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000
FXUS64 KTSA 251557
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1057 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK. MINOR CHANGES TO KEEP HOURLY GRIDS CURRENT.
GW


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS YIELDING PERIODIC MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SE OK / WESTERN AR THIS MORNING. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH A TREND TOWARD
VFR FOR ALL SITES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HEAT AND HUMIDITY IMPACTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...WORSENING
OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER MUCH ANTICIPATED COOLDOWN
AFFECTS OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. FOR TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY NEAR 105
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN
TODAY TO WARRANT CONVERTING THE GOING EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO A
WARNING AT THIS POINT...BUT KNOWING THAT IT WILL BE CLOSE AND WELL
WORTH ENHANCED PUBLIC AWARENESS...WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY WEST
OF A LINE FROM NOWATA TO OKMULGEE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR TULSA...OSAGE...AND PAWNEE
COUNTIES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
HEAT ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY...WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY OVER THE
WEEKEND...INCLUDING IN COUNTIES THAT ARE NOT COVERED BY TODAY/S
ADVISORY....AS CONDITIONS WORSEN.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA SOMETIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING SUNDAY...AND ALSO NEAR THE RED RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS...WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES
PROBABLE FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOMEWHERE NEAR TO SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 DURING THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH
COULD KEEP PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RAIN EVENTUALLY SETS UP. HAVE
GONE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE ON THE COOL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77 100  79 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   93  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   93  73  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   98  72 101  74 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   89  69  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   90  71  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   94  72  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   94  74  99  74 /   0   0  10  10
F10   95  73  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   93  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ059-
     OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....05





000
FXUS64 KTSA 251557
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1057 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK. MINOR CHANGES TO KEEP HOURLY GRIDS CURRENT.
GW


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS YIELDING PERIODIC MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SE OK / WESTERN AR THIS MORNING. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH A TREND TOWARD
VFR FOR ALL SITES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HEAT AND HUMIDITY IMPACTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...WORSENING
OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER MUCH ANTICIPATED COOLDOWN
AFFECTS OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. FOR TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY NEAR 105
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN
TODAY TO WARRANT CONVERTING THE GOING EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO A
WARNING AT THIS POINT...BUT KNOWING THAT IT WILL BE CLOSE AND WELL
WORTH ENHANCED PUBLIC AWARENESS...WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY WEST
OF A LINE FROM NOWATA TO OKMULGEE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR TULSA...OSAGE...AND PAWNEE
COUNTIES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
HEAT ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY...WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY OVER THE
WEEKEND...INCLUDING IN COUNTIES THAT ARE NOT COVERED BY TODAY/S
ADVISORY....AS CONDITIONS WORSEN.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA SOMETIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING SUNDAY...AND ALSO NEAR THE RED RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS...WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES
PROBABLE FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOMEWHERE NEAR TO SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 DURING THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH
COULD KEEP PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RAIN EVENTUALLY SETS UP. HAVE
GONE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE ON THE COOL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77 100  79 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   93  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   93  73  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   98  72 101  74 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   89  69  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   90  71  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   94  72  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   94  74  99  74 /   0   0  10  10
F10   95  73  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   93  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ059-
     OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....05





000
FXUS64 KTSA 251557
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1057 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK. MINOR CHANGES TO KEEP HOURLY GRIDS CURRENT.
GW


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS YIELDING PERIODIC MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SE OK / WESTERN AR THIS MORNING. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH A TREND TOWARD
VFR FOR ALL SITES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HEAT AND HUMIDITY IMPACTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...WORSENING
OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER MUCH ANTICIPATED COOLDOWN
AFFECTS OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. FOR TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY NEAR 105
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN
TODAY TO WARRANT CONVERTING THE GOING EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO A
WARNING AT THIS POINT...BUT KNOWING THAT IT WILL BE CLOSE AND WELL
WORTH ENHANCED PUBLIC AWARENESS...WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY WEST
OF A LINE FROM NOWATA TO OKMULGEE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR TULSA...OSAGE...AND PAWNEE
COUNTIES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
HEAT ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY...WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY OVER THE
WEEKEND...INCLUDING IN COUNTIES THAT ARE NOT COVERED BY TODAY/S
ADVISORY....AS CONDITIONS WORSEN.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA SOMETIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING SUNDAY...AND ALSO NEAR THE RED RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS...WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES
PROBABLE FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOMEWHERE NEAR TO SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 DURING THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH
COULD KEEP PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RAIN EVENTUALLY SETS UP. HAVE
GONE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE ON THE COOL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77 100  79 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   93  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   93  73  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   98  72 101  74 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   89  69  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   90  71  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   94  72  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   94  74  99  74 /   0   0  10  10
F10   95  73  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   93  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ059-
     OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....05





000
FXUS64 KTSA 251557
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1057 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK. MINOR CHANGES TO KEEP HOURLY GRIDS CURRENT.
GW


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS YIELDING PERIODIC MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SE OK / WESTERN AR THIS MORNING. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH A TREND TOWARD
VFR FOR ALL SITES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HEAT AND HUMIDITY IMPACTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...WORSENING
OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER MUCH ANTICIPATED COOLDOWN
AFFECTS OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. FOR TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY NEAR 105
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN
TODAY TO WARRANT CONVERTING THE GOING EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO A
WARNING AT THIS POINT...BUT KNOWING THAT IT WILL BE CLOSE AND WELL
WORTH ENHANCED PUBLIC AWARENESS...WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY WEST
OF A LINE FROM NOWATA TO OKMULGEE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR TULSA...OSAGE...AND PAWNEE
COUNTIES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
HEAT ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY...WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY OVER THE
WEEKEND...INCLUDING IN COUNTIES THAT ARE NOT COVERED BY TODAY/S
ADVISORY....AS CONDITIONS WORSEN.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA SOMETIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING SUNDAY...AND ALSO NEAR THE RED RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS...WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES
PROBABLE FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOMEWHERE NEAR TO SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 DURING THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH
COULD KEEP PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RAIN EVENTUALLY SETS UP. HAVE
GONE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE ON THE COOL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77 100  79 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   93  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   93  73  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   98  72 101  74 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   89  69  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   90  71  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   94  72  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   94  74  99  74 /   0   0  10  10
F10   95  73  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   93  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ059-
     OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....05




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOUN 251128
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
625 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
RETURNING. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TEMPS IN CENTRAL AND SE
SECTIONS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S WITH READINGS AOA
THE CENTURY MARK IN THE WEST. TEMPS ON SATURDAY MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF APCHG FRONT.
ALTHOUGH HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL...WILL CONTINUE WITH
HEAT ADVY AS IS FOR TODAY AND EXTEND IT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HOT
TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

WEAK FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS
IN THAT TIME FRAME AS FRONT PUSHES IN. PRECIP CHANCES WILL SPREAD
SOUTH INTO MONDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES SWD. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NWLY UPPER FLOW
PATTERN DEVELOPING. BEST CHANCES EXPECTED AROUND MIDWEEK AS S/W
TROUGH DROPS SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  98  74 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        100  73 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  74 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK          103  73 104  70 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     97  77 103  75 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75 102  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ005>008-010>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

06/02




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251128
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
625 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
RETURNING. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TEMPS IN CENTRAL AND SE
SECTIONS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S WITH READINGS AOA
THE CENTURY MARK IN THE WEST. TEMPS ON SATURDAY MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF APCHG FRONT.
ALTHOUGH HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL...WILL CONTINUE WITH
HEAT ADVY AS IS FOR TODAY AND EXTEND IT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HOT
TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

WEAK FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS
IN THAT TIME FRAME AS FRONT PUSHES IN. PRECIP CHANCES WILL SPREAD
SOUTH INTO MONDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES SWD. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NWLY UPPER FLOW
PATTERN DEVELOPING. BEST CHANCES EXPECTED AROUND MIDWEEK AS S/W
TROUGH DROPS SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  98  74 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        100  73 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  74 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK          103  73 104  70 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     97  77 103  75 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75 102  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ005>008-010>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

06/02




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251128
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
625 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
RETURNING. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TEMPS IN CENTRAL AND SE
SECTIONS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S WITH READINGS AOA
THE CENTURY MARK IN THE WEST. TEMPS ON SATURDAY MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF APCHG FRONT.
ALTHOUGH HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL...WILL CONTINUE WITH
HEAT ADVY AS IS FOR TODAY AND EXTEND IT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HOT
TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

WEAK FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS
IN THAT TIME FRAME AS FRONT PUSHES IN. PRECIP CHANCES WILL SPREAD
SOUTH INTO MONDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES SWD. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NWLY UPPER FLOW
PATTERN DEVELOPING. BEST CHANCES EXPECTED AROUND MIDWEEK AS S/W
TROUGH DROPS SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  98  74 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        100  73 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  74 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK          103  73 104  70 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     97  77 103  75 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75 102  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ005>008-010>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

06/02




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251128
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
625 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
RETURNING. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TEMPS IN CENTRAL AND SE
SECTIONS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S WITH READINGS AOA
THE CENTURY MARK IN THE WEST. TEMPS ON SATURDAY MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF APCHG FRONT.
ALTHOUGH HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL...WILL CONTINUE WITH
HEAT ADVY AS IS FOR TODAY AND EXTEND IT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HOT
TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

WEAK FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS
IN THAT TIME FRAME AS FRONT PUSHES IN. PRECIP CHANCES WILL SPREAD
SOUTH INTO MONDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES SWD. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NWLY UPPER FLOW
PATTERN DEVELOPING. BEST CHANCES EXPECTED AROUND MIDWEEK AS S/W
TROUGH DROPS SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  98  74 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        100  73 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  74 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK          103  73 104  70 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     97  77 103  75 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75 102  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ005>008-010>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

