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000
FXUS64 KTSA 242102
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
402 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OK WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NE...WHILE SMALL SCALE MCV OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX TRAILS WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF BOTH FEATURES. A
NOTICEABLE DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING ACROSS AS THE FORCING PASSES...WITH THE DRYING TREND
SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BULK OF
STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS AND POINTS
EASTWARD...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE SWATHS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
FURTHER WEST...RAINFALL RATES REMAIN STRONG BENEATH THE STRONGER
SHOWERS HOWEVER ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
UNLIKELY. DESPITE THE LESSER PRECIP TOTALS...CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT RAPID ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING AND ADDITIONAL WARNINGS
MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION
WANES...AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE
STANDING WATER AND ONGOING FLOOD CONCERNS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY MONDAY.

A COMPACT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN TX DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD AND STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN ITS ADVANCE.
THIS EVENTUAL COMPLEX WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS LIKELY PASSING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OK AND INTO WESTERN AR. THIS WILL FURTHER WORSEN THE
FLOOD CONDITIONS AND PORTIONS OF THE WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED ACROSS
THIS REGION.

BEYOND MONDAY THE FORECAST BECOMES MUDDLED WITH A WEAK SFC FRONT
LIKELY MOVING INTO NE OK WHILE FORCING ALOFT REMAINS WEAK. THIS IS
LIKELY TO REDUCE THE COVERAGE ANY PRECIP THOUGH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THOUGH DETAILS WILL HAVE TO AWAIT LATER
FORECASTS. BY LATE WEEK MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS WITH A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY IN PROXIMITY. THIS
WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMTS SHOULD
BE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  81  63  81 /  30  30  40  20
FSM   65  81  64  82 /  70  50  70  30
MLC   65  78  63  81 /  30  50  50  20
BVO   59  81  60  81 /  40  20  30  20
FYV   61  78  62  78 /  70  30  70  30
BYV   62  80  63  79 /  80  20  90  30
MKO   61  79  62  81 /  50  40  50  20
MIO   60  80  62  80 /  60  30  60  20
F10   62  79  62  80 /  30  40  50  20
HHW   66  78  64  82 /  40  80  60  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 242102
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
402 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OK WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NE...WHILE SMALL SCALE MCV OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX TRAILS WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF BOTH FEATURES. A
NOTICEABLE DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING ACROSS AS THE FORCING PASSES...WITH THE DRYING TREND
SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BULK OF
STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS AND POINTS
EASTWARD...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE SWATHS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
FURTHER WEST...RAINFALL RATES REMAIN STRONG BENEATH THE STRONGER
SHOWERS HOWEVER ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
UNLIKELY. DESPITE THE LESSER PRECIP TOTALS...CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT RAPID ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING AND ADDITIONAL WARNINGS
MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION
WANES...AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE
STANDING WATER AND ONGOING FLOOD CONCERNS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY MONDAY.

A COMPACT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN TX DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD AND STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN ITS ADVANCE.
THIS EVENTUAL COMPLEX WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS LIKELY PASSING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OK AND INTO WESTERN AR. THIS WILL FURTHER WORSEN THE
FLOOD CONDITIONS AND PORTIONS OF THE WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED ACROSS
THIS REGION.

BEYOND MONDAY THE FORECAST BECOMES MUDDLED WITH A WEAK SFC FRONT
LIKELY MOVING INTO NE OK WHILE FORCING ALOFT REMAINS WEAK. THIS IS
LIKELY TO REDUCE THE COVERAGE ANY PRECIP THOUGH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THOUGH DETAILS WILL HAVE TO AWAIT LATER
FORECASTS. BY LATE WEEK MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS WITH A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY IN PROXIMITY. THIS
WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMTS SHOULD
BE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  81  63  81 /  30  30  40  20
FSM   65  81  64  82 /  70  50  70  30
MLC   65  78  63  81 /  30  50  50  20
BVO   59  81  60  81 /  40  20  30  20
FYV   61  78  62  78 /  70  30  70  30
BYV   62  80  63  79 /  80  20  90  30
MKO   61  79  62  81 /  50  40  50  20
MIO   60  80  62  80 /  60  30  60  20
F10   62  79  62  80 /  30  40  50  20
HHW   66  78  64  82 /  40  80  60  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....07




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOUN 241955
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
255 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME BANDS OF RAIN AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WITH TROPICAL
AIRMASS IN PLACE WE ARE RECEIVING HIGHER RAINFALL RATES THAN WOULD
OTHERWISE BE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS TYPE OF ACTIVITY. WILL
THEREFORE KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR CURRENT AREA THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY MORNING.

THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TODAY... WOULD BE MAINLY A HAIL
THREAT ALONG WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN.

ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY
AFTN WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER MUCH OF
THE MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER.

WITH MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONT TO SEE MINOR RIPPLES MOVE
THROUGH PORVIDING AT LEAST SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MORE
SUBSTANTIAL STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  79  61  81 /  20  40  30  20
HOBART OK         60  78  57  82 /  20  40  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  79  60  85 /  20  50  20  20
GAGE OK           57  80  54  80 /  20  20  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     60  81  59  80 /  20  20  30  20
DURANT OK         65  78  63  83 /  30  70  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ008-012-013-
     016>020-022>032-035-038>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ090.

&&

$$

26/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 241955
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
255 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME BANDS OF RAIN AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WITH TROPICAL
AIRMASS IN PLACE WE ARE RECEIVING HIGHER RAINFALL RATES THAN WOULD
OTHERWISE BE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS TYPE OF ACTIVITY. WILL
THEREFORE KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR CURRENT AREA THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY MORNING.

THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TODAY... WOULD BE MAINLY A HAIL
THREAT ALONG WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN.

ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY
AFTN WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER MUCH OF
THE MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER.

WITH MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONT TO SEE MINOR RIPPLES MOVE
THROUGH PORVIDING AT LEAST SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MORE
SUBSTANTIAL STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  79  61  81 /  20  40  30  20
HOBART OK         60  78  57  82 /  20  40  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  79  60  85 /  20  50  20  20
GAGE OK           57  80  54  80 /  20  20  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     60  81  59  80 /  20  20  30  20
DURANT OK         65  78  63  83 /  30  70  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ008-012-013-
     016>020-022>032-035-038>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ090.

&&

$$

26/30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 241758 AAA
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1258 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. VFR FLIGHT
CEILING CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN WITH AREAS OF MVFR WITH RAIN AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO TONIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND LIFT NORTHWARD. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN. TONIGHT THE STORMS
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST. OVERALL VFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF MVFR
IN SPOTS. WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
TO 20 MPH.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE AGAIN...FLOOD POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY HIGH...WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ONLY WORSENING CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

FLOOD OF THE DECADE...AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TODAY. 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS ALREADY
COMMON...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF FIVE
INCHES TULSA OKMULGEE CREEK COUNTIES.

ANOTHER..1.5 TO 2 INCHES COMMON TODAY INTO TONIGHT
EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  SOME LOCATIONS
COULD REACH  FIVE INCHES  ONCE AGAIN  GIVEN REPEAT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS TWIN MCVS IN TEXAS
AT THIS TIME.  STRONGER..MORE NORTHWEST MCV SOUTH
OF BRYAN COUNTY OK SPINNING NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS
MOVEMENT COUPLED WITH 1.7-1.9 PWA ENSURES ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP  AND  WILL PUSH PRECIP BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME TODAY.

DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

RAIN WILL WIND DOWN TONIGHT..WHILE MANY MAIN STEM
RIVERS OVERFLOW.

UNFORTUNATELY. NEXT WAVE  ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.  BULK OF PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OK
AND WEST CENTRAL / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORE FLOOD
POTENTIAL THERE.

WET PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
GWILEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  63  81  61 / 100  30  40  60
FSM   75  66  81  65 / 100  70  40 100
MLC   72  67  78  62 / 100  30  60  80
BVO   70  59  81  60 / 100  40  30  40
FYV   71  63  78  61 / 100  70  30 100
BYV   72  63  78  62 / 100  80  30  80
MKO   72  64  78  62 / 100  50  40  90
MIO   72  62  79  62 / 100  60  20  50
F10   70  63  78  61 / 100  30  30  70
HHW   73  67  78  66 / 100  40  80  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

LZK/59






000
FXUS64 KTSA 241758 AAA
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1258 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. VFR FLIGHT
CEILING CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN WITH AREAS OF MVFR WITH RAIN AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO TONIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND LIFT NORTHWARD. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN. TONIGHT THE STORMS
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST. OVERALL VFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF MVFR
IN SPOTS. WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
TO 20 MPH.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE AGAIN...FLOOD POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY HIGH...WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ONLY WORSENING CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

FLOOD OF THE DECADE...AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TODAY. 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS ALREADY
COMMON...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF FIVE
INCHES TULSA OKMULGEE CREEK COUNTIES.

ANOTHER..1.5 TO 2 INCHES COMMON TODAY INTO TONIGHT
EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  SOME LOCATIONS
COULD REACH  FIVE INCHES  ONCE AGAIN  GIVEN REPEAT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS TWIN MCVS IN TEXAS
AT THIS TIME.  STRONGER..MORE NORTHWEST MCV SOUTH
OF BRYAN COUNTY OK SPINNING NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS
MOVEMENT COUPLED WITH 1.7-1.9 PWA ENSURES ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP  AND  WILL PUSH PRECIP BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME TODAY.

DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

RAIN WILL WIND DOWN TONIGHT..WHILE MANY MAIN STEM
RIVERS OVERFLOW.

UNFORTUNATELY. NEXT WAVE  ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.  BULK OF PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OK
AND WEST CENTRAL / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORE FLOOD
POTENTIAL THERE.

WET PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
GWILEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  63  81  61 / 100  30  40  60
FSM   75  66  81  65 / 100  70  40 100
MLC   72  67  78  62 / 100  30  60  80
BVO   70  59  81  60 / 100  40  30  40
FYV   71  63  78  61 / 100  70  30 100
BYV   72  63  78  62 / 100  80  30  80
MKO   72  64  78  62 / 100  50  40  90
MIO   72  62  79  62 / 100  60  20  50
F10   70  63  78  61 / 100  30  30  70
HHW   73  67  78  66 / 100  40  80  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

LZK/59





000
FXUS64 KTSA 241758 AAA
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1258 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. VFR FLIGHT
CEILING CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN WITH AREAS OF MVFR WITH RAIN AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO TONIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND LIFT NORTHWARD. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN. TONIGHT THE STORMS
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST. OVERALL VFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF MVFR
IN SPOTS. WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
TO 20 MPH.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE AGAIN...FLOOD POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY HIGH...WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ONLY WORSENING CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

FLOOD OF THE DECADE...AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TODAY. 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS ALREADY
COMMON...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF FIVE
INCHES TULSA OKMULGEE CREEK COUNTIES.

ANOTHER..1.5 TO 2 INCHES COMMON TODAY INTO TONIGHT
EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  SOME LOCATIONS
COULD REACH  FIVE INCHES  ONCE AGAIN  GIVEN REPEAT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS TWIN MCVS IN TEXAS
AT THIS TIME.  STRONGER..MORE NORTHWEST MCV SOUTH
OF BRYAN COUNTY OK SPINNING NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS
MOVEMENT COUPLED WITH 1.7-1.9 PWA ENSURES ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP  AND  WILL PUSH PRECIP BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME TODAY.

DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

RAIN WILL WIND DOWN TONIGHT..WHILE MANY MAIN STEM
RIVERS OVERFLOW.

UNFORTUNATELY. NEXT WAVE  ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.  BULK OF PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OK
AND WEST CENTRAL / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORE FLOOD
POTENTIAL THERE.

WET PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
GWILEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  63  81  61 / 100  30  40  60
FSM   75  66  81  65 / 100  70  40 100
MLC   72  67  78  62 / 100  30  60  80
BVO   70  59  81  60 / 100  40  30  40
FYV   71  63  78  61 / 100  70  30 100
BYV   72  63  78  62 / 100  80  30  80
MKO   72  64  78  62 / 100  50  40  90
MIO   72  62  79  62 / 100  60  20  50
F10   70  63  78  61 / 100  30  30  70
HHW   73  67  78  66 / 100  40  80  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

LZK/59





000
FXUS64 KTSA 241559 AAA
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1059 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE AGAIN...FLOOD POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY HIGH...WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ONLY WORSENING CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

FLOOD OF THE DECADE...AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TODAY. 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS ALREADY
COMMON...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF FIVE
INCHES TULSA OKMULGEE CREEK COUNTIES.

ANOTHER..1.5 TO 2 INCHES COMMON TODAY INTO TONIGHT
EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  SOME LOCATIONS
COULD REACH  FIVE INCHES  ONCE AGAIN  GIVEN REPEAT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS TWIN MCVS IN TEXAS
AT THIS TIME.  STRONGER..MORE NORTHWEST MCV SOUTH
OF BRYAN COUNTY OK SPINNING NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS
MOVEMENT COUPLED WITH 1.7-1.9 PWA ENSURES ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP  AND  WILL PUSH PRECIP BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME TODAY.

DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

RAIN WILL WIND DOWN TONIGHT..WHILE MANY MAIN STEM
RIVERS OVERFLOW.

UNFORTUNATELY. NEXT WAVE  ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.  BULK OF PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OK
AND WEST CENTRAL / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORE FLOOD
POTENTIAL THERE.

WET PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
GWILEY
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  63  81  61 / 100  30  40  60
FSM   75  66  81  65 / 100  70  40 100
MLC   72  67  78  62 / 100  30  60  80
BVO   70  59  81  60 / 100  40  30  40
FYV   71  63  78  61 / 100  70  30 100
BYV   72  63  78  62 / 100  80  30  80
MKO   72  64  78  62 / 100  50  40  90
MIO   72  62  79  62 / 100  60  20  50
F10   70  63  78  61 / 100  30  30  70
HHW   73  67  78  66 / 100  40  80  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LZK/58





000
FXUS64 KTSA 241559 AAA
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1059 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE AGAIN...FLOOD POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY HIGH...WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ONLY WORSENING CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

FLOOD OF THE DECADE...AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TODAY. 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS ALREADY
COMMON...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF FIVE
INCHES TULSA OKMULGEE CREEK COUNTIES.

ANOTHER..1.5 TO 2 INCHES COMMON TODAY INTO TONIGHT
EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  SOME LOCATIONS
COULD REACH  FIVE INCHES  ONCE AGAIN  GIVEN REPEAT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS TWIN MCVS IN TEXAS
AT THIS TIME.  STRONGER..MORE NORTHWEST MCV SOUTH
OF BRYAN COUNTY OK SPINNING NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS
MOVEMENT COUPLED WITH 1.7-1.9 PWA ENSURES ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP  AND  WILL PUSH PRECIP BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME TODAY.

DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

RAIN WILL WIND DOWN TONIGHT..WHILE MANY MAIN STEM
RIVERS OVERFLOW.

UNFORTUNATELY. NEXT WAVE  ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.  BULK OF PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OK
AND WEST CENTRAL / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORE FLOOD
POTENTIAL THERE.

WET PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
GWILEY
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  63  81  61 / 100  30  40  60
FSM   75  66  81  65 / 100  70  40 100
MLC   72  67  78  62 / 100  30  60  80
BVO   70  59  81  60 / 100  40  30  40
FYV   71  63  78  61 / 100  70  30 100
BYV   72  63  78  62 / 100  80  30  80
MKO   72  64  78  62 / 100  50  40  90
MIO   72  62  79  62 / 100  60  20  50
F10   70  63  78  61 / 100  30  30  70
HHW   73  67  78  66 / 100  40  80  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LZK/58






000
FXUS64 KOUN 241151
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
651 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

PATCHES OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
21Z. WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS APPEARS TO HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 21Z.

ADDITIONAL MVFR OR PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FORM AT
SITES AFTER 06Z.

ISO-SCT TSRA MAY FORM ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE PLACEMENT...LOCATION...AND TIMING OF TSRA.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM... TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

FLOODING IS THE MAIN CONCERN.

CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WEST OF A HENRIETTA TEXAS TO
PURCELL TO CHANDLER LINE WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE EAST OF THIS
LINE WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGEST.

TODAY...THINK THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED EAST. THESE LOCATIONS IN THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH EAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE MAY GET ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL. WEST OF THE LINE ABOVE INCLUDING OKLAHOMA
CITY...WICHITA FALLS...AND LAWTON...THINK THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED
TODAY AND LOWERED RAIN CHANCES ACCORDINGLY. MOST MODELS HAVE
MISHANDLED THE AMOUNT OF COOL AND STABLE AIR THAT CURRENTLY EXISTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WENT BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE HIGHS DUE TO
COOL STABLE AIR AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING...THINK POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW. WILL MONITOR A MCV AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK
TORNADO SPINNUP OR TWO NEAR DURANT AND ATOKA THROUGH 8 AM THIS
MORNING. OVERALL...THE AIR SEEMS TO BE TOO STABLE FOR SEVERE FOR
MUCH OF TODAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE DESTABLIZATION OCCURS
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS IF A MID/UPPER DRYSLOT MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WOULD
POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS TO OCCUR. OVERALL...THINK COOL LOW LEVEL AIR AND
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY AT HIGH LEVELS...WILL KEEP
SEVERE POTENTIAL QUITE LOW.

TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY DUE TO WEAK SUBSIDENCE.
WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED IF SOME FOG FORMED...BUT DID NOT MENTION
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

ON MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING...AND SEVERE
STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND MAY OCCUR. THE AIR WILL BE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE. FOR NOW...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
TIME FRAME...BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW STORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE AS THE AIR REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE...THOUGH COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE. ANY STORM MAY MOVE SLOWLY...BE STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH HAIL AND WIND...AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MBS

LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER... DID
NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECEDING FORECAST. LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE SOME DECENT SYNOPTIC CONSISTENCY.
DEVIL IN THE DETAILS WILL BE THE SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIDING
THE WEAK RIDGE OVER THE SRN U.S. WED-FRI AHEAD OF ANOTHER ADVANCING
WRN TROUGH. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY... BUT GIVEN CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE... IT`S DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCES. FOR FRIDAY... SCENARIO
GETS A SKOSH CLEARER... WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF GRABBING A HOLD
OF A MORE DEFINITE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT DECENT MOISTURE RETURN
THROUGH THE LL ON THU AHEAD OF THIS WAVE... SO FELT CONFIDENT TO UP
POPS TO CHANCE AND LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS... REMAINING A FOCUS FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGER TROUGH BROADENS AND SHIFTS E/NE
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  64  79  64 /  50  20  30  30
HOBART OK         75  60  80  61 /  30  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  65  80  64 /  50  20  40  30
GAGE OK           76  58  81  58 /  30  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     73  63  80  64 /  40  20  20  20
DURANT OK         74  66  78  64 /  90  30  50  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ026-030>032-
     040>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ090.

&&

$$

23/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241151
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
651 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

PATCHES OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
21Z. WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS APPEARS TO HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 21Z.

ADDITIONAL MVFR OR PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FORM AT
SITES AFTER 06Z.

ISO-SCT TSRA MAY FORM ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE PLACEMENT...LOCATION...AND TIMING OF TSRA.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM... TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

FLOODING IS THE MAIN CONCERN.

CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WEST OF A HENRIETTA TEXAS TO
PURCELL TO CHANDLER LINE WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE EAST OF THIS
LINE WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGEST.

TODAY...THINK THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED EAST. THESE LOCATIONS IN THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH EAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE MAY GET ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL. WEST OF THE LINE ABOVE INCLUDING OKLAHOMA
CITY...WICHITA FALLS...AND LAWTON...THINK THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED
TODAY AND LOWERED RAIN CHANCES ACCORDINGLY. MOST MODELS HAVE
MISHANDLED THE AMOUNT OF COOL AND STABLE AIR THAT CURRENTLY EXISTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WENT BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE HIGHS DUE TO
COOL STABLE AIR AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING...THINK POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW. WILL MONITOR A MCV AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK
TORNADO SPINNUP OR TWO NEAR DURANT AND ATOKA THROUGH 8 AM THIS
MORNING. OVERALL...THE AIR SEEMS TO BE TOO STABLE FOR SEVERE FOR
MUCH OF TODAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE DESTABLIZATION OCCURS
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS IF A MID/UPPER DRYSLOT MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WOULD
POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS TO OCCUR. OVERALL...THINK COOL LOW LEVEL AIR AND
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY AT HIGH LEVELS...WILL KEEP
SEVERE POTENTIAL QUITE LOW.

TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY DUE TO WEAK SUBSIDENCE.
WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED IF SOME FOG FORMED...BUT DID NOT MENTION
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

ON MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING...AND SEVERE
STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND MAY OCCUR. THE AIR WILL BE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE. FOR NOW...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
TIME FRAME...BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW STORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE AS THE AIR REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE...THOUGH COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE. ANY STORM MAY MOVE SLOWLY...BE STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH HAIL AND WIND...AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MBS

LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER... DID
NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECEDING FORECAST. LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE SOME DECENT SYNOPTIC CONSISTENCY.
DEVIL IN THE DETAILS WILL BE THE SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIDING
THE WEAK RIDGE OVER THE SRN U.S. WED-FRI AHEAD OF ANOTHER ADVANCING
WRN TROUGH. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY... BUT GIVEN CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE... IT`S DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCES. FOR FRIDAY... SCENARIO
GETS A SKOSH CLEARER... WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF GRABBING A HOLD
OF A MORE DEFINITE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT DECENT MOISTURE RETURN
THROUGH THE LL ON THU AHEAD OF THIS WAVE... SO FELT CONFIDENT TO UP
POPS TO CHANCE AND LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS... REMAINING A FOCUS FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGER TROUGH BROADENS AND SHIFTS E/NE
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  64  79  64 /  50  20  30  30
HOBART OK         75  60  80  61 /  30  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  65  80  64 /  50  20  40  30
GAGE OK           76  58  81  58 /  30  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     73  63  80  64 /  40  20  20  20
DURANT OK         74  66  78  64 /  90  30  50  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ026-030>032-
     040>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ090.

&&

$$

23/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241151
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
651 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

PATCHES OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
21Z. WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS APPEARS TO HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 21Z.

ADDITIONAL MVFR OR PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FORM AT
SITES AFTER 06Z.

ISO-SCT TSRA MAY FORM ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE PLACEMENT...LOCATION...AND TIMING OF TSRA.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM... TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

FLOODING IS THE MAIN CONCERN.

CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WEST OF A HENRIETTA TEXAS TO
PURCELL TO CHANDLER LINE WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE EAST OF THIS
LINE WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGEST.

TODAY...THINK THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED EAST. THESE LOCATIONS IN THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH EAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE MAY GET ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL. WEST OF THE LINE ABOVE INCLUDING OKLAHOMA
CITY...WICHITA FALLS...AND LAWTON...THINK THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED
TODAY AND LOWERED RAIN CHANCES ACCORDINGLY. MOST MODELS HAVE
MISHANDLED THE AMOUNT OF COOL AND STABLE AIR THAT CURRENTLY EXISTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WENT BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE HIGHS DUE TO
COOL STABLE AIR AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING...THINK POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW. WILL MONITOR A MCV AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK
TORNADO SPINNUP OR TWO NEAR DURANT AND ATOKA THROUGH 8 AM THIS
MORNING. OVERALL...THE AIR SEEMS TO BE TOO STABLE FOR SEVERE FOR
MUCH OF TODAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE DESTABLIZATION OCCURS
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS IF A MID/UPPER DRYSLOT MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WOULD
POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS TO OCCUR. OVERALL...THINK COOL LOW LEVEL AIR AND
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY AT HIGH LEVELS...WILL KEEP
SEVERE POTENTIAL QUITE LOW.

TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY DUE TO WEAK SUBSIDENCE.
WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED IF SOME FOG FORMED...BUT DID NOT MENTION
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

ON MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING...AND SEVERE
STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND MAY OCCUR. THE AIR WILL BE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE. FOR NOW...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
TIME FRAME...BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW STORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE AS THE AIR REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE...THOUGH COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE. ANY STORM MAY MOVE SLOWLY...BE STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH HAIL AND WIND...AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MBS

LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER... DID
NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECEDING FORECAST. LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE SOME DECENT SYNOPTIC CONSISTENCY.
DEVIL IN THE DETAILS WILL BE THE SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIDING
THE WEAK RIDGE OVER THE SRN U.S. WED-FRI AHEAD OF ANOTHER ADVANCING
WRN TROUGH. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY... BUT GIVEN CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE... IT`S DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCES. FOR FRIDAY... SCENARIO
GETS A SKOSH CLEARER... WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF GRABBING A HOLD
OF A MORE DEFINITE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT DECENT MOISTURE RETURN
THROUGH THE LL ON THU AHEAD OF THIS WAVE... SO FELT CONFIDENT TO UP
POPS TO CHANCE AND LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS... REMAINING A FOCUS FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGER TROUGH BROADENS AND SHIFTS E/NE
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  64  79  64 /  50  20  30  30
HOBART OK         75  60  80  61 /  30  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  65  80  64 /  50  20  40  30
GAGE OK           76  58  81  58 /  30  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     73  63  80  64 /  40  20  20  20
DURANT OK         74  66  78  64 /  90  30  50  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ026-030>032-
     040>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ090.

&&

$$

23/17/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 240933
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
433 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

FLOOD OF THE DECADE...AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TODAY. 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS ALREADY
COMMON...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF FIVE
INCHES TULSA OKMULGEE CREEK COUNTIES.

ANOTHER..1.5 TO 2 INCHES COMMON TODAY INTO TONIGHT
EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  SOME LOCATIONS
COULD REACH  FIVE INCHES  ONCE AGAIN  GIVEN REPEAT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS TWIN MCVS IN TEXAS
AT THIS TIME.  STRONGER..MORE NORTHWEST MCV SOUTH
OF BRYAN COUNTY OK SPINNING NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS
MOVEMENT COUPLED WITH 1.7-1.9 PWA ENSURES ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP  AND  WILL PUSH PRECIP BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME TODAY.

DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

RAIN WILL WIND DOWN TONIGHT..WHILE MANY MAIN STEM
RIVERS OVERFLOW.

UNFORTUNATELY. NEXT WAVE  ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.  BULK OF PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OK
AND WEST CENTRAL / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORE FLOOD
POTENTIAL THERE.

WET PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
GWILEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  63  81  61 / 100  30  40  60
FSM   75  66  81  65 / 100  70  40 100
MLC   72  67  78  62 / 100  30  60  80
BVO   70  59  81  60 / 100  40  30  40
FYV   71  63  78  61 / 100  70  30 100
BYV   72  63  78  62 / 100  80  30  80
MKO   72  64  78  62 / 100  50  40  90
MIO   72  62  79  62 / 100  60  20  50
F10   70  63  78  61 / 100  30  30  70
HHW   73  67  78  66 / 100  40  80  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21





000
FXUS64 KTSA 240933
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
433 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

FLOOD OF THE DECADE...AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TODAY. 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS ALREADY
COMMON...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF FIVE
INCHES TULSA OKMULGEE CREEK COUNTIES.

ANOTHER..1.5 TO 2 INCHES COMMON TODAY INTO TONIGHT
EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  SOME LOCATIONS
COULD REACH  FIVE INCHES  ONCE AGAIN  GIVEN REPEAT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS TWIN MCVS IN TEXAS
AT THIS TIME.  STRONGER..MORE NORTHWEST MCV SOUTH
OF BRYAN COUNTY OK SPINNING NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS
MOVEMENT COUPLED WITH 1.7-1.9 PWA ENSURES ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP  AND  WILL PUSH PRECIP BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME TODAY.

DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

RAIN WILL WIND DOWN TONIGHT..WHILE MANY MAIN STEM
RIVERS OVERFLOW.

UNFORTUNATELY. NEXT WAVE  ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.  BULK OF PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OK
AND WEST CENTRAL / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORE FLOOD
POTENTIAL THERE.

WET PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
GWILEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  63  81  61 / 100  30  40  60
FSM   75  66  81  65 / 100  70  40 100
MLC   72  67  78  62 / 100  30  60  80
BVO   70  59  81  60 / 100  40  30  40
FYV   71  63  78  61 / 100  70  30 100
BYV   72  63  78  62 / 100  80  30  80
MKO   72  64  78  62 / 100  50  40  90
MIO   72  62  79  62 / 100  60  20  50
F10   70  63  78  61 / 100  30  30  70
HHW   73  67  78  66 / 100  40  80  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21





000
FXUS64 KTSA 240933
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
433 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

FLOOD OF THE DECADE...AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TODAY. 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS ALREADY
COMMON...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF FIVE
INCHES TULSA OKMULGEE CREEK COUNTIES.

ANOTHER..1.5 TO 2 INCHES COMMON TODAY INTO TONIGHT
EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  SOME LOCATIONS
COULD REACH  FIVE INCHES  ONCE AGAIN  GIVEN REPEAT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS TWIN MCVS IN TEXAS
AT THIS TIME.  STRONGER..MORE NORTHWEST MCV SOUTH
OF BRYAN COUNTY OK SPINNING NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS
MOVEMENT COUPLED WITH 1.7-1.9 PWA ENSURES ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP  AND  WILL PUSH PRECIP BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME TODAY.

DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

RAIN WILL WIND DOWN TONIGHT..WHILE MANY MAIN STEM
RIVERS OVERFLOW.

UNFORTUNATELY. NEXT WAVE  ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.  BULK OF PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OK
AND WEST CENTRAL / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORE FLOOD
POTENTIAL THERE.

WET PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
GWILEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  63  81  61 / 100  30  40  60
FSM   75  66  81  65 / 100  70  40 100
MLC   72  67  78  62 / 100  30  60  80
BVO   70  59  81  60 / 100  40  30  40
FYV   71  63  78  61 / 100  70  30 100
BYV   72  63  78  62 / 100  80  30  80
MKO   72  64  78  62 / 100  50  40  90
MIO   72  62  79  62 / 100  60  20  50
F10   70  63  78  61 / 100  30  30  70
HHW   73  67  78  66 / 100  40  80  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21





000
FXUS64 KTSA 240933
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
433 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

FLOOD OF THE DECADE...AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TODAY. 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS ALREADY
COMMON...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF FIVE
INCHES TULSA OKMULGEE CREEK COUNTIES.

ANOTHER..1.5 TO 2 INCHES COMMON TODAY INTO TONIGHT
EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  SOME LOCATIONS
COULD REACH  FIVE INCHES  ONCE AGAIN  GIVEN REPEAT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS TWIN MCVS IN TEXAS
AT THIS TIME.  STRONGER..MORE NORTHWEST MCV SOUTH
OF BRYAN COUNTY OK SPINNING NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS
MOVEMENT COUPLED WITH 1.7-1.9 PWA ENSURES ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP  AND  WILL PUSH PRECIP BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME TODAY.

DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

RAIN WILL WIND DOWN TONIGHT..WHILE MANY MAIN STEM
RIVERS OVERFLOW.

UNFORTUNATELY. NEXT WAVE  ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.  BULK OF PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OK
AND WEST CENTRAL / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORE FLOOD
POTENTIAL THERE.

WET PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
GWILEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  63  81  61 / 100  30  40  60
FSM   75  66  81  65 / 100  70  40 100
MLC   72  67  78  62 / 100  30  60  80
BVO   70  59  81  60 / 100  40  30  40
FYV   71  63  78  61 / 100  70  30 100
BYV   72  63  78  62 / 100  80  30  80
MKO   72  64  78  62 / 100  50  40  90
MIO   72  62  79  62 / 100  60  20  50
F10   70  63  78  61 / 100  30  30  70
HHW   73  67  78  66 / 100  40  80  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21





000
FXUS64 KOUN 240850
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
350 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM... TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

FLOODING IS THE MAIN CONCERN.

CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WEST OF A HENRIETTA TEXAS TO
PURCELL TO CHANDLER LINE WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE EAST OF THIS
LINE WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGEST.

TODAY...THINK THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED EAST. THESE LOCATIONS IN THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH EAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE MAY GET ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL. WEST OF THE LINE ABOVE INCLUDING OKLAHOMA
CITY...WICHITA FALLS...AND LAWTON...THINK THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED
TODAY AND LOWERED RAIN CHANCES ACCORDINGLY. MOST MODELS HAVE
MISHANDLED THE AMOUNT OF COOL AND STABLE AIR THAT CURRENTLY EXISTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WENT BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE HIGHS DUE TO
COOL STABLE AIR AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING...THINK POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW. WILL MONITOR A MCV AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK
TORNADO SPINNUP OR TWO NEAR DURANT AND ATOKA THROUGH 8 AM THIS
MORNING. OVERALL...THE AIR SEEMS TO BE TOO STABLE FOR SEVERE FOR
MUCH OF TODAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE DESTABLIZATION OCCURS
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS IF A MID/UPPER DRYSLOT MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WOULD
POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS TO OCCUR. OVERALL...THINK COOL LOW LEVEL AIR AND
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY AT HIGH LEVELS...WILL KEEP
SEVERE POTENTIAL QUITE LOW.

TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY DUE TO WEAK SUBSIDENCE.
WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED IF SOME FOG FORMED...BUT DID NOT MENTION
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

ON MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING...AND SEVERE
STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND MAY OCCUR. THE AIR WILL BE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE. FOR NOW...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
TIME FRAME...BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW STORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE AS THE AIR REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE...THOUGH COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE. ANY STORM MAY MOVE SLOWLY...BE STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH HAIL AND WIND...AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MBS

.LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER... DID
NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECEDING FORECAST. LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE SOME DECENT SYNOPTIC CONSISTENCY.
DEVIL IN THE DETAILS WILL BE THE SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIDING
THE WEAK RIDGE OVER THE SRN U.S. WED-FRI AHEAD OF ANOTHER ADVANCING
WRN TROUGH. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY... BUT GIVEN CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE... IT`S DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCES. FOR FRIDAY... SCENARIO
GETS A SKOSH CLEARER... WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF GRABBING A HOLD
OF A MORE DEFINITE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT DECENT MOISTURE RETURN
THROUGH THE LL ON THU AHEAD OF THIS WAVE... SO FELT CONFIDENT TO UP
POPS TO CHANCE AND LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS... REMAINING A FOCUS FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGER TROUGH BROADENS AND SHIFTS E/NE
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  64  79  64 /  50  20  30  30
HOBART OK         75  60  80  61 /  30  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  65  80  64 /  50  20  40  30
GAGE OK           76  58  81  58 /  30  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     73  63  80  64 /  40  20  20  20
DURANT OK         74  66  78  64 /  90  30  50  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ026-030>032-
     040>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ090.

&&

$$

23/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 240850
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
350 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM... TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

FLOODING IS THE MAIN CONCERN.

CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WEST OF A HENRIETTA TEXAS TO
PURCELL TO CHANDLER LINE WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE EAST OF THIS
LINE WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGEST.

TODAY...THINK THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED EAST. THESE LOCATIONS IN THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH EAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE MAY GET ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL. WEST OF THE LINE ABOVE INCLUDING OKLAHOMA
CITY...WICHITA FALLS...AND LAWTON...THINK THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED
TODAY AND LOWERED RAIN CHANCES ACCORDINGLY. MOST MODELS HAVE
MISHANDLED THE AMOUNT OF COOL AND STABLE AIR THAT CURRENTLY EXISTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WENT BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE HIGHS DUE TO
COOL STABLE AIR AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING...THINK POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW. WILL MONITOR A MCV AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK
TORNADO SPINNUP OR TWO NEAR DURANT AND ATOKA THROUGH 8 AM THIS
MORNING. OVERALL...THE AIR SEEMS TO BE TOO STABLE FOR SEVERE FOR
MUCH OF TODAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE DESTABLIZATION OCCURS
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS IF A MID/UPPER DRYSLOT MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WOULD
POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS TO OCCUR. OVERALL...THINK COOL LOW LEVEL AIR AND
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY AT HIGH LEVELS...WILL KEEP
SEVERE POTENTIAL QUITE LOW.

TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY DUE TO WEAK SUBSIDENCE.
WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED IF SOME FOG FORMED...BUT DID NOT MENTION
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

ON MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING...AND SEVERE
STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND MAY OCCUR. THE AIR WILL BE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE. FOR NOW...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
TIME FRAME...BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW STORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE AS THE AIR REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE...THOUGH COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE. ANY STORM MAY MOVE SLOWLY...BE STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH HAIL AND WIND...AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MBS

.LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER... DID
NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECEDING FORECAST. LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE SOME DECENT SYNOPTIC CONSISTENCY.
DEVIL IN THE DETAILS WILL BE THE SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIDING
THE WEAK RIDGE OVER THE SRN U.S. WED-FRI AHEAD OF ANOTHER ADVANCING
WRN TROUGH. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY... BUT GIVEN CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE... IT`S DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCES. FOR FRIDAY... SCENARIO
GETS A SKOSH CLEARER... WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF GRABBING A HOLD
OF A MORE DEFINITE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT DECENT MOISTURE RETURN
THROUGH THE LL ON THU AHEAD OF THIS WAVE... SO FELT CONFIDENT TO UP
POPS TO CHANCE AND LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS... REMAINING A FOCUS FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGER TROUGH BROADENS AND SHIFTS E/NE
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  64  79  64 /  50  20  30  30
HOBART OK         75  60  80  61 /  30  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  65  80  64 /  50  20  40  30
GAGE OK           76  58  81  58 /  30  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     73  63  80  64 /  40  20  20  20
DURANT OK         74  66  78  64 /  90  30  50  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ026-030>032-
     040>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ090.

&&

$$

23/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 240555
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUES TONIGHT.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL REMAIN MAINLY
EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED. RAIN RATES HAVE
DECREASED IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO SHAWNEE
LINE. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THESE LOCATIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES
AT BEST WITH MANY LOCATIONS ONLY RECEIVING LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL AS THE AIR IS WORKED OVER AND STABLE FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT IS VERY LOW DUE TO
WEAK INSTABILITY AND CONFINED MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE
MENTIONED IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOVE.

MAY REMOVE COUNTIES FROM THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND
UNDER 1 INCH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

RA WILL CONTINUE TO END WEST TO EAST AT MOST SITES THROUGH 12Z.
ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA MAY OCCUR AFTER 12Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE
MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

ONCE RA ENDS...WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
FORM. ALL SITES WILL LIKELY BE IFR OR LOWER 12-15Z WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z.

MBS

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/17/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 240555
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUES TONIGHT.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL REMAIN MAINLY
EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED. RAIN RATES HAVE
DECREASED IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO SHAWNEE
LINE. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THESE LOCATIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES
AT BEST WITH MANY LOCATIONS ONLY RECEIVING LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL AS THE AIR IS WORKED OVER AND STABLE FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT IS VERY LOW DUE TO
WEAK INSTABILITY AND CONFINED MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE
MENTIONED IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOVE.

MAY REMOVE COUNTIES FROM THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND
UNDER 1 INCH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

RA WILL CONTINUE TO END WEST TO EAST AT MOST SITES THROUGH 12Z.
ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA MAY OCCUR AFTER 12Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE
MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

ONCE RA ENDS...WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
FORM. ALL SITES WILL LIKELY BE IFR OR LOWER 12-15Z WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z.

MBS

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/17/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 240555
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUES TONIGHT.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL REMAIN MAINLY
EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED. RAIN RATES HAVE
DECREASED IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO SHAWNEE
LINE. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THESE LOCATIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES
AT BEST WITH MANY LOCATIONS ONLY RECEIVING LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL AS THE AIR IS WORKED OVER AND STABLE FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT IS VERY LOW DUE TO
WEAK INSTABILITY AND CONFINED MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE
MENTIONED IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOVE.

MAY REMOVE COUNTIES FROM THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND
UNDER 1 INCH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

RA WILL CONTINUE TO END WEST TO EAST AT MOST SITES THROUGH 12Z.
ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA MAY OCCUR AFTER 12Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE
MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

ONCE RA ENDS...WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
FORM. ALL SITES WILL LIKELY BE IFR OR LOWER 12-15Z WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z.

MBS

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/17/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 240555
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUES TONIGHT.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL REMAIN MAINLY
EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED. RAIN RATES HAVE
DECREASED IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO SHAWNEE
LINE. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THESE LOCATIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES
AT BEST WITH MANY LOCATIONS ONLY RECEIVING LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL AS THE AIR IS WORKED OVER AND STABLE FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT IS VERY LOW DUE TO
WEAK INSTABILITY AND CONFINED MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE
MENTIONED IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOVE.

MAY REMOVE COUNTIES FROM THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND
UNDER 1 INCH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

RA WILL CONTINUE TO END WEST TO EAST AT MOST SITES THROUGH 12Z.
ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA MAY OCCUR AFTER 12Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE
MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

ONCE RA ENDS...WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
FORM. ALL SITES WILL LIKELY BE IFR OR LOWER 12-15Z WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z.

MBS

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/17/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 240555
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUES TONIGHT.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL REMAIN MAINLY
EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED. RAIN RATES HAVE
DECREASED IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO SHAWNEE
LINE. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THESE LOCATIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES
AT BEST WITH MANY LOCATIONS ONLY RECEIVING LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL AS THE AIR IS WORKED OVER AND STABLE FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT IS VERY LOW DUE TO
WEAK INSTABILITY AND CONFINED MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE
MENTIONED IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOVE.

MAY REMOVE COUNTIES FROM THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND
UNDER 1 INCH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

RA WILL CONTINUE TO END WEST TO EAST AT MOST SITES THROUGH 12Z.
ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA MAY OCCUR AFTER 12Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE
MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

ONCE RA ENDS...WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
FORM. ALL SITES WILL LIKELY BE IFR OR LOWER 12-15Z WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z.

MBS

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/17/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 240555
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUES TONIGHT.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL REMAIN MAINLY
EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED. RAIN RATES HAVE
DECREASED IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO SHAWNEE
LINE. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THESE LOCATIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES
AT BEST WITH MANY LOCATIONS ONLY RECEIVING LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL AS THE AIR IS WORKED OVER AND STABLE FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT IS VERY LOW DUE TO
WEAK INSTABILITY AND CONFINED MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE
MENTIONED IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOVE.

MAY REMOVE COUNTIES FROM THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND
UNDER 1 INCH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

RA WILL CONTINUE TO END WEST TO EAST AT MOST SITES THROUGH 12Z.
ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA MAY OCCUR AFTER 12Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE
MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

ONCE RA ENDS...WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
FORM. ALL SITES WILL LIKELY BE IFR OR LOWER 12-15Z WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z.

MBS

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/17/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 240555
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUES TONIGHT.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL REMAIN MAINLY
EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED. RAIN RATES HAVE
DECREASED IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO SHAWNEE
LINE. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THESE LOCATIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES
AT BEST WITH MANY LOCATIONS ONLY RECEIVING LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL AS THE AIR IS WORKED OVER AND STABLE FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT IS VERY LOW DUE TO
WEAK INSTABILITY AND CONFINED MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE
MENTIONED IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOVE.

MAY REMOVE COUNTIES FROM THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND
UNDER 1 INCH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

RA WILL CONTINUE TO END WEST TO EAST AT MOST SITES THROUGH 12Z.
ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA MAY OCCUR AFTER 12Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE
MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

ONCE RA ENDS...WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
FORM. ALL SITES WILL LIKELY BE IFR OR LOWER 12-15Z WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z.

MBS

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/17/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 240555
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUES TONIGHT.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL REMAIN MAINLY
EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED. RAIN RATES HAVE
DECREASED IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO SHAWNEE
LINE. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THESE LOCATIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES
AT BEST WITH MANY LOCATIONS ONLY RECEIVING LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL AS THE AIR IS WORKED OVER AND STABLE FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT IS VERY LOW DUE TO
WEAK INSTABILITY AND CONFINED MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE
MENTIONED IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOVE.

MAY REMOVE COUNTIES FROM THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND
UNDER 1 INCH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

RA WILL CONTINUE TO END WEST TO EAST AT MOST SITES THROUGH 12Z.
ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA MAY OCCUR AFTER 12Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE
MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

ONCE RA ENDS...WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
FORM. ALL SITES WILL LIKELY BE IFR OR LOWER 12-15Z WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z.

MBS

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/17/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 240555
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUES TONIGHT.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL REMAIN MAINLY
EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED. RAIN RATES HAVE
DECREASED IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO SHAWNEE
LINE. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THESE LOCATIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES
AT BEST WITH MANY LOCATIONS ONLY RECEIVING LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL AS THE AIR IS WORKED OVER AND STABLE FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT IS VERY LOW DUE TO
WEAK INSTABILITY AND CONFINED MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE
MENTIONED IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOVE.

MAY REMOVE COUNTIES FROM THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND
UNDER 1 INCH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

RA WILL CONTINUE TO END WEST TO EAST AT MOST SITES THROUGH 12Z.
ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA MAY OCCUR AFTER 12Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE
MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

ONCE RA ENDS...WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
FORM. ALL SITES WILL LIKELY BE IFR OR LOWER 12-15Z WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z.

MBS

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/17/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 240555
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUES TONIGHT.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL REMAIN MAINLY
EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED. RAIN RATES HAVE
DECREASED IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO SHAWNEE
LINE. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THESE LOCATIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES
AT BEST WITH MANY LOCATIONS ONLY RECEIVING LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL AS THE AIR IS WORKED OVER AND STABLE FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT IS VERY LOW DUE TO
WEAK INSTABILITY AND CONFINED MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE
MENTIONED IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOVE.

MAY REMOVE COUNTIES FROM THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND
UNDER 1 INCH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

RA WILL CONTINUE TO END WEST TO EAST AT MOST SITES THROUGH 12Z.
ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA MAY OCCUR AFTER 12Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE
MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

ONCE RA ENDS...WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
FORM. ALL SITES WILL LIKELY BE IFR OR LOWER 12-15Z WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z.

MBS

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/17/30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 240459
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1159 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR TO
IFR CIGS...AND MVFR VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN ONGOING ACROSS ERN OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING...WITH BOTH THE FLOODING AND SEVERE RISK TRANSLATING
SLOWLY TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN LINE AT
THIS TIME...SO UPDATES IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE FOR ANY CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCH THAT RUNS UNTIL 4 AM.

FLOODING IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AS THE HEAVIER
RAIN AXIS INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH ADDITIONAL WARNINGS
LIKELY FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE EAST...INCLUDING NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 240459
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1159 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR TO
IFR CIGS...AND MVFR VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN ONGOING ACROSS ERN OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING...WITH BOTH THE FLOODING AND SEVERE RISK TRANSLATING
SLOWLY TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN LINE AT
THIS TIME...SO UPDATES IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE FOR ANY CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCH THAT RUNS UNTIL 4 AM.

FLOODING IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AS THE HEAVIER
RAIN AXIS INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH ADDITIONAL WARNINGS
LIKELY FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE EAST...INCLUDING NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 240459
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1159 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR TO
IFR CIGS...AND MVFR VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN ONGOING ACROSS ERN OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING...WITH BOTH THE FLOODING AND SEVERE RISK TRANSLATING
SLOWLY TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN LINE AT
THIS TIME...SO UPDATES IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE FOR ANY CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCH THAT RUNS UNTIL 4 AM.

FLOODING IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AS THE HEAVIER
RAIN AXIS INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH ADDITIONAL WARNINGS
LIKELY FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE EAST...INCLUDING NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 240255
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
955 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN ONGOING ACROSS ERN OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING...WITH BOTH THE FLOODING AND SEVERE RISK TRANSLATING
SLOWLY TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN LINE AT
THIS TIME...SO UPDATES IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE FOR ANY CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCH THAT RUNS UNTIL 4 AM.

FLOODING IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AS THE HEAVIER
RAIN AXIS INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH ADDITIONAL WARNINGS
LIKELY FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE EAST...INCLUDING NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT.



&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....99





000
FXUS64 KTSA 240255
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
955 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN ONGOING ACROSS ERN OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING...WITH BOTH THE FLOODING AND SEVERE RISK TRANSLATING
SLOWLY TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN LINE AT
THIS TIME...SO UPDATES IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE FOR ANY CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCH THAT RUNS UNTIL 4 AM.

FLOODING IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AS THE HEAVIER
RAIN AXIS INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH ADDITIONAL WARNINGS
LIKELY FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE EAST...INCLUDING NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT.



