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000
FXUS64 KTSA 010246
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
846 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE SNOW IS CONFINED TO EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THIS HOUR. FREEZING RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
OF AN ISSUE WITH AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF
AROUND 60 MPH CONTINUES TO CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING PRODUCING THE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A GOOD DEAL OF THE NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED ICE
AMOUNTS SOME ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. STILL
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THE HRRR SHOWS THE PRECIP TAPERING OFF AROUND 3 AM.
WILL SEE MAINLY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THE TEMPERATURE HAS RISEN TO FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 010246
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
846 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE SNOW IS CONFINED TO EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THIS HOUR. FREEZING RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
OF AN ISSUE WITH AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF
AROUND 60 MPH CONTINUES TO CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING PRODUCING THE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A GOOD DEAL OF THE NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED ICE
AMOUNTS SOME ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. STILL
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THE HRRR SHOWS THE PRECIP TAPERING OFF AROUND 3 AM.
WILL SEE MAINLY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THE TEMPERATURE HAS RISEN TO FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 010246
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
846 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE SNOW IS CONFINED TO EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THIS HOUR. FREEZING RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
OF AN ISSUE WITH AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF
AROUND 60 MPH CONTINUES TO CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING PRODUCING THE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A GOOD DEAL OF THE NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED ICE
AMOUNTS SOME ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. STILL
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THE HRRR SHOWS THE PRECIP TAPERING OFF AROUND 3 AM.
WILL SEE MAINLY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THE TEMPERATURE HAS RISEN TO FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 010246
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
846 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE SNOW IS CONFINED TO EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THIS HOUR. FREEZING RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
OF AN ISSUE WITH AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF
AROUND 60 MPH CONTINUES TO CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING PRODUCING THE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A GOOD DEAL OF THE NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED ICE
AMOUNTS SOME ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. STILL
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THE HRRR SHOWS THE PRECIP TAPERING OFF AROUND 3 AM.
WILL SEE MAINLY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THE TEMPERATURE HAS RISEN TO FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10






  [top]

000
FXUS64 KOUN 010226
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
826 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL MAKE SOME LIGHT SLEET
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
OVERALL...THINK IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH AIRPORT MINIMUMS 06-18Z...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
06Z...AND AFTER 17Z.

PATCHES OF -FZDZ CAN BE EXPECTED...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF KCSM-KPNC
BEFORE 17Z. FZFG MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FOG AND SCATTERED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES MAY COOL A FEW DEGREES EARLY THIS EVENING
AND THEN LEVEL OFF OR RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY WEAK BUT
STEADY WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP POPS GOING TOMORROW INTO MONDAY
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA. SLOW BUT STEADY TRANSITION TO
RAIN FORECAST AS WE GET INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT UNTIL THEN...
AS FEW AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR TAKES US BACK TO FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HINTS AT ANOTHER PERIOD OF ARCTIC AIR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  25  36  27  39 /  50  30  10  30
HOBART OK         22  35  26  39 /  30  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  26  39  31  41 /  50  30  30  40
GAGE OK           21  31  22  39 /  40  30  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     23  33  21  38 /  40  20  10  20
DURANT OK         29  40  33  43 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

99/99




000
FXUS64 KTSA 282329
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
529 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE FREEZING DRIZLLE MAY CHANGE
TO DRIZZLE AT SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES
SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING. SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TAF SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW STARTING TO LIFT OUT OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. WILL GO
AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THIS AREA AND
REPLACE WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT. ADVISORY HAS
ALSO BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

WARM NOSE ALOFT HAS SURGED THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING
RAIN PER OBSERVATIONS/DUAL POL RADAR TRENDS. AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WITH SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ARE A LITTLE TRICKY AS SOME AREAS MAY RISE JUST
ABOVE FREEZING LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...BUT FOR NOW
WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE AFOREMENTIONED AREA IN THE ADVISORY.
ANY AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES THAT REMAIN SUNDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO ALL LIQUID FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. RAIN LIKELY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BEHIND FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL HINT AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE. DRY
FORECAST EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TREND
DEVELOPING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05





000
FXUS64 KTSA 282329
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
529 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE FREEZING DRIZLLE MAY CHANGE
TO DRIZZLE AT SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES
SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING. SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TAF SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW STARTING TO LIFT OUT OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. WILL GO
AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THIS AREA AND
REPLACE WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT. ADVISORY HAS
ALSO BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

WARM NOSE ALOFT HAS SURGED THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING
RAIN PER OBSERVATIONS/DUAL POL RADAR TRENDS. AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WITH SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ARE A LITTLE TRICKY AS SOME AREAS MAY RISE JUST
ABOVE FREEZING LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...BUT FOR NOW
WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE AFOREMENTIONED AREA IN THE ADVISORY.
ANY AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES THAT REMAIN SUNDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO ALL LIQUID FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. RAIN LIKELY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BEHIND FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL HINT AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE. DRY
FORECAST EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TREND
DEVELOPING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 282329
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
529 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE FREEZING DRIZLLE MAY CHANGE
TO DRIZZLE AT SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES
SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING. SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TAF SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW STARTING TO LIFT OUT OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. WILL GO
AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THIS AREA AND
REPLACE WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT. ADVISORY HAS
ALSO BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

WARM NOSE ALOFT HAS SURGED THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING
RAIN PER OBSERVATIONS/DUAL POL RADAR TRENDS. AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WITH SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ARE A LITTLE TRICKY AS SOME AREAS MAY RISE JUST
ABOVE FREEZING LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...BUT FOR NOW
WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE AFOREMENTIONED AREA IN THE ADVISORY.
ANY AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES THAT REMAIN SUNDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO ALL LIQUID FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. RAIN LIKELY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BEHIND FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL HINT AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE. DRY
FORECAST EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TREND
DEVELOPING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 282329
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
529 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE FREEZING DRIZLLE MAY CHANGE
TO DRIZZLE AT SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES
SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING. SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TAF SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW STARTING TO LIFT OUT OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. WILL GO
AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THIS AREA AND
REPLACE WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT. ADVISORY HAS
ALSO BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

WARM NOSE ALOFT HAS SURGED THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING
RAIN PER OBSERVATIONS/DUAL POL RADAR TRENDS. AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WITH SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ARE A LITTLE TRICKY AS SOME AREAS MAY RISE JUST
ABOVE FREEZING LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...BUT FOR NOW
WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE AFOREMENTIONED AREA IN THE ADVISORY.
ANY AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES THAT REMAIN SUNDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO ALL LIQUID FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. RAIN LIKELY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BEHIND FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL HINT AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE. DRY
FORECAST EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TREND
DEVELOPING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05





000
FXUS64 KOUN 282324
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
524 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...THINK IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH AIRPORT MINIMUMS 06-18Z...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
06Z...AND AFTER 17Z.

PATCHES OF -FZDZ CAN BE EXPECTED...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF KCSM-KPNC
BEFORE 17Z. FZFG MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FOG AND SCATTERED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES MAY COOL A FEW DEGREES EARLY THIS EVENING
AND THEN LEVEL OFF OR RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY WEAK BUT
STEADY WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP POPS GOING TOMORROW INTO MONDAY
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA. SLOW BUT STEADY TRANSITION TO
RAIN FORECAST AS WE GET INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT UNTIL THEN...
AS FEW AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR TAKES US BACK TO FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HINTS AT ANOTHER PERIOD OF ARCTIC AIR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  24  36  27  39 /  40  30  10  30
HOBART OK         24  35  26  39 /  30  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  27  39  31  41 /  40  30  30  40
GAGE OK           22  31  22  39 /  20  20  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     23  33  21  38 /  40  20  10  20
DURANT OK         30  40  33  43 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

04/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 282324
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
524 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...THINK IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH AIRPORT MINIMUMS 06-18Z...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
06Z...AND AFTER 17Z.

PATCHES OF -FZDZ CAN BE EXPECTED...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF KCSM-KPNC
BEFORE 17Z. FZFG MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FOG AND SCATTERED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES MAY COOL A FEW DEGREES EARLY THIS EVENING
AND THEN LEVEL OFF OR RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY WEAK BUT
STEADY WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP POPS GOING TOMORROW INTO MONDAY
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA. SLOW BUT STEADY TRANSITION TO
RAIN FORECAST AS WE GET INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT UNTIL THEN...
AS FEW AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR TAKES US BACK TO FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HINTS AT ANOTHER PERIOD OF ARCTIC AIR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  24  36  27  39 /  40  30  10  30
HOBART OK         24  35  26  39 /  30  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  27  39  31  41 /  40  30  30  40
GAGE OK           22  31  22  39 /  20  20  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     23  33  21  38 /  40  20  10  20
DURANT OK         30  40  33  43 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

04/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 282324
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
524 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...THINK IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH AIRPORT MINIMUMS 06-18Z...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
06Z...AND AFTER 17Z.

PATCHES OF -FZDZ CAN BE EXPECTED...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF KCSM-KPNC
BEFORE 17Z. FZFG MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FOG AND SCATTERED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES MAY COOL A FEW DEGREES EARLY THIS EVENING
AND THEN LEVEL OFF OR RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY WEAK BUT
STEADY WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP POPS GOING TOMORROW INTO MONDAY
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA. SLOW BUT STEADY TRANSITION TO
RAIN FORECAST AS WE GET INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT UNTIL THEN...
AS FEW AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR TAKES US BACK TO FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HINTS AT ANOTHER PERIOD OF ARCTIC AIR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  24  36  27  39 /  40  30  10  30
HOBART OK         24  35  26  39 /  30  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  27  39  31  41 /  40  30  30  40
GAGE OK           22  31  22  39 /  20  20  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     23  33  21  38 /  40  20  10  20
DURANT OK         30  40  33  43 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

04/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 282324
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
524 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...THINK IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH AIRPORT MINIMUMS 06-18Z...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
06Z...AND AFTER 17Z.

PATCHES OF -FZDZ CAN BE EXPECTED...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF KCSM-KPNC
BEFORE 17Z. FZFG MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FOG AND SCATTERED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES MAY COOL A FEW DEGREES EARLY THIS EVENING
AND THEN LEVEL OFF OR RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY WEAK BUT
STEADY WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP POPS GOING TOMORROW INTO MONDAY
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA. SLOW BUT STEADY TRANSITION TO
RAIN FORECAST AS WE GET INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT UNTIL THEN...
AS FEW AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR TAKES US BACK TO FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HINTS AT ANOTHER PERIOD OF ARCTIC AIR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  24  36  27  39 /  40  30  10  30
HOBART OK         24  35  26  39 /  30  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  27  39  31  41 /  40  30  30  40
GAGE OK           22  31  22  39 /  20  20  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     23  33  21  38 /  40  20  10  20
DURANT OK         30  40  33  43 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

04/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 282124
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
324 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FOG AND SCATTERED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES MAY COOL A FEW DEGREES EARLY THIS EVENING
AND THEN LEVEL OFF OR RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY WEAK BUT
STEADY WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP POPS GOING TOMORROW INTO MONDAY
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA. SLOW BUT STEADY TRANSITION TO
RAIN FORECAST AS WE GET INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT UNTIL THEN...
AS FEW AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR TAKES US BACK TO FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HINTS AT ANOTHER PERIOD OF ARCTIC AIR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  24  36  27  39 /  40  30  10  30
HOBART OK         24  35  26  39 /  30  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  27  39  31  41 /  40  30  30  40
GAGE OK           22  31  22  39 /  20  20  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     23  33  21  38 /  40  20  10  20
DURANT OK         30  40  33  43 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 282124
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
324 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FOG AND SCATTERED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES MAY COOL A FEW DEGREES EARLY THIS EVENING
AND THEN LEVEL OFF OR RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY WEAK BUT
STEADY WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP POPS GOING TOMORROW INTO MONDAY
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA. SLOW BUT STEADY TRANSITION TO
RAIN FORECAST AS WE GET INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT UNTIL THEN...
AS FEW AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR TAKES US BACK TO FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HINTS AT ANOTHER PERIOD OF ARCTIC AIR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  24  36  27  39 /  40  30  10  30
HOBART OK         24  35  26  39 /  30  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  27  39  31  41 /  40  30  30  40
GAGE OK           22  31  22  39 /  20  20  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     23  33  21  38 /  40  20  10  20
DURANT OK         30  40  33  43 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 282048
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
248 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW STARTING TO LIFT OUT OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. WILL GO
AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THIS AREA AND
REPLACE WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT. ADVISORY HAS
ALSO BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

WARM NOSE ALOFT HAS SURGED THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING
RAIN PER OBSERVATIONS/DUAL POL RADAR TRENDS. AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WITH SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ARE A LITTLE TRICKY AS SOME AREAS MAY RISE JUST
ABOVE FREEZING LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...BUT FOR NOW
WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE AFOREMENTIONED AREA IN THE ADVISORY.
ANY AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES THAT REMAIN SUNDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO ALL LIQUID FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. RAIN LIKELY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BEHIND FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL HINT AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE. DRY
FORECAST EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TREND
DEVELOPING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   29  37  27  39 /  60  40  20  30
FSM   31  43  33  41 /  70  50  30  30
MLC   31  39  32  45 /  60  30  30  30
BVO   25  35  22  39 /  60  40  10  20
FYV   29  41  27  43 /  70  50  30  20
BYV   28  39  26  39 /  70  50  30  20
MKO   29  37  27  40 /  60  40  30  30
MIO   28  35  24  39 /  60  50  10  20
F10   30  36  28  40 /  60  30  20  30
HHW   32  44  38  44 /  60  30  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 282048
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
248 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW STARTING TO LIFT OUT OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. WILL GO
AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THIS AREA AND
REPLACE WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT. ADVISORY HAS
ALSO BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

WARM NOSE ALOFT HAS SURGED THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING
RAIN PER OBSERVATIONS/DUAL POL RADAR TRENDS. AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WITH SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ARE A LITTLE TRICKY AS SOME AREAS MAY RISE JUST
ABOVE FREEZING LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...BUT FOR NOW
WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE AFOREMENTIONED AREA IN THE ADVISORY.
ANY AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES THAT REMAIN SUNDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO ALL LIQUID FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. RAIN LIKELY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BEHIND FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL HINT AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE. DRY
FORECAST EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TREND
DEVELOPING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   29  37  27  39 /  60  40  20  30
FSM   31  43  33  41 /  70  50  30  30
MLC   31  39  32  45 /  60  30  30  30
BVO   25  35  22  39 /  60  40  10  20
FYV   29  41  27  43 /  70  50  30  20
BYV   28  39  26  39 /  70  50  30  20
MKO   29  37  27  40 /  60  40  30  30
MIO   28  35  24  39 /  60  50  10  20
F10   30  36  28  40 /  60  30  20  30
HHW   32  44  38  44 /  60  30  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 281748
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHILE SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. OVERNIGHT THE MIXED PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD WITH AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SUNDAY MORNING. VARYING VIS/CIGS FROM THE LIFR TO MVFR
SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST THIS MORNING WHILE A WAVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO DROP
SOUTHWARD. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO PUSH OVER THE REGION WITH LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THUS...IN RESPONSE...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING.

LATEST NAM SOLUTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENIC
BAND PUSHING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS..WHILE THE 12Z GFS RUN HAS BACKED OFF SOME ON THIS COMPARED
TO THE 06Z RUN. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE IF THIS BAND STAYS TOGETHER AND MOVES OVER FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES COULD BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING FOR FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA.

ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...THICKNESS
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL WARM NOSE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO BECOME
MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET MIX TO A POSSIBLE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX.
THIS MIXED PRECIP CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT SHOULD PUSH NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOCATIONS ALONG
THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER BEING THE LAST TO SWITCH OVER TO MIX
PRECIP.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO WARM LITTLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH WARMING CLOSER TO/JUST
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MORNING UPDATE
WILL BE TO ADJUST POP/WX GRIDS AND ALSO SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS BASED ON
THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   30  28  38  27 / 100  40  40  20
FSM   32  30  43  33 /  60  60  50  30
MLC   33  30  40  32 /  80  50  30  30
BVO   29  23  37  22 / 100  40  40  10
FYV   29  30  41  27 /  80  60  50  30
BYV   28  28  39  26 /  80  70  50  30
MKO   31  29  39  27 /  90  50  40  30
MIO   29  26  37  24 / 100  50  50  10
F10   32  30  38  28 /  90  40  30  20
HHW   34  31  44  38 /  50  70  30  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ060-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 281748
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHILE SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. OVERNIGHT THE MIXED PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD WITH AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SUNDAY MORNING. VARYING VIS/CIGS FROM THE LIFR TO MVFR
SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST THIS MORNING WHILE A WAVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO DROP
SOUTHWARD. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO PUSH OVER THE REGION WITH LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THUS...IN RESPONSE...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING.

LATEST NAM SOLUTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENIC
BAND PUSHING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS..WHILE THE 12Z GFS RUN HAS BACKED OFF SOME ON THIS COMPARED
TO THE 06Z RUN. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE IF THIS BAND STAYS TOGETHER AND MOVES OVER FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES COULD BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING FOR FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA.

ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...THICKNESS
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL WARM NOSE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO BECOME
MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET MIX TO A POSSIBLE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX.
THIS MIXED PRECIP CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT SHOULD PUSH NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOCATIONS ALONG
THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER BEING THE LAST TO SWITCH OVER TO MIX
PRECIP.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO WARM LITTLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH WARMING CLOSER TO/JUST
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MORNING UPDATE
WILL BE TO ADJUST POP/WX GRIDS AND ALSO SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS BASED ON
THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   30  28  38  27 / 100  40  40  20
FSM   32  30  43  33 /  60  60  50  30
MLC   33  30  40  32 /  80  50  30  30
BVO   29  23  37  22 / 100  40  40  10
FYV   29  30  41  27 /  80  60  50  30
BYV   28  28  39  26 /  80  70  50  30
MKO   31  29  39  27 /  90  50  40  30
MIO   29  26  37  24 / 100  50  50  10
F10   32  30  38  28 /  90  40  30  20
HHW   34  31  44  38 /  50  70  30  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ060-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 281748
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHILE SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. OVERNIGHT THE MIXED PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD WITH AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SUNDAY MORNING. VARYING VIS/CIGS FROM THE LIFR TO MVFR
SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST THIS MORNING WHILE A WAVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO DROP
SOUTHWARD. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO PUSH OVER THE REGION WITH LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THUS...IN RESPONSE...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING.

LATEST NAM SOLUTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENIC
BAND PUSHING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS..WHILE THE 12Z GFS RUN HAS BACKED OFF SOME ON THIS COMPARED
TO THE 06Z RUN. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE IF THIS BAND STAYS TOGETHER AND MOVES OVER FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES COULD BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING FOR FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA.

ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...THICKNESS
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL WARM NOSE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO BECOME
MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET MIX TO A POSSIBLE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX.
THIS MIXED PRECIP CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT SHOULD PUSH NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOCATIONS ALONG
THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER BEING THE LAST TO SWITCH OVER TO MIX
PRECIP.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO WARM LITTLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH WARMING CLOSER TO/JUST
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MORNING UPDATE
WILL BE TO ADJUST POP/WX GRIDS AND ALSO SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS BASED ON
THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   30  28  38  27 / 100  40  40  20
FSM   32  30  43  33 /  60  60  50  30
MLC   33  30  40  32 /  80  50  30  30
BVO   29  23  37  22 / 100  40  40  10
FYV   29  30  41  27 /  80  60  50  30
BYV   28  28  39  26 /  80  70  50  30
MKO   31  29  39  27 /  90  50  40  30
MIO   29  26  37  24 / 100  50  50  10
F10   32  30  38  28 /  90  40  30  20
HHW   34  31  44  38 /  50  70  30  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ060-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 281748
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHILE SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. OVERNIGHT THE MIXED PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD WITH AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SUNDAY MORNING. VARYING VIS/CIGS FROM THE LIFR TO MVFR
SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST THIS MORNING WHILE A WAVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO DROP
SOUTHWARD. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO PUSH OVER THE REGION WITH LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THUS...IN RESPONSE...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING.