06/02




000
FXUS64 KTSA 251033
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
533 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS YIELDING PERIODIC MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SE OK / WESTERN AR THIS MORNING. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH A TREND TOWARD
VFR FOR ALL SITES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HEAT AND HUMIDITY IMPACTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...WORSENING
OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER MUCH ANTICIPATED COOLDOWN
AFFECTS OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. FOR TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY NEAR 105
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN
TODAY TO WARRANT CONVERTING THE GOING EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO A
WARNING AT THIS POINT...BUT KNOWING THAT IT WILL BE CLOSE AND WELL
WORTH ENHANCED PUBLIC AWARENESS...WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY WEST
OF A LINE FROM NOWATA TO OKMULGEE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR TULSA...OSAGE...AND PAWNEE
COUNTIES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
HEAT ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY...WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY OVER THE
WEEKEND...INCLUDING IN COUNTIES THAT ARE NOT COVERED BY TODAY/S
ADVISORY....AS CONDITIONS WORSEN.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA SOMETIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING SUNDAY...AND ALSO NEAR THE RED RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS...WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES
PROBABLE FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOMEWHERE NEAR TO SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 DURING THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH
COULD KEEP PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RAIN EVENTUALLY SETS UP. HAVE
GONE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE ON THE COOL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77 100  79 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   93  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   93  73  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   98  72 101  74 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   89  69  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   90  71  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   94  72  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   94  74  99  74 /   0   0  10  10
F10   95  73  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   93  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 251033
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
533 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS YIELDING PERIODIC MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SE OK / WESTERN AR THIS MORNING. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH A TREND TOWARD
VFR FOR ALL SITES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HEAT AND HUMIDITY IMPACTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...WORSENING
OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER MUCH ANTICIPATED COOLDOWN
AFFECTS OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. FOR TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY NEAR 105
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN
TODAY TO WARRANT CONVERTING THE GOING EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO A
WARNING AT THIS POINT...BUT KNOWING THAT IT WILL BE CLOSE AND WELL
WORTH ENHANCED PUBLIC AWARENESS...WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY WEST
OF A LINE FROM NOWATA TO OKMULGEE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR TULSA...OSAGE...AND PAWNEE
COUNTIES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
HEAT ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY...WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY OVER THE
WEEKEND...INCLUDING IN COUNTIES THAT ARE NOT COVERED BY TODAY/S
ADVISORY....AS CONDITIONS WORSEN.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA SOMETIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING SUNDAY...AND ALSO NEAR THE RED RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS...WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES
PROBABLE FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOMEWHERE NEAR TO SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 DURING THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH
COULD KEEP PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RAIN EVENTUALLY SETS UP. HAVE
GONE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE ON THE COOL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77 100  79 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   93  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   93  73  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   98  72 101  74 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   89  69  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   90  71  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   94  72  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   94  74  99  74 /   0   0  10  10
F10   95  73  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   93  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 251033
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
533 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS YIELDING PERIODIC MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SE OK / WESTERN AR THIS MORNING. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH A TREND TOWARD
VFR FOR ALL SITES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HEAT AND HUMIDITY IMPACTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...WORSENING
OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER MUCH ANTICIPATED COOLDOWN
AFFECTS OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. FOR TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY NEAR 105
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN
TODAY TO WARRANT CONVERTING THE GOING EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO A
WARNING AT THIS POINT...BUT KNOWING THAT IT WILL BE CLOSE AND WELL
WORTH ENHANCED PUBLIC AWARENESS...WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY WEST
OF A LINE FROM NOWATA TO OKMULGEE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR TULSA...OSAGE...AND PAWNEE
COUNTIES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
HEAT ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY...WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY OVER THE
WEEKEND...INCLUDING IN COUNTIES THAT ARE NOT COVERED BY TODAY/S
ADVISORY....AS CONDITIONS WORSEN.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA SOMETIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING SUNDAY...AND ALSO NEAR THE RED RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS...WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES
PROBABLE FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOMEWHERE NEAR TO SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 DURING THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH
COULD KEEP PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RAIN EVENTUALLY SETS UP. HAVE
GONE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE ON THE COOL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77 100  79 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   93  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   93  73  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   98  72 101  74 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   89  69  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   90  71  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   94  72  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   94  74  99  74 /   0   0  10  10
F10   95  73  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   93  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 251033
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
533 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS YIELDING PERIODIC MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SE OK / WESTERN AR THIS MORNING. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH A TREND TOWARD
VFR FOR ALL SITES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HEAT AND HUMIDITY IMPACTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...WORSENING
OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER MUCH ANTICIPATED COOLDOWN
AFFECTS OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. FOR TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY NEAR 105
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN
TODAY TO WARRANT CONVERTING THE GOING EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO A
WARNING AT THIS POINT...BUT KNOWING THAT IT WILL BE CLOSE AND WELL
WORTH ENHANCED PUBLIC AWARENESS...WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY WEST
OF A LINE FROM NOWATA TO OKMULGEE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR TULSA...OSAGE...AND PAWNEE
COUNTIES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
HEAT ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY...WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY OVER THE
WEEKEND...INCLUDING IN COUNTIES THAT ARE NOT COVERED BY TODAY/S
ADVISORY....AS CONDITIONS WORSEN.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA SOMETIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING SUNDAY...AND ALSO NEAR THE RED RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS...WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES
PROBABLE FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOMEWHERE NEAR TO SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 DURING THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH
COULD KEEP PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RAIN EVENTUALLY SETS UP. HAVE
GONE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE ON THE COOL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77 100  79 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   93  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   93  73  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   98  72 101  74 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   89  69  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   90  71  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   94  72  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   94  74  99  74 /   0   0  10  10
F10   95  73  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   93  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KOUN 250905
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
405 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
RETURNING. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TEMPS IN CENTRAL AND SE
SECTIONS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S WITH READINGS AOA
THE CENTURY MARK IN THE WEST. TEMPS ON SATURDAY MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF APCHG FRONT.
ALTHOUGH HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL...WILL CONTINUE WITH
HEAT ADVY AS IS FOR TODAY AND EXTEND IT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HOT
TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

WEAK FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS
IN THAT TIME FRAME AS FRONT PUSHES IN. PRECIP CHANCES WILL SPREAD
SOUTH INTO MONDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES SWD. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NWLY UPPER FLOW
PATTERN DEVELOPING. BEST CHANCES EXPECTED AROUND MIDWEEK AS S/W
TROUGH DROPS SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  98  74 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        100  73 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  74 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK          103  73 104  70 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     97  77 103  75 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75 102  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ005>008-010>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

06/02



000
FXUS64 KOUN 250905
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
405 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
RETURNING. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TEMPS IN CENTRAL AND SE
SECTIONS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S WITH READINGS AOA
THE CENTURY MARK IN THE WEST. TEMPS ON SATURDAY MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF APCHG FRONT.
ALTHOUGH HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL...WILL CONTINUE WITH
HEAT ADVY AS IS FOR TODAY AND EXTEND IT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HOT
TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

WEAK FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS
IN THAT TIME FRAME AS FRONT PUSHES IN. PRECIP CHANCES WILL SPREAD
SOUTH INTO MONDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES SWD. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NWLY UPPER FLOW
PATTERN DEVELOPING. BEST CHANCES EXPECTED AROUND MIDWEEK AS S/W
TROUGH DROPS SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  98  74 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        100  73 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  74 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK          103  73 104  70 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     97  77 103  75 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75 102  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ005>008-010>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

06/02




000
FXUS64 KTSA 250756
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
256 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HEAT AND HUMIDITY IMPACTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...WORSENING
OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER MUCH ANTICIPATED COOLDOWN
AFFECTS OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. FOR TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY NEAR 105
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN
TODAY TO WARRANT CONVERTING THE GOING EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO A
WARNING AT THIS POINT...BUT KNOWING THAT IT WILL BE CLOSE AND WELL
WORTH ENHANCED PUBLIC AWARENESS...WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY WEST
OF A LINE FROM NOWATA TO OKMULGEE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR TULSA...OSAGE...AND PAWNEE
COUNTIES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
HEAT ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY...WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY OVER THE
WEEKEND...INCLUDING IN COUNTIES THAT ARE NOT COVERED BY TODAY/S
ADVISORY....AS CONDITIONS WORSEN.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA SOMETIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING SUNDAY...AND ALSO NEAR THE RED RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS...WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES
PROBABLE FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOMEWHERE NEAR TO SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 DURING THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH
COULD KEEP PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RAIN EVENTUALLY SETS UP. HAVE
GONE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE ON THE COOL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77 100  79 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   93  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   93  73  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   98  72 101  74 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   89  69  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   90  71  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   94  72  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   94  74  99  74 /   0   0  10  10
F10   95  73  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   93  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 250756
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
256 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HEAT AND HUMIDITY IMPACTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...WORSENING
OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER MUCH ANTICIPATED COOLDOWN
AFFECTS OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. FOR TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY NEAR 105
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN
TODAY TO WARRANT CONVERTING THE GOING EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO A
WARNING AT THIS POINT...BUT KNOWING THAT IT WILL BE CLOSE AND WELL
WORTH ENHANCED PUBLIC AWARENESS...WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY WEST
OF A LINE FROM NOWATA TO OKMULGEE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR TULSA...OSAGE...AND PAWNEE
COUNTIES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
HEAT ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY...WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY OVER THE
WEEKEND...INCLUDING IN COUNTIES THAT ARE NOT COVERED BY TODAY/S
ADVISORY....AS CONDITIONS WORSEN.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA SOMETIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING SUNDAY...AND ALSO NEAR THE RED RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS...WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES
PROBABLE FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOMEWHERE NEAR TO SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 DURING THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH
COULD KEEP PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RAIN EVENTUALLY SETS UP. HAVE
GONE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE ON THE COOL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77 100  79 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   93  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   93  73  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   98  72 101  74 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   89  69  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   90  71  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   94  72  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   94  74  99  74 /   0   0  10  10
F10   95  73  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   93  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 250756
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
256 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HEAT AND HUMIDITY IMPACTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...WORSENING
OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER MUCH ANTICIPATED COOLDOWN
AFFECTS OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. FOR TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY NEAR 105
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN
TODAY TO WARRANT CONVERTING THE GOING EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO A
WARNING AT THIS POINT...BUT KNOWING THAT IT WILL BE CLOSE AND WELL
WORTH ENHANCED PUBLIC AWARENESS...WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY WEST
OF A LINE FROM NOWATA TO OKMULGEE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR TULSA...OSAGE...AND PAWNEE
COUNTIES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
HEAT ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY...WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY OVER THE
WEEKEND...INCLUDING IN COUNTIES THAT ARE NOT COVERED BY TODAY/S
ADVISORY....AS CONDITIONS WORSEN.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA SOMETIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING SUNDAY...AND ALSO NEAR THE RED RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS...WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES
PROBABLE FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOMEWHERE NEAR TO SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 DURING THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH
COULD KEEP PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RAIN EVENTUALLY SETS UP. HAVE
GONE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE ON THE COOL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77 100  79 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   93  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   93  73  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   98  72 101  74 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   89  69  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   90  71  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   94  72  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   94  74  99  74 /   0   0  10  10
F10   95  73  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   93  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 250756
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
256 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HEAT AND HUMIDITY IMPACTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...WORSENING
OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER MUCH ANTICIPATED COOLDOWN
AFFECTS OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. FOR TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY NEAR 105
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN
TODAY TO WARRANT CONVERTING THE GOING EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO A
WARNING AT THIS POINT...BUT KNOWING THAT IT WILL BE CLOSE AND WELL
WORTH ENHANCED PUBLIC AWARENESS...WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY WEST
OF A LINE FROM NOWATA TO OKMULGEE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR TULSA...OSAGE...AND PAWNEE
COUNTIES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
HEAT ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY...WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY OVER THE
WEEKEND...INCLUDING IN COUNTIES THAT ARE NOT COVERED BY TODAY/S
ADVISORY....AS CONDITIONS WORSEN.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA SOMETIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING SUNDAY...AND ALSO NEAR THE RED RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS...WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES
PROBABLE FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOMEWHERE NEAR TO SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 DURING THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH
COULD KEEP PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RAIN EVENTUALLY SETS UP. HAVE
GONE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE ON THE COOL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77 100  79 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   93  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   93  73  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   98  72 101  74 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   89  69  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   90  71  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   94  72  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   94  74  99  74 /   0   0  10  10
F10   95  73  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   93  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 250456
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1156 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT...WHILE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE LOW CEILINGS OVER NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT...WITH FEW TO SCATTERED MID
CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD ALSO BE COMMON DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
LATE THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA...SHIFTING WINDS MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH
BY FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING
A LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
BY EARLY MORNING. THUS...WILL TWEAK SKY AND WINDS GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY AND BUMP UP LOW TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  97  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   70  93  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   69  93  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   68  98  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   63  89  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   63  90  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   69  94  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   69  94  74  99 /   0   0   0  10
F10   71  95  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   70  93  73  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 250456
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1156 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT...WHILE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE LOW CEILINGS OVER NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT...WITH FEW TO SCATTERED MID
CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD ALSO BE COMMON DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
LATE THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA...SHIFTING WINDS MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH
BY FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING
A LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
BY EARLY MORNING. THUS...WILL TWEAK SKY AND WINDS GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY AND BUMP UP LOW TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  97  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   70  93  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   69  93  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   68  98  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   63  89  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   63  90  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   69  94  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   69  94  74  99 /   0   0   0  10
F10   71  95  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   70  93  73  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 250456
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1156 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT...WHILE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE LOW CEILINGS OVER NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT...WITH FEW TO SCATTERED MID
CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD ALSO BE COMMON DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
LATE THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA...SHIFTING WINDS MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH
BY FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING
A LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
BY EARLY MORNING. THUS...WILL TWEAK SKY AND WINDS GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY AND BUMP UP LOW TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  97  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   70  93  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   69  93  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   68  98  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   63  89  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   63  90  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   69  94  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   69  94  74  99 /   0   0   0  10
F10   71  95  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   70  93  73  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 250456
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1156 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT...WHILE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE LOW CEILINGS OVER NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT...WITH FEW TO SCATTERED MID
CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD ALSO BE COMMON DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
LATE THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA...SHIFTING WINDS MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH
BY FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING
A LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
BY EARLY MORNING. THUS...WILL TWEAK SKY AND WINDS GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY AND BUMP UP LOW TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  97  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   70  93  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   69  93  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   68  98  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   63  89  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   63  90  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   69  94  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   69  94  74  99 /   0   0   0  10
F10   71  95  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   70  93  73  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KOUN 250351
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1051 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
25/06Z TAFS...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY S/SW TOMORROW WITH DIURNAL BACKING AFTER
00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         74 101  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 101  74 101 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 103  73 104 /  10   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  99  76 103 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         74  99  74 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ005>008-010>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

