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000
FXUS64 KOUN 292049
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
349 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. FLOODING CONCERNS WILL PRIMARILY BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IN EFFECT. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF QPF SIGNAL IS MOST COINCIDENT
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THERE ALSO IS A SIGNAL THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY REINTENSIFY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...A SECOND MAXIMUM OF PRECIPITATION MIGHT OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN OUR CWA. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LOW 90S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE THE LOWEST. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH.

AFTER THURSDAY...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN NORTHERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM 17 TO 19 DEGREES C
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-80S ON FRIDAY. THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY AT OR BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL AFTER THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  76  65  78 /  60  90  90  30
HOBART OK         66  83  66  81 /  70  70  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  68  83 /  30  30  60  20
GAGE OK           64  74  62  81 /  90  90  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     69  72  64  80 /  70  90  50  20
DURANT OK         72  81  66  78 /  20  50  90  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 292049
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
349 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. FLOODING CONCERNS WILL PRIMARILY BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IN EFFECT. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF QPF SIGNAL IS MOST COINCIDENT
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THERE ALSO IS A SIGNAL THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY REINTENSIFY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...A SECOND MAXIMUM OF PRECIPITATION MIGHT OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN OUR CWA. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LOW 90S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE THE LOWEST. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH.

AFTER THURSDAY...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN NORTHERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM 17 TO 19 DEGREES C
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-80S ON FRIDAY. THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY AT OR BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL AFTER THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  76  65  78 /  60  90  90  30
HOBART OK         66  83  66  81 /  70  70  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  68  83 /  30  30  60  20
GAGE OK           64  74  62  81 /  90  90  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     69  72  64  80 /  70  90  50  20
DURANT OK         72  81  66  78 /  20  50  90  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/10



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000
FXUS64 KTSA 291746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1246 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS/LOWER VISIBILITIES
IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER GIVEN LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 291746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1246 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS/LOWER VISIBILITIES
IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER GIVEN LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KOUN 291745
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
A LINE OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL AFFECT CSM AND HBR
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE DISSIPATING. LATER THIS EVENING...A
STORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT MOST TAF
SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL OCCUR MOST OF
THE DAY IN PART OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO ADJUSTED THERE. RAIN NOW IN SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SHOWERS THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE MORE COMPREHENSIVE RAIN EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN VERY LATE TUESDAY
EVENING OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  76  65  78 /  60  90  70  30
HOBART OK         66  83  66  81 /  60  60  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  68  83 /  40  30  50  30
GAGE OK           64  74  62  81 / 100  80  50  10
PONCA CITY OK     69  72  64  80 /  60  90  40  20
DURANT OK         72  81  66  78 /  30  50  80  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 291745
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
A LINE OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL AFFECT CSM AND HBR
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE DISSIPATING. LATER THIS EVENING...A
STORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT MOST TAF
SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL OCCUR MOST OF
THE DAY IN PART OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO ADJUSTED THERE. RAIN NOW IN SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SHOWERS THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE MORE COMPREHENSIVE RAIN EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN VERY LATE TUESDAY
EVENING OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  76  65  78 /  60  90  70  30
HOBART OK         66  83  66  81 /  60  60  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  68  83 /  40  30  50  30
GAGE OK           64  74  62  81 / 100  80  50  10
PONCA CITY OK     69  72  64  80 /  60  90  40  20
DURANT OK         72  81  66  78 /  30  50  80  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/14



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291614
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1114 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER GIVEN LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12







000
FXUS64 KOUN 291502
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1002 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL OCCUR MOST OF
THE DAY IN PART OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO ADJUSTED THERE. RAIN NOW IN SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SHOWERS THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE MORE COMPREHENSIVE RAIN EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN VERY LATE TUESDAY
EVENING OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  76  65 /  10  60  90  70
HOBART OK         85  66  83  66 /  70  60  60  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  70  88  68 /  40  40  30  50
GAGE OK           82  64  74  62 /  50 100  80  50
PONCA CITY OK     87  69  72  64 /  10  60  90  40
DURANT OK         90  72  81  66 /  20  30  50  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291502
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1002 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL OCCUR MOST OF
THE DAY IN PART OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO ADJUSTED THERE. RAIN NOW IN SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SHOWERS THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE MORE COMPREHENSIVE RAIN EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN VERY LATE TUESDAY
EVENING OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  76  65 /  10  60  90  70
HOBART OK         85  66  83  66 /  70  60  60  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  70  88  68 /  40  40  30  50
GAGE OK           82  64  74  62 /  50 100  80  50
PONCA CITY OK     87  69  72  64 /  10  60  90  40
DURANT OK         90  72  81  66 /  20  30  50  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 291145
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
645 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THIS EVENING...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.  MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
THE STORMS...MAY IMPACT GAG/WWR AFTER 5/6Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK WAA THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS OF FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THIS EVENING...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. THE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGH PW`S NEAR 2 INCHES AND A MODERATE LEVEL JET WILL
RESULT IN STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEAR A
DEVELOPING ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL END ON THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FA WILL REMAIN
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  76  65 /  20  60  90  70
HOBART OK         85  66  83  66 /  40  60  60  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  70  88  68 /  30  40  30  50
GAGE OK           82  64  74  62 /  40 100  80  50
PONCA CITY OK     87  69  72  64 /  10  60  90  40
DURANT OK         90  72  81  66 /  20  30  50  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291104
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
604 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE AR TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 18 TO 20 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD AT THE OK TERMINALS. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AFTER
08-09Z AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z...WITH RAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
OK TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
PRECIP SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THE DEVELOPING PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCREASED
ACCORDINGLY.

CURRENT VAPOR IMAGERY HAS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN REGION WITHIN THE MONSOONAL
FLOW. THIS FEATURE WILL TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WED/THURS. LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES RESPOND WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING. FURTHERMORE AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE
ALIGNS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH PRECIP WATER GREATER THAN 2
INCHES FORECAST. THE RESULTANT PRECIP PATTERN WILL TAKE THE SHAPE
OF A CYCLONE MORE TYPICAL OF FALL/WINTER WITH AN EXPANDING WARM
ADVECTION ZONE FOLLOWED BY A REGION OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP AS THE
SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
THE RESULT WITH THE LATEST DATA TRENDING NORTHWARD AND A BIT
HEAVIER WITH THE OVERALL AMOUNTS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
CONSIDERED HOWEVER CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AND EXPECTED
DURATION OF THE RAINFALL CURRENTLY SEEM LESS SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD
FLOODING. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY REQUIRE A
DOUBLE TAKE...HOWEVER GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY.

CONDITIONS DRY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE NORMALLY PREVALENT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT FAILS TO REORGANIZE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KOUN 290928
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
428 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK WAA THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS OF FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THIS EVENING...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. THE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGH PW`S NEAR 2 INCHES AND A MODERATE LEVEL JET WILL
RESULT IN STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEAR A
DEVELOPING ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL END ON THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FA WILL REMAIN
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  76  65 /  20  60  90  70
HOBART OK         85  66  83  66 /  40  60  60  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  70  88  68 /  30  40  30  50
GAGE OK           82  64  74  62 /  40 100  80  50
PONCA CITY OK     87  69  72  64 /  10  60  90  40
DURANT OK         90  72  81  66 /  20  30  50  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 290928
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
428 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK WAA THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS OF FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THIS EVENING...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. THE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGH PW`S NEAR 2 INCHES AND A MODERATE LEVEL JET WILL
RESULT IN STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEAR A
DEVELOPING ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL END ON THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FA WILL REMAIN
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  76  65 /  20  60  90  70
HOBART OK         85  66  83  66 /  40  60  60  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  70  88  68 /  30  40  30  50
GAGE OK           82  64  74  62 /  40 100  80  50
PONCA CITY OK     87  69  72  64 /  10  60  90  40
DURANT OK         90  72  81  66 /  20  30  50  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 290928
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
428 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK WAA THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS OF FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THIS EVENING...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. THE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGH PW`S NEAR 2 INCHES AND A MODERATE LEVEL JET WILL
RESULT IN STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEAR A
DEVELOPING ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL END ON THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FA WILL REMAIN
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  76  65 /  20  60  90  70
HOBART OK         85  66  83  66 /  40  60  60  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  70  88  68 /  30  40  30  50
GAGE OK           82  64  74  62 /  40 100  80  50
PONCA CITY OK     87  69  72  64 /  10  60  90  40
DURANT OK         90  72  81  66 /  20  30  50  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 290928
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
428 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK WAA THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS OF FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THIS EVENING...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. THE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGH PW`S NEAR 2 INCHES AND A MODERATE LEVEL JET WILL
RESULT IN STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEAR A
DEVELOPING ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL END ON THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FA WILL REMAIN
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  76  65 /  20  60  90  70
HOBART OK         85  66  83  66 /  40  60  60  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  70  88  68 /  30  40  30  50
GAGE OK           82  64  74  62 /  40 100  80  50
PONCA CITY OK     87  69  72  64 /  10  60  90  40
DURANT OK         90  72  81  66 /  20  30  50  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 290855
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
355 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
PRECIP SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THE DEVELOPING PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCREASED
ACCORDINGLY.

