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000
FXUS64 KOUN 052345 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
545 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
06/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT AREA OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTH/WEST OKLAHOMA
SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. CANNOT RULE
OUT BRIEF MVFR VIS/CIG UNDER AREA OF RAIN. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGH EARLY PART OF FORECAST PERIOD. CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND EXPECTED AFTER 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS ALL BUT FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA BASED ON CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTENING/COOLING
TRENDS AND HIGH-RES MODEL TRENDS. ALTHOUGH POPS WILL BE FAIRLY
HIGH...MOST RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN
INCH WITH POSSIBLY NEAR ONE-QUARTER FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. IF ANY RAIN OCCURS, SOME IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT
QUICKLY AND LEAVE MODERATE NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEEK
BRINGS GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SERIES OF DRY FRONTS, THE NEXT
OF WHICH IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW THIS ONE INTO MONDAY AND COULD RAISE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
THAT AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DRY FRONT MAY PASS MID-WEEK BEFORE THE
NORTHERLY FLOW GIVES WAY TO WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMALS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A MILD WARMING
TREND STARTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  52  32  57 /  60   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  53  30  56 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  31  55  31  60 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           21  55  26  53 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     28  51  31  53 /  60   0   0   0
DURANT OK         35  53  34  60 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 052345 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
545 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
06/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT AREA OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTH/WEST OKLAHOMA
SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. CANNOT RULE
OUT BRIEF MVFR VIS/CIG UNDER AREA OF RAIN. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGH EARLY PART OF FORECAST PERIOD. CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND EXPECTED AFTER 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS ALL BUT FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA BASED ON CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTENING/COOLING
TRENDS AND HIGH-RES MODEL TRENDS. ALTHOUGH POPS WILL BE FAIRLY
HIGH...MOST RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN
INCH WITH POSSIBLY NEAR ONE-QUARTER FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. IF ANY RAIN OCCURS, SOME IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT
QUICKLY AND LEAVE MODERATE NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEEK
BRINGS GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SERIES OF DRY FRONTS, THE NEXT
OF WHICH IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW THIS ONE INTO MONDAY AND COULD RAISE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
THAT AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DRY FRONT MAY PASS MID-WEEK BEFORE THE
NORTHERLY FLOW GIVES WAY TO WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMALS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A MILD WARMING
TREND STARTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  52  32  57 /  60   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  53  30  56 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  31  55  31  60 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           21  55  26  53 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     28  51  31  53 /  60   0   0   0
DURANT OK         35  53  34  60 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 052345 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
545 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
06/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT AREA OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTH/WEST OKLAHOMA
SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. CANNOT RULE
OUT BRIEF MVFR VIS/CIG UNDER AREA OF RAIN. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGH EARLY PART OF FORECAST PERIOD. CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND EXPECTED AFTER 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS ALL BUT FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA BASED ON CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTENING/COOLING
TRENDS AND HIGH-RES MODEL TRENDS. ALTHOUGH POPS WILL BE FAIRLY
HIGH...MOST RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN
INCH WITH POSSIBLY NEAR ONE-QUARTER FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. IF ANY RAIN OCCURS, SOME IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT
QUICKLY AND LEAVE MODERATE NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEEK
BRINGS GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SERIES OF DRY FRONTS, THE NEXT
OF WHICH IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW THIS ONE INTO MONDAY AND COULD RAISE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
THAT AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DRY FRONT MAY PASS MID-WEEK BEFORE THE
NORTHERLY FLOW GIVES WAY TO WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMALS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A MILD WARMING
TREND STARTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  52  32  57 /  60   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  53  30  56 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  31  55  31  60 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           21  55  26  53 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     28  51  31  53 /  60   0   0   0
DURANT OK         35  53  34  60 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11



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000
FXUS64 KTSA 052327
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
527 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. There
will be a small chance of light rain or snow at KMLC late tonight
and early Saturday, but the chances are too low to include in the
TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A weak upper low pressure was positioned over the Texas Panhandle
this afternoon...with a surface low just to the southeast over
the Texas Panhandle/far Southwest Oklahoma. This area of low
pressure was progressing southeastward with increasing cloud cover
over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. A wind shift out of
the northwest was also apparent to the west of a trof axis. East
of the axis...southerly winds and drier air over the CWA had
created some areas of limited fire weather dangers this afternoon.

Overnight tonight...the area of low pressure is expected to
continue to push southeast into Central Texas and then into
Eastern Texas Saturday morning. As the low moves through the
region tonight into Saturday morning...a very small chance of a
light rain shower and or perhaps a snowflake or two looks to be
possible over parts of Eastern Oklahoma...mainly near the
vicinity of the low. A lack of moisture and a weak area of warm
air advection residing just west southwest of the CWA
tonight...looks to keep the better chances just outside of the
CWA. However...locations mainly west of Highway 75 in Northeast
Oklahoma and along and west of the Indian Nation Turnpike in
Southeast Oklahoma could possibly see some light precip. Will
carry slightly higher pops over far Southeast Oklahoma...closer to
the center of the low. The potential for a snowflake looks to be
in Northeast Oklahoma...where surface temps are expected to be
near/below freezing. For rest of the CWA...mostly cloudy
conditions with a wind shift out of the west northwest will help
temps get down into the upper 20s to mid 30s for most locations.

During the day Saturday...skies should clear out from northwest to
southeast with light west northwesterly winds. These conditions
should keep temps a few degrees cooler compared to today.
Overnight Saturday night...winds return out of the southwest ahead
of a cold front dropping south through the Central United States.
This front is associated with a closed low forecast to move out of
Central Canada and into the Great Lakes Region Sunday and toward
the East Coast for the first part of next week. Across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...the cold front looks to move
across the CWA Sunday afternoon/evening with gusty northwesterly
winds of 15-30+ mph behind the front. Gusty winds and drier air
will allow for an increase in fire weather dangers over the region
Sunday afternoon. A cooler airmass will filter into the region
within the northerly flow Sunday night.

Upper level northerly flow continues for the first half of next
week over the CWA due to a longwave trof over the East Coast and a
ridge of high pressure over the West Coast. This will keep cooler
temperatures over the region with highs in the 40s possible Monday
and Tuesday. Also for Monday...the gusty northerly winds in the
20 to near 40 mph range at the surface are expected to continue.
These wind speeds combined with drier air will continue very high
to elevated fire weather dangers over much of the CWA Monday
afternoon.

Latest model solutions continue to try and break down the West
Coast ridge of high pressure for the second half of next week. If
this verifies...then more downslope flow over the region will help
to warm temperatures back up toward the seasonal average
Thursday/Friday.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05



000
FXUS64 KTSA 052327
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
527 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. There
will be a small chance of light rain or snow at KMLC late tonight
and early Saturday, but the chances are too low to include in the
TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A weak upper low pressure was positioned over the Texas Panhandle
this afternoon...with a surface low just to the southeast over
the Texas Panhandle/far Southwest Oklahoma. This area of low
pressure was progressing southeastward with increasing cloud cover
over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. A wind shift out of
the northwest was also apparent to the west of a trof axis. East
of the axis...southerly winds and drier air over the CWA had
created some areas of limited fire weather dangers this afternoon.

Overnight tonight...the area of low pressure is expected to
continue to push southeast into Central Texas and then into
Eastern Texas Saturday morning. As the low moves through the
region tonight into Saturday morning...a very small chance of a
light rain shower and or perhaps a snowflake or two looks to be
possible over parts of Eastern Oklahoma...mainly near the
vicinity of the low. A lack of moisture and a weak area of warm
air advection residing just west southwest of the CWA
tonight...looks to keep the better chances just outside of the
CWA. However...locations mainly west of Highway 75 in Northeast
Oklahoma and along and west of the Indian Nation Turnpike in
Southeast Oklahoma could possibly see some light precip. Will
carry slightly higher pops over far Southeast Oklahoma...closer to
the center of the low. The potential for a snowflake looks to be
in Northeast Oklahoma...where surface temps are expected to be
near/below freezing. For rest of the CWA...mostly cloudy
conditions with a wind shift out of the west northwest will help
temps get down into the upper 20s to mid 30s for most locations.