25/11/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 250351
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1051 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
25/06Z TAFS...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY S/SW TOMORROW WITH DIURNAL BACKING AFTER
00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         74 101  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 101  74 101 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 103  73 104 /  10   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  99  76 103 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         74  99  74 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ005>008-010>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

25/11/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 250351
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1051 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
25/06Z TAFS...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY S/SW TOMORROW WITH DIURNAL BACKING AFTER
00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         74 101  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 101  74 101 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 103  73 104 /  10   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  99  76 103 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         74  99  74 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ005>008-010>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

25/11/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 250351
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1051 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
25/06Z TAFS...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY S/SW TOMORROW WITH DIURNAL BACKING AFTER
00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         74 101  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 101  74 101 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 103  73 104 /  10   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  99  76 103 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         74  99  74 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ005>008-010>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

25/11/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 250242 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
942 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FEW ISOLATED STORMS THAT OCCURRED IN NW OK LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED AND NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS BUT OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED INTO A FEW MORE COUNTIES ACROSS
NORTHERN OK EARLIER THIS EVENING TO BETTER COORDINATE WITH
NEIGHBORS AND WHERE FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND THE
105 DEGREE RANGE FRIDAY.

UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

AVIATION...
25/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTY S/SW WIND
AFTER 14Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS PLACED ON HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND COOLER TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY... TEMPS ARE MUCH COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY... BUT
DPTS CONTINUE TO HANG IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S... WITH HEAT
INDICES HOVERING IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S THIS AFTN. WV ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED FROM THE NRN GREAT PLAINS... SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK
SHORT WAVE AND A REGION OF SFC CONVERGENCE HAS RESULTED IN A CU
FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN OK TO THE TX ESCARPMENT. CURRENT (2015Z)
RADAR HAS A LONE UPDRAFT TRYING IN ROGER MILLS COUNTY. SO... WILL
NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE AS MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS... BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS
MAY DEVELOP WITH ANY STOUT UPDRAFT.

FOR FRIDAY... KEPT THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE... AS
HUMIDITIES AND HIGHS WILL KEEP AFTN HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. INCLUDED NORTH CENTRAL OK BACK IN THE
ADVISORY AS HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100S WITH HEAT INDICES NEARING
105 ONCE AGAIN. RH VALUES WILL DROP SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN HOT. HOWEVER... WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY
FOR THE MOMENT AS HEAT INDICES WILL BE BORDERLINE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR NEXT WEEK... A WEAK FRONT WILL START TO PUSH INTO NW OK LATE SAT
INTO SUN... KEPT LOW CHANCES GOING OVERNIGHT SAT THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS FAR NRN OK AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN. MID/LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
ATTEMPTS TO STALL OUT THE FRONT THROUGH MON... BEFORE A STRONGER
SHORT WAVE/FRONT COMBO SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION INTO WED. IN
RESPONSE... THERE WILL BE NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP... WITH A
COOL DOWN BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S BY
WED.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         74 101  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 101  74 101 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 103  73 104 /  20   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  99  76 103 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         74  99  74 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ005>008-010>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 250242 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
942 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FEW ISOLATED STORMS THAT OCCURRED IN NW OK LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED AND NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS BUT OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED INTO A FEW MORE COUNTIES ACROSS
NORTHERN OK EARLIER THIS EVENING TO BETTER COORDINATE WITH
NEIGHBORS AND WHERE FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND THE
105 DEGREE RANGE FRIDAY.

UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

AVIATION...
25/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTY S/SW WIND
AFTER 14Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS PLACED ON HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND COOLER TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY... TEMPS ARE MUCH COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY... BUT
DPTS CONTINUE TO HANG IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S... WITH HEAT
INDICES HOVERING IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S THIS AFTN. WV ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED FROM THE NRN GREAT PLAINS... SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK
SHORT WAVE AND A REGION OF SFC CONVERGENCE HAS RESULTED IN A CU
FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN OK TO THE TX ESCARPMENT. CURRENT (2015Z)
RADAR HAS A LONE UPDRAFT TRYING IN ROGER MILLS COUNTY. SO... WILL
NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE AS MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS... BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS
MAY DEVELOP WITH ANY STOUT UPDRAFT.

FOR FRIDAY... KEPT THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE... AS
HUMIDITIES AND HIGHS WILL KEEP AFTN HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. INCLUDED NORTH CENTRAL OK BACK IN THE
ADVISORY AS HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100S WITH HEAT INDICES NEARING
105 ONCE AGAIN. RH VALUES WILL DROP SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN HOT. HOWEVER... WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY
FOR THE MOMENT AS HEAT INDICES WILL BE BORDERLINE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR NEXT WEEK... A WEAK FRONT WILL START TO PUSH INTO NW OK LATE SAT
INTO SUN... KEPT LOW CHANCES GOING OVERNIGHT SAT THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS FAR NRN OK AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN. MID/LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
ATTEMPTS TO STALL OUT THE FRONT THROUGH MON... BEFORE A STRONGER
SHORT WAVE/FRONT COMBO SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION INTO WED. IN
RESPONSE... THERE WILL BE NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP... WITH A
COOL DOWN BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S BY
WED.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         74 101  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 101  74 101 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 103  73 104 /  20   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  99  76 103 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         74  99  74 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ005>008-010>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 250242 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
942 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FEW ISOLATED STORMS THAT OCCURRED IN NW OK LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED AND NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS BUT OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED INTO A FEW MORE COUNTIES ACROSS
NORTHERN OK EARLIER THIS EVENING TO BETTER COORDINATE WITH
NEIGHBORS AND WHERE FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND THE
105 DEGREE RANGE FRIDAY.

UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

AVIATION...
25/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTY S/SW WIND
AFTER 14Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS PLACED ON HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND COOLER TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY... TEMPS ARE MUCH COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY... BUT
DPTS CONTINUE TO HANG IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S... WITH HEAT
INDICES HOVERING IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S THIS AFTN. WV ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED FROM THE NRN GREAT PLAINS... SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK
SHORT WAVE AND A REGION OF SFC CONVERGENCE HAS RESULTED IN A CU
FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN OK TO THE TX ESCARPMENT. CURRENT (2015Z)
RADAR HAS A LONE UPDRAFT TRYING IN ROGER MILLS COUNTY. SO... WILL
NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE AS MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS... BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS
MAY DEVELOP WITH ANY STOUT UPDRAFT.

FOR FRIDAY... KEPT THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE... AS
HUMIDITIES AND HIGHS WILL KEEP AFTN HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. INCLUDED NORTH CENTRAL OK BACK IN THE
ADVISORY AS HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100S WITH HEAT INDICES NEARING
105 ONCE AGAIN. RH VALUES WILL DROP SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN HOT. HOWEVER... WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY
FOR THE MOMENT AS HEAT INDICES WILL BE BORDERLINE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR NEXT WEEK... A WEAK FRONT WILL START TO PUSH INTO NW OK LATE SAT
INTO SUN... KEPT LOW CHANCES GOING OVERNIGHT SAT THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS FAR NRN OK AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN. MID/LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
ATTEMPTS TO STALL OUT THE FRONT THROUGH MON... BEFORE A STRONGER
SHORT WAVE/FRONT COMBO SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION INTO WED. IN
RESPONSE... THERE WILL BE NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP... WITH A
COOL DOWN BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S BY
WED.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         74 101  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 101  74 101 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 103  73 104 /  20   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  99  76 103 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         74  99  74 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ005>008-010>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 250242 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
942 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FEW ISOLATED STORMS THAT OCCURRED IN NW OK LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED AND NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS BUT OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED INTO A FEW MORE COUNTIES ACROSS
NORTHERN OK EARLIER THIS EVENING TO BETTER COORDINATE WITH
NEIGHBORS AND WHERE FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND THE
105 DEGREE RANGE FRIDAY.

UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

AVIATION...
25/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTY S/SW WIND
AFTER 14Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS PLACED ON HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND COOLER TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY... TEMPS ARE MUCH COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY... BUT
DPTS CONTINUE TO HANG IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S... WITH HEAT
INDICES HOVERING IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S THIS AFTN. WV ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED FROM THE NRN GREAT PLAINS... SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK
SHORT WAVE AND A REGION OF SFC CONVERGENCE HAS RESULTED IN A CU
FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN OK TO THE TX ESCARPMENT. CURRENT (2015Z)
RADAR HAS A LONE UPDRAFT TRYING IN ROGER MILLS COUNTY. SO... WILL
NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE AS MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS... BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS
MAY DEVELOP WITH ANY STOUT UPDRAFT.

FOR FRIDAY... KEPT THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE... AS
HUMIDITIES AND HIGHS WILL KEEP AFTN HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. INCLUDED NORTH CENTRAL OK BACK IN THE
ADVISORY AS HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100S WITH HEAT INDICES NEARING
105 ONCE AGAIN. RH VALUES WILL DROP SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN HOT. HOWEVER... WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY
FOR THE MOMENT AS HEAT INDICES WILL BE BORDERLINE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR NEXT WEEK... A WEAK FRONT WILL START TO PUSH INTO NW OK LATE SAT
INTO SUN... KEPT LOW CHANCES GOING OVERNIGHT SAT THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS FAR NRN OK AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN. MID/LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
ATTEMPTS TO STALL OUT THE FRONT THROUGH MON... BEFORE A STRONGER
SHORT WAVE/FRONT COMBO SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION INTO WED. IN
RESPONSE... THERE WILL BE NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP... WITH A
COOL DOWN BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S BY
WED.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         74 101  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 101  74 101 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 103  73 104 /  20   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  99  76 103 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         74  99  74 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ005>008-010>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 250241
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
941 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
LATE THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA...SHIFTING WINDS MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH
BY FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING
A LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
BY EARLY MORNING. THUS...WILL TWEAK SKY AND WINDS GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY AND BUMP UP LOW TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  98  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   70  95  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   69  94  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   68  98  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   63  91  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   63  92  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   69  94  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   69  94  74  98 /   0   0   0  10
F10   71  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   70  94  73  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....05






000
FXUS64 KOUN 242343
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
643 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
25/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTY S/SW WIND
AFTER 14Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS PLACED ON HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND COOLER TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY... TEMPS ARE MUCH COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY... BUT
DPTS CONTINUE TO HANG IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S... WITH HEAT
INDICES HOVERING IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S THIS AFTN. WV ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED FROM THE NRN GREAT PLAINS... SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK
SHORT WAVE AND A REGION OF SFC CONVERGENCE HAS RESULTED IN A CU
FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN OK TO THE TX ESCARPMENT. CURRENT (2015Z)
RADAR HAS A LONE UPDRAFT TRYING IN ROGER MILLS COUNTY. SO... WILL
NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE AS MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS... BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS
MAY DEVELOP WITH ANY STOUT UPDRAFT.

