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000
FXUS64 KTSA 241106
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
606 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will be increasing later this
morning into the afternoon with another increase in chances late
tonight. In general, VFR conditions will prevail through the
period, except with more significant thunderstorms which could
lead to brief IFR conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
00z RAOBs across the Southern Plains sampled seasonably high
values of low level moisture while also recording a broad fetch of
steep mid level lapse rates. The result being a broad zone of
strong instability which, when weakly capped amidst subtle
forcing, often causes issues within numerical models. This pattern
has been, and will continue to be, in play through the forecast
period.

Focus for today is ongoing small MCS ongoing over south central OK
which may spread into SE OK later this morning. Also extensive
convection has been maintained across NW KS with veered 50kt low
level jet fueling continued generation along the southwestern
flank. This complex is the larger short term concern as numerous
CAM solutions either sustain the ongoing convection southeastward
or push a remnant outflow boundary into NE OK today. Either
scenario would provide a focus for additional storms to develop in
the aforementioned weakly capped and unstable airmass and pose a
severe weather risk. This scenario contains plenty of uncertainty
but enough data support the potential to raise precip chances
today.

Storm will also form west of the area on the dryline this
afternoon and attempt to spread eastward into E OK this evening
and/or overnight. How far east and to what intensity level largely
depends on how convection evolves during the day.

Wednesday continues to appear as the day with the least amount of
storm coverage. A stronger wave is still on track to influx the
Southern Plains Thursday through Friday. Numerous rounds of severe
storms look likely across the Plains beginning Thurs afternoon
and likely continuing Thursday night into Friday. Thunderstorm
chances will be maintained through next weekend as the pattern
remains unsettled.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  71  87  72 /  60  40  20  20
FSM   82  70  85  72 /  60  30  20  20
MLC   80  72  83  73 /  60  50  20  20
BVO   80  68  87  69 /  60  40  20  20
FYV   77  67  82  69 /  60  30  20  20
BYV   78  67  82  69 /  60  30  20  20
MKO   80  69  83  71 /  60  50  20  20
MIO   78  69  84  69 /  60  40  20  20
F10   81  71  83  71 /  60  50  20  20
HHW   81  71  84  71 /  40  50  20  20

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14



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000
FXUS64 KOUN 232331
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
631 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR ceilings will be possible again tonight in parts of the
area. Showers/storms could affect parts of the area later this
evening into Tuesday morning. Lots of uncertainty if or where this
will happen but the best chance seems to be in parts of southwest
OK and western north TX. Additional thunderstorm development will
be possible Tuesday afternoon/evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 208 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Taking it one day at a time... the primary forecast focus for this
discussion will be on the development of strong to severe
thunderstorms across western Oklahoma and western north Texas late
this afternoon and evening.

Currently, from 18z surface analysis, a portion of the dryline has
surged well east of the Caprock, almost following a path up the Palo
Duro Canyon region. 18Z obs from Pampa has a dew point of 51 F,
while West Texas Mesonet ob from Memphis has 70 F. Ahead of the
dryline, scattered to broken low level stratus continues to linger,
but breaks in coverage continue to reveal themselves and surface
temperatures from western Oklahoma into western north Texas have
climbed into the upper 70s to lower 80s already. Additionally,
isolated strong thunderstorms continue to crop up within the warm
moist sector across southern Oklahoma and north central Oklahoma.
Given the instability, a few of these early afternoon storms, pre
dryline, could be strong to marginally severe.

Moving forward through the mid to late afternoon, a decent short
wave lifting across northern New Mexico at present, will aid in
helping the dryline mix farther east into western north Texas and
near the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle border. Instability has continued
to increase, with a narrow ribbon of 2500 to 3000 J/Kg MLCAPE
building just ahead and east of the dryline, along with a wider area
of 1500 to 2500 J/Kg across the remainder of western Oklahoma and
western north Texas. Mid-level wind support is not overly
impressive across the region, given no significant outside forcing
beyond the dryline. 700mb winds are only about 20 kts. This has
resulted in modest deep layer shear of 30 to 35 kts on average.
Still, paired with the available instability, this should be enough
to support rotating updrafts and large hail development, up to the
size of tennis balls with the initial convection expected to fire on
the dryline later this afternoon. Low level wind shear is weak, and
will remain so until the low level jet begins to increase after
24/00z. With southerly 850mb winds increasing and sufficient
southerly surface flow maintaining ahead of the dryline into the
evening, 0-1km shear values will increase within an window of time
after 00z across western north Texas into southwestern Oklahoma,
with values approaching 20kts. Although still not overly
impressive,resulting in 0-1 km SRH values nearing 200 S^2/H^2,
paired with any strong updrafts, a few tornadoes cannot be ruled
out.

