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000
FXUS64 KTSA 030448
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1148 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Skies continue to slowly clear across northwest AR this evening.
Latest hi-res data continues to support fog development across
mainly northwest AR, with at least periodic IFR conditions
between about 09-14z. VFR will prevail after that time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 839 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...

There are more breaks in the cloud cover per recent satellite
trends. WV imagery shows a shortwave trough axis from central MO
to central OK moving east. Subsidence on the back side of this
system may be helping to break up the cloud cover. There may still
be some mid and high cloud from another potent PV max diving south
into Nebraska attm...but a sustained overcast sky is not expected
from this. Thus...am reluctant to adjust low temps very much at
all tonight given recent trends...since it will only take a few
hours for temps to drop when the clouds break.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Low-end VFR ceilings in the 3500-4500 foot range will continue to
clear out this evening. Areas of fog will likely develop across
mainly northwest AR per latest hi-res model soundings, with at
least periodic IFR conditions between about 09-14z. VFR will
prevail after that time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably cool conditions this afternoon behind a strong cold
front which has now pushed well south into the northern Gulf of
Mexico. Extensive cloud cover has kept high temperatures in
check, currently running 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this
time year. Low clouds will slowly clear from west to east overnight.
Could still see a few lingering low clouds across far northwest
Arkansas Tuesday morning.

Surface high pressure settles over the region during the day
Tuesday with light winds and mostly sunny skies. Relatively quiet
weather pattern for the next several days, especially for early
May. Another weak boundary/wind shift will move through on
Wednesday however temperatures are still expected to warm into the
upper 70s over much of the area with dry/down-slope flow. Warming
trend continues through the latter part of the work week as
strong upper ridge builds over the central/southern plains.

Upper ridge begins to break down over the weekend as large upper
low shifts northeast into the intermountain west. Shower/thunderstorm
chances return Saturday night into Sunday as initial short wave
ejects ahead of main upper low.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14



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000
FXUS64 KOUN 030435
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1135 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
TAFS 0306/0406Z...
THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

AVIATION...
0300/0400 TAFS...

VFR CEILINGS (~5K FEET) AT PNC/OKC/OUN WILL SCATTERED/CLEAR EARLY
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A COOL...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
TURN BACK TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW...LEADING TO A SLOW WARMING
TREND. AGAIN...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TONIGHT
IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WE DO NOT BELIEVE A FROST ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED.

DESPITE THE DRY AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY
UNLIKELY.

AS A LARGE UPPER/MID-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES NEXT
WEEKEND...RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN. IT
IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF LARGE SLOW SYSTEMS LIKE
THAT...BUT ITS EFFECTS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO BE FELT IN
OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH IT IS ALSO
DIFFICULT TO TELL THAT FAR OUT ABOUT THE VARIOUS SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS...THINGS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL NOT COME TOGETHER
FOR ANYTHING MAJOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW
SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  71  49  77 /   0  10   0   0
HOBART OK         43  71  47  79 /   0  30  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  73  50  80 /   0  10  10   0
GAGE OK           41  71  45  79 /   0  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  72  48  77 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         47  72  52  79 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 030139
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
839 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

There are more breaks in the cloud cover per recent satellite
trends. WV imagery shows a shortwave trough axis from central MO
to central OK moving east. Subsidence on the back side of this
system may be helping to break up the cloud cover. There may still
be some mid and high cloud from another potent PV max diving south
into Nebraska attm...but a sustained overcast sky is not expected
from this. Thus...am reluctant to adjust low temps very much at
all tonight given recent trends...since it will only take a few
hours for temps to drop when the clouds break.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Low-end VFR ceilings in the 3500-4500 foot range will continue to
clear out this evening. Areas of fog will likely develop across
mainly northwest AR per latest hi-res model soundings, with at
least periodic IFR conditions between about 09-14z. VFR will
prevail after that time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably cool conditions this afternoon behind a strong cold
front which has now pushed well south into the northern Gulf of
Mexico. Extensive cloud cover has kept high temperatures in
check, currently running 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this
time year. Low clouds will slowly clear from west to east overnight.
Could still see a few lingering low clouds across far northwest
Arkansas Tuesday morning.

Surface high pressure settles over the region during the day
Tuesday with light winds and mostly sunny skies. Relatively quiet
weather pattern for the next several days, especially for early
May. Another weak boundary/wind shift will move through on
Wednesday however temperatures are still expected to warm into the
upper 70s over much of the area with dry/down-slope flow. Warming
trend continues through the latter part of the work week as
strong upper ridge builds over the central/southern plains.

Upper ridge begins to break down over the weekend as large upper
low shifts northeast into the intermountain west. Shower/thunderstorm
chances return Saturday night into Sunday as initial short wave
ejects ahead of main upper low.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  70  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   46  72  51  79 /  10  10  10   0
MLC   43  71  50  77 /   0   0  10   0
BVO   40  72  45  77 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   40  67  44  73 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   43  66  49  72 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   42  70  49  77 /   0   0  10   0
MIO   42  70  47  76 /   0  10   0   0
F10   43  72  51  76 /   0   0  10   0
HHW   46  71  50  78 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 030139
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
839 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

There are more breaks in the cloud cover per recent satellite
trends. WV imagery shows a shortwave trough axis from central MO
to central OK moving east. Subsidence on the back side of this
system may be helping to break up the cloud cover. There may still
be some mid and high cloud from another potent PV max diving south
into Nebraska attm...but a sustained overcast sky is not expected
from this. Thus...am reluctant to adjust low temps very much at
all tonight given recent trends...since it will only take a few
hours for temps to drop when the clouds break.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Low-end VFR ceilings in the 3500-4500 foot range will continue to
clear out this evening. Areas of fog will likely develop across
mainly northwest AR per latest hi-res model soundings, with at
least periodic IFR conditions between about 09-14z. VFR will
prevail after that time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably cool conditions this afternoon behind a strong cold
front which has now pushed well south into the northern Gulf of
Mexico. Extensive cloud cover has kept high temperatures in
check, currently running 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this
time year. Low clouds will slowly clear from west to east overnight.
Could still see a few lingering low clouds across far northwest
Arkansas Tuesday morning.

Surface high pressure settles over the region during the day
Tuesday with light winds and mostly sunny skies. Relatively quiet
weather pattern for the next several days, especially for early
May. Another weak boundary/wind shift will move through on
Wednesday however temperatures are still expected to warm into the
upper 70s over much of the area with dry/down-slope flow. Warming
trend continues through the latter part of the work week as
strong upper ridge builds over the central/southern plains.

Upper ridge begins to break down over the weekend as large upper
low shifts northeast into the intermountain west. Shower/thunderstorm
chances return Saturday night into Sunday as initial short wave
ejects ahead of main upper low.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  70  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   46  72  51  79 /  10  10  10   0
MLC   43  71  50  77 /   0   0  10   0
BVO   40  72  45  77 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   40  67  44  73 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   43  66  49  72 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   42  70  49  77 /   0   0  10   0
MIO   42  70  47  76 /   0  10   0   0
F10   43  72  51  76 /   0   0  10   0
HHW   46  71  50  78 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 022347
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
0300/0400 TAFS...

VFR CEILINGS (~5K FEET) AT PNC/OKC/OUN WILL SCATTERED/CLEAR EARLY
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A COOL...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
TURN BACK TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW...LEADING TO A SLOW WARMING
TREND. AGAIN...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TONIGHT
IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WE DO NOT BELIEVE A FROST ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED.

DESPITE THE DRY AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY
UNLIKELY.