FOR FRIDAY... KEPT THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE... AS
HUMIDITIES AND HIGHS WILL KEEP AFTN HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. INCLUDED NORTH CENTRAL OK BACK IN THE
ADVISORY AS HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100S WITH HEAT INDICES NEARING
105 ONCE AGAIN. RH VALUES WILL DROP SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN HOT. HOWEVER... WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY
FOR THE MOMENT AS HEAT INDICES WILL BE BORDERLINE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR NEXT WEEK... A WEAK FRONT WILL START TO PUSH INTO NW OK LATE SAT
INTO SUN... KEPT LOW CHANCES GOING OVERNIGHT SAT THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS FAR NRN OK AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN. MID/LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
ATTEMPTS TO STALL OUT THE FRONT THROUGH MON... BEFORE A STRONGER
SHORT WAVE/FRONT COMBO SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION INTO WED. IN
RESPONSE... THERE WILL BE NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP... WITH A
COOL DOWN BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S BY
WED.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         74 101  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 101  74 101 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 103  73 104 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  99  76 103 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         74  99  74 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ005>008-010>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

25/11/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 242343
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
643 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
25/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTY S/SW WIND
AFTER 14Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS PLACED ON HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND COOLER TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY... TEMPS ARE MUCH COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY... BUT
DPTS CONTINUE TO HANG IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S... WITH HEAT
INDICES HOVERING IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S THIS AFTN. WV ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED FROM THE NRN GREAT PLAINS... SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK
SHORT WAVE AND A REGION OF SFC CONVERGENCE HAS RESULTED IN A CU
FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN OK TO THE TX ESCARPMENT. CURRENT (2015Z)
RADAR HAS A LONE UPDRAFT TRYING IN ROGER MILLS COUNTY. SO... WILL
NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE AS MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS... BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS
MAY DEVELOP WITH ANY STOUT UPDRAFT.

FOR FRIDAY... KEPT THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE... AS
HUMIDITIES AND HIGHS WILL KEEP AFTN HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. INCLUDED NORTH CENTRAL OK BACK IN THE
ADVISORY AS HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100S WITH HEAT INDICES NEARING
105 ONCE AGAIN. RH VALUES WILL DROP SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN HOT. HOWEVER... WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY
FOR THE MOMENT AS HEAT INDICES WILL BE BORDERLINE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR NEXT WEEK... A WEAK FRONT WILL START TO PUSH INTO NW OK LATE SAT
INTO SUN... KEPT LOW CHANCES GOING OVERNIGHT SAT THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS FAR NRN OK AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN. MID/LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
ATTEMPTS TO STALL OUT THE FRONT THROUGH MON... BEFORE A STRONGER
SHORT WAVE/FRONT COMBO SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION INTO WED. IN
RESPONSE... THERE WILL BE NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP... WITH A
COOL DOWN BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S BY
WED.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         74 101  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 101  74 101 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 103  73 104 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  99  76 103 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         74  99  74 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ005>008-010>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

25/11/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 242343
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
643 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
25/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTY S/SW WIND
AFTER 14Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS PLACED ON HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND COOLER TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY... TEMPS ARE MUCH COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY... BUT
DPTS CONTINUE TO HANG IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S... WITH HEAT
INDICES HOVERING IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S THIS AFTN. WV ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED FROM THE NRN GREAT PLAINS... SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK
SHORT WAVE AND A REGION OF SFC CONVERGENCE HAS RESULTED IN A CU
FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN OK TO THE TX ESCARPMENT. CURRENT (2015Z)
RADAR HAS A LONE UPDRAFT TRYING IN ROGER MILLS COUNTY. SO... WILL
NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE AS MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS... BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS
MAY DEVELOP WITH ANY STOUT UPDRAFT.

FOR FRIDAY... KEPT THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE... AS
HUMIDITIES AND HIGHS WILL KEEP AFTN HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. INCLUDED NORTH CENTRAL OK BACK IN THE
ADVISORY AS HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100S WITH HEAT INDICES NEARING
105 ONCE AGAIN. RH VALUES WILL DROP SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN HOT. HOWEVER... WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY
FOR THE MOMENT AS HEAT INDICES WILL BE BORDERLINE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR NEXT WEEK... A WEAK FRONT WILL START TO PUSH INTO NW OK LATE SAT
INTO SUN... KEPT LOW CHANCES GOING OVERNIGHT SAT THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS FAR NRN OK AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN. MID/LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
ATTEMPTS TO STALL OUT THE FRONT THROUGH MON... BEFORE A STRONGER
SHORT WAVE/FRONT COMBO SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION INTO WED. IN
RESPONSE... THERE WILL BE NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP... WITH A
COOL DOWN BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S BY
WED.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         74 101  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 101  74 101 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 103  73 104 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  99  76 103 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         74  99  74 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ005>008-010>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

25/11/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 242343
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
643 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
25/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTY S/SW WIND
AFTER 14Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS PLACED ON HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND COOLER TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY... TEMPS ARE MUCH COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY... BUT
DPTS CONTINUE TO HANG IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S... WITH HEAT
INDICES HOVERING IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S THIS AFTN. WV ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED FROM THE NRN GREAT PLAINS... SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK
SHORT WAVE AND A REGION OF SFC CONVERGENCE HAS RESULTED IN A CU
FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN OK TO THE TX ESCARPMENT. CURRENT (2015Z)
RADAR HAS A LONE UPDRAFT TRYING IN ROGER MILLS COUNTY. SO... WILL
NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE AS MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS... BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS
MAY DEVELOP WITH ANY STOUT UPDRAFT.

FOR FRIDAY... KEPT THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE... AS
HUMIDITIES AND HIGHS WILL KEEP AFTN HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. INCLUDED NORTH CENTRAL OK BACK IN THE
ADVISORY AS HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100S WITH HEAT INDICES NEARING
105 ONCE AGAIN. RH VALUES WILL DROP SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN HOT. HOWEVER... WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY
FOR THE MOMENT AS HEAT INDICES WILL BE BORDERLINE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR NEXT WEEK... A WEAK FRONT WILL START TO PUSH INTO NW OK LATE SAT
INTO SUN... KEPT LOW CHANCES GOING OVERNIGHT SAT THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS FAR NRN OK AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN. MID/LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
ATTEMPTS TO STALL OUT THE FRONT THROUGH MON... BEFORE A STRONGER
SHORT WAVE/FRONT COMBO SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION INTO WED. IN
RESPONSE... THERE WILL BE NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP... WITH A
COOL DOWN BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S BY
WED.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         74 101  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 101  74 101 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 103  73 104 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  99  76 103 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         74  99  74 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ005>008-010>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

25/11/11



000
FXUS64 KTSA 242317
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
617 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE UNDER ACHIEVED TODAY THANKS LARGELY TO MORE
CLOUD COVER THAN EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE DAY AND ALSO DUE TO AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND. THE HEAT WILL STILL BE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ALL
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HEAT. WILL
LEAVE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH AS IS FOR NOW AS CURRENT FORECAST
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO JUST TOUCH THE 105 THRESHOLD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NOW LOOK TO BE THE DAYS MOST
LIKELY TO EXCEED THE THRESHOLD AND ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL ONLY
CARRY LOW POPS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROF DEVELOPS
JUST TO OUR EAST AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. A
DISTURBANCE ROTATING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND IF THE
RAIN DOES INDEED MATERIALIZE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05





000
FXUS64 KTSA 242317
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
617 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE UNDER ACHIEVED TODAY THANKS LARGELY TO MORE
CLOUD COVER THAN EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE DAY AND ALSO DUE TO AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND. THE HEAT WILL STILL BE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ALL
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HEAT. WILL
LEAVE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH AS IS FOR NOW AS CURRENT FORECAST
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO JUST TOUCH THE 105 THRESHOLD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NOW LOOK TO BE THE DAYS MOST
LIKELY TO EXCEED THE THRESHOLD AND ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL ONLY
CARRY LOW POPS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROF DEVELOPS
JUST TO OUR EAST AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. A
DISTURBANCE ROTATING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND IF THE
RAIN DOES INDEED MATERIALIZE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 242055
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
355 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE UNDER ACHIEVED TODAY THANKS LARGELY TO MORE
CLOUD COVER THAN EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE DAY AND ALSO DUE TO AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND. THE HEAT WILL STILL BE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ALL
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HEAT. WILL
LEAVE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH AS IS FOR NOW AS CURRENT FORECAST
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO JUST TOUCH THE 105 THRESHOLD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NOW LOOK TO BE THE DAYS MOST
LIKELY TO EXCEED THE THRESHOLD AND ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL ONLY
CARRY LOW POPS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROF DEVELOPS
JUST TO OUR EAST AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. A
DISTURBANCE ROTATING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND IF THE
RAIN DOES INDEED MATERIALIZE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  98  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   69  95  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   69  94  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   67  98  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   62  91  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   62  92  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   68  94  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   68  94  74  98 /   0   0   0  10
F10   70  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   69  94  73  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....05





000
FXUS64 KTSA 242055
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
355 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE UNDER ACHIEVED TODAY THANKS LARGELY TO MORE
CLOUD COVER THAN EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE DAY AND ALSO DUE TO AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND. THE HEAT WILL STILL BE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ALL
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HEAT. WILL
LEAVE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH AS IS FOR NOW AS CURRENT FORECAST
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO JUST TOUCH THE 105 THRESHOLD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NOW LOOK TO BE THE DAYS MOST
LIKELY TO EXCEED THE THRESHOLD AND ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL ONLY
CARRY LOW POPS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROF DEVELOPS
JUST TO OUR EAST AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. A
DISTURBANCE ROTATING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND IF THE
RAIN DOES INDEED MATERIALIZE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  98  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   69  95  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   69  94  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   67  98  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   62  91  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   62  92  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   68  94  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   68  94  74  98 /   0   0   0  10
F10   70  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   69  94  73  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....05






000
FXUS64 KOUN 242021
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
321 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS PLACED ON HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND COOLER TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY... TEMPS ARE MUCH COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY... BUT
DPTS CONTINUE TO HANG IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S... WITH HEAT
INDICES HOVERING IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S THIS AFTN. WV ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED FROM THE NRN GREAT PLAINS... SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK
SHORT WAVE AND A REGION OF SFC CONVERGENCE HAS RESULTED IN A CU
FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN OK TO THE TX ESCARPMENT. CURRENT (2015Z)
RADAR HAS A LONE UPDRAFT TRYING IN ROGER MILLS COUNTY. SO... WILL
NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE AS MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS... BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS
MAY DEVELOP WITH ANY STOUT UPDRAFT.