Farther to the north this afternoon and evening, the northern push
of the dryline into northwestern Oklahoma will be another place to
watch for storm development. Surface analysis reveals a surface low
centered over southwestern Kansas, just north of the Oklahoma
Panhandle. Situated near the northern edge of the instability axis
and associated frontal boundary, there is enough support for a few
storms to develop capable of large hail development.

Overnight, conditions are shaping up to be similar to Sunday
night/Monday morning. Storms over the southern Texas Panhandle,
west/southwest Oklahoma, and western north Texas will merge through
the late evening, laying down a decent cold pool, which will aid in
propagation of storms east and southeastward across southern
Oklahoma and western north Texas. The big concern with this
evolution overnight will be flooding. After persistent heavy
rainfall last night and this morning over the same area, additional
slow storm movement and efficient rain production tonight, flooding
concerns are obviously heightened and a flood watch remains in
effect. We have no plans of expanding the current watch that was
issued by the night shift as the location and timing look spot on
(hat tip to Ryan and Bruce).

For the reminder of the week, thunderstorm chances will continue
near daily, with the best chances for strong to severe thunderstorm
tomorrow (Tuesday), Thursday, and Friday. Once again, the dryline
will redevelop across the eastern portions of the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles Tuesday. Expect enough atmospheric recovery to generate
severe storms, capable of large damaging hail, damaging wind gusts,
and a low possibility of tornadoes with the strongest updrafts. Once
again, storms will be slow moving and could pose a flooding threat
once again depending on residence time and their rainfall rates,
which should be decent. Wednesday appears to be a down day, with
only a slight chance of thunderstorms across the region. Thursday
will have influence from an evolving 500mb shortwave that will be
digging across the Four Corners region Wednesday night into
Thursday. Into the afternoon, the dryline will strengthen over the
eastern Panhandles and surge into western Oklahoma through the late
afternoon, under the influence from an advancing surface trough off
the Colorado high plains. Stout deep layer shear and sufficient
instability will promote supercellular development along the dryline
in western Oklahoma. Large damaging hail, damaging wind gusts, and
tornadoes are possible. Friday`s setup is much less impressive at
the moment than Thursday, but thunderstorms will be possible again
as the surface front pushes into northwest Oklahoma and a weaker
dryline mixes near I-44 in southwestern Oklahoma. The shear
environment is less favorable, but a few strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible, with hail the primary concern at
this time.

Stay safe this week and keep up to date with the latest forecasts.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  82  68  87 /  40  20  40  10
Hobart OK         68  85  69  91 /  50  40  30  10
Wichita Falls TX  69  86  71  90 /  70  40  30  10
Gage OK           66  89  63  93 /  40  30  20  10
Ponca City OK     68  82  69  88 /  40  30  40  20
Durant OK         69  82  70  84 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ021>023-027-033>039-
     044-045.

TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

11/25/25




000
FXUS64 KTSA 231747
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1247 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to persist across Osage County
this afternoon as a 35kt low level jet continues to funnel into
that area. The MCV continue across northeast Oklahoma with the
majority of the convection associated with this feature fading.
Have adjusted the pops and temperatures for this afternoon with
the cloud cover expected to keep temperatures a few degree lower.


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10




000
FXUS64 KOUN 231705 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1205 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.AVIATION...23/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
Tricky aviation forecast over the next several hours. Broken to
overcast MVFR ceilings will continue to impact airfields and TAF
sites across portions of central and southern Oklahoma through the
mid to late afternoon. Across western Oklahoma and western north
Texas, scattered to broken MVFR ceilings will continue to improve
to VFR through the afternoon. The biggest concern for aviation
will be thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening
across portions of western Oklahoma and western north Texas.
Confidence in timing and coverage has increased for TAF sites
across the southwest, including KCSM/KHBR/KLAW/KSPS. Therefore,
utilized TEMPO groups, after 00Z for most. Expect a complex of
storms to develop similar to last night, primarily impacting
southern Oklahoma and northern Texas overnight.

