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000
FXUS64 KTSA 191146
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
646 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
IFR/MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES KBVO/KTUL/KRVS/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS CLOUD LAYER RATHER THIN AND
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z...BECOMING VFR ALL
STATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING. SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY AS WINDS
RETURN TO THE SOUTH. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY HOWEVER OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR LOW.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND DIRECTLY BEHIND FRONT.

UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MAIN PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA BUT
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.  OTHERWISE...
MILD AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE CONFINED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  69  88  70 /   0  10  20  20
FSM   85  68  87  68 /   0  10  20  20
MLC   85  69  87  66 /   0   0  20  20
BVO   87  66  89  66 /   0  10  20  20
FYV   82  63  84  63 /   0  10  20  20
BYV   81  64  83  65 /   0  10  20  20
MKO   86  67  88  67 /   0  10  20  20
MIO   84  66  86  66 /   0  10  20  20
F10   85  69  87  68 /   0  10  20  20
HHW   87  68  89  67 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...21





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000
FXUS64 KOUN 191134
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
634 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS BEFORE 18Z...THEN HIGHER
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS.

BR/FG WITH MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z
ACROSS THE AREA. UPDATED TAFS TO REFLECT THESE LOWER CONDITIONS.
THINK THE WORST CONDITIONS...WHERE CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY GO BELOW
MINIMUMS...WILL OCCUR NEAR KOKC... KOUN...KPNC...AND KHBR THROUGH
15Z. OTHER SITES WILL MAINLY BE MVFR.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES 14-18Z. THINK ALL
SITES WILL BE VFR BY 18Z.

MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE ISO-NUM SHRA MAY
OCCUR.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECASTING RAIN POSSIBILITIES AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAINS CHALLENGING.

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAINLY TO
DECREASE RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODELS CAN PERFORM POORLY IN WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...SUCH AS THE ONGOING NEARBY WEATHER PATTERN. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
SEEM TO BE SHIFTING FARTHER WEST EACH MODEL RUN...STAYING MAINLY OVER
WEST TEXAS. AS A RESULT...DID NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS
OF FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THINKING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FARTHER WEST THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD RAINS
THIS WEEKEND ARE BECOMING LESS LIKELY.

THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY...THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/2 MILE. ANY FOG WILL LIFT AND
DISSIPATE BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM.

REST OF TODAY APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY. RAIN
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST PLACES DUE TO SUFFICIENT
CAPPING...EXCEPT IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...WEST OF A GAGE TO WICHITA FALLS LINE WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL EXIST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS IN THESE AREA. GENERALLY...PREFERRED THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
EXCEPT SOUTHWEST OF A CLINTON TO DURANT LINE WHERE THICKER HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR...KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY EXPAND
EAST AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE CONFINED TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ANY SHOWER OR STORM WOULD MOVE SLOWLY AND COULD PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THINK RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED NORTHEAST OF A CLINTON TO
DURANT LINE WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING DRY. HIGHS WERE INCREASED
IN MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY DUE TO LESS RAIN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. ANY SHOWER OR STORM
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MORE SUN WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES...SO HIGHS WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WIDESPREAD RAINS
REMAIN UNLIKELY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BRIEFLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERALL...INCREASED HIGHS
SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE LACK OF NEARBY COOLER AIR.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  88  67 /   0  10  30  20
HOBART OK         87  70  84  68 /  10  40  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  87  71  84  69 /  10  30  50  30
GAGE OK           87  66  86  63 /  10  40  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     90  67  90  65 /   0  10  20  20
DURANT OK         88  71  88  69 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 191134
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
634 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS BEFORE 18Z...THEN HIGHER
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS.

BR/FG WITH MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z
ACROSS THE AREA. UPDATED TAFS TO REFLECT THESE LOWER CONDITIONS.
THINK THE WORST CONDITIONS...WHERE CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY GO BELOW
MINIMUMS...WILL OCCUR NEAR KOKC... KOUN...KPNC...AND KHBR THROUGH
15Z. OTHER SITES WILL MAINLY BE MVFR.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES 14-18Z. THINK ALL
SITES WILL BE VFR BY 18Z.

MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE ISO-NUM SHRA MAY
OCCUR.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECASTING RAIN POSSIBILITIES AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAINS CHALLENGING.

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAINLY TO
DECREASE RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODELS CAN PERFORM POORLY IN WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...SUCH AS THE ONGOING NEARBY WEATHER PATTERN. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
SEEM TO BE SHIFTING FARTHER WEST EACH MODEL RUN...STAYING MAINLY OVER
WEST TEXAS. AS A RESULT...DID NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS
OF FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THINKING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FARTHER WEST THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD RAINS
THIS WEEKEND ARE BECOMING LESS LIKELY.

THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY...THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/2 MILE. ANY FOG WILL LIFT AND
DISSIPATE BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM.

REST OF TODAY APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY. RAIN
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST PLACES DUE TO SUFFICIENT
CAPPING...EXCEPT IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...WEST OF A GAGE TO WICHITA FALLS LINE WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL EXIST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS IN THESE AREA. GENERALLY...PREFERRED THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
EXCEPT SOUTHWEST OF A CLINTON TO DURANT LINE WHERE THICKER HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR...KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY EXPAND
EAST AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE CONFINED TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ANY SHOWER OR STORM WOULD MOVE SLOWLY AND COULD PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THINK RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED NORTHEAST OF A CLINTON TO
DURANT LINE WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING DRY. HIGHS WERE INCREASED
IN MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY DUE TO LESS RAIN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. ANY SHOWER OR STORM
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MORE SUN WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES...SO HIGHS WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WIDESPREAD RAINS
REMAIN UNLIKELY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BRIEFLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERALL...INCREASED HIGHS
SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE LACK OF NEARBY COOLER AIR.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  88  67 /   0  10  30  20
HOBART OK         87  70  84  68 /  10  40  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  87  71  84  69 /  10  30  50  30
GAGE OK           87  66  86  63 /  10  40  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     90  67  90  65 /   0  10  20  20
DURANT OK         88  71  88  69 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 191134
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
634 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS BEFORE 18Z...THEN HIGHER
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS.

BR/FG WITH MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z
ACROSS THE AREA. UPDATED TAFS TO REFLECT THESE LOWER CONDITIONS.
THINK THE WORST CONDITIONS...WHERE CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY GO BELOW
MINIMUMS...WILL OCCUR NEAR KOKC... KOUN...KPNC...AND KHBR THROUGH
15Z. OTHER SITES WILL MAINLY BE MVFR.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES 14-18Z. THINK ALL
SITES WILL BE VFR BY 18Z.

MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE ISO-NUM SHRA MAY
OCCUR.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECASTING RAIN POSSIBILITIES AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAINS CHALLENGING.

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAINLY TO
DECREASE RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODELS CAN PERFORM POORLY IN WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...SUCH AS THE ONGOING NEARBY WEATHER PATTERN. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
SEEM TO BE SHIFTING FARTHER WEST EACH MODEL RUN...STAYING MAINLY OVER
WEST TEXAS. AS A RESULT...DID NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS
OF FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THINKING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FARTHER WEST THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD RAINS
THIS WEEKEND ARE BECOMING LESS LIKELY.

THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY...THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/2 MILE. ANY FOG WILL LIFT AND
DISSIPATE BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM.

REST OF TODAY APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY. RAIN
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST PLACES DUE TO SUFFICIENT
CAPPING...EXCEPT IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...WEST OF A GAGE TO WICHITA FALLS LINE WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL EXIST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS IN THESE AREA. GENERALLY...PREFERRED THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
EXCEPT SOUTHWEST OF A CLINTON TO DURANT LINE WHERE THICKER HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR...KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY EXPAND
EAST AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE CONFINED TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ANY SHOWER OR STORM WOULD MOVE SLOWLY AND COULD PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THINK RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED NORTHEAST OF A CLINTON TO
DURANT LINE WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING DRY. HIGHS WERE INCREASED
IN MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY DUE TO LESS RAIN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. ANY SHOWER OR STORM
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MORE SUN WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES...SO HIGHS WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WIDESPREAD RAINS
REMAIN UNLIKELY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BRIEFLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERALL...INCREASED HIGHS
SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE LACK OF NEARBY COOLER AIR.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  88  67 /   0  10  30  20
HOBART OK         87  70  84  68 /  10  40  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  87  71  84  69 /  10  30  50  30
GAGE OK           87  66  86  63 /  10  40  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     90  67  90  65 /   0  10  20  20
DURANT OK         88  71  88  69 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 191134
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
634 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS BEFORE 18Z...THEN HIGHER
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS.

BR/FG WITH MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z
ACROSS THE AREA. UPDATED TAFS TO REFLECT THESE LOWER CONDITIONS.
THINK THE WORST CONDITIONS...WHERE CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY GO BELOW
MINIMUMS...WILL OCCUR NEAR KOKC... KOUN...KPNC...AND KHBR THROUGH
15Z. OTHER SITES WILL MAINLY BE MVFR.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES 14-18Z. THINK ALL
SITES WILL BE VFR BY 18Z.

MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE ISO-NUM SHRA MAY
OCCUR.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECASTING RAIN POSSIBILITIES AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAINS CHALLENGING.

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAINLY TO
DECREASE RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODELS CAN PERFORM POORLY IN WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...SUCH AS THE ONGOING NEARBY WEATHER PATTERN. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
SEEM TO BE SHIFTING FARTHER WEST EACH MODEL RUN...STAYING MAINLY OVER
WEST TEXAS. AS A RESULT...DID NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS
OF FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THINKING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FARTHER WEST THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD RAINS
THIS WEEKEND ARE BECOMING LESS LIKELY.

THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY...THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/2 MILE. ANY FOG WILL LIFT AND
DISSIPATE BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM.

REST OF TODAY APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY. RAIN
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST PLACES DUE TO SUFFICIENT
CAPPING...EXCEPT IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...WEST OF A GAGE TO WICHITA FALLS LINE WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL EXIST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS IN THESE AREA. GENERALLY...PREFERRED THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
EXCEPT SOUTHWEST OF A CLINTON TO DURANT LINE WHERE THICKER HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR...KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY EXPAND
EAST AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE CONFINED TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ANY SHOWER OR STORM WOULD MOVE SLOWLY AND COULD PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THINK RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED NORTHEAST OF A CLINTON TO
DURANT LINE WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING DRY. HIGHS WERE INCREASED
IN MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY DUE TO LESS RAIN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. ANY SHOWER OR STORM
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MORE SUN WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES...SO HIGHS WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WIDESPREAD RAINS
REMAIN UNLIKELY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BRIEFLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERALL...INCREASED HIGHS
SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE LACK OF NEARBY COOLER AIR.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  88  67 /   0  10  30  20
HOBART OK         87  70  84  68 /  10  40  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  87  71  84  69 /  10  30  50  30
GAGE OK           87  66  86  63 /  10  40  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     90  67  90  65 /   0  10  20  20
DURANT OK         88  71  88  69 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 190921 CCA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
412 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECASTING RAIN POSSIBILITIES AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAINS CHALLENGING.

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAINLY TO
DECREASE RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODELS CAN PERFORM POORLY IN WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...SUCH AS THE ONGOING NEARBY WEATHER PATTERN. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
SEEM TO BE SHIFTING FARTHER WEST EACH MODEL RUN...STAYING MAINLY OVER
WEST TEXAS. AS A RESULT...DID NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS
OF FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THINKING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FARTHER WEST THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD RAINS
THIS WEEKEND ARE BECOMING LESS LIKELY.

THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY...THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/2 MILE. ANY FOG WILL LIFT AND
DISSIPATE BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM.

REST OF TODAY APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY. RAIN
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST PLACES DUE TO SUFFICIENT
CAPPING...EXCEPT IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...WEST OF A GAGE TO WICHITA FALLS LINE WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL EXIST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS IN THESE AREA. GENERALLY...PREFERRED THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
EXCEPT SOUTHWEST OF A CLINTON TO DURANT LINE WHERE THICKER HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR...KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY EXPAND
EAST AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE CONFINED TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ANY SHOWER OR STORM WOULD MOVE SLOWLY AND COULD PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THINK RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED NORTHEAST OF A CLINTON TO
DURANT LINE WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING DRY. HIGHS WERE INCREASED
IN MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY DUE TO LESS RAIN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. ANY SHOWER OR STORM
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MORE SUN WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES...SO HIGHS WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WIDESPREAD RAINS
REMAIN UNLIKELY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BRIEFLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERALL...INCREASED HIGHS
SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE LACK OF NEARBY COOLER AIR.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  88  67 /   0  10  30  20
HOBART OK         87  70  84  68 /  10  40  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  87  71  84  69 /  10  30  50  30
GAGE OK           87  66  86  63 /  10  40  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     90  67  90  65 /   0  10  20  20
DURANT OK         88  71  88  69 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 190912
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
412 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECASTING RAIN POSSIBILITIES AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAINS CHALLENGING.

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAINLY TO
DECREASE RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS WHICH
CAN PERFORM POORLY IN WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
SEEM TO BE SHIFTING FARTHER WEST EACH MODEL RUN...STAYING MAINLY
OVER WEST TEXAS. AS A RESULT...DID NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR PARTS OF FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
THINKING THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FARTHER WEST THIS WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD RAINS THIS WEEKEND ARE BECOMING LESS LIKELY.

THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY...THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/2 MILE. ANY FOG WILL LIFT AND
DISSIPATE BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM.

REST OF TODAY APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY. RAIN
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST PLACES DUE TO SUFFICIENT
CAPPING...EXCEPT IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...WEST OF A GAGE TO WICHITA FALLS LINE WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL EXIST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS IN THESE AREA. GENERALLY...PREFERRED THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
EXCEPT SOUTHWEST OF A CLINTON TO DURANT LINE WHERE THICKER HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR...KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY EXPAND
EAST AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE CONFINED TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ANY SHOWER OR STORM WOULD MOVE SLOWLY AND COULD PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THINK RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED NORTHEAST OF A CLINTON TO
DURANT LINE WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING DRY. HIGHS WERE INCREASED
IN MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY DUE TO LESS RAIN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. ANY SHOWER OR STORM
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MORE SUN WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES...SO HIGHS WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WIDESPREAD RAINS
REMAIN UNLIKELY. INCREASED HIGHS SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH THE LACK OF NEARBY COOLER AIR.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  88  67 /   0  10  30  20
HOBART OK         87  70  84  68 /  10  40  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  87  71  84  69 /  10  30  50  30
GAGE OK           87  66  86  63 /  10  40  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     90  67  90  65 /   0  10  20  20
DURANT OK         88  71  88  69 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 190912
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
412 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECASTING RAIN POSSIBILITIES AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAINS CHALLENGING.

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAINLY TO
DECREASE RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS WHICH
CAN PERFORM POORLY IN WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
SEEM TO BE SHIFTING FARTHER WEST EACH MODEL RUN...STAYING MAINLY
OVER WEST TEXAS. AS A RESULT...DID NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR PARTS OF FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
THINKING THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FARTHER WEST THIS WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD RAINS THIS WEEKEND ARE BECOMING LESS LIKELY.

THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY...THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/2 MILE. ANY FOG WILL LIFT AND
DISSIPATE BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM.

REST OF TODAY APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY. RAIN
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST PLACES DUE TO SUFFICIENT
CAPPING...EXCEPT IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...WEST OF A GAGE TO WICHITA FALLS LINE WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL EXIST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS IN THESE AREA. GENERALLY...PREFERRED THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
EXCEPT SOUTHWEST OF A CLINTON TO DURANT LINE WHERE THICKER HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR...KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY EXPAND
EAST AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE CONFINED TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ANY SHOWER OR STORM WOULD MOVE SLOWLY AND COULD PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THINK RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED NORTHEAST OF A CLINTON TO
DURANT LINE WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING DRY. HIGHS WERE INCREASED
IN MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY DUE TO LESS RAIN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. ANY SHOWER OR STORM
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MORE SUN WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES...SO HIGHS WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WIDESPREAD RAINS
REMAIN UNLIKELY. INCREASED HIGHS SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH THE LACK OF NEARBY COOLER AIR.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  88  67 /   0  10  30  20
HOBART OK         87  70  84  68 /  10  40  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  87  71  84  69 /  10  30  50  30
GAGE OK           87  66  86  63 /  10  40  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     90  67  90  65 /   0  10  20  20
DURANT OK         88  71  88  69 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17



000
FXUS64 KTSA 190812
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
312 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING. SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY AS WINDS
RETURN TO THE SOUTH. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY HOWEVER OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR LOW.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND DIRECTLY BEHIND FRONT.

UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MAIN PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA BUT
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.  OTHERWISE...
MILD AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE CONFINED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  69  88  70 /   0  10  20  20
FSM   85  68  87  68 /   0  10  20  20
MLC   85  69  87  66 /   0   0  20  20
BVO   87  66  89  66 /   0  10  20  20
FYV   82  63  84  63 /   0  10  20  20
BYV   81  64  83  65 /   0  10  20  20
MKO   86  67  88  67 /   0  10  20  20
MIO   84  66  86  66 /   0  10  20  20
F10   85  69  87  68 /   0  10  20  20
HHW   87  68  89  67 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21





000
FXUS64 KTSA 190812
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
312 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING. SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY AS WINDS
RETURN TO THE SOUTH. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY HOWEVER OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR LOW.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND DIRECTLY BEHIND FRONT.

UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MAIN PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA BUT
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.  OTHERWISE...
MILD AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE CONFINED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  69  88  70 /   0  10  20  20
FSM   85  68  87  68 /   0  10  20  20
MLC   85  69  87  66 /   0   0  20  20
BVO   87  66  89  66 /   0  10  20  20
FYV   82  63  84  63 /   0  10  20  20
BYV   81  64  83  65 /   0  10  20  20
MKO   86  67  88  67 /   0  10  20  20
MIO   84  66  86  66 /   0  10  20  20
F10   85  69  87  68 /   0  10  20  20
HHW   87  68  89  67 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 190445
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES AT
THIS HOUR AND WILL SPREAD INTO KFSM BY THE VALID TIME. PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF
SITES. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL AREA
TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET NIGHT WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS RESIDING OVER THE AREA.
LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INTO NW ARKANSAS PER SATELLITE...AND HI RES
MODELS INDICATE SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD INTO EXTREME
NE OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...DID
LOWER TEMPS A BIT NEAR THE KS BORDER BASED ON CURRENT READINGS AND
TWEAKED SKY COVER. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT / EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THE
FORECAST AREA AND ANY REMNANT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FRIDAY THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO NE OK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY TIED TO THE TOPICAL
INFLUENCE WHICH WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINS MUCH FURTHER WEST.

SEVERAL DRY AND PLEASANTLY COOL DAYS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY
AND MAY CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT PRECIP
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW AS SFC RIDGING REMAINS THROUGH THE
REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 190445
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES AT
THIS HOUR AND WILL SPREAD INTO KFSM BY THE VALID TIME. PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF
SITES. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL AREA
TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET NIGHT WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS RESIDING OVER THE AREA.
LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INTO NW ARKANSAS PER SATELLITE...AND HI RES
MODELS INDICATE SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD INTO EXTREME
NE OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...DID
LOWER TEMPS A BIT NEAR THE KS BORDER BASED ON CURRENT READINGS AND
TWEAKED SKY COVER. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT / EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THE
FORECAST AREA AND ANY REMNANT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FRIDAY THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO NE OK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY TIED TO THE TOPICAL
INFLUENCE WHICH WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINS MUCH FURTHER WEST.

SEVERAL DRY AND PLEASANTLY COOL DAYS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY
AND MAY CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT PRECIP
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW AS SFC RIDGING REMAINS THROUGH THE
REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 190445
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES AT
THIS HOUR AND WILL SPREAD INTO KFSM BY THE VALID TIME. PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF
SITES. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL AREA
TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET NIGHT WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS RESIDING OVER THE AREA.
LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INTO NW ARKANSAS PER SATELLITE...AND HI RES
MODELS INDICATE SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD INTO EXTREME
NE OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...DID
LOWER TEMPS A BIT NEAR THE KS BORDER BASED ON CURRENT READINGS AND
TWEAKED SKY COVER. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT / EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THE
FORECAST AREA AND ANY REMNANT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FRIDAY THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO NE OK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY TIED TO THE TOPICAL
INFLUENCE WHICH WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINS MUCH FURTHER WEST.

SEVERAL DRY AND PLEASANTLY COOL DAYS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY
AND MAY CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT PRECIP
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW AS SFC RIDGING REMAINS THROUGH THE
REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 190445
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES AT
THIS HOUR AND WILL SPREAD INTO KFSM BY THE VALID TIME. PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF
SITES. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL AREA
TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET NIGHT WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS RESIDING OVER THE AREA.
LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INTO NW ARKANSAS PER SATELLITE...AND HI RES
MODELS INDICATE SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD INTO EXTREME
NE OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...DID
LOWER TEMPS A BIT NEAR THE KS BORDER BASED ON CURRENT READINGS AND
TWEAKED SKY COVER. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT / EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THE
FORECAST AREA AND ANY REMNANT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FRIDAY THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO NE OK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY TIED TO THE TOPICAL
INFLUENCE WHICH WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINS MUCH FURTHER WEST.

SEVERAL DRY AND PLEASANTLY COOL DAYS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY
AND MAY CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT PRECIP
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW AS SFC RIDGING REMAINS THROUGH THE
REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KOUN 190431
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1131 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT WINDS. WINDS WILL
PICK UP SOME DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 15-20KTS
ACROSS WEST. INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN DAYTIME CU
DEVELOPMENT... BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE LOWER CEILINGS. HOWEVER IF
THEY DO OCCUR SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST WAS TO LOWER POPS
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RECENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOW DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AND
EXPECT VERY SPARSE COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. ALSO MADE MINOR CHANGES TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/30/30



000
FXUS64 KOUN 190431
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1131 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT WINDS. WINDS WILL
PICK UP SOME DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 15-20KTS
ACROSS WEST. INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN DAYTIME CU
DEVELOPMENT... BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE LOWER CEILINGS. HOWEVER IF
THEY DO OCCUR SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST WAS TO LOWER POPS
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RECENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOW DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AND
EXPECT VERY SPARSE COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. ALSO MADE MINOR CHANGES TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/30/30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 190241
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
941 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET NIGHT WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS RESIDING OVER THE AREA.
LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INTO NW ARKANSAS PER SATELLITE...AND HI RES
MODELS INDICATE SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD INTO EXTREME
NE OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...DID
LOWER TEMPS A BIT NEAR THE KS BORDER BASED ON CURRENT READINGS AND
TWEAKED SKY COVER. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT / EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THE
FORECAST AREA AND ANY REMNANT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FRIDAY THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO NE OK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY TIED TO THE TOPICAL
INFLUENCE WHICH WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINS MUCH FURTHER WEST.