FOR FRIDAY... KEPT THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE... AS
HUMIDITIES AND HIGHS WILL KEEP AFTN HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. INCLUDED NORTH CENTRAL OK BACK IN THE
ADVISORY AS HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100S WITH HEAT INDICES NEARING
105 ONCE AGAIN. RH VALUES WILL DROP SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN HOT. HOWEVER... WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY
FOR THE MOMENT AS HEAT INDICES WILL BE BORDERLINE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR NEXT WEEK... A WEAK FRONT WILL START TO PUSH INTO NW OK LATE SAT
INTO SUN... KEPT LOW CHANCES GOING OVERNIGHT SAT THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS FAR NRN OK AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN. MID/LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
ATTEMPTS TO STALL OUT THE FRONT THROUGH MON... BEFORE A STRONGER
SHORT WAVE/FRONT COMBO SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION INTO WED. IN
RESPONSE... THERE WILL BE NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP... WITH A
COOL DOWN BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S BY
WED.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         74 101  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 101  74 101 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 103  73 104 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  99  76 103 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         74  99  74 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

26/04




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241746
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH SOME CU WILL BE DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
ALL TERMAINALS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY SFC
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
PATCHES OF BR AND LOW CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING OVER
MOST OF OK AND N TX. IFR CONDITIONS IN SE OK AT SUNRISE WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR THROUGH THE MID-MORNING PERIOD. BY
AFTERNOON...ALL OF OK/N TX SHOULD BE WIDE-OPEN VFR. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TURN AROUND FROM E TO S...AND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT. SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
REDUCE THE CHANCES OF BR/FG THEN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OPPRESSIVE
HUMIDITY WILL ABATE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN RISE TO AROUND 100 TO 105
DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
SOME MODEST RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWEST
INTO TEXAS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESUME OVER THE FRONT AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROBABLY SET UP A SITUATION SIMILAR
TO WHAT PRODUCED RECORD COOL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LAST WEEK.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PORTRAYING A WET...CLOUDY DAY NEXT
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES F BELOW
AVERAGE.

A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE WEEKEND
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         98  74 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  75 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           98  73 102  73 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     93  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         97  75 102  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ014>019-021>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

26/04/67



000
FXUS64 KOUN 241746
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH SOME CU WILL BE DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
ALL TERMAINALS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY SFC
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
PATCHES OF BR AND LOW CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING OVER
MOST OF OK AND N TX. IFR CONDITIONS IN SE OK AT SUNRISE WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR THROUGH THE MID-MORNING PERIOD. BY
AFTERNOON...ALL OF OK/N TX SHOULD BE WIDE-OPEN VFR. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TURN AROUND FROM E TO S...AND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT. SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
REDUCE THE CHANCES OF BR/FG THEN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OPPRESSIVE
HUMIDITY WILL ABATE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN RISE TO AROUND 100 TO 105
DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
SOME MODEST RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWEST
INTO TEXAS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESUME OVER THE FRONT AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROBABLY SET UP A SITUATION SIMILAR
TO WHAT PRODUCED RECORD COOL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LAST WEEK.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PORTRAYING A WET...CLOUDY DAY NEXT
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES F BELOW
AVERAGE.

A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE WEEKEND
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         98  74 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  75 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           98  73 102  73 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     93  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         97  75 102  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ014>019-021>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

26/04/67



000
FXUS64 KOUN 241746
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH SOME CU WILL BE DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
ALL TERMAINALS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY SFC
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
PATCHES OF BR AND LOW CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING OVER
MOST OF OK AND N TX. IFR CONDITIONS IN SE OK AT SUNRISE WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR THROUGH THE MID-MORNING PERIOD. BY
AFTERNOON...ALL OF OK/N TX SHOULD BE WIDE-OPEN VFR. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TURN AROUND FROM E TO S...AND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT. SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
REDUCE THE CHANCES OF BR/FG THEN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OPPRESSIVE
HUMIDITY WILL ABATE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN RISE TO AROUND 100 TO 105
DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
SOME MODEST RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWEST
INTO TEXAS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESUME OVER THE FRONT AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROBABLY SET UP A SITUATION SIMILAR
TO WHAT PRODUCED RECORD COOL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LAST WEEK.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PORTRAYING A WET...CLOUDY DAY NEXT
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES F BELOW
AVERAGE.

A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE WEEKEND
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         98  74 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  75 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           98  73 102  73 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     93  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         97  75 102  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ014>019-021>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

26/04/67



000
FXUS64 KOUN 241746
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH SOME CU WILL BE DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
ALL TERMAINALS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY SFC
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
PATCHES OF BR AND LOW CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING OVER
MOST OF OK AND N TX. IFR CONDITIONS IN SE OK AT SUNRISE WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR THROUGH THE MID-MORNING PERIOD. BY
AFTERNOON...ALL OF OK/N TX SHOULD BE WIDE-OPEN VFR. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TURN AROUND FROM E TO S...AND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT. SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
REDUCE THE CHANCES OF BR/FG THEN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OPPRESSIVE
HUMIDITY WILL ABATE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN RISE TO AROUND 100 TO 105
DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
SOME MODEST RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWEST
INTO TEXAS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESUME OVER THE FRONT AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROBABLY SET UP A SITUATION SIMILAR
TO WHAT PRODUCED RECORD COOL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LAST WEEK.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PORTRAYING A WET...CLOUDY DAY NEXT
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES F BELOW
AVERAGE.

A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE WEEKEND
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         98  74 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  75 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           98  73 102  73 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     93  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         97  75 102  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ014>019-021>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

26/04/67



000
FXUS64 KTSA 241713
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1213 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES...FYV/XNA/FSM...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING BY 21Z...LEAVING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP IN FSM EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN QUIET...WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS UPDATE. INCREASED CLOUDS
ACROSS THE EAST WITH LOW LEVEL DECK SPREADING WEST FROM CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. FOG ACROSS THE AREA HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST
PART...WITH A FEW PATCHY AREAS STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...THUS MAY HAVE TO ADJUST
POPS DEPENDING ON SCALE OF DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
AVIATION...16





000
FXUS64 KTSA 241713
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1213 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES...FYV/XNA/FSM...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING BY 21Z...LEAVING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP IN FSM EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN QUIET...WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS UPDATE. INCREASED CLOUDS
ACROSS THE EAST WITH LOW LEVEL DECK SPREADING WEST FROM CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. FOG ACROSS THE AREA HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST
PART...WITH A FEW PATCHY AREAS STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...THUS MAY HAVE TO ADJUST
POPS DEPENDING ON SCALE OF DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
AVIATION...16






000
FXUS64 KTSA 241459
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
959 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS UPDATE. INCREASED CLOUDS
ACROSS THE EAST WITH LOW LEVEL DECK SPREADING WEST FROM CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. FOG ACROSS THE AREA HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST
PART...WITH A FEW PATCHY AREAS STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...THUS MAY HAVE TO ADJUST
POPS DEPENDING ON SCALE OF DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT A FEW TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER THAT... VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AFTER THE HUMBLING EXPERIENCE WHICH WAS YESTERDAY`S FORECAST...I
WILL MAKE ANOTHER ATTEMPT AT IT THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WHICH
HELPED TO BRING YESTERDAY`S STORMS HAS NOW SETTLED DOWN TO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER COLORADO WITH NERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OK/AR. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TODAY...MORE SO OVER IN
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE SOME DRIER AIR WILL ACTUALLY BACK DOOR IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN RATHER HIGH OVER EASTERN OK UNFORTUNATELY...THUS AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL STILL LIKELY TOP 100 DEGREES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT WITH TIME AS A STRONG SYSTEM
OVER THE PAC NW TOPS THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN CANADA. INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER THE ROCKPILE WILL INTENSIFY THE 850MB THERMAL
RIDGE WHICH WILL THEN SPREAD EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND. THE THERMAL TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BASED ON THESE FACTORS...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE OK WILL LIKELY COME VERY NEAR OR TOP THE CENTURY
MARK BOTH DAYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER FRIDAY WITH THE MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO MIX OUT SATURDAY...BUT NONETHELESS HEAT INDICES WILL
WARRANT HEAT HEADLINES OVER A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN OK AND WEST
CENTRAL AR THRU THE WEEKEND. WILL START THINGS OFF WITH AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR THE TULSA METRO AND POINTS TO OUR
NORTHWEST WHERE A VERY WARM NIGHT IS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO A LARGER AREA TO DEAL
WITH THE HEAT ON SATURDAY ON FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS.

THE BIG COOL DOWN FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK IS STILL ON TRACK. A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST THRU THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE FRONT BACK INTO
THE 80S. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
PRECIP TIMING IN A NW FLOW REGIME...SUGGESTING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS PRECIP EVENT APPEARS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE
EVENT WHICH OCCURRED A WEEK AGO THURSDAY WHICH SHATTERED RECORD
LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS. I HAVE LOWERED HIGHS AND INCREASED POPS ON
WEDNESDAY IN ANTICIPATION OF MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

BOTTOM LINE...AFTER THE BIG HEAT THIS WEEKEND...RELIEF WILL BE ON
THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16





000
FXUS64 KTSA 241459
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
959 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS UPDATE. INCREASED CLOUDS
ACROSS THE EAST WITH LOW LEVEL DECK SPREADING WEST FROM CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. FOG ACROSS THE AREA HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST
PART...WITH A FEW PATCHY AREAS STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...THUS MAY HAVE TO ADJUST
POPS DEPENDING ON SCALE OF DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT A FEW TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER THAT... VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AFTER THE HUMBLING EXPERIENCE WHICH WAS YESTERDAY`S FORECAST...I
WILL MAKE ANOTHER ATTEMPT AT IT THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WHICH
HELPED TO BRING YESTERDAY`S STORMS HAS NOW SETTLED DOWN TO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER COLORADO WITH NERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OK/AR. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TODAY...MORE SO OVER IN
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE SOME DRIER AIR WILL ACTUALLY BACK DOOR IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN RATHER HIGH OVER EASTERN OK UNFORTUNATELY...THUS AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL STILL LIKELY TOP 100 DEGREES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT WITH TIME AS A STRONG SYSTEM
OVER THE PAC NW TOPS THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN CANADA. INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER THE ROCKPILE WILL INTENSIFY THE 850MB THERMAL
RIDGE WHICH WILL THEN SPREAD EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND. THE THERMAL TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BASED ON THESE FACTORS...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE OK WILL LIKELY COME VERY NEAR OR TOP THE CENTURY
MARK BOTH DAYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER FRIDAY WITH THE MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO MIX OUT SATURDAY...BUT NONETHELESS HEAT INDICES WILL
WARRANT HEAT HEADLINES OVER A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN OK AND WEST
CENTRAL AR THRU THE WEEKEND. WILL START THINGS OFF WITH AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR THE TULSA METRO AND POINTS TO OUR
NORTHWEST WHERE A VERY WARM NIGHT IS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO A LARGER AREA TO DEAL
WITH THE HEAT ON SATURDAY ON FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS.