CURRENT VAPOR IMAGERY HAS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN REGION WITHIN THE MONSOONAL
FLOW. THIS FEATURE WILL TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WED/THURS. LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES RESPOND WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING. FURTHERMORE AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE
ALIGNS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH PRECIP WATER GREATER THAN 2
INCHES FORECAST. THE RESULTANT PRECIP PATTERN WILL TAKE THE SHAPE
OF A CYCLONE MORE TYPICAL OF FALL/WINTER WITH AN EXPANDING WARM
ADVECTION ZONE FOLLOWED BY A REGION OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP AS THE
SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
THE RESULT WITH THE LATEST DATA TRENDING NORTHWARD AND A BIT
HEAVIER WITH THE OVERALL AMOUNTS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
CONSIDERED HOWEVER CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AND EXPECTED
DURATION OF THE RAINFALL CURRENTLY SEEM LESS SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD
FLOODING. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY REQUIRE A
DOUBLE TAKE...HOWEVER GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY.

CONDITIONS DRY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE NORMALLY PREVALENT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT FAILS TO REORGANIZE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  67  71  61 /   0  30 100  80
FSM   88  66  75  64 /   0  10  70  90
MLC   89  66  73  64 /   0  50  70  90
BVO   88  64  73  58 /   0  20  70  60
FYV   84  61  73  57 /   0  10  60  80
BYV   83  59  74  58 /   0   0  50  60
MKO   88  66  70  61 /   0  20 100  80
MIO   85  62  75  60 /   0  10  60  40
F10   88  65  69  62 /   0  50  90  90
HHW   89  68  77  65 /   0  20  50  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KOUN 290451
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1151 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 06Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY 12Z
TO 15Z TUES...BECOMING SOUTHERLY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS AND TRACK EASTWARD
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AFTER 18Z.
MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS WITH
HEAVIER SHOWERS. OCCASIONAL THUNDER CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST...AFFECTING
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS AFTER 06Z WED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...
SMALL AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT AND MOVE JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
OKC. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT STILL IN
SOME OF THE MODELS SO WILL NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM GOING POPS.
LATEST WRF MODEL TRENDING TOWARD THE ECM AND BRINGING AXIS OF
GREATEST RAIN AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH OVER BODY OF OKLAHOMA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BKN MID
LEVEL CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR KGAG/KWWR DOWN TO
KLAW/KSPS...AS ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE AND EVENTUALLY SW OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO SW
OK AND N TX IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIMEFRAME. OTHER SCT SHRA MAY
DEVELOP AT KCSM/KHBR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT SOME TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUPS AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SPREADING EAST
WITH TIME.

A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING VERY
HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN. THIS RAIN MAY BE HEAVY...AND FLOODING MAY
BECOME A PROBLEM.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT. ONLY SPORADIC
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...IF ANYTHING...THIS WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK...PARTLY DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND PARTLY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  87  67  76 /  10  20  60  80
HOBART OK         67  84  66  82 /  30  40  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  89  70  93 /  20  30  40  40
GAGE OK           65  80  64  75 /  30  40  80  70
PONCA CITY OK     64  85  66  77 /   0  10  60  80
DURANT OK         70  92  70  81 /  10  20  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/84



000
FXUS64 KTSA 290450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A RATHER DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATE
PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  90  69  75 /   0  10  30  80
FSM   65  89  69  77 /   0   0  10  70
MLC   65  90  69  78 /   0  10  30  80
BVO   60  89  67  74 /   0  10  40  60
FYV   57  83  63  74 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   58  82  62  75 /   0   0  10  50
MKO   63  89  68  75 /   0   0  20  80
MIO   60  85  65  76 /   0  10  20  40
F10   65  89  69  75 /   0  10  30  80
HHW   67  90  69  83 /   0  10  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99







000
FXUS64 KTSA 290450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A RATHER DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATE
PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  90  69  75 /   0  10  30  80
FSM   65  89  69  77 /   0   0  10  70
MLC   65  90  69  78 /   0  10  30  80
BVO   60  89  67  74 /   0  10  40  60
FYV   57  83  63  74 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   58  82  62  75 /   0   0  10  50
MKO   63  89  68  75 /   0   0  20  80
MIO   60  85  65  76 /   0  10  20  40
F10   65  89  69  75 /   0  10  30  80
HHW   67  90  69  83 /   0  10  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99






000
FXUS64 KOUN 290254
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
954 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SMALL AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT AND MOVE JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
OKC. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT STILL IN
SOME OF THE MODELS SO WILL NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM GOING POPS.
LATEST WRF MODEL TRENDING TOWARD THE ECM AND BRINGING AXIS OF
GREATEST RAIN AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH OVER BODY OF OKLAHOMA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BKN MID
LEVEL CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR KGAG/KWWR DOWN TO
KLAW/KSPS...AS ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE AND EVENTUALLY SW OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO SW
OK AND N TX IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIMEFRAME. OTHER SCT SHRA MAY
DEVELOP AT KCSM/KHBR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT SOME TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUPS AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SPREADING EAST
WITH TIME.

A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING VERY
HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN. THIS RAIN MAY BE HEAVY...AND FLOODING MAY
BECOME A PROBLEM.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT. ONLY SPORADIC
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...IF ANYTHING...THIS WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK...PARTLY DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND PARTLY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  87  67  76 /  10  20  60  80
HOBART OK         67  84  66  82 /  30  40  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  89  70  93 /  20  30  40  40
GAGE OK           65  80  64  75 /  30  40  80  70
PONCA CITY OK     64  85  66  77 /   0  10  60  80
DURANT OK         70  92  70  81 /  10  20  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 290254
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
954 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SMALL AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT AND MOVE JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
OKC. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT STILL IN
SOME OF THE MODELS SO WILL NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM GOING POPS.
LATEST WRF MODEL TRENDING TOWARD THE ECM AND BRINGING AXIS OF
GREATEST RAIN AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH OVER BODY OF OKLAHOMA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BKN MID
LEVEL CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR KGAG/KWWR DOWN TO
KLAW/KSPS...AS ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE AND EVENTUALLY SW OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO SW
OK AND N TX IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIMEFRAME. OTHER SCT SHRA MAY
DEVELOP AT KCSM/KHBR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT SOME TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUPS AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SPREADING EAST
WITH TIME.

A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING VERY
HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN. THIS RAIN MAY BE HEAVY...AND FLOODING MAY
BECOME A PROBLEM.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT. ONLY SPORADIC
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...IF ANYTHING...THIS WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK...PARTLY DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND PARTLY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  87  67  76 /  10  20  60  80
HOBART OK         67  84  66  82 /  30  40  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  89  70  93 /  20  30  40  40
GAGE OK           65  80  64  75 /  30  40  80  70
PONCA CITY OK     64  85  66  77 /   0  10  60  80
DURANT OK         70  92  70  81 /  10  20  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/84



000
FXUS64 KTSA 290238
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
938 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATE
PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  90  69  75 /   0  10  30  80
FSM   65  89  69  77 /   0   0  10  70
MLC   65  90  69  78 /   0  10  30  80
BVO   60  89  67  74 /   0  10  40  60
FYV   57  83  63  74 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   58  82  62  75 /   0   0  10  50
MKO   63  89  68  75 /   0   0  20  80
MIO   60  85  65  76 /   0  10  20  40
F10   65  89  69  75 /   0  10  30  80
HHW   67  90  69  83 /   0  10  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 290238
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
938 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATE
PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  90  69  75 /   0  10  30  80
FSM   65  89  69  77 /   0   0  10  70
MLC   65  90  69  78 /   0  10  30  80
BVO   60  89  67  74 /   0  10  40  60
FYV   57  83  63  74 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   58  82  62  75 /   0   0  10  50
MKO   63  89  68  75 /   0   0  20  80
MIO   60  85  65  76 /   0  10  20  40
F10   65  89  69  75 /   0  10  30  80
HHW   67  90  69  83 /   0  10  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....18






000
FXUS64 KOUN 282319
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
619 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BKN MID
LEVEL CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR KGAG/KWWR DOWN TO
KLAW/KSPS...AS ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE AND EVENTUALLY SW OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO SW
OK AND N TX IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIMEFRAME. OTHER SCT SHRA MAY
DEVELOP AT KCSM/KHBR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT SOME TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SPREADING EAST
WITH TIME.

A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING VERY
HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN. THIS RAIN MAY BE HEAVY...AND FLOODING MAY
BECOME A PROBLEM.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT. ONLY SPORADIC
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...IF ANYTHING...THIS WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK...PARTLY DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND PARTLY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  87  67  76 /  10  20  60  80
HOBART OK         68  84  66  82 /  20  40  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  89  70  93 /  20  30  40  40
GAGE OK           67  80  64  75 /  30  40  80  70
PONCA CITY OK     65  85  66  77 /   0  10  60  80
DURANT OK         69  92  70  81 /  20  20  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 282319
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
619 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BKN MID
LEVEL CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR KGAG/KWWR DOWN TO
KLAW/KSPS...AS ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE AND EVENTUALLY SW OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO SW
OK AND N TX IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIMEFRAME. OTHER SCT SHRA MAY
DEVELOP AT KCSM/KHBR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT SOME TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SPREADING EAST
WITH TIME.

