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000
FXUS64 KOUN 311158 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
558 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
31/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO IFR
CONDITIONS AS AREA OF RAIN INCREASES AND MOISTENS LOWER LEVELS OF
ATMOSPHERE. RAIN WILL END ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING IN STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND DRIER AIR. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO AVIATION WX
EXPECTED JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT WE
COULD STILL SEE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND OR SLIGHTLY OVER
ONE INCH FROM PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NORTHEAST TOWARD AND
JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVIATIONS FROM PREVIOUS FEW FORECASTS WITH RAIN SHIFTING EAST
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LATEST RUN OF MODELS STILL YIELD
POSSIBILITY FOR A CHANGE OVER OR MIX TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SO WE WILL LEAVE
RAIN/SNOW WORDING UP THERE. MINIMAL OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

AS RAIN SHIFTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE
PASSAGE INTO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SPREAD OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. WINDS WILL LIKELY
APPROACH OR PERHAPS EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS DOWN INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE
HEADLINE INCLUSION IN LATER FORECASTS.

AFTER A COLD START MONDAY MORNING...A BRIEF WARMING TREND STILL
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. MID-WEEK
SYSTEM COULD HAVE SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IF TREND OF GFS IS REALIZED. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
YIELD A RAIN TO SNOW AND RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
SCENARIO...WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. POPS WERE RETAINED AND INCREASED A BIT FROM
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. THIS EVENT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE WARM
UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  39  42  20 / 100  90  20   0
HOBART OK         43  39  44  21 / 100  60  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  43  49  24 / 100  80  20   0
GAGE OK           43  35  39  18 /  90  50  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     44  38  38  16 / 100  90  30   0
DURANT OK         52  44  52  25 /  60  90  50   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 311158 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
558 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
31/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO IFR
CONDITIONS AS AREA OF RAIN INCREASES AND MOISTENS LOWER LEVELS OF
ATMOSPHERE. RAIN WILL END ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING IN STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND DRIER AIR. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO AVIATION WX
EXPECTED JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT WE
COULD STILL SEE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND OR SLIGHTLY OVER
ONE INCH FROM PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NORTHEAST TOWARD AND
JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVIATIONS FROM PREVIOUS FEW FORECASTS WITH RAIN SHIFTING EAST
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LATEST RUN OF MODELS STILL YIELD
POSSIBILITY FOR A CHANGE OVER OR MIX TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SO WE WILL LEAVE
RAIN/SNOW WORDING UP THERE. MINIMAL OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

AS RAIN SHIFTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE
PASSAGE INTO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SPREAD OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. WINDS WILL LIKELY
APPROACH OR PERHAPS EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS DOWN INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE
HEADLINE INCLUSION IN LATER FORECASTS.

AFTER A COLD START MONDAY MORNING...A BRIEF WARMING TREND STILL
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. MID-WEEK
SYSTEM COULD HAVE SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IF TREND OF GFS IS REALIZED. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
YIELD A RAIN TO SNOW AND RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
SCENARIO...WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. POPS WERE RETAINED AND INCREASED A BIT FROM
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. THIS EVENT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE WARM
UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  39  42  20 / 100  90  20   0
HOBART OK         43  39  44  21 / 100  60  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  43  49  24 / 100  80  20   0
GAGE OK           43  35  39  18 /  90  50  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     44  38  38  16 / 100  90  30   0
DURANT OK         52  44  52  25 /  60  90  50   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KTSA 311101
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
501 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WITH OVERCAST SKIES WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS LIGHT RAINFALL MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST... CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS. BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... MVFR CEILINGS WITH
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS PREVENTING RAIN FROM REACHING THE
GROUND EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF ANY RAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL
TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SLOWLY SATURATES. THE MAIN RAIN
EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE LAGGING BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT. MOST OF THE RAIN
SHOULD BE MOVING OUT EARLY IN THE DAY WITH ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES
LINGERING PAST MIDDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR MUCH TOO WARM FOR ANY
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION IS
GONE AS WELL BEFORE PROFILES BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE STRONG MAKING FOR A BLUSTERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AFTER A CHILLY DAY MONDAY...A QUICK BUT BRIEF WARMUP WILL TAKE
PLACE TURSDAY. RAPIDLY WARMING LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARING 60 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE MODELS DIFFER ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA SO WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR A POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX.

A RAPID AND LONGER LASTING WARMUP WILL ENSUE BY NEXT FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THAT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
CLIMBING BACK TO UNSEASONABLY WARM LEVELS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 311101
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
501 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WITH OVERCAST SKIES WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS LIGHT RAINFALL MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST... CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS. BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... MVFR CEILINGS WITH
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS PREVENTING RAIN FROM REACHING THE
GROUND EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF ANY RAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL
TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SLOWLY SATURATES. THE MAIN RAIN
EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE LAGGING BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT. MOST OF THE RAIN
SHOULD BE MOVING OUT EARLY IN THE DAY WITH ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES
LINGERING PAST MIDDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR MUCH TOO WARM FOR ANY
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION IS
GONE AS WELL BEFORE PROFILES BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE STRONG MAKING FOR A BLUSTERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AFTER A CHILLY DAY MONDAY...A QUICK BUT BRIEF WARMUP WILL TAKE
PLACE TURSDAY. RAPIDLY WARMING LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARING 60 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE MODELS DIFFER ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA SO WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR A POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX.

A RAPID AND LONGER LASTING WARMUP WILL ENSUE BY NEXT FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THAT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
CLIMBING BACK TO UNSEASONABLY WARM LEVELS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KOUN 311001
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
401 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT WE
COULD STILL SEE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND OR SLIGHTLY OVER
ONE INCH FROM PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NORTHEAST TOWARD AND
JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVIATIONS FROM PREVIOUS FEW FORECASTS WITH RAIN SHIFTING EAST
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LATEST RUN OF MODELS STILL YIELD
POSSIBILITY FOR A CHANGE OVER OR MIX TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SO WE WILL LEAVE
RAIN/SNOW WORDING UP THERE. MINIMAL OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

AS RAIN SHIFTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE
PASSAGE INTO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SPREAD OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. WINDS WILL LIKELY
APPROACH OR PERHAPS EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS DOWN INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE
HEADLINE INCLUSION IN LATER FORECASTS.

AFTER A COLD START MONDAY MORNING...A BRIEF WARMING TREND STILL
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. MID-WEEK
SYSTEM COULD HAVE SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IF TREND OF GFS IS REALIZED. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
YIELD A RAIN TO SNOW AND RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
SCENARIO...WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. POPS WERE RETAINED AND INCREASED A BIT FROM
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. THIS EVENT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE WARM
UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  39  42  20 / 100  90  20   0
HOBART OK         43  39  44  21 / 100  60  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  43  49  24 / 100  80  20   0
GAGE OK           43  35  39  18 /  90  50  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     44  38  38  16 / 100  90  30   0
DURANT OK         52  44  52  25 /  60  90  50   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 311001
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
401 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT WE
COULD STILL SEE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND OR SLIGHTLY OVER
ONE INCH FROM PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NORTHEAST TOWARD AND
JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVIATIONS FROM PREVIOUS FEW FORECASTS WITH RAIN SHIFTING EAST
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LATEST RUN OF MODELS STILL YIELD
POSSIBILITY FOR A CHANGE OVER OR MIX TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SO WE WILL LEAVE
RAIN/SNOW WORDING UP THERE. MINIMAL OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

AS RAIN SHIFTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE
PASSAGE INTO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SPREAD OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. WINDS WILL LIKELY
APPROACH OR PERHAPS EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS DOWN INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE
HEADLINE INCLUSION IN LATER FORECASTS.

AFTER A COLD START MONDAY MORNING...A BRIEF WARMING TREND STILL
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. MID-WEEK
SYSTEM COULD HAVE SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IF TREND OF GFS IS REALIZED. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
YIELD A RAIN TO SNOW AND RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
SCENARIO...WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. POPS WERE RETAINED AND INCREASED A BIT FROM
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. THIS EVENT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE WARM
UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  39  42  20 / 100  90  20   0
HOBART OK         43  39  44  21 / 100  60  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  43  49  24 / 100  80  20   0
GAGE OK           43  35  39  18 /  90  50  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     44  38  38  16 / 100  90  30   0
DURANT OK         52  44  52  25 /  60  90  50   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 311001
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
401 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT WE
COULD STILL SEE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND OR SLIGHTLY OVER
ONE INCH FROM PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NORTHEAST TOWARD AND
JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVIATIONS FROM PREVIOUS FEW FORECASTS WITH RAIN SHIFTING EAST
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LATEST RUN OF MODELS STILL YIELD
POSSIBILITY FOR A CHANGE OVER OR MIX TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SO WE WILL LEAVE
RAIN/SNOW WORDING UP THERE. MINIMAL OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

AS RAIN SHIFTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE
PASSAGE INTO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SPREAD OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. WINDS WILL LIKELY
APPROACH OR PERHAPS EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS DOWN INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE
HEADLINE INCLUSION IN LATER FORECASTS.

AFTER A COLD START MONDAY MORNING...A BRIEF WARMING TREND STILL
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. MID-WEEK
SYSTEM COULD HAVE SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IF TREND OF GFS IS REALIZED. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
YIELD A RAIN TO SNOW AND RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
SCENARIO...WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. POPS WERE RETAINED AND INCREASED A BIT FROM
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. THIS EVENT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE WARM
UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  39  42  20 / 100  90  20   0
HOBART OK         43  39  44  21 / 100  60  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  43  49  24 / 100  80  20   0
GAGE OK           43  35  39  18 /  90  50  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     44  38  38  16 / 100  90  30   0
DURANT OK         52  44  52  25 /  60  90  50   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 311001
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
401 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT WE
COULD STILL SEE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND OR SLIGHTLY OVER
ONE INCH FROM PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NORTHEAST TOWARD AND
JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVIATIONS FROM PREVIOUS FEW FORECASTS WITH RAIN SHIFTING EAST
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LATEST RUN OF MODELS STILL YIELD
POSSIBILITY FOR A CHANGE OVER OR MIX TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SO WE WILL LEAVE
RAIN/SNOW WORDING UP THERE. MINIMAL OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

AS RAIN SHIFTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE
PASSAGE INTO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SPREAD OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. WINDS WILL LIKELY
APPROACH OR PERHAPS EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS DOWN INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE
HEADLINE INCLUSION IN LATER FORECASTS.