SEVERAL DRY AND PLEASANTLY COOL DAYS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY
AND MAY CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT PRECIP
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW AS SFC RIDGING REMAINS THROUGH THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  89  69  87 /  10  10  10  20
FSM   67  86  68  88 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   67  87  69  87 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   60  89  66  88 /  10  10  10  20
FYV   62  83  65  84 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   61  82  64  85 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   66  87  67  87 /  10  10   0  20
MIO   62  86  66  86 /  10  10  10  20
F10   67  87  68  86 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   69  87  69  88 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99








000
FXUS64 KTSA 190241
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
941 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET NIGHT WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS RESIDING OVER THE AREA.
LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INTO NW ARKANSAS PER SATELLITE...AND HI RES
MODELS INDICATE SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD INTO EXTREME
NE OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...DID
LOWER TEMPS A BIT NEAR THE KS BORDER BASED ON CURRENT READINGS AND
TWEAKED SKY COVER. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT / EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THE
FORECAST AREA AND ANY REMNANT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FRIDAY THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO NE OK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY TIED TO THE TOPICAL
INFLUENCE WHICH WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINS MUCH FURTHER WEST.

SEVERAL DRY AND PLEASANTLY COOL DAYS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY
AND MAY CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT PRECIP
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW AS SFC RIDGING REMAINS THROUGH THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  89  69  87 /  10  10  10  20
FSM   67  86  68  88 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   67  87  69  87 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   60  89  66  88 /  10  10  10  20
FYV   62  83  65  84 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   61  82  64  85 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   66  87  67  87 /  10  10   0  20
MIO   62  86  66  86 /  10  10  10  20
F10   67  87  68  86 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   69  87  69  88 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99







000
FXUS64 KOUN 190212
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
912 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST WAS TO LOWER POPS
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RECENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOW DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AND
EXPECT VERY SPARSE COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. ALSO MADE MINOR CHANGES TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

AVIATION...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT WINDS. WINDS WILL
PICK UP SOME DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS OF
15-20KTS ACROSS WEST. INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT... BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE LOWER CEILINGS. HOWEVER IF
THEY DO OCCUR SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  88  69  80 /  10  10  30  70
HOBART OK         68  87  70  80 /  10  20  60  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  88  71  84 /  10  20  50  60
GAGE OK           64  86  68  78 /   0  20  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     68  89  70  86 /  10  10  10  50
DURANT OK         70  88  70  87 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 182304
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
605 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT WINDS. WINDS WILL
PICK UP SOME DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS OF
15-20KTS ACROSS WEST. INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT... BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE LOWER CEILINGS. HOWEVER IF
THEY DO OCCUR SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW ARE LINGERING NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
WESTERN N TX...BUT EXPECT THESE WILL LIKELY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT LOW CHANCES TO LINGER ACROSS THE EXTREME
SW THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ODILE TRAVERSE THE PANHANDLE OF TX.
THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONSENSUS
MOISTURE AND OMEGA FIELDS SUGGEST THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WILL
IMPACT THE SW THROUGH EARLY SAT AM...AND THEN SHIFT ESE DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR WESTERN TX
ZONES AND SW OK ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THE
MOMENT. WILL PASS THIS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND AT
LEAST LOW CHC POPS WILL ACCOMPANY IT. MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED BOTH SAT AND SUN WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHCS PRESENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST SAT. THE COOL TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC HIGH SETTLES IN
OVER THE MIDWEST AND EXTENDS THROUGH OUR ENE ZONES. AT LEAST SCHC
POPS WILL RETURN BY TUES AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS KS AND WAA
RETURNS ACROSS THE WNW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  88  69  80 /  10  10  30  70
HOBART OK         69  87  70  80 /  10  20  60  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  71  84 /  20  20  50  60
GAGE OK           65  86  68  78 /  10  20  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  70  86 /  10  10  10  50
DURANT OK         71  88  70  87 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 182304
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
605 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT WINDS. WINDS WILL
PICK UP SOME DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS OF
15-20KTS ACROSS WEST. INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT... BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE LOWER CEILINGS. HOWEVER IF
THEY DO OCCUR SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW ARE LINGERING NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
WESTERN N TX...BUT EXPECT THESE WILL LIKELY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT LOW CHANCES TO LINGER ACROSS THE EXTREME
SW THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ODILE TRAVERSE THE PANHANDLE OF TX.
THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONSENSUS
MOISTURE AND OMEGA FIELDS SUGGEST THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WILL
IMPACT THE SW THROUGH EARLY SAT AM...AND THEN SHIFT ESE DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR WESTERN TX
ZONES AND SW OK ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THE
MOMENT. WILL PASS THIS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND AT
LEAST LOW CHC POPS WILL ACCOMPANY IT. MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED BOTH SAT AND SUN WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHCS PRESENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST SAT. THE COOL TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC HIGH SETTLES IN
OVER THE MIDWEST AND EXTENDS THROUGH OUR ENE ZONES. AT LEAST SCHC
POPS WILL RETURN BY TUES AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS KS AND WAA
RETURNS ACROSS THE WNW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  88  69  80 /  10  10  30  70
HOBART OK         69  87  70  80 /  10  20  60  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  71  84 /  20  20  50  60
GAGE OK           65  86  68  78 /  10  20  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  70  86 /  10  10  10  50
DURANT OK         71  88  70  87 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 182050
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW ARE LINGERING NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
WESTERN N TX...BUT EXPECT THESE WILL LIKELY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT LOW CHANCES TO LINGER ACROSS THE EXTREME
SW THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ODILE TRAVERSE THE PANHANDLE OF TX.
THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONSENSUS
MOISTURE AND OMEGA FIELDS SUGGEST THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WILL
IMPACT THE SW THROUGH EARLY SAT AM...AND THEN SHIFT ESE DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR WESTERN TX
ZONES AND SW OK ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THE
MOMENT. WILL PASS THIS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND AT
LEAST LOW CHC POPS WILL ACCOMPANY IT. MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED BOTH SAT AND SUN WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHCS PRESENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST SAT. THE COOL TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC HIGH SETTLES IN
OVER THE MIDWEST AND EXTENDS THROUGH OUR ENE ZONES. AT LEAST SCHC
POPS WILL RETURN BY TUES AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS KS AND WAA
RETURNS ACROSS THE WNW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  88  69  80 /  10  10  30  70
HOBART OK         69  87  70  80 /  10  20  60  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  71  84 /  20  20  50  60
GAGE OK           65  86  68  78 /  10  20  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  70  86 /  10  10  10  50
DURANT OK         71  88  70  87 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 182050
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW ARE LINGERING NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
WESTERN N TX...BUT EXPECT THESE WILL LIKELY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT LOW CHANCES TO LINGER ACROSS THE EXTREME
SW THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ODILE TRAVERSE THE PANHANDLE OF TX.
THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONSENSUS
MOISTURE AND OMEGA FIELDS SUGGEST THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WILL
IMPACT THE SW THROUGH EARLY SAT AM...AND THEN SHIFT ESE DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR WESTERN TX
ZONES AND SW OK ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THE
MOMENT. WILL PASS THIS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND AT
LEAST LOW CHC POPS WILL ACCOMPANY IT. MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED BOTH SAT AND SUN WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHCS PRESENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST SAT. THE COOL TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC HIGH SETTLES IN
OVER THE MIDWEST AND EXTENDS THROUGH OUR ENE ZONES. AT LEAST SCHC
POPS WILL RETURN BY TUES AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS KS AND WAA
RETURNS ACROSS THE WNW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  88  69  80 /  10  10  30  70
HOBART OK         69  87  70  80 /  10  20  60  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  71  84 /  20  20  50  60
GAGE OK           65  86  68  78 /  10  20  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  70  86 /  10  10  10  50
DURANT OK         71  88  70  87 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 182050
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW ARE LINGERING NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
WESTERN N TX...BUT EXPECT THESE WILL LIKELY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT LOW CHANCES TO LINGER ACROSS THE EXTREME
SW THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ODILE TRAVERSE THE PANHANDLE OF TX.
THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONSENSUS
MOISTURE AND OMEGA FIELDS SUGGEST THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WILL
IMPACT THE SW THROUGH EARLY SAT AM...AND THEN SHIFT ESE DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR WESTERN TX
ZONES AND SW OK ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THE
MOMENT. WILL PASS THIS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND AT
LEAST LOW CHC POPS WILL ACCOMPANY IT. MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED BOTH SAT AND SUN WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHCS PRESENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST SAT. THE COOL TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC HIGH SETTLES IN
OVER THE MIDWEST AND EXTENDS THROUGH OUR ENE ZONES. AT LEAST SCHC
POPS WILL RETURN BY TUES AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS KS AND WAA
RETURNS ACROSS THE WNW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  88  69  80 /  10  10  30  70
HOBART OK         69  87  70  80 /  10  20  60  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  71  84 /  20  20  50  60
GAGE OK           65  86  68  78 /  10  20  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  70  86 /  10  10  10  50
DURANT OK         71  88  70  87 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/03



000
FXUS64 KOUN 182050
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW ARE LINGERING NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
WESTERN N TX...BUT EXPECT THESE WILL LIKELY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT LOW CHANCES TO LINGER ACROSS THE EXTREME
SW THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ODILE TRAVERSE THE PANHANDLE OF TX.
THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONSENSUS
MOISTURE AND OMEGA FIELDS SUGGEST THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WILL
IMPACT THE SW THROUGH EARLY SAT AM...AND THEN SHIFT ESE DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR WESTERN TX
ZONES AND SW OK ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THE
MOMENT. WILL PASS THIS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND AT
LEAST LOW CHC POPS WILL ACCOMPANY IT. MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED BOTH SAT AND SUN WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHCS PRESENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST SAT. THE COOL TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC HIGH SETTLES IN
OVER THE MIDWEST AND EXTENDS THROUGH OUR ENE ZONES. AT LEAST SCHC
POPS WILL RETURN BY TUES AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS KS AND WAA
RETURNS ACROSS THE WNW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  88  69  80 /  10  10  30  70
HOBART OK         69  87  70  80 /  10  20  60  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  71  84 /  20  20  50  60
GAGE OK           65  86  68  78 /  10  20  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  70  86 /  10  10  10  50
DURANT OK         71  88  70  87 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/03



000
FXUS64 KTSA 182033
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
333 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT / EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THE
FORECAST AREA AND ANY REMNANT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FRIDAY THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO NE OK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY TIED TO THE TOPICAL
INFLUENCE WHICH WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINS MUCH FURTHER WEST.

SEVERAL DRY AND PLEASANTLY COOL DAYS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY
AND MAY CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT PRECIP
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW AS SFC RIDGING REMAINS THROUGH THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  89  69  87 /  10  10  10  20
FSM   67  86  68  88 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   67  87  69  87 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   65  89  66  88 /  10  10  10  20
FYV   62  83  65  84 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   61  82  64  85 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   66  87  67  87 /  10  10   0  20
MIO   64  86  66  86 /  10  10  10  20
F10   67  87  68  86 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   69  87  69  88 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 182033
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
333 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT / EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THE
FORECAST AREA AND ANY REMNANT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FRIDAY THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO NE OK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY TIED TO THE TOPICAL
INFLUENCE WHICH WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINS MUCH FURTHER WEST.

