDERS.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SE KS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED ON THE BOUNDARY. PRECEDING
AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER
AND 30-40KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
DOWNBURST WINDS FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
FORCING COUPLED WITH A RATHER QUICK STRENGTHENING OF INHIBITION
AROUND SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY PUSHES TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOCUSING AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AGAIN DEVELOP PRIMARILY FOR
SE OK THROUGH WESTERN AR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY.

UPPER RIDGING / WARMING PROFILES SPREAD EASTWARD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE PUSHED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WARMEST MID LEVEL TEMPS. A STRONG WAVE LOOKS TO
SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL ZONE PUSHING INTO NE OK DURING THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WILL REDUCE THE HEAT AND GIVE MOST PLACES A GOOD
SHOT AT PRECIP SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  70  95 /  20   0   0  10
FSM   70  93  71  94 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   69  91  71  93 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   66  93  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
FYV   66  88  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   67  88  65  90 /  20   0   0  10
MKO   69  89  69  92 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   67  91  66  93 /  20   0   0   0
F10   69  91  70  93 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   69  91  72  93 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 290408
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1108 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN
CHANGE FOR THE 06Z FORECAST WAS TO INSERT PROB30`S FOR STORM
POTENTIAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WEAK FRONT ACRS SE OK/W
CNTRL AR...AFFECTING THE KMLC AND KFSM TAF SITES.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A DOWN
TREND AND NO LONGER A THREAT.  WATCH FOR PORTIONS NE
OK AND NW AR DROPPED WITH ZONE UPDATE. STILL LOW LOW
CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHERN AREAS UNTIL ABOUT 1 AM.  GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOME INCREASE IN
MID CLOUD WITH CIGS GENERALLY AOA 8KFT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BOUNDARY. CHANCE OF STORMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN ANY TAF EXCPT KBVO AND POSSIBLY KROG/KXNA WHERE A VCTS MENTION
IS INCLUDED CLOSER TO KS AND MO BORDERS.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SE KS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED ON THE BOUNDARY. PRECEDING
AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER
AND 30-40KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
DOWNBURST WINDS FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
FORCING COUPLED WITH A RATHER QUICK STRENGTHENING OF INHIBITION
AROUND SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY PUSHES TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOCUSING AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AGAIN DEVELOP PRIMARILY FOR
SE OK THROUGH WESTERN AR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY.

UPPER RIDGING / WARMING PROFILES SPREAD EASTWARD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE PUSHED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WARMEST MID LEVEL TEMPS. A STRONG WAVE LOOKS TO
SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL ZONE PUSHING INTO NE OK DURING THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WILL REDUCE THE HEAT AND GIVE MOST PLACES A GOOD
SHOT AT PRECIP SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  70  95 /  20   0   0  10
FSM   70  93  71  94 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   69  91  71  93 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   66  93  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
FYV   66  88  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   67  88  65  90 /  20   0   0  10
MKO   69  89  69  92 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   67  91  66  93 /  20   0   0   0
F10   69  91  70  93 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   69  91  72  93 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 290408
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1108 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN
CHANGE FOR THE 06Z FORECAST WAS TO INSERT PROB30`S FOR STORM
POTENTIAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WEAK FRONT ACRS SE OK/W
CNTRL AR...AFFECTING THE KMLC AND KFSM TAF SITES.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A DOWN
TREND AND NO LONGER A THREAT.  WATCH FOR PORTIONS NE
OK AND NW AR DROPPED WITH ZONE UPDATE. STILL LOW LOW
CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHERN AREAS UNTIL ABOUT 1 AM.  GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOME INCREASE IN
MID CLOUD WITH CIGS GENERALLY AOA 8KFT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BOUNDARY. CHANCE OF STORMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN ANY TAF EXCPT KBVO AND POSSIBLY KROG/KXNA WHERE A VCTS MENTION
IS INCLUDED CLOSER TO KS AND MO BORDERS.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SE KS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED ON THE BOUNDARY. PRECEDING
AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER
AND 30-40KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
DOWNBURST WINDS FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
FORCING COUPLED WITH A RATHER QUICK STRENGTHENING OF INHIBITION
AROUND SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY PUSHES TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOCUSING AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AGAIN DEVELOP PRIMARILY FOR
SE OK THROUGH WESTERN AR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY.

UPPER RIDGING / WARMING PROFILES SPREAD EASTWARD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE PUSHED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WARMEST MID LEVEL TEMPS. A STRONG WAVE LOOKS TO
SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL ZONE PUSHING INTO NE OK DURING THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WILL REDUCE THE HEAT AND GIVE MOST PLACES A GOOD
SHOT AT PRECIP SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  70  95 /  20   0   0  10
FSM   70  93  71  94 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   69  91  71  93 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   66  93  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
FYV   66  88  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   67  88  65  90 /  20   0   0  10
MKO   69  89  69  92 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   67  91  66  93 /  20   0   0   0
F10   69  91  70  93 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   69  91  72  93 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 290327
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1027 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MODELS
WOULD INDICATE THAT CURRENT ISOLATED STORMS WILL END AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER 6Z WHILE OTHERS INDICATE ISO STORMS COULD REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT... EITHER WAY CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR MENTION
IN TAFS ATT BUT WILL CONT TO MONITOR FOR ANY NEEDED LAST MINUTE
CHANGES. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY ALONG AND S
OF I-40 BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST TAFS ATT AS
WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES ARE EVIDENT ON KVNX RADAR OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF KANSAS. INTERACTION
OF THESE BOUNDARIES IN A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
COVERAGE SHOULD BE REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THE 20 PERCENT POPS
ALREADY IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH NIGHTTIME STABILIZATION SHOULD KILL
OFF THE STORMS BY MIDNIGHT...DO NOT YET HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
REMOVE THE 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE STILLWATER/PONCA CITY AREA AFTER
06Z.

AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED...EXCEPT AS NOTED REGARDING POPS AFTER 06Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN OK THROUGH SUNSET
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
ALONG A WIND SHIFT/SFC BOUNDARY. LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AND
ASSOCIATED LARGE DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF OVER 1300 J/KG INDICATE
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS. EXPECT
STORMS TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...DOWNDRAFT
CAPE VALUES AT NEARLY 1500 J/KG AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INDICATE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...FORECAST
MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT NEARLY 8
C/KM INDICATE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A RISK. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE WITH 25-27C 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND 28-31C ON WEDNESDAY. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT LOOKS LIKELY
NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY. LATEST GUIDANCE STILL
HAS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WITH A TROUGH
OVERHEAD A DISSIPATING/WEAKENING FRONT. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  94  70  96 /  10  20  20   0
HOBART OK         68  96  69  98 /  10  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  96  72  97 /  10  20  30   0
GAGE OK           66  94  66  97 /  20  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     69  93  69  98 /  20   0   0  10
DURANT OK         68  94  71  95 /   0  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 290327
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1027 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MODELS
WOULD INDICATE THAT CURRENT ISOLATED STORMS WILL END AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER 6Z WHILE OTHERS INDICATE ISO STORMS COULD REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT... EITHER WAY CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR MENTION
IN TAFS ATT BUT WILL CONT TO MONITOR FOR ANY NEEDED LAST MINUTE
CHANGES. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY ALONG AND S
OF I-40 BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST TAFS ATT AS
WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES ARE EVIDENT ON KVNX RADAR OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF KANSAS. INTERACTION
OF THESE BOUNDARIES IN A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
COVERAGE SHOULD BE REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THE 20 PERCENT POPS
ALREADY IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH NIGHTTIME STABILIZATION SHOULD KILL
OFF THE STORMS BY MIDNIGHT...DO NOT YET HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
REMOVE THE 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE STILLWATER/PONCA CITY AREA AFTER
06Z.

AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED...EXCEPT AS NOTED REGARDING POPS AFTER 06Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN OK THROUGH SUNSET
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
ALONG A WIND SHIFT/SFC BOUNDARY. LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AND
ASSOCIATED LARGE DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF OVER 1300 J/KG INDICATE
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS. EXPECT
STORMS TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...DOWNDRAFT
CAPE VALUES AT NEARLY 1500 J/KG AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INDICATE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...FORECAST
MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT NEARLY 8
C/KM INDICATE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A RISK. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE WITH 25-27C 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND 28-31C ON WEDNESDAY. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT LOOKS LIKELY
NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY. LATEST GUIDANCE STILL
HAS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WITH A TROUGH
OVERHEAD A DISSIPATING/WEAKENING FRONT. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  94  70  96 /  10  20  20   0
HOBART OK         68  96  69  98 /  10  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  96  72  97 /  10  20  30   0
GAGE OK           66  94  66  97 /  20  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     69  93  69  98 /  20   0   0  10
DURANT OK         68  94  71  95 /   0  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 290327
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1027 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MODELS
WOULD INDICATE THAT CURRENT ISOLATED STORMS WILL END AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER 6Z WHILE OTHERS INDICATE ISO STORMS COULD REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT... EITHER WAY CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR MENTION
IN TAFS ATT BUT WILL CONT TO MONITOR FOR ANY NEEDED LAST MINUTE
CHANGES. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY ALONG AND S
OF I-40 BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST TAFS ATT AS
WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES ARE EVIDENT ON KVNX RADAR OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF KANSAS. INTERACTION
OF THESE BOUNDARIES IN A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
COVERAGE SHOULD BE REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THE 20 PERCENT POPS
ALREADY IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH NIGHTTIME STABILIZATION SHOULD KILL
OFF THE STORMS BY MIDNIGHT...DO NOT YET HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
REMOVE THE 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE STILLWATER/PONCA CITY AREA AFTER
06Z.

AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED...EXCEPT AS NOTED REGARDING POPS AFTER 06Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN OK THROUGH SUNSET
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
ALONG A WIND SHIFT/SFC BOUNDARY. LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AND
ASSOCIATED LARGE DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF OVER 1300 J/KG INDICATE
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS. EXPECT
STORMS TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...DOWNDRAFT
CAPE VALUES AT NEARLY 1500 J/KG AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INDICATE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...FORECAST
MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT NEARLY 8
C/KM INDICATE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A RISK. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE WITH 25-27C 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND 28-31C ON WEDNESDAY. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT LOOKS LIKELY
NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY. LATEST GUIDANCE STILL
HAS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WITH A TROUGH
OVERHEAD A DISSIPATING/WEAKENING FRONT. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  94  70  96 /  10  20  20   0
HOBART OK         68  96  69  98 /  10  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  96  72  97 /  10  20  30   0
GAGE OK           66  94  66  97 /  20  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     69  93  69  98 /  20   0   0  10
DURANT OK         68  94  71  95 /   0  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 290327
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1027 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MODELS
WOULD INDICATE THAT CURRENT ISOLATED STORMS WILL END AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER 6Z WHILE OTHERS INDICATE ISO STORMS COULD REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT... EITHER WAY CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR MENTION
IN TAFS ATT BUT WILL CONT TO MONITOR FOR ANY NEEDED LAST MINUTE
CHANGES. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY ALONG AND S
OF I-40 BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST TAFS ATT AS
WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES ARE EVIDENT ON KVNX RADAR OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF KANSAS. INTERACTION
OF THESE BOUNDARIES IN A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
COVERAGE SHOULD BE REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THE 20 PERCENT POPS
ALREADY IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH NIGHTTIME STABILIZATION SHOULD KILL
OFF THE STORMS BY MIDNIGHT...DO NOT YET HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
REMOVE THE 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE STILLWATER/PONCA CITY AREA AFTER
06Z.

AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED...EXCEPT AS NOTED REGARDING POPS AFTER 06Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN OK THROUGH SUNSET
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
ALONG A WIND SHIFT/SFC BOUNDARY. LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AND
ASSOCIATED LARGE DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF OVER 1300 J/KG INDICATE
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS. EXPECT
STORMS TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...DOWNDRAFT
CAPE VALUES AT NEARLY 1500 J/KG AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INDICATE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...FORECAST
MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT NEARLY 8
C/KM INDICATE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A RISK. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE WITH 25-27C 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND 28-31C ON WEDNESDAY. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT LOOKS LIKELY
NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY. LATEST GUIDANCE STILL
HAS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WITH A TROUGH
OVERHEAD A DISSIPATING/WEAKENING FRONT. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  94  70  96 /  10  20  20   0
HOBART OK         68  96  69  98 /  10  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  96  72  97 /  10  20  30   0
GAGE OK           66  94  66  97 /  20  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     69  93  69  98 /  20   0   0  10
DURANT OK         68  94  71  95 /   0  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25/25




000
FXUS64 KTSA 290249
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
949 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A DOWN
TREND AND NO LONGER A THREAT.  WATCH FOR PORTIONS NE
OK AND NW AR DROPPED WITH ZONE UPDATE. STILL LOW LOW
CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHERN AREAS UNTIL ABOUT 1 AM.  GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOME INCREASE IN
MID CLOUD WITH CIGS GENERALLY AOA 8KFT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BOUNDARY. CHANCE OF STORMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN ANY TAF EXCPT KBVO AND POSSIBLY KROG/KXNA WHERE A VCTS MENTION
IS INCLUDED CLOSER TO KS AND MO BORDERS.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SE KS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED ON THE BOUNDARY. PRECEDING
AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER
AND 30-40KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
DOWNBURST WINDS FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
FORCING COUPLED WITH A RATHER QUICK STRENGTHENING OF INHIBITION
AROUND SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY PUSHES TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOCUSING AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AGAIN DEVELOP PRIMARILY FOR
SE OK THROUGH WESTERN AR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY.

UPPER RIDGING / WARMING PROFILES SPREAD EASTWARD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE PUSHED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WARMEST MID LEVEL TEMPS. A STRONG WAVE LOOKS TO
SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL ZONE PUSHING INTO NE OK DURING THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WILL REDUCE THE HEAT AND GIVE MOST PLACES A GOOD
SHOT AT PRECIP SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  70  95 /  20   0   0  10
FSM   70  93  71  94 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   69  91  71  93 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   66  93  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
FYV   66  88  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   67  88  65  90 /  20   0   0  10
MKO   69  89  69  92 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   67  91  66  93 /  20   0   0   0
F10   69  91  70  93 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   69  91  72  93 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21



000
FXUS64 KTSA 290249
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
949 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A DOWN
TREND AND NO LONGER A THREAT.  WATCH FOR PORTIONS NE
OK AND NW AR DROPPED WITH ZONE UPDATE. STILL LOW LOW
CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHERN AREAS UNTIL ABOUT 1 AM.  GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOME INCREASE IN
MID CLOUD WITH CIGS GENERALLY AOA 8KFT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BOUNDARY. CHANCE OF STORMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN ANY TAF EXCPT KBVO AND POSSIBLY KROG/KXNA WHERE A VCTS MENTION
IS INCLUDED CLOSER TO KS AND MO BORDERS.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SE KS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED ON THE BOUNDARY. PRECEDING
AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER
AND 30-40KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
DOWNBURST WINDS FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
FORCING COUPLED WITH A RATHER QUICK STRENGTHENING OF INHIBITION
AROUND SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY PUSHES TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOCUSING AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AGAIN DEVELOP PRIMARILY FOR
SE OK THROUGH WESTERN AR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY.