AS A LARGE UPPER/MID-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES NEXT
WEEKEND...RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN. IT
IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF LARGE SLOW SYSTEMS LIKE
THAT...BUT ITS EFFECTS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO BE FELT IN
OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH IT IS ALSO
DIFFICULT TO TELL THAT FAR OUT ABOUT THE VARIOUS SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS...THINGS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL NOT COME TOGETHER
FOR ANYTHING MAJOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW
SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  71  49  77 /   0  10   0   0
HOBART OK         43  71  47  79 /   0  30  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  73  50  80 /   0  10  10   0
GAGE OK           41  71  45  79 /   0  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  72  48  77 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         47  72  52  79 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 022347
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
0300/0400 TAFS...

VFR CEILINGS (~5K FEET) AT PNC/OKC/OUN WILL SCATTERED/CLEAR EARLY
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A COOL...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
TURN BACK TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW...LEADING TO A SLOW WARMING
TREND. AGAIN...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TONIGHT
IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WE DO NOT BELIEVE A FROST ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED.

DESPITE THE DRY AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY
UNLIKELY.

AS A LARGE UPPER/MID-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES NEXT
WEEKEND...RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN. IT
IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF LARGE SLOW SYSTEMS LIKE
THAT...BUT ITS EFFECTS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO BE FELT IN
OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH IT IS ALSO
DIFFICULT TO TELL THAT FAR OUT ABOUT THE VARIOUS SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS...THINGS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL NOT COME TOGETHER
FOR ANYTHING MAJOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW
SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  71  49  77 /   0  10   0   0
HOBART OK         43  71  47  79 /   0  30  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  73  50  80 /   0  10  10   0
GAGE OK           41  71  45  79 /   0  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  72  48  77 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         47  72  52  79 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 022319
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
619 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Low-end VFR ceilings in the 3500-4500 foot range will continue to
clear out this evening. Areas of fog will likely develop across
mainly northwest AR per latest hi-res model soundings, with at
least periodic IFR conditions between about 09-14z. VFR will
prevail after that time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably cool conditions this afternoon behind a strong cold
front which has now pushed well south into the northern Gulf of
Mexico. Extensive cloud cover has kept high temperatures in
check, currently running 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this
time year. Low clouds will slowly clear from west to east overnight.
Could still see a few lingering low clouds across far northwest
Arkansas Tuesday morning.

Surface high pressure settles over the region during the day
Tuesday with light winds and mostly sunny skies. Relatively quiet
weather pattern for the next several days, especially for early
May. Another weak boundary/wind shift will move through on
Wednesday however temperatures are still expected to warm into the
upper 70s over much of the area with dry/down-slope flow. Warming
trend continues through the latter part of the work week as
strong upper ridge builds over the central/southern plains.

Upper ridge begins to break down over the weekend as large upper
low shifts northeast into the intermountain west. Shower/thunderstorm
chances return Saturday night into Sunday as initial short wave
ejects ahead of main upper low.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 022035
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A COOL...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
TURN BACK TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW...LEADING TO A SLOW WARMING
TREND. AGAIN...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TONIGHT
IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WE DO NOT BELIEVE A FROST ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED.

DESPITE THE DRY AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY
UNLIKELY.

AS A LARGE UPPER/MID-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES NEXT
WEEKEND...RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN. IT
IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF LARGE SLOW SYSTEMS LIKE
THAT...BUT ITS EFFECTS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO BE FELT IN
OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH IT IS ALSO
DIFFICULT TO TELL THAT FAR OUT ABOUT THE VARIOUS SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS...THINGS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL NOT COME TOGETHER
FOR ANYTHING MAJOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW
SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  71  49  77 /   0  10   0   0
HOBART OK         43  71  47  79 /   0  30  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  73  50  80 /   0  10  10   0
GAGE OK           41  71  45  79 /   0  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  72  48  77 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         47  72  52  79 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 021951
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
251 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably cool conditions this afternoon behind a strong cold
front which has now pushed well south into the northern Gulf of
Mexico. Extensive cloud cover has kept high temperatures in
check, currently running 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this
time year. Low clouds will slowly clear from west to east overnight.
Could still see a few lingering low clouds across far northwest
Arkansas Tuesday morning.

Surface high pressure settles over the region during the day
Tuesday with light winds and mostly sunny skies. Relatively quiet
weather pattern for the next several days, especially for early
May. Another weak boundary/wind shift will move through on
Wednesday however temperatures are still expected to warm into the
upper 70s over much of the area with dry/down-slope flow. Warming
trend continues through the latter part of the work week as
strong upper ridge builds over the central/southern plains.

Upper ridge begins to break down over the weekend as large upper
low shifts northeast into the intermountain west. Shower/thunderstorm
chances return Saturday night into Sunday as initial short wave
ejects ahead of main upper low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  70  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   46  72  51  79 /  10  10  10   0
MLC   43  71  50  77 /   0   0  10   0
BVO   40  72  45  77 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   40  67  44  73 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   43  66  49  72 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   42  70  49  77 /   0   0  10   0
MIO   42  70  47  76 /   0  10   0   0
F10   43  72  51  76 /   0   0  10   0
HHW   46  71  50  78 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 021738
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1238 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Varying ceiling heights between 2500ft and 4500ft with a few lower
MVFR ceilings will continue this afternoon across Eastern Oklahoma
and Northwest Arkansas. Late this afternoon into the overnight
hours...VFR ceilings should continue to lift and try to scatter
out from north to south. If ceilings across parts of Northwest
Arkansas scatter/clear out late tonight...some patchy fog could
possibly develop. For now though will continue with scattered VFR
into Tuesday morning for XNA/ROG/FYV. During the day
Tuesday...scattered mid/high clouds and west to northwesterly
winds are forecast.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A weak positively tilted shortwave positioned over Kansas
continued to push south southeast this morning toward Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Ahead of the shortwave trof
axis...west to southwesterly upper level flow was transporting
scattered rain showers with a few thunderstorms across Central
Texas to far Southeast Oklahoma into Southern/Eastern Arkansas.
Across the rest of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas...mostly to cloudy conditions and north to northwesterly
winds were common.

This afternoon...the shortwave trof axis is expected to continue
to sag southward across the CWA. This should push the remaining
precip south and east of the CWA during the afternoon hours.
Thus...will continue just slight chance pops for far Southeast
Oklahoma through 18z. For the rest of the CWA...low to mid level
ceilings should remain common over the region through the
afternoon hours before trying to scatter out behind the trof axis
this evening and overnight.

Continued cloud cover along with north to northwesterly surface
flow should keep temperatures below the seasonal average again.
High temps this afternoon look to be close to yesterdays highs
with 60s forecast. Morning update will be to add minor tweaks to
hourly temp/dewpoint/wind grids and adjust sky/pop/wx grids based
on the mentioned above. The rest ongoing forecast seems to be
handling well at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  71  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   46  73  51  79 /  10  10  10   0
MLC   43  72  50  77 /   0   0  10   0
BVO   40  73  45  78 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   37  68  44  73 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   41  67  49  72 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   42  71  49  77 /   0   0  10   0
MIO   40  71  47  76 /   0  10   0   0
F10   43  73  51  77 /   0   0  10   0
HHW   46  72  50  78 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 021738
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1238 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Varying ceiling heights between 2500ft and 4500ft with a few lower
MVFR ceilings will continue this afternoon across Eastern Oklahoma
and Northwest Arkansas. Late this afternoon into the overnight
hours...VFR ceilings should continue to lift and try to scatter
out from north to south. If ceilings across parts of Northwest
Arkansas scatter/clear out late tonight...some patchy fog could
possibly develop. For now though will continue with scattered VFR
into Tuesday morning for XNA/ROG/FYV. During the day
Tuesday...scattered mid/high clouds and west to northwesterly
winds are forecast.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A weak positively tilted shortwave positioned over Kansas
continued to push south southeast this morning toward Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Ahead of the shortwave trof
axis...west to southwesterly upper level flow was transporting
scattered rain showers with a few thunderstorms across Central
Texas to far Southeast Oklahoma into Southern/Eastern Arkansas.
Across the rest of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas...mostly to cloudy conditions and north to northwesterly
winds were common.