SEVERAL DRY AND PLEASANTLY COOL DAYS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY
AND MAY CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT PRECIP
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW AS SFC RIDGING REMAINS THROUGH THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  89  69  87 /  10  10  10  20
FSM   67  86  68  88 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   67  87  69  87 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   65  89  66  88 /  10  10  10  20
FYV   62  83  65  84 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   61  82  64  85 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   66  87  67  87 /  10  10   0  20
MIO   64  86  66  86 /  10  10  10  20
F10   67  87  68  86 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   69  87  69  88 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 181847
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
147 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE MORNING PRECIP HAS DISSIPATED AND PUSHED OUT OF THE
CWA. THE ONE EXCEPTION REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS SHOWERS
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THE ATMOSPHERE JUST SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER
CONTINUES TO BE WELL WORKED OVER...ALLOWING FOR THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO WEAKEN OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHERE ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM THE MORNING ACTIVITY COULD
REMAIN. WARMER TEMPS NEAR THE RED RIVER COULD ALLOW FOR A
THUNDERSTORM TO BECOME STRONG BUT INSTABILITY BEING ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE ORIGINAL MORNING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD LIMIT ANY
SEVERE CHANCES.

CONTINUED CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH THE PRECIP HAS KEPT TEMPS IN
CHECK OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
TEMPS RANGES FROM THE LOW 70S TO MID 80S NORTH TO SOUTH. WILL SEND
AN AFTERNOON UPDATE TO ADJUST AFTERNOON POP/WX/SKY/TEMP GRIDS
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  71  86 /  10  10  10  40
FSM   67  86  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   68  87  69  88 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   67  88  67  85 /  10  10  10  60
FYV   63  83  65  85 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   62  81  64  85 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   68  86  68  87 /  10  10  10  30
MIO   67  86  68  85 /  10  10  10  40
F10   69  86  69  88 /  10  10  10  30
HHW   68  87  68  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KOUN 181755
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED TS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND MOVING
INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, WHICH COULD SPREAD FAR ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO AFFECT TERMINAL KSPS. FOR NOW, A TEMPO IS IN EFFECT AT
KSPS.  OTHERWISE, ALL REMAINING TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND
UNDER VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION... CONTS TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE FA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY... ESPECIALLY IF IT SLOW DOWNS AND STALLS... THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL
REMAIN IN FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FA WHERE AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTS TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND NORTH TEXAS.
ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS SOME DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN/COOLER AIR EAST OF
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HOWEVER... SKIES WILL CLEAR IN SOME AREAS
AND SHOULD WARM UP QUICKLY WHEN SUN COMES OUT. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

AVIATION...
AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS MAINLY BUILDING
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW AND
THIS MAY RESULT IN SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR PNC AND PERHAPS OKC/OUN.
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION IS RATHER DEEP...5K FEET PER
KINX VWP...AND THIS SHOULD REACH OKC/OUN AROUND 14-15Z. AREA OF
RAIN IN WEST TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF HBR/LAW/SPS.

AFTER THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN KANSAS DEVELOPED
EARLIER ALONG AN 8H THETA-E GRADIENT PER RAP13. WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO VEER SOME ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WEAKEN INTO THE
MORNING. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL IMPACT EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE MORNING. OUTFLOW/PROPAGATION MAY RESULT IN A
FEW STORMS SKIRTING NORTH CENTRAL AND PERHAPS COUNTIES EAST OF A
SEMINOLE TO LAKE TEXOMA LINE.

ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE AND BETTER MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...BUT
STILL MAY BRING SOME RAIN TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH REMNANTS OF ODILE. HAVE TRENDED WITH
THE EC THIS MORNING WHICH MOVES REMNANTS INTO MEAN RIDGE POSITION
WITH LITTLE OR NO HANDOFF INTO FASTER FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THIS MAY
SHIFT BETTER CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO WESTERN/SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE RAIN IS NEEDED.

WILL KEEP SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR
CUTOFF LOW THAT LIFTS/OPENS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  69  87  70 /  60  10  10  20
HOBART OK         88  69  86  70 /  30  10  20  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  70  88  71 /  40  20  30  20
GAGE OK           91  67  85  69 /  10  10  20  50
PONCA CITY OK     88  69  88  70 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         87  70  88  71 /  50  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/03/67



000
FXUS64 KOUN 181755
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED TS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND MOVING
INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, WHICH COULD SPREAD FAR ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO AFFECT TERMINAL KSPS. FOR NOW, A TEMPO IS IN EFFECT AT
KSPS.  OTHERWISE, ALL REMAINING TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND
UNDER VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION... CONTS TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE FA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY... ESPECIALLY IF IT SLOW DOWNS AND STALLS... THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL
REMAIN IN FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FA WHERE AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTS TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND NORTH TEXAS.
ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS SOME DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN/COOLER AIR EAST OF
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HOWEVER... SKIES WILL CLEAR IN SOME AREAS
AND SHOULD WARM UP QUICKLY WHEN SUN COMES OUT. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

AVIATION...
AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS MAINLY BUILDING
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW AND
THIS MAY RESULT IN SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR PNC AND PERHAPS OKC/OUN.
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION IS RATHER DEEP...5K FEET PER
KINX VWP...AND THIS SHOULD REACH OKC/OUN AROUND 14-15Z. AREA OF
RAIN IN WEST TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF HBR/LAW/SPS.

AFTER THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN KANSAS DEVELOPED
EARLIER ALONG AN 8H THETA-E GRADIENT PER RAP13. WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO VEER SOME ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WEAKEN INTO THE
MORNING. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL IMPACT EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE MORNING. OUTFLOW/PROPAGATION MAY RESULT IN A
FEW STORMS SKIRTING NORTH CENTRAL AND PERHAPS COUNTIES EAST OF A
SEMINOLE TO LAKE TEXOMA LINE.

ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE AND BETTER MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...BUT
STILL MAY BRING SOME RAIN TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH REMNANTS OF ODILE. HAVE TRENDED WITH
THE EC THIS MORNING WHICH MOVES REMNANTS INTO MEAN RIDGE POSITION
WITH LITTLE OR NO HANDOFF INTO FASTER FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THIS MAY
SHIFT BETTER CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO WESTERN/SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE RAIN IS NEEDED.

WILL KEEP SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR
CUTOFF LOW THAT LIFTS/OPENS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  69  87  70 /  60  10  10  20
HOBART OK         88  69  86  70 /  30  10  20  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  70  88  71 /  40  20  30  20
GAGE OK           91  67  85  69 /  10  10  20  50
PONCA CITY OK     88  69  88  70 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         87  70  88  71 /  50  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/03/67




000
FXUS64 KTSA 181746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1245 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE COMMON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. BVO LOOKS
TO HAVE THE GREATER CHANCE OF REPORTING PRECIP AMONG THE TAF
SITES AND WILL CARRY VCSH. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT WITH POSSIBLE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BY EARLY
MORNING FRIDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO VFR TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAD
WEAKENED INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTERACTING WITH UPGLIDE WINDS
AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA LEFTOVER FROM THE EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHILE THE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE CWA. THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WHERE THE AIRMASS HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER YET.
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WARMER TEMPS NEAR THE RED RIVER
COULD DEVELOP ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE GREATER
POTENTIAL OF THIS OCCURRING LOOKS TO BE JUST WEST OF THE CWA OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH ONGOING
PRECIP HAS KEPT TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH OVER NORTHEAST/EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE CLOUD COVER COULD TRY TO BREAK UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S/80S ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH WARMER
TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST
POPS/WX/TEMPS BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND ALSO TWEAKED
SKY/WIND GRIDS AS WELL BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  71  86 /  10  10  10  40
FSM   67  86  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   68  87  69  88 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   67  88  67  85 /  10  10  10  60
FYV   63  83  65  85 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   62  81  64  85 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   68  86  68  87 /  10  10  10  30
MIO   67  86  68  85 /  10  10  10  40
F10   69  86  69  88 /  10  10  10  30
HHW   68  87  68  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 181746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1245 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE COMMON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. BVO LOOKS
TO HAVE THE GREATER CHANCE OF REPORTING PRECIP AMONG THE TAF
SITES AND WILL CARRY VCSH. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT WITH POSSIBLE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BY EARLY
MORNING FRIDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO VFR TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAD
WEAKENED INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTERACTING WITH UPGLIDE WINDS
AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA LEFTOVER FROM THE EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHILE THE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE CWA. THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WHERE THE AIRMASS HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER YET.
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WARMER TEMPS NEAR THE RED RIVER
COULD DEVELOP ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE GREATER
POTENTIAL OF THIS OCCURRING LOOKS TO BE JUST WEST OF THE CWA OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH ONGOING
PRECIP HAS KEPT TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH OVER NORTHEAST/EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE CLOUD COVER COULD TRY TO BREAK UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S/80S ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH WARMER
TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST
POPS/WX/TEMPS BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND ALSO TWEAKED
SKY/WIND GRIDS AS WELL BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  71  86 /  10  10  10  40
FSM   67  86  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   68  87  69  88 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   67  88  67  85 /  10  10  10  60
FYV   63  83  65  85 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   62  81  64  85 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   68  86  68  87 /  10  10  10  30
MIO   67  86  68  85 /  10  10  10  40
F10   69  86  69  88 /  10  10  10  30
HHW   68  87  68  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 181746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1245 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE COMMON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. BVO LOOKS
TO HAVE THE GREATER CHANCE OF REPORTING PRECIP AMONG THE TAF
SITES AND WILL CARRY VCSH. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT WITH POSSIBLE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BY EARLY
MORNING FRIDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO VFR TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAD
WEAKENED INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTERACTING WITH UPGLIDE WINDS
AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA LEFTOVER FROM THE EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHILE THE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE CWA. THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WHERE THE AIRMASS HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER YET.
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WARMER TEMPS NEAR THE RED RIVER
COULD DEVELOP ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE GREATER
POTENTIAL OF THIS OCCURRING LOOKS TO BE JUST WEST OF THE CWA OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH ONGOING
PRECIP HAS KEPT TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH OVER NORTHEAST/EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE CLOUD COVER COULD TRY TO BREAK UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S/80S ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH WARMER
TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST
POPS/WX/TEMPS BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND ALSO TWEAKED
SKY/WIND GRIDS AS WELL BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  71  86 /  10  10  10  40
FSM   67  86  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   68  87  69  88 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   67  88  67  85 /  10  10  10  60
FYV   63  83  65  85 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   62  81  64  85 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   68  86  68  87 /  10  10  10  30
MIO   67  86  68  85 /  10  10  10  40
F10   69  86  69  88 /  10  10  10  30
HHW   68  87  68  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 181746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1245 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE COMMON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. BVO LOOKS
TO HAVE THE GREATER CHANCE OF REPORTING PRECIP AMONG THE TAF
SITES AND WILL CARRY VCSH. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT WITH POSSIBLE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BY EARLY
MORNING FRIDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO VFR TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAD
WEAKENED INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTERACTING WITH UPGLIDE WINDS
AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA LEFTOVER FROM THE EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHILE THE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE CWA. THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WHERE THE AIRMASS HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER YET.
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WARMER TEMPS NEAR THE RED RIVER
COULD DEVELOP ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE GREATER
POTENTIAL OF THIS OCCURRING LOOKS TO BE JUST WEST OF THE CWA OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH ONGOING
PRECIP HAS KEPT TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH OVER NORTHEAST/EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE CLOUD COVER COULD TRY TO BREAK UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S/80S ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH WARMER
TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST
POPS/WX/TEMPS BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND ALSO TWEAKED
SKY/WIND GRIDS AS WELL BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  71  86 /  10  10  10  40
FSM   67  86  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   68  87  69  88 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   67  88  67  85 /  10  10  10  60
FYV   63  83  65  85 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   62  81  64  85 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   68  86  68  87 /  10  10  10  30
MIO   67  86  68  85 /  10  10  10  40
F10   69  86  69  88 /  10  10  10  30
HHW   68  87  68  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KOUN 181549 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1049 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION... CONTS TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE FA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY... ESPECIALLY IF IT SLOW DOWNS AND STALLS... THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL
REMAIN IN FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FA WHERE AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTS TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND NORTH TEXAS.
ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS SOME DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN/COOLER AIR EAST OF
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HOWEVER... SKIES WILL CLEAR IN SOME AREAS
AND SHOULD WARM UP QUICKLY WHEN SUN COMES OUT. UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

AVIATION...
AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS MAINLY BUILDING
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW AND
THIS MAY RESULT IN SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR PNC AND PERHAPS OKC/OUN.
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION IS RATHER DEEP...5K FEET PER
KINX VWP...AND THIS SHOULD REACH OKC/OUN AROUND 14-15Z. AREA OF
RAIN IN WEST TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF HBR/LAW/SPS.