UPPER RIDGING / WARMING PROFILES SPREAD EASTWARD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE PUSHED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WARMEST MID LEVEL TEMPS. A STRONG WAVE LOOKS TO
SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL ZONE PUSHING INTO NE OK DURING THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WILL REDUCE THE HEAT AND GIVE MOST PLACES A GOOD
SHOT AT PRECIP SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  70  95 /  20   0   0  10
FSM   70  93  71  94 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   69  91  71  93 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   66  93  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
FYV   66  88  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   67  88  65  90 /  20   0   0  10
MKO   69  89  69  92 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   67  91  66  93 /  20   0   0   0
F10   69  91  70  93 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   69  91  72  93 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21




000
FXUS64 KOUN 290239
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
939 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES ARE EVIDENT ON KVNX RADAR OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF KANSAS. INTERACTION
OF THESE BOUNDARIES IN A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
COVERAGE SHOULD BE REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THE 20 PERCENT POPS
ALREADY IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH NIGHTTIME STABILIZATION SHOULD KILL
OFF THE STORMS BY MIDNIGHT...DO NOT YET HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
REMOVE THE 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE STILLWATER/PONCA CITY AREA AFTER
06Z.

AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED...EXCEPT AS NOTED REGARDING POPS AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN OK THROUGH SUNSET
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
ALONG A WIND SHIFT/SFC BOUNDARY. LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AND
ASSOCIATED LARGE DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF OVER 1300 J/KG INDICATE
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS. EXPECT
STORMS TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...DOWNDRAFT
CAPE VALUES AT NEARLY 1500 J/KG AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INDICATE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...FORECAST
MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT NEARLY 8
C/KM INDICATE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A RISK. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE WITH 25-27C 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND 28-31C ON WEDNESDAY. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT LOOKS LIKELY
NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY. LATEST GUIDANCE STILL
HAS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WITH A TROUGH
OVERHEAD A DISSIPATING/WEAKENING FRONT. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  94  70  96 /  10  20  20   0
HOBART OK         68  96  69  98 /  10  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  96  72  97 /  10  20  30   0
GAGE OK           66  94  66  97 /  20  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     69  93  69  98 /  20   0   0  10
DURANT OK         68  94  71  95 /   0  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 290239
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
939 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES ARE EVIDENT ON KVNX RADAR OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF KANSAS. INTERACTION
OF THESE BOUNDARIES IN A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
COVERAGE SHOULD BE REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THE 20 PERCENT POPS
ALREADY IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH NIGHTTIME STABILIZATION SHOULD KILL
OFF THE STORMS BY MIDNIGHT...DO NOT YET HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
REMOVE THE 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE STILLWATER/PONCA CITY AREA AFTER
06Z.

AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED...EXCEPT AS NOTED REGARDING POPS AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN OK THROUGH SUNSET
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
ALONG A WIND SHIFT/SFC BOUNDARY. LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AND
ASSOCIATED LARGE DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF OVER 1300 J/KG INDICATE
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS. EXPECT
STORMS TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...DOWNDRAFT
CAPE VALUES AT NEARLY 1500 J/KG AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INDICATE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...FORECAST
MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT NEARLY 8
C/KM INDICATE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A RISK. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE WITH 25-27C 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND 28-31C ON WEDNESDAY. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT LOOKS LIKELY
NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY. LATEST GUIDANCE STILL
HAS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WITH A TROUGH
OVERHEAD A DISSIPATING/WEAKENING FRONT. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  94  70  96 /  10  20  20   0
HOBART OK         68  96  69  98 /  10  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  96  72  97 /  10  20  30   0
GAGE OK           66  94  66  97 /  20  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     69  93  69  98 /  20   0   0  10
DURANT OK         68  94  71  95 /   0  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 282323
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
623 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN OK THROUGH SUNSET
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
ALONG A WIND SHIFT/SFC BOUNDARY. LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AND
ASSOCIATED LARGE DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF OVER 1300 J/KG INDICATE
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS. EXPECT
STORMS TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...DOWNDRAFT
CAPE VALUES AT NEARLY 1500 J/KG AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INDICATE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...FORECAST
MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT NEARLY 8
C/KM INDICATE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A RISK. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE WITH 25-27C 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND 28-31C ON WEDNESDAY. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT LOOKS LIKELY
NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY. LATEST GUIDANCE STILL
HAS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WITH A TROUGH
OVERHEAD A DISSIPATING/WEAKENING FRONT. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  94  70  96 /  10  20  20   0
HOBART OK         68  96  69  98 /  10  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  96  72  97 /  10  20  30   0
GAGE OK           66  94  66  97 /  20  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     69  93  69  98 /  20   0   0  10
DURANT OK         68  94  71  95 /   0  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 282323
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
623 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN OK THROUGH SUNSET
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
ALONG A WIND SHIFT/SFC BOUNDARY. LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AND
ASSOCIATED LARGE DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF OVER 1300 J/KG INDICATE
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS. EXPECT
STORMS TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...DOWNDRAFT
CAPE VALUES AT NEARLY 1500 J/KG AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INDICATE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...FORECAST
MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT NEARLY 8
C/KM INDICATE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A RISK. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE WITH 25-27C 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND 28-31C ON WEDNESDAY. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT LOOKS LIKELY
NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY. LATEST GUIDANCE STILL
HAS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WITH A TROUGH
OVERHEAD A DISSIPATING/WEAKENING FRONT. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  94  70  96 /  10  20  20   0
HOBART OK         68  96  69  98 /  10  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  96  72  97 /  10  20  30   0
GAGE OK           66  94  66  97 /  20  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     69  93  69  98 /  20   0   0  10
DURANT OK         68  94  71  95 /   0  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25/25




000
FXUS64 KTSA 282256
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
556 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOME INCREASE IN
MID CLOUD WITH CIGS GENERALLY AOA 8KFT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BOUNDARY. CHANCE OF STORMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN ANY TAF EXCPT KBVO AND POSSIBLY KROG/KXNA WHERE A VCTS MENTION
IS INCLUDED CLOSER TO KS AND MO BORDERS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SE KS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED ON THE BOUNDARY. PRECEDING
AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER
AND 30-40KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
DOWNBURST WINDS FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
FORCING COUPLED WITH A RATHER QUICK STRENGTHENING OF INHIBITION
AROUND SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY PUSHES TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOCUSING AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AGAIN DEVELOP PRIMARILY FOR
SE OK THROUGH WESTERN AR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY.

UPPER RIDGING / WARMING PROFILES SPREAD EASTWARD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE PUSHED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WARMEST MID LEVEL TEMPS. A STRONG WAVE LOOKS TO
SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL ZONE PUSHING INTO NE OK DURING THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WILL REDUCE THE HEAT AND GIVE MOST PLACES A GOOD
SHOT AT PRECIP SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  70  95 /  20   0   0  10
FSM   70  93  71  94 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   69  91  71  93 /   0  20  10  10
BVO   66  93  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
FYV   66  88  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   67  88  65  90 /  30   0   0  10
MKO   69  89  69  92 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   67  91  66  93 /  30   0   0   0
F10   69  91  70  93 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   69  91  72  93 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 282256
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
556 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOME INCREASE IN
MID CLOUD WITH CIGS GENERALLY AOA 8KFT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BOUNDARY. CHANCE OF STORMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN ANY TAF EXCPT KBVO AND POSSIBLY KROG/KXNA WHERE A VCTS MENTION
IS INCLUDED CLOSER TO KS AND MO BORDERS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SE KS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED ON THE BOUNDARY. PRECEDING
AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER
AND 30-40KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
DOWNBURST WINDS FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
FORCING COUPLED WITH A RATHER QUICK STRENGTHENING OF INHIBITION
AROUND SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY PUSHES TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOCUSING AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AGAIN DEVELOP PRIMARILY FOR
SE OK THROUGH WESTERN AR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY.