AFTER A COLD START MONDAY MORNING...A BRIEF WARMING TREND STILL
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. MID-WEEK
SYSTEM COULD HAVE SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IF TREND OF GFS IS REALIZED. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
YIELD A RAIN TO SNOW AND RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
SCENARIO...WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. POPS WERE RETAINED AND INCREASED A BIT FROM
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. THIS EVENT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE WARM
UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  39  42  20 / 100  90  20   0
HOBART OK         43  39  44  21 / 100  60  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  43  49  24 / 100  80  20   0
GAGE OK           43  35  39  18 /  90  50  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     44  38  38  16 / 100  90  30   0
DURANT OK         52  44  52  25 /  60  90  50   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11



000
FXUS64 KTSA 310936
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
336 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS PREVENTING RAIN FROM REACHING THE
GROUND EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF ANY RAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL
TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SLOWLY SATURATES. THE MAIN RAIN
EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE LAGGING BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT. MOST OF THE RAIN
SHOULD BE MOVING OUT EARLY IN THE DAY WITH ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES
LINGERING PAST MIDDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR MUCH TOO WARM FOR ANY
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION IS
GONE AS WELL BEFORE PROFILES BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE STRONG MAKING FOR A BLUSTERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AFTER A CHILLY DAY MONDAY...A QUICK BUT BRIEF WARMUP WILL TAKE
PLACE TURSDAY. RAPIDLY WARMING LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARING 60 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE MODELS DIFFER ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA SO WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR A POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX.

A RAPID AND LONGER LASTING WARMUP WILL ENSUE BY NEXT FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THAT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
CLIMBING BACK TO UNSEASONABLY WARM LEVELS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  42  46  17 /  70 100  30   0
FSM   54  43  49  22 /  20 100  60  10
MLC   52  45  49  20 /  40 100  40  10
BVO   46  40  44  14 /  80 100  30  10
FYV   51  41  46  17 /  30 100  50  10
BYV   50  40  46  17 /  20 100  60  10
MKO   51  43  48  18 /  40 100  40  10
MIO   49  40  45  15 /  50 100  50  10
F10   50  43  47  18 /  50 100  30  10
HHW   55  45  53  23 /  20 100  70  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE






000
FXUS64 KTSA 310512
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1112 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD FROM WEST TO
EAST...ESPECIALLY FROM 18-24Z WITH -RA AND MVFR VSBYS THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ERN OK TAF SITES. CIGS
WILL ALSO FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORIES IN THE 22-24Z TIME PERIOD AND
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EXPAND WELL TO THE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER SHORT TERM DATA SUGGESTS THE VERY DRY
LOW LEVELS SAMPLES ON THE 00Z REGIONAL RAOBS WILL BE SLOW TO
MOISTEN. FORECAST HAS THIS TREND IN PLACE W/ A GREATER UPTICK IN
PRECIP CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT.
THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK. UPDATED FORECAST WILL ADJUST FOR
OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 310512
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1112 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD FROM WEST TO
EAST...ESPECIALLY FROM 18-24Z WITH -RA AND MVFR VSBYS THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ERN OK TAF SITES. CIGS
WILL ALSO FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORIES IN THE 22-24Z TIME PERIOD AND
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EXPAND WELL TO THE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER SHORT TERM DATA SUGGESTS THE VERY DRY
LOW LEVELS SAMPLES ON THE 00Z REGIONAL RAOBS WILL BE SLOW TO
MOISTEN. FORECAST HAS THIS TREND IN PLACE W/ A GREATER UPTICK IN
PRECIP CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT.
THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK. UPDATED FORECAST WILL ADJUST FOR
OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 310512
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1112 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD FROM WEST TO
EAST...ESPECIALLY FROM 18-24Z WITH -RA AND MVFR VSBYS THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ERN OK TAF SITES. CIGS
WILL ALSO FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORIES IN THE 22-24Z TIME PERIOD AND
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EXPAND WELL TO THE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER SHORT TERM DATA SUGGESTS THE VERY DRY
LOW LEVELS SAMPLES ON THE 00Z REGIONAL RAOBS WILL BE SLOW TO
MOISTEN. FORECAST HAS THIS TREND IN PLACE W/ A GREATER UPTICK IN
PRECIP CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT.
THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK. UPDATED FORECAST WILL ADJUST FOR
OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 310512
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1112 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD FROM WEST TO
EAST...ESPECIALLY FROM 18-24Z WITH -RA AND MVFR VSBYS THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ERN OK TAF SITES. CIGS
WILL ALSO FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORIES IN THE 22-24Z TIME PERIOD AND
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EXPAND WELL TO THE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER SHORT TERM DATA SUGGESTS THE VERY DRY
LOW LEVELS SAMPLES ON THE 00Z REGIONAL RAOBS WILL BE SLOW TO
MOISTEN. FORECAST HAS THIS TREND IN PLACE W/ A GREATER UPTICK IN
PRECIP CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT.
THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK. UPDATED FORECAST WILL ADJUST FOR
OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 310445
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1045 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO MVFR CAT OVERNIGHT AND
THEN IFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY STAY IFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME LIKELY AT ALL SITES BY 12Z AND WILL
ALSO CONT WITH SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES AS WELL. ALTHOUGH HAVE HAD A
COUPLE OF SLEET REPORTS THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST OK... DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THIS CONT AND CHANCES EARLY ON REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET FROM SHATTUCK AND WOODWARD THIS EVENING.
FARTHER NORTH...DDC HAS BEEN REPORTING SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS. DRY
AIR BELOW CLOUD BASE MAY RESULT IN MORE SLEET REPORTS AS INITIAL
PRECIPITATION FORMS/REACHES THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVELS MODIFY THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A COLD
RAIN.

PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PART OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WHERE AROUND A
HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED. AT THE PRESENT TIME...ANY CHANCE OF SNOW
LOOKS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER MAY HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION MAY END
BEFORE ANY TRANSITION OCCURS. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A STRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOW 30S. WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY COULD BE OVER 40 MPH.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE COLD...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS...RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. IF
THE CURRENT TIMING HOLDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE GFS SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
OR SNOW FOR NOW. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. THIS COOL DOWN LOOKS BRIEF...AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  43  37  41 /  40  80  80  30
HOBART OK         36  42  36  44 /  60  90  70  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  45  41  47 /  30  90  80  20
GAGE OK           34  42  32  38 /  60  70  60  10
PONCA CITY OK     35  43  34  38 /  40  80  80  30
DURANT OK         38  48  42  49 /  10  50  80  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 310445
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1045 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO MVFR CAT OVERNIGHT AND
THEN IFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY STAY IFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME LIKELY AT ALL SITES BY 12Z AND WILL
ALSO CONT WITH SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES AS WELL. ALTHOUGH HAVE HAD A
COUPLE OF SLEET REPORTS THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST OK... DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THIS CONT AND CHANCES EARLY ON REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET FROM SHATTUCK AND WOODWARD THIS EVENING.
FARTHER NORTH...DDC HAS BEEN REPORTING SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS. DRY
AIR BELOW CLOUD BASE MAY RESULT IN MORE SLEET REPORTS AS INITIAL
PRECIPITATION FORMS/REACHES THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVELS MODIFY THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A COLD
RAIN.

PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PART OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WHERE AROUND A
HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED. AT THE PRESENT TIME...ANY CHANCE OF SNOW
LOOKS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER MAY HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION MAY END
BEFORE ANY TRANSITION OCCURS. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A STRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOW 30S. WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY COULD BE OVER 40 MPH.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE COLD...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS...RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. IF
THE CURRENT TIMING HOLDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE GFS SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
OR SNOW FOR NOW. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. THIS COOL DOWN LOOKS BRIEF...AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  43  37  41 /  40  80  80  30
HOBART OK         36  42  36  44 /  60  90  70  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  45  41  47 /  30  90  80  20
GAGE OK           34  42  32  38 /  60  70  60  10
PONCA CITY OK     35  43  34  38 /  40  80  80  30
DURANT OK         38  48  42  49 /  10  50  80  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 310328
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
928 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EXPAND WELL TO THE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER SHORT TERM DATA SUGGESTS THE VERY DRY
LOW LEVELS SAMPLES ON THE 00Z REGIONAL RAOBS WILL BE SLOW TO
MOISTEN. FORECAST HAS THIS TREND IN PLACE W/ A GREATER UPTICK IN
PRECIP CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT.
THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK. UPDATED FORECAST WILL ADJUST FOR
OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  46  41  44 /  20  80 100  40
FSM   34  47  42  46 /  10  30 100  80
MLC   38  49  43  47 /  10  50 100  50
BVO   33  44  39  42 /  20  90 100  30
FYV   30  46  39  42 /  10  40 100  80
BYV   30  44  39  41 /  10  40 100  70
MKO   37  46  41  44 /  10  50 100  50
MIO   34  45  38  41 /  20  80 100  60
F10   39  46  42  44 /  10  70 100  40
HHW   38  50  45  51 /  10  30 100  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 310328
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
928 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EXPAND WELL TO THE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER SHORT TERM DATA SUGGESTS THE VERY DRY
LOW LEVELS SAMPLES ON THE 00Z REGIONAL RAOBS WILL BE SLOW TO
MOISTEN. FORECAST HAS THIS TREND IN PLACE W/ A GREATER UPTICK IN
PRECIP CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT.
THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK. UPDATED FORECAST WILL ADJUST FOR
OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  46  41  44 /  20  80 100  40
FSM   34  47  42  46 /  10  30 100  80
MLC   38  49  43  47 /  10  50 100  50
BVO   33  44  39  42 /  20  90 100  30
FYV   30  46  39  42 /  10  40 100  80
BYV   30  44  39  41 /  10  40 100  70
MKO   37  46  41  44 /  10  50 100  50
MIO   34  45  38  41 /  20  80 100  60
F10   39  46  42  44 /  10  70 100  40
HHW   38  50  45  51 /  10  30 100  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 310328
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
928 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EXPAND WELL TO THE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER SHORT TERM DATA SUGGESTS THE VERY DRY
LOW LEVELS SAMPLES ON THE 00Z REGIONAL RAOBS WILL BE SLOW TO
MOISTEN. FORECAST HAS THIS TREND IN PLACE W/ A GREATER UPTICK IN
PRECIP CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT.
THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK. UPDATED FORECAST WILL ADJUST FOR
OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  46  41  44 /  20  80 100  40
FSM   34  47  42  46 /  10  30 100  80
MLC   38  49  43  47 /  10  50 100  50
BVO   33  44  39  42 /  20  90 100  30
FYV   30  46  39  42 /  10  40 100  80
BYV   30  44  39  41 /  10  40 100  70
MKO   37  46  41  44 /  10  50 100  50
MIO   34  45  38  41 /  20  80 100  60
F10   39  46  42  44 /  10  70 100  40
HHW   38  50  45  51 /  10  30 100  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 310328
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
928 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EXPAND WELL TO THE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER SHORT TERM DATA SUGGESTS THE VERY DRY
LOW LEVELS SAMPLES ON THE 00Z REGIONAL RAOBS WILL BE SLOW TO
MOISTEN. FORECAST HAS THIS TREND IN PLACE W/ A GREATER UPTICK IN
PRECIP CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT.
THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK. UPDATED FORECAST WILL ADJUST FOR
OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  46  41  44 /  20  80 100  40
FSM   34  47  42  46 /  10  30 100  80
MLC   38  49  43  47 /  10  50 100  50
BVO   33  44  39  42 /  20  90 100  30
FYV   30  46  39  42 /  10  40 100  80
BYV   30  44  39  41 /  10  40 100  70
MKO   37  46  41  44 /  10  50 100  50
MIO   34  45  38  41 /  20  80 100  60
F10   39  46  42  44 /  10  70 100  40
HHW   38  50  45  51 /  10  30 100  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07






000
FXUS64 KOUN 310327
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
927 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET FROM SHATTUCK AND WOODWARD THIS EVENING.
FARTHER NORTH...DDC HAS BEEN REPORTING SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS. DRY
AIR BELOW CLOUD BASE MAY RESULT IN MORE SLEET REPORTS AS INITIAL
PRECIPITATION FORMS/REACHES THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVELS MODIFY THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A COLD
RAIN.

PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PART OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WHERE AROUND A
HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED. AT THE PRESENT TIME...ANY CHANCE OF SNOW
LOOKS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER MAY HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION MAY END
BEFORE ANY TRANSITION OCCURS. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A STRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOW 30S. WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY COULD BE OVER 40 MPH.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE COLD...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS...RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. IF
THE CURRENT TIMING HOLDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE GFS SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
OR SNOW FOR NOW. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. THIS COOL DOWN LOOKS BRIEF...AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  43  37  41 /  40  80  80  30
HOBART OK         36  42  36  44 /  60  90  70  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  45  41  47 /  30  90  80  20
GAGE OK           34  42  32  38 /  60  70  60  10
PONCA CITY OK     35  43  34  38 /  40  80  80  30
DURANT OK         38  48  42  49 /  10  50  80  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 310327
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
927 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET FROM SHATTUCK AND WOODWARD THIS EVENING.
FARTHER NORTH...DDC HAS BEEN REPORTING SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS. DRY
AIR BELOW CLOUD BASE MAY RESULT IN MORE SLEET REPORTS AS INITIAL
PRECIPITATION FORMS/REACHES THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVELS MODIFY THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A COLD
RAIN.

PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PART OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WHERE AROUND A
HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED. AT THE PRESENT TIME...ANY CHANCE OF SNOW
LOOKS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER MAY HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION MAY END
BEFORE ANY TRANSITION OCCURS. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A STRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOW 30S. WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY COULD BE OVER 40 MPH.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE COLD...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS...RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. IF
THE CURRENT TIMING HOLDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE GFS SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
OR SNOW FOR NOW. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. THIS COOL DOWN LOOKS BRIEF...AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  43  37  41 /  40  80  80  30
HOBART OK         36  42  36  44 /  60  90  70  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  45  41  47 /  30  90  80  20
GAGE OK           34  42  32  38 /  60  70  60  10
PONCA CITY OK     35  43  34  38 /  40  80  80  30
DURANT OK         38  48  42  49 /  10  50  80  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 302324
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
524 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD FROM WEST TO
EAST...ESPECIALLY FROM 18-24Z WITH -RA AND MVFR VSBYS THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ERN OK TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW ENERGY AND MOISTURE
PICKED UP BY WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  CLOUDS FROM THAT  SOUTHWEST SYSTEM
ALREADY COVERING MAJORITY OKLAHOMA.  CLOUD TO OVERSPREAD
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT..NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
SLOW PROGRESSION OF RAIN EAST  SATURDAY DUE TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW.  GUARANTEED RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT ALL AREAS...
MOST AREAS RECEIVING  UPWARDS  OF ONE HALF INCH RAINFALL.

COLD FRONT SUNDAY COULD BRING IN ENOUGH COLD AIR THAT AS
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THERE MAY BE A BRIEF MIX
OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW...OR DRIZZLE.  TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S WILL PRECLUDE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

QUICK COOL DOWN MONDAY FOLLOWED BY RAPID WARM UP TUESDAY.
ANOTHER RAPID COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY IN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT.  ECMWF DRY POST COLD FRONT WHILE
GFS BRINGS MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MARGINAL POP
CARRIED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR WINTRY PRECIP.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 302324
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
524 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD FROM WEST TO
EAST...ESPECIALLY FROM 18-24Z WITH -RA AND MVFR VSBYS THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ERN OK TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW ENERGY AND MOISTURE
PICKED UP BY WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  CLOUDS FROM THAT  SOUTHWEST SYSTEM
ALREADY COVERING MAJORITY OKLAHOMA.  CLOUD TO OVERSPREAD
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT..NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
SLOW PROGRESSION OF RAIN EAST  SATURDAY DUE TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW.  GUARANTEED RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT ALL AREAS...
MOST AREAS RECEIVING  UPWARDS  OF ONE HALF INCH RAINFALL.

COLD FRONT SUNDAY COULD BRING IN ENOUGH COLD AIR THAT AS
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THERE MAY BE A BRIEF MIX
OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW...OR DRIZZLE.  TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S WILL PRECLUDE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

QUICK COOL DOWN MONDAY FOLLOWED BY RAPID WARM UP TUESDAY.
ANOTHER RAPID COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY IN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT.  ECMWF DRY POST COLD FRONT WHILE
GFS BRINGS MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MARGINAL POP
CARRIED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR WINTRY PRECIP.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 302156
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
356 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WHERE AROUND A
HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED. AT THE PRESENT TIME...ANY CHANCE OF SNOW
LOOKS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER MAY HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION MAY END
BEFORE ANY TRANSITION OCCURS. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A STRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOW 30S. WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY COULD BE OVER 40 MPH.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE COLD...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS...RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. IF
THE CURRENT TIMING HOLDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE GFS SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
OR SNOW FOR NOW. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. THIS COOL DOWN LOOKS BRIEF...AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  43  37  41 /  40  80  80  30
HOBART OK         36  42  36  44 /  60  90  70  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  45  41  47 /  30  90  80  20
GAGE OK           34  42  32  38 /  60  70  60  10
PONCA CITY OK     35  43  34  38 /  40  80  80  30
DURANT OK         38  48  42  49 /  10  50  80  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/10



000
FXUS64 KOUN 302156
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
356 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WHERE AROUND A
HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED. AT THE PRESENT TIME...ANY CHANCE OF SNOW
LOOKS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER MAY HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION MAY END
BEFORE ANY TRANSITION OCCURS. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A STRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOW 30S. WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY COULD BE OVER 40 MPH.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE COLD...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS...RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. IF
THE CURRENT TIMING HOLDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE GFS SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
OR SNOW FOR NOW. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. THIS COOL DOWN LOOKS BRIEF...AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  43  37  41 /  40  80  80  30
HOBART OK         36  42  36  44 /  60  90  70  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  45  41  47 /  30  90  80  20
GAGE OK           34  42  32  38 /  60  70  60  10
PONCA CITY OK     35  43  34  38 /  40  80  80  30
DURANT OK         38  48  42  49 /  10  50  80  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 302138
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
338 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW ENERGY AND MOISTURE
PICKED UP BY WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  CLOUDS FROM THAT  SOUTHWEST SYSTEM
ALREADY COVERING MAJORITY OKLAHOMA.  CLOUD TO OVERSPREAD
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT..NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
SLOW PROGRESSION OF RAIN EAST  SATURDAY DUE TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW.  GUARANTEED RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT ALL AREAS...
MOST AREAS RECEIVING  UPWARDS  OF ONE HALF INCH RAINFALL.

COLD FRONT SUNDAY COULD BRING IN ENOUGH COLD AIR THAT AS
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THERE MAY BE A BRIEF MIX
OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW...OR DRIZZLE.  TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S WILL PRECLUDE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

QUICK COOL DOWN MONDAY FOLLOWED BY RAPID WARM UP TUESDAY.
ANOTHER RAPID COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY IN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT.  ECMWF DRY POST COLD FRONT WHILE
GFS BRINGS MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MARGINAL POP
CARRIED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR WINTRY PRECIP.
GW



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  46  41  44 /  20  80 100  40
FSM   34  47  42  46 /   0  30 100  80
MLC   38  49  43  47 /  10  50 100  50
BVO   36  44  39  42 /  20  90 100  30
FYV   30  46  39  42 /   0  40 100  80
BYV   30  44  39  41 /   0  40 100  70
MKO   37  46  41  44 /  10  50 100  50
MIO   34  45  38  41 /  20  80 100  60
F10   39  46  42  44 /  10  70 100  40
HHW   38  50  45  51 /  10  30 100  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 302138
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
338 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW ENERGY AND MOISTURE
PICKED UP BY WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  CLOUDS FROM THAT  SOUTHWEST SYSTEM
ALREADY COVERING MAJORITY OKLAHOMA.  CLOUD TO OVERSPREAD
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT..NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
SLOW PROGRESSION OF RAIN EAST  SATURDAY DUE TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW.  GUARANTEED RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT ALL AREAS...
MOST AREAS RECEIVING  UPWARDS  OF ONE HALF INCH RAINFALL.

COLD FRONT SUNDAY COULD BRING IN ENOUGH COLD AIR THAT AS
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THERE MAY BE A BRIEF MIX
OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW...OR DRIZZLE.  TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S WILL PRECLUDE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

QUICK COOL DOWN MONDAY FOLLOWED BY RAPID WARM UP TUESDAY.
ANOTHER RAPID COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY IN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT.  ECMWF DRY POST COLD FRONT WHILE
GFS BRINGS MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MARGINAL POP
CARRIED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR WINTRY PRECIP.
GW



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  46  41  44 /  20  80 100  40
FSM   34  47  42  46 /   0  30 100  80
MLC   38  49  43  47 /  10  50 100  50
BVO   36  44  39  42 /  20  90 100  30
FYV   30  46  39  42 /   0  40 100  80
BYV   30  44  39  41 /   0  40 100  70
MKO   37  46  41  44 /  10  50 100  50
MIO   34  45  38  41 /  20  80 100  60
F10   39  46  42  44 /  10  70 100  40
HHW   38  50  45  51 /  10  30 100  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 301736
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1136 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD WITH HI PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. INCREASING HI CLOUD WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO
AROUND 10 KFT TONIGHT...AND DOWN TO 5KFT OVR NE OK TAF SITES BY
THE END OF THE PD. A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MAINLY AFT
10Z AT THE NE OK SITES AS WELL.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE...WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY
WIND IN MOST PLACES. CLOUDS WERE INCREASING AT 15KFT AND
ABOVE...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME BREAKS HERE AND THERE
THRU THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT. A VERY
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL PREVENT PRECIP OVER ANY PART OF EASTERN
OK UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. GOING HIGHS WERE PRETTY MUCH IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. MAIN TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS
TODAY WAS TO SKY COVER BASED ON OBS TRENDS.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL BEGINNING BEFORE
12Z SATURDAY AT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SITES. HOWEVER... THE CHANCE IS
TOO SLIGHT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT US OVER THE WEEKEND BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL
NOT BE TOO BAD OF A DAY FOR LATE JANUARY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER SOME OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT.