During the day Saturday...skies should clear out from northwest to
southeast with light west northwesterly winds. These conditions
should keep temps a few degrees cooler compared to today.
Overnight Saturday night...winds return out of the southwest ahead
of a cold front dropping south through the Central United States.
This front is associated with a closed low forecast to move out of
Central Canada and into the Great Lakes Region Sunday and toward
the East Coast for the first part of next week. Across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...the cold front looks to move
across the CWA Sunday afternoon/evening with gusty northwesterly
winds of 15-30+ mph behind the front. Gusty winds and drier air
will allow for an increase in fire weather dangers over the region
Sunday afternoon. A cooler airmass will filter into the region
within the northerly flow Sunday night.

Upper level northerly flow continues for the first half of next
week over the CWA due to a longwave trof over the East Coast and a
ridge of high pressure over the West Coast. This will keep cooler
temperatures over the region with highs in the 40s possible Monday
and Tuesday. Also for Monday...the gusty northerly winds in the
20 to near 40 mph range at the surface are expected to continue.
These wind speeds combined with drier air will continue very high
to elevated fire weather dangers over much of the CWA Monday
afternoon.

Latest model solutions continue to try and break down the West
Coast ridge of high pressure for the second half of next week. If
this verifies...then more downslope flow over the region will help
to warm temperatures back up toward the seasonal average
Thursday/Friday.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05




000
FXUS64 KOUN 052253 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
453 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS ALL BUT FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA BASED ON CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTENING/COOLING
TRENDS AND HIGH-RES MODEL TRENDS. ALTHOUGH POPS WILL BE FAIRLY
HIGH...MOST RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN
INCH WITH POSSIBLY NEAR ONE-QUARTER FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. IF ANY RAIN OCCURS, SOME IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT
QUICKLY AND LEAVE MODERATE NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEEK
BRINGS GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SERIES OF DRY FRONTS, THE NEXT
OF WHICH IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW THIS ONE INTO MONDAY AND COULD RAISE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
THAT AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DRY FRONT MAY PASS MID-WEEK BEFORE THE
NORTHERLY FLOW GIVES WAY TO WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMALS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A MILD WARMING
TREND STARTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  52  32  57 /  60   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  53  30  56 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  31  55  31  60 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           21  55  26  53 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     28  51  31  53 /  60   0   0   0
DURANT OK         35  53  34  60 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 052253 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
453 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS ALL BUT FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA BASED ON CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTENING/COOLING
TRENDS AND HIGH-RES MODEL TRENDS. ALTHOUGH POPS WILL BE FAIRLY
HIGH...MOST RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN
INCH WITH POSSIBLY NEAR ONE-QUARTER FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. IF ANY RAIN OCCURS, SOME IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT
QUICKLY AND LEAVE MODERATE NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEEK
BRINGS GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SERIES OF DRY FRONTS, THE NEXT
OF WHICH IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW THIS ONE INTO MONDAY AND COULD RAISE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
THAT AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DRY FRONT MAY PASS MID-WEEK BEFORE THE
NORTHERLY FLOW GIVES WAY TO WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMALS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A MILD WARMING
TREND STARTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  52  32  57 /  60   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  53  30  56 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  31  55  31  60 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           21  55  26  53 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     28  51  31  53 /  60   0   0   0
DURANT OK         35  53  34  60 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 052125
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
325 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A weak upper low pressure was positioned over the Texas Panhandle
this afternoon...with a surface low just to the southeast over
the Texas Panhandle/far Southwest Oklahoma. This area of low
pressure was progressing southeastward with increasing cloud cover
over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. A wind shift out of
the northwest was also apparent to the west of a trof axis. East
of the axis...southerly winds and drier air over the CWA had
created some areas of limited fire weather dangers this afternoon.

Overnight tonight...the area of low pressure is expected to
continue to push southeast into Central Texas and then into
Eastern Texas Saturday morning. As the low moves through the
region tonight into Saturday morning...a very small chance of a
light rain shower and or perhaps a snowflake or two looks to be
possible over parts of Eastern Oklahoma...mainly near the
vicinity of the low. A lack of moisture and a weak area of warm
air advection residing just west southwest of the CWA
tonight...looks to keep the better chances just outside of the
CWA. However...locations mainly west of Highway 75 in Northeast
Oklahoma and along and west of the Indian Nation Turnpike in
Southeast Oklahoma could possibly see some light precip. Will
carry slightly higher pops over far Southeast Oklahoma...closer to
the center of the low. The potential for a snowflake looks to be
in Northeast Oklahoma...where surface temps are expected to be
near/below freezing. For rest of the CWA...mostly cloudy
conditions with a wind shift out of the west northwest will help
temps get down into the upper 20s to mid 30s for most locations.

During the day Saturday...skies should clear out from northwest to
southeast with light west northwesterly winds. These conditions
should keep temps a few degrees cooler compared to today.
Overnight Saturday night...winds return out of the southwest ahead
of a cold front dropping south through the Central United States.
This front is associated with a closed low forecast to move out of
Central Canada and into the Great Lakes Region Sunday and toward
the East Coast for the first part of next week. Across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...the cold front looks to move
across the CWA Sunday afternoon/evening with gusty northwesterly
winds of 15-30+ mph behind the front. Gusty winds and drier air
will allow for an increase in fire weather dangers over the region
Sunday afternoon. A cooler airmass will filter into the region
within the northerly flow Sunday night.

Upper level northerly flow continues for the first half of next
week over the CWA due to a longwave trof over the East Coast and a
ridge of high pressure over the West Coast. This will keep cooler
temperatures over the region with highs in the 40s possible Monday
and Tuesday. Also for Monday...the gusty northerly winds in the
20 to near 40 mph range at the surface are expected to continue.
These wind speeds combined with drier air will continue very high
to elevated fire weather dangers over much of the CWA Monday
afternoon.

Latest model solutions continue to try and break down the West
Coast ridge of high pressure for the second half of next week. If
this verifies...then more downslope flow over the region will help
to warm temperatures back up toward the seasonal average
Thursday/Friday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   32  52  35  57 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   30  54  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   33  53  33  59 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   27  50  29  56 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   27  49  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   30  51  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   31  52  32  57 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   30  50  34  54 /  10   0   0   0
F10   32  52  34  56 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   33  53  34  61 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 052125
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
325 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A weak upper low pressure was positioned over the Texas Panhandle
this afternoon...with a surface low just to the southeast over
the Texas Panhandle/far Southwest Oklahoma. This area of low
pressure was progressing southeastward with increasing cloud cover
over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. A wind shift out of
the northwest was also apparent to the west of a trof axis. East
of the axis...southerly winds and drier air over the CWA had
created some areas of limited fire weather dangers this afternoon.

Overnight tonight...the area of low pressure is expected to
continue to push southeast into Central Texas and then into
Eastern Texas Saturday morning. As the low moves through the
region tonight into Saturday morning...a very small chance of a
light rain shower and or perhaps a snowflake or two looks to be
possible over parts of Eastern Oklahoma...mainly near the
vicinity of the low. A lack of moisture and a weak area of warm
air advection residing just west southwest of the CWA
tonight...looks to keep the better chances just outside of the
CWA. However...locations mainly west of Highway 75 in Northeast
Oklahoma and along and west of the Indian Nation Turnpike in
Southeast Oklahoma could possibly see some light precip. Will
carry slightly higher pops over far Southeast Oklahoma...closer to
the center of the low. The potential for a snowflake looks to be
in Northeast Oklahoma...where surface temps are expected to be
near/below freezing. For rest of the CWA...mostly cloudy
conditions with a wind shift out of the west northwest will help
temps get down into the upper 20s to mid 30s for most locations.