LATEST NAM SOLUTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENIC
BAND PUSHING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS..WHILE THE 12Z GFS RUN HAS BACKED OFF SOME ON THIS COMPARED
TO THE 06Z RUN. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE IF THIS BAND STAYS TOGETHER AND MOVES OVER FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES COULD BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING FOR FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA.

ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...THICKNESS
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL WARM NOSE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO BECOME
MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET MIX TO A POSSIBLE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX.
THIS MIXED PRECIP CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT SHOULD PUSH NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOCATIONS ALONG
THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER BEING THE LAST TO SWITCH OVER TO MIX
PRECIP.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO WARM LITTLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH WARMING CLOSER TO/JUST
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MORNING UPDATE
WILL BE TO ADJUST POP/WX GRIDS AND ALSO SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS BASED ON
THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   30  28  38  27 / 100  40  40  20
FSM   32  30  43  33 /  60  60  50  30
MLC   33  30  40  32 /  80  50  30  30
BVO   29  23  37  22 / 100  40  40  10
FYV   29  30  41  27 /  80  60  50  30
BYV   28  28  39  26 /  80  70  50  30
MKO   31  29  39  27 /  90  50  40  30
MIO   29  26  37  24 / 100  50  50  10
F10   32  30  38  28 /  90  40  30  20
HHW   34  31  44  38 /  50  70  30  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ060-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...20





000
FXUS64 KOUN 281746 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1146 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
28/18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
28/18Z TAFS...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS ALONG WITH KSPS IN AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN WAKE OF SNOW. SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF FORECAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. IFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER ALL TERMINALS AFTER
02-04Z...IF NOT BEFORE...AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. WILL
MENTION MAINLY FZDZ AND FZFG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TEMPERATURES.

DISCUSSION...
LOWERED EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES...MOSTLY 20S INSTEAD
OF TEMPS AROUND AND ABOVE FREEZING. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TO WILL APPROACH OR PERHAPS EXCEED THE
FREEZING MARK BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
THEN REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE...WILL SPEED UP NORTHWARD PROGRESSION
OF TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AND MID LEVEL TEMPS
INCREASE AND DRY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE WITH LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN SNOW THIS
MORNING IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LIGHT SNOW WILL GIVE WAY
TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. FREEZING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING, LIKELY TO GIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES. LESSER SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH WHERE SNOW WILL MIX THROUGH THE
TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS STRONG WARMING OCCURS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WORKS IT WAY TOWARD THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE MAIN WAVE HELPING MORNING SNOW PRODUCTION
IN THE NORTH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, LESS SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL
EXIST IN SOUTHERN AREAS, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STILL CREATE
A GOOD CHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITION. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS EFFECTIVE THROUGH
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. CURRENTLY WE EXPECT A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
BECAUSE POPS ARE RELATIVELY LOW, THE ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE AT 6
PM TODAY.

A WEAK FRONT LATER SUNDAY WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT, BUT NOT MUCH
COLDER AIR. STRONG WARMING ALOFT AND MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING RAIN TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND A CHANCE ELSEWHERE BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATER IN THE DAY. AFTER A COLD DAY WEDNESDAY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE LINGERING UPPER LONG-WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  29  44  29 / 100  40  40  10
HOBART OK         28  28  45  30 /  80  40  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  29  47  35 /  60  40  40  30
GAGE OK           27  26  39  24 / 100  30  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     27  27  41  26 / 100  60  40  10
DURANT OK         32  32  45  36 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/99/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 281746 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1146 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
28/18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
28/18Z TAFS...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS ALONG WITH KSPS IN AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN WAKE OF SNOW. SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF FORECAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. IFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER ALL TERMINALS AFTER
02-04Z...IF NOT BEFORE...AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. WILL
MENTION MAINLY FZDZ AND FZFG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TEMPERATURES.

DISCUSSION...
LOWERED EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES...MOSTLY 20S INSTEAD
OF TEMPS AROUND AND ABOVE FREEZING. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TO WILL APPROACH OR PERHAPS EXCEED THE
FREEZING MARK BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
THEN REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE...WILL SPEED UP NORTHWARD PROGRESSION
OF TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AND MID LEVEL TEMPS
INCREASE AND DRY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE WITH LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN SNOW THIS
MORNING IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LIGHT SNOW WILL GIVE WAY
TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. FREEZING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING, LIKELY TO GIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES. LESSER SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH WHERE SNOW WILL MIX THROUGH THE
TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS STRONG WARMING OCCURS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WORKS IT WAY TOWARD THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE MAIN WAVE HELPING MORNING SNOW PRODUCTION
IN THE NORTH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, LESS SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL
EXIST IN SOUTHERN AREAS, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STILL CREATE
A GOOD CHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITION. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS EFFECTIVE THROUGH
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. CURRENTLY WE EXPECT A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
BECAUSE POPS ARE RELATIVELY LOW, THE ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE AT 6
PM TODAY.

A WEAK FRONT LATER SUNDAY WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT, BUT NOT MUCH
COLDER AIR. STRONG WARMING ALOFT AND MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING RAIN TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND A CHANCE ELSEWHERE BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATER IN THE DAY. AFTER A COLD DAY WEDNESDAY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE LINGERING UPPER LONG-WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  29  44  29 / 100  40  40  10
HOBART OK         28  28  45  30 /  80  40  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  29  47  35 /  60  40  40  30
GAGE OK           27  26  39  24 / 100  30  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     27  27  41  26 / 100  60  40  10
DURANT OK         32  32  45  36 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/99/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281746 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1146 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
28/18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
28/18Z TAFS...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS ALONG WITH KSPS IN AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN WAKE OF SNOW. SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF FORECAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. IFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER ALL TERMINALS AFTER
02-04Z...IF NOT BEFORE...AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. WILL
MENTION MAINLY FZDZ AND FZFG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TEMPERATURES.

DISCUSSION...
LOWERED EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES...MOSTLY 20S INSTEAD
OF TEMPS AROUND AND ABOVE FREEZING. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TO WILL APPROACH OR PERHAPS EXCEED THE
FREEZING MARK BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
THEN REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE...WILL SPEED UP NORTHWARD PROGRESSION
OF TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AND MID LEVEL TEMPS
INCREASE AND DRY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE WITH LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN SNOW THIS
MORNING IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LIGHT SNOW WILL GIVE WAY
TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. FREEZING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING, LIKELY TO GIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES. LESSER SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH WHERE SNOW WILL MIX THROUGH THE
TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS STRONG WARMING OCCURS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WORKS IT WAY TOWARD THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE MAIN WAVE HELPING MORNING SNOW PRODUCTION
IN THE NORTH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, LESS SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL
EXIST IN SOUTHERN AREAS, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STILL CREATE
A GOOD CHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITION. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS EFFECTIVE THROUGH
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. CURRENTLY WE EXPECT A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
BECAUSE POPS ARE RELATIVELY LOW, THE ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE AT 6
PM TODAY.

A WEAK FRONT LATER SUNDAY WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT, BUT NOT MUCH
COLDER AIR. STRONG WARMING ALOFT AND MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING RAIN TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND A CHANCE ELSEWHERE BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATER IN THE DAY. AFTER A COLD DAY WEDNESDAY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE LINGERING UPPER LONG-WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  29  44  29 / 100  40  40  10
HOBART OK         28  28  45  30 /  80  40  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  29  47  35 /  60  40  40  30
GAGE OK           27  26  39  24 / 100  30  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     27  27  41  26 / 100  60  40  10
DURANT OK         32  32  45  36 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/99/11



000
FXUS64 KTSA 281613
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1013 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST THIS MORNING WHILE A WAVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO DROP
SOUTHWARD. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO PUSH OVER THE REGION WITH LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THUS...IN RESPONSE...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING.

LATEST NAM SOLUTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENIC
BAND PUSHING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS..WHILE THE 12Z GFS RUN HAS BACKED OFF SOME ON THIS COMPARED
TO THE 06Z RUN. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE IF THIS BAND STAYS TOGETHER AND MOVES OVER FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES COULD BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING FOR FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA.

ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...THICKNESS
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL WARM NOSE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO BECOME
MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET MIX TO A POSSIBLE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX.
THIS MIXED PRECIP CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT SHOULD PUSH NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOCATIONS ALONG
THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER BEING THE LAST TO SWITCH OVER TO MIX
PRECIP.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO WARM LITTLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH WARMING CLOSER TO/JUST
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MORNING UPDATE
WILL BE TO ADJUST POP/WX GRIDS AND ALSO SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS BASED ON
THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND LATEST TRENDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   30  28  40  28 / 100  60  50  20
FSM   32  31  42  33 /  60  40  50  30
MLC   33  31  44  32 /  80  40  50  30
BVO   29  27  38  24 / 100  80  50  10
FYV   29  29  39  26 /  80  50  50  30
BYV   28  28  37  25 /  80  50  50  30
MKO   31  28  42  28 /  90  40  50  30
MIO   29  28  37  24 / 100  80  50  10
F10   32  29  43  29 /  90  40  50  20
HHW   34  33  46  37 /  50  40  50  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ060-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 281613
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1013 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST THIS MORNING WHILE A WAVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO DROP
SOUTHWARD. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO PUSH OVER THE REGION WITH LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THUS...IN RESPONSE...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING.

LATEST NAM SOLUTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENIC
BAND PUSHING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS..WHILE THE 12Z GFS RUN HAS BACKED OFF SOME ON THIS COMPARED
TO THE 06Z RUN. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE IF THIS BAND STAYS TOGETHER AND MOVES OVER FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES COULD BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING FOR FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA.

ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...THICKNESS
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL WARM NOSE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO BECOME
MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET MIX TO A POSSIBLE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX.
THIS MIXED PRECIP CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT SHOULD PUSH NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOCATIONS ALONG
THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER BEING THE LAST TO SWITCH OVER TO MIX
PRECIP.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO WARM LITTLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH WARMING CLOSER TO/JUST
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MORNING UPDATE
WILL BE TO ADJUST POP/WX GRIDS AND ALSO SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS BASED ON
THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND LATEST TRENDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   30  28  40  28 / 100  60  50  20
FSM   32  31  42  33 /  60  40  50  30
MLC   33  31  44  32 /  80  40  50  30
BVO   29  27  38  24 / 100  80  50  10
FYV   29  29  39  26 /  80  50  50  30
BYV   28  28  37  25 /  80  50  50  30
MKO   31  28  42  28 /  90  40  50  30
MIO   29  28  37  24 / 100  80  50  10
F10   32  29  43  29 /  90  40  50  20
HHW   34  33  46  37 /  50  40  50  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ060-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KOUN 281340 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
740 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOWERED EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES...MOSTLY 20S INSTEAD
OF TEMPS AROUND AND ABOVE FREEZING. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TO WILL APPROACH OR PERHAPS EXCEED THE
FREEZING MARK BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
THEN REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE...WILL SPEED UP NORTHWARD PROGRESSION
OF TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AND MID LEVEL TEMPS
INCREASE AND DRY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE WITH LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN SNOW THIS
MORNING IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LIGHT SNOW WILL GIVE WAY
TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. FREEZING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING, LIKELY TO GIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES. LESSER SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH WHERE SNOW WILL MIX THROUGH THE
TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS STRONG WARMING OCCURS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WORKS IT WAY TOWARD THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE MAIN WAVE HELPING MORNING SNOW PRODUCTION
IN THE NORTH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, LESS SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL
EXIST IN SOUTHERN AREAS, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STILL CREATE
A GOOD CHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITION. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS EFFECTIVE THROUGH
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. CURRENTLY WE EXPECT A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
BECAUSE POPS ARE RELATIVELY LOW, THE ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE AT 6
PM TODAY.

A WEAK FRONT LATER SUNDAY WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT, BUT NOT MUCH
COLDER AIR. STRONG WARMING ALOFT AND MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING RAIN TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND A CHANCE ELSEWHERE BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATER IN THE DAY. AFTER A COLD DAY WEDNESDAY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE LINGERING UPPER LONG-WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  29  44  29 / 100  40  40  10
HOBART OK         28  28  45  30 /  80  40  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  29  47  35 /  60  40  40  30
GAGE OK           27  26  39  24 / 100  30  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     27  27  41  26 / 100  60  40  10
DURANT OK         32  32  45  36 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>008-010>013-015>020-023>032-038>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ009-014-021-
     022-033>037.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-
     089-090.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ083>085-087-
     088.

&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 281340 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
740 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOWERED EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES...MOSTLY 20S INSTEAD
OF TEMPS AROUND AND ABOVE FREEZING. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TO WILL APPROACH OR PERHAPS EXCEED THE
FREEZING MARK BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
THEN REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE...WILL SPEED UP NORTHWARD PROGRESSION
OF TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AND MID LEVEL TEMPS
INCREASE AND DRY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE WITH LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN SNOW THIS
MORNING IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LIGHT SNOW WILL GIVE WAY
TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. FREEZING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING, LIKELY TO GIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES. LESSER SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH WHERE SNOW WILL MIX THROUGH THE
TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS STRONG WARMING OCCURS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WORKS IT WAY TOWARD THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE MAIN WAVE HELPING MORNING SNOW PRODUCTION
IN THE NORTH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, LESS SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL
EXIST IN SOUTHERN AREAS, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STILL CREATE
A GOOD CHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITION. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS EFFECTIVE THROUGH
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. CURRENTLY WE EXPECT A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
BECAUSE POPS ARE RELATIVELY LOW, THE ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE AT 6
PM TODAY.

A WEAK FRONT LATER SUNDAY WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT, BUT NOT MUCH
COLDER AIR. STRONG WARMING ALOFT AND MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING RAIN TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND A CHANCE ELSEWHERE BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATER IN THE DAY. AFTER A COLD DAY WEDNESDAY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE LINGERING UPPER LONG-WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  29  44  29 / 100  40  40  10
HOBART OK         28  28  45  30 /  80  40  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  29  47  35 /  60  40  40  30
GAGE OK           27  26  39  24 / 100  30  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     27  27  41  26 / 100  60  40  10
DURANT OK         32  32  45  36 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>008-010>013-015>020-023>032-038>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ009-014-021-
     022-033>037.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-
     089-090.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ083>085-087-
     088.

&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 281340 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
740 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOWERED EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES...MOSTLY 20S INSTEAD
OF TEMPS AROUND AND ABOVE FREEZING. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TO WILL APPROACH OR PERHAPS EXCEED THE
FREEZING MARK BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
THEN REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE...WILL SPEED UP NORTHWARD PROGRESSION
OF TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AND MID LEVEL TEMPS
INCREASE AND DRY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE WITH LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN SNOW THIS
MORNING IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LIGHT SNOW WILL GIVE WAY
TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. FREEZING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING, LIKELY TO GIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES. LESSER SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH WHERE SNOW WILL MIX THROUGH THE
TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS STRONG WARMING OCCURS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WORKS IT WAY TOWARD THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE MAIN WAVE HELPING MORNING SNOW PRODUCTION
IN THE NORTH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, LESS SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL
EXIST IN SOUTHERN AREAS, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STILL CREATE
A GOOD CHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITION. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS EFFECTIVE THROUGH
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. CURRENTLY WE EXPECT A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
BECAUSE POPS ARE RELATIVELY LOW, THE ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE AT 6
PM TODAY.

A WEAK FRONT LATER SUNDAY WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT, BUT NOT MUCH
COLDER AIR. STRONG WARMING ALOFT AND MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING RAIN TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND A CHANCE ELSEWHERE BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATER IN THE DAY. AFTER A COLD DAY WEDNESDAY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE LINGERING UPPER LONG-WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  29  44  29 / 100  40  40  10
HOBART OK         28  28  45  30 /  80  40  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  29  47  35 /  60  40  40  30
GAGE OK           27  26  39  24 / 100  30  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     27  27  41  26 / 100  60  40  10
DURANT OK         32  32  45  36 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>008-010>013-015>020-023>032-038>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ009-014-021-
     022-033>037.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-
     089-090.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ083>085-087-
     088.

&&

$$

25/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281201
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
601 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE WITH LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN SNOW THIS
MORNING IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LIGHT SNOW WILL GIVE WAY
TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. FREEZING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING, LIKELY TO GIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES. LESSER SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH WHERE SNOW WILL MIX THROUGH THE
TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS STRONG WARMING OCCURS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WORKS IT WAY TOWARD THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE MAIN WAVE HELPING MORNING SNOW PRODUCTION
IN THE NORTH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, LESS SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL
EXIST IN SOUTHERN AREAS, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STILL CREATE
A GOOD CHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITION. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS EFFECTIVE THROUGH
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. CURRENTLY WE EXPECT A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
BECAUSE POPS ARE RELATIVELY LOW, THE ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE AT 6
PM TODAY.

A WEAK FRONT LATER SUNDAY WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT, BUT NOT MUCH
COLDER AIR. STRONG WARMING ALOFT AND MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING RAIN TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND A CHANCE ELSEWHERE BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATER IN THE DAY. AFTER A COLD DAY WEDNESDAY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE LINGERING UPPER LONG-WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  32  30  44  29 /  80  40  40  10
HOBART OK         30  28  45  30 /  80  40  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  31  29  47  35 /  50  40  40  30
GAGE OK           30  26  39  24 /  80  30  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     30  28  41  26 /  90  60  40  10
DURANT OK         34  32  45  36 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>008-010>013-015>020-023>032-038>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ009-014-021-
     022-033>037.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-
     089-090.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ083>085-087-
     088.

&&

$$

26/09/09



000
FXUS64 KOUN 281201
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
601 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE WITH LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN SNOW THIS
MORNING IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LIGHT SNOW WILL GIVE WAY
TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. FREEZING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING, LIKELY TO GIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES. LESSER SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH WHERE SNOW WILL MIX THROUGH THE
TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS STRONG WARMING OCCURS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WORKS IT WAY TOWARD THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE MAIN WAVE HELPING MORNING SNOW PRODUCTION
IN THE NORTH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, LESS SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL
EXIST IN SOUTHERN AREAS, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STILL CREATE
A GOOD CHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITION. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS EFFECTIVE THROUGH
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. CURRENTLY WE EXPECT A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
BECAUSE POPS ARE RELATIVELY LOW, THE ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE AT 6
PM TODAY.

A WEAK FRONT LATER SUNDAY WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT, BUT NOT MUCH
COLDER AIR. STRONG WARMING ALOFT AND MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING RAIN TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND A CHANCE ELSEWHERE BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATER IN THE DAY. AFTER A COLD DAY WEDNESDAY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE LINGERING UPPER LONG-WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  32  30  44  29 /  80  40  40  10
HOBART OK         30  28  45  30 /  80  40  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  31  29  47  35 /  50  40  40  30
GAGE OK           30  26  39  24 /  80  30  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     30  28  41  26 /  90  60  40  10
DURANT OK         34  32  45  36 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>008-010>013-015>020-023>032-038>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ009-014-021-
     022-033>037.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-
     089-090.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ083>085-087-
     088.