&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....99






000
FXUS64 KOUN 240136
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
836 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EVOLVING HEAVY RAIN...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IN SHORT... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OUT DUE TO THE WARM
SECTOR CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT COLLIDING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT EARLIER THIS EVENING. IN RESPONSE...
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE FROM EAST CENTRAL OK TO THE
OKC METRO... BACK TO SWRN OK AND INTO NRN TX THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LIFE THREATENING FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING AND THIS
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE SITUATION. IT
IS IMPERATIVE THAT YOU DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS OR TRY
TO WALK OR PLAY IN FLOOD WATERS. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION...
PLEASE HEED ALL FLOOD WARNINGS AND INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD FOR THIS EVENING... OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
SUNDAY. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD... WITH
IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... BUT
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS SITUATION SETTING UP ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS AS ROUNDS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT/SUNDAY. MANY RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD AND ADDITIONAL TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND RAINFALL RATES OF IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL
CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE THE SITUATION. PLEASE BE CAREFUL. WILL CONT
WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER... MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTN AND EVENING. LOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR... HOWEVER INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER LIMITED
OUTSIDE OF FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

PATTERN REMAINS RATHER ACTIVE AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE STORMS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS... HOWEVER THEY DO REMAIN. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS YET ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  72  62  80 / 100  90  20  30
HOBART OK         62  75  58  81 / 100  50  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  65  77  62  81 / 100  80  20  40
GAGE OK           59  76  56  82 /  40  30  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     61  73  61  81 / 100  80  30  20
DURANT OK         68  73  65  79 / 100 100  60  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 240136
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
836 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EVOLVING HEAVY RAIN...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IN SHORT... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OUT DUE TO THE WARM
SECTOR CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT COLLIDING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT EARLIER THIS EVENING. IN RESPONSE...
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE FROM EAST CENTRAL OK TO THE
OKC METRO... BACK TO SWRN OK AND INTO NRN TX THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LIFE THREATENING FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING AND THIS
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE SITUATION. IT
IS IMPERATIVE THAT YOU DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS OR TRY
TO WALK OR PLAY IN FLOOD WATERS. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION...
PLEASE HEED ALL FLOOD WARNINGS AND INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD FOR THIS EVENING... OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
SUNDAY. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD... WITH
IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... BUT
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS SITUATION SETTING UP ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS AS ROUNDS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT/SUNDAY. MANY RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD AND ADDITIONAL TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND RAINFALL RATES OF IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL
CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE THE SITUATION. PLEASE BE CAREFUL. WILL CONT
WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER... MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTN AND EVENING. LOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR... HOWEVER INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER LIMITED
OUTSIDE OF FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

PATTERN REMAINS RATHER ACTIVE AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE STORMS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS... HOWEVER THEY DO REMAIN. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS YET ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  72  62  80 / 100  90  20  30
HOBART OK         62  75  58  81 / 100  50  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  65  77  62  81 / 100  80  20  40
GAGE OK           59  76  56  82 /  40  30  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     61  73  61  81 / 100  80  30  20
DURANT OK         68  73  65  79 / 100 100  60  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 240136
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
836 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EVOLVING HEAVY RAIN...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IN SHORT... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OUT DUE TO THE WARM
SECTOR CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT COLLIDING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT EARLIER THIS EVENING. IN RESPONSE...
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE FROM EAST CENTRAL OK TO THE
OKC METRO... BACK TO SWRN OK AND INTO NRN TX THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LIFE THREATENING FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING AND THIS
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE SITUATION. IT
IS IMPERATIVE THAT YOU DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS OR TRY
TO WALK OR PLAY IN FLOOD WATERS. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION...
PLEASE HEED ALL FLOOD WARNINGS AND INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD FOR THIS EVENING... OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
SUNDAY. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD... WITH
IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... BUT
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS SITUATION SETTING UP ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS AS ROUNDS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT/SUNDAY. MANY RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD AND ADDITIONAL TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND RAINFALL RATES OF IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL
CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE THE SITUATION. PLEASE BE CAREFUL. WILL CONT
WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER... MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTN AND EVENING. LOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR... HOWEVER INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER LIMITED
OUTSIDE OF FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

PATTERN REMAINS RATHER ACTIVE AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE STORMS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS... HOWEVER THEY DO REMAIN. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS YET ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  72  62  80 / 100  90  20  30
HOBART OK         62  75  58  81 / 100  50  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  65  77  62  81 / 100  80  20  40
GAGE OK           59  76  56  82 /  40  30  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     61  73  61  81 / 100  80  30  20
DURANT OK         68  73  65  79 / 100 100  60  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 240136
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
836 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EVOLVING HEAVY RAIN...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IN SHORT... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OUT DUE TO THE WARM
SECTOR CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT COLLIDING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT EARLIER THIS EVENING. IN RESPONSE...
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE FROM EAST CENTRAL OK TO THE
OKC METRO... BACK TO SWRN OK AND INTO NRN TX THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LIFE THREATENING FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING AND THIS
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE SITUATION. IT
IS IMPERATIVE THAT YOU DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS OR TRY
TO WALK OR PLAY IN FLOOD WATERS. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION...
PLEASE HEED ALL FLOOD WARNINGS AND INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD FOR THIS EVENING... OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
SUNDAY. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD... WITH
IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... BUT
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS SITUATION SETTING UP ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS AS ROUNDS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT/SUNDAY. MANY RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD AND ADDITIONAL TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND RAINFALL RATES OF IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL
CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE THE SITUATION. PLEASE BE CAREFUL. WILL CONT
WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER... MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTN AND EVENING. LOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR... HOWEVER INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER LIMITED
OUTSIDE OF FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

PATTERN REMAINS RATHER ACTIVE AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE STORMS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS... HOWEVER THEY DO REMAIN. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS YET ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  72  62  80 / 100  90  20  30
HOBART OK         62  75  58  81 / 100  50  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  65  77  62  81 / 100  80  20  40
GAGE OK           59  76  56  82 /  40  30  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     61  73  61  81 / 100  80  30  20
DURANT OK         68  73  65  79 / 100 100  60  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 232328 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD FOR THIS EVENING... OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
SUNDAY. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD... WITH
IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... BUT
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS SITUATION SETTING UP ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS AS ROUNDS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT/SUNDAY. MANY RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD AND ADDITIONAL TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND RAINFALL RATES OF IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL
CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE THE SITUATION. PLEASE BE CAREFUL. WILL CONT
WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER... MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTN AND EVENING. LOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR... HOWEVER INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER LIMITED
OUTSIDE OF FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

PATTERN REMAINS RATHER ACTIVE AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE STORMS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS... HOWEVER THEY DO REMAIN. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS YET ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  73  62  80 / 100  90  20  30
HOBART OK         61  75  58  81 /  60  50  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  77  62  81 / 100  80  20  40
GAGE OK           58  76  56  82 /  40  30  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     63  74  61  81 / 100  80  30  20
DURANT OK         66  73  65  79 / 100 100  60  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 232328 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD FOR THIS EVENING... OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
SUNDAY. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD... WITH
IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... BUT
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS SITUATION SETTING UP ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS AS ROUNDS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT/SUNDAY. MANY RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD AND ADDITIONAL TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND RAINFALL RATES OF IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL
CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE THE SITUATION. PLEASE BE CAREFUL. WILL CONT
WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER... MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTN AND EVENING. LOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR... HOWEVER INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER LIMITED
OUTSIDE OF FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

PATTERN REMAINS RATHER ACTIVE AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE STORMS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS... HOWEVER THEY DO REMAIN. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS YET ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  73  62  80 / 100  90  20  30
HOBART OK         61  75  58  81 /  60  50  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  77  62  81 / 100  80  20  40
GAGE OK           58  76  56  82 /  40  30  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     63  74  61  81 / 100  80  30  20
DURANT OK         66  73  65  79 / 100 100  60  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 232316
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
616 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VERY MESSY AVIATION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEEP PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE FLIGHT CATEGORIES...BOUNCING
FROM VFR TO IFR AT TIMES WITH STORMS. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
MVFR RANGE. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SE AND MAY GUST
TO AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

..LIFE THREATENING FLOOD POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITHIN AN EXPANDING PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. OBSERVED
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS BENEATH
ANY CONVECTIVE SEGMENT THAT BECOMES ORIENTATED PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BACK AS
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WHILE DIFFLUENT REGION GRADUALLY SPREADS
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TX NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL FORECASTS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE
BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND LATER UPDATES
MAY NEED TO INCREASE TOTALS A BIT FURTHER ESPECIALLY FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

IMPACT: WET SOILS ALONG WITH MANY LARGER RIVERS NEAR OR CURRENTLY
IN FLOOD STAGE WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING. EVEN
THE CONSERVATIVE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL PRODUCE LIFE AND PROPERTY
THREATENING FLOODING.

THE RAINFALL AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON / OVERNIGHT
AND IMPACT WESTERN ARKANSAS. WHILE THE RAINFALL TOTALS MAY TAPER A
BIT AS THE UPPER FORCING REMAINS LESS...THE SATURATED CONDITIONS
WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FLOODING. OF ADDITIONAL
CONCERN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A LARGE COMPLEX OF
STORMS ORIGINATES ACROSS WESTERN TX AND SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD.
WHILE THE BULK OF THIS RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST NEAR THE
ARKLATEX REGION...HEALTHY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
INTO SE OK AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHICH WILL QUICKLY WORSEN ANY
ONGOING FLOOD CONDITIONS.

A LULL IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD
BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  75  64  81 / 100 100  40  20
FSM   68  78  66  80 /  90 100  80  40
MLC   67  73  67  79 / 100 100  40  40
BVO   65  74  61  81 / 100 100  40  20
FYV   65  74  63  77 /  80 100  80  40
BYV   64  76  64  78 /  70 100  80  30
MKO   65  74  64  80 / 100 100  50  40
MIO   65  76  63  80 / 100 100  60  20
F10   65  73  65  79 / 100 100  40  40
HHW   68  75  67  79 /  90 100  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 232316
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
616 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VERY MESSY AVIATION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEEP PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE FLIGHT CATEGORIES...BOUNCING
FROM VFR TO IFR AT TIMES WITH STORMS. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
MVFR RANGE. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SE AND MAY GUST
TO AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

..LIFE THREATENING FLOOD POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITHIN AN EXPANDING PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. OBSERVED
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS BENEATH
ANY CONVECTIVE SEGMENT THAT BECOMES ORIENTATED PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BACK AS
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WHILE DIFFLUENT REGION GRADUALLY SPREADS
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TX NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL FORECASTS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE
BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND LATER UPDATES
MAY NEED TO INCREASE TOTALS A BIT FURTHER ESPECIALLY FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

IMPACT: WET SOILS ALONG WITH MANY LARGER RIVERS NEAR OR CURRENTLY
IN FLOOD STAGE WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING. EVEN
THE CONSERVATIVE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL PRODUCE LIFE AND PROPERTY
THREATENING FLOODING.

THE RAINFALL AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON / OVERNIGHT
AND IMPACT WESTERN ARKANSAS. WHILE THE RAINFALL TOTALS MAY TAPER A
BIT AS THE UPPER FORCING REMAINS LESS...THE SATURATED CONDITIONS
WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FLOODING. OF ADDITIONAL
CONCERN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A LARGE COMPLEX OF
STORMS ORIGINATES ACROSS WESTERN TX AND SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD.
WHILE THE BULK OF THIS RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST NEAR THE
ARKLATEX REGION...HEALTHY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
INTO SE OK AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHICH WILL QUICKLY WORSEN ANY
ONGOING FLOOD CONDITIONS.

A LULL IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD
BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  75  64  81 / 100 100  40  20
FSM   68  78  66  80 /  90 100  80  40
MLC   67  73  67  79 / 100 100  40  40
BVO   65  74  61  81 / 100 100  40  20
FYV   65  74  63  77 /  80 100  80  40
BYV   64  76  64  78 /  70 100  80  30
MKO   65  74  64  80 / 100 100  50  40
MIO   65  76  63  80 / 100 100  60  20
F10   65  73  65  79 / 100 100  40  40
HHW   68  75  67  79 /  90 100  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 232316
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
616 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VERY MESSY AVIATION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEEP PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE FLIGHT CATEGORIES...BOUNCING
FROM VFR TO IFR AT TIMES WITH STORMS. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
MVFR RANGE. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SE AND MAY GUST
TO AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

..LIFE THREATENING FLOOD POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITHIN AN EXPANDING PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. OBSERVED
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS BENEATH
ANY CONVECTIVE SEGMENT THAT BECOMES ORIENTATED PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BACK AS
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WHILE DIFFLUENT REGION GRADUALLY SPREADS
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TX NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL FORECASTS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE
BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND LATER UPDATES
MAY NEED TO INCREASE TOTALS A BIT FURTHER ESPECIALLY FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

IMPACT: WET SOILS ALONG WITH MANY LARGER RIVERS NEAR OR CURRENTLY
IN FLOOD STAGE WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING. EVEN
THE CONSERVATIVE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL PRODUCE LIFE AND PROPERTY
THREATENING FLOODING.

THE RAINFALL AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON / OVERNIGHT
AND IMPACT WESTERN ARKANSAS. WHILE THE RAINFALL TOTALS MAY TAPER A
BIT AS THE UPPER FORCING REMAINS LESS...THE SATURATED CONDITIONS
WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FLOODING. OF ADDITIONAL
CONCERN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A LARGE COMPLEX OF
STORMS ORIGINATES ACROSS WESTERN TX AND SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD.
WHILE THE BULK OF THIS RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST NEAR THE
ARKLATEX REGION...HEALTHY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
INTO SE OK AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHICH WILL QUICKLY WORSEN ANY
ONGOING FLOOD CONDITIONS.

A LULL IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD
BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  75  64  81 / 100 100  40  20
FSM   68  78  66  80 /  90 100  80  40
MLC   67  73  67  79 / 100 100  40  40
BVO   65  74  61  81 / 100 100  40  20
FYV   65  74  63  77 /  80 100  80  40
BYV   64  76  64  78 /  70 100  80  30
MKO   65  74  64  80 / 100 100  50  40
MIO   65  76  63  80 / 100 100  60  20
F10   65  73  65  79 / 100 100  40  40
HHW   68  75  67  79 /  90 100  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 232316
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
616 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VERY MESSY AVIATION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEEP PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE FLIGHT CATEGORIES...BOUNCING
FROM VFR TO IFR AT TIMES WITH STORMS. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
MVFR RANGE. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SE AND MAY GUST
TO AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

..LIFE THREATENING FLOOD POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITHIN AN EXPANDING PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. OBSERVED
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS BENEATH
ANY CONVECTIVE SEGMENT THAT BECOMES ORIENTATED PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BACK AS
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WHILE DIFFLUENT REGION GRADUALLY SPREADS
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TX NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL FORECASTS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE
BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND LATER UPDATES
MAY NEED TO INCREASE TOTALS A BIT FURTHER ESPECIALLY FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

IMPACT: WET SOILS ALONG WITH MANY LARGER RIVERS NEAR OR CURRENTLY
IN FLOOD STAGE WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING. EVEN
THE CONSERVATIVE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL PRODUCE LIFE AND PROPERTY
THREATENING FLOODING.

THE RAINFALL AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON / OVERNIGHT
AND IMPACT WESTERN ARKANSAS. WHILE THE RAINFALL TOTALS MAY TAPER A
BIT AS THE UPPER FORCING REMAINS LESS...THE SATURATED CONDITIONS
WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FLOODING. OF ADDITIONAL
CONCERN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A LARGE COMPLEX OF
STORMS ORIGINATES ACROSS WESTERN TX AND SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD.
WHILE THE BULK OF THIS RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST NEAR THE
ARKLATEX REGION...HEALTHY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
INTO SE OK AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHICH WILL QUICKLY WORSEN ANY
ONGOING FLOOD CONDITIONS.

A LULL IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD
BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  75  64  81 / 100 100  40  20
FSM   68  78  66  80 /  90 100  80  40
MLC   67  73  67  79 / 100 100  40  40
BVO   65  74  61  81 / 100 100  40  20
FYV   65  74  63  77 /  80 100  80  40
BYV   64  76  64  78 /  70 100  80  30
MKO   65  74  64  80 / 100 100  50  40
MIO   65  76  63  80 / 100 100  60  20
F10   65  73  65  79 / 100 100  40  40
HHW   68  75  67  79 /  90 100  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 232037
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
337 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...LIFE THREATENING FLOOD POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITHIN AN EXPANDING PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. OBSERVED
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS BENEATH
ANY CONVECTIVE SEGMENT THAT BECOMES ORIENTATED PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BACK AS
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WHILE DIFFLUENT REGION GRADUALLY SPREADS
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TX NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL FORECASTS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE
BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND LATER UPDATES
MAY NEED TO INCREASE TOTALS A BIT FURTHER ESPECIALLY FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

IMPACT: WET SOILS ALONG WITH MANY LARGER RIVERS NEAR OR CURRENTLY
IN FLOOD STAGE WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING. EVEN
THE CONSERVATIVE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL PRODUCE LIFE AND PROPERTY
THREATENING FLOODING.

THE RAINFALL AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON / OVERNIGHT
AND IMPACT WESTERN ARKANSAS. WHILE THE RAINFALL TOTALS MAY TAPER A
BIT AS THE UPPER FORCING REMAINS LESS...THE SATURATED CONDITIONS
WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FLOODING. OF ADDITIONAL
CONCERN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A LARGE COMPLEX OF
STORMS ORIGINATES ACROSS WESTERN TX AND SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD.
WHILE THE BULK OF THIS RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST NEAR THE
ARKLATEX REGION...HEALTHY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
INTO SE OK AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHICH WILL QUICKLY WORSEN ANY
ONGOING FLOOD CONDITIONS.

A LULL IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD
BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  75  64  81 / 100 100  40  20
FSM   68  78  66  80 /  90 100  80  40
MLC   67  73  67  79 / 100 100  40  40
BVO   65  74  61  81 / 100 100  40  20
FYV   65  74  63  77 /  80 100  80  40
BYV   64  76  64  78 /  70 100  80  30
MKO   65  74  64  80 / 100 100  50  40
MIO   65  76  63  80 / 100 100  60  20
F10   65  73  65  79 / 100 100  40  40
HHW   68  75  67  79 /  90 100  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 232037
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
337 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...LIFE THREATENING FLOOD POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITHIN AN EXPANDING PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. OBSERVED
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS BENEATH
ANY CONVECTIVE SEGMENT THAT BECOMES ORIENTATED PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BACK AS
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WHILE DIFFLUENT REGION GRADUALLY SPREADS
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TX NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL FORECASTS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE
BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND LATER UPDATES
MAY NEED TO INCREASE TOTALS A BIT FURTHER ESPECIALLY FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

IMPACT: WET SOILS ALONG WITH MANY LARGER RIVERS NEAR OR CURRENTLY
IN FLOOD STAGE WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING. EVEN
THE CONSERVATIVE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL PRODUCE LIFE AND PROPERTY
THREATENING FLOODING.