During the day Saturday...skies should clear out from northwest to
southeast with light west northwesterly winds. These conditions
should keep temps a few degrees cooler compared to today.
Overnight Saturday night...winds return out of the southwest ahead
of a cold front dropping south through the Central United States.
This front is associated with a closed low forecast to move out of
Central Canada and into the Great Lakes Region Sunday and toward
the East Coast for the first part of next week. Across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...the cold front looks to move
across the CWA Sunday afternoon/evening with gusty northwesterly
winds of 15-30+ mph behind the front. Gusty winds and drier air
will allow for an increase in fire weather dangers over the region
Sunday afternoon. A cooler airmass will filter into the region
within the northerly flow Sunday night.

Upper level northerly flow continues for the first half of next
week over the CWA due to a longwave trof over the East Coast and a
ridge of high pressure over the West Coast. This will keep cooler
temperatures over the region with highs in the 40s possible Monday
and Tuesday. Also for Monday...the gusty northerly winds in the
20 to near 40 mph range at the surface are expected to continue.
These wind speeds combined with drier air will continue very high
to elevated fire weather dangers over much of the CWA Monday
afternoon.

Latest model solutions continue to try and break down the West
Coast ridge of high pressure for the second half of next week. If
this verifies...then more downslope flow over the region will help
to warm temperatures back up toward the seasonal average
Thursday/Friday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   32  52  35  57 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   30  54  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   33  53  33  59 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   27  50  29  56 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   27  49  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   30  51  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   31  52  32  57 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   30  50  34  54 /  10   0   0   0
F10   32  52  34  56 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   33  53  34  61 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 052125
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
325 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A weak upper low pressure was positioned over the Texas Panhandle
this afternoon...with a surface low just to the southeast over
the Texas Panhandle/far Southwest Oklahoma. This area of low
pressure was progressing southeastward with increasing cloud cover
over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. A wind shift out of
the northwest was also apparent to the west of a trof axis. East
of the axis...southerly winds and drier air over the CWA had
created some areas of limited fire weather dangers this afternoon.

Overnight tonight...the area of low pressure is expected to
continue to push southeast into Central Texas and then into
Eastern Texas Saturday morning. As the low moves through the
region tonight into Saturday morning...a very small chance of a
light rain shower and or perhaps a snowflake or two looks to be
possible over parts of Eastern Oklahoma...mainly near the
vicinity of the low. A lack of moisture and a weak area of warm
air advection residing just west southwest of the CWA
tonight...looks to keep the better chances just outside of the
CWA. However...locations mainly west of Highway 75 in Northeast
Oklahoma and along and west of the Indian Nation Turnpike in
Southeast Oklahoma could possibly see some light precip. Will
carry slightly higher pops over far Southeast Oklahoma...closer to
the center of the low. The potential for a snowflake looks to be
in Northeast Oklahoma...where surface temps are expected to be
near/below freezing. For rest of the CWA...mostly cloudy
conditions with a wind shift out of the west northwest will help
temps get down into the upper 20s to mid 30s for most locations.

During the day Saturday...skies should clear out from northwest to
southeast with light west northwesterly winds. These conditions
should keep temps a few degrees cooler compared to today.
Overnight Saturday night...winds return out of the southwest ahead
of a cold front dropping south through the Central United States.
This front is associated with a closed low forecast to move out of
Central Canada and into the Great Lakes Region Sunday and toward
the East Coast for the first part of next week. Across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...the cold front looks to move
across the CWA Sunday afternoon/evening with gusty northwesterly
winds of 15-30+ mph behind the front. Gusty winds and drier air
will allow for an increase in fire weather dangers over the region
Sunday afternoon. A cooler airmass will filter into the region
within the northerly flow Sunday night.

Upper level northerly flow continues for the first half of next
week over the CWA due to a longwave trof over the East Coast and a
ridge of high pressure over the West Coast. This will keep cooler
temperatures over the region with highs in the 40s possible Monday
and Tuesday. Also for Monday...the gusty northerly winds in the
20 to near 40 mph range at the surface are expected to continue.
These wind speeds combined with drier air will continue very high
to elevated fire weather dangers over much of the CWA Monday
afternoon.

Latest model solutions continue to try and break down the West
Coast ridge of high pressure for the second half of next week. If
this verifies...then more downslope flow over the region will help
to warm temperatures back up toward the seasonal average
Thursday/Friday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   32  52  35  57 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   30  54  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   33  53  33  59 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   27  50  29  56 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   27  49  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   30  51  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   31  52  32  57 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   30  50  34  54 /  10   0   0   0
F10   32  52  34  56 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   33  53  34  61 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....20



000
FXUS64 KOUN 052042
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
242 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. IF ANY RAIN OCCURS, SOME IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT
QUICKLY AND LEAVE MODERATE NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEEK
BRINGS GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SERIES OF DRY FRONTS, THE NEXT
OF WHICH IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW THIS ONE INTO MONDAY AND COULD RAISE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
THAT AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DRY FRONT MAY PASS MID-WEEK BEFORE THE
NORTHERLY FLOW GIVES WAY TO WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMALS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A MILD WARMING
TREND STARTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  52  32  57 /  20   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  53  30  56 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  31  55  31  60 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           21  55  26  53 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     28  51  31  53 /  20   0   0   0
DURANT OK         35  53  34  60 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

68/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 052042
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
242 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. IF ANY RAIN OCCURS, SOME IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT
QUICKLY AND LEAVE MODERATE NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEEK
BRINGS GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SERIES OF DRY FRONTS, THE NEXT
OF WHICH IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW THIS ONE INTO MONDAY AND COULD RAISE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
THAT AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DRY FRONT MAY PASS MID-WEEK BEFORE THE
NORTHERLY FLOW GIVES WAY TO WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMALS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A MILD WARMING
TREND STARTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  52  32  57 /  20   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  53  30  56 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  31  55  31  60 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           21  55  26  53 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     28  51  31  53 /  20   0   0   0
DURANT OK         35  53  34  60 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

68/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 052042
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
242 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. IF ANY RAIN OCCURS, SOME IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT
QUICKLY AND LEAVE MODERATE NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEEK
BRINGS GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SERIES OF DRY FRONTS, THE NEXT
OF WHICH IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW THIS ONE INTO MONDAY AND COULD RAISE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
THAT AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DRY FRONT MAY PASS MID-WEEK BEFORE THE
NORTHERLY FLOW GIVES WAY TO WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMALS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A MILD WARMING
TREND STARTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  52  32  57 /  20   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  53  30  56 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  31  55  31  60 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           21  55  26  53 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     28  51  31  53 /  20   0   0   0
DURANT OK         35  53  34  60 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

68/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 052042
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
242 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. IF ANY RAIN OCCURS, SOME IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT
QUICKLY AND LEAVE MODERATE NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEEK
BRINGS GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SERIES OF DRY FRONTS, THE NEXT
OF WHICH IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW THIS ONE INTO MONDAY AND COULD RAISE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
THAT AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DRY FRONT MAY PASS MID-WEEK BEFORE THE
NORTHERLY FLOW GIVES WAY TO WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMALS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A MILD WARMING
TREND STARTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  52  32  57 /  20   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  53  30  56 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  31  55  31  60 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           21  55  26  53 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     28  51  31  53 /  20   0   0   0
DURANT OK         35  53  34  60 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