A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING VERY
HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN. THIS RAIN MAY BE HEAVY...AND FLOODING MAY
BECOME A PROBLEM.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT. ONLY SPORADIC
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...IF ANYTHING...THIS WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK...PARTLY DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND PARTLY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  87  67  76 /  10  20  60  80
HOBART OK         68  84  66  82 /  20  40  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  89  70  93 /  20  30  40  40
GAGE OK           67  80  64  75 /  30  40  80  70
PONCA CITY OK     65  85  66  77 /   0  10  60  80
DURANT OK         69  92  70  81 /  20  20  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/84



000
FXUS64 KTSA 282318
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
618 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPS BEING OBSERVED FOR
THE CWA. SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SKIES LOOK TO SCATTER OUT HELPING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH UPPER 50S POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SPOTS
OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING SOUTHWARD WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE
BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH OUT OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY.
THUS...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY EVENING...SPREADING ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH COULD DECREASE THE
OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THUS...HAVE DROPPED THUNDER
POTENTIAL TO CHANCE/SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND MORE
SLIGHT/ISOLATED CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
OF OVER 2 INCHES ARE SUGGESTED OVER THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE
POSSIBLE. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE
AT THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATER POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. HAVE USED A MODEL BLENDED SOLUTION WITH EXCEPTION OF THE
NAM FOR THIS FORECAST. LIKE THE LAST BIG PRECIP EVENT...THE NAM
LOOKS TO BE TO FAR NORTH WITH ITS PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP.
PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION.

TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY. WIDESPREAD PRECIP...CLOUDY SKIES
AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
IN THE 70S. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP DEVELOPS...SOME
LOCATIONS COULD BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...ANOTHER COOL WEEK IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM BACK
INTO THE 80S AND CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 282318
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
618 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPS BEING OBSERVED FOR
THE CWA. SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SKIES LOOK TO SCATTER OUT HELPING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH UPPER 50S POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SPOTS
OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING SOUTHWARD WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE
BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH OUT OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY.
THUS...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY EVENING...SPREADING ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH COULD DECREASE THE
OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THUS...HAVE DROPPED THUNDER
POTENTIAL TO CHANCE/SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND MORE
SLIGHT/ISOLATED CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
OF OVER 2 INCHES ARE SUGGESTED OVER THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE
POSSIBLE. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE
AT THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATER POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. HAVE USED A MODEL BLENDED SOLUTION WITH EXCEPTION OF THE
NAM FOR THIS FORECAST. LIKE THE LAST BIG PRECIP EVENT...THE NAM
LOOKS TO BE TO FAR NORTH WITH ITS PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP.
PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION.

TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY. WIDESPREAD PRECIP...CLOUDY SKIES
AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
IN THE 70S. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP DEVELOPS...SOME
LOCATIONS COULD BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...ANOTHER COOL WEEK IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM BACK
INTO THE 80S AND CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KTSA 282110
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
410 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPS BEING OBSERVED FOR
THE CWA. SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SKIES LOOK TO SCATTER OUT HELPING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH UPPER 50S POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SPOTS
OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING SOUTHWARD WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE
BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH OUT OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY.
THUS...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY EVENING...SPREADING ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH COULD DECREASE THE
OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THUS...HAVE DROPPED THUNDER
POTENTIAL TO CHANCE/SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND MORE
SLIGHT/ISOLATED CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
OF OVER 2 INCHES ARE SUGGESTED OVER THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE
POSSIBLE. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE
AT THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATER POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. HAVE USED A MODEL BLENDED SOLUTION WITH EXCEPTION OF THE
NAM FOR THIS FORECAST. LIKE THE LAST BIG PRECIP EVENT...THE NAM
LOOKS TO BE TO FAR NORTH WITH ITS PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP.
PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION.

TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY. WIDESPREAD PRECIP...CLOUDY SKIES
AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
IN THE 70S. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP DEVELOPS...SOME
LOCATIONS COULD BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...ANOTHER COOL WEEK IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM BACK
INTO THE 80S AND CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  90  69  75 /   0  10  30  80
FSM   65  89  69  77 /   0   0  10  70
MLC   65  90  69  78 /   0  10  30  80
BVO   60  89  67  74 /   0  10  40  60
FYV   57  83  63  74 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   58  82  62  75 /   0   0  10  50
MKO   63  89  68  75 /   0   0  20  80
MIO   60  85  65  76 /   0  10  20  40
F10   65  89  69  75 /   0  10  30  80
HHW   67  90  69  83 /   0  10  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 282110
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
410 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPS BEING OBSERVED FOR
THE CWA. SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SKIES LOOK TO SCATTER OUT HELPING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH UPPER 50S POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SPOTS
OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING SOUTHWARD WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE
BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH OUT OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY.
THUS...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY EVENING...SPREADING ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH COULD DECREASE THE
OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THUS...HAVE DROPPED THUNDER
POTENTIAL TO CHANCE/SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND MORE
SLIGHT/ISOLATED CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
OF OVER 2 INCHES ARE SUGGESTED OVER THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE
POSSIBLE. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE
AT THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATER POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. HAVE USED A MODEL BLENDED SOLUTION WITH EXCEPTION OF THE
NAM FOR THIS FORECAST. LIKE THE LAST BIG PRECIP EVENT...THE NAM
LOOKS TO BE TO FAR NORTH WITH ITS PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP.
PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION.

TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY. WIDESPREAD PRECIP...CLOUDY SKIES
AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
IN THE 70S. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP DEVELOPS...SOME
LOCATIONS COULD BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...ANOTHER COOL WEEK IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM BACK
INTO THE 80S AND CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  90  69  75 /   0  10  30  80
FSM   65  89  69  77 /   0   0  10  70
MLC   65  90  69  78 /   0  10  30  80
BVO   60  89  67  74 /   0  10  40  60
FYV   57  83  63  74 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   58  82  62  75 /   0   0  10  50
MKO   63  89  68  75 /   0   0  20  80
MIO   60  85  65  76 /   0  10  20  40
F10   65  89  69  75 /   0  10  30  80
HHW   67  90  69  83 /   0  10  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....20






000
FXUS64 KOUN 282028
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
328 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SPREADING EAST
WITH TIME.

A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING VERY
HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN. THIS RAIN MAY BE HEAVY...AND FLOODING MAY
BECOME A PROBLEM.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT. ONLY SPORADIC
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...IF ANYTHING...THIS WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK...PARTLY DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND PARTLY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  87  67  76 /  10  40  60  80
HOBART OK         68  84  66  82 /  20  50  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  89  70  93 /  20  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  80  64  75 /  30  60  80  70
PONCA CITY OK     65  85  66  77 /   0  30  60  80
DURANT OK         69  92  70  81 /  20  20  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 282028
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
328 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SPREADING EAST
WITH TIME.

A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING VERY
HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN. THIS RAIN MAY BE HEAVY...AND FLOODING MAY
BECOME A PROBLEM.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT. ONLY SPORADIC
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...IF ANYTHING...THIS WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK...PARTLY DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND PARTLY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  87  67  76 /  10  40  60  80
HOBART OK         68  84  66  82 /  20  50  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  89  70  93 /  20  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  80  64  75 /  30  60  80  70
PONCA CITY OK     65  85  66  77 /   0  30  60  80
DURANT OK         69  92  70  81 /  20  20  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 282028
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
328 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SPREADING EAST
WITH TIME.

A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING VERY
HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN. THIS RAIN MAY BE HEAVY...AND FLOODING MAY
BECOME A PROBLEM.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT. ONLY SPORADIC
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...IF ANYTHING...THIS WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK...PARTLY DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND PARTLY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  87  67  76 /  10  40  60  80
HOBART OK         68  84  66  82 /  20  50  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  89  70  93 /  20  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  80  64  75 /  30  60  80  70
PONCA CITY OK     65  85  66  77 /   0  30  60  80
DURANT OK         69  92  70  81 /  20  20  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 282028
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
328 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SPREADING EAST
WITH TIME.