THE BIG COOL DOWN FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK IS STILL ON TRACK. A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST THRU THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE FRONT BACK INTO
THE 80S. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
PRECIP TIMING IN A NW FLOW REGIME...SUGGESTING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS PRECIP EVENT APPEARS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE
EVENT WHICH OCCURRED A WEEK AGO THURSDAY WHICH SHATTERED RECORD
LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS. I HAVE LOWERED HIGHS AND INCREASED POPS ON
WEDNESDAY IN ANTICIPATION OF MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

BOTTOM LINE...AFTER THE BIG HEAT THIS WEEKEND...RELIEF WILL BE ON
THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16






000
FXUS64 KTSA 241111
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
611 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT A FEW TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER THAT... VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AFTER THE HUMBLING EXPERIENCE WHICH WAS YESTERDAY`S FORECAST...I
WILL MAKE ANOTHER ATTEMPT AT IT THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WHICH
HELPED TO BRING YESTERDAY`S STORMS HAS NOW SETTLED DOWN TO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER COLORADO WITH NERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OK/AR. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TODAY...MORE SO OVER IN
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE SOME DRIER AIR WILL ACTUALLY BACK DOOR IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN RATHER HIGH OVER EASTERN OK UNFORTUNATELY...THUS AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL STILL LIKELY TOP 100 DEGREES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT WITH TIME AS A STRONG SYSTEM
OVER THE PAC NW TOPS THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN CANADA. INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER THE ROCKPILE WILL INTENSIFY THE 850MB THERMAL
RIDGE WHICH WILL THEN SPREAD EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND. THE THERMAL TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BASED ON THESE FACTORS...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE OK WILL LIKELY COME VERY NEAR OR TOP THE CENTURY
MARK BOTH DAYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER FRIDAY WITH THE MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO MIX OUT SATURDAY...BUT NONETHELESS HEAT INDICES WILL
WARRANT HEAT HEADLINES OVER A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN OK AND WEST
CENTRAL AR THRU THE WEEKEND. WILL START THINGS OFF WITH AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR THE TULSA METRO AND POINTS TO OUR
NORTHWEST WHERE A VERY WARM NIGHT IS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO A LARGER AREA TO DEAL
WITH THE HEAT ON SATURDAY ON FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS.

THE BIG COOL DOWN FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK IS STILL ON TRACK. A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST THRU THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE FRONT BACK INTO
THE 80S. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
PRECIP TIMING IN A NW FLOW REGIME...SUGGESTING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS PRECIP EVENT APPEARS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE
EVENT WHICH OCCURRED A WEEK AGO THURSDAY WHICH SHATTERED RECORD
LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS. I HAVE LOWERED HIGHS AND INCREASED POPS ON
WEDNESDAY IN ANTICIPATION OF MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

BOTTOM LINE...AFTER THE BIG HEAT THIS WEEKEND...RELIEF WILL BE ON
THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KOUN 241111
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
611 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHES OF BR AND LOW CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING OVER
MOST OF OK AND N TX. IFR CONDITIONS IN SE OK AT SUNRISE WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR THROUGH THE MID-MORNING PERIOD. BY
AFTERNOON...ALL OF OK/N TX SHOULD BE WIDE-OPEN VFR. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TURN AROUND FROM E TO S...AND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT. SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
REDUCE THE CHANCES OF BR/FG THEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OPPRESSIVE
HUMIDITY WILL ABATE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN RISE TO AROUND 100 TO 105
DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
SOME MODEST RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWEST
INTO TEXAS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESUME OVER THE FRONT AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROBABLY SET UP A SITUATION SIMILAR
TO WHAT PRODUCED RECORD COOL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LAST WEEK.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PORTRAYING A WET...CLOUDY DAY NEXT
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES F BELOW
AVERAGE.

A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE WEEKEND
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         98  74 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  75 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           98  73 102  73 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     93  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         97  75 102  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ014>019-021>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

30/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241111
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
611 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHES OF BR AND LOW CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING OVER
MOST OF OK AND N TX. IFR CONDITIONS IN SE OK AT SUNRISE WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR THROUGH THE MID-MORNING PERIOD. BY
AFTERNOON...ALL OF OK/N TX SHOULD BE WIDE-OPEN VFR. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TURN AROUND FROM E TO S...AND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT. SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
REDUCE THE CHANCES OF BR/FG THEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OPPRESSIVE
HUMIDITY WILL ABATE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN RISE TO AROUND 100 TO 105
DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
SOME MODEST RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWEST
INTO TEXAS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESUME OVER THE FRONT AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROBABLY SET UP A SITUATION SIMILAR
TO WHAT PRODUCED RECORD COOL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LAST WEEK.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PORTRAYING A WET...CLOUDY DAY NEXT
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES F BELOW
AVERAGE.

A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE WEEKEND
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         98  74 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  75 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           98  73 102  73 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     93  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         97  75 102  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ014>019-021>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

30/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241111
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
611 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHES OF BR AND LOW CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING OVER
MOST OF OK AND N TX. IFR CONDITIONS IN SE OK AT SUNRISE WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR THROUGH THE MID-MORNING PERIOD. BY
AFTERNOON...ALL OF OK/N TX SHOULD BE WIDE-OPEN VFR. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TURN AROUND FROM E TO S...AND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT. SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
REDUCE THE CHANCES OF BR/FG THEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OPPRESSIVE
HUMIDITY WILL ABATE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN RISE TO AROUND 100 TO 105
DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
SOME MODEST RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWEST
INTO TEXAS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESUME OVER THE FRONT AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROBABLY SET UP A SITUATION SIMILAR
TO WHAT PRODUCED RECORD COOL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LAST WEEK.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PORTRAYING A WET...CLOUDY DAY NEXT
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES F BELOW
AVERAGE.

A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE WEEKEND
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         98  74 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  75 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           98  73 102  73 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     93  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         97  75 102  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ014>019-021>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

30/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241111
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
611 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHES OF BR AND LOW CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING OVER
MOST OF OK AND N TX. IFR CONDITIONS IN SE OK AT SUNRISE WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR THROUGH THE MID-MORNING PERIOD. BY
AFTERNOON...ALL OF OK/N TX SHOULD BE WIDE-OPEN VFR. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TURN AROUND FROM E TO S...AND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT. SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
REDUCE THE CHANCES OF BR/FG THEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OPPRESSIVE
HUMIDITY WILL ABATE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN RISE TO AROUND 100 TO 105
DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
SOME MODEST RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWEST
INTO TEXAS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESUME OVER THE FRONT AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROBABLY SET UP A SITUATION SIMILAR
TO WHAT PRODUCED RECORD COOL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LAST WEEK.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PORTRAYING A WET...CLOUDY DAY NEXT
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES F BELOW
AVERAGE.

A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE WEEKEND
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         98  74 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  75 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           98  73 102  73 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     93  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         97  75 102  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ014>019-021>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

30/23/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 240845
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER THE HUMBLING EXPERIENCE WHICH WAS YESTERDAY`S FORECAST...I
WILL MAKE ANOTHER ATTEMPT AT IT THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WHICH
HELPED TO BRING YESTERDAY`S STORMS HAS NOW SETTLED DOWN TO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER COLORADO WITH NERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OK/AR. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TODAY...MORE SO OVER IN
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE SOME DRIER AIR WILL ACTUALLY BACK DOOR IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN RATHER HIGH OVER EASTERN OK UNFORTUNATELY...THUS AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL STILL LIKELY TOP 100 DEGREES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT WITH TIME AS A STRONG SYSTEM
OVER THE PAC NW TOPS THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN CANADA. INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER THE ROCKPILE WILL INTENSIFY THE 850MB THERMAL
RIDGE WHICH WILL THEN SPREAD EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND. THE THERMAL TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BASED ON THESE FACTORS...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE OK WILL LIKELY COME VERY NEAR OR TOP THE CENTURY
MARK BOTH DAYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER FRIDAY WITH THE MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO MIX OUT SATURDAY...BUT NONETHELESS HEAT INDICES WILL
WARRANT HEAT HEADLINES OVER A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN OK AND WEST
CENTRAL AR THRU THE WEEKEND. WILL START THINGS OFF WITH AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR THE TULSA METRO AND POINTS TO OUR
NORTHWEST WHERE A VERY WARM NIGHT IS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO A LARGER AREA TO DEAL
WITH THE HEAT ON SATURDAY ON FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS.

THE BIG COOL DOWN FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK IS STILL ON TRACK. A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST THRU THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE FRONT BACK INTO
THE 80S. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
PRECIP TIMING IN A NW FLOW REGIME...SUGGESTING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS PRECIP EVENT APPEARS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE
EVENT WHICH OCCURRED A WEEK AGO THURSDAY WHICH SHATTERED RECORD
LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS. I HAVE LOWERED HIGHS AND INCREASED POPS ON
WEDNESDAY IN ANTICIPATION OF MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

BOTTOM LINE...AFTER THE BIG HEAT THIS WEEKEND...RELIEF WILL BE ON
THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  76  99  79 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   88  70  96  74 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   93  73  96  76 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   92  72  99  76 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   87  66  92  73 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   84  64  92  72 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   91  72  96  75 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   88  70  95  77 /   0   0   0  10
F10   92  74  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   94  72  96  75 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 240845
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER THE HUMBLING EXPERIENCE WHICH WAS YESTERDAY`S FORECAST...I
WILL MAKE ANOTHER ATTEMPT AT IT THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WHICH
HELPED TO BRING YESTERDAY`S STORMS HAS NOW SETTLED DOWN TO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER COLORADO WITH NERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OK/AR. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TODAY...MORE SO OVER IN
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE SOME DRIER AIR WILL ACTUALLY BACK DOOR IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN RATHER HIGH OVER EASTERN OK UNFORTUNATELY...THUS AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL STILL LIKELY TOP 100 DEGREES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT WITH TIME AS A STRONG SYSTEM
OVER THE PAC NW TOPS THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN CANADA. INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER THE ROCKPILE WILL INTENSIFY THE 850MB THERMAL
RIDGE WHICH WILL THEN SPREAD EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND. THE THERMAL TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BASED ON THESE FACTORS...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE OK WILL LIKELY COME VERY NEAR OR TOP THE CENTURY
MARK BOTH DAYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER FRIDAY WITH THE MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO MIX OUT SATURDAY...BUT NONETHELESS HEAT INDICES WILL
WARRANT HEAT HEADLINES OVER A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN OK AND WEST
CENTRAL AR THRU THE WEEKEND. WILL START THINGS OFF WITH AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR THE TULSA METRO AND POINTS TO OUR
NORTHWEST WHERE A VERY WARM NIGHT IS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO A LARGER AREA TO DEAL
WITH THE HEAT ON SATURDAY ON FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS.

THE BIG COOL DOWN FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK IS STILL ON TRACK. A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST THRU THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE FRONT BACK INTO
THE 80S. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
PRECIP TIMING IN A NW FLOW REGIME...SUGGESTING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS PRECIP EVENT APPEARS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE
EVENT WHICH OCCURRED A WEEK AGO THURSDAY WHICH SHATTERED RECORD
LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS. I HAVE LOWERED HIGHS AND INCREASED POPS ON
WEDNESDAY IN ANTICIPATION OF MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

BOTTOM LINE...AFTER THE BIG HEAT THIS WEEKEND...RELIEF WILL BE ON
THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  76  99  79 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   88  70  96  74 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   93  73  96  76 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   92  72  99  76 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   87  66  92  73 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   84  64  92  72 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   91  72  96  75 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   88  70  95  77 /   0   0   0  10
F10   92  74  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   94  72  96  75 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KOUN 240840
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
340 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OPPRESSIVE
HUMIDITY WILL ABATE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN RISE TO AROUND 100 TO 105
DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
SOME MODEST RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWEST
INTO TEXAS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESUME OVER THE FRONT AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROBABLY SET UP A SITUATION SIMILAR
TO WHAT PRODUCED RECORD COOL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LAST WEEK.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PORTRAYING A WET...CLOUDY DAY NEXT
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES F BELOW
AVERAGE.

A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE WEEKENDFRONT
AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         98  74 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  75 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           98  73 102  73 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     93  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         97  75 102  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ014>019-021>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

30/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 240840
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
340 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OPPRESSIVE
HUMIDITY WILL ABATE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NEVERTHELESS...HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN RISE TO AROUND 100 TO 105
DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
SOME MODEST RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWEST
INTO TEXAS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESUME OVER THE FRONT AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROBABLY SET UP A SITUATION SIMILAR
TO WHAT PRODUCED RECORD COOL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LAST WEEK.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PORTRAYING A WET...CLOUDY DAY NEXT
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES F BELOW
AVERAGE.