68/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 052042
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
242 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. IF ANY RAIN OCCURS, SOME IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT
QUICKLY AND LEAVE MODERATE NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEEK
BRINGS GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SERIES OF DRY FRONTS, THE NEXT
OF WHICH IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW THIS ONE INTO MONDAY AND COULD RAISE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
THAT AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DRY FRONT MAY PASS MID-WEEK BEFORE THE
NORTHERLY FLOW GIVES WAY TO WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMALS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A MILD WARMING
TREND STARTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  52  32  57 /  20   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  53  30  56 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  31  55  31  60 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           21  55  26  53 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     28  51  31  53 /  20   0   0   0
DURANT OK         35  53  34  60 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

68/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 051820
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1220 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO EAST THEN NORTH THROUGH
THIS EVENING WHEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...
MADE A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING DENSE CIRRUS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS WAS BEGINNING TO
SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, SO
INCREASED COVERAGE IN THE SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC TROUGH WAS STARTING ITS DIG INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
DENSE MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INDICATED BY
THE MESONET. AS A RESULT, HAD TO ADJUST THE MAX TEMPERATURE GRIDS
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA A LITTLE BIT COOLER TO REFLECT THIS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY LOWER CEILINGS TO NEAR
MVFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AT OKC/OUN/PNC.
A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AT SURFACE...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.  THIS EVENING...WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. MOST MODELS INDICATE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE GFS AND NAM APPEAR A LITTLE
GENEROUS WITH QPF AMOUNTS.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FOR OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THE
WIND WILL BE VERY GUSTY AND STRONG ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ELEVATE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURE NEXT WEEK WILL START AROUND AVERAGE BUT WILL
WARM THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  54  32  57 /  20   0   0   0
HOBART OK         27  55  30  56 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  56  31  60 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           20  57  27  53 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     29  52  31  54 /  20   0   0   0
DURANT OK         34  55  34  59 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

68/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 051736
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING DENSE CIRRUS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS WAS BEGINNING TO
SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, SO
INCREASED COVERAGE IN THE SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC TROUGH WAS STARTING ITS DIG INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
DENSE MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INDICATED BY
THE MESONET. AS A RESULT, HAD TO ADJUST THE MAX TEMPERATURE GRIDS
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA A LITTLE BIT COOLER TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY LOWER CEILINGS TO NEAR
MVFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AT OKC/OUN/PNC.
A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AT SURFACE...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.  THIS EVENING...WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. MOST MODELS INDICATE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE GFS AND NAM APPEAR A LITTLE
GENEROUS WITH QPF AMOUNTS.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FOR OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THE
WIND WILL BE VERY GUSTY AND STRONG ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ELEVATE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURE NEXT WEEK WILL START AROUND AVERAGE BUT WILL
WARM THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  30  54  32 /   0  20   0   0
HOBART OK         53  27  55  30 /   0  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  30  56  31 /   0  10   0   0
GAGE OK           42  20  57  27 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     54  29  52  31 /   0  20   0   0
DURANT OK         54  34  55  34 /   0  30  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

68/09




000
FXUS64 KTSA 051652
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1052 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR conditions should prevail through the period, although an
increase in mid cloud will occur this evening, followed by low
clouds after midnight. Winds will shift from a southerly direction
to west and northwest late in the period after a cold frontal
passage.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
High clouds over most of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
will gradually transition east through the day, with more low and
mid clouds expected to move in from the northwest as the upper low
approaches later tonight. Have increased sky grids in most areas
to account for the high clouds, with some decreasing trend in the
early afternoon and another increase toward the evening and
overnight. Other weather elements appear on track, with high
temperatures today likely to be a few degrees warmer than
yesterday. Updated forecast already out.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CIGS will lower for the latter portion of the TAF period...however VFR
categories for all TAF elements are expected through the entire period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Dry and mild conditions today ahead of the fast moving wave
currently moving into the Texas Panhandle. This feature will
spread light precipitation into eastern Oklahoma tonight. Limited
low level moisture will hamper measurable precip chances. Low
level temps also look to remain generally too warm for any snow
however a few flakes may be realized given the cold temps aloft.

Saturday will remain dry and mild as the pattern across the CONUS
amplifies with ridging west / troughing east. The upper low
developing into the eastern trough will push a cold front through
the area on Sunday with gusty north winds following. The coldest
air looks to remain well north and east of the forecast
area...while above normal temps remain to our west. The result is
temperatures near to slightly above normal temps through late next
week. Several frontal passages are likely within the prevailing
northwesterly flow aloft...however limited moisture will keep any
frontal passage dry.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22




000
FXUS64 KTSA 051551
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
951 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
High clouds over most of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
will gradually transition east through the day, with more low and
mid clouds expected to move in from the northwest as the upper low
approaches later tonight. Have increased sky grids in most areas
to account for the high clouds, with some decreasing trend in the
early afternoon and another increase toward the evening and
overnight. Other weather elements appear on track, with high
temperatures today likely to be a few degrees warmer than
yesterday. Updated forecast already out.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CIGS will lower for the latter portion of the TAF period...however VFR
categories for all TAF elements are expected through the entire period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Dry and mild conditions today ahead of the fast moving wave
currently moving into the Texas Panhandle. This feature will
spread light precipitation into eastern Oklahoma tonight. Limited
low level moisture will hamper measurable precip chances. Low
level temps also look to remain generally too warm for any snow
however a few flakes may be realized given the cold temps aloft.

Saturday will remain dry and mild as the pattern across the CONUS
amplifies with ridging west / troughing east. The upper low
developing into the eastern trough will push a cold front through
the area on Sunday with gusty north winds following. The coldest
air looks to remain well north and east of the forecast
area...while above normal temps remain to our west. The result is
temperatures near to slightly above normal temps through late next
week. Several frontal passages are likely within the prevailing
northwesterly flow aloft...however limited moisture will keep any
frontal passage dry.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22




000
FXUS64 KOUN 051233
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
633 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY LOWER CEILINGS TO NEAR
MVFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AT OKC/OUN/PNC.
A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AT SURFACE...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.  THIS EVENING...WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. MOST MODELS INDICATE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE GFS AND NAM APPEAR A LITTLE
GENEROUS WITH QPF AMOUNTS.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FOR OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THE
WIND WILL BE VERY GUSTY AND STRONG ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ELEVATE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURE NEXT WEEK WILL START AROUND AVERAGE BUT WILL
WARM THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  30  54  32 /   0  20   0   0
HOBART OK         53  27  55  30 /   0  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  30  56  31 /   0  10   0   0
GAGE OK           49  20  57  27 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     54  29  52  31 /   0  20   0   0
DURANT OK         54  34  55  34 /   0  30  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 051233
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
633 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY LOWER CEILINGS TO NEAR
MVFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AT OKC/OUN/PNC.
A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AT SURFACE...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.  THIS EVENING...WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. MOST MODELS INDICATE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE GFS AND NAM APPEAR A LITTLE
GENEROUS WITH QPF AMOUNTS.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FOR OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THE
WIND WILL BE VERY GUSTY AND STRONG ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ELEVATE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURE NEXT WEEK WILL START AROUND AVERAGE BUT WILL
WARM THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  30  54  32 /   0  20   0   0
HOBART OK         53  27  55  30 /   0  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  30  56  31 /   0  10   0   0
GAGE OK           49  20  57  27 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     54  29  52  31 /   0  20   0   0
DURANT OK         54  34  55  34 /   0  30  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 051233
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
633 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY LOWER CEILINGS TO NEAR
MVFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AT OKC/OUN/PNC.
A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AT SURFACE...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.  THIS EVENING...WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. MOST MODELS INDICATE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE GFS AND NAM APPEAR A LITTLE
GENEROUS WITH QPF AMOUNTS.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FOR OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THE
WIND WILL BE VERY GUSTY AND STRONG ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ELEVATE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURE NEXT WEEK WILL START AROUND AVERAGE BUT WILL
WARM THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  30  54  32 /   0  20   0   0
HOBART OK         53  27  55  30 /   0  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  30  56  31 /   0  10   0   0
GAGE OK           49  20  57  27 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     54  29  52  31 /   0  20   0   0
DURANT OK         54  34  55  34 /   0  30  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 051122
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
522 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CIGS will lower for the latter portion of the TAF period...however VFR
categories for all TAF elements are expected through the entire period.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Dry and mild conditions today ahead of the fast moving wave
currently moving into the Texas Panhandle. This feature will
spread light precipitation into eastern Oklahoma tonight. Limited
low level moisture will hamper measurable precip chances. Low
level temps also look to remain generally too warm for any snow
however a few flakes may be realized given the cold temps aloft.