A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING VERY
HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN. THIS RAIN MAY BE HEAVY...AND FLOODING MAY
BECOME A PROBLEM.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT. ONLY SPORADIC
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...IF ANYTHING...THIS WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK...PARTLY DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND PARTLY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  87  67  76 /  10  40  60  80
HOBART OK         68  84  66  82 /  20  50  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  89  70  93 /  20  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  80  64  75 /  30  60  80  70
PONCA CITY OK     65  85  66  77 /   0  30  60  80
DURANT OK         69  92  70  81 /  20  20  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 281819
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
119 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN
MINOR HOURLY GRID TWEAKS TO KEEP CURRENT.  GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH THE DRIEST AIR IS LAGGING THE WIND
SHIFT SOME WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS REMAINING IN FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
THE PAST HOUR OR TWO VERY NEAR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT
NEAR THE PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTY LINE. THESE COULD PERSIST
PAST SUNRISE...BUT PROBABLY NOT LONG AFTER...AS DRIER AIR FINALLY
MOVES THROUGH. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THROUGH MID MORNING
ACROSS PRIMARILY CHOCTAW COUNTY...WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING
THEREAFTER UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TODAY
BEGINS YET ANOTHER STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT
SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS TUESDAY
NIGHT TO THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN TO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE 28/00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
IN PLACING AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN RIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AS OPPOSED TO OUTSIDE OF IT...LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING
THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND HAVE ALSO INCREASED QPF VALUES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE SECOND ROUND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...AND SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 412...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURE
WISE...RAIN AND CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S IN MOST SPOTS...AND DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS ON THURSDAY...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY NOT
MAKE IT TO 70 AT ALL. WILL NOT GO THAT DRASTIC IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST QUITE YET THOUGH.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB DURING
THE WEEKEND...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  65  87  67 /   0   0  10  30
FSM   89  65  88  67 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   89  65  89  67 /   0   0  10  30
BVO   87  60  86  64 /   0   0  10  40
FYV   84  56  83  60 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   82  58  82  61 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   86  63  87  66 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   85  60  85  64 /   0   0  10  20
F10   89  65  85  67 /   0   0  10  30
HHW   92  67  89  68 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 281819
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
119 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN
MINOR HOURLY GRID TWEAKS TO KEEP CURRENT.  GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH THE DRIEST AIR IS LAGGING THE WIND
SHIFT SOME WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS REMAINING IN FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
THE PAST HOUR OR TWO VERY NEAR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT
NEAR THE PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTY LINE. THESE COULD PERSIST
PAST SUNRISE...BUT PROBABLY NOT LONG AFTER...AS DRIER AIR FINALLY
MOVES THROUGH. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THROUGH MID MORNING
ACROSS PRIMARILY CHOCTAW COUNTY...WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING
THEREAFTER UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TODAY
BEGINS YET ANOTHER STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT
SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS TUESDAY
NIGHT TO THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN TO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE 28/00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
IN PLACING AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN RIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AS OPPOSED TO OUTSIDE OF IT...LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING
THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND HAVE ALSO INCREASED QPF VALUES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE SECOND ROUND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...AND SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 412...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURE
WISE...RAIN AND CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S IN MOST SPOTS...AND DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS ON THURSDAY...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY NOT
MAKE IT TO 70 AT ALL. WILL NOT GO THAT DRASTIC IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST QUITE YET THOUGH.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB DURING
THE WEEKEND...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  65  87  67 /   0   0  10  30
FSM   89  65  88  67 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   89  65  89  67 /   0   0  10  30
BVO   87  60  86  64 /   0   0  10  40
FYV   84  56  83  60 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   82  58  82  61 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   86  63  87  66 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   85  60  85  64 /   0   0  10  20
F10   89  65  85  67 /   0   0  10  30
HHW   92  67  89  68 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 281819
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
119 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN
MINOR HOURLY GRID TWEAKS TO KEEP CURRENT.  GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH THE DRIEST AIR IS LAGGING THE WIND
SHIFT SOME WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS REMAINING IN FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
THE PAST HOUR OR TWO VERY NEAR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT
NEAR THE PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTY LINE. THESE COULD PERSIST
PAST SUNRISE...BUT PROBABLY NOT LONG AFTER...AS DRIER AIR FINALLY
MOVES THROUGH. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THROUGH MID MORNING
ACROSS PRIMARILY CHOCTAW COUNTY...WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING
THEREAFTER UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TODAY
BEGINS YET ANOTHER STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT
SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS TUESDAY
NIGHT TO THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN TO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE 28/00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
IN PLACING AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN RIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AS OPPOSED TO OUTSIDE OF IT...LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING
THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND HAVE ALSO INCREASED QPF VALUES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE SECOND ROUND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...AND SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 412...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURE
WISE...RAIN AND CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S IN MOST SPOTS...AND DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS ON THURSDAY...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY NOT
MAKE IT TO 70 AT ALL. WILL NOT GO THAT DRASTIC IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST QUITE YET THOUGH.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB DURING
THE WEEKEND...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  65  87  67 /   0   0  10  30
FSM   89  65  88  67 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   89  65  89  67 /   0   0  10  30
BVO   87  60  86  64 /   0   0  10  40
FYV   84  56  83  60 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   82  58  82  61 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   86  63  87  66 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   85  60  85  64 /   0   0  10  20
F10   89  65  85  67 /   0   0  10  30
HHW   92  67  89  68 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 281819
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
119 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN
MINOR HOURLY GRID TWEAKS TO KEEP CURRENT.  GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH THE DRIEST AIR IS LAGGING THE WIND
SHIFT SOME WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS REMAINING IN FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
THE PAST HOUR OR TWO VERY NEAR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT
NEAR THE PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTY LINE. THESE COULD PERSIST
PAST SUNRISE...BUT PROBABLY NOT LONG AFTER...AS DRIER AIR FINALLY
MOVES THROUGH. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THROUGH MID MORNING
ACROSS PRIMARILY CHOCTAW COUNTY...WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING
THEREAFTER UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TODAY
BEGINS YET ANOTHER STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT
SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS TUESDAY
NIGHT TO THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN TO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE 28/00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
IN PLACING AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN RIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AS OPPOSED TO OUTSIDE OF IT...LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING
THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND HAVE ALSO INCREASED QPF VALUES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE SECOND ROUND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...AND SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 412...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURE
WISE...RAIN AND CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S IN MOST SPOTS...AND DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS ON THURSDAY...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY NOT
MAKE IT TO 70 AT ALL. WILL NOT GO THAT DRASTIC IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST QUITE YET THOUGH.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB DURING
THE WEEKEND...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  65  87  67 /   0   0  10  30
FSM   89  65  88  67 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   89  65  89  67 /   0   0  10  30
BVO   87  60  86  64 /   0   0  10  40
FYV   84  56  83  60 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   82  58  82  61 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   86  63  87  66 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   85  60  85  64 /   0   0  10  20
F10   89  65  85  67 /   0   0  10  30
HHW   92  67  89  68 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KOUN 281709
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWESTERN
TAF SITES. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND FROM THE NORTH
TO THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
28/12Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE FROM WEST CENTRAL OK INTO
N TX. WILL KEEP TEMPO TSRA GROUPS AT SW OK SITES AND KSPS FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS. EXPECT STORMS TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE. MORE TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PD
AFFECTING NW OK SITES.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FA THIS MORNING WITH COOLER AIRMASS
FILTERING IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED
AROUND MIDNIGHT CONTINUE FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO SE OK EARLY THIS
MORNING AND APPEAR TO BE ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO SRN OK. EXPECT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
PRONOUNCED S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
INCREASING WAA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND
AND SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL OK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MAIN AREA OF RAIN/TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SEWD LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY AS THE S/W
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PREVAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  87  67  76 /  10  40  60  80
HOBART OK         68  84  66  82 /  30  50  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  89  70  93 /  30  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  80  64  75 /  30  60  80  70
PONCA CITY OK     65  85  66  77 /   0  30  60  80
DURANT OK         69  92  70  81 /  10  20  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 281709
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWESTERN
TAF SITES. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND FROM THE NORTH
TO THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
28/12Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE FROM WEST CENTRAL OK INTO
N TX. WILL KEEP TEMPO TSRA GROUPS AT SW OK SITES AND KSPS FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS. EXPECT STORMS TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE. MORE TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PD
AFFECTING NW OK SITES.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FA THIS MORNING WITH COOLER AIRMASS
FILTERING IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED
AROUND MIDNIGHT CONTINUE FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO SE OK EARLY THIS
MORNING AND APPEAR TO BE ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO SRN OK. EXPECT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
PRONOUNCED S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
INCREASING WAA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND
AND SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL OK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MAIN AREA OF RAIN/TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SEWD LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY AS THE S/W
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PREVAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  87  67  76 /  10  40  60  80
HOBART OK         68  84  66  82 /  30  50  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  89  70  93 /  30  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  80  64  75 /  30  60  80  70
PONCA CITY OK     65  85  66  77 /   0  30  60  80
DURANT OK         69  92  70  81 /  10  20  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/14