This afternoon...the shortwave trof axis is expected to continue
to sag southward across the CWA. This should push the remaining
precip south and east of the CWA during the afternoon hours.
Thus...will continue just slight chance pops for far Southeast
Oklahoma through 18z. For the rest of the CWA...low to mid level
ceilings should remain common over the region through the
afternoon hours before trying to scatter out behind the trof axis
this evening and overnight.

Continued cloud cover along with north to northwesterly surface
flow should keep temperatures below the seasonal average again.
High temps this afternoon look to be close to yesterdays highs
with 60s forecast. Morning update will be to add minor tweaks to
hourly temp/dewpoint/wind grids and adjust sky/pop/wx grids based
on the mentioned above. The rest ongoing forecast seems to be
handling well at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  71  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   46  73  51  79 /  10  10  10   0
MLC   43  72  50  77 /   0   0  10   0
BVO   40  73  45  78 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   37  68  44  73 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   41  67  49  72 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   42  71  49  77 /   0   0  10   0
MIO   40  71  47  76 /   0  10   0   0
F10   43  73  51  77 /   0   0  10   0
HHW   46  72  50  78 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KOUN 021730
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A LAYER OF CLOUDS WITH BASES AT APPROXIMATELY 3000 TO 5000 FEET
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. WHILE BR/FG CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THE LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT. SO...IF IT
DOES HAPPEN...IT SHOULD BE VERY SHALLOW AND RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED
AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
DROP OFF TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. S TO SW WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT SPEEDS
WILL BE MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SOME SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR
OVER W OK TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND BEYOND.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED RAIN
CHANCES IN SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE...THINK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-35. THUS...INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. THIS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER DID NOT ALTER
AFTERNOON HIGHS AS THEY SEEMED TO BE REASONABLE.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
02/12Z TAF DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARILY
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH 21-00Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MOST TERMINALS. RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO KEEP BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS GOING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS. MOST IF NOT ALL SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF RED RIVER BUT WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW-MID CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...OVERALL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST FORECAST DATA ON
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. RIGHT NOW ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
TEMPS WARM ENOUGH AND INCREASES SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SUFFICIENTLY
TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL.

UPPER LOW EXITING MANITOBA AND ENTERING NORTHERN PLAINS PROGD TO
SINK SOUTHWARD AND TRAVERSE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTENING WE WILL KEEP POPS GOING ACROSS WESTERN
THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL PROBABLY BE
HARD TO GET ANY THUNDER...BUT WITH FAIRLY COLD CORE OF
SYSTEM...ENOUGH GRAUPEL GROWTH MAY BE REALIZED FOR A FEW
DISCHARGES SO WILL MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.

WARMING TREND EXPECTED LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
ALONG WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. WITH CENTRAL U.S. OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE WEEK...SYNOPTIC PATTERN NOT
CONDUCIVE TO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF WEEKEND SYSTEM
WITH PROLONGED COASTAL REGION LOWER LEVEL RIDGING. GREATER
MOISTURE RETURN PROGD LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
INCREASE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAIN
EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  44  71  49 /   0   0  10   0
HOBART OK         66  42  70  48 /   0   0  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  46  72  50 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           65  40  70  44 /   0   0  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  41  72  48 /   0   0  10   0
DURANT OK         67  47  72  52 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 021536 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1036 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED RAIN
CHANCES IN SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE...THINK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-35. THUS...INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. THIS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER DID NOT ALTER
AFTERNOON HIGHS AS THEY SEEMED TO BE REASONABLE.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
02/12Z TAF DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARILY
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH 21-00Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MOST TERMINALS. RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO KEEP BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS GOING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS. MOST IF NOT ALL SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF RED RIVER BUT WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW-MID CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...OVERALL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST FORECAST DATA ON
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. RIGHT NOW ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
TEMPS WARM ENOUGH AND INCREASES SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SUFFICIENTLY
TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL.

UPPER LOW EXITING MANITOBA AND ENTERING NORTHERN PLAINS PROGD TO
SINK SOUTHWARD AND TRAVERSE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTENING WE WILL KEEP POPS GOING ACROSS WESTERN
THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL PROBABLY BE
HARD TO GET ANY THUNDER...BUT WITH FAIRLY COLD CORE OF
SYSTEM...ENOUGH GRAUPEL GROWTH MAY BE REALIZED FOR A FEW
DISCHARGES SO WILL MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.

WARMING TREND EXPECTED LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
ALONG WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. WITH CENTRAL U.S. OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE WEEK...SYNOPTIC PATTERN NOT
CONDUCIVE TO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF WEEKEND SYSTEM
WITH PROLONGED COASTAL REGION LOWER LEVEL RIDGING. GREATER
MOISTURE RETURN PROGD LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
INCREASE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAIN
EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  44  71  49 /   0   0  10   0
HOBART OK         66  42  70  48 /   0   0  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  46  72  50 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           65  40  70  44 /   0   0  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  41  72  48 /   0   0  10   0
DURANT OK         67  47  72  52 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 021451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
951 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A weak positively tilted shortwave positioned over Kansas
continued to push south southeast this morning toward Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Ahead of the shortwave trof
axis...west to southwesterly upper level flow was transporting
scattered rain showers with a few thunderstorms across Central
Texas to far Southeast Oklahoma into Southern/Eastern Arkansas.
Across the rest of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas...mostly to cloudy conditions and north to northwesterly
winds were common.

This afternoon...the shortwave trof axis is expected to continue
to sag southward across the CWA. This should push the remaining
precip south and east of the CWA during the afternoon hours.
Thus...will continue just slight chance pops for far Southeast
Oklahoma through 18z. For the rest of the CWA...low to mid level
ceilings should remain common over the region through the
afternoon hours before trying to scatter out behind the trof axis
this evening and overnight.

Continued cloud cover along with north to northwesterly surface
flow should keep temperatures below the seasonal average again.
High temps this afternoon look to be close to yesterdays highs
with 60s to near 70 degrees from north to south forecast. Morning
update will be to add minor tweaks to hourly temp/dewpoint/wind
grids and adjust sky/pop/wx grids based on the mentioned above.
The rest ongoing forecast seems to be handling well at this time.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  45  71  50 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   70  48  72  50 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   67  44  72  50 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   64  41  72  46 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   62  38  67  43 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   62  42  66  48 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   66  45  71  48 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   61  41  72  48 /  10   0   0   0
F10   65  46  72  51 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   70  48  72  50 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KOUN 021131
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
631 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
02/12Z TAF DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARILY
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH 21-00Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MOST TERMINALS. RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO KEEP BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS GOING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS. MOST IF NOT ALL SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF RED RIVER BUT WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW-MID CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...OVERALL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST FORECAST DATA ON
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. RIGHT NOW ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
TEMPS WARM ENOUGH AND INCREASES SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SUFFICIENTLY
TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL.

UPPER LOW EXITING MANITOBA AND ENTERING NORTHERN PLAINS PROGD TO
SINK SOUTHWARD AND TRAVERSE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTENING WE WILL KEEP POPS GOING ACROSS WESTERN
THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL PROBABLY BE
HARD TO GET ANY THUNDER...BUT WITH FAIRLY COLD CORE OF
SYSTEM...ENOUGH GRAUPEL GROWTH MAY BE REALIZED FOR A FEW
DISCHARGES SO WILL MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.