AFTER THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN KANSAS DEVELOPED
EARLIER ALONG AN 8H THETA-E GRADIENT PER RAP13. WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO VEER SOME ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WEAKEN INTO THE
MORNING. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL IMPACT EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE MORNING. OUTFLOW/PROPAGATION MAY RESULT IN A
FEW STORMS SKIRTING NORTH CENTRAL AND PERHAPS COUNTIES EAST OF A
SEMINOLE TO LAKE TEXOMA LINE.

ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE AND BETTER MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...BUT
STILL MAY BRING SOME RAIN TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH REMNANTS OF ODILE. HAVE TRENDED WITH
THE EC THIS MORNING WHICH MOVES REMNANTS INTO MEAN RIDGE POSITION
WITH LITTLE OR NO HANDOFF INTO FASTER FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THIS MAY
SHIFT BETTER CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO WESTERN/SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE RAIN IS NEEDED.

WILL KEEP SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR
CUTOFF LOW THAT LIFTS/OPENS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  69  87  70 /  60  10  10  20
HOBART OK         88  69  86  70 /  30  10  20  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  70  88  71 /  40  20  30  20
GAGE OK           91  67  85  69 /  10  10  20  50
PONCA CITY OK     88  69  88  70 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         87  70  88  71 /  50  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/03



000
FXUS64 KTSA 181535
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1035 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAD
WEAKENED INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTERACTING WITH UPGLIDE WINDS
AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA LEFTOVER FROM THE EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHILE THE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE CWA. THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WHERE THE AIRMASS HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER YET.
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WARMER TEMPS NEAR THE RED RIVER
COULD DEVELOP ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE GREATER
POTENTIAL OF THIS OCCURRING LOOKS TO BE JUST WEST OF THE CWA OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH ONGOING
PRECIP HAS KEPT TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH OVER NORTHEAST/EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE CLOUD COVER COULD TRY TO BREAK UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S/80S ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH WARMER
TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST
POPS/WX/TEMPS BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND ALSO TWEAKED
SKY/WIND GRIDS AS WELL BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  69  88  71 /  60  10  10  10
FSM   83  67  86  69 /  50  10  10  10
MLC   84  68  87  69 /  50  10  10  10
BVO   81  67  88  67 /  80  10  10  10
FYV   78  63  83  65 /  50  10  10  10
BYV   79  62  81  64 /  50  10  10  10
MKO   81  68  86  68 /  70  10  10  10
MIO   78  67  86  68 /  70  10  10  10
F10   81  69  86  69 /  80  10  10  10
HHW   87  68  87  68 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 181535
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1035 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAD
WEAKENED INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTERACTING WITH UPGLIDE WINDS
AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA LEFTOVER FROM THE EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHILE THE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE CWA. THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WHERE THE AIRMASS HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER YET.
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WARMER TEMPS NEAR THE RED RIVER
COULD DEVELOP ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE GREATER
POTENTIAL OF THIS OCCURRING LOOKS TO BE JUST WEST OF THE CWA OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH ONGOING
PRECIP HAS KEPT TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH OVER NORTHEAST/EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE CLOUD COVER COULD TRY TO BREAK UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S/80S ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH WARMER
TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST
POPS/WX/TEMPS BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND ALSO TWEAKED
SKY/WIND GRIDS AS WELL BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  69  88  71 /  60  10  10  10
FSM   83  67  86  69 /  50  10  10  10
MLC   84  68  87  69 /  50  10  10  10
BVO   81  67  88  67 /  80  10  10  10
FYV   78  63  83  65 /  50  10  10  10
BYV   79  62  81  64 /  50  10  10  10
MKO   81  68  86  68 /  70  10  10  10
MIO   78  67  86  68 /  70  10  10  10
F10   81  69  86  69 /  80  10  10  10
HHW   87  68  87  68 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 181136
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
636 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A DECAYING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOST
SITES THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. SOME FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR LOWER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI IN THE VICINITY OF LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION MAXIMUM AND A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. STORMS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO MAKE A SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO INTO FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
MORNING PER HRRR...WHICH HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS
/WITH MINOR SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CORRECTIONS/ THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME HAIL AND WIND THREAT
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...ALTHOUGH OVERALL...THE FREQUENCY OF
STRONGER STORMS SHOULD LESSEN FROM EARLIER LEVELS. ALL MORNING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. UNLESS DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING
GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HIGHS
ARE LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE
LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKELY FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE MUCH ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF ODILE/S REMNANTS
AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT LEAD TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WITH AT LEAST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AS WITH
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...STILL THINK THAT THE HEAVIEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
FORECAST AREA TO BEAR WATCHING. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST
OF THE MODELS...LEAVING MUCH OF SATURDAY DRY AND LINGERING PRECIP
INTO MONDAY. HAVE DECREASED POPS A BIT SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH VALUES FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS FEATURED THEREAFTER.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 44...WITH ISOLATED 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS.

LARGELY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH MID RANGE MODELS DIVERGING IN THE EXPECTED
UPPER AIR PATTERN. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED LOW CHANCE POPS WITH
MINOR TWEAKS IN A NUDGE TO THE ECMWF.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 181136
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
636 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A DECAYING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOST
SITES THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. SOME FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR LOWER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI IN THE VICINITY OF LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION MAXIMUM AND A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. STORMS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO MAKE A SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO INTO FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
MORNING PER HRRR...WHICH HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS
/WITH MINOR SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CORRECTIONS/ THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME HAIL AND WIND THREAT
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...ALTHOUGH OVERALL...THE FREQUENCY OF
STRONGER STORMS SHOULD LESSEN FROM EARLIER LEVELS. ALL MORNING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. UNLESS DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING
GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HIGHS
ARE LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE
LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKELY FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE MUCH ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF ODILE/S REMNANTS
AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT LEAD TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WITH AT LEAST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AS WITH
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...STILL THINK THAT THE HEAVIEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
FORECAST AREA TO BEAR WATCHING. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST
OF THE MODELS...LEAVING MUCH OF SATURDAY DRY AND LINGERING PRECIP
INTO MONDAY. HAVE DECREASED POPS A BIT SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH VALUES FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS FEATURED THEREAFTER.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 44...WITH ISOLATED 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS.

LARGELY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH MID RANGE MODELS DIVERGING IN THE EXPECTED
UPPER AIR PATTERN. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED LOW CHANCE POPS WITH
MINOR TWEAKS IN A NUDGE TO THE ECMWF.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 181136
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
636 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A DECAYING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOST
SITES THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. SOME FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR LOWER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI IN THE VICINITY OF LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION MAXIMUM AND A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. STORMS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO MAKE A SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO INTO FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
MORNING PER HRRR...WHICH HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS
/WITH MINOR SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CORRECTIONS/ THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME HAIL AND WIND THREAT
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...ALTHOUGH OVERALL...THE FREQUENCY OF
STRONGER STORMS SHOULD LESSEN FROM EARLIER LEVELS. ALL MORNING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. UNLESS DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING
GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HIGHS
ARE LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE
LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKELY FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE MUCH ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF ODILE/S REMNANTS
AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT LEAD TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WITH AT LEAST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AS WITH
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...STILL THINK THAT THE HEAVIEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
FORECAST AREA TO BEAR WATCHING. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST
OF THE MODELS...LEAVING MUCH OF SATURDAY DRY AND LINGERING PRECIP
INTO MONDAY. HAVE DECREASED POPS A BIT SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH VALUES FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS FEATURED THEREAFTER.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 44...WITH ISOLATED 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS.

LARGELY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH MID RANGE MODELS DIVERGING IN THE EXPECTED
UPPER AIR PATTERN. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED LOW CHANCE POPS WITH
MINOR TWEAKS IN A NUDGE TO THE ECMWF.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 181136
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
636 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A DECAYING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOST
SITES THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. SOME FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR LOWER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI IN THE VICINITY OF LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION MAXIMUM AND A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. STORMS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO MAKE A SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO INTO FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
MORNING PER HRRR...WHICH HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS
/WITH MINOR SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CORRECTIONS/ THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME HAIL AND WIND THREAT
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...ALTHOUGH OVERALL...THE FREQUENCY OF
STRONGER STORMS SHOULD LESSEN FROM EARLIER LEVELS. ALL MORNING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. UNLESS DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING
GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HIGHS
ARE LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE
LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKELY FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE MUCH ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF ODILE/S REMNANTS
AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT LEAD TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WITH AT LEAST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AS WITH
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...STILL THINK THAT THE HEAVIEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
FORECAST AREA TO BEAR WATCHING. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST
OF THE MODELS...LEAVING MUCH OF SATURDAY DRY AND LINGERING PRECIP
INTO MONDAY. HAVE DECREASED POPS A BIT SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH VALUES FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS FEATURED THEREAFTER.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 44...WITH ISOLATED 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS.

LARGELY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH MID RANGE MODELS DIVERGING IN THE EXPECTED
UPPER AIR PATTERN. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED LOW CHANCE POPS WITH
MINOR TWEAKS IN A NUDGE TO THE ECMWF.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KOUN 181120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS MAINLY BUILDING
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW AND
THIS MAY RESULT IN SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR PNC AND PERHAPS OKC/OUN.
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION IS RATHER DEEP...5K FEET PER
KINX VWP...AND THIS SHOULD REACH OKC/OUN AROUND 14-15Z. AREA OF
RAIN IN WEST TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF HBR/LAW/SPS.

AFTER THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN KANSAS DEVELOPED
EARLIER ALONG AN 8H THETA-E GRADIENT PER RAP13. WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO VEER SOME ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WEAKEN INTO THE
MORNING. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL IMPACT EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE MORNING. OUTFLOW/PROPAGATION MAY RESULT IN A
FEW STORMS SKIRTING NORTH CENTRAL AND PERHAPS COUNTIES EAST OF A
SEMINOLE TO LAKE TEXOMA LINE.

ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE AND BETTER MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...BUT
STILL MAY BRING SOME RAIN TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH REMNANTS OF ODILE. HAVE TRENDED WITH
THE EC THIS MORNING WHICH MOVES REMNANTS INTO MEAN RIDGE POSITION
WITH LITTLE OR NO HANDOFF INTO FASTER FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THIS MAY
SHIFT BETTER CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO WESTERN/SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE RAIN IS NEEDED.

WILL KEEP SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR
CUTOFF LOW THAT LIFTS/OPENS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  69  87  70 /  30  10  10  20
HOBART OK         92  69  86  70 /  30  10  20  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  70  88  71 /  40  20  30  20
GAGE OK           91  67  85  69 /  10  10  20  50
PONCA CITY OK     88  69  88  70 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         90  70  88  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 181120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS MAINLY BUILDING
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW AND
THIS MAY RESULT IN SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR PNC AND PERHAPS OKC/OUN.
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION IS RATHER DEEP...5K FEET PER
KINX VWP...AND THIS SHOULD REACH OKC/OUN AROUND 14-15Z. AREA OF
RAIN IN WEST TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF HBR/LAW/SPS.