000
FXUS64 KTSA 281542
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1042 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN
MINOR HOURLY GRID TWEAKS TO KEEP CURRENT.  GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH THE DRIEST AIR IS LAGGING THE WIND
SHIFT SOME WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS REMAINING IN FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
THE PAST HOUR OR TWO VERY NEAR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT
NEAR THE PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTY LINE. THESE COULD PERSIST
PAST SUNRISE...BUT PROBABLY NOT LONG AFTER...AS DRIER AIR FINALLY
MOVES THROUGH. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THROUGH MID MORNING
ACROSS PRIMARILY CHOCTAW COUNTY...WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING
THEREAFTER UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TODAY
BEGINS YET ANOTHER STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT
SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS TUESDAY
NIGHT TO THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN TO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE 28/00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
IN PLACING AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN RIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AS OPPOSED TO OUTSIDE OF IT...LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING
THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND HAVE ALSO INCREASED QPF VALUES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE SECOND ROUND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...AND SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 412...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURE
WISE...RAIN AND CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S IN MOST SPOTS...AND DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS ON THURSDAY...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY NOT
MAKE IT TO 70 AT ALL. WILL NOT GO THAT DRASTIC IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST QUITE YET THOUGH.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB DURING
THE WEEKEND...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  65  87  67 /   0   0  10  40
FSM   89  65  88  67 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   89  65  89  67 /  10   0  10  30
BVO   87  60  86  64 /   0   0  10  40
FYV   84  56  83  60 /   0   0   0  20
BYV   82  58  82  61 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   86  63  87  66 /   0   0   0  30
MIO   85  60  85  64 /   0   0   0  20
F10   89  65  85  67 /   0   0  10  30
HHW   92  67  89  68 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 281542
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1042 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN
MINOR HOURLY GRID TWEAKS TO KEEP CURRENT.  GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH THE DRIEST AIR IS LAGGING THE WIND
SHIFT SOME WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS REMAINING IN FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
THE PAST HOUR OR TWO VERY NEAR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT
NEAR THE PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTY LINE. THESE COULD PERSIST
PAST SUNRISE...BUT PROBABLY NOT LONG AFTER...AS DRIER AIR FINALLY
MOVES THROUGH. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THROUGH MID MORNING
ACROSS PRIMARILY CHOCTAW COUNTY...WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING
THEREAFTER UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TODAY
BEGINS YET ANOTHER STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT
SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS TUESDAY
NIGHT TO THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN TO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE 28/00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
IN PLACING AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN RIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AS OPPOSED TO OUTSIDE OF IT...LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING
THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND HAVE ALSO INCREASED QPF VALUES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE SECOND ROUND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...AND SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 412...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURE
WISE...RAIN AND CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S IN MOST SPOTS...AND DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS ON THURSDAY...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY NOT
MAKE IT TO 70 AT ALL. WILL NOT GO THAT DRASTIC IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST QUITE YET THOUGH.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB DURING
THE WEEKEND...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  65  87  67 /   0   0  10  40
FSM   89  65  88  67 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   89  65  89  67 /  10   0  10  30
BVO   87  60  86  64 /   0   0  10  40
FYV   84  56  83  60 /   0   0   0  20
BYV   82  58  82  61 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   86  63  87  66 /   0   0   0  30
MIO   85  60  85  64 /   0   0   0  20
F10   89  65  85  67 /   0   0  10  30
HHW   92  67  89  68 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 281542
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1042 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN
MINOR HOURLY GRID TWEAKS TO KEEP CURRENT.  GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH THE DRIEST AIR IS LAGGING THE WIND
SHIFT SOME WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS REMAINING IN FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
THE PAST HOUR OR TWO VERY NEAR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT
NEAR THE PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTY LINE. THESE COULD PERSIST
PAST SUNRISE...BUT PROBABLY NOT LONG AFTER...AS DRIER AIR FINALLY
MOVES THROUGH. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THROUGH MID MORNING
ACROSS PRIMARILY CHOCTAW COUNTY...WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING
THEREAFTER UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TODAY
BEGINS YET ANOTHER STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT
SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS TUESDAY
NIGHT TO THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN TO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE 28/00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
IN PLACING AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN RIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AS OPPOSED TO OUTSIDE OF IT...LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING
THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND HAVE ALSO INCREASED QPF VALUES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE SECOND ROUND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...AND SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 412...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURE
WISE...RAIN AND CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S IN MOST SPOTS...AND DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS ON THURSDAY...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY NOT
MAKE IT TO 70 AT ALL. WILL NOT GO THAT DRASTIC IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST QUITE YET THOUGH.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB DURING
THE WEEKEND...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  65  87  67 /   0   0  10  40
FSM   89  65  88  67 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   89  65  89  67 /  10   0  10  30
BVO   87  60  86  64 /   0   0  10  40
FYV   84  56  83  60 /   0   0   0  20
BYV   82  58  82  61 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   86  63  87  66 /   0   0   0  30
MIO   85  60  85  64 /   0   0   0  20
F10   89  65  85  67 /   0   0  10  30
HHW   92  67  89  68 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 281542
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1042 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN
MINOR HOURLY GRID TWEAKS TO KEEP CURRENT.  GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH THE DRIEST AIR IS LAGGING THE WIND
SHIFT SOME WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS REMAINING IN FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
THE PAST HOUR OR TWO VERY NEAR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT
NEAR THE PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTY LINE. THESE COULD PERSIST
PAST SUNRISE...BUT PROBABLY NOT LONG AFTER...AS DRIER AIR FINALLY
MOVES THROUGH. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THROUGH MID MORNING
ACROSS PRIMARILY CHOCTAW COUNTY...WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING
THEREAFTER UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TODAY
BEGINS YET ANOTHER STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT
SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS TUESDAY
NIGHT TO THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN TO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE 28/00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
IN PLACING AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN RIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AS OPPOSED TO OUTSIDE OF IT...LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING
THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND HAVE ALSO INCREASED QPF VALUES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE SECOND ROUND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...AND SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 412...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURE
WISE...RAIN AND CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S IN MOST SPOTS...AND DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS ON THURSDAY...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY NOT
MAKE IT TO 70 AT ALL. WILL NOT GO THAT DRASTIC IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST QUITE YET THOUGH.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB DURING
THE WEEKEND...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  65  87  67 /   0   0  10  40
FSM   89  65  88  67 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   89  65  89  67 /  10   0  10  30
BVO   87  60  86  64 /   0   0  10  40
FYV   84  56  83  60 /   0   0   0  20
BYV   82  58  82  61 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   86  63  87  66 /   0   0   0  30
MIO   85  60  85  64 /   0   0   0  20
F10   89  65  85  67 /   0   0  10  30
HHW   92  67  89  68 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....20





000
FXUS64 KOUN 281122
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
28/12Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE FROM WEST CENTRAL OK INTO
N TX. WILL KEEP TEMPO TSRA GROUPS AT SW OK SITES AND KSPS FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS. EXPECT STORMS TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE. MORE TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PD
AFFECTING NW OK SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FA THIS MORNING WITH COOLER AIRMASS
FILTERING IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED
AROUND MIDNIGHT CONTINUE FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO SE OK EARLY THIS
MORNING AND APPEAR TO BE ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO SRN OK. EXPECT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
PRONOUNCED S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
INCREASING WAA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND
AND SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL OK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MAIN AREA OF RAIN/TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SEWD LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY AS THE S/W
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PREVAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  87  67 /  20  10  40  60
HOBART OK         90  68  84  66 /  60  30  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  90  70  89  70 /  50  30  40  40
GAGE OK           87  67  80  64 /  40  30  60  80
PONCA CITY OK     87  65  85  66 /   0   0  30  60
DURANT OK         93  69  92  70 /  50  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/02




000
FXUS64 KTSA 281024
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
524 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE FOREAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH THE DRIEST AIR IS LAGGING THE WIND
SHIFT SOME WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS REMAINING IN FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
THE PAST HOUR OR TWO VERY NEAR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT
NEAR THE PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTY LINE. THESE COULD PERSIST
PAST SUNRISE...BUT PROBABLY NOT LONG AFTER...AS DRIER AIR FINALLY
MOVES THROUGH. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THROUGH MID MORNING
ACROSS PRIMARILY CHOCTAW COUNTY...WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING
THEREAFTER UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TODAY
BEGINS YET ANOTHER STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT
SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS TUESDAY
NIGHT TO THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN TO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE 28/00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
IN PLACING AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN RIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AS OPPOSED TO OUTSIDE OF IT...LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING
THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND HAVE ALSO INCREASED QPF VALUES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE SECOND ROUND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...AND SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 412...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURE
WISE...RAIN AND CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S IN MOST SPOTS...AND DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS ON THURSDAY...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY NOT
MAKE IT TO 70 AT ALL. WILL NOT GO THAT DRASTIC IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST QUITE YET THOUGH.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB DURING
THE WEEKEND...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  65  87  67 /   0   0  10  40
FSM   89  65  88  67 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   89  65  89  67 /  10   0  10  30
BVO   87  60  86  64 /   0   0  10  40
FYV   84  56  83  60 /   0   0   0  20
BYV   82  58  82  61 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   85  63  87  66 /   0   0   0  30
MIO   85  60  85  64 /   0   0   0  20
F10   88  65  85  67 /   0   0  10  30
HHW   91  67  89  68 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 281024
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
524 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE FOREAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH THE DRIEST AIR IS LAGGING THE WIND
SHIFT SOME WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS REMAINING IN FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
THE PAST HOUR OR TWO VERY NEAR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT
NEAR THE PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTY LINE. THESE COULD PERSIST
PAST SUNRISE...BUT PROBABLY NOT LONG AFTER...AS DRIER AIR FINALLY
MOVES THROUGH. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THROUGH MID MORNING
ACROSS PRIMARILY CHOCTAW COUNTY...WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING
THEREAFTER UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TODAY
BEGINS YET ANOTHER STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT
SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS TUESDAY
NIGHT TO THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN TO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE 28/00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
IN PLACING AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN RIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AS OPPOSED TO OUTSIDE OF IT...LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING
THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND HAVE ALSO INCREASED QPF VALUES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE SECOND ROUND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...AND SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 412...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURE
WISE...RAIN AND CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S IN MOST SPOTS...AND DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS ON THURSDAY...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY NOT
MAKE IT TO 70 AT ALL. WILL NOT GO THAT DRASTIC IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST QUITE YET THOUGH.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB DURING
THE WEEKEND...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  65  87  67 /   0   0  10  40
FSM   89  65  88  67 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   89  65  89  67 /  10   0  10  30
BVO   87  60  86  64 /   0   0  10  40
FYV   84  56  83  60 /   0   0   0  20
BYV   82  58  82  61 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   85  63  87  66 /   0   0   0  30
MIO   85  60  85  64 /   0   0   0  20
F10   88  65  85  67 /   0   0  10  30
HHW   91  67  89  68 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KOUN 280857
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
357 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FA THIS MORNING WITH COOLER AIRMASS
FILTERING IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED
AROUND MIDNIGHT CONTINUE FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO SE OK EARLY THIS
MORNING AND APPEAR TO BE ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO SRN OK. EXPECT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
PRONOUNCED S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
INCREASING WAA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND
AND SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL OK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MAIN AREA OF RAIN/TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SEWD LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY AS THE S/W
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PREVAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  87  67 /  20  10  40  60
HOBART OK         90  68  84  66 /  60  30  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  90  70  89  70 /  50  30  40  40
GAGE OK           87  67  80  64 /  40  30  60  80
PONCA CITY OK     87  65  85  66 /   0   0  30  60
DURANT OK         93  69  92  70 /  50  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/02