&&

$$

26/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 281201
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
601 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE WITH LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN SNOW THIS
MORNING IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LIGHT SNOW WILL GIVE WAY
TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. FREEZING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING, LIKELY TO GIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES. LESSER SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH WHERE SNOW WILL MIX THROUGH THE
TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS STRONG WARMING OCCURS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WORKS IT WAY TOWARD THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE MAIN WAVE HELPING MORNING SNOW PRODUCTION
IN THE NORTH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, LESS SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL
EXIST IN SOUTHERN AREAS, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STILL CREATE
A GOOD CHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITION. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS EFFECTIVE THROUGH
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. CURRENTLY WE EXPECT A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
BECAUSE POPS ARE RELATIVELY LOW, THE ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE AT 6
PM TODAY.

A WEAK FRONT LATER SUNDAY WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT, BUT NOT MUCH
COLDER AIR. STRONG WARMING ALOFT AND MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING RAIN TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND A CHANCE ELSEWHERE BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATER IN THE DAY. AFTER A COLD DAY WEDNESDAY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE LINGERING UPPER LONG-WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  32  30  44  29 /  80  40  40  10
HOBART OK         30  28  45  30 /  80  40  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  31  29  47  35 /  50  40  40  30
GAGE OK           30  26  39  24 /  80  30  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     30  28  41  26 /  90  60  40  10
DURANT OK         34  32  45  36 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>008-010>013-015>020-023>032-038>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ009-014-021-
     022-033>037.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-
     089-090.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ083>085-087-
     088.

&&

$$

26/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 281201
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
601 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE WITH LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN SNOW THIS
MORNING IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LIGHT SNOW WILL GIVE WAY
TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. FREEZING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING, LIKELY TO GIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES. LESSER SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH WHERE SNOW WILL MIX THROUGH THE
TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS STRONG WARMING OCCURS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WORKS IT WAY TOWARD THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE MAIN WAVE HELPING MORNING SNOW PRODUCTION
IN THE NORTH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, LESS SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL
EXIST IN SOUTHERN AREAS, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STILL CREATE
A GOOD CHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITION. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS EFFECTIVE THROUGH
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. CURRENTLY WE EXPECT A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
BECAUSE POPS ARE RELATIVELY LOW, THE ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE AT 6
PM TODAY.

A WEAK FRONT LATER SUNDAY WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT, BUT NOT MUCH
COLDER AIR. STRONG WARMING ALOFT AND MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING RAIN TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND A CHANCE ELSEWHERE BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATER IN THE DAY. AFTER A COLD DAY WEDNESDAY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE LINGERING UPPER LONG-WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  32  30  44  29 /  80  40  40  10
HOBART OK         30  28  45  30 /  80  40  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  31  29  47  35 /  50  40  40  30
GAGE OK           30  26  39  24 /  80  30  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     30  28  41  26 /  90  60  40  10
DURANT OK         34  32  45  36 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>008-010>013-015>020-023>032-038>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ009-014-021-
     022-033>037.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-
     089-090.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ083>085-087-
     088.

&&

$$

26/09/09



000
FXUS64 KTSA 281132
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
532 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
AS LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA. WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH MVFR TO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SNOW TO CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH NE OK AND NW
TO SEE ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCH TOTALS. SE OK WILL BEGIN TO SEE GRADUAL
CHANGEOVER TO A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM ADVECTION
BEGINS. THIS TRANSITION WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPECTED FROM LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WARMER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO OVER
TAKE THE REGION. THE CURRENT ADVISORY RUNS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD IT WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND
06Z. WILL LET DAY SHIFT HANDLE THAT SINCE IT FALLS UNDER THE FIRST
PERIOD OF THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN
MAINLY LIQUID...BUT THE NEXT BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WARM
UP ENSUES MONDAY...WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. WILL KEEP MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE COLDER AIR EXPANDS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY... THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SEE A PERIOD
OF SETTLED...AND WARMER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   30  28  40  28 / 100  60  50  20
FSM   32  31  42  33 /  50  40  50  30
MLC   33  31  44  32 /  70  40  50  30
BVO   29  27  38  24 / 100  80  50  10
FYV   29  29  39  26 /  60  50  50  30
BYV   28  28  37  25 /  60  50  50  30
MKO   31  28  42  28 /  70  40  50  30
MIO   29  28  37  24 / 100  80  50  10
F10   32  29  43  29 /  70  40  50  20
HHW   34  33  46  37 /  50  40  50  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KOUN 281016
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
416 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING, LIKELY TO GIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES. LESSER SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH WHERE SNOW WILL MIX THROUGH THE
TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS STRONG WARMING OCCURS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WORKS IT WAY TOWARD THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE MAIN WAVE HELPING MORNING SNOW PRODUCTION
IN THE NORTH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, LESS SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL
EXIST IN SOUTHERN AREAS, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STILL CREATE
A GOOD CHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITION. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS EFFECTIVE THROUGH
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. CURRENTLY WE EXPECT A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
BECAUSE POPS ARE RELATIVELY LOW, THE ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE AT 6
PM TODAY.

A WEAK FRONT LATER SUNDAY WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT, BUT NOT MUCH
COLDER AIR. STRONG WARMING ALOFT AND MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING RAIN TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND A CHANCE ELSEWHERE BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATER IN THE DAY. AFTER A COLD DAY WEDNESDAY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE LINGERING UPPER LONG-WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  32  30  44  29 /  80  40  40  10
HOBART OK         30  28  45  30 /  80  40  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  31  29  47  35 /  50  40  40  30
GAGE OK           30  26  39  24 /  80  30  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     30  28  41  26 /  90  60  40  10
DURANT OK         34  32  45  36 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>008-010>013-015>020-023>032-038>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ009-014-021-
     022-033>037.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-
     089-090.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ083>085-087-
     088.

&&

$$

26/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 281016
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
416 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING, LIKELY TO GIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES. LESSER SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH WHERE SNOW WILL MIX THROUGH THE
TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS STRONG WARMING OCCURS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WORKS IT WAY TOWARD THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE MAIN WAVE HELPING MORNING SNOW PRODUCTION
IN THE NORTH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, LESS SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL
EXIST IN SOUTHERN AREAS, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STILL CREATE
A GOOD CHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITION. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS EFFECTIVE THROUGH
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. CURRENTLY WE EXPECT A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
BECAUSE POPS ARE RELATIVELY LOW, THE ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE AT 6
PM TODAY.

A WEAK FRONT LATER SUNDAY WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT, BUT NOT MUCH
COLDER AIR. STRONG WARMING ALOFT AND MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING RAIN TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND A CHANCE ELSEWHERE BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATER IN THE DAY. AFTER A COLD DAY WEDNESDAY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE LINGERING UPPER LONG-WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  32  30  44  29 /  80  40  40  10
HOBART OK         30  28  45  30 /  80  40  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  31  29  47  35 /  50  40  40  30
GAGE OK           30  26  39  24 /  80  30  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     30  28  41  26 /  90  60  40  10
DURANT OK         34  32  45  36 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>008-010>013-015>020-023>032-038>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ009-014-021-
     022-033>037.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-
     089-090.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ083>085-087-
     088.

&&

$$

26/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 281016
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
416 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING, LIKELY TO GIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES. LESSER SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH WHERE SNOW WILL MIX THROUGH THE
TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS STRONG WARMING OCCURS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WORKS IT WAY TOWARD THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE MAIN WAVE HELPING MORNING SNOW PRODUCTION
IN THE NORTH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, LESS SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL
EXIST IN SOUTHERN AREAS, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STILL CREATE
A GOOD CHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITION. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS EFFECTIVE THROUGH
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. CURRENTLY WE EXPECT A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
BECAUSE POPS ARE RELATIVELY LOW, THE ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE AT 6
PM TODAY.

A WEAK FRONT LATER SUNDAY WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT, BUT NOT MUCH
COLDER AIR. STRONG WARMING ALOFT AND MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING RAIN TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND A CHANCE ELSEWHERE BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATER IN THE DAY. AFTER A COLD DAY WEDNESDAY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE LINGERING UPPER LONG-WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  32  30  44  29 /  80  40  40  10
HOBART OK         30  28  45  30 /  80  40  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  31  29  47  35 /  50  40  40  30
GAGE OK           30  26  39  24 /  80  30  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     30  28  41  26 /  90  60  40  10
DURANT OK         34  32  45  36 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>008-010>013-015>020-023>032-038>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ009-014-021-
     022-033>037.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-
     089-090.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ083>085-087-
     088.

&&

$$

26/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 281016
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
416 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING, LIKELY TO GIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES. LESSER SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH WHERE SNOW WILL MIX THROUGH THE
TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS STRONG WARMING OCCURS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WORKS IT WAY TOWARD THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE MAIN WAVE HELPING MORNING SNOW PRODUCTION
IN THE NORTH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, LESS SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL
EXIST IN SOUTHERN AREAS, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STILL CREATE
A GOOD CHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITION. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS EFFECTIVE THROUGH
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. CURRENTLY WE EXPECT A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
BECAUSE POPS ARE RELATIVELY LOW, THE ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE AT 6
PM TODAY.

A WEAK FRONT LATER SUNDAY WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT, BUT NOT MUCH
COLDER AIR. STRONG WARMING ALOFT AND MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING RAIN TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND A CHANCE ELSEWHERE BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATER IN THE DAY. AFTER A COLD DAY WEDNESDAY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE LINGERING UPPER LONG-WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  32  30  44  29 /  80  40  40  10
HOBART OK         30  28  45  30 /  80  40  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  31  29  47  35 /  50  40  40  30
GAGE OK           30  26  39  24 /  80  30  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     30  28  41  26 /  90  60  40  10
DURANT OK         34  32  45  36 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>008-010>013-015>020-023>032-038>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ009-014-021-
     022-033>037.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-
     089-090.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ083>085-087-
     088.

&&

$$

26/09




000
FXUS64 KTSA 280943
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
343 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SNOW TO CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH NE OK AND NW
TO SEE ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCH TOTALS. SE OK WILL BEGIN TO SEE GRADUAL
CHANGEOVER TO A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM ADVECTION
BEGINS. THIS TRANSITION WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPECTED FROM LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WARMER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO OVER
TAKE THE REGION. THE CURRENT ADVISORY RUNS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD IT WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND
06Z. WILL LET DAY SHIFT HANDLE THAT SINCE IT FALLS UNDER THE FIRST
PERIOD OF THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN
MAINLY LIQUID...BUT THE NEXT BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WARM
UP ENSUES MONDAY...WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. WILL KEEP MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE COLDER AIR EXPANDS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY... THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SEE A PERIOD
OF SETTLED...AND WARMER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   30  28  40  28 / 100  60  50  20
FSM   32  31  42  33 /  50  40  50  30
MLC   33  31  44  32 /  70  40  50  30
BVO   29  27  38  24 / 100  80  50  10
FYV   29  29  39  26 /  60  50  50  30
BYV   28  28  37  25 /  60  50  50  30
MKO   31  28  42  28 /  70  40  50  30
MIO   29  28  37  24 / 100  80  50  10
F10   32  29  43  29 /  70  40  50  20
HHW   34  33  46  37 /  50  40  50  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 280943
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
343 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SNOW TO CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH NE OK AND NW
TO SEE ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCH TOTALS. SE OK WILL BEGIN TO SEE GRADUAL
CHANGEOVER TO A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM ADVECTION
BEGINS. THIS TRANSITION WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPECTED FROM LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WARMER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO OVER
TAKE THE REGION. THE CURRENT ADVISORY RUNS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD IT WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND
06Z. WILL LET DAY SHIFT HANDLE THAT SINCE IT FALLS UNDER THE FIRST
PERIOD OF THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN
MAINLY LIQUID...BUT THE NEXT BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WARM
UP ENSUES MONDAY...WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. WILL KEEP MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE COLDER AIR EXPANDS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY... THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SEE A PERIOD
OF SETTLED...AND WARMER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   30  28  40  28 / 100  60  50  20
FSM   32  31  42  33 /  50  40  50  30
MLC   33  31  44  32 /  70  40  50  30
BVO   29  27  38  24 / 100  80  50  10
FYV   29  29  39  26 /  60  50  50  30
BYV   28  28  37  25 /  60  50  50  30
MKO   31  28  42  28 /  70  40  50  30
MIO   29  28  37  24 / 100  80  50  10
F10   32  29  43  29 /  70  40  50  20
HHW   34  33  46  37 /  50  40  50  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 280506
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1106 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES. INTERMITTENT SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY AREAS OF SNOW.

A NEW WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL TO ALL
SITES BEGINNING DURING THE DAY SATURDAY . IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THIS
SYSTEM.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF THIS EVENING BUT NOT BEFORE A
NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW DUMPED 5-7 INCHES
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF TULSA. THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
ALREADY UNDERWAY HOWEVER AS AREAS OF SNOW ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES. THE HRRR INDICATES THESE SNOW AREAS WILL EXPAND SLOWLY
NORTH OVERNIGHT AND INTENSIFY AROUND SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...HAVE
EXPANDED AND EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM NOW UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN
SOME PLACES.

THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. A CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT SLEET AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY
EVEN DOWN TO THE RED RIVER GIVEN THE VERY COLD ANTECEDENT
TEMPERATURES.

HAVE UPDATED POPS...SNOW AMOUNTS AND TEMPS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 280506
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1106 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES. INTERMITTENT SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY AREAS OF SNOW.

A NEW WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL TO ALL
SITES BEGINNING DURING THE DAY SATURDAY . IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THIS
SYSTEM.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF THIS EVENING BUT NOT BEFORE A
NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW DUMPED 5-7 INCHES
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF TULSA. THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
ALREADY UNDERWAY HOWEVER AS AREAS OF SNOW ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES. THE HRRR INDICATES THESE SNOW AREAS WILL EXPAND SLOWLY
NORTH OVERNIGHT AND INTENSIFY AROUND SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...HAVE
EXPANDED AND EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM NOW UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN
SOME PLACES.

THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. A CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT SLEET AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY
EVEN DOWN TO THE RED RIVER GIVEN THE VERY COLD ANTECEDENT
TEMPERATURES.

HAVE UPDATED POPS...SNOW AMOUNTS AND TEMPS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KOUN 280444
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1044 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED
AFTER 2 AM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED ONE BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTOGENESIS AROUND 800 MB FROM NEAR CHICKASHA TO NORMAN TO
SEMINOLE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
IT MOVES NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY A DUSTING TO
ONE INCH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE NEXT ROUND IS JUST GETTING STARTED OVER THE PANHANDLES
TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BEGIN TO BE IMPACTED IN THE
6 AM TO 8 AM RANGE. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER TYPE...THOUGH SOME SLEET AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR
OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS WARMER AIR
ALOFT MOVES IN. KEPT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH
THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE BANDING OF
MODERATE SNOW IS HIGHEST...ALTHOUGH LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST SNOW FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO I-40.

DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE ANOTHER BIG CONCERN...AND WILL ONLY ENHANCE SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. ALTHOUGH ICE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
AND GENERALLY UNDER 0.10 INCH...GLAZING MAY BE WIDESPREAD.

SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY IN MANY
LOCATIONS. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING FIRST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

THROUGH 09Z...THINK ALL LOCATIONS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR/MVFR
WITH AREAS OF -SN. IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR BRIEFLY AT NEARLY
ANY SITE EXCEPT KPNC.

AFTER 09Z...ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVIER -SN WITH IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA. KOKC WILL BE
AFFECTED MAINLY 12-21Z AND KLAW WILL BE AFFECTED 10-19Z. KSPS
MAY BE AFFECTED 10-17Z AS WELL. -PL MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF KCSM-
KSWO...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE.

AFTER 17Z...-FZDZ WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD...
AFFECTING MAINLY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF KCSM-KOKC. IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL.
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 00Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

THROUGH 09Z...THINK ALL LOCATIONS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR/MVFR
WITH -SN FLURRIES.

AFTER 09Z...ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVIER -SN WITH IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA. KOKC WILL BE
AFFECTED MAINLY 12-21Z AND KLAW WILL BE AFFECTED 10-19Z. KSPS
MAY BE AFFECTED 10-17Z AS WELL.

AFTER 17Z...FZDZ MAY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD...AFFECTING
MAINLY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF KCSM-KOKC. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST ROUND OF THIS MULTI-PART WEATHER EVENT IS STARTING TO
WIND DOWN. THROUGH MIDNIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SHOULD BE
RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THINGS BEGIN TO TURN VERY COMPLICATED TOMORROW...AS
HIGHER TEMPERATURES START TO ADVANCE NORTH. THIS WILL...OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND...TURN THE SNOW TO SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN...AND THEN RAIN...WITH VARIOUS COMBINATIONS THEREOF DURING
THE TRANSITION PERIOD.

THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED ADVISORIES APPEAR TO MAKE SENSE FOR THE
REST OF TODAY/THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED
TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. THIS MAY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF OUR CURRENT ADVISORY FOR
THAT AREA.

THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL WAVE SHOULD AFFECT THE
NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES IN OKLAHOMA TOMORROW. SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT
WILL BE NEW WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION PRECLUDE ISSUING
THEM NOW.

BY TUESDAY...MOST OF THE WINTER WEATHER WILL TEMPORARILY MAKE WAY
FOR A SPRINGLIKE DAY...COMPLETE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF OKLAHOMA. AT THIS
TIME...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY.

IN KEEPING WITH THE THEME OF WILD EXTREMES OF WEATHER...ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND LATE TUESDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR OTHER FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. AND...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ019-
     020-025-026-028>032-040>043-047-048.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-024>032-040>043-047-048.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR OKZ004>006-
     010-011-015>017-023-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR OKZ009-014-
     021-022-034-035.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR OKZ039-
     044>046-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR OKZ033-036-
     037.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR TXZ086-089-
     090.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR TXZ083>085-
     087-088.

&&

$$

03/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280444
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1044 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED
AFTER 2 AM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED ONE BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTOGENESIS AROUND 800 MB FROM NEAR CHICKASHA TO NORMAN TO
SEMINOLE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
IT MOVES NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY A DUSTING TO
ONE INCH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE NEXT ROUND IS JUST GETTING STARTED OVER THE PANHANDLES
TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BEGIN TO BE IMPACTED IN THE
6 AM TO 8 AM RANGE. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER TYPE...THOUGH SOME SLEET AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR
OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS WARMER AIR
ALOFT MOVES IN. KEPT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH
THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE BANDING OF
MODERATE SNOW IS HIGHEST...ALTHOUGH LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST SNOW FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO I-40.

DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE ANOTHER BIG CONCERN...AND WILL ONLY ENHANCE SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. ALTHOUGH ICE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
AND GENERALLY UNDER 0.10 INCH...GLAZING MAY BE WIDESPREAD.

SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY IN MANY
LOCATIONS. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING FIRST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

THROUGH 09Z...THINK ALL LOCATIONS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR/MVFR
WITH AREAS OF -SN. IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR BRIEFLY AT NEARLY
ANY SITE EXCEPT KPNC.

AFTER 09Z...ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVIER -SN WITH IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA. KOKC WILL BE
AFFECTED MAINLY 12-21Z AND KLAW WILL BE AFFECTED 10-19Z. KSPS
MAY BE AFFECTED 10-17Z AS WELL. -PL MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF KCSM-
KSWO...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE.