THE RAIN WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PUSHING EAST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD AREA WIDE AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST OPENS UP AND
MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
PERIOD WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING EARLY SUNDAY BUT A FEW AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE COLDEST AIR AT THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS IT
APPEARS THAT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. A FEW WET MUSHY SNOW FLAKES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF
ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS BY THAT TIME BUT NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST PEOPLE LIVE WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 40 UNTIL THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED.

AFTER A CHILLY DAY MONDAY...A QUICK BUT BRIEF WARMUP WILL TAKE
PLACE TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN FOR THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
REVISITED LATER. A WARMING TREND THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP JUST BEYOND
THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WENT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO
THICKENING CLOUD COVER BUT STAYED CLOSE TO MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
VALUES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  36  46  41 /   0  20  60  90
FSM   54  34  49  41 /   0   0  30  80
MLC   55  36  48  43 /   0  10  40  90
BVO   50  34  45  40 /   0  20  60  90
FYV   53  32  49  40 /   0   0  30  80
BYV   51  31  48  40 /   0   0  30  80
MKO   53  36  47  41 /   0  10  40  90
MIO   50  34  46  40 /   0  10  60  90
F10   52  36  47  42 /   0  10  50  90
HHW   55  36  50  43 /   0  10  30  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30







000
FXUS64 KTSA 301736
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1136 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD WITH HI PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. INCREASING HI CLOUD WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO
AROUND 10 KFT TONIGHT...AND DOWN TO 5KFT OVR NE OK TAF SITES BY
THE END OF THE PD. A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MAINLY AFT
10Z AT THE NE OK SITES AS WELL.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE...WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY
WIND IN MOST PLACES. CLOUDS WERE INCREASING AT 15KFT AND
ABOVE...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME BREAKS HERE AND THERE
THRU THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT. A VERY
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL PREVENT PRECIP OVER ANY PART OF EASTERN
OK UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. GOING HIGHS WERE PRETTY MUCH IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. MAIN TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS
TODAY WAS TO SKY COVER BASED ON OBS TRENDS.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL BEGINNING BEFORE
12Z SATURDAY AT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SITES. HOWEVER... THE CHANCE IS
TOO SLIGHT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT US OVER THE WEEKEND BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL
NOT BE TOO BAD OF A DAY FOR LATE JANUARY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER SOME OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT.

THE RAIN WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PUSHING EAST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD AREA WIDE AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST OPENS UP AND
MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
PERIOD WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING EARLY SUNDAY BUT A FEW AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE COLDEST AIR AT THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS IT
APPEARS THAT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. A FEW WET MUSHY SNOW FLAKES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF
ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS BY THAT TIME BUT NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST PEOPLE LIVE WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 40 UNTIL THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED.

AFTER A CHILLY DAY MONDAY...A QUICK BUT BRIEF WARMUP WILL TAKE
PLACE TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN FOR THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
REVISITED LATER. A WARMING TREND THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP JUST BEYOND
THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WENT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO
THICKENING CLOUD COVER BUT STAYED CLOSE TO MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
VALUES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  36  46  41 /   0  20  60  90
FSM   54  34  49  41 /   0   0  30  80
MLC   55  36  48  43 /   0  10  40  90
BVO   50  34  45  40 /   0  20  60  90
FYV   53  32  49  40 /   0   0  30  80
BYV   51  31  48  40 /   0   0  30  80
MKO   53  36  47  41 /   0  10  40  90
MIO   50  34  46  40 /   0  10  60  90
F10   52  36  47  42 /   0  10  50  90
HHW   55  36  50  43 /   0  10  30  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KOUN 301719
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1119 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WORSENING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH 03Z...THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE
AFTER 03Z.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH BR WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST
AFTER 03Z. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY OCCUR AFTER 12Z.
THE TIMING OF THESE LOWER CONDITIONS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

-RA WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 03Z AS WELL.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST...AND A STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST
APPROACHES. RADAR ECHOES IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE VIRGA
NOW...BUT ACTUAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY LATER TODAY
AND THIS EVENING.

THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS POINT. WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN CASE THE CLOUD COVER IS
THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
30/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
UNTIL AFTER 04-06Z WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. -RA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ENTER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TOWARD AND AFTER END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL EXPECTED ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
ONSET AND AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF CWA COULD SEE
SOME SPRINKLES BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKING FOR
APPRECIABLE RAIN TO ENTER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS
OF NORTHERN TEXAS THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN...SOME
MODERATE...HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY OVER MOST
AREAS AND LASTING ON AND OFF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHERE AVERAGE OF AROUND 1 INCH EXPECTED. HOPEFULLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE MORE THAN JUST A SPOTTY OCCURRENCE. AS FAR AS POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW...BOTH THE GFS AND WRF INDICATE VERY SHORT WINDOW OF TIME
FOR CHANGE OVER OR MIX EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPTED TO TAKE OUT
MENTION OF SNOW ALTOGETHER BUT WILL DEFER AND SEE IF THIS MODEL
TREND CONTINUES.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
SURGES SOUTH OVER THE REGION. WITH ANTICIPATION FOR CLEARING
SUNDAY NIGHT...MONDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER COLD WITH MOST
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. FAIRLY QUICK BUT MODEST
WARMUP AHEAD OF ANOTHER RESPECTABLE FRONT MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE
HAVING TROUBLE WITH EVOLUTION OF EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN EASTERN
TROUGH AMPLITUDE. SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE INTRUSION OF MIDWEEK
FRONT. 00Z GEM AND 06Z GFS FASTEST...BRINGING FRONT INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 00Z ECM MUCH SLOWER...BRINGING FRONT
INTO REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WITH LAGGING POST
FRONTAL S/WV THE ECM PRODUCES A SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL NOT BE ADDED
TO FORECAST WITH SUCH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY BUT WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  45  36 /  10  40  80  90
HOBART OK         49  36  43  36 /  10  60  90  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  39  45  39 /  10  30  90 100
GAGE OK           47  34  42  32 /  20  60  70  60
PONCA CITY OK     48  35  44  34 /  10  40  80  90
DURANT OK         55  38  48  40 /  10  10  60  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301719
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1119 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WORSENING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH 03Z...THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE
AFTER 03Z.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH BR WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST
AFTER 03Z. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY OCCUR AFTER 12Z.
THE TIMING OF THESE LOWER CONDITIONS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

-RA WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 03Z AS WELL.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST...AND A STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST
APPROACHES. RADAR ECHOES IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE VIRGA
NOW...BUT ACTUAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY LATER TODAY
AND THIS EVENING.

THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS POINT. WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN CASE THE CLOUD COVER IS
THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
30/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
UNTIL AFTER 04-06Z WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. -RA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ENTER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TOWARD AND AFTER END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL EXPECTED ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
ONSET AND AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF CWA COULD SEE
SOME SPRINKLES BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKING FOR
APPRECIABLE RAIN TO ENTER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS
OF NORTHERN TEXAS THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN...SOME
MODERATE...HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY OVER MOST
AREAS AND LASTING ON AND OFF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHERE AVERAGE OF AROUND 1 INCH EXPECTED. HOPEFULLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE MORE THAN JUST A SPOTTY OCCURRENCE. AS FAR AS POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW...BOTH THE GFS AND WRF INDICATE VERY SHORT WINDOW OF TIME
FOR CHANGE OVER OR MIX EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPTED TO TAKE OUT
MENTION OF SNOW ALTOGETHER BUT WILL DEFER AND SEE IF THIS MODEL
TREND CONTINUES.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
SURGES SOUTH OVER THE REGION. WITH ANTICIPATION FOR CLEARING
SUNDAY NIGHT...MONDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER COLD WITH MOST
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. FAIRLY QUICK BUT MODEST
WARMUP AHEAD OF ANOTHER RESPECTABLE FRONT MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE
HAVING TROUBLE WITH EVOLUTION OF EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN EASTERN
TROUGH AMPLITUDE. SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE INTRUSION OF MIDWEEK
FRONT. 00Z GEM AND 06Z GFS FASTEST...BRINGING FRONT INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 00Z ECM MUCH SLOWER...BRINGING FRONT
INTO REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WITH LAGGING POST
FRONTAL S/WV THE ECM PRODUCES A SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL NOT BE ADDED
TO FORECAST WITH SUCH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY BUT WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  45  36 /  10  40  80  90
HOBART OK         49  36  43  36 /  10  60  90  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  39  45  39 /  10  30  90 100
GAGE OK           47  34  42  32 /  20  60  70  60
PONCA CITY OK     48  35  44  34 /  10  40  80  90
DURANT OK         55  38  48  40 /  10  10  60  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301719
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1119 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WORSENING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH 03Z...THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE
AFTER 03Z.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH BR WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST
AFTER 03Z. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY OCCUR AFTER 12Z.
THE TIMING OF THESE LOWER CONDITIONS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

-RA WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 03Z AS WELL.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST...AND A STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST
APPROACHES. RADAR ECHOES IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE VIRGA
NOW...BUT ACTUAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY LATER TODAY
AND THIS EVENING.

THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS POINT. WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN CASE THE CLOUD COVER IS
THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
30/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
UNTIL AFTER 04-06Z WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. -RA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ENTER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TOWARD AND AFTER END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL EXPECTED ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
ONSET AND AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF CWA COULD SEE
SOME SPRINKLES BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKING FOR
APPRECIABLE RAIN TO ENTER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS
OF NORTHERN TEXAS THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN...SOME
MODERATE...HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY OVER MOST
AREAS AND LASTING ON AND OFF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHERE AVERAGE OF AROUND 1 INCH EXPECTED. HOPEFULLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE MORE THAN JUST A SPOTTY OCCURRENCE. AS FAR AS POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW...BOTH THE GFS AND WRF INDICATE VERY SHORT WINDOW OF TIME
FOR CHANGE OVER OR MIX EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPTED TO TAKE OUT
MENTION OF SNOW ALTOGETHER BUT WILL DEFER AND SEE IF THIS MODEL
TREND CONTINUES.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
SURGES SOUTH OVER THE REGION. WITH ANTICIPATION FOR CLEARING
SUNDAY NIGHT...MONDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER COLD WITH MOST
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. FAIRLY QUICK BUT MODEST
WARMUP AHEAD OF ANOTHER RESPECTABLE FRONT MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE
HAVING TROUBLE WITH EVOLUTION OF EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN EASTERN
TROUGH AMPLITUDE. SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE INTRUSION OF MIDWEEK
FRONT. 00Z GEM AND 06Z GFS FASTEST...BRINGING FRONT INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 00Z ECM MUCH SLOWER...BRINGING FRONT
INTO REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WITH LAGGING POST
FRONTAL S/WV THE ECM PRODUCES A SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL NOT BE ADDED
TO FORECAST WITH SUCH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY BUT WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  45  36 /  10  40  80  90
HOBART OK         49  36  43  36 /  10  60  90  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  39  45  39 /  10  30  90 100
GAGE OK           47  34  42  32 /  20  60  70  60
PONCA CITY OK     48  35  44  34 /  10  40  80  90
DURANT OK         55  38  48  40 /  10  10  60  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301719
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1119 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WORSENING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH 03Z...THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE
AFTER 03Z.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH BR WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST
AFTER 03Z. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY OCCUR AFTER 12Z.
THE TIMING OF THESE LOWER CONDITIONS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

-RA WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 03Z AS WELL.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST...AND A STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST
APPROACHES. RADAR ECHOES IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE VIRGA
NOW...BUT ACTUAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY LATER TODAY
AND THIS EVENING.

THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS POINT. WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN CASE THE CLOUD COVER IS
THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
30/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
UNTIL AFTER 04-06Z WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. -RA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ENTER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TOWARD AND AFTER END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL EXPECTED ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
ONSET AND AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF CWA COULD SEE
SOME SPRINKLES BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKING FOR
APPRECIABLE RAIN TO ENTER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS
OF NORTHERN TEXAS THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN...SOME
MODERATE...HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY OVER MOST
AREAS AND LASTING ON AND OFF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHERE AVERAGE OF AROUND 1 INCH EXPECTED. HOPEFULLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE MORE THAN JUST A SPOTTY OCCURRENCE. AS FAR AS POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW...BOTH THE GFS AND WRF INDICATE VERY SHORT WINDOW OF TIME
FOR CHANGE OVER OR MIX EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPTED TO TAKE OUT
MENTION OF SNOW ALTOGETHER BUT WILL DEFER AND SEE IF THIS MODEL
TREND CONTINUES.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
SURGES SOUTH OVER THE REGION. WITH ANTICIPATION FOR CLEARING
SUNDAY NIGHT...MONDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER COLD WITH MOST
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. FAIRLY QUICK BUT MODEST
WARMUP AHEAD OF ANOTHER RESPECTABLE FRONT MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE
HAVING TROUBLE WITH EVOLUTION OF EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN EASTERN
TROUGH AMPLITUDE. SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE INTRUSION OF MIDWEEK
FRONT. 00Z GEM AND 06Z GFS FASTEST...BRINGING FRONT INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 00Z ECM MUCH SLOWER...BRINGING FRONT
INTO REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WITH LAGGING POST
FRONTAL S/WV THE ECM PRODUCES A SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL NOT BE ADDED
TO FORECAST WITH SUCH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY BUT WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  45  36 /  10  40  80  90
HOBART OK         49  36  43  36 /  10  60  90  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  39  45  39 /  10  30  90 100
GAGE OK           47  34  42  32 /  20  60  70  60
PONCA CITY OK     48  35  44  34 /  10  40  80  90
DURANT OK         55  38  48  40 /  10  10  60  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17/17




000
FXUS64 KTSA 301640
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1040 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE...WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY
WIND IN MOST PLACES. CLOUDS WERE INCREASING AT 15KFT AND
ABOVE...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME BREAKS HERE AND THERE
THRU THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT. A VERY
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL PREVENT PRECIP OVER ANY PART OF EASTERN
OK UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. GOING HIGHS WERE PRETTY MUCH IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. MAIN TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS
TODAY WAS TO SKY COVER BASED ON OBS TRENDS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL BEGINNING BEFORE
12Z SATURDAY AT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SITES. HOWEVER... THE CHANCE IS
TOO SLIGHT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT US OVER THE WEEKEND BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL
NOT BE TOO BAD OF A DAY FOR LATE JANUARY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER SOME OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT.

THE RAIN WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PUSHING EAST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD AREA WIDE AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST OPENS UP AND
MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
PERIOD WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING EARLY SUNDAY BUT A FEW AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE COLDEST AIR AT THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS IT
APPEARS THAT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. A FEW WET MUSHY SNOW FLAKES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF
ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS BY THAT TIME BUT NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST PEOPLE LIVE WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 40 UNTIL THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED.

AFTER A CHILLY DAY MONDAY...A QUICK BUT BRIEF WARMUP WILL TAKE
PLACE TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN FOR THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
REVISITED LATER. A WARMING TREND THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP JUST BEYOND
THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WENT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO
THICKENING CLOUD COVER BUT STAYED CLOSE TO MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
VALUES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  36  46  41 /   0  20  60  90
FSM   54  34  49  41 /   0   0  30  80
MLC   55  36  48  43 /   0  10  40  90
BVO   50  34  45  40 /   0  20  60  90
FYV   53  32  49  40 /   0   0  30  80
BYV   51  31  48  40 /   0   0  30  80
MKO   53  36  47  41 /   0  10  40  90
MIO   50  34  46  40 /   0  10  60  90
F10   52  36  47  42 /   0  10  50  90
HHW   55  36  50  43 /   0  10  30  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30





000
FXUS64 KOUN 301622
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1022 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST...AND A STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST
APPROACHES. RADAR ECHOES IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE VIRGA
NOW...BUT ACTUAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY LATER TODAY
AND THIS EVENING.

THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS POINT. WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN CASE THE CLOUD COVER IS
THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
30/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
UNTIL AFTER 04-06Z WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. -RA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ENTER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TOWARD AND AFTER END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL EXPECTED ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
ONSET AND AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF CWA COULD SEE
SOME SPRINKLES BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKING FOR
APPRECIABLE RAIN TO ENTER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS
OF NORTHERN TEXAS THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN...SOME
MODERATE...HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY OVER MOST
AREAS AND LASTING ON AND OFF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHERE AVERAGE OF AROUND 1 INCH EXPECTED. HOPEFULLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE MORE THAN JUST A SPOTTY OCCURRENCE. AS FAR AS POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW...BOTH THE GFS AND WRF INDICATE VERY SHORT WINDOW OF TIME
FOR CHANGE OVER OR MIX EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPTED TO TAKE OUT
MENTION OF SNOW ALTOGETHER BUT WILL DEFER AND SEE IF THIS MODEL
TREND CONTINUES.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
SURGES SOUTH OVER THE REGION. WITH ANTICIPATION FOR CLEARING
SUNDAY NIGHT...MONDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER COLD WITH MOST
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. FAIRLY QUICK BUT MODEST
WARMUP AHEAD OF ANOTHER RESPECTABLE FRONT MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE
HAVING TROUBLE WITH EVOLUTION OF EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN EASTERN
TROUGH AMPLITUDE. SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE INTRUSION OF MIDWEEK
FRONT. 00Z GEM AND 06Z GFS FASTEST...BRINGING FRONT INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 00Z ECM MUCH SLOWER...BRINGING FRONT
INTO REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WITH LAGGING POST
FRONTAL S/WV THE ECM PRODUCES A SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL NOT BE ADDED
TO FORECAST WITH SUCH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY BUT WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  45  36 /  10  40  80  90
HOBART OK         49  36  43  36 /  10  60  90  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  39  45  39 /  10  30  90 100
GAGE OK           47  34  42  32 /  20  60  70  60
PONCA CITY OK     48  35  44  34 /  10  40  80  90
DURANT OK         55  38  48  40 /  10  10  60  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301622
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1022 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST...AND A STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST
APPROACHES. RADAR ECHOES IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE VIRGA
NOW...BUT ACTUAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY LATER TODAY
AND THIS EVENING.

THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS POINT. WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN CASE THE CLOUD COVER IS
THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
30/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
UNTIL AFTER 04-06Z WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. -RA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ENTER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TOWARD AND AFTER END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL EXPECTED ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
ONSET AND AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF CWA COULD SEE
SOME SPRINKLES BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKING FOR
APPRECIABLE RAIN TO ENTER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS
OF NORTHERN TEXAS THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN...SOME
MODERATE...HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY OVER MOST
AREAS AND LASTING ON AND OFF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHERE AVERAGE OF AROUND 1 INCH EXPECTED. HOPEFULLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE MORE THAN JUST A SPOTTY OCCURRENCE. AS FAR AS POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW...BOTH THE GFS AND WRF INDICATE VERY SHORT WINDOW OF TIME
FOR CHANGE OVER OR MIX EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPTED TO TAKE OUT
MENTION OF SNOW ALTOGETHER BUT WILL DEFER AND SEE IF THIS MODEL
TREND CONTINUES.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
SURGES SOUTH OVER THE REGION. WITH ANTICIPATION FOR CLEARING
SUNDAY NIGHT...MONDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER COLD WITH MOST
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. FAIRLY QUICK BUT MODEST
WARMUP AHEAD OF ANOTHER RESPECTABLE FRONT MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE
HAVING TROUBLE WITH EVOLUTION OF EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN EASTERN
TROUGH AMPLITUDE. SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE INTRUSION OF MIDWEEK
FRONT. 00Z GEM AND 06Z GFS FASTEST...BRINGING FRONT INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 00Z ECM MUCH SLOWER...BRINGING FRONT
INTO REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WITH LAGGING POST
FRONTAL S/WV THE ECM PRODUCES A SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL NOT BE ADDED
TO FORECAST WITH SUCH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY BUT WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  45  36 /  10  40  80  90
HOBART OK         49  36  43  36 /  10  60  90  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  39  45  39 /  10  30  90 100
GAGE OK           47  34  42  32 /  20  60  70  60
PONCA CITY OK     48  35  44  34 /  10  40  80  90
DURANT OK         55  38  48  40 /  10  10  60  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301144 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
544 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
30/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
UNTIL AFTER 04-06Z WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. -RA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ENTER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TOWARD AND AFTER END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL EXPECTED ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
ONSET AND AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF CWA COULD SEE
SOME SPRINKLES BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKING FOR
APPRECIABLE RAIN TO ENTER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS
OF NORTHERN TEXAS THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN...SOME
MODERATE...HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY OVER MOST
AREAS AND LASTING ON AND OFF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHERE AVERAGE OF AROUND 1 INCH EXPECTED. HOPEFULLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE MORE THAN JUST A SPOTTY OCCURRENCE. AS FAR AS POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW...BOTH THE GFS AND WRF INDICATE VERY SHORT WINDOW OF TIME
FOR CHANGE OVER OR MIX EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPTED TO TAKE OUT
MENTION OF SNOW ALTOGETHER BUT WILL DEFER AND SEE IF THIS MODEL
TREND CONTINUES.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
SURGES SOUTH OVER THE REGION. WITH ANTICIPATION FOR CLEARING
SUNDAY NIGHT...MONDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER COLD WITH MOST
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. FAIRLY QUICK BUT MODEST
WARMUP AHEAD OF ANOTHER RESPECTABLE FRONT MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE
HAVING TROUBLE WITH EVOLUTION OF EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN EASTERN
TROUGH AMPLITUDE. SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE INTRUSION OF MIDWEEK
FRONT. 00Z GEM AND 06Z GFS FASTEST...BRINGING FRONT INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 00Z ECM MUCH SLOWER...BRINGING FRONT
INTO REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WITH LAGGING POST
FRONTAL S/WV THE ECM PRODUCES A SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL NOT BE ADDED
TO FORECAST WITH SUCH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY BUT WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  45  36 /  10  40  80  90
HOBART OK         49  36  43  36 /  10  60  90  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  39  45  39 /  10  30  90 100
GAGE OK           47  34  42  32 /  20  60  70  60
PONCA CITY OK     48  35  44  34 /  10  40  80  90
DURANT OK         55  38  48  40 /  10  10  60  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/99/11



000
FXUS64 KTSA 301057
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL BEGINNING BEFORE
12Z SATURDAY AT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SITES. HOWEVER... THE CHANCE IS
TOO SLIGHT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT US OVER THE WEEKEND BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL
NOT BE TOO BAD OF A DAY FOR LATE JANUARY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER SOME OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT.