AFTER THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN KANSAS DEVELOPED
EARLIER ALONG AN 8H THETA-E GRADIENT PER RAP13. WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO VEER SOME ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WEAKEN INTO THE
MORNING. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL IMPACT EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE MORNING. OUTFLOW/PROPAGATION MAY RESULT IN A
FEW STORMS SKIRTING NORTH CENTRAL AND PERHAPS COUNTIES EAST OF A
SEMINOLE TO LAKE TEXOMA LINE.

ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE AND BETTER MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...BUT
STILL MAY BRING SOME RAIN TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH REMNANTS OF ODILE. HAVE TRENDED WITH
THE EC THIS MORNING WHICH MOVES REMNANTS INTO MEAN RIDGE POSITION
WITH LITTLE OR NO HANDOFF INTO FASTER FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THIS MAY
SHIFT BETTER CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO WESTERN/SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE RAIN IS NEEDED.

WILL KEEP SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR
CUTOFF LOW THAT LIFTS/OPENS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  69  87  70 /  30  10  10  20
HOBART OK         92  69  86  70 /  30  10  20  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  70  88  71 /  40  20  30  20
GAGE OK           91  67  85  69 /  10  10  20  50
PONCA CITY OK     88  69  88  70 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         90  70  88  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 180833
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
333 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI IN THE VICINITY OF LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION MAXIMUM AND A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. STORMS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO MAKE A SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO INTO FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
MORNING PER HRRR...WHICH HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS
/WITH MINOR SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CORRECTIONS/ THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME HAIL AND WIND THREAT
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...ALTHOUGH OVERALL...THE FREQUENCY OF
STRONGER STORMS SHOULD LESSEN FROM EARLIER LEVELS. ALL MORNING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. UNLESS DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING
GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HIGHS
ARE LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE
LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKELY FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE MUCH ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF ODILE/S REMNANTS
AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT LEAD TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WITH AT LEAST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AS WITH
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...STILL THINK THAT THE HEAVIEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
FORECAST AREA TO BEAR WATCHING. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST
OF THE MODELS...LEAVING MUCH OF SATURDAY DRY AND LINGERING PRECIP
INTO MONDAY. HAVE DECREASED POPS A BIT SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH VALUES FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS FEATURED THEREAFTER.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 44...WITH ISOLATED 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS.

LARGELY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH MID RANGE MODELS DIVERGING IN THE EXPECTED
UPPER AIR PATTERN. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED LOW CHANCE POPS WITH
MINOR TWEAKS IN A NUDGE TO THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  88  71 /  40  10  10  10
FSM   86  67  86  69 /  40  10  10  10
MLC   88  68  87  69 /  30  10  10  10
BVO   87  67  88  67 /  40  10  10  10
FYV   82  63  83  65 /  70  10  10  10
BYV   80  62  81  64 /  50  10  10  10
MKO   88  68  86  68 /  40  10  10  10
MIO   84  67  86  68 /  70  10  10  10
F10   88  69  86  69 /  30  10  10  10
HHW   88  68  87  68 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 180833
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
333 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI IN THE VICINITY OF LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION MAXIMUM AND A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. STORMS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO MAKE A SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO INTO FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
MORNING PER HRRR...WHICH HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS
/WITH MINOR SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CORRECTIONS/ THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME HAIL AND WIND THREAT
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...ALTHOUGH OVERALL...THE FREQUENCY OF
STRONGER STORMS SHOULD LESSEN FROM EARLIER LEVELS. ALL MORNING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. UNLESS DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING
GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HIGHS
ARE LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE
LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKELY FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE MUCH ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF ODILE/S REMNANTS
AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT LEAD TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WITH AT LEAST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AS WITH
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...STILL THINK THAT THE HEAVIEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
FORECAST AREA TO BEAR WATCHING. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST
OF THE MODELS...LEAVING MUCH OF SATURDAY DRY AND LINGERING PRECIP
INTO MONDAY. HAVE DECREASED POPS A BIT SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH VALUES FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS FEATURED THEREAFTER.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 44...WITH ISOLATED 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS.

LARGELY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH MID RANGE MODELS DIVERGING IN THE EXPECTED
UPPER AIR PATTERN. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED LOW CHANCE POPS WITH
MINOR TWEAKS IN A NUDGE TO THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  88  71 /  40  10  10  10
FSM   86  67  86  69 /  40  10  10  10
MLC   88  68  87  69 /  30  10  10  10
BVO   87  67  88  67 /  40  10  10  10
FYV   82  63  83  65 /  70  10  10  10
BYV   80  62  81  64 /  50  10  10  10
MKO   88  68  86  68 /  40  10  10  10
MIO   84  67  86  68 /  70  10  10  10
F10   88  69  86  69 /  30  10  10  10
HHW   88  68  87  68 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KOUN 180829
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN KANSAS DEVELOPED
EARLIER ALONG AN 8H THETA-E GRADIENT PER RAP13. WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO VEER SOME ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WEAKEN INTO THE
MORNING. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL IMPACT EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE MORNING. OUTFLOW/PROPAGATION MAY RESULT IN A
FEW STORMS SKIRTING NORTH CENTRAL AND PERHAPS COUNTIES EAST OF A
SEMINOLE TO LAKE TEXOMA LINE.

ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE AND BETTER MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...BUT
STILL MAY BRING SOME RAIN TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH REMNANTS OF ODILE. HAVE TRENDED WITH
THE EC THIS MORNING WHICH MOVES REMNANTS INTO MEAN RIDGE POSITION
WITH LITTLE OR NO HANDOFF INTO FASTER FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THIS MAY
SHIFT BETTER CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO WESTERN/SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE RAIN IS NEEDED.

WILL KEEP SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR
CUTOFF LOW THAT LIFTS/OPENS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  69  88  69 /  30  10  10  20
HOBART OK         91  69  88  69 /  30  10  20  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  70  89  71 /  30  20  20  20
GAGE OK           90  66  87  67 /  10  10  20  50
PONCA CITY OK     89  69  89  70 /  20  10  10  10
DURANT OK         89  69  88  70 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 180500
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AT KLAW AND KSPS FROM 08Z THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING AT KPNC. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND
SHIFT BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. SPOTTY SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM I-40 SOUTHWARD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO ANY ONE TERMINAL REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS MAINLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK
IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF W TX. LATER HRRR RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
ACTIVITY MOVING FROM KS INTO NRN OK OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS STILL LINGERING IN ERN OK AND SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA WILL ALSO LEAVE LOW POPS MAINLY E OF I-35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  90  69  88 /  10  30  10  10
HOBART OK         71  91  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  91  70  89 /  20  30  20  20
GAGE OK           64  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
DURANT OK         72  89  69  88 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 180500
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AT KLAW AND KSPS FROM 08Z THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING AT KPNC. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND
SHIFT BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. SPOTTY SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM I-40 SOUTHWARD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO ANY ONE TERMINAL REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS MAINLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK
IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF W TX. LATER HRRR RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
ACTIVITY MOVING FROM KS INTO NRN OK OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS STILL LINGERING IN ERN OK AND SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA WILL ALSO LEAVE LOW POPS MAINLY E OF I-35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  90  69  88 /  10  30  10  10
HOBART OK         71  91  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  91  70  89 /  20  30  20  20
GAGE OK           64  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
DURANT OK         72  89  69  88 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 180500
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AT KLAW AND KSPS FROM 08Z THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING AT KPNC. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND
SHIFT BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. SPOTTY SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM I-40 SOUTHWARD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO ANY ONE TERMINAL REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS MAINLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK
IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF W TX. LATER HRRR RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
ACTIVITY MOVING FROM KS INTO NRN OK OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS STILL LINGERING IN ERN OK AND SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA WILL ALSO LEAVE LOW POPS MAINLY E OF I-35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  90  69  88 /  10  30  10  10
HOBART OK         71  91  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  91  70  89 /  20  30  20  20
GAGE OK           64  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
DURANT OK         72  89  69  88 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 180500
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AT KLAW AND KSPS FROM 08Z THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING AT KPNC. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND
SHIFT BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. SPOTTY SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM I-40 SOUTHWARD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO ANY ONE TERMINAL REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS MAINLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK
IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF W TX. LATER HRRR RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
ACTIVITY MOVING FROM KS INTO NRN OK OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS STILL LINGERING IN ERN OK AND SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA WILL ALSO LEAVE LOW POPS MAINLY E OF I-35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  90  69  88 /  10  30  10  10
HOBART OK         71  91  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  91  70  89 /  20  30  20  20
GAGE OK           64  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
DURANT OK         72  89  69  88 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84




000
FXUS64 KTSA 180443
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1143 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL IMPACT
THE KMLC TAF SITE THROUGH 07Z. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF VCTS
FOR ALL SITES EXPECT KMLC AFTER 10-12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR CLAREMORE OKLAHOMA
TO NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SAG TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT SLOWLY
DISSIPATES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO LINGER FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE
STORMS MOVE INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS WILL COTINUE
TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  68  88 /  10  40  10  10
FSM   67  87  67  85 /  20  50  10  10
MLC   69  88  68  87 /  50  40  10  10
BVO   67  86  66  88 /  10  40  10  10
FYV   64  81  63  82 /  20  50  10  10
BYV   63  79  62  81 /  20  40  10  10
MKO   68  87  66  86 /  10  50  10  10
MIO   67  82  66  85 /  20  50  10  10
F10   69  88  68  87 /  60  40  10  10
HHW   70  88  68  87 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 180443
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1143 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL IMPACT
THE KMLC TAF SITE THROUGH 07Z. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF VCTS
FOR ALL SITES EXPECT KMLC AFTER 10-12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR CLAREMORE OKLAHOMA
TO NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SAG TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT SLOWLY
DISSIPATES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO LINGER FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE
STORMS MOVE INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS WILL COTINUE
TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  68  88 /  10  40  10  10
FSM   67  87  67  85 /  20  50  10  10
MLC   69  88  68  87 /  50  40  10  10
BVO   67  86  66  88 /  10  40  10  10
FYV   64  81  63  82 /  20  50  10  10
BYV   63  79  62  81 /  20  40  10  10
MKO   68  87  66  86 /  10  50  10  10
MIO   67  82  66  85 /  20  50  10  10
F10   69  88  68  87 /  60  40  10  10
HHW   70  88  68  87 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KOUN 180236
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
936 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS MAINLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK
IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF W TX. LATER HRRR RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
ACTIVITY MOVING FROM KS INTO NRN OK OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS STILL LINGERING IN ERN OK AND SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA WILL ALSO LEAVE LOW POPS MAINLY E OF I-35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  90  69  88 /  10  30  10  10
HOBART OK         71  91  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  91  70  89 /  20  30  20  20
GAGE OK           64  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
DURANT OK         72  89  69  88 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84



000
FXUS64 KOUN 180236
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
936 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS MAINLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK
IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF W TX. LATER HRRR RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
ACTIVITY MOVING FROM KS INTO NRN OK OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS STILL LINGERING IN ERN OK AND SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA WILL ALSO LEAVE LOW POPS MAINLY E OF I-35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  90  69  88 /  10  30  10  10
HOBART OK         71  91  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  91  70  89 /  20  30  20  20
GAGE OK           64  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
DURANT OK         72  89  69  88 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84




000
FXUS64 KTSA 180142
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
842 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR CLAREMORE OKLAHOMA
TO NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SAG TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT SLOWLY
DISSIPATES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO LINGER FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE
STORMS MOVE INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS WILL COTINUE
TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 180142
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
842 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR CLAREMORE OKLAHOMA
TO NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SAG TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT SLOWLY
DISSIPATES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO LINGER FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE
STORMS MOVE INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS WILL COTINUE
TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 172331
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
631 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...LIKELY WEAKENING AFTER 03Z. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN AND NEAR STORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
LATER TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCTS FOR TAF SITES (EXCEPT KMLC)
AFTER 08Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NW AR IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS WEAK
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTERACT. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY
STRENGTHENS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AS A WAVE CURRENTLY NOTED IN VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
RESULTANT FORECAST WILL TREND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR PRECIP
CHANCES TOMORROW ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK / WESTERN AR.