AFTER 17Z...-FZDZ WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD...
AFFECTING MAINLY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF KCSM-KOKC. IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL.
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 00Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

THROUGH 09Z...THINK ALL LOCATIONS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR/MVFR
WITH -SN FLURRIES.

AFTER 09Z...ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVIER -SN WITH IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA. KOKC WILL BE
AFFECTED MAINLY 12-21Z AND KLAW WILL BE AFFECTED 10-19Z. KSPS
MAY BE AFFECTED 10-17Z AS WELL.

AFTER 17Z...FZDZ MAY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD...AFFECTING
MAINLY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF KCSM-KOKC. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST ROUND OF THIS MULTI-PART WEATHER EVENT IS STARTING TO
WIND DOWN. THROUGH MIDNIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SHOULD BE
RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THINGS BEGIN TO TURN VERY COMPLICATED TOMORROW...AS
HIGHER TEMPERATURES START TO ADVANCE NORTH. THIS WILL...OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND...TURN THE SNOW TO SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN...AND THEN RAIN...WITH VARIOUS COMBINATIONS THEREOF DURING
THE TRANSITION PERIOD.

THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED ADVISORIES APPEAR TO MAKE SENSE FOR THE
REST OF TODAY/THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED
TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. THIS MAY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF OUR CURRENT ADVISORY FOR
THAT AREA.

THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL WAVE SHOULD AFFECT THE
NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES IN OKLAHOMA TOMORROW. SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT
WILL BE NEW WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION PRECLUDE ISSUING
THEM NOW.

BY TUESDAY...MOST OF THE WINTER WEATHER WILL TEMPORARILY MAKE WAY
FOR A SPRINGLIKE DAY...COMPLETE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF OKLAHOMA. AT THIS
TIME...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY.

IN KEEPING WITH THE THEME OF WILD EXTREMES OF WEATHER...ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND LATE TUESDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR OTHER FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. AND...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ019-
     020-025-026-028>032-040>043-047-048.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-024>032-040>043-047-048.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR OKZ004>006-
     010-011-015>017-023-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR OKZ009-014-
     021-022-034-035.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR OKZ039-
     044>046-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR OKZ033-036-
     037.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR TXZ086-089-
     090.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR TXZ083>085-
     087-088.

&&

$$

03/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280444
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1044 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED
AFTER 2 AM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED ONE BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTOGENESIS AROUND 800 MB FROM NEAR CHICKASHA TO NORMAN TO
SEMINOLE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
IT MOVES NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY A DUSTING TO
ONE INCH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE NEXT ROUND IS JUST GETTING STARTED OVER THE PANHANDLES
TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BEGIN TO BE IMPACTED IN THE
6 AM TO 8 AM RANGE. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER TYPE...THOUGH SOME SLEET AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR
OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS WARMER AIR
ALOFT MOVES IN. KEPT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH
THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE BANDING OF
MODERATE SNOW IS HIGHEST...ALTHOUGH LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST SNOW FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO I-40.

DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE ANOTHER BIG CONCERN...AND WILL ONLY ENHANCE SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. ALTHOUGH ICE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
AND GENERALLY UNDER 0.10 INCH...GLAZING MAY BE WIDESPREAD.

SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY IN MANY
LOCATIONS. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING FIRST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

THROUGH 09Z...THINK ALL LOCATIONS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR/MVFR
WITH AREAS OF -SN. IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR BRIEFLY AT NEARLY
ANY SITE EXCEPT KPNC.

AFTER 09Z...ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVIER -SN WITH IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA. KOKC WILL BE
AFFECTED MAINLY 12-21Z AND KLAW WILL BE AFFECTED 10-19Z. KSPS
MAY BE AFFECTED 10-17Z AS WELL. -PL MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF KCSM-
KSWO...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE.

AFTER 17Z...-FZDZ WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD...
AFFECTING MAINLY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF KCSM-KOKC. IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL.
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 00Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

THROUGH 09Z...THINK ALL LOCATIONS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR/MVFR
WITH -SN FLURRIES.

AFTER 09Z...ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVIER -SN WITH IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA. KOKC WILL BE
AFFECTED MAINLY 12-21Z AND KLAW WILL BE AFFECTED 10-19Z. KSPS
MAY BE AFFECTED 10-17Z AS WELL.

AFTER 17Z...FZDZ MAY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD...AFFECTING
MAINLY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF KCSM-KOKC. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST ROUND OF THIS MULTI-PART WEATHER EVENT IS STARTING TO
WIND DOWN. THROUGH MIDNIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SHOULD BE
RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THINGS BEGIN TO TURN VERY COMPLICATED TOMORROW...AS
HIGHER TEMPERATURES START TO ADVANCE NORTH. THIS WILL...OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND...TURN THE SNOW TO SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN...AND THEN RAIN...WITH VARIOUS COMBINATIONS THEREOF DURING
THE TRANSITION PERIOD.

THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED ADVISORIES APPEAR TO MAKE SENSE FOR THE
REST OF TODAY/THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED
TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. THIS MAY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF OUR CURRENT ADVISORY FOR
THAT AREA.

THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL WAVE SHOULD AFFECT THE
NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES IN OKLAHOMA TOMORROW. SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT
WILL BE NEW WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION PRECLUDE ISSUING
THEM NOW.

BY TUESDAY...MOST OF THE WINTER WEATHER WILL TEMPORARILY MAKE WAY
FOR A SPRINGLIKE DAY...COMPLETE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF OKLAHOMA. AT THIS
TIME...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY.

IN KEEPING WITH THE THEME OF WILD EXTREMES OF WEATHER...ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND LATE TUESDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR OTHER FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. AND...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ019-
     020-025-026-028>032-040>043-047-048.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-024>032-040>043-047-048.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR OKZ004>006-
     010-011-015>017-023-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR OKZ009-014-
     021-022-034-035.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR OKZ039-
     044>046-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR OKZ033-036-
     037.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR TXZ086-089-
     090.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR TXZ083>085-
     087-088.

&&

$$

03/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280444
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1044 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED
AFTER 2 AM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED ONE BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTOGENESIS AROUND 800 MB FROM NEAR CHICKASHA TO NORMAN TO
SEMINOLE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
IT MOVES NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY A DUSTING TO
ONE INCH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE NEXT ROUND IS JUST GETTING STARTED OVER THE PANHANDLES
TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BEGIN TO BE IMPACTED IN THE
6 AM TO 8 AM RANGE. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER TYPE...THOUGH SOME SLEET AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR
OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS WARMER AIR
ALOFT MOVES IN. KEPT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH
THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE BANDING OF
MODERATE SNOW IS HIGHEST...ALTHOUGH LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST SNOW FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO I-40.

DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE ANOTHER BIG CONCERN...AND WILL ONLY ENHANCE SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. ALTHOUGH ICE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
AND GENERALLY UNDER 0.10 INCH...GLAZING MAY BE WIDESPREAD.

SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY IN MANY
LOCATIONS. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING FIRST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

THROUGH 09Z...THINK ALL LOCATIONS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR/MVFR
WITH AREAS OF -SN. IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR BRIEFLY AT NEARLY
ANY SITE EXCEPT KPNC.

AFTER 09Z...ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVIER -SN WITH IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA. KOKC WILL BE
AFFECTED MAINLY 12-21Z AND KLAW WILL BE AFFECTED 10-19Z. KSPS
MAY BE AFFECTED 10-17Z AS WELL. -PL MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF KCSM-
KSWO...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE.

AFTER 17Z...-FZDZ WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD...
AFFECTING MAINLY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF KCSM-KOKC. IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL.
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 00Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

THROUGH 09Z...THINK ALL LOCATIONS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR/MVFR
WITH -SN FLURRIES.

AFTER 09Z...ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVIER -SN WITH IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA. KOKC WILL BE
AFFECTED MAINLY 12-21Z AND KLAW WILL BE AFFECTED 10-19Z. KSPS
MAY BE AFFECTED 10-17Z AS WELL.

AFTER 17Z...FZDZ MAY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD...AFFECTING
MAINLY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF KCSM-KOKC. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST ROUND OF THIS MULTI-PART WEATHER EVENT IS STARTING TO
WIND DOWN. THROUGH MIDNIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SHOULD BE
RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THINGS BEGIN TO TURN VERY COMPLICATED TOMORROW...AS
HIGHER TEMPERATURES START TO ADVANCE NORTH. THIS WILL...OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND...TURN THE SNOW TO SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN...AND THEN RAIN...WITH VARIOUS COMBINATIONS THEREOF DURING
THE TRANSITION PERIOD.

THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED ADVISORIES APPEAR TO MAKE SENSE FOR THE
REST OF TODAY/THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED
TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. THIS MAY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF OUR CURRENT ADVISORY FOR
THAT AREA.

THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL WAVE SHOULD AFFECT THE
NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES IN OKLAHOMA TOMORROW. SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT
WILL BE NEW WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION PRECLUDE ISSUING
THEM NOW.

BY TUESDAY...MOST OF THE WINTER WEATHER WILL TEMPORARILY MAKE WAY
FOR A SPRINGLIKE DAY...COMPLETE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF OKLAHOMA. AT THIS
TIME...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY.

IN KEEPING WITH THE THEME OF WILD EXTREMES OF WEATHER...ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND LATE TUESDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR OTHER FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. AND...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ019-
     020-025-026-028>032-040>043-047-048.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-024>032-040>043-047-048.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR OKZ004>006-
     010-011-015>017-023-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR OKZ009-014-
     021-022-034-035.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR OKZ039-
     044>046-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR OKZ033-036-
     037.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR TXZ086-089-
     090.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR TXZ083>085-
     087-088.

&&

$$

03/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280444
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1044 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED
AFTER 2 AM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED ONE BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTOGENESIS AROUND 800 MB FROM NEAR CHICKASHA TO NORMAN TO
SEMINOLE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
IT MOVES NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY A DUSTING TO
ONE INCH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE NEXT ROUND IS JUST GETTING STARTED OVER THE PANHANDLES
TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BEGIN TO BE IMPACTED IN THE
6 AM TO 8 AM RANGE. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER TYPE...THOUGH SOME SLEET AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR
OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS WARMER AIR
ALOFT MOVES IN. KEPT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH
THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE BANDING OF
MODERATE SNOW IS HIGHEST...ALTHOUGH LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST SNOW FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO I-40.

DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE ANOTHER BIG CONCERN...AND WILL ONLY ENHANCE SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. ALTHOUGH ICE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
AND GENERALLY UNDER 0.10 INCH...GLAZING MAY BE WIDESPREAD.

SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY IN MANY
LOCATIONS. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING FIRST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

THROUGH 09Z...THINK ALL LOCATIONS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR/MVFR
WITH AREAS OF -SN. IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR BRIEFLY AT NEARLY
ANY SITE EXCEPT KPNC.

AFTER 09Z...ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVIER -SN WITH IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA. KOKC WILL BE
AFFECTED MAINLY 12-21Z AND KLAW WILL BE AFFECTED 10-19Z. KSPS
MAY BE AFFECTED 10-17Z AS WELL. -PL MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF KCSM-
KSWO...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE.

AFTER 17Z...-FZDZ WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD...
AFFECTING MAINLY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF KCSM-KOKC. IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL.
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 00Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

THROUGH 09Z...THINK ALL LOCATIONS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR/MVFR
WITH -SN FLURRIES.

AFTER 09Z...ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVIER -SN WITH IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA. KOKC WILL BE
AFFECTED MAINLY 12-21Z AND KLAW WILL BE AFFECTED 10-19Z. KSPS
MAY BE AFFECTED 10-17Z AS WELL.

AFTER 17Z...FZDZ MAY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD...AFFECTING
MAINLY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF KCSM-KOKC. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST ROUND OF THIS MULTI-PART WEATHER EVENT IS STARTING TO
WIND DOWN. THROUGH MIDNIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SHOULD BE
RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THINGS BEGIN TO TURN VERY COMPLICATED TOMORROW...AS
HIGHER TEMPERATURES START TO ADVANCE NORTH. THIS WILL...OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND...TURN THE SNOW TO SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN...AND THEN RAIN...WITH VARIOUS COMBINATIONS THEREOF DURING
THE TRANSITION PERIOD.

THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED ADVISORIES APPEAR TO MAKE SENSE FOR THE
REST OF TODAY/THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED
TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. THIS MAY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF OUR CURRENT ADVISORY FOR
THAT AREA.

THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL WAVE SHOULD AFFECT THE
NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES IN OKLAHOMA TOMORROW. SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT
WILL BE NEW WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION PRECLUDE ISSUING
THEM NOW.

BY TUESDAY...MOST OF THE WINTER WEATHER WILL TEMPORARILY MAKE WAY
FOR A SPRINGLIKE DAY...COMPLETE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF OKLAHOMA. AT THIS
TIME...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY.

IN KEEPING WITH THE THEME OF WILD EXTREMES OF WEATHER...ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND LATE TUESDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR OTHER FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. AND...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ019-
     020-025-026-028>032-040>043-047-048.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-024>032-040>043-047-048.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR OKZ004>006-
     010-011-015>017-023-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR OKZ009-014-
     021-022-034-035.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR OKZ039-
     044>046-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR OKZ033-036-
     037.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR TXZ086-089-
     090.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR TXZ083>085-
     087-088.

&&

$$

03/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 280358
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
958 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF THIS EVENING BUT NOT BEFORE A
NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW DUMPED 5-7 INCHES
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF TULSA. THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
ALREADY UNDERWAY HOWEVER AS AREAS OF SNOW ARE DEVELOPING ACORSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES. THE HRRR INDICATES THESE SNOW AREAS WILL EXPAND SLOWLY
NORTH OVERNIGHT AND INTENSIFY AROUND SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...HAVE
EXPANDED AND EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM NOW UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN
SOME PLACES.

THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. A CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT SLEET AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY
EVEN DOWN TO THE RED RIVER GIVEN THE VERY COLD ANTECEDENT
TEMPERATURES.

HAVE UPDATED POPS...SNOW AMOUNTS AND TEMPS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 280358
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
958 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF THIS EVENING BUT NOT BEFORE A
NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW DUMPED 5-7 INCHES
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF TULSA. THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
ALREADY UNDERWAY HOWEVER AS AREAS OF SNOW ARE DEVELOPING ACORSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES. THE HRRR INDICATES THESE SNOW AREAS WILL EXPAND SLOWLY
NORTH OVERNIGHT AND INTENSIFY AROUND SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...HAVE
EXPANDED AND EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM NOW UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN
SOME PLACES.

THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. A CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT SLEET AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY
EVEN DOWN TO THE RED RIVER GIVEN THE VERY COLD ANTECEDENT
TEMPERATURES.

HAVE UPDATED POPS...SNOW AMOUNTS AND TEMPS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 280358
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
958 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF THIS EVENING BUT NOT BEFORE A
NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW DUMPED 5-7 INCHES
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF TULSA. THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
ALREADY UNDERWAY HOWEVER AS AREAS OF SNOW ARE DEVELOPING ACORSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES. THE HRRR INDICATES THESE SNOW AREAS WILL EXPAND SLOWLY
NORTH OVERNIGHT AND INTENSIFY AROUND SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...HAVE
EXPANDED AND EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM NOW UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN
SOME PLACES.

THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. A CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT SLEET AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY
EVEN DOWN TO THE RED RIVER GIVEN THE VERY COLD ANTECEDENT
TEMPERATURES.

HAVE UPDATED POPS...SNOW AMOUNTS AND TEMPS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 280358
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
958 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF THIS EVENING BUT NOT BEFORE A
NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW DUMPED 5-7 INCHES
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF TULSA. THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
ALREADY UNDERWAY HOWEVER AS AREAS OF SNOW ARE DEVELOPING ACORSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES. THE HRRR INDICATES THESE SNOW AREAS WILL EXPAND SLOWLY
NORTH OVERNIGHT AND INTENSIFY AROUND SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...HAVE
EXPANDED AND EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM NOW UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN
SOME PLACES.

THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. A CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT SLEET AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY
EVEN DOWN TO THE RED RIVER GIVEN THE VERY COLD ANTECEDENT
TEMPERATURES.

HAVE UPDATED POPS...SNOW AMOUNTS AND TEMPS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 280358
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
958 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF THIS EVENING BUT NOT BEFORE A
NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW DUMPED 5-7 INCHES
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF TULSA. THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
ALREADY UNDERWAY HOWEVER AS AREAS OF SNOW ARE DEVELOPING ACORSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES. THE HRRR INDICATES THESE SNOW AREAS WILL EXPAND SLOWLY
NORTH OVERNIGHT AND INTENSIFY AROUND SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...HAVE
EXPANDED AND EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM NOW UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN
SOME PLACES.

THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. A CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT SLEET AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY
EVEN DOWN TO THE RED RIVER GIVEN THE VERY COLD ANTECEDENT
TEMPERATURES.

HAVE UPDATED POPS...SNOW AMOUNTS AND TEMPS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE






000
FXUS64 KTSA 280358
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
958 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF THIS EVENING BUT NOT BEFORE A
NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW DUMPED 5-7 INCHES
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF TULSA. THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
ALREADY UNDERWAY HOWEVER AS AREAS OF SNOW ARE DEVELOPING ACORSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES. THE HRRR INDICATES THESE SNOW AREAS WILL EXPAND SLOWLY
NORTH OVERNIGHT AND INTENSIFY AROUND SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...HAVE
EXPANDED AND EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM NOW UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN
SOME PLACES.

THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. A CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT SLEET AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY
EVEN DOWN TO THE RED RIVER GIVEN THE VERY COLD ANTECEDENT
TEMPERATURES.

HAVE UPDATED POPS...SNOW AMOUNTS AND TEMPS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KOUN 272343
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
543 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

THROUGH 09Z...THINK ALL LOCATIONS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR/MVFR
WITH -SN FLURRIES.

AFTER 09Z...ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVIER -SN WITH IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA. KOKC WILL BE
AFFECTED MAINLY 12-21Z AND KLAW WILL BE AFFECTED 10-19Z. KSPS
MAY BE AFFECTED 10-17Z AS WELL.

AFTER 17Z...FZDZ MAY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD...AFFECTING
MAINLY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF KCSM-KOKC. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST ROUND OF THIS MULTI-PART WEATHER EVENT IS STARTING TO
WIND DOWN. THROUGH MIDNIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SHOULD BE
RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THINGS BEGIN TO TURN VERY COMPLICATED TOMORROW...AS
HIGHER TEMPERATURES START TO ADVANCE NORTH. THIS WILL...OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND...TURN THE SNOW TO SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN...AND THEN RAIN...WITH VARIOUS COMBINATIONS THEREOF DURING
THE TRANSITION PERIOD.

THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED ADVISORIES APPEAR TO MAKE SENSE FOR THE
REST OF TODAY/THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED
TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. THIS MAY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF OUR CURRENT ADVISORY FOR
THAT AREA.

THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL WAVE SHOULD AFFECT THE
NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES IN OKLAHOMA TOMORROW. SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT
WILL BE NEW WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION PRECLUDE ISSUING
THEM NOW.

BY TUESDAY...MOST OF THE WINTER WEATHER WILL TEMPORARILY MAKE WAY
FOR A SPRINGLIKE DAY...COMPLETE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF OKLAHOMA. AT THIS
TIME...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY.

IN KEEPING WITH THE THEME OF WILD EXTREMES OF WEATHER...ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND LATE TUESDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR OTHER FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. AND...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-
     009>036-038-040>043.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ004>013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ037-
     039-044>048-050>052.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ084>090.