UPPER RIDGING / WARMING PROFILES SPREAD EASTWARD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE PUSHED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WARMEST MID LEVEL TEMPS. A STRONG WAVE LOOKS TO
SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL ZONE PUSHING INTO NE OK DURING THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WILL REDUCE THE HEAT AND GIVE MOST PLACES A GOOD
SHOT AT PRECIP SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  70  95 /  20   0   0  10
FSM   70  93  71  94 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   69  91  71  93 /   0  20  10  10
BVO   66  93  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
FYV   66  88  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   67  88  65  90 /  30   0   0  10
MKO   69  89  69  92 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   67  91  66  93 /  30   0   0   0
F10   69  91  70  93 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   69  91  72  93 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 282040
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
ALONG A WIND SHIFT/SFC BOUNDARY. LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AND
ASSOCIATED LARGE DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF OVER 1300 J/KG INDICATE
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS. EXPECT
STORMS TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...DOWNDRAFT
CAPE VALUES AT NEARLY 1500 J/KG AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INDICATE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...FORECAST
MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT NEARLY 8
C/KM INDICATE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A RISK. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE WITH 25-27C 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND 28-31C ON WEDNESDAY. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT LOOKS LIKELY
NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY. LATEST GUIDANCE STILL
HAS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WITH A TROUGH
OVERHEAD A DISSIPATING/WEAKENING FRONT. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  94  70  96 /  10  20  20   0
HOBART OK         68  96  69  98 /  10  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  96  72  97 /  10  20  30   0
GAGE OK           66  94  66  97 /  20  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     69  93  69  98 /  20   0   0  10
DURANT OK         68  94  71  95 /   0  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 282040
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
ALONG A WIND SHIFT/SFC BOUNDARY. LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AND
ASSOCIATED LARGE DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF OVER 1300 J/KG INDICATE
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS. EXPECT
STORMS TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...DOWNDRAFT
CAPE VALUES AT NEARLY 1500 J/KG AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INDICATE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...FORECAST
MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT NEARLY 8
C/KM INDICATE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A RISK. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE WITH 25-27C 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND 28-31C ON WEDNESDAY. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT LOOKS LIKELY
NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY. LATEST GUIDANCE STILL
HAS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WITH A TROUGH
OVERHEAD A DISSIPATING/WEAKENING FRONT. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  94  70  96 /  10  20  20   0
HOBART OK         68  96  69  98 /  10  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  96  72  97 /  10  20  30   0
GAGE OK           66  94  66  97 /  20  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     69  93  69  98 /  20   0   0  10
DURANT OK         68  94  71  95 /   0  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 282039
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
339 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SE KS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED ON THE BOUNDARY. PRECEDING
AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER
AND 30-40KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
DOWNBURST WINDS FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
FORCING COUPLED WITH A RATHER QUICK STRENGTHENING OF INHIBITION
AROUND SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY PUSHES TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOCUSING AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AGAIN DEVELOP PRIMARILY FOR
SE OK THROUGH WESTERN AR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY.

UPPER RIDGING / WARMING PROFILES SPREAD EASTWARD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE PUSHED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WARMEST MID LEVEL TEMPS. A STRONG WAVE LOOKS TO
SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL ZONE PUSHING INTO NE OK DURING THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WILL REDUCE THE HEAT AND GIVE MOST PLACES A GOOD
SHOT AT PRECIP SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  70  95 /  20   0   0  10
FSM   70  93  71  94 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   69  91  71  93 /   0  20  10  10
BVO   66  93  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
FYV   66  88  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   67  88  65  90 /  30   0   0  10
MKO   69  89  69  92 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   67  91  66  93 /  30   0   0   0
F10   69  91  70  93 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   69  91  72  93 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 282039
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
339 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SE KS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED ON THE BOUNDARY. PRECEDING
AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER
AND 30-40KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
DOWNBURST WINDS FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
FORCING COUPLED WITH A RATHER QUICK STRENGTHENING OF INHIBITION
AROUND SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY PUSHES TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOCUSING AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AGAIN DEVELOP PRIMARILY FOR
SE OK THROUGH WESTERN AR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY.

UPPER RIDGING / WARMING PROFILES SPREAD EASTWARD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE PUSHED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WARMEST MID LEVEL TEMPS. A STRONG WAVE LOOKS TO
SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL ZONE PUSHING INTO NE OK DURING THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WILL REDUCE THE HEAT AND GIVE MOST PLACES A GOOD
SHOT AT PRECIP SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  70  95 /  20   0   0  10
FSM   70  93  71  94 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   69  91  71  93 /   0  20  10  10
BVO   66  93  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
FYV   66  88  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   67  88  65  90 /  30   0   0  10
MKO   69  89  69  92 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   67  91  66  93 /  30   0   0   0
F10   69  91  70  93 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   69  91  72  93 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281747
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT KGAG/KWWR/KPNC...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN TAFS. WIND SHIFT WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...AND MAY BE IN THE
VICINITY OF KOKC/KOUN/KCSM/KHBR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED MORNING PRECIP/WX...

DISCUSSION...
REMOVED ISO THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTN... LINE OF CU THAT DEVELOPED
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS WEAKENED AND SLOWLY DISSIPATED AS IT
MOVED INTO NW/W OK THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS ALSO BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY FOR NWRN OK THIS AM. HELD OF CHANGES TO SLGT CHCS
THIS AFTN ACROSS NRN OK... SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST SCT/ISO DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION. STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL... WEAK SHEAR/INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTN/EVENING. IF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
THEY COULD POSE A SEVERE WIND THREAT... WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES
NEAR 10 TO 11 C/KM.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO TSRA WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 21-12Z. DID NOT MENTION IN
TAFS AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY
AFFECTING A GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.

THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  68  93  71 /   0  20  20  10
HOBART OK         93  67  97  69 /   0  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  70  95  72 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           93  67  96  67 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  68  94  70 /  20  20  10   0
DURANT OK         89  69  93  70 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/10/10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281747
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT KGAG/KWWR/KPNC...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN TAFS. WIND SHIFT WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...AND MAY BE IN THE
VICINITY OF KOKC/KOUN/KCSM/KHBR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED MORNING PRECIP/WX...

DISCUSSION...
REMOVED ISO THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTN... LINE OF CU THAT DEVELOPED
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS WEAKENED AND SLOWLY DISSIPATED AS IT
MOVED INTO NW/W OK THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS ALSO BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY FOR NWRN OK THIS AM. HELD OF CHANGES TO SLGT CHCS
THIS AFTN ACROSS NRN OK... SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST SCT/ISO DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION. STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL... WEAK SHEAR/INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTN/EVENING. IF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
THEY COULD POSE A SEVERE WIND THREAT... WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES
NEAR 10 TO 11 C/KM.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO TSRA WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 21-12Z. DID NOT MENTION IN
TAFS AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY
AFFECTING A GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.

THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  68  93  71 /   0  20  20  10
HOBART OK         93  67  97  69 /   0  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  70  95  72 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           93  67  96  67 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  68  94  70 /  20  20  10   0
DURANT OK         89  69  93  70 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/10/10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281747
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT KGAG/KWWR/KPNC...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN TAFS. WIND SHIFT WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...AND MAY BE IN THE
VICINITY OF KOKC/KOUN/KCSM/KHBR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED MORNING PRECIP/WX...

DISCUSSION...
REMOVED ISO THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTN... LINE OF CU THAT DEVELOPED
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS WEAKENED AND SLOWLY DISSIPATED AS IT
MOVED INTO NW/W OK THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS ALSO BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY FOR NWRN OK THIS AM. HELD OF CHANGES TO SLGT CHCS
THIS AFTN ACROSS NRN OK... SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST SCT/ISO DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION. STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL... WEAK SHEAR/INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTN/EVENING. IF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
THEY COULD POSE A SEVERE WIND THREAT... WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES
NEAR 10 TO 11 C/KM.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO TSRA WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 21-12Z. DID NOT MENTION IN
TAFS AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY
AFFECTING A GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.

THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  68  93  71 /   0  20  20  10
HOBART OK         93  67  97  69 /   0  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  70  95  72 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           93  67  96  67 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  68  94  70 /  20  20  10   0
DURANT OK         89  69  93  70 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/10/10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281747
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT KGAG/KWWR/KPNC...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN TAFS. WIND SHIFT WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...AND MAY BE IN THE
VICINITY OF KOKC/KOUN/KCSM/KHBR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED MORNING PRECIP/WX...

DISCUSSION...
REMOVED ISO THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTN... LINE OF CU THAT DEVELOPED
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS WEAKENED AND SLOWLY DISSIPATED AS IT
MOVED INTO NW/W OK THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS ALSO BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY FOR NWRN OK THIS AM. HELD OF CHANGES TO SLGT CHCS
THIS AFTN ACROSS NRN OK... SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST SCT/ISO DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION. STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL... WEAK SHEAR/INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTN/EVENING. IF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
THEY COULD POSE A SEVERE WIND THREAT... WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES
NEAR 10 TO 11 C/KM.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO TSRA WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 21-12Z. DID NOT MENTION IN
TAFS AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY
AFFECTING A GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.

THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  68  93  71 /   0  20  20  10
HOBART OK         93  67  97  69 /   0  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  70  95  72 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           93  67  96  67 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  68  94  70 /  20  20  10   0
DURANT OK         89  69  93  70 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/10/10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281747
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT KGAG/KWWR/KPNC...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN TAFS. WIND SHIFT WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...AND MAY BE IN THE
VICINITY OF KOKC/KOUN/KCSM/KHBR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED MORNING PRECIP/WX...

DISCUSSION...
REMOVED ISO THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTN... LINE OF CU THAT DEVELOPED
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS WEAKENED AND SLOWLY DISSIPATED AS IT
MOVED INTO NW/W OK THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS ALSO BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY FOR NWRN OK THIS AM. HELD OF CHANGES TO SLGT CHCS
THIS AFTN ACROSS NRN OK... SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST SCT/ISO DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION. STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL... WEAK SHEAR/INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTN/EVENING. IF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
THEY COULD POSE A SEVERE WIND THREAT... WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES
NEAR 10 TO 11 C/KM.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO TSRA WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 21-12Z. DID NOT MENTION IN
TAFS AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY
AFFECTING A GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.

THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  68  93  71 /   0  20  20  10
HOBART OK         93  67  97  69 /   0  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  70  95  72 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           93  67  96  67 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  68  94  70 /  20  20  10   0
DURANT OK         89  69  93  70 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/10/10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281747
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT KGAG/KWWR/KPNC...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN TAFS. WIND SHIFT WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...AND MAY BE IN THE
VICINITY OF KOKC/KOUN/KCSM/KHBR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED MORNING PRECIP/WX...

DISCUSSION...
REMOVED ISO THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTN... LINE OF CU THAT DEVELOPED
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS WEAKENED AND SLOWLY DISSIPATED AS IT
MOVED INTO NW/W OK THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS ALSO BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY FOR NWRN OK THIS AM. HELD OF CHANGES TO SLGT CHCS
THIS AFTN ACROSS NRN OK... SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST SCT/ISO DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION. STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL... WEAK SHEAR/INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTN/EVENING. IF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
THEY COULD POSE A SEVERE WIND THREAT... WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES
NEAR 10 TO 11 C/KM.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO TSRA WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 21-12Z. DID NOT MENTION IN
TAFS AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY
AFFECTING A GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.

THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  68  93  71 /   0  20  20  10
HOBART OK         93  67  97  69 /   0  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  70  95  72 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           93  67  96  67 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  68  94  70 /  20  20  10   0
DURANT OK         89  69  93  70 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/10/10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281747
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT KGAG/KWWR/KPNC...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN TAFS. WIND SHIFT WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...AND MAY BE IN THE
VICINITY OF KOKC/KOUN/KCSM/KHBR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED MORNING PRECIP/WX...

DISCUSSION...
REMOVED ISO THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTN... LINE OF CU THAT DEVELOPED
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS WEAKENED AND SLOWLY DISSIPATED AS IT
MOVED INTO NW/W OK THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS ALSO BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY FOR NWRN OK THIS AM. HELD OF CHANGES TO SLGT CHCS
THIS AFTN ACROSS NRN OK... SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST SCT/ISO DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION. STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL... WEAK SHEAR/INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTN/EVENING. IF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
THEY COULD POSE A SEVERE WIND THREAT... WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES
NEAR 10 TO 11 C/KM.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO TSRA WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 21-12Z. DID NOT MENTION IN
TAFS AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY
AFFECTING A GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.

THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  68  93  71 /   0  20  20  10
HOBART OK         93  67  97  69 /   0  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  70  95  72 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           93  67  96  67 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  68  94  70 /  20  20  10   0
DURANT OK         89  69  93  70 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/10/10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281747
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT KGAG/KWWR/KPNC...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN TAFS. WIND SHIFT WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...AND MAY BE IN THE
VICINITY OF KOKC/KOUN/KCSM/KHBR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED MORNING PRECIP/WX...

DISCUSSION...
REMOVED ISO THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTN... LINE OF CU THAT DEVELOPED
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS WEAKENED AND SLOWLY DISSIPATED AS IT
MOVED INTO NW/W OK THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS ALSO BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY FOR NWRN OK THIS AM. HELD OF CHANGES TO SLGT CHCS
THIS AFTN ACROSS NRN OK... SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST SCT/ISO DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION. STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL... WEAK SHEAR/INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTN/EVENING. IF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
THEY COULD POSE A SEVERE WIND THREAT... WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES
NEAR 10 TO 11 C/KM.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO TSRA WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 21-12Z. DID NOT MENTION IN
TAFS AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY
AFFECTING A GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.

THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  68  93  71 /   0  20  20  10
HOBART OK         93  67  97  69 /   0  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  70  95  72 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           93  67  96  67 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  68  94  70 /  20  20  10   0
DURANT OK         89  69  93  70 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/10/10



000
FXUS64 KTSA 281652
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1152 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH TOMORROW MORNING
BEHIND A WEAK FRONT FOR THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TERMINALS TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE NOT SUFFICIENT TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKING A SLOW SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
TODAY...LEADING TO ANOTHER NICE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS AN UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK FRONT
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE HIGH. ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING. GOING FORECAST HAS THINGS IN HAND SO NO
UPDATE PLANNED FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT MAY
AFFECT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG THIS EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ON MONDAY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. STRONG SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG BOUNDARY WITH A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS64 KTSA 281652
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1152 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH TOMORROW MORNING
BEHIND A WEAK FRONT FOR THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TERMINALS TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE NOT SUFFICIENT TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKING A SLOW SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
TODAY...LEADING TO ANOTHER NICE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS AN UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK FRONT
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE HIGH. ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING. GOING FORECAST HAS THINGS IN HAND SO NO
UPDATE PLANNED FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT MAY
AFFECT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG THIS EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ON MONDAY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. STRONG SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG BOUNDARY WITH A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS64 KTSA 281652
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1152 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH TOMORROW MORNING
BEHIND A WEAK FRONT FOR THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TERMINALS TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE NOT SUFFICIENT TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKING A SLOW SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
TODAY...LEADING TO ANOTHER NICE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS AN UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK FRONT
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE HIGH. ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING. GOING FORECAST HAS THINGS IN HAND SO NO
UPDATE PLANNED FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT MAY
AFFECT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG THIS EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ON MONDAY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. STRONG SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG BOUNDARY WITH A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS64 KTSA 281652
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1152 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH TOMORROW MORNING
BEHIND A WEAK FRONT FOR THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TERMINALS TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE NOT SUFFICIENT TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKING A SLOW SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
TODAY...LEADING TO ANOTHER NICE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS AN UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK FRONT
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE HIGH. ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING. GOING FORECAST HAS THINGS IN HAND SO NO
UPDATE PLANNED FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT MAY
AFFECT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG THIS EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ON MONDAY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. STRONG SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG BOUNDARY WITH A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS64 KOUN 281522
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1022 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED MORNING PRECIP/WX...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REMOVED ISO THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTN... LINE OF CU THAT DEVELOPED
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS WEAKENED AND SLOWLY DISSIPATED AS IT
MOVED INTO NW/W OK THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS ALSO BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY FOR NWRN OK THIS AM. HELD OF CHANGES TO SLGT CHCS
THIS AFTN ACROSS NRN OK... SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST SCT/ISO DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION. STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL... WEAK SHEAR/INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTN/EVENING. IF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
THEY COULD POSE A SEVERE WIND THREAT... WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES
NEAR 10 TO 11 C/KM.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO TSRA WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 21-12Z. DID NOT MENTION IN
TAFS AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY
AFFECTING A GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.

THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  68  93  71 /   0  20  20  10
HOBART OK         93  67  97  69 /   0  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  70  95  72 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           93  67  96  67 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  68  94  70 /  20  20  10   0
DURANT OK         89  69  93  70 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281522
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1022 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED MORNING PRECIP/WX...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REMOVED ISO THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTN... LINE OF CU THAT DEVELOPED
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS WEAKENED AND SLOWLY DISSIPATED AS IT
MOVED INTO NW/W OK THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS ALSO BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY FOR NWRN OK THIS AM. HELD OF CHANGES TO SLGT CHCS
THIS AFTN ACROSS NRN OK... SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST SCT/ISO DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION. STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL... WEAK SHEAR/INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTN/EVENING. IF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
THEY COULD POSE A SEVERE WIND THREAT... WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES
NEAR 10 TO 11 C/KM.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO TSRA WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 21-12Z. DID NOT MENTION IN
TAFS AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY
AFFECTING A GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.

THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  68  93  71 /   0  20  20  10
HOBART OK         93  67  97  69 /   0  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  70  95  72 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           93  67  96  67 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  68  94  70 /  20  20  10   0
DURANT OK         89  69  93  70 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 281447
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
947 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKING A SLOW SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
TODAY...LEADING TO ANOTHER NICE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS AN UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK FRONT
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE HIGH. ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING. GOING FORECAST HAS THINGS IN HAND SO NO
UPDATE PLANNED FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT MAY
AFFECT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG THIS EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ON MONDAY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. STRONG SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG BOUNDARY WITH A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07




000
FXUS64 KOUN 281132
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO TSRA WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 21-12Z. DID NOT MENTION IN
TAFS AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY
AFFECTING A GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.

THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  68  93  71 /   0  20  20  10
HOBART OK         95  67  97  69 /   0  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  93  70  95  72 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           95  67  96  67 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  68  94  70 /  20  20  10   0
DURANT OK         91  69  93  70 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281132
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO TSRA WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 21-12Z. DID NOT MENTION IN
TAFS AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY
AFFECTING A GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.

THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  68  93  71 /   0  20  20  10
HOBART OK         95  67  97  69 /   0  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  93  70  95  72 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           95  67  96  67 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  68  94  70 /  20  20  10   0
DURANT OK         91  69  93  70 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281132
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO TSRA WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 21-12Z. DID NOT MENTION IN
TAFS AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY
AFFECTING A GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.

THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  68  93  71 /   0  20  20  10
HOBART OK         95  67  97  69 /   0  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  93  70  95  72 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           95  67  96  67 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  68  94  70 /  20  20  10   0
DURANT OK         91  69  93  70 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281132
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO TSRA WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 21-12Z. DID NOT MENTION IN
TAFS AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY
AFFECTING A GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.

THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  68  93  71 /   0  20  20  10
HOBART OK         95  67  97  69 /   0  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  93  70  95  72 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           95  67  96  67 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  68  94  70 /  20  20  10   0
DURANT OK         91  69  93  70 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281132
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO TSRA WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 21-12Z. DID NOT MENTION IN
TAFS AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY
AFFECTING A GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.

THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  68  93  71 /   0  20  20  10
HOBART OK         95  67  97  69 /   0  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  93  70  95  72 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           95  67  96  67 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  68  94  70 /  20  20  10   0
DURANT OK         91  69  93  70 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281132
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO TSRA WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 21-12Z. DID NOT MENTION IN
TAFS AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY
AFFECTING A GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.

THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  68  93  71 /   0  20  20  10
HOBART OK         95  67  97  69 /   0  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  93  70  95  72 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           95  67  96  67 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  68  94  70 /  20  20  10   0
DURANT OK         91  69  93  70 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281132
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO TSRA WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 21-12Z. DID NOT MENTION IN
TAFS AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY
AFFECTING A GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.

THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  68  93  71 /   0  20  20  10
HOBART OK         95  67  97  69 /   0  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  93  70  95  72 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           95  67  96  67 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  68  94  70 /  20  20  10   0
DURANT OK         91  69  93  70 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281132
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO TSRA WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 21-12Z. DID NOT MENTION IN
TAFS AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY
AFFECTING A GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.

THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  68  93  71 /   0  20  20  10
HOBART OK         95  67  97  69 /   0  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  93  70  95  72 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           95  67  96  67 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  68  94  70 /  20  20  10   0
DURANT OK         91  69  93  70 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 281103
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
603 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT MAY
AFFECT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG THIS EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ON MONDAY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. STRONG SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG BOUNDARY WITH A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06



000
FXUS64 KTSA 281103
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
603 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT MAY
AFFECT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG THIS EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ON MONDAY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. STRONG SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG BOUNDARY WITH A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06



000
FXUS64 KTSA 281103
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
603 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT MAY
AFFECT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG THIS EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ON MONDAY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. STRONG SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG BOUNDARY WITH A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06



000
FXUS64 KTSA 281103
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
603 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT MAY
AFFECT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG THIS EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ON MONDAY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. STRONG SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG BOUNDARY WITH A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06



000
FXUS64 KTSA 281103
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
603 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT MAY
AFFECT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG THIS EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ON MONDAY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. STRONG SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG BOUNDARY WITH A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06



000
FXUS64 KOUN 280912
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.

THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  68  93  71 /   0  20  20  10
HOBART OK         95  67  97  69 /   0  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  93  70  95  72 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           95  67  96  67 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  68  94  70 /  20  20  10   0
DURANT OK         91  69  93  70 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280912
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.

THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  68  93  71 /   0  20  20  10
HOBART OK         95  67  97  69 /   0  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  93  70  95  72 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           95  67  96  67 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  68  94  70 /  20  20  10   0
DURANT OK         91  69  93  70 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280912
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.

THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  68  93  71 /   0  20  20  10
HOBART OK         95  67  97  69 /   0  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  93  70  95  72 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           95  67  96  67 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  68  94  70 /  20  20  10   0
DURANT OK         91  69  93  70 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280912
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.

THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  68  93  71 /   0  20  20  10
HOBART OK         95  67  97  69 /   0  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  93  70  95  72 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           95  67  96  67 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  68  94  70 /  20  20  10   0
DURANT OK         91  69  93  70 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 280802
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
302 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG THIS EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ON MONDAY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. STRONG SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG BOUNDARY WITH A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  91  71 /   0  20  10  10
FSM   89  67  92  72 /   0  10  20  20
MLC   89  68  92  71 /   0  10  30  20
BVO   89  65  91  66 /  10  20  10   0
FYV   85  63  87  66 /   0  20  10  10
BYV   84  65  87  68 /   0  20  10  10
MKO   87  66  90  70 /   0  20  20  10
MIO   87  65  90  67 /  10  20  10   0
F10   87  67  91  71 /   0  10  30  20
HHW   89  68  90  72 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 280802
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
302 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG THIS EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ON MONDAY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. STRONG SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG BOUNDARY WITH A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  91  71 /   0  20  10  10
FSM   89  67  92  72 /   0  10  20  20
MLC   89  68  92  71 /   0  10  30  20
BVO   89  65  91  66 /  10  20  10   0
FYV   85  63  87  66 /   0  20  10  10
BYV   84  65  87  68 /   0  20  10  10
MKO   87  66  90  70 /   0  20  20  10
MIO   87  65  90  67 /  10  20  10   0
F10   87  67  91  71 /   0  10  30  20
HHW   89  68  90  72 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 280802
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
302 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG THIS EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ON MONDAY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. STRONG SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG BOUNDARY WITH A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  91  71 /   0  20  10  10
FSM   89  67  92  72 /   0  10  20  20
MLC   89  68  92  71 /   0  10  30  20
BVO   89  65  91  66 /  10  20  10   0
FYV   85  63  87  66 /   0  20  10  10
BYV   84  65  87  68 /   0  20  10  10
MKO   87  66  90  70 /   0  20  20  10
MIO   87  65  90  67 /  10  20  10   0
F10   87  67  91  71 /   0  10  30  20
HHW   89  68  90  72 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 280802
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
302 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG THIS EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ON MONDAY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. STRONG SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG BOUNDARY WITH A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  91  71 /   0  20  10  10
FSM   89  67  92  72 /   0  10  20  20
MLC   89  68  92  71 /   0  10  30  20
BVO   89  65  91  66 /  10  20  10   0
FYV   85  63  87  66 /   0  20  10  10
BYV   84  65  87  68 /   0  20  10  10
MKO   87  66  90  70 /   0  20  20  10
MIO   87  65  90  67 /  10  20  10   0
F10   87  67  91  71 /   0  10  30  20
HHW   89  68  90  72 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 280355
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1055 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE 00Z FORECAST. AS SUGGESTED IN MY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GUIDANCE IS NOT AS PESSIMISTIC REGARDING FOG
THICKNESS TONIGHT OVER IN NW AR...AND I HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST
THAT DIRECTION. VFR WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL CHANGE. QUIET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
STUCK PRIMARILY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE 00Z TAFS. FOG
WAS AN ISSUE LAST NIGHT OVER IN PARTS OF NW AR...ESPECIALLY AT
KFYV...AND THE GUIDANCE HINTS AT THAT AGAIN TONIGHT. THE LATEST
RAP13 MODEL RH PLOTS DO NOT SHOW AS FAVORABLE A HYDROLAPSE
TONIGHT...SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS TO HOW THICK THE FOG WILL
GET. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SURFACE RIDGING
IN PLACE.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL EARLY SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
GRADUALLY LOSING DEFINITION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION HOWEVER WEAK FORCING ALOFT
AND LIMITED CONVERGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PRECIP COVERAGE LOW.

THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS YIELDING HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES.

A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS LIKELY TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN RIDGE IS FLATTENED
SOMEWHAT AND SEVERAL WAVES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DATA REMAIN SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE SFC FRONTAL SURGE WILL
BE...HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION
AND THE PERSISTENT SFC FOCUS WARRANTS HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES FOR
SEVERAL DAYS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  91  70  92 /   0   0  20  10
FSM   65  89  69  91 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   63  88  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   61  90  67  92 /   0  10  20  10
FYV   58  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  10
BYV   59  85  66  88 /   0   0  20  10
MKO   64  87  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   61  88  67  90 /   0  10  20  10
F10   64  88  68  90 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   65  88  68  90 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30



000
FXUS64 KTSA 280355
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1055 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE 00Z FORECAST. AS SUGGESTED IN MY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GUIDANCE IS NOT AS PESSIMISTIC REGARDING FOG
THICKNESS TONIGHT OVER IN NW AR...AND I HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST
THAT DIRECTION. VFR WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL CHANGE. QUIET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
STUCK PRIMARILY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE 00Z TAFS. FOG
WAS AN ISSUE LAST NIGHT OVER IN PARTS OF NW AR...ESPECIALLY AT
KFYV...AND THE GUIDANCE HINTS AT THAT AGAIN TONIGHT. THE LATEST
RAP13 MODEL RH PLOTS DO NOT SHOW AS FAVORABLE A HYDROLAPSE
TONIGHT...SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS TO HOW THICK THE FOG WILL
GET. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SURFACE RIDGING
IN PLACE.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL EARLY SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
GRADUALLY LOSING DEFINITION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION HOWEVER WEAK FORCING ALOFT
AND LIMITED CONVERGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PRECIP COVERAGE LOW.

THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS YIELDING HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES.

A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS LIKELY TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN RIDGE IS FLATTENED
SOMEWHAT AND SEVERAL WAVES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DATA REMAIN SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE SFC FRONTAL SURGE WILL
BE...HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION
AND THE PERSISTENT SFC FOCUS WARRANTS HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES FOR
SEVERAL DAYS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  91  70  92 /   0   0  20  10
FSM   65  89  69  91 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   63  88  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   61  90  67  92 /   0  10  20  10
FYV   58  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  10
BYV   59  85  66  88 /   0   0  20  10
MKO   64  87  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   61  88  67  90 /   0  10  20  10
F10   64  88  68  90 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   65  88  68  90 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280328
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1028 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHERN OK SUNDAY EVENING BUT CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...PLUS A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE...WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MILD TEMPERATURES. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED
THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTH TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR HAS MADE FOR A COMFORTABLE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW AVERAGE...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID-
60S.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW EVENING NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST ASCENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DOWNDRAFT
CAPE OVER 1300 J/KG...SO GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA MONDAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY THIS WEEK AS AN
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THE GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPS 26-27C NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER
ON TUESDAY AND NEAR 30C ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ON LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER
WAVE SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A
DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY PROVIDE
CONTINUED ASCENT. AS A RESULT...WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  90  68  93 /   0   0  10  20
HOBART OK         64  92  67  96 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  91  68  95 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           64  93  67  94 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     67  93  69  94 /   0  10  20   0
DURANT OK         65  90  67  93 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280328
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1028 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHERN OK SUNDAY EVENING BUT CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...PLUS A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE...WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MILD TEMPERATURES. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED
THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTH TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR HAS MADE FOR A COMFORTABLE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW AVERAGE...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID-
60S.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW EVENING NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST ASCENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DOWNDRAFT
CAPE OVER 1300 J/KG...SO GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA MONDAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY THIS WEEK AS AN
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THE GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPS 26-27C NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER
ON TUESDAY AND NEAR 30C ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ON LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER
WAVE SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A
DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY PROVIDE
CONTINUED ASCENT. AS A RESULT...WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  90  68  93 /   0   0  10  20
HOBART OK         64  92  67  96 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  91  68  95 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           64  93  67  94 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     67  93  69  94 /   0  10  20   0
DURANT OK         65  90  67  93 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25/25



000
FXUS64 KTSA 280245
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL CHANGE. QUIET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
STUCK PRIMARILY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE 00Z TAFS. FOG
WAS AN ISSUE LAST NIGHT OVER IN PARTS OF NW AR...ESPECIALLY AT
KFYV...AND THE GUIDANCE HINTS AT THAT AGAIN TONIGHT. THE LATEST
RAP13 MODEL RH PLOTS DO NOT SHOW AS FAVORABLE A HYDROLAPSE
TONIGHT...SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS TO HOW THICK THE FOG WILL
GET. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SURFACE RIDGING
IN PLACE.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL EARLY SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
GRADUALLY LOSING DEFINITION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION HOWEVER WEAK FORCING ALOFT
AND LIMITED CONVERGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PRECIP COVERAGE LOW.

THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS YIELDING HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES.