THE RAINFALL AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON / OVERNIGHT
AND IMPACT WESTERN ARKANSAS. WHILE THE RAINFALL TOTALS MAY TAPER A
BIT AS THE UPPER FORCING REMAINS LESS...THE SATURATED CONDITIONS
WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FLOODING. OF ADDITIONAL
CONCERN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A LARGE COMPLEX OF
STORMS ORIGINATES ACROSS WESTERN TX AND SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD.
WHILE THE BULK OF THIS RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST NEAR THE
ARKLATEX REGION...HEALTHY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
INTO SE OK AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHICH WILL QUICKLY WORSEN ANY
ONGOING FLOOD CONDITIONS.

A LULL IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD
BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  75  64  81 / 100 100  40  20
FSM   68  78  66  80 /  90 100  80  40
MLC   67  73  67  79 / 100 100  40  40
BVO   65  74  61  81 / 100 100  40  20
FYV   65  74  63  77 /  80 100  80  40
BYV   64  76  64  78 /  70 100  80  30
MKO   65  74  64  80 / 100 100  50  40
MIO   65  76  63  80 / 100 100  60  20
F10   65  73  65  79 / 100 100  40  40
HHW   68  75  67  79 /  90 100  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KOUN 231936
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS SITUATION SETTING UP ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS AS ROUNDS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT/SUNDAY. MANY RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD AND ADDITIONAL TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND RAINFALL RATES OF IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL
CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE THE SITUATION. PLEASE BE CAREFUL. WILL CONT
WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER... MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTN AND EVENING. LOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR... HOWEVER INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER LIMITED
OUTSIDE OF FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

PATTERN REMAINS RATHER ACTIVE AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE STORMS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS... HOWEVER THEY DO REMAIN. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS YET ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  73  62  80 / 100  90  20  30
HOBART OK         61  75  58  81 /  60  50  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  77  62  81 / 100  80  20  40
GAGE OK           58  76  56  82 /  40  30  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     63  74  61  81 / 100  80  30  20
DURANT OK         66  73  65  79 / 100 100  60  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

26/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 231936
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS SITUATION SETTING UP ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS AS ROUNDS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT/SUNDAY. MANY RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD AND ADDITIONAL TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND RAINFALL RATES OF IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL
CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE THE SITUATION. PLEASE BE CAREFUL. WILL CONT
WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER... MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTN AND EVENING. LOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR... HOWEVER INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER LIMITED
OUTSIDE OF FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

PATTERN REMAINS RATHER ACTIVE AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE STORMS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS... HOWEVER THEY DO REMAIN. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS YET ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  73  62  80 / 100  90  20  30
HOBART OK         61  75  58  81 /  60  50  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  77  62  81 / 100  80  20  40
GAGE OK           58  76  56  82 /  40  30  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     63  74  61  81 / 100  80  30  20
DURANT OK         66  73  65  79 / 100 100  60  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

26/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 231936
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS SITUATION SETTING UP ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS AS ROUNDS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT/SUNDAY. MANY RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD AND ADDITIONAL TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND RAINFALL RATES OF IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL
CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE THE SITUATION. PLEASE BE CAREFUL. WILL CONT
WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER... MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTN AND EVENING. LOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR... HOWEVER INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER LIMITED
OUTSIDE OF FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

PATTERN REMAINS RATHER ACTIVE AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE STORMS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS... HOWEVER THEY DO REMAIN. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS YET ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  73  62  80 / 100  90  20  30
HOBART OK         61  75  58  81 /  60  50  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  77  62  81 / 100  80  20  40
GAGE OK           58  76  56  82 /  40  30  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     63  74  61  81 / 100  80  30  20
DURANT OK         66  73  65  79 / 100 100  60  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

26/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 231936
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS SITUATION SETTING UP ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS AS ROUNDS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT/SUNDAY. MANY RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD AND ADDITIONAL TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND RAINFALL RATES OF IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL
CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE THE SITUATION. PLEASE BE CAREFUL. WILL CONT
WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER... MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTN AND EVENING. LOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR... HOWEVER INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER LIMITED
OUTSIDE OF FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

PATTERN REMAINS RATHER ACTIVE AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE STORMS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS... HOWEVER THEY DO REMAIN. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS YET ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  73  62  80 / 100  90  20  30
HOBART OK         61  75  58  81 /  60  50  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  77  62  81 / 100  80  20  40
GAGE OK           58  76  56  82 /  40  30  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     63  74  61  81 / 100  80  30  20
DURANT OK         66  73  65  79 / 100 100  60  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

26/30



000
FXUS64 KTSA 231619
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1119 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
PREVIOUS UPDATES HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR COVERAGE TRENDS OF MORNING
CONVECTION...AND THE LATEST UPDATE WILL DELAY THE MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF PRECIP UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND PRIMARILY ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY FROM NORTH TX INTO SW OK
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY WHILE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING TROUGH. RESULT
WILL BE PROFILES INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN.
ADDITIONALLY...PROFILES RESULT IN SKINNY CAPE AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SHEAR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS
SUPPORTS AT LEAST A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE HOWEVER THE MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL REMAIN THE FLOODING WHICH WILL WORSEN
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  67  73  64 /  70 100 100  50
FSM   77  68  76  65 /  30  90  90  80
MLC   75  68  73  65 /  50 100 100  60
BVO   71  65  72  61 /  70 100 100  40
FYV   74  64  72  62 /  30  90 100  90
BYV   75  64  73  63 /  30  80  80  90
MKO   74  66  73  63 /  50 100 100  70
MIO   74  64  72  62 /  50 100 100  80
F10   73  66  70  63 /  60 100 100  60
HHW   77  67  73  65 /  50  80 100  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 231619
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1119 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
PREVIOUS UPDATES HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR COVERAGE TRENDS OF MORNING
CONVECTION...AND THE LATEST UPDATE WILL DELAY THE MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF PRECIP UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND PRIMARILY ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY FROM NORTH TX INTO SW OK
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY WHILE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING TROUGH. RESULT
WILL BE PROFILES INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN.
ADDITIONALLY...PROFILES RESULT IN SKINNY CAPE AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SHEAR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS
SUPPORTS AT LEAST A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE HOWEVER THE MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL REMAIN THE FLOODING WHICH WILL WORSEN
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  67  73  64 /  70 100 100  50
FSM   77  68  76  65 /  30  90  90  80
MLC   75  68  73  65 /  50 100 100  60
BVO   71  65  72  61 /  70 100 100  40
FYV   74  64  72  62 /  30  90 100  90
BYV   75  64  73  63 /  30  80  80  90
MKO   74  66  73  63 /  50 100 100  70
MIO   74  64  72  62 /  50 100 100  80
F10   73  66  70  63 /  60 100 100  60
HHW   77  67  73  65 /  50  80 100  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 231619
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1119 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
PREVIOUS UPDATES HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR COVERAGE TRENDS OF MORNING
CONVECTION...AND THE LATEST UPDATE WILL DELAY THE MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF PRECIP UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND PRIMARILY ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY FROM NORTH TX INTO SW OK
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY WHILE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING TROUGH. RESULT
WILL BE PROFILES INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN.
ADDITIONALLY...PROFILES RESULT IN SKINNY CAPE AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SHEAR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS
SUPPORTS AT LEAST A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE HOWEVER THE MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL REMAIN THE FLOODING WHICH WILL WORSEN
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  67  73  64 /  70 100 100  50
FSM   77  68  76  65 /  30  90  90  80
MLC   75  68  73  65 /  50 100 100  60
BVO   71  65  72  61 /  70 100 100  40
FYV   74  64  72  62 /  30  90 100  90
BYV   75  64  73  63 /  30  80  80  90
MKO   74  66  73  63 /  50 100 100  70
MIO   74  64  72  62 /  50 100 100  80
F10   73  66  70  63 /  60 100 100  60
HHW   77  67  73  65 /  50  80 100  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 231619
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1119 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
PREVIOUS UPDATES HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR COVERAGE TRENDS OF MORNING
CONVECTION...AND THE LATEST UPDATE WILL DELAY THE MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF PRECIP UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND PRIMARILY ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY FROM NORTH TX INTO SW OK
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY WHILE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING TROUGH. RESULT
WILL BE PROFILES INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN.
ADDITIONALLY...PROFILES RESULT IN SKINNY CAPE AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SHEAR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS
SUPPORTS AT LEAST A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE HOWEVER THE MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL REMAIN THE FLOODING WHICH WILL WORSEN
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  67  73  64 /  70 100 100  50
FSM   77  68  76  65 /  30  90  90  80
MLC   75  68  73  65 /  50 100 100  60
BVO   71  65  72  61 /  70 100 100  40
FYV   74  64  72  62 /  30  90 100  90
BYV   75  64  73  63 /  30  80  80  90
MKO   74  66  73  63 /  50 100 100  70
MIO   74  64  72  62 /  50 100 100  80
F10   73  66  70  63 /  60 100 100  60
HHW   77  67  73  65 /  50  80 100  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 231143
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
643 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BANDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE STRONGER STORMS PRIMARILY DUE TO
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST
TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IMPACTING SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WITH CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 231143
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
643 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BANDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE STRONGER STORMS PRIMARILY DUE TO
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST
TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IMPACTING SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WITH CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 231143
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
643 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BANDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE STRONGER STORMS PRIMARILY DUE TO
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST
TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IMPACTING SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WITH CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KOUN 231135
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
635 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL SITES IN THE LOCATIONS MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE FALLEN
TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS...SO ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 10 AM.

CURRENT COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER THE PANHANDLES WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AND BRING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THESE LOCATIONS. SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY
IS LOW THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVELS APPEAR TO BE TOO COOL AND
STABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO REACH THE GROUND AND AS MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE HAIL PRODUCTION.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT ALL SITES 15-18Z
TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS. A FEW LOCATIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY BE LIFR AND PERHAPS BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS DUE TO FG THROUGH 15Z.

A COMPLEX OF TSRA WILL AFFECT KWWR AND KGAG 13-18Z. ADDITIONAL
TSRA WILL FORM AND AFFECT NEARLY ANY SITE AFTER 16Z...BUT
DETERMINING WHERE AND WHEN TSRA OCCURS REMAINS VERY CHALLENGING.
VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS AND IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY TSRA.

WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS MAY FORM AGAIN AFTER
01Z...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

..DANGEROUS FLOODING EXPECTED IN SOME LOCATIONS TODAY THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY...

DISCUSSION...
FLOODING AND SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY REMAIN
THE MAIN CONCERNS.

CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WAS NOT ALTERED
AT THIS TIME. THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH NEAR
RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 2 INCHES...SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM...AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR.
KEPT TOTAL RAINFALL 2 TO 5 INCHES. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT FROM WICHITA FALLS TO
OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER.

ADDED AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS MAY EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/4
MILE...BUT FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...
THINKING SURFACE WINDS MAY KEEP THE AIR MIXED NEAR THE GROUND JUST
ENOUGH TO KEEP VISIBILITIES ABOVE 1/4 MILE.

THIS MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
FORM AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM. THINK
THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY ELEVATED AND GENERALLY JUST BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...THOUGH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR. MOST STORMS
SHOULD STAY NORTHWEST OF A HOLLIS TO CLINTON TO ENID LINE.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA...THOUGH CAPPING MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STILL LOOKS LIKE A MESSY
PATTERN...BUT BANDS AND LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FORM ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT VERY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES. A SURFACE WARM
FRONT WILL SURGE NORTH TODAY AND ALLOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-45 KT SUPPORT MULTICELLS
AND SUPERCELLS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INCREASING AND THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR...0-1 KM 20 TO 35 KT...TO
SUPPORT A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SIGNFICANT SEVERE
STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. FLOODING
REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN.

TONIGHT...A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY FORM AND SLOWLY PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LATEST MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
DEPICTING THE HIGHEST QPF/RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR A WICHITA FALLS TO
OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER LINE. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY
MATERIALIZE CAUSING LIFE THREATENING FLOODING. KEPT VERY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

SUNDAY...THINK THE BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
AND MAINLY BE SOUTHEAST OF I-44 WHERE A FEW INCHES OF FLOODING
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR. BELIEVE THE AIR WILL BE COOL AND
RATHER STABLE TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. THERE MAY BE A MID/UPPER DRY SLOT TO ALLOW FOR CLEARING
AND  DESTABILIZATION IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WENT WELL BELOW GUIDANCE
HIGHS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY FORM...BUT DID
NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MEMORIAL DAY...NOT SURE WHAT WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY BUT WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR. LATEST MODELS HINTED THAT VERY MOIST...
WARM...AND UNSTABLE...POSSIBLY VERY UNSTABLE...AIR WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE AREA MAY BE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET TO PROMOTE UPWARDS MOTION. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR. DO NOT EXPECT A WASHOUT BY
ANY MEANS WITH MANY MORE DRY HOURS THAN WET ONES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY AND SUNDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WARM MOIST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. MID AND
UPPER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR LESS STORM
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS FROM ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY OCCUR. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE WARMER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
LATE MAY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  63  73  62 / 100 100  80  20
HOBART OK         73  61  75  58 / 100  60  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  63  77  62 / 100  90  70  20
GAGE OK           70  58  76  56 / 100  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     72  63  74  61 / 100  90  80  30
DURANT OK         78  66  73  65 /  60  90 100  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ014>017-
     021>023-033>037.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ083>085.

&&

$$

23/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 231135
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
635 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL SITES IN THE LOCATIONS MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE FALLEN
TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS...SO ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 10 AM.

CURRENT COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER THE PANHANDLES WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AND BRING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THESE LOCATIONS. SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY
IS LOW THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVELS APPEAR TO BE TOO COOL AND
STABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO REACH THE GROUND AND AS MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE HAIL PRODUCTION.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT ALL SITES 15-18Z
TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS. A FEW LOCATIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY BE LIFR AND PERHAPS BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS DUE TO FG THROUGH 15Z.

A COMPLEX OF TSRA WILL AFFECT KWWR AND KGAG 13-18Z. ADDITIONAL
TSRA WILL FORM AND AFFECT NEARLY ANY SITE AFTER 16Z...BUT
DETERMINING WHERE AND WHEN TSRA OCCURS REMAINS VERY CHALLENGING.
VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS AND IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY TSRA.

WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS MAY FORM AGAIN AFTER
01Z...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

..DANGEROUS FLOODING EXPECTED IN SOME LOCATIONS TODAY THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY...

DISCUSSION...
FLOODING AND SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY REMAIN
THE MAIN CONCERNS.

CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WAS NOT ALTERED
AT THIS TIME. THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH NEAR
RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 2 INCHES...SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM...AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR.
KEPT TOTAL RAINFALL 2 TO 5 INCHES. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT FROM WICHITA FALLS TO
OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER.

ADDED AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS MAY EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/4
MILE...BUT FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...
THINKING SURFACE WINDS MAY KEEP THE AIR MIXED NEAR THE GROUND JUST
ENOUGH TO KEEP VISIBILITIES ABOVE 1/4 MILE.

THIS MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
FORM AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM. THINK
THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY ELEVATED AND GENERALLY JUST BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...THOUGH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR. MOST STORMS
SHOULD STAY NORTHWEST OF A HOLLIS TO CLINTON TO ENID LINE.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA...THOUGH CAPPING MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STILL LOOKS LIKE A MESSY
PATTERN...BUT BANDS AND LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FORM ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT VERY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES. A SURFACE WARM
FRONT WILL SURGE NORTH TODAY AND ALLOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-45 KT SUPPORT MULTICELLS
AND SUPERCELLS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INCREASING AND THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR...0-1 KM 20 TO 35 KT...TO
SUPPORT A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SIGNFICANT SEVERE
STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. FLOODING
REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN.