Saturday will remain dry and mild as the pattern across the CONUS
amplifies with ridging west / troughing east. The upper low
developing into the eastern trough will push a cold front through
the area on Sunday with gusty north winds following. The coldest
air looks to remain well north and east of the forecast
area...while above normal temps remain to our west. The result is
temperatures near to slightly above normal temps through late next
week. Several frontal passages are likely within the prevailing
northwesterly flow aloft...however limited moisture will keep any
frontal passage dry.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 051122
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
522 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CIGS will lower for the latter portion of the TAF period...however VFR
categories for all TAF elements are expected through the entire period.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Dry and mild conditions today ahead of the fast moving wave
currently moving into the Texas Panhandle. This feature will
spread light precipitation into eastern Oklahoma tonight. Limited
low level moisture will hamper measurable precip chances. Low
level temps also look to remain generally too warm for any snow
however a few flakes may be realized given the cold temps aloft.

Saturday will remain dry and mild as the pattern across the CONUS
amplifies with ridging west / troughing east. The upper low
developing into the eastern trough will push a cold front through
the area on Sunday with gusty north winds following. The coldest
air looks to remain well north and east of the forecast
area...while above normal temps remain to our west. The result is
temperatures near to slightly above normal temps through late next
week. Several frontal passages are likely within the prevailing
northwesterly flow aloft...however limited moisture will keep any
frontal passage dry.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 051122
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
522 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CIGS will lower for the latter portion of the TAF period...however VFR
categories for all TAF elements are expected through the entire period.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Dry and mild conditions today ahead of the fast moving wave
currently moving into the Texas Panhandle. This feature will
spread light precipitation into eastern Oklahoma tonight. Limited
low level moisture will hamper measurable precip chances. Low
level temps also look to remain generally too warm for any snow
however a few flakes may be realized given the cold temps aloft.

Saturday will remain dry and mild as the pattern across the CONUS
amplifies with ridging west / troughing east. The upper low
developing into the eastern trough will push a cold front through
the area on Sunday with gusty north winds following. The coldest
air looks to remain well north and east of the forecast
area...while above normal temps remain to our west. The result is
temperatures near to slightly above normal temps through late next
week. Several frontal passages are likely within the prevailing
northwesterly flow aloft...however limited moisture will keep any
frontal passage dry.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 050949
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
349 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Dry and mild conditions today ahead of the fast moving wave
currently moving into the Texas Panhandle. This feature will
spread light precipitation into eastern Oklahoma tonight. Limited
low level moisture will hamper measurable precip chances. Low
level temps also look to remain generally too warm for any snow
however a few flakes may be realized given the cold temps aloft.

Saturday will remain dry and mild as the pattern across the CONUS
amplifies with ridging west / troughing east. The upper low
developing into the eastern trough will push a cold front through
the area on Sunday with gusty north winds following. The coldest
air looks to remain well north and east of the forecast
area...while above normal temps remain to our west. The result is
temperatures near to slightly above normal temps through late next
week. Several frontal passages are likely within the prevailing
northwesterly flow aloft...however limited moisture will keep any
frontal passage dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  31  53  35 /   0  20   0   0
FSM   54  30  54  33 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   54  35  52  34 /   0  20  10   0
BVO   54  27  51  28 /   0  20   0   0
FYV   49  26  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   50  30  50  32 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   53  31  52  32 /   0  20   0   0
MIO   51  31  51  34 /   0  20   0   0
F10   54  33  52  34 /   0  20   0   0
HHW   54  32  53  35 /   0  30  20   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07



000
FXUS64 KTSA 050949
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
349 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Dry and mild conditions today ahead of the fast moving wave
currently moving into the Texas Panhandle. This feature will
spread light precipitation into eastern Oklahoma tonight. Limited
low level moisture will hamper measurable precip chances. Low
level temps also look to remain generally too warm for any snow
however a few flakes may be realized given the cold temps aloft.

Saturday will remain dry and mild as the pattern across the CONUS
amplifies with ridging west / troughing east. The upper low
developing into the eastern trough will push a cold front through
the area on Sunday with gusty north winds following. The coldest
air looks to remain well north and east of the forecast
area...while above normal temps remain to our west. The result is
temperatures near to slightly above normal temps through late next
week. Several frontal passages are likely within the prevailing
northwesterly flow aloft...however limited moisture will keep any
frontal passage dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  31  53  35 /   0  20   0   0
FSM   54  30  54  33 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   54  35  52  34 /   0  20  10   0
BVO   54  27  51  28 /   0  20   0   0
FYV   49  26  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   50  30  50  32 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   53  31  52  32 /   0  20   0   0
MIO   51  31  51  34 /   0  20   0   0
F10   54  33  52  34 /   0  20   0   0
HHW   54  32  53  35 /   0  30  20   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07




000
FXUS64 KOUN 050916
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
316 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AT SURFACE...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.  THIS EVENING...WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. MOST MODELS INDICATE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE GFS AND NAM APPEAR A LITTLE
GENEROUS WITH QPF AMOUNTS.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FOR OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THE
WIND WILL BE VERY GUSTY AND STRONG ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ELEVATE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURE NEXT WEEK WILL START AROUND AVERAGE BUT WILL
WARM THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  30  54  32 /   0  20   0   0
HOBART OK         53  27  55  30 /   0  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  30  56  31 /   0  10   0   0
GAGE OK           49  20  57  27 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     54  29  52  31 /   0  20   0   0
DURANT OK         54  34  55  34 /   0  30  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 050519
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1119 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Temperatures have fallen off rather quickly this evening with
light winds and a dry air-mass in place. Decreased low temperatures
by a few degrees in the Bartlesville/Fayetteville areas, otherwise
forecast on track.  High clouds will begin to increase from
the west overnight and could allow temperatures to warm slightly
towards morning, primarily in Northeast Oklahoma.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05




000
FXUS64 KOUN 050448
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1048 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
05/06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...GUSTY
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NEAR KSPS. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH WIND SHIFT TO NORTH. VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF /VFR/
RAIN POSSIBLE TOMORROW EVENING BUT WILL ONLY MENTION AT KPNC WITH
PROB30 FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  54  30  54 /   0   0  10   0
HOBART OK         29  53  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  58  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           24  49  23  57 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     27  54  27  52 /   0   0  20   0
DURANT OK         30  54  34  55 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 050324
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
924 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures have fallen off rather quickly this evening with
light winds and a dry air-mass in place. Decreased low temperatures
by a few degrees in the Bartlesville/Fayetteville areas, otherwise
forecast on track.  High clouds will begin to increase from
the west overnight and could allow temperatures to warm slightly
towards morning, primarily in Northeast Oklahoma.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 050324
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
924 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures have fallen off rather quickly this evening with
light winds and a dry air-mass in place. Decreased low temperatures
by a few degrees in the Bartlesville/Fayetteville areas, otherwise
forecast on track.  High clouds will begin to increase from
the west overnight and could allow temperatures to warm slightly
towards morning, primarily in Northeast Oklahoma.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 050324
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
924 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures have fallen off rather quickly this evening with
light winds and a dry air-mass in place. Decreased low temperatures
by a few degrees in the Bartlesville/Fayetteville areas, otherwise
forecast on track.  High clouds will begin to increase from
the west overnight and could allow temperatures to warm slightly
towards morning, primarily in Northeast Oklahoma.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12