&&

$$

03/17/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 272343
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
543 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

THROUGH 09Z...THINK ALL LOCATIONS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR/MVFR
WITH -SN FLURRIES.

AFTER 09Z...ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVIER -SN WITH IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA. KOKC WILL BE
AFFECTED MAINLY 12-21Z AND KLAW WILL BE AFFECTED 10-19Z. KSPS
MAY BE AFFECTED 10-17Z AS WELL.

AFTER 17Z...FZDZ MAY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD...AFFECTING
MAINLY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF KCSM-KOKC. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST ROUND OF THIS MULTI-PART WEATHER EVENT IS STARTING TO
WIND DOWN. THROUGH MIDNIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SHOULD BE
RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THINGS BEGIN TO TURN VERY COMPLICATED TOMORROW...AS
HIGHER TEMPERATURES START TO ADVANCE NORTH. THIS WILL...OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND...TURN THE SNOW TO SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN...AND THEN RAIN...WITH VARIOUS COMBINATIONS THEREOF DURING
THE TRANSITION PERIOD.

THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED ADVISORIES APPEAR TO MAKE SENSE FOR THE
REST OF TODAY/THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED
TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. THIS MAY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF OUR CURRENT ADVISORY FOR
THAT AREA.

THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL WAVE SHOULD AFFECT THE
NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES IN OKLAHOMA TOMORROW. SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT
WILL BE NEW WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION PRECLUDE ISSUING
THEM NOW.

BY TUESDAY...MOST OF THE WINTER WEATHER WILL TEMPORARILY MAKE WAY
FOR A SPRINGLIKE DAY...COMPLETE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF OKLAHOMA. AT THIS
TIME...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY.

IN KEEPING WITH THE THEME OF WILD EXTREMES OF WEATHER...ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND LATE TUESDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR OTHER FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. AND...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-
     009>036-038-040>043.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ004>013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ037-
     039-044>048-050>052.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ084>090.

&&

$$

03/17/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 272300
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... LIGHT SNOWFALL AND ACCOMPANYING MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME IF A HEAVIER SNOW
BAND PASSES OVER A TERMINAL. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF VFR
CONDITIONS... ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION... LIKELY AFFECTING ALL SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING A NARROW BUT HEAVY SNOW BAND
NORTHWEST OF TULSA. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HEAVIER BANDS.
THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS INITIAL WAVE
PASSES TO THE EAST. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
AFOREMENTIONED AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER THIS COULD BE
CANCELED A LITTLE EARLY GIVEN ALL THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS
EVENING.

ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER JET
STREAK BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AREAS OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
DURING THE DAY WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OK/KS AND AR/MO BOARDERS. LINGERING
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN AS MID
LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT. CURRENTLY...ICE/SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY.

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN/DESERT SOUTHWEST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF NEXT
COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
FROPA DURING THIS TIME COMPARED TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS AND
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND CONCERNING THE TIMING DIFFERENCES.

COLD/BRISK CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. DRY
FORECAST EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
     FOR ARZ001-ARZ002.

&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 272300
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... LIGHT SNOWFALL AND ACCOMPANYING MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME IF A HEAVIER SNOW
BAND PASSES OVER A TERMINAL. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF VFR
CONDITIONS... ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION... LIKELY AFFECTING ALL SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING A NARROW BUT HEAVY SNOW BAND
NORTHWEST OF TULSA. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HEAVIER BANDS.
THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS INITIAL WAVE
PASSES TO THE EAST. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
AFOREMENTIONED AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER THIS COULD BE
CANCELED A LITTLE EARLY GIVEN ALL THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS
EVENING.

ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER JET
STREAK BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AREAS OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
DURING THE DAY WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OK/KS AND AR/MO BOARDERS. LINGERING
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN AS MID
LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT. CURRENTLY...ICE/SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY.

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN/DESERT SOUTHWEST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF NEXT
COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
FROPA DURING THIS TIME COMPARED TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS AND
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND CONCERNING THE TIMING DIFFERENCES.

COLD/BRISK CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. DRY
FORECAST EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
     FOR ARZ001-ARZ002.

&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 272300
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... LIGHT SNOWFALL AND ACCOMPANYING MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME IF A HEAVIER SNOW
BAND PASSES OVER A TERMINAL. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF VFR
CONDITIONS... ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION... LIKELY AFFECTING ALL SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING A NARROW BUT HEAVY SNOW BAND
NORTHWEST OF TULSA. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HEAVIER BANDS.
THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS INITIAL WAVE
PASSES TO THE EAST. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
AFOREMENTIONED AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER THIS COULD BE
CANCELED A LITTLE EARLY GIVEN ALL THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS
EVENING.

ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER JET
STREAK BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AREAS OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
DURING THE DAY WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OK/KS AND AR/MO BOARDERS. LINGERING
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN AS MID
LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT. CURRENTLY...ICE/SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY.

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN/DESERT SOUTHWEST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF NEXT
COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
FROPA DURING THIS TIME COMPARED TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS AND
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND CONCERNING THE TIMING DIFFERENCES.

COLD/BRISK CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. DRY
FORECAST EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
     FOR ARZ001-ARZ002.

&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 272057
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
257 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING A NARROW BUT HEAVY SNOW BAND
NORTHWEST OF TULSA. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HEAVIER BANDS.
THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS INITIAL WAVE
PASSES TO THE EAST. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
AFOREMENTIONED AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER THIS COULD BE
CANCELED A LITTLE EARLY GIVEN ALL THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS
EVENING.

ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER JET
STREAK BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AREAS OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
DURING THE DAY WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OK/KS AND AR/MO BOARDERS. LINGERING
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN AS MID
LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT. CURRENTLY...ICE/SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY.

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN/DESERT SOUTHWEST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF NEXT
COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
FROPA DURING THIS TIME COMPARED TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS AND
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND CONCERNING THE TIMING DIFFERENCES.

COLD/BRISK CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. DRY
FORECAST EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   19  32  29  40 /  30  90  60  50
FSM   22  34  32  43 /  20  60  40  60
MLC   21  33  31  46 /  30  60  40  50
BVO   18  31  29  42 /  30  90  80  60
FYV   17  32  29  45 /  20  70  50  60
BYV   17  29  29  42 /  20  60  50  60
MKO   20  31  28  42 /  20  80  40  50
MIO   18  32  29  39 /  20  80  80  60
F10   20  32  29  43 /  30  80  40  50
HHW   25  36  35  46 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ071-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-
     OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
     FOR ARZ001-ARZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 272057
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
257 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING A NARROW BUT HEAVY SNOW BAND
NORTHWEST OF TULSA. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HEAVIER BANDS.
THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS INITIAL WAVE
PASSES TO THE EAST. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
AFOREMENTIONED AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER THIS COULD BE
CANCELED A LITTLE EARLY GIVEN ALL THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS
EVENING.

ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER JET
STREAK BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AREAS OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
DURING THE DAY WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OK/KS AND AR/MO BOARDERS. LINGERING
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN AS MID
LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT. CURRENTLY...ICE/SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY.

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN/DESERT SOUTHWEST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF NEXT
COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
FROPA DURING THIS TIME COMPARED TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS AND
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND CONCERNING THE TIMING DIFFERENCES.

COLD/BRISK CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. DRY
FORECAST EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   19  32  29  40 /  30  90  60  50
FSM   22  34  32  43 /  20  60  40  60
MLC   21  33  31  46 /  30  60  40  50
BVO   18  31  29  42 /  30  90  80  60
FYV   17  32  29  45 /  20  70  50  60
BYV   17  29  29  42 /  20  60  50  60
MKO   20  31  28  42 /  20  80  40  50
MIO   18  32  29  39 /  20  80  80  60
F10   20  32  29  43 /  30  80  40  50
HHW   25  36  35  46 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ071-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-
     OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
     FOR ARZ001-ARZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 272057
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
257 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING A NARROW BUT HEAVY SNOW BAND
NORTHWEST OF TULSA. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HEAVIER BANDS.
THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS INITIAL WAVE
PASSES TO THE EAST. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
AFOREMENTIONED AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER THIS COULD BE
CANCELED A LITTLE EARLY GIVEN ALL THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS
EVENING.

ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER JET
STREAK BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AREAS OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
DURING THE DAY WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OK/KS AND AR/MO BOARDERS. LINGERING
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN AS MID
LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT. CURRENTLY...ICE/SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY.

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN/DESERT SOUTHWEST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF NEXT
COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
FROPA DURING THIS TIME COMPARED TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS AND
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND CONCERNING THE TIMING DIFFERENCES.

COLD/BRISK CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. DRY
FORECAST EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   19  32  29  40 /  30  90  60  50
FSM   22  34  32  43 /  20  60  40  60
MLC   21  33  31  46 /  30  60  40  50
BVO   18  31  29  42 /  30  90  80  60
FYV   17  32  29  45 /  20  70  50  60
BYV   17  29  29  42 /  20  60  50  60
MKO   20  31  28  42 /  20  80  40  50
MIO   18  32  29  39 /  20  80  80  60
F10   20  32  29  43 /  30  80  40  50
HHW   25  36  35  46 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ071-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-
     OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
     FOR ARZ001-ARZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KOUN 272056
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST ROUND OF THIS MULTI-PART WEATHER EVENT IS STARTING TO
WIND DOWN. THROUGH MIDNIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SHOULD BE
RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THINGS BEGIN TO TURN VERY COMPLICATED TOMORROW...AS
HIGHER TEMPERATURES START TO ADVANCE NORTH. THIS WILL...OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND...TURN THE SNOW TO SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN...AND THEN RAIN...WITH VARIOUS COMBINATIONS THEREOF DURING
THE TRANSITION PERIOD.

THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED ADVISORIES APPEAR TO MAKE SENSE FOR THE
REST OF TODAY/THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED
TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. THIS MAY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF OUR CURRENT ADVISORY FOR
THAT AREA.

THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL WAVE SHOULD AFFECT THE
NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES IN OKLAHOMA TOMORROW. SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT
WILL BE NEW WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION PRECLUDE ISSUING
THEM NOW.

BY TUESDAY...MOST OF THE WINTER WEATHER WILL TEMPORARILY MAKE WAY
FOR A SPRINGLIKE DAY...COMPLETE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF OKLAHOMA. AT THIS
TIME...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY.

IN KEEPING WITH THE THEME OF WILD EXTREMES OF WEATHER...ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND LATE TUESDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR OTHER FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. AND...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  19  32  30  44 /  30  60  40  40
HOBART OK         17  30  28  45 /  40  50  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  20  31  29  47 /  40  50  40  40
GAGE OK           14  30  26  39 /  40  70  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     17  30  28  41 /  20  80  60  40
DURANT OK         22  34  32  45 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-
     009>036-038-040>043.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ004>013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ037-
     039-044>048-050>052.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ084>090.

&&

$$

04/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 272056
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST ROUND OF THIS MULTI-PART WEATHER EVENT IS STARTING TO
WIND DOWN. THROUGH MIDNIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SHOULD BE
RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THINGS BEGIN TO TURN VERY COMPLICATED TOMORROW...AS
HIGHER TEMPERATURES START TO ADVANCE NORTH. THIS WILL...OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND...TURN THE SNOW TO SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN...AND THEN RAIN...WITH VARIOUS COMBINATIONS THEREOF DURING
THE TRANSITION PERIOD.

THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED ADVISORIES APPEAR TO MAKE SENSE FOR THE
REST OF TODAY/THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED
TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. THIS MAY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF OUR CURRENT ADVISORY FOR
THAT AREA.

THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL WAVE SHOULD AFFECT THE
NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES IN OKLAHOMA TOMORROW. SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT
WILL BE NEW WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION PRECLUDE ISSUING
THEM NOW.

BY TUESDAY...MOST OF THE WINTER WEATHER WILL TEMPORARILY MAKE WAY
FOR A SPRINGLIKE DAY...COMPLETE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF OKLAHOMA. AT THIS
TIME...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY.

IN KEEPING WITH THE THEME OF WILD EXTREMES OF WEATHER...ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND LATE TUESDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR OTHER FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. AND...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  19  32  30  44 /  30  60  40  40
HOBART OK         17  30  28  45 /  40  50  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  20  31  29  47 /  40  50  40  40
GAGE OK           14  30  26  39 /  40  70  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     17  30  28  41 /  20  80  60  40
DURANT OK         22  34  32  45 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-
     009>036-038-040>043.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ004>013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ037-
     039-044>048-050>052.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ084>090.

&&

$$

04/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 272056
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST ROUND OF THIS MULTI-PART WEATHER EVENT IS STARTING TO
WIND DOWN. THROUGH MIDNIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SHOULD BE
RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THINGS BEGIN TO TURN VERY COMPLICATED TOMORROW...AS
HIGHER TEMPERATURES START TO ADVANCE NORTH. THIS WILL...OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND...TURN THE SNOW TO SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN...AND THEN RAIN...WITH VARIOUS COMBINATIONS THEREOF DURING
THE TRANSITION PERIOD.

THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED ADVISORIES APPEAR TO MAKE SENSE FOR THE
REST OF TODAY/THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED
TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. THIS MAY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF OUR CURRENT ADVISORY FOR
THAT AREA.

THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL WAVE SHOULD AFFECT THE
NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES IN OKLAHOMA TOMORROW. SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT
WILL BE NEW WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION PRECLUDE ISSUING
THEM NOW.

BY TUESDAY...MOST OF THE WINTER WEATHER WILL TEMPORARILY MAKE WAY
FOR A SPRINGLIKE DAY...COMPLETE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF OKLAHOMA. AT THIS
TIME...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY.

IN KEEPING WITH THE THEME OF WILD EXTREMES OF WEATHER...ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND LATE TUESDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR OTHER FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. AND...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  19  32  30  44 /  30  60  40  40
HOBART OK         17  30  28  45 /  40  50  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  20  31  29  47 /  40  50  40  40
GAGE OK           14  30  26  39 /  40  70  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     17  30  28  41 /  20  80  60  40
DURANT OK         22  34  32  45 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-
     009>036-038-040>043.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ004>013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ037-
     039-044>048-050>052.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ084>090.

&&

$$

04/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 272056
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST ROUND OF THIS MULTI-PART WEATHER EVENT IS STARTING TO
WIND DOWN. THROUGH MIDNIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SHOULD BE
RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THINGS BEGIN TO TURN VERY COMPLICATED TOMORROW...AS
HIGHER TEMPERATURES START TO ADVANCE NORTH. THIS WILL...OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND...TURN THE SNOW TO SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN...AND THEN RAIN...WITH VARIOUS COMBINATIONS THEREOF DURING
THE TRANSITION PERIOD.

THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED ADVISORIES APPEAR TO MAKE SENSE FOR THE
REST OF TODAY/THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED
TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. THIS MAY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF OUR CURRENT ADVISORY FOR
THAT AREA.

THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL WAVE SHOULD AFFECT THE
NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES IN OKLAHOMA TOMORROW. SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT
WILL BE NEW WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION PRECLUDE ISSUING
THEM NOW.

BY TUESDAY...MOST OF THE WINTER WEATHER WILL TEMPORARILY MAKE WAY
FOR A SPRINGLIKE DAY...COMPLETE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF OKLAHOMA. AT THIS
TIME...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY.

IN KEEPING WITH THE THEME OF WILD EXTREMES OF WEATHER...ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND LATE TUESDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR OTHER FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. AND...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  19  32  30  44 /  30  60  40  40
HOBART OK         17  30  28  45 /  40  50  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  20  31  29  47 /  40  50  40  40
GAGE OK           14  30  26  39 /  40  70  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     17  30  28  41 /  20  80  60  40
DURANT OK         22  34  32  45 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-
     009>036-038-040>043.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ004>013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ037-
     039-044>048-050>052.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ084>090.

&&

$$

04/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 272056
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST ROUND OF THIS MULTI-PART WEATHER EVENT IS STARTING TO
WIND DOWN. THROUGH MIDNIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SHOULD BE
RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THINGS BEGIN TO TURN VERY COMPLICATED TOMORROW...AS
HIGHER TEMPERATURES START TO ADVANCE NORTH. THIS WILL...OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND...TURN THE SNOW TO SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN...AND THEN RAIN...WITH VARIOUS COMBINATIONS THEREOF DURING
THE TRANSITION PERIOD.

THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED ADVISORIES APPEAR TO MAKE SENSE FOR THE
REST OF TODAY/THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED
TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. THIS MAY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF OUR CURRENT ADVISORY FOR
THAT AREA.

THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL WAVE SHOULD AFFECT THE
NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES IN OKLAHOMA TOMORROW. SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT
WILL BE NEW WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION PRECLUDE ISSUING
THEM NOW.

BY TUESDAY...MOST OF THE WINTER WEATHER WILL TEMPORARILY MAKE WAY
FOR A SPRINGLIKE DAY...COMPLETE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF OKLAHOMA. AT THIS
TIME...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY.

IN KEEPING WITH THE THEME OF WILD EXTREMES OF WEATHER...ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND LATE TUESDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR OTHER FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. AND...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  19  32  30  44 /  30  60  40  40
HOBART OK         17  30  28  45 /  40  50  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  20  31  29  47 /  40  50  40  40
GAGE OK           14  30  26  39 /  40  70  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     17  30  28  41 /  20  80  60  40
DURANT OK         22  34  32  45 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-
     009>036-038-040>043.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ004>013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ037-
     039-044>048-050>052.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ084>090.

&&

$$

04/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 272056
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST ROUND OF THIS MULTI-PART WEATHER EVENT IS STARTING TO
WIND DOWN. THROUGH MIDNIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SHOULD BE
RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THINGS BEGIN TO TURN VERY COMPLICATED TOMORROW...AS
HIGHER TEMPERATURES START TO ADVANCE NORTH. THIS WILL...OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND...TURN THE SNOW TO SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN...AND THEN RAIN...WITH VARIOUS COMBINATIONS THEREOF DURING
THE TRANSITION PERIOD.

THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED ADVISORIES APPEAR TO MAKE SENSE FOR THE
REST OF TODAY/THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED
TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. THIS MAY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF OUR CURRENT ADVISORY FOR
THAT AREA.

THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL WAVE SHOULD AFFECT THE
NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES IN OKLAHOMA TOMORROW. SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT
WILL BE NEW WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION PRECLUDE ISSUING
THEM NOW.

BY TUESDAY...MOST OF THE WINTER WEATHER WILL TEMPORARILY MAKE WAY
FOR A SPRINGLIKE DAY...COMPLETE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF OKLAHOMA. AT THIS
TIME...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY.

IN KEEPING WITH THE THEME OF WILD EXTREMES OF WEATHER...ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND LATE TUESDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR OTHER FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. AND...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  19  32  30  44 /  30  60  40  40
HOBART OK         17  30  28  45 /  40  50  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  20  31  29  47 /  40  50  40  40
GAGE OK           14  30  26  39 /  40  70  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     17  30  28  41 /  20  80  60  40
DURANT OK         22  34  32  45 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-
     009>036-038-040>043.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ004>013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ037-
     039-044>048-050>052.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ084>090.