A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE WEEKENDFRONT
AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         98  74 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  75 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           98  73 102  73 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     93  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         97  75 102  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ014>019-021>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

30/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 240452
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1152 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS... STORMS HAVE ENDED FOR THE TAF SITES FOR TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
MODIFIED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY WITH NO OTHER STORMS
EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE EDGE WILL BE TAKEN OFF OF
THE HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF
I-35...HUMIDITIES WILL STILL MAKE IT A STICKY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
HEAT ADVISORY WAS REMOVED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
FOR TOMORROW AND WILL LIKELY BE ADDED BACK FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. TYPICAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS HEAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
DECENT COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  96  76 104 /  10   0   0  10
HOBART OK         74 100  74 105 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 101  76 106 /  40   0   0   0
GAGE OK           71 100  76 105 /  10   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     73  92  77 103 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         75 100  74 104 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ014>019-021>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

11/25/25




000
FXUS64 KTSA 240451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY AREAS OF
FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH BVO/XNA/FYV HAVING
THE BETTER CHANCES. FOR NOW WILL ADD TEMPO GROUPS TO THESE
LOCATIONS FOR POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUDS LOOK TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS
OVER THE CWA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH ANY PATCHY FOG.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED AND SHIFTED SOUTH OUT OF
THE CWA BY LATE THIS EVENING AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGED
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...SKIES HAVE BEGUN
TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE NORTH AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND RECENT RAINS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...NOT FULLY CONFIDENT ON
THIS OCCURRING AS EASTERLY WINDS LOOK TO STAY UP JUST ENOUGH AND
WILL NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL HELP LOW TEMPS
FALL INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA. EVENING UPDATE WILL
BE TO TAKE OUT REMAINING POPS/WX AND TO TWEAK TEMP/SKY GRIDS. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  74 100 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   72  91  70  97 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   70  93  73  97 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   66  92  70 100 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   64  87  64  93 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   64  86  63  93 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   69  92  71  97 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   66  89  69  96 /  10   0   0   0
F10   70  92  73  98 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   70  94  72  97 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 240451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY AREAS OF
FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH BVO/XNA/FYV HAVING
THE BETTER CHANCES. FOR NOW WILL ADD TEMPO GROUPS TO THESE
LOCATIONS FOR POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUDS LOOK TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS
OVER THE CWA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH ANY PATCHY FOG.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED AND SHIFTED SOUTH OUT OF
THE CWA BY LATE THIS EVENING AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGED
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...SKIES HAVE BEGUN
TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE NORTH AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND RECENT RAINS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...NOT FULLY CONFIDENT ON
THIS OCCURRING AS EASTERLY WINDS LOOK TO STAY UP JUST ENOUGH AND
WILL NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL HELP LOW TEMPS
FALL INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA. EVENING UPDATE WILL
BE TO TAKE OUT REMAINING POPS/WX AND TO TWEAK TEMP/SKY GRIDS. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  74 100 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   72  91  70  97 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   70  93  73  97 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   66  92  70 100 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   64  87  64  93 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   64  86  63  93 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   69  92  71  97 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   66  89  69  96 /  10   0   0   0
F10   70  92  73  98 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   70  94  72  97 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 240251
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
951 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED AND SHIFTED SOUTH OUT OF
THE CWA BY LATE THIS EVENING AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGED
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...SKIES HAVE BEGUN
TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE NORTH AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND RECENT RAINS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...NOT FULLY CONFIDENT ON
THIS OCCURRING AS EASTERLY WINDS LOOK TO STAY UP JUST ENOUGH AND
WILL NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL HELP LOW TEMPS
FALL INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA. EVENING UPDATE WILL
BE TO TAKE OUT REMAINING POPS/WX AND TO TWEAK TEMP/SKY GRIDS. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS IN GOOD SHAPE.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  74 100 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   72  91  70  97 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   70  93  73  97 /  10  10   0  10
BVO   66  92  70 100 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   64  87  64  93 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   64  86  63  93 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   69  92  71  97 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   66  89  69  96 /  10   0   0  10
F10   70  92  73  98 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   70  94  72  97 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....05





000
FXUS64 KTSA 240251
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
951 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED AND SHIFTED SOUTH OUT OF
THE CWA BY LATE THIS EVENING AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGED
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...SKIES HAVE BEGUN
TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE NORTH AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND RECENT RAINS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...NOT FULLY CONFIDENT ON
THIS OCCURRING AS EASTERLY WINDS LOOK TO STAY UP JUST ENOUGH AND
WILL NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL HELP LOW TEMPS
FALL INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA. EVENING UPDATE WILL
BE TO TAKE OUT REMAINING POPS/WX AND TO TWEAK TEMP/SKY GRIDS. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS IN GOOD SHAPE.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  74 100 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   72  91  70  97 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   70  93  73  97 /  10  10   0  10
BVO   66  92  70 100 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   64  87  64  93 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   64  86  63  93 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   69  92  71  97 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   66  89  69  96 /  10   0   0  10
F10   70  92  73  98 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   70  94  72  97 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....05






000
FXUS64 KOUN 240231
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
931 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MODIFIED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY WITH NO OTHER STORMS
EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE EDGE WILL BE TAKEN OFF OF
THE HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF
I-35...HUMIDITIES WILL STILL MAKE IT A STICKY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
HEAT ADVISORY WAS REMOVED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
FOR TOMORROW AND WILL LIKELY BE ADDED BACK FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. TYPICAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS HEAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
DECENT COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  96  76 104 /  10   0   0  10
HOBART OK         74 100  74 105 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 101  76 106 /  40   0   0   0
GAGE OK           71 100  76 105 /  10   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     73  92  77 103 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         75 100  74 104 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ014>019-021>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

11/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 240231
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
931 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MODIFIED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY WITH NO OTHER STORMS
EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE EDGE WILL BE TAKEN OFF OF
THE HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF
I-35...HUMIDITIES WILL STILL MAKE IT A STICKY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
HEAT ADVISORY WAS REMOVED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
FOR TOMORROW AND WILL LIKELY BE ADDED BACK FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. TYPICAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS HEAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
DECENT COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  96  76 104 /  10   0   0  10
HOBART OK         74 100  74 105 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 101  76 106 /  40   0   0   0
GAGE OK           71 100  76 105 /  10   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     73  92  77 103 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         75 100  74 104 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ014>019-021>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

11/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 232328
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED STORMS COULD AFFECT SOME OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...
BUT MOST OF THE RAIN/STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE TAF SITES. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY OF THE
STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TWO FORECAST CONCERNS... FIRST... THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY DIVING S/SW ACROSS ERN OK. SECOND... THE HEAT CONTINUES.

CURRENTLY... A COMPLEX OF STORMS CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS ERN
OK. ALONG THE BOWING SEGMENT OF THIS LINE... THE NWS IN TULSA
CONTINUES TO RECEIVE REPORTS OF DOWN TREES AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE... ARW/NMM/HRRR/RAP... THE WHOLE GANG... CONTINUE
TO TURN THIS CONVECTION SW THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE NO QUALMS WITH
THE GENERAL SOLUTION... GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE H500 RIDGE AND HOW
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS OK/AR OZARKS. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD
WEST ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTN... DEVELOPING INTO A REGION OF HIGHER
THETA E AIR/INSTABILITY... SUPPORTED BY SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID
70S ACROSS S/SERN OK. THE BEST CHCS FOR CONVECTION WILL EXIST
ALONG/EAST OF I-35 AND ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40 LATE THIS AFTN AND
EVENING. WITH REGARDS TO IMPACTS... DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN GIVEN STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES... 8-10 C/KM AND SFC-
600MB THETA E DIFFERENTIALS IN THE 30 K RANGE. HAIL... NICKEL TO QTR
SIZE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT FOR TOMORROW... HOWEVER... THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL HAVE A SMALL IMPACT. DPTS WILL IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY... BUT HEAT INDICES WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S.
WITH THAT SAID... DECIDED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL... WRN
AND SRN OK... AND WRN N TX THROUGH 00Z SAT (7PM CDT FRI). FOR THE
MOMENT... REMOVED COUNTIES ACROSS N CENTRAL OK FROM THE ADVISORY AS
HEAT INDICES TMRW WILL ONLY REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S. HOWEVER... THEY
WILL MORE THAN LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL TOP IN THE LOW/MID 100S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

FOR THE WEEKEND... TEMPS REMAIN HOT... BUT A REPRIEVE IS ON TAP FOR
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SWINGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE
80S/90S AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  96  76 104 /  20   0   0  10
HOBART OK         73 100  74 105 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74 101  76 106 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           70 100  76 105 /  10   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     72  92  77 103 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         74 100  74 104 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ014>019-021>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

11/25/25



000
FXUS64 KOUN 232328
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED STORMS COULD AFFECT SOME OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...
BUT MOST OF THE RAIN/STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE TAF SITES. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY OF THE
STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TWO FORECAST CONCERNS... FIRST... THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY DIVING S/SW ACROSS ERN OK. SECOND... THE HEAT CONTINUES.

CURRENTLY... A COMPLEX OF STORMS CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS ERN
OK. ALONG THE BOWING SEGMENT OF THIS LINE... THE NWS IN TULSA
CONTINUES TO RECEIVE REPORTS OF DOWN TREES AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE... ARW/NMM/HRRR/RAP... THE WHOLE GANG... CONTINUE
TO TURN THIS CONVECTION SW THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE NO QUALMS WITH
THE GENERAL SOLUTION... GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE H500 RIDGE AND HOW
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS OK/AR OZARKS. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD
WEST ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTN... DEVELOPING INTO A REGION OF HIGHER
THETA E AIR/INSTABILITY... SUPPORTED BY SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID
70S ACROSS S/SERN OK. THE BEST CHCS FOR CONVECTION WILL EXIST
ALONG/EAST OF I-35 AND ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40 LATE THIS AFTN AND
EVENING. WITH REGARDS TO IMPACTS... DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN GIVEN STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES... 8-10 C/KM AND SFC-
600MB THETA E DIFFERENTIALS IN THE 30 K RANGE. HAIL... NICKEL TO QTR
SIZE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT FOR TOMORROW... HOWEVER... THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL HAVE A SMALL IMPACT. DPTS WILL IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY... BUT HEAT INDICES WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S.
WITH THAT SAID... DECIDED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL... WRN
AND SRN OK... AND WRN N TX THROUGH 00Z SAT (7PM CDT FRI). FOR THE
MOMENT... REMOVED COUNTIES ACROSS N CENTRAL OK FROM THE ADVISORY AS
HEAT INDICES TMRW WILL ONLY REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S. HOWEVER... THEY
WILL MORE THAN LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL TOP IN THE LOW/MID 100S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

FOR THE WEEKEND... TEMPS REMAIN HOT... BUT A REPRIEVE IS ON TAP FOR
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SWINGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE
80S/90S AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  96  76 104 /  20   0   0  10
HOBART OK         73 100  74 105 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74 101  76 106 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           70 100  76 105 /  10   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     72  92  77 103 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         74 100  74 104 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ014>019-021>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

11/25/25




000
FXUS64 KTSA 232311
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
611 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND WILL
EXIT OUR FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 00Z. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGING
WINDS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED WITH THESE STORMS. WILL CANCEL THE HEAT
ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLY AS STORM OUTFLOW HAS COOLED THE AIRMASS.