000
FXUS64 KTSA 042331
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
531 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure continued to slide to the east southeast
across the Southern Plains this afternoon. Underneath high
pressure...mostly sunny skies and westerly winds were common
across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Overnight
tonight...high pressure will push southeast of the CWA in response
to a weak upper level shortwave currently moving east southeast
into the Central Rocky Mountain Region. This will allow for winds
during the night to become more southerly with increasing high
clouds moving into the region ahead of the approaching wave.
Overnight conditions will help to keep low temps a little warmer
compared to last night with low in the mid/upper 20s common.

During the day Friday...breezy south southwesterly winds are
expected across the CWA..which will aid afternoon temperatures to
be a few degrees warmer than today. These conditions could create
some limited areas of fire weather danger for parts of the CWA as
afternoon min relative humidities fall into the low/mid 30 percent
range. The weak upper shortwave is forecast to push southeast
through the region Friday night. Weak warm advection ahead of the
wave could allow for slight chances for a rain shower...though
drier air near the surface could make it hard for any precip to
reach the surface. If there could be enough environmental
cooling...a few light rain showers or even perhaps a snowflake or
two might be possible as temp profiles look to be below freezing
starting around 900-850-mb. Thus...will continue with a very
small pop Friday night into Saturday morning.

Saturday...temps should be a couple degrees cooler with west
northwesterly winds over the CWA...behind the departing upper
shortwave. Southerly winds quickly return Saturday night and
increase Sunday ahead of a cold front forecast to move through the
CWA Sunday afternoon. This front is associated with a closed low
pressure system progged to drop southeast out of Central Canada
into the Great Lakes Region and then over toward the East Coast. A
continued lack of moisture should keep the frontal passage dry for
the CWA Sunday. Breezy southerly winds will help to warm temps a
bit again as well as create some limited areas of fire danger.

In the wake of the frontal boundary...a ridge of high pressure
looks to develop over the West Coast while the closed low and
longwave trof holds over the East Coast. This will direct
northerly flow through the Central United States with cooler
temperatures over the CWA for the first half of next week. A
tighter pressure gradient behind the front will increase northerly
winds over the region for Monday. Wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph
range looks to be possible...which combined with the drier air
over the CWA will increase fire weather dangers again. High to
elevated fire dangers could be possible Monday afternoon.

In the far extended forecast...latest model solutions try to break
down and flatten the ridge late next week...which could bring back
temperatures closer to the seasonal average for the CWA.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05




000
FXUS64 KTSA 042331
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
531 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure continued to slide to the east southeast
across the Southern Plains this afternoon. Underneath high
pressure...mostly sunny skies and westerly winds were common
across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Overnight
tonight...high pressure will push southeast of the CWA in response
to a weak upper level shortwave currently moving east southeast
into the Central Rocky Mountain Region. This will allow for winds
during the night to become more southerly with increasing high
clouds moving into the region ahead of the approaching wave.
Overnight conditions will help to keep low temps a little warmer
compared to last night with low in the mid/upper 20s common.

During the day Friday...breezy south southwesterly winds are
expected across the CWA..which will aid afternoon temperatures to
be a few degrees warmer than today. These conditions could create
some limited areas of fire weather danger for parts of the CWA as
afternoon min relative humidities fall into the low/mid 30 percent
range. The weak upper shortwave is forecast to push southeast
through the region Friday night. Weak warm advection ahead of the
wave could allow for slight chances for a rain shower...though
drier air near the surface could make it hard for any precip to
reach the surface. If there could be enough environmental
cooling...a few light rain showers or even perhaps a snowflake or
two might be possible as temp profiles look to be below freezing
starting around 900-850-mb. Thus...will continue with a very
small pop Friday night into Saturday morning.

Saturday...temps should be a couple degrees cooler with west
northwesterly winds over the CWA...behind the departing upper
shortwave. Southerly winds quickly return Saturday night and
increase Sunday ahead of a cold front forecast to move through the
CWA Sunday afternoon. This front is associated with a closed low
pressure system progged to drop southeast out of Central Canada
into the Great Lakes Region and then over toward the East Coast. A
continued lack of moisture should keep the frontal passage dry for
the CWA Sunday. Breezy southerly winds will help to warm temps a
bit again as well as create some limited areas of fire danger.

In the wake of the frontal boundary...a ridge of high pressure
looks to develop over the West Coast while the closed low and
longwave trof holds over the East Coast. This will direct
northerly flow through the Central United States with cooler
temperatures over the CWA for the first half of next week. A
tighter pressure gradient behind the front will increase northerly
winds over the region for Monday. Wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph
range looks to be possible...which combined with the drier air
over the CWA will increase fire weather dangers again. High to
elevated fire dangers could be possible Monday afternoon.

In the far extended forecast...latest model solutions try to break
down and flatten the ridge late next week...which could bring back
temperatures closer to the seasonal average for the CWA.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05



000
FXUS64 KTSA 042331
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
531 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure continued to slide to the east southeast
across the Southern Plains this afternoon. Underneath high
pressure...mostly sunny skies and westerly winds were common
across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Overnight
tonight...high pressure will push southeast of the CWA in response
to a weak upper level shortwave currently moving east southeast
into the Central Rocky Mountain Region. This will allow for winds
during the night to become more southerly with increasing high
clouds moving into the region ahead of the approaching wave.
Overnight conditions will help to keep low temps a little warmer
compared to last night with low in the mid/upper 20s common.

During the day Friday...breezy south southwesterly winds are
expected across the CWA..which will aid afternoon temperatures to
be a few degrees warmer than today. These conditions could create
some limited areas of fire weather danger for parts of the CWA as
afternoon min relative humidities fall into the low/mid 30 percent
range. The weak upper shortwave is forecast to push southeast
through the region Friday night. Weak warm advection ahead of the
wave could allow for slight chances for a rain shower...though
drier air near the surface could make it hard for any precip to
reach the surface. If there could be enough environmental
cooling...a few light rain showers or even perhaps a snowflake or
two might be possible as temp profiles look to be below freezing
starting around 900-850-mb. Thus...will continue with a very
small pop Friday night into Saturday morning.

Saturday...temps should be a couple degrees cooler with west
northwesterly winds over the CWA...behind the departing upper
shortwave. Southerly winds quickly return Saturday night and
increase Sunday ahead of a cold front forecast to move through the
CWA Sunday afternoon. This front is associated with a closed low
pressure system progged to drop southeast out of Central Canada
into the Great Lakes Region and then over toward the East Coast. A
continued lack of moisture should keep the frontal passage dry for
the CWA Sunday. Breezy southerly winds will help to warm temps a
bit again as well as create some limited areas of fire danger.

In the wake of the frontal boundary...a ridge of high pressure
looks to develop over the West Coast while the closed low and
longwave trof holds over the East Coast. This will direct
northerly flow through the Central United States with cooler
temperatures over the CWA for the first half of next week. A
tighter pressure gradient behind the front will increase northerly
winds over the region for Monday. Wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph
range looks to be possible...which combined with the drier air
over the CWA will increase fire weather dangers again. High to
elevated fire dangers could be possible Monday afternoon.