WARMING TREND EXPECTED LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
ALONG WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. WITH CENTRAL U.S. OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE WEEK...SYNOPTIC PATTERN NOT
CONDUCIVE TO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF WEEKEND SYSTEM
WITH PROLONGED COASTAL REGION LOWER LEVEL RIDGING. GREATER
MOISTURE RETURN PROGD LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
INCREASE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAIN
EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  44  71  49 /   0   0  10   0
HOBART OK         66  42  70  48 /  10   0  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  46  72  50 /  10   0  10  20
GAGE OK           65  40  70  44 /   0   0  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  41  72  48 /  10   0  10   0
DURANT OK         67  47  72  52 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/11/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 021131
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
631 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
02/12Z TAF DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARILY
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH 21-00Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MOST TERMINALS. RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO KEEP BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS GOING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS. MOST IF NOT ALL SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF RED RIVER BUT WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW-MID CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...OVERALL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST FORECAST DATA ON
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. RIGHT NOW ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
TEMPS WARM ENOUGH AND INCREASES SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SUFFICIENTLY
TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL.

UPPER LOW EXITING MANITOBA AND ENTERING NORTHERN PLAINS PROGD TO
SINK SOUTHWARD AND TRAVERSE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTENING WE WILL KEEP POPS GOING ACROSS WESTERN
THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL PROBABLY BE
HARD TO GET ANY THUNDER...BUT WITH FAIRLY COLD CORE OF
SYSTEM...ENOUGH GRAUPEL GROWTH MAY BE REALIZED FOR A FEW
DISCHARGES SO WILL MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.

WARMING TREND EXPECTED LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
ALONG WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. WITH CENTRAL U.S. OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE WEEK...SYNOPTIC PATTERN NOT
CONDUCIVE TO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF WEEKEND SYSTEM
WITH PROLONGED COASTAL REGION LOWER LEVEL RIDGING. GREATER
MOISTURE RETURN PROGD LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
INCREASE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAIN
EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  44  71  49 /   0   0  10   0
HOBART OK         66  42  70  48 /  10   0  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  46  72  50 /  10   0  10  20
GAGE OK           65  40  70  44 /   0   0  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  41  72  48 /  10   0  10   0
DURANT OK         67  47  72  52 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/11/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 021130
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
630 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Flight conditions are highly variable early this morning, but the
trend will be for MVFR ceilings for the first few hours at the
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas terminals, with some
ceilings as low as IFR at times in northwest Arkansas. Ceilings
should lift to VFR by midday, with VFR conditions then expected to
prevail for the rest of the forecast period. If skies clear
tonight, some patchy fog may develop, but the confidence is too
low to include in the TAF`s at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper system centered to the north pushing its way through the plains
this morning. Will keep pops confined to the east and southeast through the
morning...with slightly higher chances across far southeast Oklahoma for
locations near the Red River. Once this feature clears the area...ridging
out to west will slowly translate to central United States...while
at the same time one low pressure system organizes across the east
and one to the west. This will result in a period of settled weather
across the plains...one that will continue for the week and will
offer afternoon temperatures close to climatological averages. By
the latter half of this upcoming weekend...the upper pattern
starts to become more progressive...and the upper flow will
transition to more southwesterly as the upper low to the west
approaches. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase
at that time...however moisture return may come into
question...which would impact areal coverage of rain/thunder...along
with severe potential.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05




000
FXUS64 KTSA 021130
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
630 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Flight conditions are highly variable early this morning, but the
trend will be for MVFR ceilings for the first few hours at the
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas terminals, with some
ceilings as low as IFR at times in northwest Arkansas. Ceilings
should lift to VFR by midday, with VFR conditions then expected to
prevail for the rest of the forecast period. If skies clear
tonight, some patchy fog may develop, but the confidence is too
low to include in the TAF`s at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper system centered to the north pushing its way through the plains
this morning. Will keep pops confined to the east and southeast through the
morning...with slightly higher chances across far southeast Oklahoma for
locations near the Red River. Once this feature clears the area...ridging
out to west will slowly translate to central United States...while
at the same time one low pressure system organizes across the east
and one to the west. This will result in a period of settled weather
across the plains...one that will continue for the week and will
offer afternoon temperatures close to climatological averages. By
the latter half of this upcoming weekend...the upper pattern
starts to become more progressive...and the upper flow will
transition to more southwesterly as the upper low to the west
approaches. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase
at that time...however moisture return may come into
question...which would impact areal coverage of rain/thunder...along
with severe potential.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05




000
FXUS64 KOUN 020906
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
406 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO KEEP BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS GOING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS. MOST IF NOT ALL SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF RED RIVER BUT WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW-MID CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...OVERALL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST FORECAST DATA ON
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. RIGHT NOW ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
TEMPS WARM ENOUGH AND INCREASES SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SUFFICIENTLY
TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL.

UPPER LOW EXITING MANITOBA AND ENTERING NORTHERN PLAINS PROGD TO
SINK SOUTHWARD AND TRAVERSE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTENING WE WILL KEEP POPS GOING ACROSS WESTERN
THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL PROBABLY BE
HARD TO GET ANY THUNDER...BUT WITH FAIRLY COLD CORE OF
SYSTEM...ENOUGH GRAUPEL GROWTH MAY BE REALIZED FOR A FEW
DISCHARGES SO WILL MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.

WARMING TREND EXPECTED LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
ALONG WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. WITH CENTRAL U.S. OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE WEEK...SYNOPTIC PATTERN NOT
CONDUCIVE TO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF WEEKEND SYSTEM
WITH PROLONGED COASTAL REGION LOWER LEVEL RIDGING. GREATER
MOISTURE RETURN PROGD LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
INCREASE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAIN
EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  44  71  49 /   0   0  10   0
HOBART OK         66  42  70  48 /   0   0  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  46  72  50 /  10   0  10  20
GAGE OK           65  40  70  44 /   0   0  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  41  72  48 /   0   0  10   0
DURANT OK         67  47  72  52 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 020834
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
334 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper system centered to the north pushing its way through the plains
this morning. Will keep pops confined to the east and southeast through the
morning...with slightly higher chances across far southeast Oklahoma for
locations near the Red River. Once this feature clears the area...ridging
out to west will slowly translate to central United States...while
at the same time one low pressure system organizes across the east
and one to the west. This will result in a period of settled weather
across the plains...one that will continue for the week and will
offer afternoon temperatures close to climatological averages. By
the latter half of this upcoming weekend...the upper pattern
starts to become more progressive...and the upper flow will
transition to more southwesterly as the upper low to the west
approaches. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase
at that time...however moisture return may come into
question...which would impact areal coverage of rain/thunder...along
with severe potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  45  71  50 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   68  48  72  50 /  20   0   0   0
MLC   67  44  72  50 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   64  41  72  46 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   62  38  67  43 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   62  42  66  48 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   66  45  71  48 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   61  41  72  48 /  20   0   0   0
F10   65  46  72  51 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   70  48  72  50 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 020444
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1144 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A few scattered showers will continue overnight but will likely
not be heavy enough to reduce visibilities in most locations
MLC area could receive a brief period of rain and possibly
a thunderstorm in the 06-07Z time range. Brief MVFR conditions
expected Monday morning due to low clouds before ceiling heights
rise again by early afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Enhanced area of light rain in a narrow band continues to spread
into parts of eastern OK this evening, likely in the vicinity of
850mb frontal zone that stretches just south of I-44. This area
will see the highest rain chances through early tonight with only
light amounts expected. Aside from that the forecast for tonight
looks reasonable with a limited threat of thunder later tonight
across far southeast OK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A few showers possible across northeast Oklahoma this evening in
association with passing upper wave. Brief MVFR conditions expected
Monday morning across NE OK/NW AR with lower cloud deck, however
ceiling heights are expected to rise back to VFR conditions by noon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Showers lifting northeast across western OK will graze portions of
NE OK this afternoon. This activity should gradually dissipate
toward 00z as the isentropic lift forcing it weakens. Upper
shortwave trough over AZ/NM will slide northeast across our area
tonight. The 12z GFS/ECMWF and latest runs of the experimental
HRRR bring showers across NE OK tonight along the track of the
system. Farther to the south over west TX...increasing ~800 mb
frontogenetic lift in association with the upper wave will
produce one or more bands of rain and possibly a few lightning
strikes late tonight. This activity will spread northeast along
the frontal surface with the HRRR suggesting that it will clip
southeast OK going into Monday morning. Will carry higher chance
pops along the track of the upper wave up north...and down south
where it is most likely banded precip will occur...and only slight
chance pops in between.