THE HEAT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AND HEAT HEADLINES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE REQUIRED AGAIN
BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS LIKELY IN PARTS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AND WILL EXPAND SOMEWHAT SATURDAY.
THE NAM12 IS ESPECIALLY HOT AND IF IT VERIFIES...EVEN THESE
FORECAST NUMBERS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES TOO COOL.

RELIEF IS ON THE WAY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROF DEVELOPS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DRIVES A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
OUR AREA. WILL CARRY LOW POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THIS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THE UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK
SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME. UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE TROF WILL ALSO RESULT IN PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05





000
FXUS64 KTSA 232311
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
611 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND WILL
EXIT OUR FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 00Z. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGING
WINDS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED WITH THESE STORMS. WILL CANCEL THE HEAT
ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLY AS STORM OUTFLOW HAS COOLED THE AIRMASS.

THE HEAT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AND HEAT HEADLINES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE REQUIRED AGAIN
BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS LIKELY IN PARTS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AND WILL EXPAND SOMEWHAT SATURDAY.
THE NAM12 IS ESPECIALLY HOT AND IF IT VERIFIES...EVEN THESE
FORECAST NUMBERS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES TOO COOL.

RELIEF IS ON THE WAY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROF DEVELOPS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DRIVES A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
OUR AREA. WILL CARRY LOW POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THIS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THE UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK
SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME. UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE TROF WILL ALSO RESULT IN PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 232118
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
418 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND WILL
EXIT OUR FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 00Z. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGING
WINDS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED WITH THESE STORMS. WILL CANCEL THE HEAT
ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLY AS STORM OUTFLOW HAS COOLED THE AIRMASS.

THE HEAT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AND HEAT HEADLINES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE REQUIRED AGAIN
BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS LIKELY IN PARTS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AND WILL EXPAND SOMEWHAT SATURDAY.
THE NAM12 IS ESPECIALLY HOT AND IF IT VERIFIES...EVEN THESE
FORECAST NUMBERS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES TOO COOL.

RELIEF IS ON THE WAY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROF DEVELOPS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DRIVES A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
OUR AREA. WILL CARRY LOW POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THIS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THE UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK
SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME. UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE TROF WILL ALSO RESULT IN PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  74 100 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   72  91  70  97 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   71  93  73  97 /  10  10   0  10
BVO   66  92  70 100 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   64  87  64  93 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   64  86  63  93 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   69  92  71  97 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   66  89  69  96 /  10   0   0  10
F10   70  92  73  98 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   71  94  72  97 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KOUN 232106
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
406 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TWO FORECAST CONCERNS... FIRST... THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY DIVING S/SW ACROSS ERN OK. SECOND... THE HEAT CONTINUES.

CURRENTLY... A COMPLEX OF STORMS CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS ERN
OK. ALONG THE BOWING SEGMENT OF THIS LINE... THE NWS IN TULSA
CONTINUES TO RECEIVE REPORTS OF DOWN TREES AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE... ARW/NMM/HRRR/RAP... THE WHOLE GANG... CONTINUE
TO TURN THIS CONVECTION SW THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE NO QUALMS WITH
THE GENERAL SOLUTION... GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE H500 RIDGE AND HOW
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS OK/AR OZARKS. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD
WEST ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTN... DEVELOPING INTO A REGION OF HIGHER
THETA E AIR/INSTABILITY... SUPPORTED BY SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID
70S ACROSS S/SERN OK. THE BEST CHCS FOR CONVECTION WILL EXIST
ALONG/EAST OF I-35 AND ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40 LATE THIS AFTN AND
EVENING. WITH REGARDS TO IMPACTS... DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN GIVEN STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES... 8-10 C/KM AND SFC-
600MB THETA E DIFFERENTIALS IN THE 30 K RANGE. HAIL... NICKEL TO QTR
SIZE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT FOR TOMORROW... HOWEVER... THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL HAVE A SMALL IMPACT. DPTS WILL IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY... BUT HEAT INDICES WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S.
WITH THAT SAID... DECIDED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL... WRN
AND SRN OK... AND WRN N TX THROUGH 00Z SAT (7PM CDT FRI). FOR THE
MOMENT... REMOVED COUNTIES ACROSS N CENTRAL OK FROM THE ADVISORY AS
HEAT INDICES TMRW WILL ONLY REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S. HOWEVER... THEY
WILL MORE THAN LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL TOP IN THE LOW/MID 100S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

FOR THE WEEKEND... TEMPS REMAIN HOT... BUT A REPRIEVE IS ON TAP FOR
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SWINGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE
80S/90S AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  96  76 104 /  20   0   0  10
HOBART OK         73 100  74 105 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74 101  76 106 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           70 100  76 105 /  10   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     72  92  77 103 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         74 100  74 104 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ014>019-021>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

26/04



000
FXUS64 KOUN 232106
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
406 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TWO FORECAST CONCERNS... FIRST... THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY DIVING S/SW ACROSS ERN OK. SECOND... THE HEAT CONTINUES.

CURRENTLY... A COMPLEX OF STORMS CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS ERN
OK. ALONG THE BOWING SEGMENT OF THIS LINE... THE NWS IN TULSA
CONTINUES TO RECEIVE REPORTS OF DOWN TREES AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE... ARW/NMM/HRRR/RAP... THE WHOLE GANG... CONTINUE
TO TURN THIS CONVECTION SW THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE NO QUALMS WITH
THE GENERAL SOLUTION... GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE H500 RIDGE AND HOW
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS OK/AR OZARKS. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD
WEST ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTN... DEVELOPING INTO A REGION OF HIGHER
THETA E AIR/INSTABILITY... SUPPORTED BY SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID
70S ACROSS S/SERN OK. THE BEST CHCS FOR CONVECTION WILL EXIST
ALONG/EAST OF I-35 AND ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40 LATE THIS AFTN AND
EVENING. WITH REGARDS TO IMPACTS... DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN GIVEN STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES... 8-10 C/KM AND SFC-
600MB THETA E DIFFERENTIALS IN THE 30 K RANGE. HAIL... NICKEL TO QTR
SIZE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT FOR TOMORROW... HOWEVER... THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL HAVE A SMALL IMPACT. DPTS WILL IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY... BUT HEAT INDICES WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S.
WITH THAT SAID... DECIDED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL... WRN
AND SRN OK... AND WRN N TX THROUGH 00Z SAT (7PM CDT FRI). FOR THE
MOMENT... REMOVED COUNTIES ACROSS N CENTRAL OK FROM THE ADVISORY AS
HEAT INDICES TMRW WILL ONLY REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S. HOWEVER... THEY
WILL MORE THAN LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL TOP IN THE LOW/MID 100S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

FOR THE WEEKEND... TEMPS REMAIN HOT... BUT A REPRIEVE IS ON TAP FOR
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SWINGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE
80S/90S AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  96  76 104 /  20   0   0  10
HOBART OK         73 100  74 105 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74 101  76 106 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           70 100  76 105 /  10   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     72  92  77 103 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         74 100  74 104 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ014>019-021>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

26/04



000
FXUS64 KOUN 232106
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
406 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TWO FORECAST CONCERNS... FIRST... THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY DIVING S/SW ACROSS ERN OK. SECOND... THE HEAT CONTINUES.

CURRENTLY... A COMPLEX OF STORMS CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS ERN
OK. ALONG THE BOWING SEGMENT OF THIS LINE... THE NWS IN TULSA
CONTINUES TO RECEIVE REPORTS OF DOWN TREES AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE... ARW/NMM/HRRR/RAP... THE WHOLE GANG... CONTINUE
TO TURN THIS CONVECTION SW THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE NO QUALMS WITH
THE GENERAL SOLUTION... GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE H500 RIDGE AND HOW
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS OK/AR OZARKS. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD
WEST ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTN... DEVELOPING INTO A REGION OF HIGHER
THETA E AIR/INSTABILITY... SUPPORTED BY SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID
70S ACROSS S/SERN OK. THE BEST CHCS FOR CONVECTION WILL EXIST
ALONG/EAST OF I-35 AND ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40 LATE THIS AFTN AND
EVENING. WITH REGARDS TO IMPACTS... DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN GIVEN STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES... 8-10 C/KM AND SFC-
600MB THETA E DIFFERENTIALS IN THE 30 K RANGE. HAIL... NICKEL TO QTR
SIZE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT FOR TOMORROW... HOWEVER... THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL HAVE A SMALL IMPACT. DPTS WILL IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY... BUT HEAT INDICES WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S.
WITH THAT SAID... DECIDED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL... WRN
AND SRN OK... AND WRN N TX THROUGH 00Z SAT (7PM CDT FRI). FOR THE
MOMENT... REMOVED COUNTIES ACROSS N CENTRAL OK FROM THE ADVISORY AS
HEAT INDICES TMRW WILL ONLY REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S. HOWEVER... THEY
WILL MORE THAN LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL TOP IN THE LOW/MID 100S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

FOR THE WEEKEND... TEMPS REMAIN HOT... BUT A REPRIEVE IS ON TAP FOR
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SWINGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE
80S/90S AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  96  76 104 /  20   0   0  10
HOBART OK         73 100  74 105 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74 101  76 106 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           70 100  76 105 /  10   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     72  92  77 103 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         74 100  74 104 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ014>019-021>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

26/04



000
FXUS64 KOUN 232106
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
406 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TWO FORECAST CONCERNS... FIRST... THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY DIVING S/SW ACROSS ERN OK. SECOND... THE HEAT CONTINUES.

CURRENTLY... A COMPLEX OF STORMS CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS ERN
OK. ALONG THE BOWING SEGMENT OF THIS LINE... THE NWS IN TULSA
CONTINUES TO RECEIVE REPORTS OF DOWN TREES AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE... ARW/NMM/HRRR/RAP... THE WHOLE GANG... CONTINUE
TO TURN THIS CONVECTION SW THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE NO QUALMS WITH
THE GENERAL SOLUTION... GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE H500 RIDGE AND HOW
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS OK/AR OZARKS. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD
WEST ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTN... DEVELOPING INTO A REGION OF HIGHER
THETA E AIR/INSTABILITY... SUPPORTED BY SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID
70S ACROSS S/SERN OK. THE BEST CHCS FOR CONVECTION WILL EXIST
ALONG/EAST OF I-35 AND ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40 LATE THIS AFTN AND
EVENING. WITH REGARDS TO IMPACTS... DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN GIVEN STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES... 8-10 C/KM AND SFC-
600MB THETA E DIFFERENTIALS IN THE 30 K RANGE. HAIL... NICKEL TO QTR
SIZE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT FOR TOMORROW... HOWEVER... THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL HAVE A SMALL IMPACT. DPTS WILL IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY... BUT HEAT INDICES WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S.
WITH THAT SAID... DECIDED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL... WRN
AND SRN OK... AND WRN N TX THROUGH 00Z SAT (7PM CDT FRI). FOR THE
MOMENT... REMOVED COUNTIES ACROSS N CENTRAL OK FROM THE ADVISORY AS
HEAT INDICES TMRW WILL ONLY REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S. HOWEVER... THEY
WILL MORE THAN LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL TOP IN THE LOW/MID 100S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

FOR THE WEEKEND... TEMPS REMAIN HOT... BUT A REPRIEVE IS ON TAP FOR
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SWINGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE
80S/90S AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  96  76 104 /  20   0   0  10
HOBART OK         73 100  74 105 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74 101  76 106 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           70 100  76 105 /  10   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     72  92  77 103 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         74 100  74 104 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ014>019-021>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

26/04



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