In the far extended forecast...latest model solutions try to break
down and flatten the ridge late next week...which could bring back
temperatures closer to the seasonal average for the CWA.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05




000
FXUS64 KOUN 042327 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
527 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
05/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
PREVAIL WITH RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. SOME GUSTS 20-25KTS
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND KSPS AFTER 16Z. COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH KWWR/KGAG TOWARD AND AFTER 20Z SHIFTING WINDS TO
NORTHERLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL DIG ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE SHORT
RANGE. MUCH OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET... WITH SEASONABLY NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BOTH SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDINESS INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY. THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS COUPLED WITH LOW RH
VALUES IN THE 30S WILL ALSO ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY.  THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING FROM OUT OF THE WEST... AND WILL
PUSH A SOMEWHAT WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH AS WELL. ALTHOUGH GFS
KEEPS US DRY... THE ECMWF AS WELL AS THE LATEST SHORT RANGE NAM
RUNS BRING IN PREFRONTAL QPF ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA... ALTHOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP POPS AT 20 FOR NOW.
LIGHT COLD RAIN MAY DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA... BUT DISSIPATING BY THE TIME THE FREEZING
AIR BEGINS FILTERING IN. HOWEVER... THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO A FEW SNOW FLAKES
BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE MORNING... SO WILL MAINTAIN A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR THERE. THE 1000-850 MB LAYER
THICKNESS FIELDS KEEPS THE REALLY COLD AIR UP IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS... SO EXPECT TEMPERATES TO REBOUND QUICKLY TO SEASONABLE
FOR SATURDAY.

A SECOND BUT MUCH DEEPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTH WILL DIG THROUGH
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... ALONG WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.  SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LARGER SYSTEM... BUT EXPECTING NO PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING MONDAY MORNING TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE BLENDED
MODEL OUTPUT... SO ADJUSTED THE MIN GRIDS SLIGHTLY COOLER TO
REFLECT THIS. THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
ALSO REMAIN DRY... WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP AND SEASONABLY NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  54  30  54 /   0   0  10   0
HOBART OK         29  53  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  58  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           24  49  23  57 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     27  54  27  52 /   0   0  20   0
DURANT OK         30  54  34  55 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 042132
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
332 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL DIG ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE SHORT
RANGE. MUCH OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET... WITH SEASONABLY NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BOTH SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDINESS INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY. THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS COUPLED WITH LOW RH
VALUES IN THE 30S WILL ALSO ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY.  THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING FROM OUT OF THE WEST... AND WILL
PUSH A SOMEWHAT WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH AS WELL. ALTHOUGH GFS
KEEPS US DRY... THE ECMWF AS WELL AS THE LATEST SHORT RANGE NAM
RUNS BRING IN PREFRONTAL QPF ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA... ALTHOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP POPS AT 20 FOR NOW.
LIGHT COLD RAIN MAY DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA... BUT DISSIPATING BY THE TIME THE FREEZING
AIR BEGINS FILTERING IN. HOWEVER... THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO A FEW SNOW FLAKES
BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE MORNING... SO WILL MAINTAIN A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR THERE. THE 1000-850 MB LAYER
THICKNESS FIELDS KEEPS THE REALLY COLD AIR UP IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS... SO EXPECT TEMPERATES TO REBOUND QUICKLY TO SEASONABLE
FOR SATURDAY.

A SECOND BUT MUCH DEEPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTH WILL DIG THROUGH
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... ALONG WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.  SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LARGER SYSTEM... BUT EXPECTING NO PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING MONDAY MORNING TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE BLENDED
MODEL OUTPUT... SO ADJUSTED THE MIN GRIDS SLIGHTLY COOLER TO
REFLECT THIS. THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
ALSO REMAIN DRY... WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP AND SEASONABLY NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  54  30  54 /   0   0  10   0
HOBART OK         29  53  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  58  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           24  49  23  57 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     27  54  27  52 /   0   0  20   0
DURANT OK         30  54  34  55 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/68




000
FXUS64 KTSA 042122
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
322 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure continued to slide to the east southeast
across the Southern Plains this afternoon. Underneath high
pressure...mostly sunny skies and westerly winds were common
across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Overnight
tonight...high pressure will push southeast of the CWA in response
to a weak upper level shortwave currently moving east southeast
into the Central Rocky Mountain Region. This will allow for winds
during the night to become more southerly with increasing high
clouds moving into the region ahead of the approaching wave.
Overnight conditions will help to keep low temps a little warmer
compared to last night with low in the mid/upper 20s common.

During the day Friday...breezy south southwesterly winds are
expected across the CWA..which will aid afternoon temperatures to
be a few degrees warmer than today. These conditions could create
some limited areas of fire weather danger for parts of the CWA as
afternoon min relative humidities fall into the low/mid 30 percent
range. The weak upper shortwave is forecast to push southeast
through the region Friday night. Weak warm advection ahead of the
wave could allow for slight chances for a rain shower...though
drier air near the surface could make it hard for any precip to
reach the surface. If there could be enough environmental
cooling...a few light rain showers or even perhaps a snowflake or
two might be possible as temp profiles look to be below freezing
starting around 900-850-mb. Thus...will continue with a very
small pop Friday night into Saturday morning.

Saturday...temps should be a couple degrees cooler with west
northwesterly winds over the CWA...behind the departing upper
shortwave. Southerly winds quickly return Saturday night and
increase Sunday ahead of a cold front forecast to move through the
CWA Sunday afternoon. This front is associated with a closed low
pressure system progged to drop southeast out of Central Canada
into the Great Lakes Region and then over toward the East Coast. A
continued lack of moisture should keep the frontal passage dry for
the CWA Sunday. Breezy southerly winds will help to warm temps a
bit again as well as create some limited areas of fire danger.

In the wake of the frontal boundary...a ridge of high pressure
looks to develop over the West Coast while the closed low and
longwave trof holds over the East Coast. This will direct
northerly flow through the Central United States with cooler
temperatures over the CWA for the first half of next week. A
tighter pressure gradient behind the front will increase northerly
winds over the region for Monday. Wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph
range looks to be possible...which combined with the drier air
over the CWA will increase fire weather dangers again. High to
elevated fire dangers could be possible Monday afternoon.

In the far extended forecast...latest model solutions try to break
down and flatten the ridge late next week...which could bring back
temperatures closer to the seasonal average for the CWA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   29  55  33  52 /   0   0  20   0
FSM   26  54  33  53 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   27  55  33  53 /   0   0  20  10
BVO   24  53  29  52 /   0   0  20   0
FYV   24  51  30  49 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   26  51  31  50 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   27  53  33  53 /   0   0  20   0
MIO   25  51  31  50 /   0   0  20   0
F10   28  54  33  52 /   0   0  20   0
HHW   28  54  32  54 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....20




000
FXUS64 KOUN 041801
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1201 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION
WILL BACK THE SFC WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AFTER 00Z... WITH
WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY INCREASING AFTER 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

AVIATION...
0412/0512 TAFS
SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
ADJACENT AREA OF NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING WEST AND SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.  ON FRIDAY...A BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL COMBINE WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TO
SOMEWHAT ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS
SNOW...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MOST AREAS WILL BE CLEAR ON SATURDAY WITH A LIGHT WIND INCREASING BY
AFTERNOON. RATHER DRY AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WILL SLIGHTLY ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A BREEZY/GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AGAIN PROMOTE SOMEWHAT BETTER FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  29  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         50  28  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  28  58  28 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           49  21  49  21 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     49  26  53  27 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         52  29  56  35 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/68/68