THE RAIN WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PUSHING EAST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD AREA WIDE AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST OPENS UP AND
MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
PERIOD WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING EARLY SUNDAY BUT A FEW AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE COLDEST AIR AT THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS IT
APPEARS THAT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. A FEW WET MUSHY SNOW FLAKES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF
ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS BY THAT TIME BUT NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST PEOPLE LIVE WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 40 UNTIL THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED.

AFTER A CHILLY DAY MONDAY...A QUICK BUT BRIEF WARMUP WILL TAKE
PLACE TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN FOR THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
REVISITED LATER. A WARMING TREND THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP JUST BEYOND
THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WENT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO
THICKENING CLOUD COVER BUT STAYED CLOSE TO MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
VALUES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 301057
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL BEGINNING BEFORE
12Z SATURDAY AT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SITES. HOWEVER... THE CHANCE IS
TOO SLIGHT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT US OVER THE WEEKEND BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL
NOT BE TOO BAD OF A DAY FOR LATE JANUARY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER SOME OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT.

THE RAIN WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PUSHING EAST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD AREA WIDE AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST OPENS UP AND
MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
PERIOD WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING EARLY SUNDAY BUT A FEW AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE COLDEST AIR AT THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS IT
APPEARS THAT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. A FEW WET MUSHY SNOW FLAKES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF
ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS BY THAT TIME BUT NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST PEOPLE LIVE WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 40 UNTIL THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED.

AFTER A CHILLY DAY MONDAY...A QUICK BUT BRIEF WARMUP WILL TAKE
PLACE TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN FOR THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
REVISITED LATER. A WARMING TREND THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP JUST BEYOND
THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WENT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO
THICKENING CLOUD COVER BUT STAYED CLOSE TO MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
VALUES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KOUN 301023
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
423 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL EXPECTED ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
ONSET AND AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF CWA COULD SEE
SOME SPRINKLES BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKING FOR
APPRECIABLE RAIN TO ENTER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS
OF NORTHERN TEXAS THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN...SOME
MODERATE...HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY OVER MOST
AREAS AND LASTING ON AND OFF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHERE AVERAGE OF AROUND 1 INCH EXPECTED. HOPEFULLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE MORE THAN JUST A SPOTTY OCCURRENCE. AS FAR AS POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW...BOTH THE GFS AND WRF INDICATE VERY SHORT WINDOW OF TIME
FOR CHANGE OVER OR MIX EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPTED TO TAKE OUT
MENTION OF SNOW ALTOGETHER BUT WILL DEFER AND SEE IF THIS MODEL
TREND CONTINUES.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
SURGES SOUTH OVER THE REGION. WITH ANTICIPATION FOR CLEARING
SUNDAY NIGHT...MONDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER COLD WITH MOST
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. FAIRLY QUICK BUT MODEST
WARMUP AHEAD OF ANOTHER RESPECTABLE FRONT MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE
HAVING TROUBLE WITH EVOLUTION OF EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN EASTERN
TROUGH AMPLITUDE. SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE INTRUSION OF MIDWEEK
FRONT. 00Z GEM AND 06Z GFS FASTEST...BRINGING FRONT INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 00Z ECM MUCH SLOWER...BRINGING FRONT
INTO REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WITH LAGGING POST
FRONTAL S/WV THE ECM PRODUCES A SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL NOT BE ADDED
TO FORECAST WITH SUCH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY BUT WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  45  36 /  10  40  80  90
HOBART OK         49  36  43  36 /  10  60  90  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  39  45  39 /  10  30  90 100
GAGE OK           47  34  42  32 /  20  60  70  60
PONCA CITY OK     48  35  44  34 /  10  40  80  90
DURANT OK         55  38  48  40 /  10  10  60  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11



000
FXUS64 KOUN 301023
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
423 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL EXPECTED ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
ONSET AND AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF CWA COULD SEE
SOME SPRINKLES BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKING FOR
APPRECIABLE RAIN TO ENTER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS
OF NORTHERN TEXAS THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN...SOME
MODERATE...HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY OVER MOST
AREAS AND LASTING ON AND OFF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHERE AVERAGE OF AROUND 1 INCH EXPECTED. HOPEFULLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE MORE THAN JUST A SPOTTY OCCURRENCE. AS FAR AS POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW...BOTH THE GFS AND WRF INDICATE VERY SHORT WINDOW OF TIME
FOR CHANGE OVER OR MIX EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPTED TO TAKE OUT
MENTION OF SNOW ALTOGETHER BUT WILL DEFER AND SEE IF THIS MODEL
TREND CONTINUES.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
SURGES SOUTH OVER THE REGION. WITH ANTICIPATION FOR CLEARING
SUNDAY NIGHT...MONDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER COLD WITH MOST
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. FAIRLY QUICK BUT MODEST
WARMUP AHEAD OF ANOTHER RESPECTABLE FRONT MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE
HAVING TROUBLE WITH EVOLUTION OF EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN EASTERN
TROUGH AMPLITUDE. SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE INTRUSION OF MIDWEEK
FRONT. 00Z GEM AND 06Z GFS FASTEST...BRINGING FRONT INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 00Z ECM MUCH SLOWER...BRINGING FRONT
INTO REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WITH LAGGING POST
FRONTAL S/WV THE ECM PRODUCES A SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL NOT BE ADDED
TO FORECAST WITH SUCH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY BUT WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  45  36 /  10  40  80  90
HOBART OK         49  36  43  36 /  10  60  90  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  39  45  39 /  10  30  90 100
GAGE OK           47  34  42  32 /  20  60  70  60
PONCA CITY OK     48  35  44  34 /  10  40  80  90
DURANT OK         55  38  48  40 /  10  10  60  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300947
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
347 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT US OVER THE WEEKEND BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL
NOT BE TOO BAD OF A DAY FOR LATE JANUARY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER SOME OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT.

THE RAIN WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PUSHING EAST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD AREA WIDE AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST OPENS UP AND
MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
PERIOD WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING EARLY SUNDAY BUT A FEW AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE COLDEST AIR AT THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS IT
APPEARS THAT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. A FEW WET MUSHY SNOW FLAKES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF
ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS BY THAT TIME BUT NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST PEOPLE LIVE WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 40 UNTIL THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED.

AFTER A CHILLY DAY MONDAY...A QUICK BUT BRIEF WARMUP WILL TAKE
PLACE TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN FOR THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
REVISITED LATER. A WARMING TREND THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP JUST BEYOND
THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WENT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO
THICKENING CLOUD COVER BUT STAYED CLOSE TO MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
VALUES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  36  46  41 /   0  20  60  90
FSM   54  34  49  41 /   0   0  30  80
MLC   53  36  48  43 /   0  10  40  90
BVO   50  34  45  40 /   0  20  60  90
FYV   52  32  49  40 /   0   0  30  80
BYV   51  31  48  40 /   0   0  30  80
MKO   52  36  47  41 /   0  10  40  90
MIO   50  34  46  40 /   0  10  60  90
F10   52  36  47  42 /   0  10  50  90
HHW   55  36  50  43 /   0  10  30  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE






000
FXUS64 KTSA 300947
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
347 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT US OVER THE WEEKEND BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL
NOT BE TOO BAD OF A DAY FOR LATE JANUARY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER SOME OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT.

THE RAIN WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PUSHING EAST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD AREA WIDE AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST OPENS UP AND
MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
PERIOD WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING EARLY SUNDAY BUT A FEW AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE COLDEST AIR AT THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS IT
APPEARS THAT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. A FEW WET MUSHY SNOW FLAKES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF
ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS BY THAT TIME BUT NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST PEOPLE LIVE WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 40 UNTIL THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED.

AFTER A CHILLY DAY MONDAY...A QUICK BUT BRIEF WARMUP WILL TAKE
PLACE TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN FOR THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
REVISITED LATER. A WARMING TREND THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP JUST BEYOND
THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WENT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO
THICKENING CLOUD COVER BUT STAYED CLOSE TO MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
VALUES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  36  46  41 /   0  20  60  90
FSM   54  34  49  41 /   0   0  30  80
MLC   53  36  48  43 /   0  10  40  90
BVO   50  34  45  40 /   0  20  60  90
FYV   52  32  49  40 /   0   0  30  80
BYV   51  31  48  40 /   0   0  30  80
MKO   52  36  47  41 /   0  10  40  90
MIO   50  34  46  40 /   0  10  60  90
F10   52  36  47  42 /   0  10  50  90
HHW   55  36  50  43 /   0  10  30  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE






000
FXUS64 KTSA 300947
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
347 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT US OVER THE WEEKEND BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL
NOT BE TOO BAD OF A DAY FOR LATE JANUARY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER SOME OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT.

THE RAIN WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PUSHING EAST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD AREA WIDE AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST OPENS UP AND
MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
PERIOD WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING EARLY SUNDAY BUT A FEW AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE COLDEST AIR AT THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS IT
APPEARS THAT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. A FEW WET MUSHY SNOW FLAKES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF
ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS BY THAT TIME BUT NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST PEOPLE LIVE WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 40 UNTIL THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED.

AFTER A CHILLY DAY MONDAY...A QUICK BUT BRIEF WARMUP WILL TAKE
PLACE TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN FOR THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
REVISITED LATER. A WARMING TREND THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP JUST BEYOND
THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WENT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO
THICKENING CLOUD COVER BUT STAYED CLOSE TO MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
VALUES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  36  46  41 /   0  20  60  90
FSM   54  34  49  41 /   0   0  30  80
MLC   53  36  48  43 /   0  10  40  90
BVO   50  34  45  40 /   0  20  60  90
FYV   52  32  49  40 /   0   0  30  80
BYV   51  31  48  40 /   0   0  30  80
MKO   52  36  47  41 /   0  10  40  90
MIO   50  34  46  40 /   0  10  60  90
F10   52  36  47  42 /   0  10  50  90
HHW   55  36  50  43 /   0  10  30  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE






000
FXUS64 KTSA 300947
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
347 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT US OVER THE WEEKEND BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL
NOT BE TOO BAD OF A DAY FOR LATE JANUARY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER SOME OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT.