Temperatures through Monday night...highs and lows...will run
roughly 10 degrees below average for this time of year. A warming
trend is expected by midweek...with highs returning to the 80s for
the latter part of the week.

The upper air pattern next week will be characterized by a deep
upper trough over the East and Gulf with a ridge over the Rockies.
Rich Gulf moisture will be scoured out by this pattern...with
tranquil weather expected. The upper features will slowly shift
east...with ridging over the Plains by the end of the week.
Eventually a deep upper trough over the West will eventually move
into the Plains early next week...and this will be our next chance
of storms. The moisture quality this system will have to work with
will not be as good as what we saw the last week of April however.
This may mitigate the overall severe potential.

Lacy

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12




000
FXUS64 KOUN 020309
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1009 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
MONDAY. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS.
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND CONT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY IMMPACT A FEW SITES THIS
EVENING... AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR AT SPS. OTHERWISE
CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW BEYOND THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS TO MENTION.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A DISORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...TO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...THEN ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
ON TUESDAY. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA
BORDER...AND WILL MOVE ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ITS INFLUENCE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AS
IT PASSES OVER OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE...WE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY. AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL BE IN PLACE FROM MID- TO LATE-
WEEK...WHICH WILL SLOW THE ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN...AND
RELATIVELY LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED...THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER SUBDUED NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS
THAT CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT COME TOGETHER...SO NO FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  64  44  71 /  30   0   0  10
HOBART OK         45  66  42  71 /  20   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  67  45  72 /  60  10   0  20
GAGE OK           40  65  40  71 /  30   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     43  63  41  71 /  30  10   0  10
DURANT OK         51  67  47  72 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 020309
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1009 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
MONDAY. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS.
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND CONT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY IMMPACT A FEW SITES THIS
EVENING... AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR AT SPS. OTHERWISE
CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW BEYOND THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS TO MENTION.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A DISORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...TO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...THEN ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
ON TUESDAY. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA
BORDER...AND WILL MOVE ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ITS INFLUENCE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AS
IT PASSES OVER OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE...WE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY. AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL BE IN PLACE FROM MID- TO LATE-
WEEK...WHICH WILL SLOW THE ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN...AND
RELATIVELY LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED...THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER SUBDUED NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS
THAT CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT COME TOGETHER...SO NO FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  64  44  71 /  30   0   0  10
HOBART OK         45  66  42  71 /  20   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  67  45  72 /  60  10   0  20
GAGE OK           40  65  40  71 /  30   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     43  63  41  71 /  30  10   0  10
DURANT OK         51  67  47  72 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 020248
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
948 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Enhanced area of light rain in a narrow band continues to spread
into parts of eastern OK this evening, likely in the vicinity of
850mb frontal zone that stretches just south of I-44. This area
will see the highest rain chances through early tonight with only
light amounts expected. Aside from that the forecast for tonight
looks reasonable with a limited threat of thunder later tonight
across far southeast OK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A few showers possible across northeast Oklahoma this evening in
association with passing upper wave. Brief MVFR conditions expected
Monday morning across NE OK/NW AR with lower cloud deck, however
ceiling heights are expected to rise back to VFR conditions by noon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Showers lifting northeast across western OK will graze portions of
NE OK this afternoon. This activity should gradually dissipate
toward 00z as the isentropic lift forcing it weakens. Upper
shortwave trough over AZ/NM will slide northeast across our area
tonight. The 12z GFS/ECMWF and latest runs of the experimental
HRRR bring showers across NE OK tonight along the track of the
system. Farther to the south over west TX...increasing ~800 mb
frontogenetic lift in association with the upper wave will
produce one or more bands of rain and possibly a few lightning
strikes late tonight. This activity will spread northeast along
the frontal surface with the HRRR suggesting that it will clip
southeast OK going into Monday morning. Will carry higher chance
pops along the track of the upper wave up north...and down south
where it is most likely banded precip will occur...and only slight
chance pops in between.

Temperatures through Monday night...highs and lows...will run
roughly 10 degrees below average for this time of year. A warming
trend is expected by midweek...with highs returning to the 80s for
the latter part of the week.

The upper air pattern next week will be characterized by a deep
upper trough over the East and Gulf with a ridge over the Rockies.
Rich Gulf moisture will be scoured out by this pattern...with
tranquil weather expected. The upper features will slowly shift
east...with ridging over the Plains by the end of the week.
Eventually a deep upper trough over the West will eventually move
into the Plains early next week...and this will be our next chance
of storms. The moisture quality this system will have to work with
will not be as good as what we saw the last week of April however.
This may mitigate the overall severe potential.

Lacy

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  65  45  72 /  60  10   0  10
FSM   52  69  47  71 /  20  10  10   0
MLC   50  66  44  71 /  20  10   0  10
BVO   46  65  40  72 /  40  10   0  10
FYV   47  63  39  67 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   48  63  42  67 /  30  20  10  10
MKO   48  65  44  71 /  30  10   0   0
MIO   47  63  41  70 /  40  20  10   0
F10   48  65  44  71 /  60  10   0   0
HHW   54  70  46  72 /  30  30   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 020248
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
948 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Enhanced area of light rain in a narrow band continues to spread
into parts of eastern OK this evening, likely in the vicinity of
850mb frontal zone that stretches just south of I-44. This area
will see the highest rain chances through early tonight with only
light amounts expected. Aside from that the forecast for tonight
looks reasonable with a limited threat of thunder later tonight
across far southeast OK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A few showers possible across northeast Oklahoma this evening in
association with passing upper wave. Brief MVFR conditions expected
Monday morning across NE OK/NW AR with lower cloud deck, however
ceiling heights are expected to rise back to VFR conditions by noon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Showers lifting northeast across western OK will graze portions of
NE OK this afternoon. This activity should gradually dissipate
toward 00z as the isentropic lift forcing it weakens. Upper
shortwave trough over AZ/NM will slide northeast across our area
tonight. The 12z GFS/ECMWF and latest runs of the experimental
HRRR bring showers across NE OK tonight along the track of the
system. Farther to the south over west TX...increasing ~800 mb
frontogenetic lift in association with the upper wave will
produce one or more bands of rain and possibly a few lightning
strikes late tonight. This activity will spread northeast along
the frontal surface with the HRRR suggesting that it will clip
southeast OK going into Monday morning. Will carry higher chance
pops along the track of the upper wave up north...and down south
where it is most likely banded precip will occur...and only slight
chance pops in between.

Temperatures through Monday night...highs and lows...will run
roughly 10 degrees below average for this time of year. A warming
trend is expected by midweek...with highs returning to the 80s for
the latter part of the week.