Kurtz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 928 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

UPDATE...
Quick morning update to thunderstorm chances through this
evening.

DISCUSSION...
Jumping on the forecast early this morning given the chance for
severe storms developing on/just east of the Caprock and moving
into far western north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma late this
Afternoon and evening. Guidance, both traditional and mesoscale,
are in decent agreement with the redevelopment of the dryline on
the Llano Estacado and its mixing eastward through the mid
afternoon across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Dew points
across the Panhandles to central Oklahoma continue to reside in
the low to mid 60s, with sites farther south in western north
Texas already reaching the upper 60s to near 70s. the MCS that
moved across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas overnight has
had some impact, but recovery is already well underway farther
west. The fly in the ointment at the moment is the broken to
overcast stratus spread across the area. In western Oklahoma,
breaks have been fairly evident, and temperatures are already in
the upper 60s and lower 70s. Agree with the night shift and with
latest SPC outlook, some form of a triple point will develop
south/southwest of the Red River, east of the Caprock this
afternoon. Solutions from the HRRRx and TTU WRF continue to pick
this as the primary initiation point. The operational HRRR and
traditional guidance continue to fire convection along a surging
point in the dryline early this afternoon in northwestern
Oklahoma/southwestern Kansas. This is likely overdone given the
current conditions, overcast skies, limiting heating this morning.
However, isolated thunderstorms may develop in the region, but
probably not as widespread as some of the solutions attempt.

Therefore, increased precip chances to likelys across southern
Oklahoma and western north Texas from late this afternoon through
the evening and into the overnight hours. Confidence is high for
storm development and and increase from chance PoPs was necessary.
Not to rehash the previous discussion, but instability and shear
will be plenty enough for the development of large damaging hail,
damaging winds, and the possibility of a few tornadoes.

Of greater concern for many will be the potential for flooding
overnight, especially across portions of southern Oklahoma and
northern Texas where excessive rainfall fell last night and this
morning. Once again, this afternoon`s storms are expected to merge
into a complex and propagate eastward overnight, slowly. A flood
watch is in effect for this region and may need to be extended,
but this will be addressed with the afternoon forecast.

Kurtz

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 850 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

UPDATE...
Updated pops and slowed diurnal warming trend this morning.

DISCUSSION...
Showers/storms continue to move east with a new area of storms
that developed just east of OKC/Norman. Have updated short-term
pops with the latest trends in radar and satellite. HRRR/RAP and
various hi-res models show redevelopment before 18z across
northwest and central Oklahoma so have adjusted late morning pops
to account for this possibility. And made significant changes to
the hourly temperatures and dewpoints given the cloud cover will
keep temperatures cooler this morning and the post-convective
worked over airmass keeping dewpoints lower. Still expect we will
see eventual recovery to forecast highs, but it will likely take
some time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 659 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
A few thunderstorms remain near SPS and OKC/OUN early this
morning, and may continue for a couple more hours. Otherwise,
expect MVFR cigs to return late this morning for a few terminals
before becoming VFR by this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected again tonight, mainly after 00Z. Confidence in timing
is not exceptional, however, so expect some amendments/changes to
future TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An MCS continues its track across southern OK and north TX early
this morning. Very heavy rainfall and damaging winds accompanied
it earlier, and are still expected across southern OK through the
early morning hours. Most of this activity should move out of our
area near or before sunrise. Later this afternoon storms will
initiate along the dryline again from the southeastern TX
panhandle into western and northwestern OK, and move east during
the evening hours. Supercells will be likely, with ALL severe
weather threats possible. The highest rainfall totals are again
expected over western and southwestern OK, and western north TX.
These areas already received a significant amount of rainfall this
morning so we have decided to issue a Flood Watch thru early Wed
AM.

The overall forecast has changed very little for the work week.
The severe threat will continue to shift slowly east each day
with the dryline and approaching upper trough. The tornado threat
should also increase during the late afternoon and early evening
hours with the onset of the LLJ, especially across western and
southwestern OK by Tue. There may be a break in COVERAGE Wednesday with
surface convergence becoming a bit more diffuse along the
dryline. However, if any isolated supercells can manage to develop
they will again be capable of producing ALL severe weather
threats.