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280857
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
357 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FA THIS MORNING WITH COOLER AIRMASS
FILTERING IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED
AROUND MIDNIGHT CONTINUE FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO SE OK EARLY THIS
MORNING AND APPEAR TO BE ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO SRN OK. EXPECT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
PRONOUNCED S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
INCREASING WAA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND
AND SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL OK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MAIN AREA OF RAIN/TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SEWD LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY AS THE S/W
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PREVAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  87  67 /  20  10  40  60
HOBART OK         90  68  84  66 /  60  30  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  90  70  89  70 /  50  30  40  40
GAGE OK           87  67  80  64 /  40  30  60  80
PONCA CITY OK     87  65  85  66 /   0   0  30  60
DURANT OK         93  69  92  70 /  50  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/02



000
FXUS64 KTSA 280755
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
255 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH THE DRIEST AIR IS LAGGING THE WIND
SHIFT SOME WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS REMAINING IN FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
THE PAST HOUR OR TWO VERY NEAR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT
NEAR THE PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTY LINE. THESE COULD PERSIST
PAST SUNRISE...BUT PROBABLY NOT LONG AFTER...AS DRIER AIR FINALLY
MOVES THROUGH. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THROUGH MID MORNING
ACROSS PRIMARILY CHOCTAW COUNTY...WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING
THEREAFTER UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TODAY
BEGINS YET ANOTHER STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT
SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS TUESDAY
NIGHT TO THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN TO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE 28/00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
IN PLACING AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN RIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AS OPPOSED TO OUTSIDE OF IT...LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING
THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND HAVE ALSO INCREASED QPF VALUES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE SECOND ROUND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...AND SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 412...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURE
WISE...RAIN AND CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S IN MOST SPOTS...AND DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS ON THURSDAY...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY NOT
MAKE IT TO 70 AT ALL. WILL NOT GO THAT DRASTIC IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST QUITE YET THOUGH.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB DURING
THE WEEKEND...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  65  87  67 /   0   0  10  40
FSM   89  65  88  67 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   89  65  89  67 /  10   0  10  30
BVO   87  60  86  64 /   0   0  10  30
FYV   84  56  83  60 /   0   0   0  20
BYV   82  58  82  61 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   85  63  87  66 /   0   0   0  30
MIO   85  60  85  64 /   0   0   0  20
F10   88  65  85  67 /   0   0  10  30
HHW   91  67  89  68 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 280755
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
255 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH THE DRIEST AIR IS LAGGING THE WIND
SHIFT SOME WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS REMAINING IN FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
THE PAST HOUR OR TWO VERY NEAR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT
NEAR THE PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTY LINE. THESE COULD PERSIST
PAST SUNRISE...BUT PROBABLY NOT LONG AFTER...AS DRIER AIR FINALLY
MOVES THROUGH. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THROUGH MID MORNING
ACROSS PRIMARILY CHOCTAW COUNTY...WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING
THEREAFTER UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TODAY
BEGINS YET ANOTHER STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT
SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS TUESDAY
NIGHT TO THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN TO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE 28/00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
IN PLACING AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN RIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AS OPPOSED TO OUTSIDE OF IT...LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING
THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND HAVE ALSO INCREASED QPF VALUES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE SECOND ROUND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...AND SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 412...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURE
WISE...RAIN AND CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S IN MOST SPOTS...AND DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS ON THURSDAY...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY NOT
MAKE IT TO 70 AT ALL. WILL NOT GO THAT DRASTIC IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST QUITE YET THOUGH.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB DURING
THE WEEKEND...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  65  87  67 /   0   0  10  40
FSM   89  65  88  67 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   89  65  89  67 /  10   0  10  30
BVO   87  60  86  64 /   0   0  10  30
FYV   84  56  83  60 /   0   0   0  20
BYV   82  58  82  61 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   85  63  87  66 /   0   0   0  30
MIO   85  60  85  64 /   0   0   0  20
F10   88  65  85  67 /   0   0  10  30
HHW   91  67  89  68 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 280438
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1138 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK...BUT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE KMLC TAF SITE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
FOR ALL SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW STRONG STORMS DEVELOPED S OF I-40 IN HOT AND VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AS DEW POINTS ACTUALLY REACHED 80 DEGREES FOR A TIME
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OK. THESE STORMS HAS SINCE DISSIPATED AND
MOVED SOUTHEAST. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER
AND A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
NEAR THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP THE GOING CHANCE OF
STORMS ACROSS SE OKLAHOMA. COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT AS DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME IN
PARTS OF NE OKLAHOMA. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

.UPDATE...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF KFSM AND
SOUTHEAST OF KMLC EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THESE TAF
SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER HAS
MAINTAINED ITSELF THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS IT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST.
MAY YET SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THUS WILL CARRY LOW
POPS EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH 20 PERCENT IS LIKELY
OVERKILL GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE. A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL INVADE THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ROTATE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROF TO
OUR EAST. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR ONE OR BOTH OF THOSE DAYS
TO BE EVEN COOLER THAN FORECAST IN SOME PLACES IF WIDESPREAD RAIN
DOES INDEED OCCUR.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LESSEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S...WHICH IS STILL 5-10
DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMALS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  89  64  88 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   71  89  65  88 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   71  89  65  88 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   63  88  61  87 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   63  84  58  84 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   63  83  59  84 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   66  88  63  87 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   63  86  60  86 /  10   0   0   0
F10   67  88  65  88 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   72  90  67  88 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 280438
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1138 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK...BUT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE KMLC TAF SITE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
FOR ALL SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW STRONG STORMS DEVELOPED S OF I-40 IN HOT AND VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AS DEW POINTS ACTUALLY REACHED 80 DEGREES FOR A TIME
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OK. THESE STORMS HAS SINCE DISSIPATED AND
MOVED SOUTHEAST. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER
AND A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
NEAR THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP THE GOING CHANCE OF
STORMS ACROSS SE OKLAHOMA. COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT AS DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME IN
PARTS OF NE OKLAHOMA. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

.UPDATE...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF KFSM AND
SOUTHEAST OF KMLC EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THESE TAF
SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER HAS
MAINTAINED ITSELF THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS IT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST.
MAY YET SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THUS WILL CARRY LOW
POPS EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH 20 PERCENT IS LIKELY
OVERKILL GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE. A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL INVADE THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ROTATE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROF TO
OUR EAST. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR ONE OR BOTH OF THOSE DAYS
TO BE EVEN COOLER THAN FORECAST IN SOME PLACES IF WIDESPREAD RAIN
DOES INDEED OCCUR.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LESSEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S...WHICH IS STILL 5-10
DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMALS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  89  64  88 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   71  89  65  88 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   71  89  65  88 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   63  88  61  87 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   63  84  58  84 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   63  83  59  84 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   66  88  63  87 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   63  86  60  86 /  10   0   0   0
F10   67  88  65  88 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   72  90  67  88 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KOUN 280420
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1120 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
28/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SHORT TERM
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA NEAR KLAW/KSPS
FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF FORECAST. WILL WAIT UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME TO
MAKE CALL WHETHER TO INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP. NORTHEAST WINDS FIRST
HALF OF FORECAST PERIOD WILL SLOWLY VEER TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST
SECOND HALF OF FORECAST. STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  87  68  87 /  20  30  10  20
HOBART OK         70  87  68  86 /  40  40  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  89  70  89 /  30  40  30  30
GAGE OK           66  83  64  82 /  20  30  20  60
PONCA CITY OK     68  87  65  87 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         76  91  69  90 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/11/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 280420
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1120 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
28/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SHORT TERM
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA NEAR KLAW/KSPS
FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF FORECAST. WILL WAIT UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME TO
MAKE CALL WHETHER TO INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP. NORTHEAST WINDS FIRST
HALF OF FORECAST PERIOD WILL SLOWLY VEER TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST
SECOND HALF OF FORECAST. STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  87  68  87 /  20  30  10  20
HOBART OK         70  87  68  86 /  40  40  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  89  70  89 /  30  40  30  30
GAGE OK           66  83  64  82 /  20  30  20  60
PONCA CITY OK     68  87  65  87 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         76  91  69  90 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/11/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 280245
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW STRONG STORMS DEVELOPED S OF I-40 IN HOT AND VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AS DEW POINTS ACTUALLY REACHED 80 DEGREES FOR A TIME
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OK. THESE STORMS HAS SINCE DISSIPATED AND
MOVED SOUTHEAST. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER
AND A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
NEAR THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP THE GOING CHANCE OF
STORMS ACROSS SE OKLAHOMA. COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT AS DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME IN
PARTS OF NE OKLAHOMA. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

..UPDATE...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF KFSM AND
SOUTHEAST OF KMLC EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THESE TAF
SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER HAS
MAINTAINED ITSELF THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS IT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST.
MAY YET SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THUS WILL CARRY LOW
POPS EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH 20 PERCENT IS LIKELY
OVERKILL GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE. A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL INVADE THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ROTATE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROF TO
OUR EAST. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR ONE OR BOTH OF THOSE DAYS
TO BE EVEN COOLER THAN FORECAST IN SOME PLACES IF WIDESPREAD RAIN
DOES INDEED OCCUR.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LESSEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S...WHICH IS STILL 5-10
DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMALS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  89  64  88 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   71  89  65  88 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   71  89  65  88 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   63  88  61  87 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   63  84  58  84 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   63  83  59  84 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   66  88  63  87 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   63  86  60  86 /  10   0   0   0
F10   67  88  65  88 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   72  90  67  88 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99







000
FXUS64 KTSA 280245
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW STRONG STORMS DEVELOPED S OF I-40 IN HOT AND VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AS DEW POINTS ACTUALLY REACHED 80 DEGREES FOR A TIME
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OK. THESE STORMS HAS SINCE DISSIPATED AND
MOVED SOUTHEAST. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER
AND A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
NEAR THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP THE GOING CHANCE OF
STORMS ACROSS SE OKLAHOMA. COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT AS DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME IN
PARTS OF NE OKLAHOMA. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