&&

$$

04/23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 271858
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1258 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL HAS SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND
THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTHWARD TO THE
KANSAS BORDER. THOUGH DRY AIR IS IN PLACE...LIGHT SNOW HAS QUICKLY
SATURATED THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO REACH THE SURFACE. THE LIGHT SNOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EVENING. 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE COUNTIES NOW UNDER
THE ADVISORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   20  32  30  41 /  20  90  60  50
FSM   22  34  32  44 /  20  60  30  60
MLC   21  33  32  48 /  30  60  40  50
BVO   18  31  29  42 /  20  90  80  60
FYV   17  32  29  47 /  20  70  50  60
BYV   17  29  30  43 /  20  60  50  60
MKO   21  31  30  43 /  20  80  40  50
MIO   18  32  29  40 /  20  80  80  60
F10   21  32  30  44 /  20  80  40  50
HHW   25  36  35  48 /  40  50  30  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ059-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ071-OKZ073-
     OKZ075.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 271858
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1258 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL HAS SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND
THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTHWARD TO THE
KANSAS BORDER. THOUGH DRY AIR IS IN PLACE...LIGHT SNOW HAS QUICKLY
SATURATED THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO REACH THE SURFACE. THE LIGHT SNOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EVENING. 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE COUNTIES NOW UNDER
THE ADVISORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   20  32  30  41 /  20  90  60  50
FSM   22  34  32  44 /  20  60  30  60
MLC   21  33  32  48 /  30  60  40  50
BVO   18  31  29  42 /  20  90  80  60
FYV   17  32  29  47 /  20  70  50  60
BYV   17  29  30  43 /  20  60  50  60
MKO   21  31  30  43 /  20  80  40  50
MIO   18  32  29  40 /  20  80  80  60
F10   21  32  30  44 /  20  80  40  50
HHW   25  36  35  48 /  40  50  30  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ059-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ071-OKZ073-
     OKZ075.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 271858
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1258 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL HAS SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND
THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTHWARD TO THE
KANSAS BORDER. THOUGH DRY AIR IS IN PLACE...LIGHT SNOW HAS QUICKLY
SATURATED THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO REACH THE SURFACE. THE LIGHT SNOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EVENING. 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE COUNTIES NOW UNDER
THE ADVISORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   20  32  30  41 /  20  90  60  50
FSM   22  34  32  44 /  20  60  30  60
MLC   21  33  32  48 /  30  60  40  50
BVO   18  31  29  42 /  20  90  80  60
FYV   17  32  29  47 /  20  70  50  60
BYV   17  29  30  43 /  20  60  50  60
MKO   21  31  30  43 /  20  80  40  50
MIO   18  32  29  40 /  20  80  80  60
F10   21  32  30  44 /  20  80  40  50
HHW   25  36  35  48 /  40  50  30  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ059-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ071-OKZ073-
     OKZ075.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 271858
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1258 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL HAS SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND
THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTHWARD TO THE
KANSAS BORDER. THOUGH DRY AIR IS IN PLACE...LIGHT SNOW HAS QUICKLY
SATURATED THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO REACH THE SURFACE. THE LIGHT SNOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EVENING. 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE COUNTIES NOW UNDER
THE ADVISORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   20  32  30  41 /  20  90  60  50
FSM   22  34  32  44 /  20  60  30  60
MLC   21  33  32  48 /  30  60  40  50
BVO   18  31  29  42 /  20  90  80  60
FYV   17  32  29  47 /  20  70  50  60
BYV   17  29  30  43 /  20  60  50  60
MKO   21  31  30  43 /  20  80  40  50
MIO   18  32  29  40 /  20  80  80  60
F10   21  32  30  44 /  20  80  40  50
HHW   25  36  35  48 /  40  50  30  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ059-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ071-OKZ073-
     OKZ075.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 271858
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1258 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL HAS SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND
THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTHWARD TO THE
KANSAS BORDER. THOUGH DRY AIR IS IN PLACE...LIGHT SNOW HAS QUICKLY
SATURATED THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO REACH THE SURFACE. THE LIGHT SNOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EVENING. 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE COUNTIES NOW UNDER
THE ADVISORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   20  32  30  41 /  20  90  60  50
FSM   22  34  32  44 /  20  60  30  60
MLC   21  33  32  48 /  30  60  40  50
BVO   18  31  29  42 /  20  90  80  60
FYV   17  32  29  47 /  20  70  50  60
BYV   17  29  30  43 /  20  60  50  60
MKO   21  31  30  43 /  20  80  40  50
MIO   18  32  29  40 /  20  80  80  60
F10   21  32  30  44 /  20  80  40  50
HHW   25  36  35  48 /  40  50  30  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ059-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ071-OKZ073-
     OKZ075.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 271858
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1258 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL HAS SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND
THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTHWARD TO THE
KANSAS BORDER. THOUGH DRY AIR IS IN PLACE...LIGHT SNOW HAS QUICKLY
SATURATED THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO REACH THE SURFACE. THE LIGHT SNOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EVENING. 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE COUNTIES NOW UNDER
THE ADVISORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   20  32  30  41 /  20  90  60  50
FSM   22  34  32  44 /  20  60  30  60
MLC   21  33  32  48 /  30  60  40  50
BVO   18  31  29  42 /  20  90  80  60
FYV   17  32  29  47 /  20  70  50  60
BYV   17  29  30  43 /  20  60  50  60
MKO   21  31  30  43 /  20  80  40  50
MIO   18  32  29  40 /  20  80  80  60
F10   21  32  30  44 /  20  80  40  50
HHW   25  36  35  48 /  40  50  30  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ059-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ071-OKZ073-
     OKZ075.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 271802
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1202 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLE TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS AT MLC

LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AND
SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO LOW
END MVFR WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH ANY MODERATE
SNOWFALL...MAINLY AFFECTING MLC/FSM. CEILINGS WILL STAY LOW
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. A SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY...AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z. AGAIN...VISIBILITIES COULD DROP
DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOWFALL...MAINLY AFFECTING
BVO/FYV/XNA/ROG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW HAD PUSHED INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A SMALL MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE...ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WERE
COMMON WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GREATER CHANCES STILL
LOOK TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE AROUND ONE INCH...WITH
POSSIBLY LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED
RIVER. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...THE SNOW WILL HAVE TO FIGHT
THROUGH DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE WHICH COULD HELP TO LIMIT OVERALL
ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THE DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BEING
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION TO A COUPLE TENTHS. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL LET THE
ADVISORY RUN AS IS. MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...THOUGH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CHANCES THEN RAMP UP AGAIN
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH
THE REGION.

THE COLD AIRMASS COMBINED WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO KEEP
TEMPS FROM WARMING ALL THAT MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH STILL POSSIBLE. MORNING
UPDATE WILL BE TO TWEAK HOURLY POP/TEMP GRIDS AND ALSO SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...16





000
FXUS64 KTSA 271802
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1202 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLE TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS AT MLC

LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AND
SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO LOW
END MVFR WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH ANY MODERATE
SNOWFALL...MAINLY AFFECTING MLC/FSM. CEILINGS WILL STAY LOW
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. A SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY...AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z. AGAIN...VISIBILITIES COULD DROP
DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOWFALL...MAINLY AFFECTING
BVO/FYV/XNA/ROG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW HAD PUSHED INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A SMALL MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE...ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WERE
COMMON WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GREATER CHANCES STILL
LOOK TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE AROUND ONE INCH...WITH
POSSIBLY LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED
RIVER. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...THE SNOW WILL HAVE TO FIGHT
THROUGH DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE WHICH COULD HELP TO LIMIT OVERALL
ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THE DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BEING
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION TO A COUPLE TENTHS. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL LET THE
ADVISORY RUN AS IS. MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...THOUGH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CHANCES THEN RAMP UP AGAIN
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH
THE REGION.

THE COLD AIRMASS COMBINED WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO KEEP
TEMPS FROM WARMING ALL THAT MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH STILL POSSIBLE. MORNING
UPDATE WILL BE TO TWEAK HOURLY POP/TEMP GRIDS AND ALSO SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...16






000
FXUS64 KTSA 271802
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1202 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLE TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS AT MLC

LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AND
SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO LOW
END MVFR WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH ANY MODERATE
SNOWFALL...MAINLY AFFECTING MLC/FSM. CEILINGS WILL STAY LOW
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. A SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY...AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z. AGAIN...VISIBILITIES COULD DROP
DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOWFALL...MAINLY AFFECTING
BVO/FYV/XNA/ROG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW HAD PUSHED INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A SMALL MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE...ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WERE
COMMON WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GREATER CHANCES STILL
LOOK TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE AROUND ONE INCH...WITH
POSSIBLY LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED
RIVER. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...THE SNOW WILL HAVE TO FIGHT
THROUGH DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE WHICH COULD HELP TO LIMIT OVERALL
ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THE DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BEING
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION TO A COUPLE TENTHS. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL LET THE
ADVISORY RUN AS IS. MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...THOUGH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CHANCES THEN RAMP UP AGAIN
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH
THE REGION.

THE COLD AIRMASS COMBINED WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO KEEP
TEMPS FROM WARMING ALL THAT MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH STILL POSSIBLE. MORNING
UPDATE WILL BE TO TWEAK HOURLY POP/TEMP GRIDS AND ALSO SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...16





000
FXUS64 KTSA 271802
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1202 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLE TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS AT MLC

LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AND
SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO LOW
END MVFR WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH ANY MODERATE
SNOWFALL...MAINLY AFFECTING MLC/FSM. CEILINGS WILL STAY LOW
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. A SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY...AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z. AGAIN...VISIBILITIES COULD DROP
DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOWFALL...MAINLY AFFECTING
BVO/FYV/XNA/ROG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW HAD PUSHED INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A SMALL MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE...ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WERE
COMMON WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GREATER CHANCES STILL
LOOK TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE AROUND ONE INCH...WITH
POSSIBLY LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED
RIVER. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...THE SNOW WILL HAVE TO FIGHT
THROUGH DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE WHICH COULD HELP TO LIMIT OVERALL
ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THE DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BEING
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION TO A COUPLE TENTHS. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL LET THE
ADVISORY RUN AS IS. MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...THOUGH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CHANCES THEN RAMP UP AGAIN
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH
THE REGION.

THE COLD AIRMASS COMBINED WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO KEEP
TEMPS FROM WARMING ALL THAT MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH STILL POSSIBLE. MORNING
UPDATE WILL BE TO TWEAK HOURLY POP/TEMP GRIDS AND ALSO SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...16






000
FXUS64 KOUN 271742
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1142 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

&&

.AVIATION...
ONGOING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SNOW TO END LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES. ADDITIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AFTER 10Z. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE MORNING. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF SNOW. BRIEF
PERIODS OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN A HALF A MILE ARE POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM KGAG TO KPNC.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX...

DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE... DECENT BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG A
NARROW GRADIENT OF STOUT MID- LEVEL FORCING ALONG/NEAR THE RED
RIVER IN SWRN OK/WRN N TX. REPORTS THROUGH 930AM OF ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WITHIN THIS BANDING. GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE
BAND ON KFDR... EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 1 INCH...
WITH TOTALS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SWRN OK AND WRN N TX. PROFILES CONTINUE TO MOISTEN
ACROSS CENTRAL OK... BUT BEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN ALONG SRN
OK/NRN TX. HOWEVER... EXPECT SOME LIGHT... MAYBE SOME MODERATE
BURSTS OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL OK DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z... BUT STILL
ONLY EXPECT A DUSTING TO 1 INCH FOR OKC METRO AND LOCATIONS ACROSS
NRN OK.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
SNOW WILL INCREASE WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE WAVE
PRODUCING THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
MID-DAY. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. LATE TONIGHT LIGHT SNOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND LOWER
CEILINGS. WINDS WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST OR EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IS APPROACHING WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
SHORTLY. THE MAIN ENERGY OF THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER AREA TODAY. AN ADVISORY FOR UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS
EFFECTIVE FOR THIS AREA WITH PART OF NORTH TEXAS LIKELY TO HAVE
CLOSER TO THIS HIGHER AMOUNT. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, A SECOND UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL STILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD AND MOIST FOR SNOW HERE. IT
APPEARS THAT HEAVIER SNOW WILL REMAIN IN KANSAS WITH UP TO A
COUPLE INCHES LIKELY IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BEFORE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER
IS FORECAST BY SEVERAL MODELS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WOULD ALLOW WEAKER WAVES
THAT MAY PASS OVER OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING TO
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES EXCEED FREEZING LATER SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER A WARMER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A WEAK FRONT MONDAY, STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND
MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND GIVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE UPPER TROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW BEFORE THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST OF OKLAHOMA LATER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  23  19  33  30 /  90  30  60  40
HOBART OK         23  18  31  28 / 100  30  50  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  25  23  34  32 / 100  70  50  40
GAGE OK           21  14  31  25 / 100  40  50  30
PONCA CITY OK     23  17  32  27 / 100  20  80  50
DURANT OK         27  24  35  33 / 100  70  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-
     009>036-038-040-041.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ037-
     039-044>046-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ047-
     048-051-052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ042-
     043.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ084>090.

&&

$$

04/23/10




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271742
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1142 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

&&

.AVIATION...
ONGOING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SNOW TO END LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES. ADDITIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AFTER 10Z. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE MORNING. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF SNOW. BRIEF
PERIODS OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN A HALF A MILE ARE POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM KGAG TO KPNC.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX...

DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE... DECENT BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG A
NARROW GRADIENT OF STOUT MID- LEVEL FORCING ALONG/NEAR THE RED
RIVER IN SWRN OK/WRN N TX. REPORTS THROUGH 930AM OF ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WITHIN THIS BANDING. GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE
BAND ON KFDR... EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 1 INCH...
WITH TOTALS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SWRN OK AND WRN N TX. PROFILES CONTINUE TO MOISTEN
ACROSS CENTRAL OK... BUT BEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN ALONG SRN
OK/NRN TX. HOWEVER... EXPECT SOME LIGHT... MAYBE SOME MODERATE
BURSTS OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL OK DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z... BUT STILL
ONLY EXPECT A DUSTING TO 1 INCH FOR OKC METRO AND LOCATIONS ACROSS
NRN OK.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
SNOW WILL INCREASE WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE WAVE
PRODUCING THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
MID-DAY. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. LATE TONIGHT LIGHT SNOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND LOWER
CEILINGS. WINDS WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST OR EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IS APPROACHING WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
SHORTLY. THE MAIN ENERGY OF THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER AREA TODAY. AN ADVISORY FOR UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS
EFFECTIVE FOR THIS AREA WITH PART OF NORTH TEXAS LIKELY TO HAVE
CLOSER TO THIS HIGHER AMOUNT. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, A SECOND UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL STILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD AND MOIST FOR SNOW HERE. IT
APPEARS THAT HEAVIER SNOW WILL REMAIN IN KANSAS WITH UP TO A
COUPLE INCHES LIKELY IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BEFORE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER
IS FORECAST BY SEVERAL MODELS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WOULD ALLOW WEAKER WAVES
THAT MAY PASS OVER OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING TO
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES EXCEED FREEZING LATER SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER A WARMER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A WEAK FRONT MONDAY, STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND
MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND GIVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE UPPER TROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW BEFORE THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST OF OKLAHOMA LATER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  23  19  33  30 /  90  30  60  40
HOBART OK         23  18  31  28 / 100  30  50  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  25  23  34  32 / 100  70  50  40
GAGE OK           21  14  31  25 / 100  40  50  30
PONCA CITY OK     23  17  32  27 / 100  20  80  50
DURANT OK         27  24  35  33 / 100  70  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-
     009>036-038-040-041.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ037-
     039-044>046-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ047-
     048-051-052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ042-
     043.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ084>090.

&&

$$

04/23/10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 271742
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1142 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

&&

.AVIATION...
ONGOING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SNOW TO END LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES. ADDITIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AFTER 10Z. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE MORNING. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF SNOW. BRIEF
PERIODS OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN A HALF A MILE ARE POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM KGAG TO KPNC.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX...

DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE... DECENT BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG A
NARROW GRADIENT OF STOUT MID- LEVEL FORCING ALONG/NEAR THE RED
RIVER IN SWRN OK/WRN N TX. REPORTS THROUGH 930AM OF ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WITHIN THIS BANDING. GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE
BAND ON KFDR... EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 1 INCH...
WITH TOTALS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SWRN OK AND WRN N TX. PROFILES CONTINUE TO MOISTEN
ACROSS CENTRAL OK... BUT BEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN ALONG SRN
OK/NRN TX. HOWEVER... EXPECT SOME LIGHT... MAYBE SOME MODERATE
BURSTS OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL OK DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z... BUT STILL
ONLY EXPECT A DUSTING TO 1 INCH FOR OKC METRO AND LOCATIONS ACROSS
NRN OK.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
SNOW WILL INCREASE WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE WAVE
PRODUCING THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
MID-DAY. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. LATE TONIGHT LIGHT SNOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND LOWER
CEILINGS. WINDS WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST OR EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IS APPROACHING WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
SHORTLY. THE MAIN ENERGY OF THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER AREA TODAY. AN ADVISORY FOR UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS
EFFECTIVE FOR THIS AREA WITH PART OF NORTH TEXAS LIKELY TO HAVE
CLOSER TO THIS HIGHER AMOUNT. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, A SECOND UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL STILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD AND MOIST FOR SNOW HERE. IT
APPEARS THAT HEAVIER SNOW WILL REMAIN IN KANSAS WITH UP TO A
COUPLE INCHES LIKELY IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BEFORE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER
IS FORECAST BY SEVERAL MODELS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WOULD ALLOW WEAKER WAVES
THAT MAY PASS OVER OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING TO
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES EXCEED FREEZING LATER SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER A WARMER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A WEAK FRONT MONDAY, STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND
MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND GIVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE UPPER TROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW BEFORE THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST OF OKLAHOMA LATER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  23  19  33  30 /  90  30  60  40
HOBART OK         23  18  31  28 / 100  30  50  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  25  23  34  32 / 100  70  50  40
GAGE OK           21  14  31  25 / 100  40  50  30
PONCA CITY OK     23  17  32  27 / 100  20  80  50
DURANT OK         27  24  35  33 / 100  70  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-
     009>036-038-040-041.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ037-
     039-044>046-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ047-
     048-051-052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ042-
     043.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ084>090.

&&

$$

04/23/10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 271742
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1142 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

&&

.AVIATION...
ONGOING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SNOW TO END LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES. ADDITIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AFTER 10Z. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE MORNING. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF SNOW. BRIEF
PERIODS OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN A HALF A MILE ARE POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM KGAG TO KPNC.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX...

DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE... DECENT BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG A
NARROW GRADIENT OF STOUT MID- LEVEL FORCING ALONG/NEAR THE RED
RIVER IN SWRN OK/WRN N TX. REPORTS THROUGH 930AM OF ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WITHIN THIS BANDING. GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE
BAND ON KFDR... EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 1 INCH...
WITH TOTALS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SWRN OK AND WRN N TX. PROFILES CONTINUE TO MOISTEN
ACROSS CENTRAL OK... BUT BEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN ALONG SRN
OK/NRN TX. HOWEVER... EXPECT SOME LIGHT... MAYBE SOME MODERATE
BURSTS OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL OK DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z... BUT STILL
ONLY EXPECT A DUSTING TO 1 INCH FOR OKC METRO AND LOCATIONS ACROSS
NRN OK.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
SNOW WILL INCREASE WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE WAVE
PRODUCING THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
MID-DAY. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. LATE TONIGHT LIGHT SNOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND LOWER
CEILINGS. WINDS WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST OR EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IS APPROACHING WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
SHORTLY. THE MAIN ENERGY OF THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER AREA TODAY. AN ADVISORY FOR UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS
EFFECTIVE FOR THIS AREA WITH PART OF NORTH TEXAS LIKELY TO HAVE
CLOSER TO THIS HIGHER AMOUNT. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, A SECOND UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL STILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD AND MOIST FOR SNOW HERE. IT
APPEARS THAT HEAVIER SNOW WILL REMAIN IN KANSAS WITH UP TO A
COUPLE INCHES LIKELY IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BEFORE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER
IS FORECAST BY SEVERAL MODELS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WOULD ALLOW WEAKER WAVES
THAT MAY PASS OVER OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING TO
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES EXCEED FREEZING LATER SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER A WARMER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A WEAK FRONT MONDAY, STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND
MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND GIVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE UPPER TROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW BEFORE THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST OF OKLAHOMA LATER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  23  19  33  30 /  90  30  60  40
HOBART OK         23  18  31  28 / 100  30  50  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  25  23  34  32 / 100  70  50  40
GAGE OK           21  14  31  25 / 100  40  50  30
PONCA CITY OK     23  17  32  27 / 100  20  80  50
DURANT OK         27  24  35  33 / 100  70  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-
     009>036-038-040-041.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ037-
     039-044>046-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ047-
     048-051-052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ042-
     043.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ084>090.

&&

$$

04/23/10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 271742
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1142 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

&&

.AVIATION...
ONGOING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SNOW TO END LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES. ADDITIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AFTER 10Z. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE MORNING. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF SNOW. BRIEF
PERIODS OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN A HALF A MILE ARE POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM KGAG TO KPNC.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX...

DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE... DECENT BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG A
NARROW GRADIENT OF STOUT MID- LEVEL FORCING ALONG/NEAR THE RED
RIVER IN SWRN OK/WRN N TX. REPORTS THROUGH 930AM OF ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WITHIN THIS BANDING. GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE
BAND ON KFDR... EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 1 INCH...
WITH TOTALS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SWRN OK AND WRN N TX. PROFILES CONTINUE TO MOISTEN
ACROSS CENTRAL OK... BUT BEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN ALONG SRN
OK/NRN TX. HOWEVER... EXPECT SOME LIGHT... MAYBE SOME MODERATE
BURSTS OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL OK DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z... BUT STILL
ONLY EXPECT A DUSTING TO 1 INCH FOR OKC METRO AND LOCATIONS ACROSS
NRN OK.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
SNOW WILL INCREASE WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE WAVE
PRODUCING THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
MID-DAY. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. LATE TONIGHT LIGHT SNOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND LOWER
CEILINGS. WINDS WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST OR EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IS APPROACHING WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
SHORTLY. THE MAIN ENERGY OF THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER AREA TODAY. AN ADVISORY FOR UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS
EFFECTIVE FOR THIS AREA WITH PART OF NORTH TEXAS LIKELY TO HAVE
CLOSER TO THIS HIGHER AMOUNT. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, A SECOND UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL STILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD AND MOIST FOR SNOW HERE. IT
APPEARS THAT HEAVIER SNOW WILL REMAIN IN KANSAS WITH UP TO A
COUPLE INCHES LIKELY IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BEFORE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER
IS FORECAST BY SEVERAL MODELS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WOULD ALLOW WEAKER WAVES
THAT MAY PASS OVER OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING TO
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES EXCEED FREEZING LATER SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER A WARMER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A WEAK FRONT MONDAY, STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND
MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND GIVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE UPPER TROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW BEFORE THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST OF OKLAHOMA LATER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  23  19  33  30 /  90  30  60  40
HOBART OK         23  18  31  28 / 100  30  50  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  25  23  34  32 / 100  70  50  40
GAGE OK           21  14  31  25 / 100  40  50  30
PONCA CITY OK     23  17  32  27 / 100  20  80  50
DURANT OK         27  24  35  33 / 100  70  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-
     009>036-038-040-041.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ037-
     039-044>046-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ047-
     048-051-052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ042-
     043.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ084>090.

&&

$$

04/23/10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 271742
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1142 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

&&

.AVIATION...
ONGOING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SNOW TO END LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES. ADDITIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AFTER 10Z. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE MORNING. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF SNOW. BRIEF
PERIODS OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN A HALF A MILE ARE POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM KGAG TO KPNC.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX...

DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE... DECENT BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG A
NARROW GRADIENT OF STOUT MID- LEVEL FORCING ALONG/NEAR THE RED
RIVER IN SWRN OK/WRN N TX. REPORTS THROUGH 930AM OF ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WITHIN THIS BANDING. GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE
BAND ON KFDR... EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 1 INCH...
WITH TOTALS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SWRN OK AND WRN N TX. PROFILES CONTINUE TO MOISTEN
ACROSS CENTRAL OK... BUT BEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN ALONG SRN
OK/NRN TX. HOWEVER... EXPECT SOME LIGHT... MAYBE SOME MODERATE
BURSTS OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL OK DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z... BUT STILL
ONLY EXPECT A DUSTING TO 1 INCH FOR OKC METRO AND LOCATIONS ACROSS
NRN OK.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
SNOW WILL INCREASE WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE WAVE
PRODUCING THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
MID-DAY. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. LATE TONIGHT LIGHT SNOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND LOWER
CEILINGS. WINDS WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST OR EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IS APPROACHING WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
SHORTLY. THE MAIN ENERGY OF THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER AREA TODAY. AN ADVISORY FOR UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS
EFFECTIVE FOR THIS AREA WITH PART OF NORTH TEXAS LIKELY TO HAVE
CLOSER TO THIS HIGHER AMOUNT. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, A SECOND UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL STILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD AND MOIST FOR SNOW HERE. IT
APPEARS THAT HEAVIER SNOW WILL REMAIN IN KANSAS WITH UP TO A
COUPLE INCHES LIKELY IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BEFORE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER
IS FORECAST BY SEVERAL MODELS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WOULD ALLOW WEAKER WAVES
THAT MAY PASS OVER OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING TO
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES EXCEED FREEZING LATER SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER A WARMER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A WEAK FRONT MONDAY, STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND
MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND GIVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE UPPER TROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW BEFORE THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST OF OKLAHOMA LATER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  23  19  33  30 /  90  30  60  40
HOBART OK         23  18  31  28 / 100  30  50  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  25  23  34  32 / 100  70  50  40
GAGE OK           21  14  31  25 / 100  40  50  30
PONCA CITY OK     23  17  32  27 / 100  20  80  50
DURANT OK         27  24  35  33 / 100  70  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-
     009>036-038-040-041.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ037-
     039-044>046-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ047-
     048-051-052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ042-
     043.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ084>090.

&&

$$

04/23/10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 271653
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1053 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW HAD PUSHED INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A SMALL MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE...ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WERE
COMMON WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GREATER CHANCES STILL
LOOK TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE AROUND ONE INCH...WITH
POSSIBLY LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED
RIVER. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...THE SNOW WILL HAVE TO FIGHT
THROUGH DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE WHICH COULD HELP TO LIMIT OVERALL
ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THE DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BEING
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION TO A COUPLE TENTHS. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL LET THE
ADVISORY RUN AS IS. MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...THOUGH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CHANCES THEN RAMP UP AGAIN
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH
THE REGION.

THE COLD AIRMASS COMBINED WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO KEEP
TEMPS FROM WARMING ALL THAT MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH STILL POSSIBLE. MORNING
UPDATE WILL BE TO TWEAK HOURLY POP/TEMP GRIDS AND ALSO SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  20  32  30 /  40  30  90  40
FSM   29  22  34  32 /  30  30  60  40
MLC   28  21  33  32 /  60  30  60  40
BVO   24  18  31  29 /  20  30  90  60
FYV   24  17  32  29 /  20  30  70  50
BYV   22  17  29  29 /  20  30  60  50
MKO   27  21  31  30 /  40  30  80  40
MIO   25  18  32  30 /  20  30  80  70
F10   27  21  32  31 /  50  30  80  40
HHW   30  25  36  35 /  60  50  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16/20
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 271653
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1053 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW HAD PUSHED INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A SMALL MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE...ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WERE
COMMON WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GREATER CHANCES STILL
LOOK TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE AROUND ONE INCH...WITH
POSSIBLY LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED
RIVER. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...THE SNOW WILL HAVE TO FIGHT
THROUGH DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE WHICH COULD HELP TO LIMIT OVERALL
ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THE DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BEING
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION TO A COUPLE TENTHS. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL LET THE
ADVISORY RUN AS IS. MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...THOUGH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CHANCES THEN RAMP UP AGAIN
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH
THE REGION.

THE COLD AIRMASS COMBINED WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO KEEP
TEMPS FROM WARMING ALL THAT MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH STILL POSSIBLE. MORNING
UPDATE WILL BE TO TWEAK HOURLY POP/TEMP GRIDS AND ALSO SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  20  32  30 /  40  30  90  40
FSM   29  22  34  32 /  30  30  60  40
MLC   28  21  33  32 /  60  30  60  40
BVO   24  18  31  29 /  20  30  90  60
FYV   24  17  32  29 /  20  30  70  50
BYV   22  17  29  29 /  20  30  60  50
MKO   27  21  31  30 /  40  30  80  40
MIO   25  18  32  30 /  20  30  80  70
F10   27  21  32  31 /  50  30  80  40
HHW   30  25  36  35 /  60  50  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16/20
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 271653
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1053 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW HAD PUSHED INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A SMALL MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE...ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WERE
COMMON WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GREATER CHANCES STILL
LOOK TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE AROUND ONE INCH...WITH
POSSIBLY LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED
RIVER. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...THE SNOW WILL HAVE TO FIGHT
THROUGH DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE WHICH COULD HELP TO LIMIT OVERALL
ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THE DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BEING
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION TO A COUPLE TENTHS. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL LET THE
ADVISORY RUN AS IS. MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...THOUGH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CHANCES THEN RAMP UP AGAIN
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH
THE REGION.

THE COLD AIRMASS COMBINED WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO KEEP
TEMPS FROM WARMING ALL THAT MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH STILL POSSIBLE. MORNING
UPDATE WILL BE TO TWEAK HOURLY POP/TEMP GRIDS AND ALSO SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  20  32  30 /  40  30  90  40
FSM   29  22  34  32 /  30  30  60  40
MLC   28  21  33  32 /  60  30  60  40
BVO   24  18  31  29 /  20  30  90  60
FYV   24  17  32  29 /  20  30  70  50
BYV   22  17  29  29 /  20  30  60  50
MKO   27  21  31  30 /  40  30  80  40
MIO   25  18  32  30 /  20  30  80  70
F10   27  21  32  31 /  50  30  80  40
HHW   30  25  36  35 /  60  50  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16/20
LONG TERM....12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 271653
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1053 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW HAD PUSHED INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A SMALL MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE...ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WERE
COMMON WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GREATER CHANCES STILL
LOOK TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE AROUND ONE INCH...WITH
POSSIBLY LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED
RIVER. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...THE SNOW WILL HAVE TO FIGHT
THROUGH DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE WHICH COULD HELP TO LIMIT OVERALL
ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THE DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BEING
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION TO A COUPLE TENTHS. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL LET THE
ADVISORY RUN AS IS. MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...THOUGH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CHANCES THEN RAMP UP AGAIN
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH
THE REGION.

THE COLD AIRMASS COMBINED WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO KEEP
TEMPS FROM WARMING ALL THAT MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH STILL POSSIBLE. MORNING
UPDATE WILL BE TO TWEAK HOURLY POP/TEMP GRIDS AND ALSO SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  20  32  30 /  40  30  90  40
FSM   29  22  34  32 /  30  30  60  40
MLC   28  21  33  32 /  60  30  60  40
BVO   24  18  31  29 /  20  30  90  60
FYV   24  17  32  29 /  20  30  70  50
BYV   22  17  29  29 /  20  30  60  50
MKO   27  21  31  30 /  40  30  80  40
MIO   25  18  32  30 /  20  30  80  70
F10   27  21  32  31 /  50  30  80  40
HHW   30  25  36  35 /  60  50  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16/20
LONG TERM....12





000
FXUS64 KOUN 271547
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
947 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE... DECENT BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG A
NARROW GRADIENT OF STOUT MID- LEVEL FORCING ALONG/NEAR THE RED
RIVER IN SWRN OK/WRN N TX. REPORTS THROUGH 930AM OF ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WITHIN THIS BANDING. GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE
BAND ON KFDR... EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 1 INCH...
WITH TOTALS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SWRN OK AND WRN N TX. PROFILES CONTINUE TO MOISTEN
ACROSS CENTRAL OK... BUT BEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN ALONG SRN
OK/NRN TX. HOWEVER... EXPECT SOME LIGHT... MAYBE SOME MODERATE
BURSTS OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL OK DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z... BUT STILL
ONLY EXPECT A DUSTING TO 1 INCH FOR OKC METRO AND LOCATIONS ACROSS
NRN OK.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
SNOW WILL INCREASE WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE WAVE
PRODUCING THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
MID-DAY. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. LATE TONIGHT LIGHT SNOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND LOWER
CEILINGS. WINDS WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST OR EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IS APPROACHING WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
SHORTLY. THE MAIN ENERGY OF THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER AREA TODAY. AN ADVISORY FOR UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS
EFFECTIVE FOR THIS AREA WITH PART OF NORTH TEXAS LIKELY TO HAVE
CLOSER TO THIS HIGHER AMOUNT. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, A SECOND UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL STILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD AND MOIST FOR SNOW HERE. IT
APPEARS THAT HEAVIER SNOW WILL REMAIN IN KANSAS WITH UP TO A
COUPLE INCHES LIKELY IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BEFORE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER
IS FORECAST BY SEVERAL MODELS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WOULD ALLOW WEAKER WAVES
THAT MAY PASS OVER OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING TO
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES EXCEED FREEZING LATER SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER A WARMER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A WEAK FRONT MONDAY, STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND
MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND GIVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE UPPER TROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW BEFORE THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST OF OKLAHOMA LATER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  19  33  30  43 /  30  60  40  40
HOBART OK         18  31  28  43 /  30  50  40  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  23  34  32  49 /  70  50  40  40
GAGE OK           14  31  25  40 /  40  50  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     17  32  27  42 /  20  80  50  40
DURANT OK         24  35  33  47 /  70  40  40  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-
     009-010-014>016-021>023-027-028-033>036-038-040-041.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ037-
     039-044>046-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ047-
     048-051-052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ042-
     043.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ084>090.

&&

$$

04/23/10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 271547
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
947 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE... DECENT BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG A
NARROW GRADIENT OF STOUT MID- LEVEL FORCING ALONG/NEAR THE RED
RIVER IN SWRN OK/WRN N TX. REPORTS THROUGH 930AM OF ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WITHIN THIS BANDING. GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE
BAND ON KFDR... EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 1 INCH...
WITH TOTALS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SWRN OK AND WRN N TX. PROFILES CONTINUE TO MOISTEN
ACROSS CENTRAL OK... BUT BEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN ALONG SRN
OK/NRN TX. HOWEVER... EXPECT SOME LIGHT... MAYBE SOME MODERATE
BURSTS OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL OK DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z... BUT STILL
ONLY EXPECT A DUSTING TO 1 INCH FOR OKC METRO AND LOCATIONS ACROSS
NRN OK.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
SNOW WILL INCREASE WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE WAVE
PRODUCING THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
MID-DAY. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. LATE TONIGHT LIGHT SNOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND LOWER
CEILINGS. WINDS WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST OR EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IS APPROACHING WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
SHORTLY. THE MAIN ENERGY OF THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER AREA TODAY. AN ADVISORY FOR UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS
EFFECTIVE FOR THIS AREA WITH PART OF NORTH TEXAS LIKELY TO HAVE
CLOSER TO THIS HIGHER AMOUNT. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, A SECOND UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL STILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD AND MOIST FOR SNOW HERE. IT
APPEARS THAT HEAVIER SNOW WILL REMAIN IN KANSAS WITH UP TO A
COUPLE INCHES LIKELY IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BEFORE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER
IS FORECAST BY SEVERAL MODELS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WOULD ALLOW WEAKER WAVES
THAT MAY PASS OVER OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING TO
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES EXCEED FREEZING LATER SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER A WARMER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A WEAK FRONT MONDAY, STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND
MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND GIVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE UPPER TROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW BEFORE THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST OF OKLAHOMA LATER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  19  33  30  43 /  30  60  40  40
HOBART OK         18  31  28  43 /  30  50  40  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  23  34  32  49 /  70  50  40  40
GAGE OK           14  31  25  40 /  40  50  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     17  32  27  42 /  20  80  50  40
DURANT OK         24  35  33  47 /  70  40  40  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-
     009-010-014>016-021>023-027-028-033>036-038-040-041.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ037-
     039-044>046-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ047-
     048-051-052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ042-
     043.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ084>090.

&&

$$

04/23/10




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271152
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
552 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
SNOW WILL INCREASE WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE WAVE
PRODUCING THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
MID-DAY. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. LATE TONIGHT LIGHT SNOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH REDUCED VISITLITY AND LOWER
CEILINGS. WINDS WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST OR EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IS APPROACHING WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
SHORTLY. THE MAIN ENERGY OF THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER AREA TODAY. AN ADVISORY FOR UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS
EFFECTIVE FOR THIS AREA WITH PART OF NORTH TEXAS LIKELY TO HAVE
CLOSER TO THIS HIGHER AMOUNT. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, A SECOND UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL STILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD AND MOIST FOR SNOW HERE. IT
APPEARS THAT HEAVIER SNOW WILL REMAIN IN KANSAS WITH UP TO A
COUPLE INCHES LIKELY IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BEFORE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER
IS FORECAST BY SEVERAL MODELS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WOULD ALLOW WEAKER WAVES
THAT MAY PASS OVER OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING TO
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES EXCEED FREEZING LATER SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER A WARMER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A WEAK FRONT MONDAY, STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND
MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND GIVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE UPPER TROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW BEFORE THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST OF OKLAHOMA LATER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  19  33  30  43 /  30  60  40  40
HOBART OK         18  31  28  43 /  30  50  40  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  23  34  32  49 /  70  50  40  40
GAGE OK           14  31  25  40 /  40  50  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     17  32  27  42 /  20  80  50  40
DURANT OK         24  35  33  47 /  70  40  40  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-
     009-010-014>016-021>023-027-028-033>036-038-040-041.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ037-
     039-044>046-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
     FOR OKZ047-048-051-052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ042-043.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ084>090.

&&

$$

26/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271152
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
552 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
SNOW WILL INCREASE WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE WAVE
PRODUCING THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
MID-DAY. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. LATE TONIGHT LIGHT SNOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH REDUCED VISITLITY AND LOWER
CEILINGS. WINDS WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST OR EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IS APPROACHING WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
SHORTLY. THE MAIN ENERGY OF THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER AREA TODAY. AN ADVISORY FOR UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS
EFFECTIVE FOR THIS AREA WITH PART OF NORTH TEXAS LIKELY TO HAVE
CLOSER TO THIS HIGHER AMOUNT. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, A SECOND UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL STILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD AND MOIST FOR SNOW HERE. IT
APPEARS THAT HEAVIER SNOW WILL REMAIN IN KANSAS WITH UP TO A
COUPLE INCHES LIKELY IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BEFORE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER
IS FORECAST BY SEVERAL MODELS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WOULD ALLOW WEAKER WAVES
THAT MAY PASS OVER OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING TO
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES EXCEED FREEZING LATER SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER A WARMER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A WEAK FRONT MONDAY, STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND
MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND GIVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE UPPER TROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW BEFORE THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST OF OKLAHOMA LATER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  19  33  30  43 /  30  60  40  40
HOBART OK         18  31  28  43 /  30  50  40  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  23  34  32  49 /  70  50  40  40
GAGE OK           14  31  25  40 /  40  50  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     17  32  27  42 /  20  80  50  40
DURANT OK         24  35  33  47 /  70  40  40  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-
     009-010-014>016-021>023-027-028-033>036-038-040-041.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ037-
     039-044>046-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
     FOR OKZ047-048-051-052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ042-043.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ084>090.