By Thursday, a southern stream mid to upper level shortwave trough
is expected to lift over northeast TX and into SE OK around mid
day. Heavy rainfall and embedded supercells will be possible with
this activity. Further west, the upper trough will begin to near
the southern plains with rapid height falls and increasing mid to
upper flow expected over the dryline across western OK.
Widespread severe weather continues to appear possible thru
Thursday night, including the threat of tornadoes. Finally, by
Friday, the upper trough will being to lift northeastward but will
not pass overhead until late Friday night. Additional severe
weather will remain possible from along/just west of I35 through
eastern OK.

Additional storm chances are expected through the weekend and into
early next week as another upper trough moves over the western
CONUS and WSW flow aloft ahead of it continues over the Southern
Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  67  83  68  86 /  50  20  50  20
Hobart OK         68  87  69  90 /  60  50  40  20
Wichita Falls TX  69  87  71  90 /  70  30  30  20
Gage OK           67  91  64  93 /  40  20  30  10
Ponca City OK     68  83  69  88 /  40  30  50  20
Durant OK         70  83  70  84 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flood Watch from 3 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday
     morning for OKZ021>023-027-033>039-044-045.

TX...Flood Watch from 3 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday
     morning for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

09/04/04




000
FXUS64 KTSA 231428
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
928 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The Overnight MCS across southern OKlahoma and northern Texas
has left an MCV over northeast Oklahoma this morning. This feature
will continue to have convection associated with it for the next
several hours as it moves off to the northeast with adequate elevated
instability in place. The convection may become a little more concentrated
around the MCV with the activity further south diminishing. Have made
some adjustment to the pops for Today to take this into account.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ongoing convection now entering eastern OK will continue to spread
eastward through the morning. The most likely aviation impact will
be across SE OK nearer the stronger storms. Thinking is that once
this convection dissipates then any redevelopment will be most
likely west of the area with storms possibly spreading into the
area early Tuesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The synoptic features from yesterday remain largely in play and
nearly in the same locations early this morning. The one
exception is that the ridge of high pressure has shifted east
southeast some...becoming more positively tilted as the longwave
trof settled over the Desert Southwest United States. Also this
morning...the dryline off the surface low over Eastern Colorado
continued to extend southward into far Eastern New Mexico.
Scattered convection that had developed yesterday along the
dryline had formed into a MCS across Southern Oklahoma...
approaching Southeast Oklahoma over the next couple of hours.
Across the rest of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...
cloudy conditions with east to southeasterly winds were common.

The MCS will continue to push eastward into/across Southeast
Oklahoma this morning and potentially spreading into Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon. An instability
axis remained just west of the CWA this morning...which could help
to weaken the overall intensity of the MCS...however gusty to
locally damaging winds could be possible with this activity.
Also...additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across the CWA through this evening as any leftover outflow
boundaries from the morning activity remain over the region.
Breezy southerly winds transporting moisture back into the region
combined with near seasonal average temperatures underneath a
destabilizing atmosphere could allow for any thunderstorm activity
through this evening to become strong to severe with large hail
and locally damaging winds being the main threats. The greater
severe potential though should remain west of the CWA...closer to
the dryline.

Also this afternoon...additional convection is expected to fire
along/near the dryline again...which will have the potential to
cluster together into another MCS and move into the CWA overnight
tonight. The instability axis overnight tonight looks to be a
little more eastward than where it is this morning. This will aid
in a continued severe potential overnight tonight over the
CWA...with locally damaging winds being possible.

Tuesday through Thursday...the longwave trof is forecast to stall
over the Southwest United States with west to southwesterly upper
level flow over the Plains. Weak impulses within this flow moving
across the Plains along with the dryline remaining over Western
Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles will give a "rinse-wash-
repeat" for thunderstorm chances each day over the CWA. Any
convection along the dryline could form into an MCS at night and
approach/move into the region...with additional daytime
thunderstorm chances as the weak impulses interact with any
leftover outflow boundaries. These conditions along with a
continued unstable atmosphere will allow at least limited severe
potentials through Thursday over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas.