TONIGHT...A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY FORM AND SLOWLY PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LATEST MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
DEPICTING THE HIGHEST QPF/RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR A WICHITA FALLS TO
OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER LINE. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY
MATERIALIZE CAUSING LIFE THREATENING FLOODING. KEPT VERY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

SUNDAY...THINK THE BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
AND MAINLY BE SOUTHEAST OF I-44 WHERE A FEW INCHES OF FLOODING
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR. BELIEVE THE AIR WILL BE COOL AND
RATHER STABLE TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. THERE MAY BE A MID/UPPER DRY SLOT TO ALLOW FOR CLEARING
AND  DESTABILIZATION IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WENT WELL BELOW GUIDANCE
HIGHS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY FORM...BUT DID
NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MEMORIAL DAY...NOT SURE WHAT WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY BUT WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR. LATEST MODELS HINTED THAT VERY MOIST...
WARM...AND UNSTABLE...POSSIBLY VERY UNSTABLE...AIR WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE AREA MAY BE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET TO PROMOTE UPWARDS MOTION. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR. DO NOT EXPECT A WASHOUT BY
ANY MEANS WITH MANY MORE DRY HOURS THAN WET ONES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY AND SUNDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WARM MOIST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. MID AND
UPPER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR LESS STORM
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS FROM ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY OCCUR. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE WARMER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
LATE MAY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  63  73  62 / 100 100  80  20
HOBART OK         73  61  75  58 / 100  60  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  63  77  62 / 100  90  70  20
GAGE OK           70  58  76  56 / 100  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     72  63  74  61 / 100  90  80  30
DURANT OK         78  66  73  65 /  60  90 100  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ014>017-
     021>023-033>037.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ083>085.

&&

$$

23/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 231135
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
635 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL SITES IN THE LOCATIONS MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE FALLEN
TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS...SO ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 10 AM.

CURRENT COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER THE PANHANDLES WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AND BRING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THESE LOCATIONS. SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY
IS LOW THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVELS APPEAR TO BE TOO COOL AND
STABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO REACH THE GROUND AND AS MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE HAIL PRODUCTION.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT ALL SITES 15-18Z
TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS. A FEW LOCATIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY BE LIFR AND PERHAPS BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS DUE TO FG THROUGH 15Z.

A COMPLEX OF TSRA WILL AFFECT KWWR AND KGAG 13-18Z. ADDITIONAL
TSRA WILL FORM AND AFFECT NEARLY ANY SITE AFTER 16Z...BUT
DETERMINING WHERE AND WHEN TSRA OCCURS REMAINS VERY CHALLENGING.
VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS AND IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY TSRA.

WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS MAY FORM AGAIN AFTER
01Z...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

..DANGEROUS FLOODING EXPECTED IN SOME LOCATIONS TODAY THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY...

DISCUSSION...
FLOODING AND SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY REMAIN
THE MAIN CONCERNS.

CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WAS NOT ALTERED
AT THIS TIME. THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH NEAR
RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 2 INCHES...SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM...AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR.
KEPT TOTAL RAINFALL 2 TO 5 INCHES. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT FROM WICHITA FALLS TO
OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER.

ADDED AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS MAY EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/4
MILE...BUT FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...
THINKING SURFACE WINDS MAY KEEP THE AIR MIXED NEAR THE GROUND JUST
ENOUGH TO KEEP VISIBILITIES ABOVE 1/4 MILE.

THIS MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
FORM AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM. THINK
THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY ELEVATED AND GENERALLY JUST BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...THOUGH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR. MOST STORMS
SHOULD STAY NORTHWEST OF A HOLLIS TO CLINTON TO ENID LINE.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA...THOUGH CAPPING MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STILL LOOKS LIKE A MESSY
PATTERN...BUT BANDS AND LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FORM ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT VERY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES. A SURFACE WARM
FRONT WILL SURGE NORTH TODAY AND ALLOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-45 KT SUPPORT MULTICELLS
AND SUPERCELLS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INCREASING AND THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR...0-1 KM 20 TO 35 KT...TO
SUPPORT A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SIGNFICANT SEVERE
STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. FLOODING
REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN.

TONIGHT...A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY FORM AND SLOWLY PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LATEST MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
DEPICTING THE HIGHEST QPF/RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR A WICHITA FALLS TO
OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER LINE. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY
MATERIALIZE CAUSING LIFE THREATENING FLOODING. KEPT VERY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

SUNDAY...THINK THE BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
AND MAINLY BE SOUTHEAST OF I-44 WHERE A FEW INCHES OF FLOODING
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR. BELIEVE THE AIR WILL BE COOL AND
RATHER STABLE TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. THERE MAY BE A MID/UPPER DRY SLOT TO ALLOW FOR CLEARING
AND  DESTABILIZATION IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WENT WELL BELOW GUIDANCE
HIGHS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY FORM...BUT DID
NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MEMORIAL DAY...NOT SURE WHAT WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY BUT WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR. LATEST MODELS HINTED THAT VERY MOIST...
WARM...AND UNSTABLE...POSSIBLY VERY UNSTABLE...AIR WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE AREA MAY BE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET TO PROMOTE UPWARDS MOTION. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR. DO NOT EXPECT A WASHOUT BY
ANY MEANS WITH MANY MORE DRY HOURS THAN WET ONES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY AND SUNDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WARM MOIST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. MID AND
UPPER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR LESS STORM
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS FROM ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY OCCUR. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE WARMER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
LATE MAY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  63  73  62 / 100 100  80  20
HOBART OK         73  61  75  58 / 100  60  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  63  77  62 / 100  90  70  20
GAGE OK           70  58  76  56 / 100  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     72  63  74  61 / 100  90  80  30
DURANT OK         78  66  73  65 /  60  90 100  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ014>017-
     021>023-033>037.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ083>085.

&&

$$

23/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 231135
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
635 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL SITES IN THE LOCATIONS MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE FALLEN
TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS...SO ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 10 AM.

CURRENT COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER THE PANHANDLES WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AND BRING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THESE LOCATIONS. SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY
IS LOW THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVELS APPEAR TO BE TOO COOL AND
STABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO REACH THE GROUND AND AS MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE HAIL PRODUCTION.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT ALL SITES 15-18Z
TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS. A FEW LOCATIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY BE LIFR AND PERHAPS BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS DUE TO FG THROUGH 15Z.

A COMPLEX OF TSRA WILL AFFECT KWWR AND KGAG 13-18Z. ADDITIONAL
TSRA WILL FORM AND AFFECT NEARLY ANY SITE AFTER 16Z...BUT
DETERMINING WHERE AND WHEN TSRA OCCURS REMAINS VERY CHALLENGING.
VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS AND IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY TSRA.

WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS MAY FORM AGAIN AFTER
01Z...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

..DANGEROUS FLOODING EXPECTED IN SOME LOCATIONS TODAY THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY...

DISCUSSION...
FLOODING AND SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY REMAIN
THE MAIN CONCERNS.

CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WAS NOT ALTERED
AT THIS TIME. THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH NEAR
RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 2 INCHES...SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM...AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR.
KEPT TOTAL RAINFALL 2 TO 5 INCHES. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT FROM WICHITA FALLS TO
OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER.

ADDED AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS MAY EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/4
MILE...BUT FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...
THINKING SURFACE WINDS MAY KEEP THE AIR MIXED NEAR THE GROUND JUST
ENOUGH TO KEEP VISIBILITIES ABOVE 1/4 MILE.

THIS MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
FORM AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM. THINK
THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY ELEVATED AND GENERALLY JUST BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...THOUGH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR. MOST STORMS
SHOULD STAY NORTHWEST OF A HOLLIS TO CLINTON TO ENID LINE.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA...THOUGH CAPPING MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STILL LOOKS LIKE A MESSY
PATTERN...BUT BANDS AND LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FORM ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT VERY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES. A SURFACE WARM
FRONT WILL SURGE NORTH TODAY AND ALLOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-45 KT SUPPORT MULTICELLS
AND SUPERCELLS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INCREASING AND THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR...0-1 KM 20 TO 35 KT...TO
SUPPORT A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SIGNFICANT SEVERE
STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. FLOODING
REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN.

TONIGHT...A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY FORM AND SLOWLY PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LATEST MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
DEPICTING THE HIGHEST QPF/RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR A WICHITA FALLS TO
OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER LINE. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY
MATERIALIZE CAUSING LIFE THREATENING FLOODING. KEPT VERY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

SUNDAY...THINK THE BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
AND MAINLY BE SOUTHEAST OF I-44 WHERE A FEW INCHES OF FLOODING
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR. BELIEVE THE AIR WILL BE COOL AND
RATHER STABLE TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. THERE MAY BE A MID/UPPER DRY SLOT TO ALLOW FOR CLEARING
AND  DESTABILIZATION IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WENT WELL BELOW GUIDANCE
HIGHS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY FORM...BUT DID
NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MEMORIAL DAY...NOT SURE WHAT WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY BUT WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR. LATEST MODELS HINTED THAT VERY MOIST...
WARM...AND UNSTABLE...POSSIBLY VERY UNSTABLE...AIR WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE AREA MAY BE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET TO PROMOTE UPWARDS MOTION. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR. DO NOT EXPECT A WASHOUT BY
ANY MEANS WITH MANY MORE DRY HOURS THAN WET ONES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY AND SUNDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WARM MOIST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. MID AND
UPPER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR LESS STORM
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS FROM ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY OCCUR. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE WARMER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
LATE MAY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  63  73  62 / 100 100  80  20
HOBART OK         73  61  75  58 / 100  60  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  63  77  62 / 100  90  70  20
GAGE OK           70  58  76  56 / 100  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     72  63  74  61 / 100  90  80  30
DURANT OK         78  66  73  65 /  60  90 100  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ014>017-
     021>023-033>037.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ083>085.

&&

$$

23/17/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 230957
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
POTENTIAL FOR PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FLOOD SITUATION
SETTING UP TONIGHT  AND  SUNDAY FOR OSAGE WASHINGTON
NOWATA PAWNEE  TULSA  ROGERS  WAGONER CREEK OKMULGEE
AND OKFUSKEE COUNTIES. FORECAST FOR OVER 4 INCHES OF
RAIN FOR PART / ALL OF THOSE COUNTIES. LOCAL AMOUNTS
COULD BE...SEVERAL INCHES HIGHER. CREEK OSAGE PAWNEE
COUNTIES LOOK TO BE MOST VULNERABLE.  STAY TUNED.

SCATTERED SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  PROLONGED PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW COUPLED WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH  1.75
TO 2.00  PRECIPITABLE WATER SPELLS ULTRA WET EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND TO SLIGHTLY LESSER EXTENT  WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HEAVIEST RAIN TONIGHT SUNDAY
EASTERN OK AND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST AR.

BULK OF PRECIPITATION OVER BY DAYLIGHT MONDAY EXCEPT
FAR SOUTHEAST OK.  UPCOMING WORK WEEK CONTINUES WAVY
PATTERN...HOWEVER LESS POTENT WAVES. CHANCE POP MUCH
OF THE WEEK.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  67  73  64 /  90 100 100  50
FSM   77  68  76  65 /  60  90  90  80
MLC   75  68  73  65 /  70 100 100  60
BVO   71  65  72  61 /  90 100 100  40
FYV   74  64  72  62 /  60  90 100  90
BYV   75  64  73  63 /  30  80  80  90
MKO   74  66  73  63 /  70 100 100  70
MIO   74  64  72  62 /  70 100 100  80
F10   73  66  70  63 /  80 100 100  60
HHW   77  67  73  65 /  70  80 100  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 230957
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
POTENTIAL FOR PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FLOOD SITUATION
SETTING UP TONIGHT  AND  SUNDAY FOR OSAGE WASHINGTON
NOWATA PAWNEE  TULSA  ROGERS  WAGONER CREEK OKMULGEE
AND OKFUSKEE COUNTIES. FORECAST FOR OVER 4 INCHES OF
RAIN FOR PART / ALL OF THOSE COUNTIES. LOCAL AMOUNTS
COULD BE...SEVERAL INCHES HIGHER. CREEK OSAGE PAWNEE
COUNTIES LOOK TO BE MOST VULNERABLE.  STAY TUNED.

SCATTERED SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  PROLONGED PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW COUPLED WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH  1.75
TO 2.00  PRECIPITABLE WATER SPELLS ULTRA WET EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND TO SLIGHTLY LESSER EXTENT  WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HEAVIEST RAIN TONIGHT SUNDAY
EASTERN OK AND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST AR.

BULK OF PRECIPITATION OVER BY DAYLIGHT MONDAY EXCEPT
FAR SOUTHEAST OK.  UPCOMING WORK WEEK CONTINUES WAVY
PATTERN...HOWEVER LESS POTENT WAVES. CHANCE POP MUCH
OF THE WEEK.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  67  73  64 /  90 100 100  50
FSM   77  68  76  65 /  60  90  90  80
MLC   75  68  73  65 /  70 100 100  60
BVO   71  65  72  61 /  90 100 100  40
FYV   74  64  72  62 /  60  90 100  90
BYV   75  64  73  63 /  30  80  80  90
MKO   74  66  73  63 /  70 100 100  70
MIO   74  64  72  62 /  70 100 100  80
F10   73  66  70  63 /  80 100 100  60
HHW   77  67  73  65 /  70  80 100  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 230957
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
POTENTIAL FOR PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FLOOD SITUATION
SETTING UP TONIGHT  AND  SUNDAY FOR OSAGE WASHINGTON
NOWATA PAWNEE  TULSA  ROGERS  WAGONER CREEK OKMULGEE
AND OKFUSKEE COUNTIES. FORECAST FOR OVER 4 INCHES OF
RAIN FOR PART / ALL OF THOSE COUNTIES. LOCAL AMOUNTS
COULD BE...SEVERAL INCHES HIGHER. CREEK OSAGE PAWNEE
COUNTIES LOOK TO BE MOST VULNERABLE.  STAY TUNED.

SCATTERED SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  PROLONGED PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW COUPLED WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH  1.75
TO 2.00  PRECIPITABLE WATER SPELLS ULTRA WET EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND TO SLIGHTLY LESSER EXTENT  WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HEAVIEST RAIN TONIGHT SUNDAY
EASTERN OK AND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST AR.

BULK OF PRECIPITATION OVER BY DAYLIGHT MONDAY EXCEPT
FAR SOUTHEAST OK.  UPCOMING WORK WEEK CONTINUES WAVY
PATTERN...HOWEVER LESS POTENT WAVES. CHANCE POP MUCH
OF THE WEEK.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  67  73  64 /  90 100 100  50
FSM   77  68  76  65 /  60  90  90  80
MLC   75  68  73  65 /  70 100 100  60
BVO   71  65  72  61 /  90 100 100  40
FYV   74  64  72  62 /  60  90 100  90
BYV   75  64  73  63 /  30  80  80  90
MKO   74  66  73  63 /  70 100 100  70
MIO   74  64  72  62 /  70 100 100  80
F10   73  66  70  63 /  80 100 100  60
HHW   77  67  73  65 /  70  80 100  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 230957
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
POTENTIAL FOR PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FLOOD SITUATION
SETTING UP TONIGHT  AND  SUNDAY FOR OSAGE WASHINGTON
NOWATA PAWNEE  TULSA  ROGERS  WAGONER CREEK OKMULGEE
AND OKFUSKEE COUNTIES. FORECAST FOR OVER 4 INCHES OF
RAIN FOR PART / ALL OF THOSE COUNTIES. LOCAL AMOUNTS
COULD BE...SEVERAL INCHES HIGHER. CREEK OSAGE PAWNEE
COUNTIES LOOK TO BE MOST VULNERABLE.  STAY TUNED.

SCATTERED SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  PROLONGED PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW COUPLED WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH  1.75
TO 2.00  PRECIPITABLE WATER SPELLS ULTRA WET EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND TO SLIGHTLY LESSER EXTENT  WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HEAVIEST RAIN TONIGHT SUNDAY
EASTERN OK AND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST AR.

BULK OF PRECIPITATION OVER BY DAYLIGHT MONDAY EXCEPT
FAR SOUTHEAST OK.  UPCOMING WORK WEEK CONTINUES WAVY
PATTERN...HOWEVER LESS POTENT WAVES. CHANCE POP MUCH
OF THE WEEK.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  67  73  64 /  90 100 100  50
FSM   77  68  76  65 /  60  90  90  80
MLC   75  68  73  65 /  70 100 100  60
BVO   71  65  72  61 /  90 100 100  40
FYV   74  64  72  62 /  60  90 100  90
BYV   75  64  73  63 /  30  80  80  90
MKO   74  66  73  63 /  70 100 100  70
MIO   74  64  72  62 /  70 100 100  80
F10   73  66  70  63 /  80 100 100  60
HHW   77  67  73  65 /  70  80 100  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KOUN 230916
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
416 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...DANGEROUS FLOODING EXPECTED IN SOME LOCATIONS TODAY THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY...

.DISCUSSION...
FLOODING AND SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY REMAIN
THE MAIN CONCERNS.

CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WAS NOT ALTERED
AT THIS TIME. THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH NEAR
RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 2 INCHES...SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM...AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR.
KEPT TOTAL RAINFALL 2 TO 5 INCHES. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT FROM WICHITA FALLS TO
OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER.