..UPDATE...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF KFSM AND
SOUTHEAST OF KMLC EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THESE TAF
SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER HAS
MAINTAINED ITSELF THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS IT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST.
MAY YET SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THUS WILL CARRY LOW
POPS EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH 20 PERCENT IS LIKELY
OVERKILL GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE. A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL INVADE THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ROTATE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROF TO
OUR EAST. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR ONE OR BOTH OF THOSE DAYS
TO BE EVEN COOLER THAN FORECAST IN SOME PLACES IF WIDESPREAD RAIN
DOES INDEED OCCUR.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LESSEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S...WHICH IS STILL 5-10
DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMALS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  89  64  88 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   71  89  65  88 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   71  89  65  88 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   63  88  61  87 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   63  84  58  84 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   63  83  59  84 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   66  88  63  87 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   63  86  60  86 /  10   0   0   0
F10   67  88  65  88 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   72  90  67  88 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99







000
FXUS64 KTSA 280245
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW STRONG STORMS DEVELOPED S OF I-40 IN HOT AND VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AS DEW POINTS ACTUALLY REACHED 80 DEGREES FOR A TIME
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OK. THESE STORMS HAS SINCE DISSIPATED AND
MOVED SOUTHEAST. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER
AND A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
NEAR THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP THE GOING CHANCE OF
STORMS ACROSS SE OKLAHOMA. COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT AS DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME IN
PARTS OF NE OKLAHOMA. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

..UPDATE...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF KFSM AND
SOUTHEAST OF KMLC EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THESE TAF
SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER HAS
MAINTAINED ITSELF THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS IT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST.
MAY YET SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THUS WILL CARRY LOW
POPS EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH 20 PERCENT IS LIKELY
OVERKILL GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE. A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL INVADE THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ROTATE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROF TO
OUR EAST. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR ONE OR BOTH OF THOSE DAYS
TO BE EVEN COOLER THAN FORECAST IN SOME PLACES IF WIDESPREAD RAIN
DOES INDEED OCCUR.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LESSEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S...WHICH IS STILL 5-10
DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMALS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  89  64  88 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   71  89  65  88 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   71  89  65  88 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   63  88  61  87 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   63  84  58  84 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   63  83  59  84 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   66  88  63  87 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   63  86  60  86 /  10   0   0   0
F10   67  88  65  88 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   72  90  67  88 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99







000
FXUS64 KTSA 280245
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW STRONG STORMS DEVELOPED S OF I-40 IN HOT AND VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AS DEW POINTS ACTUALLY REACHED 80 DEGREES FOR A TIME
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OK. THESE STORMS HAS SINCE DISSIPATED AND
MOVED SOUTHEAST. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER
AND A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
NEAR THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP THE GOING CHANCE OF
STORMS ACROSS SE OKLAHOMA. COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT AS DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME IN
PARTS OF NE OKLAHOMA. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

..UPDATE...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF KFSM AND
SOUTHEAST OF KMLC EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THESE TAF
SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER HAS
MAINTAINED ITSELF THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS IT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST.
MAY YET SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THUS WILL CARRY LOW
POPS EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH 20 PERCENT IS LIKELY
OVERKILL GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE. A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL INVADE THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ROTATE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROF TO
OUR EAST. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR ONE OR BOTH OF THOSE DAYS
TO BE EVEN COOLER THAN FORECAST IN SOME PLACES IF WIDESPREAD RAIN
DOES INDEED OCCUR.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LESSEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S...WHICH IS STILL 5-10
DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMALS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  89  64  88 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   71  89  65  88 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   71  89  65  88 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   63  88  61  87 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   63  84  58  84 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   63  83  59  84 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   66  88  63  87 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   63  86  60  86 /  10   0   0   0
F10   67  88  65  88 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   72  90  67  88 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99







000
FXUS64 KOUN 280125
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
825 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE PACKAGE THIS EVENING TO REMOVE THE HEAT HEADLINES
AND TO MODIFY PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. IN THE SHORT TERM... ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT WILL LOWER POPS AND CONFINE TO THE SOUTH CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER
MIDNIGHT... BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MOST LIKELY FOR
CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE SOUTH... AND HAVE REDUCED OR ELIMINATED
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
28/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ISOLATED
TSRA DEVELOPING BETWEEN KSPS AND KLAW ALONG INITIAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF KLAW AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR TEMPO/PREVAILING TSRA AT KSPS. THUS TSRA WILL BE LEFT
OUT OF INITIAL FORECAST AND AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF IT
BECOMES MORE APPARENT OF KSPS IMPACT THIS EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR AND SOUTH OF KCSM/KOUN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AND ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE MAINLY LIGHT ELY WIND
TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THERE WILL BE GOOD OPPORTUNITIES THE NEXT FOUR MORNINGS FOR RAIN
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT
LATER TODAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER EARLY MONDAY. THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN THE UPSLOPE
REGION NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN/SHOWERS TO
PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
A LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE FRONT AND PRODUCE SOME RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS. WEDNESDAY MORNING A WEAK
UPPER WAVE MAY BE COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY. SINCE A
THUNDERSTORM/RAIN COMPLEX IS EXPECTED FROM THIS, MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PART OF OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY HAVE RAIN
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE COMPLEX MOVES SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY ANOTHER FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH
WILL LIKELY BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL BRING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 80 WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WITH PART OF THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS STILL IN OKLAHOMA,
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN JUST VERY WARM INSTEAD OF VERY HOT
AS HAS RECENTLY BEEN THE CASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  87  68  87 /  20  30  10  20
HOBART OK         70  87  68  86 /  40  40  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  89  70  89 /  30  40  30  30
GAGE OK           66  83  64  82 /  20  30  20  60
PONCA CITY OK     68  87  65  87 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         76  91  69  90 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 280125
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
825 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE PACKAGE THIS EVENING TO REMOVE THE HEAT HEADLINES
AND TO MODIFY PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. IN THE SHORT TERM... ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT WILL LOWER POPS AND CONFINE TO THE SOUTH CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER
MIDNIGHT... BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MOST LIKELY FOR
CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE SOUTH... AND HAVE REDUCED OR ELIMINATED
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
28/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ISOLATED
TSRA DEVELOPING BETWEEN KSPS AND KLAW ALONG INITIAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF KLAW AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR TEMPO/PREVAILING TSRA AT KSPS. THUS TSRA WILL BE LEFT
OUT OF INITIAL FORECAST AND AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF IT
BECOMES MORE APPARENT OF KSPS IMPACT THIS EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR AND SOUTH OF KCSM/KOUN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AND ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE MAINLY LIGHT ELY WIND
TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THERE WILL BE GOOD OPPORTUNITIES THE NEXT FOUR MORNINGS FOR RAIN
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT
LATER TODAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER EARLY MONDAY. THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN THE UPSLOPE
REGION NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN/SHOWERS TO
PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
A LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE FRONT AND PRODUCE SOME RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS. WEDNESDAY MORNING A WEAK
UPPER WAVE MAY BE COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY. SINCE A
THUNDERSTORM/RAIN COMPLEX IS EXPECTED FROM THIS, MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PART OF OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY HAVE RAIN
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE COMPLEX MOVES SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY ANOTHER FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH
WILL LIKELY BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL BRING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 80 WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WITH PART OF THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS STILL IN OKLAHOMA,
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN JUST VERY WARM INSTEAD OF VERY HOT
AS HAS RECENTLY BEEN THE CASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  87  68  87 /  20  30  10  20
HOBART OK         70  87  68  86 /  40  40  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  89  70  89 /  30  40  30  30
GAGE OK           66  83  64  82 /  20  30  20  60
PONCA CITY OK     68  87  65  87 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         76  91  69  90 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 280125
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
825 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE PACKAGE THIS EVENING TO REMOVE THE HEAT HEADLINES
AND TO MODIFY PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. IN THE SHORT TERM... ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT WILL LOWER POPS AND CONFINE TO THE SOUTH CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER
MIDNIGHT... BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MOST LIKELY FOR
CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE SOUTH... AND HAVE REDUCED OR ELIMINATED
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
28/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ISOLATED
TSRA DEVELOPING BETWEEN KSPS AND KLAW ALONG INITIAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF KLAW AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR TEMPO/PREVAILING TSRA AT KSPS. THUS TSRA WILL BE LEFT
OUT OF INITIAL FORECAST AND AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF IT
BECOMES MORE APPARENT OF KSPS IMPACT THIS EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR AND SOUTH OF KCSM/KOUN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AND ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE MAINLY LIGHT ELY WIND
TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THERE WILL BE GOOD OPPORTUNITIES THE NEXT FOUR MORNINGS FOR RAIN
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT
LATER TODAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER EARLY MONDAY. THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN THE UPSLOPE
REGION NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN/SHOWERS TO
PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
A LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE FRONT AND PRODUCE SOME RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS. WEDNESDAY MORNING A WEAK
UPPER WAVE MAY BE COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY. SINCE A
THUNDERSTORM/RAIN COMPLEX IS EXPECTED FROM THIS, MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PART OF OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY HAVE RAIN
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE COMPLEX MOVES SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY ANOTHER FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH
WILL LIKELY BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL BRING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 80 WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WITH PART OF THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS STILL IN OKLAHOMA,
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN JUST VERY WARM INSTEAD OF VERY HOT
AS HAS RECENTLY BEEN THE CASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  87  68  87 /  20  30  10  20
HOBART OK         70  87  68  86 /  40  40  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  89  70  89 /  30  40  30  30
GAGE OK           66  83  64  82 /  20  30  20  60
PONCA CITY OK     68  87  65  87 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         76  91  69  90 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 280125
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
825 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE PACKAGE THIS EVENING TO REMOVE THE HEAT HEADLINES
AND TO MODIFY PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. IN THE SHORT TERM... ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT WILL LOWER POPS AND CONFINE TO THE SOUTH CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER
MIDNIGHT... BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MOST LIKELY FOR
CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE SOUTH... AND HAVE REDUCED OR ELIMINATED
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
28/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ISOLATED
TSRA DEVELOPING BETWEEN KSPS AND KLAW ALONG INITIAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF KLAW AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR TEMPO/PREVAILING TSRA AT KSPS. THUS TSRA WILL BE LEFT
OUT OF INITIAL FORECAST AND AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF IT
BECOMES MORE APPARENT OF KSPS IMPACT THIS EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR AND SOUTH OF KCSM/KOUN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AND ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE MAINLY LIGHT ELY WIND
TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THERE WILL BE GOOD OPPORTUNITIES THE NEXT FOUR MORNINGS FOR RAIN
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT
LATER TODAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER EARLY MONDAY. THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN THE UPSLOPE
REGION NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN/SHOWERS TO
PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
A LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE FRONT AND PRODUCE SOME RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS. WEDNESDAY MORNING A WEAK
UPPER WAVE MAY BE COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY. SINCE A
THUNDERSTORM/RAIN COMPLEX IS EXPECTED FROM THIS, MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PART OF OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY HAVE RAIN
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE COMPLEX MOVES SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY ANOTHER FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH
WILL LIKELY BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL BRING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 80 WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WITH PART OF THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS STILL IN OKLAHOMA,
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN JUST VERY WARM INSTEAD OF VERY HOT
AS HAS RECENTLY BEEN THE CASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  87  68  87 /  20  30  10  20
HOBART OK         70  87  68  86 /  40  40  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  89  70  89 /  30  40  30  30
GAGE OK           66  83  64  82 /  20  30  20  60
PONCA CITY OK     68  87  65  87 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         76  91  69  90 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 272341
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
28/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ISOLATED
TSRA DEVELOPING BETWEEN KSPS AND KLAW ALONG INITIAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF KLAW AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR TEMPO/PREVAILING TSRA AT KSPS. THUS TSRA WILL BE LEFT
OUT OF INITIAL FORECAST AND AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF IT
BECOMES MORE APPARENT OF KSPS IMPACT THIS EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR AND SOUTH OF KCSM/KOUN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AND ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE MAINLY LIGHT ELY WIND
TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THERE WILL BE GOOD OPPORTUNITIES THE NEXT FOUR MORNINGS FOR RAIN
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT
LATER TODAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER EARLY MONDAY. THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN THE UPSLOPE
REGION NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN/SHOWERS TO
PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
A LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE FRONT AND PRODUCE SOME RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS. WEDNESDAY MORNING A WEAK
UPPER WAVE MAY BE COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY. SINCE A
THUNDERSTORM/RAIN COMPLEX IS EXPECTED FROM THIS, MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PART OF OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY HAVE RAIN
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE COMPLEX MOVES SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY ANOTHER FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH
WILL LIKELY BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL BRING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 80 WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WITH PART OF THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS STILL IN OKLAHOMA,
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN JUST VERY WARM INSTEAD OF VERY HOT
AS HAS RECENTLY BEEN THE CASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  87  68  87 /  40  30  10  20
HOBART OK         70  87  68  86 /  40  40  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  89  70  89 /  30  40  30  30
GAGE OK           66  83  64  82 /  40  30  20  60
PONCA CITY OK     68  87  65  87 /  20   0   0  10
DURANT OK         76  91  69  90 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ032-037>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