A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THE REMNANT
IMPULSE FROM ODILE WILL PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
AND INTERACT W/ A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS CURRENTLY RESIDING
OVER SOUTHERN TX WILL ALSO BE DRAWN NORTH AND EASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE EXACT INTERACTION W/ THESE FEATURES HAS YET TO BE
DETERMINED...HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A TREND THAT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION STALLS TO OUR WEST AND THUS THE HEAVIER PRECIP AXIS.
WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE LOCATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAS YET TO BE EXACTLY DETERMINED.

ONCE THE WEEKEND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES A PERIOD OF SEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  68  88 /  10  40  10  10
FSM   67  87  67  85 /  30  50  10  10
MLC   69  88  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
BVO   67  86  66  88 /  10  40  10  10
FYV   64  81  63  82 /  40  50  10  10
BYV   63  79  62  81 /  40  40  10  10
MKO   68  87  66  86 /  30  50  10  10
MIO   67  82  66  85 /  30  50  10  10
F10   69  88  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
HHW   70  88  68  87 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 172331
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
631 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...LIKELY WEAKENING AFTER 03Z. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN AND NEAR STORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
LATER TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCTS FOR TAF SITES (EXCEPT KMLC)
AFTER 08Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NW AR IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS WEAK
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTERACT. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY
STRENGTHENS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AS A WAVE CURRENTLY NOTED IN VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
RESULTANT FORECAST WILL TREND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR PRECIP
CHANCES TOMORROW ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK / WESTERN AR.

A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THE REMNANT
IMPULSE FROM ODILE WILL PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
AND INTERACT W/ A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS CURRENTLY RESIDING
OVER SOUTHERN TX WILL ALSO BE DRAWN NORTH AND EASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE EXACT INTERACTION W/ THESE FEATURES HAS YET TO BE
DETERMINED...HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A TREND THAT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION STALLS TO OUR WEST AND THUS THE HEAVIER PRECIP AXIS.
WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE LOCATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAS YET TO BE EXACTLY DETERMINED.

ONCE THE WEEKEND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES A PERIOD OF SEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  68  88 /  10  40  10  10
FSM   67  87  67  85 /  30  50  10  10
MLC   69  88  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
BVO   67  86  66  88 /  10  40  10  10
FYV   64  81  63  82 /  40  50  10  10
BYV   63  79  62  81 /  40  40  10  10
MKO   68  87  66  86 /  30  50  10  10
MIO   67  82  66  85 /  30  50  10  10
F10   69  88  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
HHW   70  88  68  87 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18





000
FXUS64 KOUN 172328
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR TSRA AT KSPS...WITH VCTS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS
THROUGH 02Z. WIND FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY ON THURS.
REGARDLESS...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG...AND
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL DESPITE SLIGHT DIRECTIONAL CHANGES.
ISOLATED TSRA MAY AFFECT TERMINALS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM 18Z TO 00Z THURS...BUT OPTED TO
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO SLIP INTO OUR TX
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE EVENING. AT LEAST LOW CHCS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE RIDGE
NEAR THE RED RIVER. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE RAIN CHCS INCREASE LATE FRI AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ODILE APPROACH THE WESTERN ZONES.

IN THE EXTENDED...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ODILE...CURRENTLY ACROSS MEXICO AND MOVING INTO THE U.S.
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE...COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TSRA POPS FOR OUR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY PERIODS. LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. A SOMEWHAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, BRIEFLY BRINGING IN JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  90  69  88 /  10  30  10  10
HOBART OK         71  91  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  91  70  89 /  20  30  20  20
GAGE OK           64  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
DURANT OK         72  89  69  88 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 172328
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR TSRA AT KSPS...WITH VCTS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS
THROUGH 02Z. WIND FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY ON THURS.
REGARDLESS...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG...AND
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL DESPITE SLIGHT DIRECTIONAL CHANGES.
ISOLATED TSRA MAY AFFECT TERMINALS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM 18Z TO 00Z THURS...BUT OPTED TO
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO SLIP INTO OUR TX
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE EVENING. AT LEAST LOW CHCS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE RIDGE
NEAR THE RED RIVER. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE RAIN CHCS INCREASE LATE FRI AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ODILE APPROACH THE WESTERN ZONES.

IN THE EXTENDED...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ODILE...CURRENTLY ACROSS MEXICO AND MOVING INTO THE U.S.
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE...COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TSRA POPS FOR OUR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY PERIODS. LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. A SOMEWHAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, BRIEFLY BRINGING IN JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  90  69  88 /  10  30  10  10
HOBART OK         71  91  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  91  70  89 /  20  30  20  20
GAGE OK           64  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
DURANT OK         72  89  69  88 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 172328
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR TSRA AT KSPS...WITH VCTS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS
THROUGH 02Z. WIND FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY ON THURS.
REGARDLESS...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG...AND
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL DESPITE SLIGHT DIRECTIONAL CHANGES.
ISOLATED TSRA MAY AFFECT TERMINALS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM 18Z TO 00Z THURS...BUT OPTED TO
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO SLIP INTO OUR TX
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE EVENING. AT LEAST LOW CHCS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE RIDGE
NEAR THE RED RIVER. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE RAIN CHCS INCREASE LATE FRI AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ODILE APPROACH THE WESTERN ZONES.

IN THE EXTENDED...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ODILE...CURRENTLY ACROSS MEXICO AND MOVING INTO THE U.S.
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE...COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TSRA POPS FOR OUR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY PERIODS. LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. A SOMEWHAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, BRIEFLY BRINGING IN JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  90  69  88 /  10  30  10  10
HOBART OK         71  91  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  91  70  89 /  20  30  20  20
GAGE OK           64  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
DURANT OK         72  89  69  88 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 172328
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR TSRA AT KSPS...WITH VCTS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS
THROUGH 02Z. WIND FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY ON THURS.
REGARDLESS...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG...AND
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL DESPITE SLIGHT DIRECTIONAL CHANGES.
ISOLATED TSRA MAY AFFECT TERMINALS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM 18Z TO 00Z THURS...BUT OPTED TO
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO SLIP INTO OUR TX
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE EVENING. AT LEAST LOW CHCS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE RIDGE
NEAR THE RED RIVER. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE RAIN CHCS INCREASE LATE FRI AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ODILE APPROACH THE WESTERN ZONES.

IN THE EXTENDED...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ODILE...CURRENTLY ACROSS MEXICO AND MOVING INTO THE U.S.
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE...COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TSRA POPS FOR OUR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY PERIODS. LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. A SOMEWHAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, BRIEFLY BRINGING IN JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  90  69  88 /  10  30  10  10
HOBART OK         71  91  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  91  70  89 /  20  30  20  20
GAGE OK           64  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
DURANT OK         72  89  69  88 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84




000
FXUS64 KTSA 172053
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NW AR IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS WEAK
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTERACT. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY
STRENGTHENS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AS A WAVE CURRENTLY NOTED IN VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
RESULTANT FORECAST WILL TREND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR PRECIP
CHANCES TOMORROW ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK / WESTERN AR.

A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THE REMNANT
IMPULSE FROM ODILE WILL PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
AND INTERACT W/ A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS CURRENTLY RESIDING
OVER SOUTHERN TX WILL ALSO BE DRAWN NORTH AND EASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE EXACT INTERACTION W/ THESE FEATURES HAS YET TO BE
DETERMINED...HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A TREND THAT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION STALLS TO OUR WEST AND THUS THE HEAVIER PRECIP AXIS.
WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE LOCATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAS YET TO BE EXACTLY DETERMINED.

ONCE THE WEEKEND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES A PERIOD OF SEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  68  88 /  10  40  10  10
FSM   67  87  67  85 /  30  50  10  10
MLC   69  88  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
BVO   67  86  66  88 /  10  40  10  10
FYV   64  81  63  82 /  40  50  10  10
BYV   63  79  62  81 /  40  40  10  10
MKO   68  87  66  86 /  30  50  10  10
MIO   67  82  66  85 /  30  50  10  10
F10   69  88  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
HHW   70  88  68  87 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 172053
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NW AR IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS WEAK
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTERACT. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY
STRENGTHENS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AS A WAVE CURRENTLY NOTED IN VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
RESULTANT FORECAST WILL TREND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR PRECIP
CHANCES TOMORROW ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK / WESTERN AR.

A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THE REMNANT
IMPULSE FROM ODILE WILL PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
AND INTERACT W/ A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS CURRENTLY RESIDING
OVER SOUTHERN TX WILL ALSO BE DRAWN NORTH AND EASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE EXACT INTERACTION W/ THESE FEATURES HAS YET TO BE
DETERMINED...HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A TREND THAT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION STALLS TO OUR WEST AND THUS THE HEAVIER PRECIP AXIS.
WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE LOCATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAS YET TO BE EXACTLY DETERMINED.

ONCE THE WEEKEND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES A PERIOD OF SEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  68  88 /  10  40  10  10
FSM   67  87  67  85 /  30  50  10  10
MLC   69  88  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
BVO   67  86  66  88 /  10  40  10  10
FYV   64  81  63  82 /  40  50  10  10
BYV   63  79  62  81 /  40  40  10  10
MKO   68  87  66  86 /  30  50  10  10
MIO   67  82  66  85 /  30  50  10  10
F10   69  88  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
HHW   70  88  68  87 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KOUN 172042
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
342 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO SLIP INTO OUR TX
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE EVENING. AT LEAST LOW CHCS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE RIDGE
NEAR THE RED RIVER. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE RAIN CHCS INCREASE LATE FRI AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ODILE APPROACH THE WESTERN ZONES.

IN THE EXTENDED...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ODILE...CURRENTLY ACROSS MEXICO AND MOVING INTO THE U.S.
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE...COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TSRA POPS FOR OUR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY PERIODS. LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. A SOMEWHAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, BRIEFLY BRINGING IN JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  69  86 /  10  20  10  10
HOBART OK         69  89  68  86 /  10  10  10  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  90  69  88 /  20  30  10  40
GAGE OK           65  90  66  86 /  10  10  10  40
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  69  87 /  20  20  10  10
DURANT OK         70  88  69  86 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 172042
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
342 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO SLIP INTO OUR TX
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE EVENING. AT LEAST LOW CHCS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE RIDGE
NEAR THE RED RIVER. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE RAIN CHCS INCREASE LATE FRI AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ODILE APPROACH THE WESTERN ZONES.