ADDED AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS MAY EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/4
MILE...BUT FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...
THINKING SURFACE WINDS MAY KEEP THE AIR MIXED NEAR THE GROUND JUST
ENOUGH TO KEEP VISIBILITIES ABOVE 1/4 MILE.

THIS MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
FORM AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM. THINK
THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY ELEVATED AND GENERALLY JUST BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...THOUGH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR. MOST STORMS
SHOULD STAY NORTHWEST OF A HOLLIS TO CLINTON TO ENID LINE.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA...THOUGH CAPPING MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STILL LOOKS LIKE A MESSY
PATTERN...BUT BANDS AND LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FORM ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT VERY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES. A SURFACE WARM
FRONT WILL SURGE NORTH TODAY AND ALLOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-45 KT SUPPORT MULTICELLS
AND SUPERCELLS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INCREASING AND THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR...0-1 KM 20 TO 35 KT...TO
SUPPORT A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SIGNFICANT SEVERE
STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. FLOODING
REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN.

TONIGHT...A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY FORM AND SLOWLY PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LATEST MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
DEPICTING THE HIGHEST QPF/RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR A WICHITA FALLS TO
OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER LINE. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY
MATERIALIZE CAUSING LIFE THREATENING FLOODING. KEPT VERY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

SUNDAY...THINK THE BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
AND MAINLY BE SOUTHEAST OF I-44 WHERE A FEW INCHES OF FLOODING
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR. BELIEVE THE AIR WILL BE COOL AND
RATHER STABLE TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. THERE MAY BE A MID/UPPER DRY SLOT TO ALLOW FOR CLEARING
AND  DESTABILIZATION IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WENT WELL BELOW GUIDANCE
HIGHS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY FORM...BUT DID
NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MEMORIAL DAY...NOT SURE WHAT WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY BUT WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR. LATEST MODELS HINTED THAT VERY MOIST...
WARM...AND UNSTABLE...POSSIBLY VERY UNSTABLE...AIR WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE AREA MAY BE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET TO PROMOTE UPWARDS MOTION. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR. DO NOT EXPECT A WASHOUT BY
ANY MEANS WITH MANY MORE DRY HOURS THAN WET ONES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY AND SUNDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WARM MOIST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. MID AND
UPPER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR LESS STORM
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS FROM ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY OCCUR. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE WARMER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
LATE MAY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  63  73  62 / 100 100  80  20
HOBART OK         73  61  75  58 / 100  60  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  63  77  62 / 100  90  70  20
GAGE OK           70  58  76  56 / 100  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     72  63  74  61 / 100  90  80  30
DURANT OK         78  66  73  65 /  60  90 100  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

23/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 230916
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
416 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...DANGEROUS FLOODING EXPECTED IN SOME LOCATIONS TODAY THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY...

.DISCUSSION...
FLOODING AND SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY REMAIN
THE MAIN CONCERNS.

CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WAS NOT ALTERED
AT THIS TIME. THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH NEAR
RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 2 INCHES...SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM...AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR.
KEPT TOTAL RAINFALL 2 TO 5 INCHES. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT FROM WICHITA FALLS TO
OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER.

ADDED AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS MAY EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/4
MILE...BUT FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...
THINKING SURFACE WINDS MAY KEEP THE AIR MIXED NEAR THE GROUND JUST
ENOUGH TO KEEP VISIBILITIES ABOVE 1/4 MILE.

THIS MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
FORM AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM. THINK
THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY ELEVATED AND GENERALLY JUST BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...THOUGH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR. MOST STORMS
SHOULD STAY NORTHWEST OF A HOLLIS TO CLINTON TO ENID LINE.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA...THOUGH CAPPING MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STILL LOOKS LIKE A MESSY
PATTERN...BUT BANDS AND LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FORM ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT VERY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES. A SURFACE WARM
FRONT WILL SURGE NORTH TODAY AND ALLOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-45 KT SUPPORT MULTICELLS
AND SUPERCELLS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INCREASING AND THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR...0-1 KM 20 TO 35 KT...TO
SUPPORT A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SIGNFICANT SEVERE
STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. FLOODING
REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN.

TONIGHT...A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY FORM AND SLOWLY PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LATEST MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
DEPICTING THE HIGHEST QPF/RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR A WICHITA FALLS TO
OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER LINE. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY
MATERIALIZE CAUSING LIFE THREATENING FLOODING. KEPT VERY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

SUNDAY...THINK THE BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
AND MAINLY BE SOUTHEAST OF I-44 WHERE A FEW INCHES OF FLOODING
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR. BELIEVE THE AIR WILL BE COOL AND
RATHER STABLE TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. THERE MAY BE A MID/UPPER DRY SLOT TO ALLOW FOR CLEARING
AND  DESTABILIZATION IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WENT WELL BELOW GUIDANCE
HIGHS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY FORM...BUT DID
NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MEMORIAL DAY...NOT SURE WHAT WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY BUT WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR. LATEST MODELS HINTED THAT VERY MOIST...
WARM...AND UNSTABLE...POSSIBLY VERY UNSTABLE...AIR WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE AREA MAY BE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET TO PROMOTE UPWARDS MOTION. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR. DO NOT EXPECT A WASHOUT BY
ANY MEANS WITH MANY MORE DRY HOURS THAN WET ONES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY AND SUNDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WARM MOIST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. MID AND
UPPER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR LESS STORM
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS FROM ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY OCCUR. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE WARMER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
LATE MAY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  63  73  62 / 100 100  80  20
HOBART OK         73  61  75  58 / 100  60  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  63  77  62 / 100  90  70  20
GAGE OK           70  58  76  56 / 100  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     72  63  74  61 / 100  90  80  30
DURANT OK         78  66  73  65 /  60  90 100  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

23/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 230916
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
416 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...DANGEROUS FLOODING EXPECTED IN SOME LOCATIONS TODAY THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY...

.DISCUSSION...
FLOODING AND SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY REMAIN
THE MAIN CONCERNS.

CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WAS NOT ALTERED
AT THIS TIME. THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH NEAR
RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 2 INCHES...SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM...AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR.
KEPT TOTAL RAINFALL 2 TO 5 INCHES. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT FROM WICHITA FALLS TO
OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER.

ADDED AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS MAY EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/4
MILE...BUT FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...
THINKING SURFACE WINDS MAY KEEP THE AIR MIXED NEAR THE GROUND JUST
ENOUGH TO KEEP VISIBILITIES ABOVE 1/4 MILE.

THIS MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
FORM AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM. THINK
THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY ELEVATED AND GENERALLY JUST BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...THOUGH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR. MOST STORMS
SHOULD STAY NORTHWEST OF A HOLLIS TO CLINTON TO ENID LINE.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA...THOUGH CAPPING MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STILL LOOKS LIKE A MESSY
PATTERN...BUT BANDS AND LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FORM ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT VERY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES. A SURFACE WARM
FRONT WILL SURGE NORTH TODAY AND ALLOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-45 KT SUPPORT MULTICELLS
AND SUPERCELLS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INCREASING AND THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR...0-1 KM 20 TO 35 KT...TO
SUPPORT A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SIGNFICANT SEVERE
STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. FLOODING
REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN.

TONIGHT...A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY FORM AND SLOWLY PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LATEST MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
DEPICTING THE HIGHEST QPF/RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR A WICHITA FALLS TO
OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER LINE. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY
MATERIALIZE CAUSING LIFE THREATENING FLOODING. KEPT VERY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

SUNDAY...THINK THE BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
AND MAINLY BE SOUTHEAST OF I-44 WHERE A FEW INCHES OF FLOODING
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR. BELIEVE THE AIR WILL BE COOL AND
RATHER STABLE TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. THERE MAY BE A MID/UPPER DRY SLOT TO ALLOW FOR CLEARING
AND  DESTABILIZATION IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WENT WELL BELOW GUIDANCE
HIGHS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY FORM...BUT DID
NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MEMORIAL DAY...NOT SURE WHAT WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY BUT WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR. LATEST MODELS HINTED THAT VERY MOIST...
WARM...AND UNSTABLE...POSSIBLY VERY UNSTABLE...AIR WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE AREA MAY BE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET TO PROMOTE UPWARDS MOTION. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR. DO NOT EXPECT A WASHOUT BY
ANY MEANS WITH MANY MORE DRY HOURS THAN WET ONES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY AND SUNDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WARM MOIST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. MID AND
UPPER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR LESS STORM
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS FROM ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY OCCUR. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE WARMER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
LATE MAY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  63  73  62 / 100 100  80  20
HOBART OK         73  61  75  58 / 100  60  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  63  77  62 / 100  90  70  20
GAGE OK           70  58  76  56 / 100  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     72  63  74  61 / 100  90  80  30
DURANT OK         78  66  73  65 /  60  90 100  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

23/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 230916
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
416 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...DANGEROUS FLOODING EXPECTED IN SOME LOCATIONS TODAY THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY...

.DISCUSSION...
FLOODING AND SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY REMAIN
THE MAIN CONCERNS.

CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WAS NOT ALTERED
AT THIS TIME. THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH NEAR
RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 2 INCHES...SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM...AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR.
KEPT TOTAL RAINFALL 2 TO 5 INCHES. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT FROM WICHITA FALLS TO
OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER.

ADDED AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS MAY EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/4
MILE...BUT FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...
THINKING SURFACE WINDS MAY KEEP THE AIR MIXED NEAR THE GROUND JUST
ENOUGH TO KEEP VISIBILITIES ABOVE 1/4 MILE.

THIS MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
FORM AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM. THINK
THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY ELEVATED AND GENERALLY JUST BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...THOUGH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR. MOST STORMS
SHOULD STAY NORTHWEST OF A HOLLIS TO CLINTON TO ENID LINE.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA...THOUGH CAPPING MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STILL LOOKS LIKE A MESSY
PATTERN...BUT BANDS AND LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FORM ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT VERY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES. A SURFACE WARM
FRONT WILL SURGE NORTH TODAY AND ALLOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-45 KT SUPPORT MULTICELLS
AND SUPERCELLS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INCREASING AND THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR...0-1 KM 20 TO 35 KT...TO
SUPPORT A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SIGNFICANT SEVERE
STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. FLOODING
REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN.

TONIGHT...A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY FORM AND SLOWLY PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LATEST MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
DEPICTING THE HIGHEST QPF/RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR A WICHITA FALLS TO
OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER LINE. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY
MATERIALIZE CAUSING LIFE THREATENING FLOODING. KEPT VERY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

SUNDAY...THINK THE BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
AND MAINLY BE SOUTHEAST OF I-44 WHERE A FEW INCHES OF FLOODING
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR. BELIEVE THE AIR WILL BE COOL AND
RATHER STABLE TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. THERE MAY BE A MID/UPPER DRY SLOT TO ALLOW FOR CLEARING
AND  DESTABILIZATION IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WENT WELL BELOW GUIDANCE
HIGHS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY FORM...BUT DID
NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MEMORIAL DAY...NOT SURE WHAT WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY BUT WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR. LATEST MODELS HINTED THAT VERY MOIST...
WARM...AND UNSTABLE...POSSIBLY VERY UNSTABLE...AIR WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE AREA MAY BE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET TO PROMOTE UPWARDS MOTION. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR. DO NOT EXPECT A WASHOUT BY
ANY MEANS WITH MANY MORE DRY HOURS THAN WET ONES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY AND SUNDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WARM MOIST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. MID AND
UPPER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR LESS STORM
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS FROM ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY OCCUR. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE WARMER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
LATE MAY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  63  73  62 / 100 100  80  20
HOBART OK         73  61  75  58 / 100  60  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  63  77  62 / 100  90  70  20
GAGE OK           70  58  76  56 / 100  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     72  63  74  61 / 100  90  80  30
DURANT OK         78  66  73  65 /  60  90 100  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

23/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 230450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WILL GIVE WAY TO WORSENING FLYING
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BECOME MORE COMMON
AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE BRINGS A LARGE SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS
SE OK IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECREASING IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXPAND
INTO A LARGER PORTION OF NE OK AND PERHAPS NW
AR UNDER A PERSISTENT 25-30 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET.

HAVE TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES WHERE MADE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 230450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WILL GIVE WAY TO WORSENING FLYING
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BECOME MORE COMMON
AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE BRINGS A LARGE SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS
SE OK IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECREASING IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXPAND
INTO A LARGER PORTION OF NE OK AND PERHAPS NW
AR UNDER A PERSISTENT 25-30 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET.

HAVE TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES WHERE MADE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 230450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WILL GIVE WAY TO WORSENING FLYING
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BECOME MORE COMMON
AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE BRINGS A LARGE SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS
SE OK IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECREASING IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXPAND
INTO A LARGER PORTION OF NE OK AND PERHAPS NW
AR UNDER A PERSISTENT 25-30 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET.

HAVE TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES WHERE MADE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 230450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WILL GIVE WAY TO WORSENING FLYING
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BECOME MORE COMMON
AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE BRINGS A LARGE SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS
SE OK IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECREASING IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXPAND
INTO A LARGER PORTION OF NE OK AND PERHAPS NW
AR UNDER A PERSISTENT 25-30 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET.

HAVE TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES WHERE MADE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KOUN 230321
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1021 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
6Z TAFS... LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SOME
SITES OVERNIGHT THEN RAIN WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. THE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS DOWN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE SATURATED AIRMASS WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE DRIZZLE...SO ADDED THAT TO WX GRIDS. STORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE INTO FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME SEVERE WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

AUSTIN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN SATURDAY MORNING AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRESENT ROUND OF RAIN MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO GIVE AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TO
THESE AREAS BEFORE LATE EVENING TODAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE, WILL BEGIN TO BRING RAIN INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
EARLY SATURDAY AND EXPAND AND MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER NEARLY
ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECTIVE UNTIL MONDAY. A LARGE AREA
OF 4 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THE MAJORITY OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO FALL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN RIVERS ALREADY NEAR OR IN FLOOD WILL RISE EVEN
MORE. HOWEVER, BEFORE THEN, FAIRLY STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL HELP TO
SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL
PROBABLY KEEP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOW. MONDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY TO LESS RAIN BEFORE UNTIL ANOTHER MORE PROGRESSIVE
UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAIN SINCE THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A THIRD
GOOD CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY OR IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  74  63  73 /  50 100  90  80
HOBART OK         59  71  61  75 /  50 100  60  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  76  64  77 /  40 100  90  70
GAGE OK           58  71  58  76 /  60 100  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     57  72  63  74 /  50 100  80  70
DURANT OK         62  78  66  75 /  50  60 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 230321
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1021 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
6Z TAFS... LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SOME
SITES OVERNIGHT THEN RAIN WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. THE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS DOWN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE SATURATED AIRMASS WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE DRIZZLE...SO ADDED THAT TO WX GRIDS. STORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE INTO FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME SEVERE WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

AUSTIN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN SATURDAY MORNING AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRESENT ROUND OF RAIN MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO GIVE AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TO
THESE AREAS BEFORE LATE EVENING TODAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE, WILL BEGIN TO BRING RAIN INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
EARLY SATURDAY AND EXPAND AND MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER NEARLY
ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECTIVE UNTIL MONDAY. A LARGE AREA
OF 4 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THE MAJORITY OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO FALL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN RIVERS ALREADY NEAR OR IN FLOOD WILL RISE EVEN
MORE. HOWEVER, BEFORE THEN, FAIRLY STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL HELP TO
SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL
PROBABLY KEEP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOW. MONDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY TO LESS RAIN BEFORE UNTIL ANOTHER MORE PROGRESSIVE
UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAIN SINCE THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A THIRD
GOOD CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY OR IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  74  63  73 /  50 100  90  80
HOBART OK         59  71  61  75 /  50 100  60  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  76  64  77 /  40 100  90  70
GAGE OK           58  71  58  76 /  60 100  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     57  72  63  74 /  50 100  80  70
DURANT OK         62  78  66  75 /  50  60 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 230321
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1021 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
6Z TAFS... LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SOME
SITES OVERNIGHT THEN RAIN WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. THE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS DOWN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE SATURATED AIRMASS WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE DRIZZLE...SO ADDED THAT TO WX GRIDS. STORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE INTO FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME SEVERE WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