The upper air pattern next week will be characterized by a deep
upper trough over the East and Gulf with a ridge over the Rockies.
Rich Gulf moisture will be scoured out by this pattern...with
tranquil weather expected. The upper features will slowly shift
east...with ridging over the Plains by the end of the week.
Eventually a deep upper trough over the West will eventually move
into the Plains early next week...and this will be our next chance
of storms. The moisture quality this system will have to work with
will not be as good as what we saw the last week of April however.
This may mitigate the overall severe potential.

Lacy

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  65  45  72 /  60  10   0  10
FSM   52  69  47  71 /  20  10  10   0
MLC   50  66  44  71 /  20  10   0  10
BVO   46  65  40  72 /  40  10   0  10
FYV   47  63  39  67 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   48  63  42  67 /  30  20  10  10
MKO   48  65  44  71 /  30  10   0   0
MIO   47  63  41  70 /  40  20  10   0
F10   48  65  44  71 /  60  10   0   0
HHW   54  70  46  72 /  30  30   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 012352
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
652 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A few showers possible across northeast Oklahoma this evening in
association with passing upper wave. Brief MVFR conditions expected
Monday morning across NE OK/NW AR with lower cloud deck, however
ceiling heights are expected to rise back to VFR conditions by noon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Showers lifting northeast across western OK will graze portions of
NE OK this afternoon. This activity should gradually dissipate
toward 00z as the isentropic lift forcing it weakens. Upper
shortwave trough over AZ/NM will slide northeast across our area
tonight. The 12z GFS/ECMWF and latest runs of the experimental
HRRR bring showers across NE OK tonight along the track of the
system. Farther to the south over west TX...increasing ~800 mb
frontogenetic lift in association with the upper wave will
produce one or more bands of rain and possibly a few lightning
strikes late tonight. This activity will spread northeast along
the frontal surface with the HRRR suggesting that it will clip
southeast OK going into Monday morning. Will carry higher chance
pops along the track of the upper wave up north...and down south
where it is most likely banded precip will occur...and only slight
chance pops in between.

Temperatures through Monday night...highs and lows...will run
roughly 10 degrees below average for this time of year. A warming
trend is expected by midweek...with highs returning to the 80s for
the latter part of the week.

The upper air pattern next week will be characterized by a deep
upper trough over the East and Gulf with a ridge over the Rockies.
Rich Gulf moisture will be scoured out by this pattern...with
tranquil weather expected. The upper features will slowly shift
east...with ridging over the Plains by the end of the week.
Eventually a deep upper trough over the West will eventually move
into the Plains early next week...and this will be our next chance
of storms. The moisture quality this system will have to work with
will not be as good as what we saw the last week of April however.
This may mitigate the overall severe potential.

Lacy

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 012352
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
652 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A few showers possible across northeast Oklahoma this evening in
association with passing upper wave. Brief MVFR conditions expected
Monday morning across NE OK/NW AR with lower cloud deck, however
ceiling heights are expected to rise back to VFR conditions by noon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Showers lifting northeast across western OK will graze portions of
NE OK this afternoon. This activity should gradually dissipate
toward 00z as the isentropic lift forcing it weakens. Upper
shortwave trough over AZ/NM will slide northeast across our area
tonight. The 12z GFS/ECMWF and latest runs of the experimental
HRRR bring showers across NE OK tonight along the track of the
system. Farther to the south over west TX...increasing ~800 mb
frontogenetic lift in association with the upper wave will
produce one or more bands of rain and possibly a few lightning
strikes late tonight. This activity will spread northeast along
the frontal surface with the HRRR suggesting that it will clip
southeast OK going into Monday morning. Will carry higher chance
pops along the track of the upper wave up north...and down south
where it is most likely banded precip will occur...and only slight
chance pops in between.

Temperatures through Monday night...highs and lows...will run
roughly 10 degrees below average for this time of year. A warming
trend is expected by midweek...with highs returning to the 80s for
the latter part of the week.

The upper air pattern next week will be characterized by a deep
upper trough over the East and Gulf with a ridge over the Rockies.
Rich Gulf moisture will be scoured out by this pattern...with
tranquil weather expected. The upper features will slowly shift
east...with ridging over the Plains by the end of the week.
Eventually a deep upper trough over the West will eventually move
into the Plains early next week...and this will be our next chance
of storms. The moisture quality this system will have to work with
will not be as good as what we saw the last week of April however.
This may mitigate the overall severe potential.

Lacy

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12




000
FXUS64 KOUN 012259
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
600 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND CONT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY IMMPACT A FEW SITES THIS
EVENING... AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR AT SPS. OTHERWISE
CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW BEYOND THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS TO MENTION.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

.DISCUSSION...
A DISORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...TO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...THEN ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
ON TUESDAY. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA
BORDER...AND WILL MOVE ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ITS INFLUENCE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AS
IT PASSES OVER OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE...WE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY. AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL BE IN PLACE FROM MID- TO LATE-
WEEK...WHICH WILL SLOW THE ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN...AND
RELATIVELY LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED...THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER SUBDUED NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS
THAT CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT COME TOGETHER...SO NO FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  64  44  71 /  30   0   0  10
HOBART OK         45  66  42  71 /  20   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  67  45  72 /  30  10   0  20
GAGE OK           40  65  40  71 /  30   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     43  63  41  71 /  30  10   0  10
DURANT OK         51  67  47  72 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 012259
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
600 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND CONT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY IMMPACT A FEW SITES THIS
EVENING... AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR AT SPS. OTHERWISE
CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW BEYOND THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS TO MENTION.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

.DISCUSSION...
A DISORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...TO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...THEN ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
ON TUESDAY. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA
BORDER...AND WILL MOVE ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ITS INFLUENCE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AS
IT PASSES OVER OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE...WE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY. AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL BE IN PLACE FROM MID- TO LATE-
WEEK...WHICH WILL SLOW THE ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN...AND
RELATIVELY LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED...THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER SUBDUED NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS
THAT CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT COME TOGETHER...SO NO FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  64  44  71 /  30   0   0  10
HOBART OK         45  66  42  71 /  20   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  67  45  72 /  30  10   0  20
GAGE OK           40  65  40  71 /  30   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     43  63  41  71 /  30  10   0  10
DURANT OK         51  67  47  72 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 012045
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A DISORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...TO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...THEN ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
ON TUESDAY. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA
BORDER...AND WILL MOVE ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ITS INFLUENCE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AS
IT PASSES OVER OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE...WE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY. AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL BE IN PLACE FROM MID- TO LATE-
WEEK...WHICH WILL SLOW THE ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN...AND
RELATIVELY LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED...THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER SUBDUED NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS
THAT CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT COME TOGETHER...SO NO FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  64  44  71 /  30   0   0  10
HOBART OK         45  66  42  71 /  20   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  67  45  72 /  30  10   0  20
GAGE OK           40  65  40  71 /  30   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     43  63  41  71 /  30  10   0  10
DURANT OK         51  67  47  72 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 012045
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A DISORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...TO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...THEN ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
ON TUESDAY. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA
BORDER...AND WILL MOVE ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ITS INFLUENCE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AS
IT PASSES OVER OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE...WE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY. AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL BE IN PLACE FROM MID- TO LATE-
WEEK...WHICH WILL SLOW THE ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN...AND
RELATIVELY LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED...THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER SUBDUED NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS
THAT CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT COME TOGETHER...SO NO FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  64  44  71 /  30   0   0  10
HOBART OK         45  66  42  71 /  20   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  67  45  72 /  30  10   0  20
GAGE OK           40  65  40  71 /  30   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     43  63  41  71 /  30  10   0  10
DURANT OK         51  67  47  72 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 012003
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
303 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Showers lifting northeast across western OK will graze portions of
NE OK this afternoon. This activity should gradually dissipate
toward 00z as the isentropic lift forcing it weakens. Upper
shortwave trough over AZ/NM will slide northeast across our area
tonight. The 12z GFS/ECMWF and latest runs of the experimental
HRRR bring showers across NE OK tonight along the track of the
system. Farther to the south over west TX...increasing ~800 mb
frontogenetic lift in association with the upper wave will
produce one or more bands of rain and possibly a few lightning
strikes late tonight. This activity will spread northeast along
the frontal surface with the HRRR suggesting that it will clip
southeast OK going into Monday morning. Will carry higher chance
pops along the track of the upper wave up north...and down south
where it is most likely banded precip will occur...and only slight
chance pops in between.