IN THE EXTENDED...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ODILE...CURRENTLY ACROSS MEXICO AND MOVING INTO THE U.S.
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE...COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TSRA POPS FOR OUR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY PERIODS. LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. A SOMEWHAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, BRIEFLY BRINGING IN JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  69  86 /  10  20  10  10
HOBART OK         69  89  68  86 /  10  10  10  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  90  69  88 /  20  30  10  40
GAGE OK           65  90  66  86 /  10  10  10  40
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  69  87 /  20  20  10  10
DURANT OK         70  88  69  86 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/03



000
FXUS64 KTSA 171850
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
150 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND ARE
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY OVER
THE REGION COMBINED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN HAZARDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WILL SEND AN AFTERNOON
UPDATE INCREASING POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ALSO TO
INCREASE TEMPS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A LACK OF INFLUENCE
FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS HELPED TEMPS
WARM INTO THE LOW 90S OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  69  89 /  30  30  10  10
FSM   68  85  67  87 /  40  40  10  10
MLC   71  87  68  86 /  20  30  10  10
BVO   67  87  67  88 /  40  30  10  10
FYV   65  83  64  84 /  60  40  10  10
BYV   64  80  64  82 /  60  40  10  10
MKO   68  86  67  86 /  20  40  10  10
MIO   67  84  66  85 /  60  40  10  10
F10   69  87  68  86 /  20  30  10  10
HHW   70  88  68  87 /  20  40  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....99






000
FXUS64 KOUN 171749
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ISOLATED -TSRA CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE COULD AFFECT TERMINAL KSPS, SO WILL MONITOR AND AMEND
THAT TERMINAL IF NECESSARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LIGHT FOG PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM ODILE WILL BE MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TWO AREAS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FORM THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS GRANT/KAY COUNTIES. BETTER WAA AND FLOW SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA TODAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR
SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WILL KEEP LOW
POPS ACROSS THIS AREA.

RAISED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON
FRIDAY AS GFS/EC ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING REMNANTS NEAR TEXAS/OK
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE EC IS SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES THIS WEEKEND...MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  69  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         90  69  89  68 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  90  71  90  69 /  20  20  30  10
GAGE OK           91  65  90  66 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     89  67  89  69 /  10  20  20  10
DURANT OK         89  70  88  69 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/03/67



000
FXUS64 KOUN 171749
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ISOLATED -TSRA CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE COULD AFFECT TERMINAL KSPS, SO WILL MONITOR AND AMEND
THAT TERMINAL IF NECESSARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LIGHT FOG PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM ODILE WILL BE MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TWO AREAS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FORM THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS GRANT/KAY COUNTIES. BETTER WAA AND FLOW SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA TODAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR
SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WILL KEEP LOW
POPS ACROSS THIS AREA.

RAISED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON
FRIDAY AS GFS/EC ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING REMNANTS NEAR TEXAS/OK
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE EC IS SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES THIS WEEKEND...MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  69  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         90  69  89  68 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  90  71  90  69 /  20  20  30  10
GAGE OK           91  65  90  66 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     89  67  89  69 /  10  20  20  10
DURANT OK         89  70  88  69 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/03/67



000
FXUS64 KOUN 171749
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ISOLATED -TSRA CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE COULD AFFECT TERMINAL KSPS, SO WILL MONITOR AND AMEND
THAT TERMINAL IF NECESSARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LIGHT FOG PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM ODILE WILL BE MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TWO AREAS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FORM THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS GRANT/KAY COUNTIES. BETTER WAA AND FLOW SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA TODAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR
SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WILL KEEP LOW
POPS ACROSS THIS AREA.

RAISED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON
FRIDAY AS GFS/EC ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING REMNANTS NEAR TEXAS/OK
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE EC IS SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES THIS WEEKEND...MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  69  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         90  69  89  68 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  90  71  90  69 /  20  20  30  10
GAGE OK           91  65  90  66 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     89  67  89  69 /  10  20  20  10
DURANT OK         89  70  88  69 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/03/67



000
FXUS64 KOUN 171749
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ISOLATED -TSRA CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE COULD AFFECT TERMINAL KSPS, SO WILL MONITOR AND AMEND
THAT TERMINAL IF NECESSARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LIGHT FOG PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM ODILE WILL BE MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TWO AREAS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FORM THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS GRANT/KAY COUNTIES. BETTER WAA AND FLOW SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA TODAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR
SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WILL KEEP LOW
POPS ACROSS THIS AREA.

RAISED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON
FRIDAY AS GFS/EC ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING REMNANTS NEAR TEXAS/OK
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE EC IS SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES THIS WEEKEND...MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  69  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         90  69  89  68 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  90  71  90  69 /  20  20  30  10
GAGE OK           91  65  90  66 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     89  67  89  69 /  10  20  20  10
DURANT OK         89  70  88  69 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/03/67



000
FXUS64 KTSA 171733
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1233 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN COMMON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
REGION INTERACTS WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE. GREATER PRECIP
CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND WILL ADD
VCTS/PROB30 GROUPS TO XNA/FYV/FSM. ALSO...PATCHY AREAS OF LOW
VIS/CIGS COULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT
BACK TO VFR WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL LEAVE OUT PRECIP MENTION FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING...WITH PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS STILL OBSERVING SOME
LOW CEILINGS/AREAS OF FOG. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE ATTENTION TURNING TOWARD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A MCS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WAS BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION COULD ALLOW FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE.

PARTY CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WARMER TEMPS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HIGHS IN UPPER 80S/LOW 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST MORNING
POPS/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND TO CLEAN UP ANY
EARLY MORNING WORDING IN THE ZONES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  69  89 /  30  30  10  10
FSM   68  85  67  87 /  40  40  10  10
MLC   71  87  68  86 /  20  30  10  10
BVO   67  87  67  88 /  40  30  10  10
FYV   65  83  64  84 /  60  40  10  10
BYV   64  80  64  82 /  60  40  10  10
MKO   68  86  67  86 /  20  40  10  10
MIO   67  84  66  85 /  60  40  10  10
F10   69  87  68  86 /  20  30  10  10
HHW   70  88  68  87 /  20  40  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 171517
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1017 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING...WITH PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS STILL OBSERVING SOME
LOW CEILINGS/AREAS OF FOG. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE ATTENTION TURNING TOWARD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A MCS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WAS BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION COULD ALLOW FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE.

PARTY CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WARMER TEMPS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HIGHS IN UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST MORNING
POPS/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND TO CLEAN UP ANY
EARLY MORNING WORDING IN THE ZONES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  88  69 /  10  30  30  10
FSM   86  68  85  67 /  20  40  40  10
MLC   88  71  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
BVO   90  67  87  67 /  10  40  30  10
FYV   83  65  83  64 /  30  60  40  10
BYV   82  64  80  64 /  50  60  40  10
MKO   87  68  86  67 /  10  20  40  10
MIO   85  67  84  66 /  50  60  40  10
F10   87  69  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
HHW   88  70  88  68 /  10  20  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 171517
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1017 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING...WITH PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS STILL OBSERVING SOME
LOW CEILINGS/AREAS OF FOG. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE ATTENTION TURNING TOWARD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A MCS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WAS BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION COULD ALLOW FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE.

PARTY CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WARMER TEMPS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HIGHS IN UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST MORNING
POPS/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND TO CLEAN UP ANY
EARLY MORNING WORDING IN THE ZONES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  88  69 /  10  30  30  10
FSM   86  68  85  67 /  20  40  40  10
MLC   88  71  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
BVO   90  67  87  67 /  10  40  30  10
FYV   83  65  83  64 /  30  60  40  10
BYV   82  64  80  64 /  50  60  40  10
MKO   87  68  86  67 /  10  20  40  10
MIO   85  67  84  66 /  50  60  40  10
F10   87  69  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
HHW   88  70  88  68 /  10  20  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 171517
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1017 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING...WITH PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS STILL OBSERVING SOME
LOW CEILINGS/AREAS OF FOG. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE ATTENTION TURNING TOWARD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A MCS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WAS BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION COULD ALLOW FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE.

PARTY CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WARMER TEMPS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HIGHS IN UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST MORNING
POPS/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND TO CLEAN UP ANY
EARLY MORNING WORDING IN THE ZONES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  88  69 /  10  30  30  10
FSM   86  68  85  67 /  20  40  40  10
MLC   88  71  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
BVO   90  67  87  67 /  10  40  30  10
FYV   83  65  83  64 /  30  60  40  10
BYV   82  64  80  64 /  50  60  40  10
MKO   87  68  86  67 /  10  20  40  10
MIO   85  67  84  66 /  50  60  40  10
F10   87  69  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
HHW   88  70  88  68 /  10  20  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 171517
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1017 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING...WITH PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS STILL OBSERVING SOME
LOW CEILINGS/AREAS OF FOG. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE ATTENTION TURNING TOWARD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A MCS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WAS BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION COULD ALLOW FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE.

PARTY CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WARMER TEMPS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HIGHS IN UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST MORNING
POPS/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND TO CLEAN UP ANY
EARLY MORNING WORDING IN THE ZONES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  88  69 /  10  30  30  10
FSM   86  68  85  67 /  20  40  40  10
MLC   88  71  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
BVO   90  67  87  67 /  10  40  30  10
FYV   83  65  83  64 /  30  60  40  10
BYV   82  64  80  64 /  50  60  40  10
MKO   87  68  86  67 /  10  20  40  10
MIO   85  67  84  66 /  50  60  40  10
F10   87  69  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
HHW   88  70  88  68 /  10  20  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KOUN 171159
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
659 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LIGHT FOG PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM ODILE WILL BE MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TWO AREAS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FORM THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS GRANT/KAY COUNTIES. BETTER WAA AND FLOW SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA TODAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR
SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WILL KEEP LOW
POPS ACROSS THIS AREA.

RAISED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON
FRIDAY AS GFS/EC ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING REMNANTS NEAR TEXAS/OK
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE EC IS SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES THIS WEEKEND...MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  69  86 /  10  20  10  10
HOBART OK         69  89  68  86 /  10  10  10  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  90  69  88 /  20  30  10  40
GAGE OK           65  90  66  86 /  10  10  10  40
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  69  87 /  20  20  10  10
DURANT OK         70  88  69  86 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 171159
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
659 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LIGHT FOG PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM ODILE WILL BE MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TWO AREAS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FORM THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS GRANT/KAY COUNTIES. BETTER WAA AND FLOW SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA TODAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR
SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WILL KEEP LOW
POPS ACROSS THIS AREA.

RAISED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON
FRIDAY AS GFS/EC ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING REMNANTS NEAR TEXAS/OK
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE EC IS SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES THIS WEEKEND...MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  69  86 /  10  20  10  10
HOBART OK         69  89  68  86 /  10  10  10  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  90  69  88 /  20  30  10  40
GAGE OK           65  90  66  86 /  10  10  10  40
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  69  87 /  20  20  10  10
DURANT OK         70  88  69  86 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 171159
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
659 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LIGHT FOG PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM ODILE WILL BE MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TWO AREAS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FORM THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS GRANT/KAY COUNTIES. BETTER WAA AND FLOW SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA TODAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR
SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WILL KEEP LOW
POPS ACROSS THIS AREA.

RAISED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON
FRIDAY AS GFS/EC ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING REMNANTS NEAR TEXAS/OK
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE EC IS SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES THIS WEEKEND...MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  69  86 /  10  20  10  10
HOBART OK         69  89  68  86 /  10  10  10  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  90  69  88 /  20  30  10  40
GAGE OK           65  90  66  86 /  10  10  10  40
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  69  87 /  20  20  10  10
DURANT OK         70  88  69  86 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 171159
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
659 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LIGHT FOG PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM ODILE WILL BE MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TWO AREAS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FORM THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS GRANT/KAY COUNTIES. BETTER WAA AND FLOW SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA TODAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR
SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WILL KEEP LOW
POPS ACROSS THIS AREA.

RAISED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON
FRIDAY AS GFS/EC ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING REMNANTS NEAR TEXAS/OK
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE EC IS SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES THIS WEEKEND...MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  69  86 /  10  20  10  10
HOBART OK         69  89  68  86 /  10  10  10  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  90  69  88 /  20  30  10  40
GAGE OK           65  90  66  86 /  10  10  10  40
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  69  87 /  20  20  10  10
DURANT OK         70  88  69  86 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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