AUSTIN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN SATURDAY MORNING AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRESENT ROUND OF RAIN MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO GIVE AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TO
THESE AREAS BEFORE LATE EVENING TODAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE, WILL BEGIN TO BRING RAIN INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
EARLY SATURDAY AND EXPAND AND MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER NEARLY
ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECTIVE UNTIL MONDAY. A LARGE AREA
OF 4 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THE MAJORITY OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO FALL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN RIVERS ALREADY NEAR OR IN FLOOD WILL RISE EVEN
MORE. HOWEVER, BEFORE THEN, FAIRLY STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL HELP TO
SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL
PROBABLY KEEP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOW. MONDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY TO LESS RAIN BEFORE UNTIL ANOTHER MORE PROGRESSIVE
UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAIN SINCE THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A THIRD
GOOD CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY OR IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  74  63  73 /  50 100  90  80
HOBART OK         59  71  61  75 /  50 100  60  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  76  64  77 /  40 100  90  70
GAGE OK           58  71  58  76 /  60 100  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     57  72  63  74 /  50 100  80  70
DURANT OK         62  78  66  75 /  50  60 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 230321
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1021 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
6Z TAFS... LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SOME
SITES OVERNIGHT THEN RAIN WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. THE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS DOWN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE SATURATED AIRMASS WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE DRIZZLE...SO ADDED THAT TO WX GRIDS. STORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE INTO FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME SEVERE WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

AUSTIN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN SATURDAY MORNING AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRESENT ROUND OF RAIN MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO GIVE AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TO
THESE AREAS BEFORE LATE EVENING TODAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE, WILL BEGIN TO BRING RAIN INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
EARLY SATURDAY AND EXPAND AND MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER NEARLY
ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECTIVE UNTIL MONDAY. A LARGE AREA
OF 4 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THE MAJORITY OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO FALL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN RIVERS ALREADY NEAR OR IN FLOOD WILL RISE EVEN
MORE. HOWEVER, BEFORE THEN, FAIRLY STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL HELP TO
SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL
PROBABLY KEEP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOW. MONDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY TO LESS RAIN BEFORE UNTIL ANOTHER MORE PROGRESSIVE
UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAIN SINCE THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A THIRD
GOOD CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY OR IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  74  63  73 /  50 100  90  80
HOBART OK         59  71  61  75 /  50 100  60  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  76  64  77 /  40 100  90  70
GAGE OK           58  71  58  76 /  60 100  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     57  72  63  74 /  50 100  80  70
DURANT OK         62  78  66  75 /  50  60 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 230321
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1021 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
6Z TAFS... LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SOME
SITES OVERNIGHT THEN RAIN WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. THE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS DOWN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE SATURATED AIRMASS WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE DRIZZLE...SO ADDED THAT TO WX GRIDS. STORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE INTO FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME SEVERE WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

AUSTIN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN SATURDAY MORNING AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRESENT ROUND OF RAIN MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO GIVE AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TO
THESE AREAS BEFORE LATE EVENING TODAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE, WILL BEGIN TO BRING RAIN INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
EARLY SATURDAY AND EXPAND AND MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER NEARLY
ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECTIVE UNTIL MONDAY. A LARGE AREA
OF 4 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THE MAJORITY OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO FALL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN RIVERS ALREADY NEAR OR IN FLOOD WILL RISE EVEN
MORE. HOWEVER, BEFORE THEN, FAIRLY STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL HELP TO
SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL
PROBABLY KEEP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOW. MONDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY TO LESS RAIN BEFORE UNTIL ANOTHER MORE PROGRESSIVE
UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAIN SINCE THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A THIRD
GOOD CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY OR IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  74  63  73 /  50 100  90  80
HOBART OK         59  71  61  75 /  50 100  60  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  76  64  77 /  40 100  90  70
GAGE OK           58  71  58  76 /  60 100  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     57  72  63  74 /  50 100  80  70
DURANT OK         62  78  66  75 /  50  60 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 230247
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
947 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS DOWN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE SATURATED AIRMASS WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE DRIZZLE...SO ADDED THAT TO WX GRIDS. STORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE INTO FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME SEVERE WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

AUSTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN SATURDAY MORNING AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRESENT ROUND OF RAIN MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO GIVE AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TO
THESE AREAS BEFORE LATE EVENING TODAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE, WILL BEGIN TO BRING RAIN INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
EARLY SATURDAY AND EXPAND AND MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER NEARLY
ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECTIVE UNTIL MONDAY. A LARGE AREA
OF 4 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THE MAJORITY OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO FALL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN RIVERS ALREADY NEAR OR IN FLOOD WILL RISE EVEN
MORE. HOWEVER, BEFORE THEN, FAIRLY STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL HELP TO
SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL
PROBABLY KEEP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOW. MONDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY TO LESS RAIN BEFORE UNTIL ANOTHER MORE PROGRESSIVE
UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAIN SINCE THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A THIRD
GOOD CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY OR IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  74  63  73 /  50 100  90  80
HOBART OK         59  71  61  75 /  50 100  60  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  76  64  77 /  40 100  90  70
GAGE OK           58  71  58  76 /  60 100  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     57  72  63  74 /  50 100  80  70
DURANT OK         62  78  66  75 /  50  60 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 230247
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
947 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS DOWN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE SATURATED AIRMASS WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE DRIZZLE...SO ADDED THAT TO WX GRIDS. STORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE INTO FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME SEVERE WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

AUSTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN SATURDAY MORNING AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRESENT ROUND OF RAIN MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO GIVE AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TO
THESE AREAS BEFORE LATE EVENING TODAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE, WILL BEGIN TO BRING RAIN INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
EARLY SATURDAY AND EXPAND AND MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER NEARLY
ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECTIVE UNTIL MONDAY. A LARGE AREA
OF 4 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THE MAJORITY OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO FALL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN RIVERS ALREADY NEAR OR IN FLOOD WILL RISE EVEN
MORE. HOWEVER, BEFORE THEN, FAIRLY STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL HELP TO
SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL
PROBABLY KEEP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOW. MONDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY TO LESS RAIN BEFORE UNTIL ANOTHER MORE PROGRESSIVE
UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAIN SINCE THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A THIRD
GOOD CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY OR IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  74  63  73 /  50 100  90  80
HOBART OK         59  71  61  75 /  50 100  60  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  76  64  77 /  40 100  90  70
GAGE OK           58  71  58  76 /  60 100  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     57  72  63  74 /  50 100  80  70
DURANT OK         62  78  66  75 /  50  60 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 230247
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
947 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS DOWN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE SATURATED AIRMASS WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE DRIZZLE...SO ADDED THAT TO WX GRIDS. STORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE INTO FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME SEVERE WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

AUSTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN SATURDAY MORNING AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRESENT ROUND OF RAIN MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO GIVE AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TO
THESE AREAS BEFORE LATE EVENING TODAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE, WILL BEGIN TO BRING RAIN INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
EARLY SATURDAY AND EXPAND AND MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER NEARLY
ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECTIVE UNTIL MONDAY. A LARGE AREA
OF 4 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THE MAJORITY OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO FALL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN RIVERS ALREADY NEAR OR IN FLOOD WILL RISE EVEN
MORE. HOWEVER, BEFORE THEN, FAIRLY STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL HELP TO
SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL
PROBABLY KEEP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOW. MONDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY TO LESS RAIN BEFORE UNTIL ANOTHER MORE PROGRESSIVE
UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAIN SINCE THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A THIRD
GOOD CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY OR IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  74  63  73 /  50 100  90  80
HOBART OK         59  71  61  75 /  50 100  60  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  76  64  77 /  40 100  90  70
GAGE OK           58  71  58  76 /  60 100  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     57  72  63  74 /  50 100  80  70
DURANT OK         62  78  66  75 /  50  60 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 230247
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
947 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS DOWN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE SATURATED AIRMASS WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE DRIZZLE...SO ADDED THAT TO WX GRIDS. STORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE INTO FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME SEVERE WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

AUSTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN SATURDAY MORNING AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRESENT ROUND OF RAIN MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO GIVE AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TO
THESE AREAS BEFORE LATE EVENING TODAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE, WILL BEGIN TO BRING RAIN INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
EARLY SATURDAY AND EXPAND AND MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER NEARLY
ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECTIVE UNTIL MONDAY. A LARGE AREA
OF 4 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THE MAJORITY OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO FALL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN RIVERS ALREADY NEAR OR IN FLOOD WILL RISE EVEN
MORE. HOWEVER, BEFORE THEN, FAIRLY STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL HELP TO
SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL
PROBABLY KEEP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOW. MONDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY TO LESS RAIN BEFORE UNTIL ANOTHER MORE PROGRESSIVE
UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAIN SINCE THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A THIRD
GOOD CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY OR IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  74  63  73 /  50 100  90  80
HOBART OK         59  71  61  75 /  50 100  60  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  76  64  77 /  40 100  90  70
GAGE OK           58  71  58  76 /  60 100  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     57  72  63  74 /  50 100  80  70
DURANT OK         62  78  66  75 /  50  60 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/25



000
FXUS64 KTSA 230231
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
931 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS
SE OK IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECREASING IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXPAND
INTO A LARGER PORTION OF NE OK AND PERHAPS NW
AR UNDER A PERSISTENT 25-30 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET.

HAVE TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES WHERE MADE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  76  66  74 /  50  70 100 100
FSM   58  80  67  76 /  60  30  90 100
MLC   59  78  67  73 /  70  50 100 100
BVO   55  73  65  73 /  60  80 100 100
FYV   55  76  64  72 /  50  40  90 100
BYV   55  77  64  75 /  30  30  70 100
MKO   58  77  66  73 /  50  60 100 100
MIO   55  75  65  73 /  50  70 100 100
F10   59  76  65  72 /  60  70 100 100
HHW   61  79  67  74 /  50  40 100 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....99






000
FXUS64 KTSA 230231
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
931 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS
SE OK IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECREASING IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXPAND
INTO A LARGER PORTION OF NE OK AND PERHAPS NW
AR UNDER A PERSISTENT 25-30 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET.

HAVE TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES WHERE MADE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  76  66  74 /  50  70 100 100
FSM   58  80  67  76 /  60  30  90 100
MLC   59  78  67  73 /  70  50 100 100
BVO   55  73  65  73 /  60  80 100 100
FYV   55  76  64  72 /  50  40  90 100
BYV   55  77  64  75 /  30  30  70 100
MKO   58  77  66  73 /  50  60 100 100
MIO   55  75  65  73 /  50  70 100 100
F10   59  76  65  72 /  60  70 100 100
HHW   61  79  67  74 /  50  40 100 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....99






000
FXUS64 KTSA 230231
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
931 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS
SE OK IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECREASING IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXPAND
INTO A LARGER PORTION OF NE OK AND PERHAPS NW
AR UNDER A PERSISTENT 25-30 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET.

HAVE TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES WHERE MADE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  76  66  74 /  50  70 100 100
FSM   58  80  67  76 /  60  30  90 100
MLC   59  78  67  73 /  70  50 100 100
BVO   55  73  65  73 /  60  80 100 100
FYV   55  76  64  72 /  50  40  90 100
BYV   55  77  64  75 /  30  30  70 100
MKO   58  77  66  73 /  50  60 100 100
MIO   55  75  65  73 /  50  70 100 100
F10   59  76  65  72 /  60  70 100 100
HHW   61  79  67  74 /  50  40 100 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....99






000
FXUS64 KTSA 230231
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
931 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS
SE OK IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECREASING IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXPAND
INTO A LARGER PORTION OF NE OK AND PERHAPS NW
AR UNDER A PERSISTENT 25-30 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET.

HAVE TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES WHERE MADE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  76  66  74 /  50  70 100 100
FSM   58  80  67  76 /  60  30  90 100
MLC   59  78  67  73 /  70  50 100 100
BVO   55  73  65  73 /  60  80 100 100
FYV   55  76  64  72 /  50  40  90 100
BYV   55  77  64  75 /  30  30  70 100
MKO   58  77  66  73 /  50  60 100 100
MIO   55  75  65  73 /  50  70 100 100
F10   59  76  65  72 /  60  70 100 100
HHW   61  79  67  74 /  50  40 100 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....99






000
FXUS64 KTSA 230231
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
931 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS
SE OK IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECREASING IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXPAND
INTO A LARGER PORTION OF NE OK AND PERHAPS NW
AR UNDER A PERSISTENT 25-30 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET.

HAVE TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES WHERE MADE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  76  66  74 /  50  70 100 100
FSM   58  80  67  76 /  60  30  90 100
MLC   59  78  67  73 /  70  50 100 100
BVO   55  73  65  73 /  60  80 100 100
FYV   55  76  64  72 /  50  40  90 100
BYV   55  77  64  75 /  30  30  70 100
MKO   58  77  66  73 /  50  60 100 100
MIO   55  75  65  73 /  50  70 100 100
F10   59  76  65  72 /  60  70 100 100
HHW   61  79  67  74 /  50  40 100 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....99





000
FXUS64 KOUN 222340
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN SATURDAY MORNING AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRESENT ROUND OF RAIN MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO GIVE AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TO
THESE AREAS BEFORE LATE EVENING TODAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE, WILL BEGIN TO BRING RAIN INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
EARLY SATURDAY AND EXPAND AND MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER NEARLY
ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECTIVE UNTIL MONDAY. A LARGE
AREA OF 4 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE MAJORITY OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO FALL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN RIVERS ALREADY NEAR OR IN FLOOD
WILL RISE EVEN MORE. HOWEVER, BEFORE THEN, FAIRLY STRONG WIND
SHEAR WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY KEEP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOW.
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY TO LESS RAIN BEFORE UNTIL ANOTHER
MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN SINCE THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. A THIRD GOOD CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY OR IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  74  63  73 /  40  90  90  80
HOBART OK         59  71  61  75 /  50  90  60  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  76  64  77 /  30  90  90  70
GAGE OK           56  71  58  76 /  60  90  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     56  72  63  74 /  60  90  80  70
DURANT OK         61  78  66  75 /  60  60  90  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 222340
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN SATURDAY MORNING AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRESENT ROUND OF RAIN MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO GIVE AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TO
THESE AREAS BEFORE LATE EVENING TODAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE, WILL BEGIN TO BRING RAIN INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
EARLY SATURDAY AND EXPAND AND MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER NEARLY
ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECTIVE UNTIL MONDAY. A LARGE
AREA OF 4 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE MAJORITY OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO FALL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN RIVERS ALREADY NEAR OR IN FLOOD
WILL RISE EVEN MORE. HOWEVER, BEFORE THEN, FAIRLY STRONG WIND
SHEAR WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY KEEP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOW.
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY TO LESS RAIN BEFORE UNTIL ANOTHER
MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN SINCE THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. A THIRD GOOD CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY OR IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  74  63  73 /  40  90  90  80
HOBART OK         59  71  61  75 /  50  90  60  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  76  64  77 /  30  90  90  70
GAGE OK           56  71  58  76 /  60  90  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     56  72  63  74 /  60  90  80  70
DURANT OK         61  78  66  75 /  60  60  90  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 222340
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN SATURDAY MORNING AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRESENT ROUND OF RAIN MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO GIVE AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TO
THESE AREAS BEFORE LATE EVENING TODAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE, WILL BEGIN TO BRING RAIN INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
EARLY SATURDAY AND EXPAND AND MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER NEARLY
ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECTIVE UNTIL MONDAY. A LARGE
AREA OF 4 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE MAJORITY OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO FALL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN RIVERS ALREADY NEAR OR IN FLOOD
WILL RISE EVEN MORE. HOWEVER, BEFORE THEN, FAIRLY STRONG WIND
SHEAR WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY KEEP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOW.
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY TO LESS RAIN BEFORE UNTIL ANOTHER
MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN SINCE THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. A THIRD GOOD CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY OR IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  74  63  73 /  40  90  90  80
HOBART OK         59  71  61  75 /  50  90  60  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  76  64  77 /  30  90  90  70
GAGE OK           56  71  58  76 /  60  90  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     56  72  63  74 /  60  90  80  70
DURANT OK         61  78  66  75 /  60  60  90  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 222340
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN SATURDAY MORNING AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRESENT ROUND OF RAIN MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO GIVE AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TO
THESE AREAS BEFORE LATE EVENING TODAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE, WILL BEGIN TO BRING RAIN INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
EARLY SATURDAY AND EXPAND AND MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER NEARLY
ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECTIVE UNTIL MONDAY. A LARGE
AREA OF 4 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE MAJORITY OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO FALL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN RIVERS ALREADY NEAR OR IN FLOOD
WILL RISE EVEN MORE. HOWEVER, BEFORE THEN, FAIRLY STRONG WIND
SHEAR WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY KEEP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOW.
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY TO LESS RAIN BEFORE UNTIL ANOTHER
MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN SINCE THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. A THIRD GOOD CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY OR IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  74  63  73 /  40  90  90  80
HOBART OK         59  71  61  75 /  50  90  60  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  76  64  77 /  30  90  90  70
GAGE OK           56  71  58  76 /  60  90  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     56  72  63  74 /  60  90  80  70
DURANT OK         61  78  66  75 /  60  60  90  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/25/25




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