000
FXUS64 KTSA 041646
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1046 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. High clouds will
likely increase from the west tomorrow morning as a storm system
moves into the Plains region. Winds will also shift to a more
southerly direction.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
With surface high pressure sitting just south of the region, quiet
weather, featuring near normal high temperatures, light westerly
winds, and sunny skies, will prevail through the day. Morning
soundings support the going forecast high temperatures and other
weather elements are on track. No update planned this morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The 12Z TAF discussion is included below...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
High pressure at the surface will bring VFR conditions thru the
TAF period to all sites. No impacts to aviation are expected.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
High pressure at the surface over the southern plains this morning
has resulted in a clear and cold night. As the high shifts south
and a weak upper wave passes to the north...winds will pick up
some out of the west this afternoon with the resultant downslope
flow leading to temps several degrees warmer for highs today.
Winds will then increase out of the south of Friday ahead of an
approaching wave in NW flow aloft with a few degrees of
additional warming. Moisture will remain limited with this wave
but perhaps just enough lift to result in a few areas of very
light rain. At this point thermal profiles look to preclude much
chance of winter weather. Weak front pushes through Friday night
and knocks a few degrees off temps for Saturday...but above normal
through the weekend.

Pattern amplifies early next week with potential for a more
significant cold front...likely a dry one...bringing a brief
return to below normal temps.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22




000
FXUS64 KTSA 041543
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
943 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
With surface high pressure sitting just south of the region, quiet
weather, featuring near normal high temperatures, light westerly
winds, and sunny skies, will prevail through the day. Morning
soundings support the going forecast high temperatures and other
weather elements are on track. No update planned this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The 12Z TAF discussion is included below...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
High pressure at the surface will bring VFR conditions thru the
TAF period to all sites. No impacts to aviation are expected.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
High pressure at the surface over the southern plains this morning
has resulted in a clear and cold night. As the high shifts south
and a weak upper wave passes to the north...winds will pick up
some out of the west this afternoon with the resultant downslope
flow leading to temps several degrees warmer for highs today.
Winds will then increase out of the south of Friday ahead of an
approaching wave in NW flow aloft with a few degrees of
additional warming. Moisture will remain limited with this wave
but perhaps just enough lift to result in a few areas of very
light rain. At this point thermal profiles look to preclude much
chance of winter weather. Weak front pushes through Friday night
and knocks a few degrees off temps for Saturday...but above normal
through the weekend.

Pattern amplifies early next week with potential for a more
significant cold front...likely a dry one...bringing a brief
return to below normal temps.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22




000
FXUS64 KOUN 041130
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
530 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
0412/0512 TAFS
SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
ADJACENT AREA OF NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING WEST AND SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.  ON FRIDAY...A BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL COMBINE WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TO
SOMEWHAT ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS
SNOW...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MOST AREAS WILL BE CLEAR ON SATURDAY WITH A LIGHT WIND INCREASING BY
AFTERNOON. RATHER DRY AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WILL SLIGHTLY ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A BREEZY/GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AGAIN PROMOTE SOMEWHAT BETTER FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  29  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         50  28  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  28  58  28 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           49  21  49  21 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     49  26  53  27 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         52  29  56  35 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 041049
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
449 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The 12Z TAF discussion is included below...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
High pressure at the surface will bring VFR conditions thru the
TAF period to all sites. No impacts to aviation are expected.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
High pressure at the surface over the southern plains this morning
has resulted in a clear and cold night. As the high shifts south
and a weak upper wave passes to the north...winds will pick up
some out of the west this afternoon with the resultant downslope
flow leading to temps several degrees warmer for highs today.
Winds will then increase out of the south of Friday ahead of an
approaching wave in NW flow aloft with a few degrees of
additional warming. Moisture will remain limited with this wave
but perhaps just enough lift to result in a few areas of very
light rain. At this point thermal profiles look to preclude much
chance of winter weather. Weak front pushes through Friday night
and knocks a few degrees off temps for Saturday...but above normal
through the weekend.

Pattern amplifies early next week with potential for a more
significant cold front...likely a dry one...bringing a brief
return to below normal temps.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   50  30  55  32 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   49  27  55  33 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   50  29  55  33 /   0   0   0  20
BVO   49  24  54  29 /   0   0   0  20
FYV   44  26  51  31 /   0   0   0  20
BYV   44  28  52  32 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   49  29  54  33 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   47  26  52  31 /   0   0   0  20
F10   50  29  55  33 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   52  28  55  32 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 040902
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
302 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
ADJACENT AREA OF NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING WEST AND SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.  ON FRIDAY...A BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL COMBINE WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TO
SOMEWHAT ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS
SNOW...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MOST AREAS WILL BE CLEAR ON SATURDAY WITH A LIGHT WIND INCREASING BY
AFTERNOON. RATHER DRY AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WILL SLIGHTLY ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A BREEZY/GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AGAIN PROMOTE SOMEWHAT BETTER FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  29  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         50  28  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  28  58  28 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           49  21  49  21 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     49  26  53  27 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         52  29  56  35 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 040859
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
259 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure at the surface over the southern plains this morning
has resulted in a clear and cold night. As the high shifts south
and a weak upper wave passes to the north...winds will pick up
some out of the west this afternoon with the resultant downslope
flow leading to temps several degrees warmer for highs today.
Winds will then increase out of the south of Friday ahead of an
approaching wave in NW flow aloft with a few degrees of
additional warming. Moisture will remain limited with this wave
but perhaps just enough lift to result in a few areas of very
light rain. At this point thermal profiles look to preclude much
chance of winter weather. Weak front pushes through Friday night
and knocks a few degrees off temps for Saturday...but above normal
through the weekend.

Pattern amplifies early next week with potential for a more
significant cold front...likely a dry one...bringing a brief
return to below normal temps.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   50  30  55  32 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   49  27  55  33 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   50  29  55  33 /   0   0   0  20
BVO   49  24  54  29 /   0   0   0  20
FYV   44  26  51  31 /   0   0   0  20
BYV   44  28  52  32 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   49  29  54  33 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   47  26  52  31 /   0   0   0  20
F10   50  29  55  33 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   52  28  55  32 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....14




000
FXUS64 KTSA 040517
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1117 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A few minor tweaks to hourly temp/dew-points given latest trends.
Otherwise, current forecast on track with no other significant
changes in the short term. Surface ridge will settle over the
region tonight with light and variable winds by Thursday morning.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05



000
FXUS64 KTSA 040517
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1117 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A few minor tweaks to hourly temp/dew-points given latest trends.
Otherwise, current forecast on track with no other significant
changes in the short term. Surface ridge will settle over the
region tonight with light and variable winds by Thursday morning.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05




000
FXUS64 KOUN 040344 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
944 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
LOWERED MINS FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS...LIGHT WIND...AND CLEAR
SKIES...WE WILL LOWER MINS A FEW DEGREES ALL LOCATIONS. SEVERAL
DEGREES ACROSS NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  23  51  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         23  51  29  53 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  24  54  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           15  49  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     21  50  28  54 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         26  52  32  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/26




000
FXUS64 KTSA 040339
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
939 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A few minor tweaks to hourly temp/dew-points given latest trends.
Otherwise, current forecast on track with no other significant
changes in the short term. Surface ridge will settle over the
region tonight with light and variable winds by Thursday morning.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 040339
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
939 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A few minor tweaks to hourly temp/dew-points given latest trends.
Otherwise, current forecast on track with no other significant
changes in the short term. Surface ridge will settle over the
region tonight with light and variable winds by Thursday morning.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12



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