Temperatures through Monday night...highs and lows...will run
roughly 10 degrees below average for this time of year. A warming
trend is expected by midweek...with highs returning to the 80s for
the latter part of the week.

The upper air pattern next week will be characterized by a deep
upper trough over the East and Gulf with a ridge over the Rockies.
Rich Gulf moisture will be scoured out by this pattern...with
tranquil weather expected. The upper features will slowly shift
east...with ridging over the Plains by the end of the week.
Eventually a deep upper trough over the West will eventually move
into the Plains early next week...and this will be our next chance
of storms. The moisture quality this system will have to work with
will not be as good as what we saw the last week of April however.
This may mitigate the overall severe potential.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  65  45  72 /  40  10   0  10
FSM   52  69  47  71 /  20  10  10   0
MLC   50  66  44  71 /  20  10   0  10
BVO   46  65  40  72 /  40  10   0  10
FYV   47  63  39  67 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   48  63  42  67 /  20  20  10  10
MKO   48  65  44  71 /  20  10   0   0
MIO   47  63  41  70 /  40  20  10   0
F10   48  65  44  71 /  20  10   0   0
HHW   54  70  46  72 /  30  30   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 011746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1246 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas early
this afternoon should give way to MVFR ceilings from northwest to
southeast this afternoon and tonight. At the same time...rain
chances will become possible across the region through tonight as
an upper level low shifts eastward. Will continue prob30 groups
for precip timing across all TAF sites. MVFR ceilings are expected
to remain common over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas
through the end of the TAF period Monday morning behind the
exiting precip chances.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
This morning...on a synoptic scale...an upper low was positioned
over Arizona and New Mexico while a second upper low was located
over Kansas and Nebraska. Southerly upper flow from the Arizona
upper low was converging with the northerly upper flow from the
Kansas upper low...creating a mid level frontal boundary to the
northwest of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. A few
showers had developed along this boundary early this
morning...though had dissipated by mid morning as they ran into
drier air over North Central Oklahoma. Across Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas at mid morning...mostly clear to partly cloudy
conditions with west to northwesterly surface winds were common.

This afternoon...the mid level frontal boundary is expected to
push southeast into the CWA as the Arizona low becomes more of an
open wave as it shifts east and the Kansas low continues to
weaken. Latest HRRR runs try to develop some precip along this
boundary over Northeast Oklahoma this afternoon. For now will
continue with the current small pops northwest of Interstate
44...as the drier low level air over the region could hinder
precip reaching the ground. The better precip chances continue to
look to be tonight into Monday as the Arizona upper low moves into
the Southern Plains.

Ahead of the mid level boundary...Partly cloudy skies west to
mostly clear skies east will allow for temps to warm into the
60s-lower 70s from northwest to southeast over the CWA. As the
boundary moves into the region...cloud cover should begin to
increase with mostly cloudy conditions over the CWA expected this
evening. Also today...west to northwesterly winds 5 to 15 mph should
continue across the CWA.

Morning update will be to add minor tweaks to the afternoon
temp/pop/dewpoint/wind grinds and adjust timing of increasing sky
grids. Otherwise...current forecasts seems to be in good shape at
this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  65  45  72 /  30  10   0  10
FSM   52  69  47  71 /  40  10  10   0
MLC   50  66  44  71 /  30  10   0  10
BVO   46  65  40  72 /  30  10   0  10
FYV   47  63  39  67 /  30  10  10  10
BYV   48  63  42  67 /  20  20  10  10
MKO   48  65  44  71 /  30  10   0   0
MIO   47  63  41  70 /  20  20  10   0
F10   48  65  44  71 /  30  10   0   0
HHW   54  70  46  72 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KOUN 011740
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS OK AND N
TX. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA...WHICH SHOULD
HAVE BRIEF OR MINIMAL EFFECTS ON VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME...AND SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CMS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  46  64  44 /  20  30  10   0
HOBART OK         62  44  66  42 /  30  30  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  48  67  45 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           57  40  64  39 /  40  30  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  44  64  41 /  20  30  10   0
DURANT OK         72  52  66  47 /   0  50  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 011541
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1041 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
SHOWING UP ON RADARS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND MAY MOVE INTO
FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY...WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PROGRESSING MORE OR LESS AS
FORECAST...AND NO UPDATES ARE CURRENTLY PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
01/12Z TAF DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO YIELD TO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL END ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WITH
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL
INCLUDE PROB30 ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF DIRECT
IMPACTS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY IN FORECAST PERIOD WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND STAY IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM FOUR-CORNERS REGION INTO
CENTRAL PLAINS PROGD TO SHEAR OUT AND MOVE PROGRESSIVELY OVER AND
NORTH OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. EVEN THOUGH
MODELS ARE HANDLING THE MID-UPPER PATTERN SIMILARLY...DIFFERENCES
IN LOCATION/STRENGTH OF ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONES AND MOISTURE
YIELDS QUITE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO LIGHT RAIN
POTENTIAL. BEST MOISTURE AND PROXIMITY TO H85-H70 BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR MORE ORGANIZED RAIN ACTIVITY OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND AREAS SOUTH TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
BEFORE THEN...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO TROUGH AXIS.

WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING...LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF OKLAHOMA. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY MORNING. SLOW
RETURN OF MOISTURE OVER THE COMING WEEK WHICH WILL AFFECT POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS NEXT WEEKEND. LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING SATURDAY AND
LASTING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK WITH SEASONABLY RICH
MOISTURE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  46  64  44 /  20  30  10   0
HOBART OK         62  44  66  42 /  30  30  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  48  67  45 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           57  40  64  39 /  40  30  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  44  64  41 /  20  30  10   0
DURANT OK         72  52  66  47 /   0  50  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 011523
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1023 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
This morning...on a synoptic scale...an upper low was positioned
over Arizona and New Mexico while a second upper low was located
over Kansas and Nebraska. Southerly upper flow from the Arizona
upper low was converging with the northerly upper flow from the
Kansas upper low...creating a mid level frontal boundary to the
northwest of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. A few
showers had developed along this boundary early this
morning...though had dissipated by mid morning as they ran into
drier air over North Central Oklahoma. Across Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas at mid morning...mostly clear to partly cloudy
conditions with west to northwesterly surface winds were common.

This afternoon...the mid level frontal boundary is expected to
push southeast into the CWA as the Arizona low becomes more of an
open wave as it shifts east and the Kansas low continues to
weaken. Latest HRRR runs try to develop some precip along this
boundary over Northeast Oklahoma this afternoon. For now will
continue with the current small pops northwest of Interstate
44...as the drier low level air over the region could hinder
precip reaching the ground. The better precip chances continue to
look to be tonight into Monday as the Arizona upper low moves into
the Southern Plains.

Ahead of the mid level boundary...Partly cloudy skies west to
mostly clear skies east will allow for temps to warm into the
60s-lower 70s from northwest to southeast over the CWA. As the
boundary moves into the region...cloud cover should begin to
increase with mostly cloudy conditions over the CWA expected this
evening. Also today...west to northwesterly winds 5 to 15 mph should
continue across the CWA.