&&

$$

26/09/09



000
FXUS64 KTSA 271126
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
526 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL  CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING. AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK MAINLY AFTER
18Z...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING FOR KMLC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BUSY UPPER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL SLOWLY ERODE WITH
TIME...AND WINTRY PRECIP TYPES WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO LIQUID
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY IN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WILL OFFER LIGHT SNOW CHANCES FOR
MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SE
OK...WITH 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW
COUNTIES. HAVE ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR THOSE COUNTIES EFFECTIVE FROM
NOON TO MIDNIGHT. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...PRECIP CHANCES WILL
REMAIN ONGOING..ESPECIALLY BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY IN RESPONSE TO THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM
COMING ASHORE TO THE CA COAST. FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND WILL MAINLY BE NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN AS WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ENSUE. EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY...ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY AS SURFACE
FEATURES RESPOND TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL LEAVE A
MENTION OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NE OK SHOULD ANY
LINGERING PRECIP INTERACT WITH THE COLDER AIR. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES THROUGH...A PERIOD OF SETTLED WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  21  32  30 /  20  10  60  40
FSM   30  22  36  33 /  20  10  40  40
MLC   28  22  36  33 /  50  20  40  40
BVO   25  17  31  28 /  20  10  80  60
FYV   25  18  32  32 /  20  10  50  50
BYV   23  17  33  30 /  20  10  50  50
MKO   28  21  34  32 /  20  10  50  40
MIO   26  17  33  30 /  20  10  80  70
F10   27  21  34  32 /  30  20  50  40
HHW   30  23  36  35 /  60  40  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ053.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18





000
FXUS64 KOUN 271003
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
403 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IS APPROACHING WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
SHORTLY. THE MAIN ENERGY OF THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER AREA TODAY. AN ADVISORY FOR UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS
EFFECTIVE FOR THIS AREA WITH PART OF NORTH TEXAS LIKELY TO HAVE
CLOSER TO THIS HIGHER AMOUNT. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, A SECOND UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL STILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD AND MOIST FOR SNOW HERE. IT
APPEARS THAT HEAVIER SNOW WILL REMAIN IN KANSAS WITH UP TO A
COUPLE INCHES LIKELY IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BEFORE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER
IS FORECAST BY SEVERAL MODELS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WOULD ALLOW WEAKER WAVES
THAT MAY PASS OVER OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING TO
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES EXCEED FREEZING LATER SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER A WARMER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A WEAK FRONT MONDAY, STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND
MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND GIVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE UPPER TROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW BEFORE THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST OF OKLAHOMA LATER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  27  19  33  30 /  50  30  60  40
HOBART OK         24  18  31  28 /  80  30  50  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  26  23  34  32 /  90  70  50  40
GAGE OK           22  14  31  25 /  70  40  50  30
PONCA CITY OK     26  17  32  27 /  20  20  80  50
DURANT OK         28  24  35  33 /  70  70  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-010-014>016-021>023-027-028-033>036-
     038-040-041.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR OKZ037-039-044>046-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
     FOR OKZ047-048-051-052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ042-043.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ083.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR TXZ084>090.

&&

$$

26/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271003
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
403 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IS APPROACHING WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
SHORTLY. THE MAIN ENERGY OF THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER AREA TODAY. AN ADVISORY FOR UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS
EFFECTIVE FOR THIS AREA WITH PART OF NORTH TEXAS LIKELY TO HAVE
CLOSER TO THIS HIGHER AMOUNT. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, A SECOND UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL STILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD AND MOIST FOR SNOW HERE. IT
APPEARS THAT HEAVIER SNOW WILL REMAIN IN KANSAS WITH UP TO A
COUPLE INCHES LIKELY IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BEFORE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER
IS FORECAST BY SEVERAL MODELS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WOULD ALLOW WEAKER WAVES
THAT MAY PASS OVER OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING TO
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES EXCEED FREEZING LATER SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER A WARMER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A WEAK FRONT MONDAY, STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND
MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND GIVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE UPPER TROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW BEFORE THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST OF OKLAHOMA LATER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  27  19  33  30 /  50  30  60  40
HOBART OK         24  18  31  28 /  80  30  50  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  26  23  34  32 /  90  70  50  40
GAGE OK           22  14  31  25 /  70  40  50  30
PONCA CITY OK     26  17  32  27 /  20  20  80  50
DURANT OK         28  24  35  33 /  70  70  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-010-014>016-021>023-027-028-033>036-
     038-040-041.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR OKZ037-039-044>046-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
     FOR OKZ047-048-051-052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ042-043.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ083.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR TXZ084>090.

&&

$$

26/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271003
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
403 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IS APPROACHING WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
SHORTLY. THE MAIN ENERGY OF THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER AREA TODAY. AN ADVISORY FOR UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS
EFFECTIVE FOR THIS AREA WITH PART OF NORTH TEXAS LIKELY TO HAVE
CLOSER TO THIS HIGHER AMOUNT. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, A SECOND UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL STILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD AND MOIST FOR SNOW HERE. IT
APPEARS THAT HEAVIER SNOW WILL REMAIN IN KANSAS WITH UP TO A
COUPLE INCHES LIKELY IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BEFORE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER
IS FORECAST BY SEVERAL MODELS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WOULD ALLOW WEAKER WAVES
THAT MAY PASS OVER OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING TO
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES EXCEED FREEZING LATER SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER A WARMER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A WEAK FRONT MONDAY, STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND
MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND GIVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE UPPER TROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW BEFORE THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST OF OKLAHOMA LATER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  27  19  33  30 /  50  30  60  40
HOBART OK         24  18  31  28 /  80  30  50  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  26  23  34  32 /  90  70  50  40
GAGE OK           22  14  31  25 /  70  40  50  30
PONCA CITY OK     26  17  32  27 /  20  20  80  50
DURANT OK         28  24  35  33 /  70  70  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-010-014>016-021>023-027-028-033>036-
     038-040-041.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR OKZ037-039-044>046-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
     FOR OKZ047-048-051-052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ042-043.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ083.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR TXZ084>090.

&&

$$

26/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271003
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
403 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IS APPROACHING WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
SHORTLY. THE MAIN ENERGY OF THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER AREA TODAY. AN ADVISORY FOR UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS
EFFECTIVE FOR THIS AREA WITH PART OF NORTH TEXAS LIKELY TO HAVE
CLOSER TO THIS HIGHER AMOUNT. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, A SECOND UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL STILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD AND MOIST FOR SNOW HERE. IT
APPEARS THAT HEAVIER SNOW WILL REMAIN IN KANSAS WITH UP TO A
COUPLE INCHES LIKELY IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BEFORE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER
IS FORECAST BY SEVERAL MODELS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WOULD ALLOW WEAKER WAVES
THAT MAY PASS OVER OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING TO
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES EXCEED FREEZING LATER SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER A WARMER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A WEAK FRONT MONDAY, STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND
MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND GIVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE UPPER TROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW BEFORE THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST OF OKLAHOMA LATER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  27  19  33  30 /  50  30  60  40
HOBART OK         24  18  31  28 /  80  30  50  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  26  23  34  32 /  90  70  50  40
GAGE OK           22  14  31  25 /  70  40  50  30
PONCA CITY OK     26  17  32  27 /  20  20  80  50
DURANT OK         28  24  35  33 /  70  70  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-010-014>016-021>023-027-028-033>036-
     038-040-041.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR OKZ037-039-044>046-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
     FOR OKZ047-048-051-052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ042-043.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ083.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR TXZ084>090.

&&

$$

26/09




000
FXUS64 KTSA 270933
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
333 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BUSY UPPER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL SLOWLY ERODE WITH
TIME...AND WINTRY PRECIP TYPES WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO LIQUID
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY IN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WILL OFFER LIGHT SNOW CHANCES FOR
MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SE
OK...WITH 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW
COUNTIES. HAVE ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR THOSE COUNTIES EFFECTIVE FROM
NOON TO MIDNIGHT. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...PRECIP CHANCES WILL
REMAIN ONGOING..ESPECIALLY BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY IN RESPONSE TO THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM
COMING ASHORE TO THE CA COAST. FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND WILL MAINLY BE NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN AS WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ENSUE. EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY...ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY AS SURFACE
FEATURES RESPOND TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL LEAVE A
MENTION OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NE OK SHOULD ANY
LINGERING PRECIP INTERACT WITH THE COLDER AIR. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES THROUGH...A PERIOD OF SETTLED WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  21  32  30 /  20  10  60  40
FSM   30  22  36  33 /  20  10  40  40
MLC   28  22  36  33 /  50  20  40  40
BVO   25  17  31  28 /  20  10  80  60
FYV   25  18  32  32 /  20  10  50  50
BYV   23  17  33  30 /  20  10  50  50
MKO   28  21  34  32 /  20  10  50  40
MIO   26  17  33  30 /  20  10  80  70
F10   27  21  34  32 /  30  20  50  40
HHW   30  23  36  35 /  60  40  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ053.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 270933
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
333 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BUSY UPPER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL SLOWLY ERODE WITH
TIME...AND WINTRY PRECIP TYPES WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO LIQUID
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY IN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WILL OFFER LIGHT SNOW CHANCES FOR
MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SE
OK...WITH 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW
COUNTIES. HAVE ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR THOSE COUNTIES EFFECTIVE FROM
NOON TO MIDNIGHT. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...PRECIP CHANCES WILL
REMAIN ONGOING..ESPECIALLY BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY IN RESPONSE TO THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM
COMING ASHORE TO THE CA COAST. FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND WILL MAINLY BE NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN AS WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ENSUE. EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY...ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY AS SURFACE
FEATURES RESPOND TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL LEAVE A
MENTION OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NE OK SHOULD ANY
LINGERING PRECIP INTERACT WITH THE COLDER AIR. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES THROUGH...A PERIOD OF SETTLED WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  21  32  30 /  20  10  60  40
FSM   30  22  36  33 /  20  10  40  40
MLC   28  22  36  33 /  50  20  40  40
BVO   25  17  31  28 /  20  10  80  60
FYV   25  18  32  32 /  20  10  50  50
BYV   23  17  33  30 /  20  10  50  50
MKO   28  21  34  32 /  20  10  50  40
MIO   26  17  33  30 /  20  10  80  70
F10   27  21  34  32 /  30  20  50  40
HHW   30  23  36  35 /  60  40  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ053.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 270513
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1113 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL INCREASE
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AFTER 12Z. LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL TAFS SITES EXCEPT KPNC...WHERE
CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW IS LOWER. OPTED TO INCLUDE PROB30S FOR NOW.
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WHICH MAY RESULT
IN BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR AT KSPS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END WEST TO
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO A MORE
EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CHANCE OF
SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 12Z. THIS WILL
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE -SN AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KPNC. EXPECT MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF SNOW. SNOW WILL END WEST TO EAST LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER FROM MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO
EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

MAHALE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN KICKS OFF LATE TONIGHT... WITH SNOW MOVING
IN FRIDAY MORNING AND WINTRY AND WET WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK S/SE ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS INTO NRN NM/PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT. A WEAK WAVE... IT IS
NOT CARRYING TOO MUCH SOURCE MOISTURE WITH IT AND WITH SFC/BL WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION OUT OF THE N/NE... AND THE MID-LEVEL S/SW WINDS...
MOISTENING OF PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
INCREASING MID-LEVEL ASCENT THROUGH FRI AM. WITH THIS IN MIND...
INITIAL ONSET OF SNOW FRI AM WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL AROUND 6AM FOR
FAR WRN OK/WRN N TX. SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
AS STOUT ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES ACROSS SRN/SWRN OK AND WRN N
TX. EXPECT ONE OR TWO SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY/TEXOMA BUT HOW WIDE... WHERE... AND WHAT TIME...REMAIN THE
BIG QUESTION MARKS. EXPECT SNOW CHANCES WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD
THROUGH NOON... WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE AFTN. OVERALL... FORCING ALOFT STILL
APPEARS WEAKER THROUGH THE AFTN... SO IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL. AS FOR AMOUNTS... 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS FAR
WESTERN AND SRN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION... WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE WRN OK/NRN TX RED RIVER
VALLEY REGION. EXPECT A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH FOR LOCATIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN OKLAHOMA.

FRIDAY NIGHT... LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRY CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE
INITIAL WAVE LIFTS E/NE. AT THE SAME TIME... SFC/BL FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO VEER TO THE S/SE... ALONG WITH AN INCREASING WARM NOSE BETWEEN
APPROXIMATELY 900 TO 800MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX
DEVELOPING ACROSS TEXOMA/SRN OK EARLY... SLEET/FZRA... WITH LIGHT
SNOW LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NRN OK. THE TRANSITION LINE WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE WARM NOSE INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION. A TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATE AFTN ACROSS WRN N TX AND FAR SRN OK.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY... WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OK/WRN N TX AND A RA/FZRA MIX
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF OK. BY SUNDAY AFTN ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL
RAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS
FZRA CHANCES RETURN ACROSS NRN OK THROUGH THE MORNING AND RAIN IN
THE AFTN. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED... WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE
ACCUMULATIONS.

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY... AS THE WRN TROUGH FINALLY
BEGINS TO ADVANCE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SRN OK IN THE AFTN AND TEMPS IN THE 60S. BY NEXT THU... IT LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER FRONT COMES IN... WITH A POSSIBLY RETURN TO WINTER LIKE
WEATHER.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  16  27  19  33 /   0  50  30  60
HOBART OK         16  24  18  31 /  20  80  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  20  26  23  34 /  20  90  70  50
GAGE OK           11  22  14  31 /  30  70  40  50
PONCA CITY OK     11  26  17  32 /   0  20  20  80
DURANT OK         20  28  24  35 /   0  70  70  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR OKZ004-
     009-010-014>016-021>023-027-028-033>036-038-040-041.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR OKZ037-039-044>046-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR OKZ047-048-051-052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR OKZ042-
     043.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ083.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR TXZ084>090.

&&

$$

03/03/10



000
FXUS64 KTSA 270508
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1108 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL SITES OVER THE
NEXT 3 HOURS... WHILE WINDS SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST... THEN
EVENTUALLY TO THE EAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST... BUT
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN VFR LEVELS. LIGHT SNOWFALL
MAY AFFECT EASTERN OKLAHOMA SITES BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED IN KMLC TAF AS PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW AT OTHER
SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL EASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WHILE WINDS SLOWLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY AFFECT A FEW
SITES FRIDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 15-25 MPH HAVE
BEEN COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST
NIGHT. ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CONTINUING TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE...KEEPING HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY BELOW FREEZING FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH THE COLDER
TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING WILL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES TO AGAIN FALL
INTO THE RANGE OF A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...A SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD APPROACHING AND THEN ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW TO BE POSSIBLE...WITH
GREATER CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION
BEHIND LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY COULD SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF PRECIP MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND FRIDAY AND LIMIT THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF ACCUMULATION.
WILL CARRY AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TO NEAR TRACE AMOUNTS OVER FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING...THOUGH WILL KEEP A VERY SLIGHT
POP INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY AND WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD TOWARD BAJA OF CA BY SUNDAY AND
REMAIN THERE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...THIS WILL CREATE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WITH INCREASING MOISTURE/WARM
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THE RESULT WILL BE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SURFACE TEMPS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING AND
SLOWLY WARM TO NEAR/ABOVE FREEZING BY SATURDAY EVENING.
THUS...PRECIP SATURDAY WILL START OUT AS SNOW AND TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THE FREEZING LINE OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO SET UP OVER
EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
A SNOW/SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER TO A FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET MIX FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TO MAINLY RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING
AND CHANGE ALL PRECIP OVER TO RAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRECIP
INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIP TYPE BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKS
TO AGAIN BE WINTRY MIX/FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT CHANGING BACK TO
RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE CLOSE
TO/SLIGHTLY OVER ONE INCH FOR FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS SOUTHWARD. SOME ICE ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
THE PRECIP CHANGES OVER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ANY AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE WAVE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE WAVE TO THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS INTO
THE REGION AND JOINS BACK UP WITH THE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
THUS PRECIP CHANCES WILL AGAIN REMAIN FOR THE CWA INTO THURSDAY
WITH SOME POSSIBLE WINTRY WEATHER BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. SOME
GOOD NEWS IS THAT AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH...EXTENDED MODEL
SOLUTIONS TRY TO FINALLY DRY OUT THE CWA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 270508
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1108 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL SITES OVER THE
NEXT 3 HOURS... WHILE WINDS SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST... THEN
EVENTUALLY TO THE EAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST... BUT
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN VFR LEVELS. LIGHT SNOWFALL
MAY AFFECT EASTERN OKLAHOMA SITES BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED IN KMLC TAF AS PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW AT OTHER
SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL EASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WHILE WINDS SLOWLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY AFFECT A FEW
SITES FRIDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 15-25 MPH HAVE
BEEN COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST
NIGHT. ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CONTINUING TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE...KEEPING HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY BELOW FREEZING FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH THE COLDER
TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING WILL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES TO AGAIN FALL
INTO THE RANGE OF A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...A SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD APPROACHING AND THEN ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW TO BE POSSIBLE...WITH
GREATER CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION
BEHIND LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY COULD SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF PRECIP MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND FRIDAY AND LIMIT THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF ACCUMULATION.
WILL CARRY AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TO NEAR TRACE AMOUNTS OVER FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING...THOUGH WILL KEEP A VERY SLIGHT
POP INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY AND WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD TOWARD BAJA OF CA BY SUNDAY AND
REMAIN THERE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...THIS WILL CREATE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WITH INCREASING MOISTURE/WARM
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THE RESULT WILL BE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SURFACE TEMPS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING AND
SLOWLY WARM TO NEAR/ABOVE FREEZING BY SATURDAY EVENING.
THUS...PRECIP SATURDAY WILL START OUT AS SNOW AND TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THE FREEZING LINE OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO SET UP OVER
EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
A SNOW/SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER TO A FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET MIX FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TO MAINLY RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING
AND CHANGE ALL PRECIP OVER TO RAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRECIP
INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIP TYPE BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKS
TO AGAIN BE WINTRY MIX/FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT CHANGING BACK TO
RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE CLOSE
TO/SLIGHTLY OVER ONE INCH FOR FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS SOUTHWARD. SOME ICE ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
THE PRECIP CHANGES OVER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ANY AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE WAVE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE WAVE TO THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS INTO
THE REGION AND JOINS BACK UP WITH THE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
THUS PRECIP CHANCES WILL AGAIN REMAIN FOR THE CWA INTO THURSDAY
WITH SOME POSSIBLE WINTRY WEATHER BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. SOME
GOOD NEWS IS THAT AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH...EXTENDED MODEL
SOLUTIONS TRY TO FINALLY DRY OUT THE CWA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






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