THE RAIN WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PUSHING EAST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD AREA WIDE AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST OPENS UP AND
MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
PERIOD WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING EARLY SUNDAY BUT A FEW AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE COLDEST AIR AT THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS IT
APPEARS THAT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. A FEW WET MUSHY SNOW FLAKES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF
ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS BY THAT TIME BUT NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST PEOPLE LIVE WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 40 UNTIL THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED.

AFTER A CHILLY DAY MONDAY...A QUICK BUT BRIEF WARMUP WILL TAKE
PLACE TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN FOR THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
REVISITED LATER. A WARMING TREND THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP JUST BEYOND
THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WENT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO
THICKENING CLOUD COVER BUT STAYED CLOSE TO MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
VALUES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  36  46  41 /   0  20  60  90
FSM   54  34  49  41 /   0   0  30  80
MLC   53  36  48  43 /   0  10  40  90
BVO   50  34  45  40 /   0  20  60  90
FYV   52  32  49  40 /   0   0  30  80
BYV   51  31  48  40 /   0   0  30  80
MKO   52  36  47  41 /   0  10  40  90
MIO   50  34  46  40 /   0  10  60  90
F10   52  36  47  42 /   0  10  50  90
HHW   55  36  50  43 /   0  10  30  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE






000
FXUS64 KTSA 300513
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1113 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA AND ALLOW WINDS TO GO LIGHT
BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUD TO LIMIT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS AT A FEW
LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 300513
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1113 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA AND ALLOW WINDS TO GO LIGHT
BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUD TO LIMIT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS AT A FEW
LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 300513
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1113 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA AND ALLOW WINDS TO GO LIGHT
BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUD TO LIMIT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS AT A FEW
LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 300513
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1113 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA AND ALLOW WINDS TO GO LIGHT
BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUD TO LIMIT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS AT A FEW
LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 300326
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
926 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA AND ALLOW WINDS TO GO LIGHT
BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUD TO LIMIT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS AT A FEW
LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   26  48  35  45 /   0   0  20  60
FSM   31  49  35  47 /   0   0  10  40
MLC   29  49  35  47 /   0   0  20  60
BVO   22  46  33  44 /   0   0  30  70
FYV   27  49  32  43 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   27  42  31  41 /   0   0  10  40
MKO   25  49  33  46 /   0   0  20  50
MIO   23  45  33  41 /   0   0  10  60
F10   30  48  35  46 /   0   0  20  70
HHW   33  53  35  46 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 300326
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
926 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA AND ALLOW WINDS TO GO LIGHT
BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUD TO LIMIT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS AT A FEW
LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   26  48  35  45 /   0   0  20  60
FSM   31  49  35  47 /   0   0  10  40
MLC   29  49  35  47 /   0   0  20  60
BVO   22  46  33  44 /   0   0  30  70
FYV   27  49  32  43 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   27  42  31  41 /   0   0  10  40
MKO   25  49  33  46 /   0   0  20  50
MIO   23  45  33  41 /   0   0  10  60
F10   30  48  35  46 /   0   0  20  70
HHW   33  53  35  46 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 300326
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
926 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA AND ALLOW WINDS TO GO LIGHT
BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUD TO LIMIT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS AT A FEW
LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   26  48  35  45 /   0   0  20  60
FSM   31  49  35  47 /   0   0  10  40
MLC   29  49  35  47 /   0   0  20  60
BVO   22  46  33  44 /   0   0  30  70
FYV   27  49  32  43 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   27  42  31  41 /   0   0  10  40
MKO   25  49  33  46 /   0   0  20  50
MIO   23  45  33  41 /   0   0  10  60
F10   30  48  35  46 /   0   0  20  70
HHW   33  53  35  46 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 300326
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
926 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA AND ALLOW WINDS TO GO LIGHT
BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUD TO LIMIT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS AT A FEW
LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   26  48  35  45 /   0   0  20  60
FSM   31  49  35  47 /   0   0  10  40
MLC   29  49  35  47 /   0   0  20  60
BVO   22  46  33  44 /   0   0  30  70
FYV   27  49  32  43 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   27  42  31  41 /   0   0  10  40
MKO   25  49  33  46 /   0   0  20  50
MIO   23  45  33  41 /   0   0  10  60
F10   30  48  35  46 /   0   0  20  70
HHW   33  53  35  46 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07







000
FXUS64 KOUN 292311
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
510 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT
INTO/THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY... BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG GUSTS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTER BEGINNING OF FORECAST AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AS THEY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
TOMORROW. AS THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS EAST TOMORROW...MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ON ITS WESTERN EDGE. THIS WILL BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND
INTO MOST OF OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS FOR THE WEEKEND.

WITH TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...WE DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT AMOUNTS ON
GRASS/TREES MAY OCCUR IN FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER DROP IN
TEMPERATURES...AND CLEARING CONDITIONS. ANY REMAINING SNOW/RAIN
SHOULD END SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...GENERALLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

A SECOND FRONT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...THAT WILL INTERRUPT A
BRIEF WARM-UP...AND MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS. IF RAIN
OCCURS...IT IS MOST LIKELY IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...BUT EVEN THERE
THE CHANCES ARE LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  48  36  43 /   0   0  30  80
HOBART OK         30  48  35  42 /   0  10  50  80
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  50  38  45 /   0  10  40  90
GAGE OK           25  46  32  41 /   0  20  70  70
PONCA CITY OK     25  47  34  43 /   0   0  40  80
DURANT OK         36  52  38  46 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 292311
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
510 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT
INTO/THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY... BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG GUSTS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTER BEGINNING OF FORECAST AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AS THEY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
TOMORROW. AS THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS EAST TOMORROW...MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ON ITS WESTERN EDGE. THIS WILL BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND
INTO MOST OF OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS FOR THE WEEKEND.

WITH TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...WE DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT AMOUNTS ON
GRASS/TREES MAY OCCUR IN FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER DROP IN
TEMPERATURES...AND CLEARING CONDITIONS. ANY REMAINING SNOW/RAIN
SHOULD END SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...GENERALLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

A SECOND FRONT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...THAT WILL INTERRUPT A
BRIEF WARM-UP...AND MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS. IF RAIN
OCCURS...IT IS MOST LIKELY IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...BUT EVEN THERE
THE CHANCES ARE LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  48  36  43 /   0   0  30  80
HOBART OK         30  48  35  42 /   0  10  50  80
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  50  38  45 /   0  10  40  90
GAGE OK           25  46  32  41 /   0  20  70  70
PONCA CITY OK     25  47  34  43 /   0   0  40  80
DURANT OK         36  52  38  46 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 292307
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
507 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SFC WINDS WILL RELAX VERY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY BECOME EAST/SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY MORNING... BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THE CURRENT EXPECTED
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION EARLY SUNDAY.
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 292307
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
507 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SFC WINDS WILL RELAX VERY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY BECOME EAST/SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY MORNING... BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THE CURRENT EXPECTED
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION EARLY SUNDAY.
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 292307
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
507 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SFC WINDS WILL RELAX VERY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY BECOME EAST/SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY MORNING... BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THE CURRENT EXPECTED
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION EARLY SUNDAY.
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 292307
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
507 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SFC WINDS WILL RELAX VERY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY BECOME EAST/SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY MORNING... BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THE CURRENT EXPECTED
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION EARLY SUNDAY.
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 292219
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
419 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY BECOME EAST/SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY MORNING... BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THE CURRENT EXPECTED
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION EARLY SUNDAY.
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  48  37  45 /   0   0  20  60
FSM   31  54  36  47 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   31  52  37  47 /   0   0  20  50
BVO   22  48  34  44 /   0   0  30  70
FYV   27  51  33  43 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   28  47  32  41 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   28  50  35  46 /   0   0  20  50
MIO   25  47  34  42 /   0   0  20  50
HHW   33  54  36  47 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KTSA 292219
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
419 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY BECOME EAST/SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY MORNING... BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THE CURRENT EXPECTED
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION EARLY SUNDAY.
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  48  37  45 /   0   0  20  60
FSM   31  54  36  47 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   31  52  37  47 /   0   0  20  50
BVO   22  48  34  44 /   0   0  30  70
FYV   27  51  33  43 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   28  47  32  41 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   28  50  35  46 /   0   0  20  50
MIO   25  47  34  42 /   0   0  20  50
HHW   33  54  36  47 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 292205
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
405 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
TOMORROW. AS THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS EAST TOMORROW...MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ON ITS WESTERN EDGE. THIS WILL BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND
INTO MOST OF OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS FOR THE WEEKEND.

WITH TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...WE DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT AMOUNTS ON
GRASS/TREES MAY OCCUR IN FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER DROP IN
TEMPERATURES...AND CLEARING CONDITIONS. ANY REMAINING SNOW/RAIN
SHOULD END SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...GENERALLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

A SECOND FRONT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...THAT WILL INTERRUPT A
BRIEF WARM-UP...AND MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS. IF RAIN
OCCURS...IT IS MOST LIKELY IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...BUT EVEN THERE
THE CHANCES ARE LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  48  36  43 /   0   0  30  80
HOBART OK         30  48  35  42 /   0  10  50  80
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  50  38  45 /   0  10  40  90
GAGE OK           25  46  32  41 /   0  20  70  70
PONCA CITY OK     25  47  34  43 /   0   0  40  80
DURANT OK         36  52  38  46 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 292205
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
405 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
TOMORROW. AS THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS EAST TOMORROW...MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ON ITS WESTERN EDGE. THIS WILL BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND
INTO MOST OF OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS FOR THE WEEKEND.

WITH TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...WE DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT AMOUNTS ON
GRASS/TREES MAY OCCUR IN FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER DROP IN
TEMPERATURES...AND CLEARING CONDITIONS. ANY REMAINING SNOW/RAIN
SHOULD END SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...GENERALLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

A SECOND FRONT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...THAT WILL INTERRUPT A
BRIEF WARM-UP...AND MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS. IF RAIN
OCCURS...IT IS MOST LIKELY IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...BUT EVEN THERE
THE CHANCES ARE LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  48  36  43 /   0   0  30  80
HOBART OK         30  48  35  42 /   0  10  50  80
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  50  38  45 /   0  10  40  90
GAGE OK           25  46  32  41 /   0  20  70  70
PONCA CITY OK     25  47  34  43 /   0   0  40  80
DURANT OK         36  52  38  46 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291730
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1130 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOUT 2000-3500 FT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SE...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN/DISSIPATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OR HIGH CLOUDS AT
ALL SITES...ALONG WITH RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WINDS AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT N OVERNIGHT...BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS E...
EXPECT A TURN TO SE LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S ALREADY AT HUGO. THE STRONGER COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTH SO ADDITIONAL HEATING
WILL BE OFFSET BY THIS COLD ADVECTION... BUT MAX TEMPERATURES STILL
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.. ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. HAVE ALSO MADE
UPDATED TO SKY COVER WITH THE STRATUS DECK HAVING MOVED INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR A JAY TO OKEMAH LINE WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER TODAY WHEN COMPARED
TO THE NEAR RECORD HEAT OF YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY
A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE
MID-WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WET WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS AS PACIFIC MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE OVERTAKING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END ON SUNDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL PREDOMINATELY BE RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL OF A WINTRY MIX ENTERS THE
PICTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. RAIN...
SNOW...SLEET AND EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FORECAST WAS MADE USING A BLEND
OF MODELS THAT WAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY TO THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING AND HANGS ON THE PRECIPITATION A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE ECMWF.
EITHER WAY...ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE WILL LIKELY BE MINOR GIVEN
THE RECENT WARM SPELL AND THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENT.

MONDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST MORNING DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT.
KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  27  48  35 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   57  30  55  35 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   58  30  52  35 /   0   0   0  20
BVO   52  21  48  33 /   0   0   0  30
FYV   50  26  51  32 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   48  27  47  31 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   53  27  50  33 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   50  24  47  33 /   0   0   0  10
F10  MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
HHW   63  32  54  35 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291730
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1130 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOUT 2000-3500 FT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SE...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN/DISSIPATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OR HIGH CLOUDS AT
ALL SITES...ALONG WITH RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WINDS AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT N OVERNIGHT...BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS E...
EXPECT A TURN TO SE LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S ALREADY AT HUGO. THE STRONGER COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTH SO ADDITIONAL HEATING
WILL BE OFFSET BY THIS COLD ADVECTION... BUT MAX TEMPERATURES STILL
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.. ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. HAVE ALSO MADE
UPDATED TO SKY COVER WITH THE STRATUS DECK HAVING MOVED INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR A JAY TO OKEMAH LINE WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER TODAY WHEN COMPARED
TO THE NEAR RECORD HEAT OF YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY
A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE
MID-WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WET WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS AS PACIFIC MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE OVERTAKING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END ON SUNDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL PREDOMINATELY BE RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL OF A WINTRY MIX ENTERS THE
PICTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. RAIN...
SNOW...SLEET AND EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FORECAST WAS MADE USING A BLEND
OF MODELS THAT WAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY TO THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING AND HANGS ON THE PRECIPITATION A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE ECMWF.
EITHER WAY...ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE WILL LIKELY BE MINOR GIVEN
THE RECENT WARM SPELL AND THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENT.

MONDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST MORNING DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT.
KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  27  48  35 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   57  30  55  35 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   58  30  52  35 /   0   0   0  20
BVO   52  21  48  33 /   0   0   0  30
FYV   50  26  51  32 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   48  27  47  31 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   53  27  50  33 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   50  24  47  33 /   0   0   0  10
F10  MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
HHW   63  32  54  35 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS64 KOUN 291723
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1123 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 3000 FT WILL AFFECT E
OK...INCLUDING KPNC...FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DECREASE. TOWARD
SUNSET...VERTICAL MIXING WILL ALSO DIMINISH...LEAVING LIGHT N
BREEZES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY TO NE BY MORNING...AND
FURTHER VEERING TO E OR SE IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT...HOWEVER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COOLER AIR AND BRISK NORTH WINDS HAVE ARRIVED IN OKLAHOMA/NORTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES TODAY.

THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING ARE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND RELATED ELEMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LATEST TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION IN KPNC WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. BREEZY WINDS TODAY WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING LATER THIS
AFTN AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE COOL DOWN BEGINS TODAY WITH HIGHS 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY. BREEZY N TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BUT WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH SETTLES INTO
THE REGION. THE COOLER TEMPS CONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS CA AND AZ INTO MEXICO FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FA STARTING FRIDAY AFTN IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AND SPREADING ACROSS THE FA. CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE
PREDOMINATE OVER THE AREA EXCEPT FOR MAYBE PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OK
WHERE WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WINTER PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR TO THE AREA. WHEN/WHERE/HOW
MUCH/WHAT WINTER PRECIP WILL OCCUR IS DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THIS COLD AIR AT THE SFC AND THE TIMING/PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE THIS
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING COLDER AIR ALOFT. CURRENTLY THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THESE CONDITIONS FOR THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WITH THE GFS
THE QUICKEST WITH THE FRONT AND HAS THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE
FURTHER SOUTHWEST WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTER
PRECIP. HOWEVER... WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF
NORTHERN OK. OTHERWISE... DECENT RAINFALL WILL AFFECT THE FA WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA.

AFTER THE WEEKEND... THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  29  48  36 /   0   0   0  40
HOBART OK         56  30  48  35 /   0   0  10  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  33  50  38 /   0   0  10  40
GAGE OK           53  25  46  32 /   0   0  20  70
PONCA CITY OK     51  25  47  34 /   0   0   0  40
DURANT OK         61  36  52  38 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/23/23



000
FXUS64 KTSA 291628
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1028 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S ALREADY AT HUGO. THE STRONGER COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTH SO ADDITIONAL HEATING
WILL BE OFFSET BY THIS COLD ADVECTION... BUT MAX TEMPERATURES STILL
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.. ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. HAVE ALSO MADE
UPDATED TO SKY COVER WITH THE STRATUS DECK HAVING MOVED INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR A JAY TO OKEMAH LINE WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER TODAY WHEN COMPARED
TO THE NEAR RECORD HEAT OF YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY
A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE
MID-WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WET WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS AS PACIFIC MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE OVERTAKING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END ON SUNDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL PREDOMINATELY BE RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL OF A WINTRY MIX ENTERS THE
PICTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. RAIN...
SNOW...SLEET AND EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FORECAST WAS MADE USING A BLEND
OF MODELS THAT WAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY TO THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING AND HANGS ON THE PRECIPITATION A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE ECMWF.
EITHER WAY...ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE WILL LIKELY BE MINOR GIVEN
THE RECENT WARM SPELL AND THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENT.

MONDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST MORNING DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT.
KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  27  48  35 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   57  30  55  35 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   58  30  52  35 /   0   0   0  20
BVO   52  21  48  33 /   0   0   0  30
FYV   50  26  51  32 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   48  27  47  31 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   53  27  50  33 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   50  24  47  33 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   63  32  54  35 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291628
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1028 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S ALREADY AT HUGO. THE STRONGER COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTH SO ADDITIONAL HEATING
WILL BE OFFSET BY THIS COLD ADVECTION... BUT MAX TEMPERATURES STILL
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.. ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. HAVE ALSO MADE
UPDATED TO SKY COVER WITH THE STRATUS DECK HAVING MOVED INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR A JAY TO OKEMAH LINE WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER TODAY WHEN COMPARED
TO THE NEAR RECORD HEAT OF YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY
A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE
MID-WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WET WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS AS PACIFIC MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE OVERTAKING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END ON SUNDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL PREDOMINATELY BE RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL OF A WINTRY MIX ENTERS THE
PICTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. RAIN...
SNOW...SLEET AND EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FORECAST WAS MADE USING A BLEND
OF MODELS THAT WAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY TO THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING AND HANGS ON THE PRECIPITATION A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE ECMWF.
EITHER WAY...ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE WILL LIKELY BE MINOR GIVEN
THE RECENT WARM SPELL AND THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENT.

MONDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST MORNING DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT.
KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  27  48  35 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   57  30  55  35 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   58  30  52  35 /   0   0   0  20
BVO   52  21  48  33 /   0   0   0  30
FYV   50  26  51  32 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   48  27  47  31 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   53  27  50  33 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   50  24  47  33 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   63  32  54  35 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291622
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1022 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COOLER AIR AND BRISK NORTH WINDS HAVE ARRIVED IN OKLAHOMA/NORTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES TODAY.

THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING ARE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND RELATED ELEMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION IN KPNC WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. BREEZY WINDS TODAY WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING LATER THIS
AFTN AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE COOL DOWN BEGINS TODAY WITH HIGHS 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY. BREEZY N TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BUT WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH SETTLES INTO
THE REGION. THE COOLER TEMPS CONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS CA AND AZ INTO MEXICO FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FA STARTING FRIDAY AFTN IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AND SPREADING ACROSS THE FA. CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE
PREDOMINATE OVER THE AREA EXCEPT FOR MAYBE PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OK
WHERE WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WINTER PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR TO THE AREA. WHEN/WHERE/HOW
MUCH/WHAT WINTER PRECIP WILL OCCUR IS DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THIS COLD AIR AT THE SFC AND THE TIMING/PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE THIS
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING COLDER AIR ALOFT. CURRENTLY THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THESE CONDITIONS FOR THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WITH THE GFS
THE QUICKEST WITH THE FRONT AND HAS THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE
FURTHER SOUTHWEST WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTER
PRECIP. HOWEVER... WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF
NORTHERN OK. OTHERWISE... DECENT RAINFALL WILL AFFECT THE FA WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA.

AFTER THE WEEKEND... THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  29  48  36 /   0   0   0  40
HOBART OK         56  30  48  35 /   0   0  10  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  33  50  38 /   0   0  10  40
GAGE OK           53  25  46  32 /   0   0  20  70
PONCA CITY OK     51  25  47  34 /   0   0   0  40
DURANT OK         61  36  52  38 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/23



000
FXUS64 KOUN 291622
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1022 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COOLER AIR AND BRISK NORTH WINDS HAVE ARRIVED IN OKLAHOMA/NORTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES TODAY.

THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING ARE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND RELATED ELEMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION IN KPNC WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. BREEZY WINDS TODAY WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING LATER THIS
AFTN AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE COOL DOWN BEGINS TODAY WITH HIGHS 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY. BREEZY N TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BUT WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH SETTLES INTO
THE REGION. THE COOLER TEMPS CONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS CA AND AZ INTO MEXICO FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FA STARTING FRIDAY AFTN IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AND SPREADING ACROSS THE FA. CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE
PREDOMINATE OVER THE AREA EXCEPT FOR MAYBE PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OK
WHERE WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WINTER PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR TO THE AREA. WHEN/WHERE/HOW
MUCH/WHAT WINTER PRECIP WILL OCCUR IS DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THIS COLD AIR AT THE SFC AND THE TIMING/PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE THIS
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING COLDER AIR ALOFT. CURRENTLY THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THESE CONDITIONS FOR THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WITH THE GFS
THE QUICKEST WITH THE FRONT AND HAS THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE
FURTHER SOUTHWEST WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTER
PRECIP. HOWEVER... WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF
NORTHERN OK. OTHERWISE... DECENT RAINFALL WILL AFFECT THE FA WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA.

AFTER THE WEEKEND... THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  29  48  36 /   0   0   0  40
HOBART OK         56  30  48  35 /   0   0  10  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  33  50  38 /   0   0  10  40
GAGE OK           53  25  46  32 /   0   0  20  70
PONCA CITY OK     51  25  47  34 /   0   0   0  40
DURANT OK         61  36  52  38 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/23




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