Morning update will be to add minor tweaks to the afternoon
temp/pop/dewpoint/wind grinds and adjust timing of increasing sky
grids. Otherwise...current forecasts seems to be in good shape at
this time.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  48  64  46 /  10  30  10   0
FSM   75  51  68  47 /   0  40  20  10
MLC   70  50  66  45 /   0  40  10   0
BVO   64  46  63  43 /  20  40  10   0
FYV   68  48  62  42 /   0  30  20  10
BYV   70  49  62  43 /   0  30  30  10
MKO   68  48  65  44 /   0  40  10   0
MIO   65  46  63  42 /   0  30  10   0
F10   67  48  65  45 /   0  40  10   0
HHW   76  53  69  47 /   0  50  20   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 011142
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
01/12Z TAF DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO YIELD TO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL END ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WITH
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL
INCLUDE PROB30 ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF DIRECT
IMPACTS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY IN FORECAST PERIOD WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND STAY IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM FOUR-CORNERS REGION INTO
CENTRAL PLAINS PROGD TO SHEAR OUT AND MOVE PROGRESSIVELY OVER AND
NORTH OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. EVEN THOUGH
MODELS ARE HANDLING THE MID-UPPER PATTERN SIMILARLY...DIFFERENCES
IN LOCATION/STRENGTH OF ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONES AND MOISTURE
YIELDS QUITE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO LIGHT RAIN
POTENTIAL. BEST MOISTURE AND PROXIMITY TO H85-H70 BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR MORE ORGANIZED RAIN ACTIVITY OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND AREAS SOUTH TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
BEFORE THEN...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO TROUGH AXIS.

WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING...LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF OKLAHOMA. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY MORNING. SLOW
RETURN OF MOISTURE OVER THE COMING WEEK WHICH WILL AFFECT POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS NEXT WEEKEND. LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING SATURDAY AND
LASTING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK WITH SEASONABLY RICH
MOISTURE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  46  64  44 /  20  40  10   0
HOBART OK         62  44  66  42 /  30  30  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  48  67  45 /  20  40  10   0
GAGE OK           57  40  64  39 /  40  30  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  44  64  41 /  30  30  10   0
DURANT OK         72  52  66  47 /   0  50  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 011142
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
01/12Z TAF DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO YIELD TO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL END ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WITH
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL
INCLUDE PROB30 ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF DIRECT
IMPACTS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY IN FORECAST PERIOD WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND STAY IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM FOUR-CORNERS REGION INTO
CENTRAL PLAINS PROGD TO SHEAR OUT AND MOVE PROGRESSIVELY OVER AND
NORTH OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. EVEN THOUGH
MODELS ARE HANDLING THE MID-UPPER PATTERN SIMILARLY...DIFFERENCES
IN LOCATION/STRENGTH OF ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONES AND MOISTURE
YIELDS QUITE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO LIGHT RAIN
POTENTIAL. BEST MOISTURE AND PROXIMITY TO H85-H70 BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR MORE ORGANIZED RAIN ACTIVITY OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND AREAS SOUTH TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
BEFORE THEN...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO TROUGH AXIS.

WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING...LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF OKLAHOMA. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY MORNING. SLOW
RETURN OF MOISTURE OVER THE COMING WEEK WHICH WILL AFFECT POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS NEXT WEEKEND. LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING SATURDAY AND
LASTING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK WITH SEASONABLY RICH
MOISTURE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  46  64  44 /  20  40  10   0
HOBART OK         62  44  66  42 /  30  30  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  48  67  45 /  20  40  10   0
GAGE OK           57  40  64  39 /  40  30  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  44  64  41 /  30  30  10   0
DURANT OK         72  52  66  47 /   0  50  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 011118
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
618 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR cigs will increase from west to east today ahead of the next
approaching system. Scattered rain will develop this evening and
overnight...so will carry prob groups at all sites between 00z-
12z. will also carry thunder at KMLC and KFSM after 06z as
elevated instability increases across se OK and wrn AR.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The upper low over Arizona will open up and its remnants will
shear eastward across the plains over the next 24 hours.
Sufficient mid-level moisture will accompany the system for
showers and some thunderstorms to develop in the region late today
and tonight. Point soundings suggest a fair amount of elevated
CAPE will develop tonight in far southeast Oklahoma for
thunderstorms. Additionally the deep-layer shear looks like it
could be sufficient for storm organization and later forecasts may
need to include the mention of an isolated severe storm. The
precipitation will exit our area early Monday.

On Tuesday, a fairly strong short-wave will cross eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas from the northwest. It appears that this
system will not have enough moisture available to generate
precipitation in our area, but sometimes the precipitation
potential is underestimated with systems dropping in from the
northwest.

An omega block upper-level pattern will develop by mid week across
the country and our area will see rising heights aloft from
Wednesday into Saturday. This is expected to keep the weather
quiet through that period. By late in the next weekend southwest
flow aloft should reach the area.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 010942
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
442 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM FOUR-CORNERS REGION INTO
CENTRAL PLAINS PROGD TO SHEAR OUT AND MOVE PROGRESSIVELY OVER AND
NORTH OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. EVEN THOUGH
MODELS ARE HANDLING THE MID-UPPER PATTERN SIMILARLY...DIFFERENCES
IN LOCATION/STRENGTH OF ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONES AND MOISTURE
YIELDS QUITE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO LIGHT RAIN
POTENTIAL. BEST MOISTURE AND PROXIMITY TO H85-H70 BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR MORE ORGANIZED RAIN ACTIVITY OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND AREAS SOUTH TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
BEFORE THEN...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO TROUGH AXIS.

WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING...LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF OKLAHOMA. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY MORNING. SLOW
RETURN OF MOISTURE OVER THE COMING WEEK WHICH WILL AFFECT POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS NEXT WEEKEND. LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING SATURDAY AND
LASTING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK WITH SEASONABLY RICH
MOISTURE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  46  64  44 /  20  40  10   0
HOBART OK         62  44  66  42 /  30  30  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  48  67  45 /  20  40  10   0
GAGE OK           57  40  64  39 /  40  30  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  44  64  41 /  20  30  10   0
DURANT OK         72  52  66  47 /   0  50  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 010818
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
318 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The upper low over Arizona will open up and its remnants will
shear eastward across the plains over the next 24 hours.
Sufficient mid-level moisture will accompany the system for
showers and some thunderstorms to develop in the region late today
and tonight. Point soundings suggest a fair amount of elevated
CAPE will develop tonight in far southeast Oklahoma for
thunderstorms. Additionally the deep-layer shear looks like it
could be sufficient for storm organization and later forecasts may
need to include the mention of an isolated severe storm. The
precipitation will exit our area early Monday.

On Tuesday, a fairly strong short-wave will cross eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas from the northwest. It appears that this
system will not have enough moisture available to generate
precipitation in our area, but sometimes the precipitation
potential is underestimated with systems dropping in from the
northwest.

An omega block upper-level pattern will develop by mid week across
the country and our area will see rising heights aloft from
Wednesday into Saturday. This is expected to keep the weather
quiet through that period. By late in the next weekend southwest
flow aloft should reach the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  48  64  46 /  10  30  10   0
FSM   74  51  68  47 /   0  40  20  10
MLC   70  50  66  45 /   0  40  10   0
BVO   64  46  63  43 /  20  40  10   0
FYV   68  48  62  42 /   0  30  20  10
BYV   70  49  62  43 /   0  30  30  10
MKO   68  48  65  44 /   0  40  10   0
MIO   65  46  63  42 /   0  30  10   0
F10   67  48  65  45 /   0  40  10   0
HHW   74  53  69  47 /   0  50  20   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....08




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