$$

26/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 272341
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
28/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ISOLATED
TSRA DEVELOPING BETWEEN KSPS AND KLAW ALONG INITIAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF KLAW AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR TEMPO/PREVAILING TSRA AT KSPS. THUS TSRA WILL BE LEFT
OUT OF INITIAL FORECAST AND AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF IT
BECOMES MORE APPARENT OF KSPS IMPACT THIS EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR AND SOUTH OF KCSM/KOUN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AND ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE MAINLY LIGHT ELY WIND
TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THERE WILL BE GOOD OPPORTUNITIES THE NEXT FOUR MORNINGS FOR RAIN
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT
LATER TODAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER EARLY MONDAY. THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN THE UPSLOPE
REGION NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN/SHOWERS TO
PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
A LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE FRONT AND PRODUCE SOME RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS. WEDNESDAY MORNING A WEAK
UPPER WAVE MAY BE COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY. SINCE A
THUNDERSTORM/RAIN COMPLEX IS EXPECTED FROM THIS, MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PART OF OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY HAVE RAIN
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE COMPLEX MOVES SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY ANOTHER FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH
WILL LIKELY BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL BRING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 80 WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WITH PART OF THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS STILL IN OKLAHOMA,
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN JUST VERY WARM INSTEAD OF VERY HOT
AS HAS RECENTLY BEEN THE CASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  87  68  87 /  40  30  10  20
HOBART OK         70  87  68  86 /  40  40  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  89  70  89 /  30  40  30  30
GAGE OK           66  83  64  82 /  40  30  20  60
PONCA CITY OK     68  87  65  87 /  20   0   0  10
DURANT OK         76  91  69  90 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ032-037>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

$$

26/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 272318
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
618 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF KFSM AND
SOUTHEAST OF KMLC EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THESE TAF
SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER HAS
MAINTAINED ITSELF THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS IT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST.
MAY YET SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THUS WILL CARRY LOW
POPS EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH 20 PERCENT IS LIKELY
OVERKILL GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE. A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL INVADE THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ROTATE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROF TO
OUR EAST. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR ONE OR BOTH OF THOSE DAYS
TO BE EVEN COOLER THAN FORECAST IN SOME PLACES IF WIDESPREAD RAIN
DOES INDEED OCCUR.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LESSEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S...WHICH IS STILL 5-10
DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMALS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  89  64  88 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   71  89  65  88 /  20   0   0   0
MLC   71  89  65  88 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   63  88  61  87 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   63  84  58  84 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   63  83  59  84 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   68  88  63  87 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   63  86  60  86 /  20   0   0   0
F10   69  88  65  88 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   72  90  67  88 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ065-OKZ066-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 272318
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
618 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF KFSM AND
SOUTHEAST OF KMLC EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THESE TAF
SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER HAS
MAINTAINED ITSELF THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS IT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST.
MAY YET SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THUS WILL CARRY LOW
POPS EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH 20 PERCENT IS LIKELY
OVERKILL GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE. A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL INVADE THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ROTATE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROF TO
OUR EAST. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR ONE OR BOTH OF THOSE DAYS
TO BE EVEN COOLER THAN FORECAST IN SOME PLACES IF WIDESPREAD RAIN
DOES INDEED OCCUR.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LESSEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S...WHICH IS STILL 5-10
DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMALS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  89  64  88 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   71  89  65  88 /  20   0   0   0
MLC   71  89  65  88 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   63  88  61  87 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   63  84  58  84 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   63  83  59  84 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   68  88  63  87 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   63  86  60  86 /  20   0   0   0
F10   69  88  65  88 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   72  90  67  88 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ065-OKZ066-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 272318
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
618 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF KFSM AND
SOUTHEAST OF KMLC EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THESE TAF
SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER HAS
MAINTAINED ITSELF THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS IT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST.
MAY YET SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THUS WILL CARRY LOW
POPS EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH 20 PERCENT IS LIKELY
OVERKILL GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE. A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL INVADE THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ROTATE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROF TO
OUR EAST. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR ONE OR BOTH OF THOSE DAYS
TO BE EVEN COOLER THAN FORECAST IN SOME PLACES IF WIDESPREAD RAIN
DOES INDEED OCCUR.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LESSEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S...WHICH IS STILL 5-10
DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMALS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  89  64  88 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   71  89  65  88 /  20   0   0   0
MLC   71  89  65  88 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   63  88  61  87 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   63  84  58  84 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   63  83  59  84 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   68  88  63  87 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   63  86  60  86 /  20   0   0   0
F10   69  88  65  88 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   72  90  67  88 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ065-OKZ066-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 272318
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
618 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF KFSM AND
SOUTHEAST OF KMLC EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THESE TAF
SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER HAS
MAINTAINED ITSELF THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS IT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST.
MAY YET SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THUS WILL CARRY LOW
POPS EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH 20 PERCENT IS LIKELY
OVERKILL GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE. A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL INVADE THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ROTATE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROF TO
OUR EAST. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR ONE OR BOTH OF THOSE DAYS
TO BE EVEN COOLER THAN FORECAST IN SOME PLACES IF WIDESPREAD RAIN
DOES INDEED OCCUR.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LESSEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S...WHICH IS STILL 5-10
DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMALS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  89  64  88 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   71  89  65  88 /  20   0   0   0
MLC   71  89  65  88 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   63  88  61  87 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   63  84  58  84 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   63  83  59  84 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   68  88  63  87 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   63  86  60  86 /  20   0   0   0
F10   69  88  65  88 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   72  90  67  88 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ065-OKZ066-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...18






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