A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS LIKELY TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN RIDGE IS FLATTENED
SOMEWHAT AND SEVERAL WAVES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DATA REMAIN SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE SFC FRONTAL SURGE WILL
BE...HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION
AND THE PERSISTENT SFC FOCUS WARRANTS HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES FOR
SEVERAL DAYS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  91  70  92 /   0   0  20  10
FSM   65  89  69  91 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   63  88  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   61  90  67  92 /   0  10  20  10
FYV   58  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  10
BYV   59  85  66  88 /   0   0  20  10
MKO   64  87  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   61  88  67  90 /   0  10  20  10
F10   64  88  68  90 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   65  88  68  90 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....30



000
FXUS64 KTSA 280245
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL CHANGE. QUIET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
STUCK PRIMARILY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE 00Z TAFS. FOG
WAS AN ISSUE LAST NIGHT OVER IN PARTS OF NW AR...ESPECIALLY AT
KFYV...AND THE GUIDANCE HINTS AT THAT AGAIN TONIGHT. THE LATEST
RAP13 MODEL RH PLOTS DO NOT SHOW AS FAVORABLE A HYDROLAPSE
TONIGHT...SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS TO HOW THICK THE FOG WILL
GET. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SURFACE RIDGING
IN PLACE.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL EARLY SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
GRADUALLY LOSING DEFINITION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION HOWEVER WEAK FORCING ALOFT
AND LIMITED CONVERGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PRECIP COVERAGE LOW.

THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS YIELDING HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES.

A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS LIKELY TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN RIDGE IS FLATTENED
SOMEWHAT AND SEVERAL WAVES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DATA REMAIN SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE SFC FRONTAL SURGE WILL
BE...HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION
AND THE PERSISTENT SFC FOCUS WARRANTS HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES FOR
SEVERAL DAYS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  91  70  92 /   0   0  20  10
FSM   65  89  69  91 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   63  88  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   61  90  67  92 /   0  10  20  10
FYV   58  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  10
BYV   59  85  66  88 /   0   0  20  10
MKO   64  87  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   61  88  67  90 /   0  10  20  10
F10   64  88  68  90 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   65  88  68  90 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280230
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
930 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...PLUS A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE...WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MILD TEMPERATURES. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED
THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTH TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR HAS MADE FOR A COMFORTABLE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW AVERAGE...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID-
60S.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW EVENING NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST ASCENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DOWNDRAFT
CAPE OVER 1300 J/KG...SO GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA MONDAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY THIS WEEK AS AN
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THE GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPS 26-27C NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER
ON TUESDAY AND NEAR 30C ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ON LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER
WAVE SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A
DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY PROVIDE
CONTINUED ASCENT. AS A RESULT...WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  90  68  93 /   0   0  10  20
HOBART OK         64  92  67  96 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  91  68  95 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           64  93  67  94 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     67  93  69  94 /   0  10  20   0
DURANT OK         65  90  67  93 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 280230
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
930 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...PLUS A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE...WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MILD TEMPERATURES. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED
THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTH TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR HAS MADE FOR A COMFORTABLE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW AVERAGE...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID-
60S.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW EVENING NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST ASCENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DOWNDRAFT
CAPE OVER 1300 J/KG...SO GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA MONDAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY THIS WEEK AS AN
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THE GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPS 26-27C NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER
ON TUESDAY AND NEAR 30C ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ON LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER
WAVE SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A
DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY PROVIDE
CONTINUED ASCENT. AS A RESULT...WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  90  68  93 /   0   0  10  20
HOBART OK         64  92  67  96 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  91  68  95 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           64  93  67  94 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     67  93  69  94 /   0  10  20   0
DURANT OK         65  90  67  93 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280230
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
930 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...PLUS A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE...WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MILD TEMPERATURES. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED
THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTH TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR HAS MADE FOR A COMFORTABLE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW AVERAGE...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID-
60S.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW EVENING NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST ASCENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DOWNDRAFT
CAPE OVER 1300 J/KG...SO GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA MONDAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY THIS WEEK AS AN
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THE GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPS 26-27C NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER
ON TUESDAY AND NEAR 30C ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ON LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER
WAVE SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A
DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY PROVIDE
CONTINUED ASCENT. AS A RESULT...WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  90  68  93 /   0   0  10  20
HOBART OK         64  92  67  96 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  91  68  95 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           64  93  67  94 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     67  93  69  94 /   0  10  20   0
DURANT OK         65  90  67  93 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 280230
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
930 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...PLUS A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE...WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MILD TEMPERATURES. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED
THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTH TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR HAS MADE FOR A COMFORTABLE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW AVERAGE...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID-
60S.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW EVENING NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST ASCENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DOWNDRAFT
CAPE OVER 1300 J/KG...SO GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA MONDAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY THIS WEEK AS AN
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THE GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPS 26-27C NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER
ON TUESDAY AND NEAR 30C ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ON LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER
WAVE SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A
DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY PROVIDE
CONTINUED ASCENT. AS A RESULT...WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  90  68  93 /   0   0  10  20
HOBART OK         64  92  67  96 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  91  68  95 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           64  93  67  94 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     67  93  69  94 /   0  10  20   0
DURANT OK         65  90  67  93 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 272328
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR HAS MADE FOR A COMFORTABLE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW AVERAGE...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID-
60S.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW EVENING NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST ASCENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DOWNDRAFT
CAPE OVER 1300 J/KG...SO GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA MONDAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY THIS WEEK AS AN
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THE GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPS 26-27C NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER
ON TUESDAY AND NEAR 30C ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ON LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER
WAVE SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A
DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY PROVIDE
CONTINUED ASCENT. AS A RESULT...WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  90  68  93 /   0   0  10  20
HOBART OK         64  92  67  96 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  91  68  95 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           64  93  67  94 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     67  93  69  94 /   0  10  20   0
DURANT OK         65  90  67  93 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 272328
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR HAS MADE FOR A COMFORTABLE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW AVERAGE...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID-
60S.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW EVENING NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST ASCENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DOWNDRAFT
CAPE OVER 1300 J/KG...SO GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA MONDAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY THIS WEEK AS AN
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THE GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPS 26-27C NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER
ON TUESDAY AND NEAR 30C ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ON LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER
WAVE SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A
DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY PROVIDE
CONTINUED ASCENT. AS A RESULT...WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  90  68  93 /   0   0  10  20
HOBART OK         64  92  67  96 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  91  68  95 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           64  93  67  94 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     67  93  69  94 /   0  10  20   0
DURANT OK         65  90  67  93 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 272328
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR HAS MADE FOR A COMFORTABLE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW AVERAGE...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID-
60S.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW EVENING NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST ASCENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DOWNDRAFT
CAPE OVER 1300 J/KG...SO GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA MONDAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY THIS WEEK AS AN
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THE GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPS 26-27C NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER
ON TUESDAY AND NEAR 30C ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ON LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER
WAVE SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A
DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY PROVIDE
CONTINUED ASCENT. AS A RESULT...WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  90  68  93 /   0   0  10  20
HOBART OK         64  92  67  96 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  91  68  95 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           64  93  67  94 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     67  93  69  94 /   0  10  20   0
DURANT OK         65  90  67  93 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 272328
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR HAS MADE FOR A COMFORTABLE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW AVERAGE...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID-
60S.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW EVENING NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST ASCENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DOWNDRAFT
CAPE OVER 1300 J/KG...SO GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA MONDAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY THIS WEEK AS AN
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THE GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPS 26-27C NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER
ON TUESDAY AND NEAR 30C ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ON LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER
WAVE SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A
DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY PROVIDE
CONTINUED ASCENT. AS A RESULT...WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  90  68  93 /   0   0  10  20
HOBART OK         64  92  67  96 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  91  68  95 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           64  93  67  94 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     67  93  69  94 /   0  10  20   0
DURANT OK         65  90  67  93 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25/25




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