Latest model solutions continue to show the wave over the
Southwest United States finally lifting into the Plains
Friday...thus increasing thunderstorm chances again for the CWA.
Indications are that the wave could possibly move into the region
during the morning hours which could help to limit severe
potential...though with this several days away...will continue to
monitor latest data as this set up could likely change back-and-
forth several times. For the upcoming weekend...thunderstorm
chances will continue to be possible as another wave looks to
quickly develop and lift out of the Southwest United States into
the Plains.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10




000
FXUS64 KOUN 231428 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
928 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Quick morning update to thunderstorm chances through this
evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Jumping on the forecast early this morning given the chance for
severe storms developing on/just east of the Caprock and moving
into far western north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma late this
Afternoon and evening. Guidance, both traditional and mesoscale,
are in decent agreement with the redevelopment of the dryline on
the Llano Estacado and its mixing eastward through the mid
afternoon across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Dew points
across the Panhandles to central Oklahoma continue to reside in
the low to mid 60s, with sites farther south in western north
Texas already reaching the upper 60s to near 70s. the MCS that
moved across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas overnight has
had some impact, but recovery is already well underway farther
west. The fly in the ointment at the moment is the broken to
overcast stratus spread across the area. In western Oklahoma,
breaks have been farily evident, and temperatures are already in
the upper 60s and lower 70s. Agree with the night shift and with
latest SPC outlook, some form of a triple point will develop
south/southeast of the Red River, east of the Caprock this
afternoon. Solutions from the HRRRx and TTU WRF continue to pick
this as the primary initiation point. The operational HRRR and
traditional guidance continue to fire convection along a surging
point in the dryline early this afternoon in northwestern
Oklahoma/southwestern Kansas. This is likely overdone given the
current conditions, overcast skies, limiting heating this morning.
However, isolated thunderstorms may develop in the region, but
probably not as widespread as some of the solutions attempt.

Therefore, increased precip chances to likelys across southern
Oklahoma and western north Texas from late this afternoon through
the evening and into the overnight hours. Confidence is high for
storm development and and increase from chance PoPs was necessary.
Not to rehash the previous discussion, but instability and shear
will be plenty enough for the development of large damaging hail,
damaging winds, and the possiblity of a few tornadoes.

Of greater concern for many will be the potential for flooding
overnight, espcecially across portions of southern Oklahoma and
northern Texas where excessive rainfall fell last night and this
morning. Once again, this afternoon`s storms are expected to merge
into a complex and propogate eastward overnight, slowly. A flood
watch is in effect for this region and may need to be extended, but
this will be addressed with the afternoon forecast.

Kurtz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 850 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

UPDATE...
Updated pops and slowed diurnal warming trend this morning.

DISCUSSION...
Showers/storms continue to move east with a new area of storms
that developed just east of OKC/Norman. Have updated short-term
pops with the latest trends in radar and satellite. HRRR/RAP and
various hi-res models show redevelopment before 18z across
northwest and central Oklahoma so have adjusted late morning pops
to account for this possibility. And made significant changes to
the hourly temperatures and dewpoints given the cloud cover will
keep temperatures cooler this morning and the post-convective
worked over airmass keeping dewpoints lower. Still expect we will
see eventual recovery to forecast highs, but it will likely take
some time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 659 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
A few thunderstorms remain near SPS and OKC/OUN early this
morning, and may continue for a couple more hours. Otherwise,
expect MVFR cigs to return late this morning for a few terminals
before becoming VFR by this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected again tonight, mainly after 00Z. Confidence in timing
is not exceptional, however, so expect some amendments/changes to
future TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An MCS continues its track across southern OK and north TX early
this morning. Very heavy rainfall and damaging winds accompanied
it earlier, and are still expected across southern OK through the
early morning hours. Most of this activity should move out of our
area near or before sunrise. Later this afternoon storms will
initiate along the dryline again from the southeastern TX
panhandle into western and northwestern OK, and move east during
the evening hours. Supercells will be likely, with ALL severe
weather threats possible. The highest rainfall totals are again
expected over western and southwestern OK, and western north TX.
These areas already received a significant amount of rainfall this
morning so we have decided to issue a Flood Watch thru early Wed
AM.

The overall forecast has changed very little for the work week.
The severe threat will continue to shift slowly east each day
with the dryline and approaching upper trough. The tornado threat
should also increase during the late afternoon and early evening
hours with the onset of the LLJ, especially across western and
southwestern OK by Tue. There may be a break in COVERAGE Wednesday with
surface convergence becoming a bit more diffuse along the
dryline. However, if any isolated supercells can manage to develop
they will again be capable of producing ALL severe weather
threats.

By Thursday, a southern stream mid to upper level shortwave trough
is expected to lift over northeast TX and into SE OK around mid
day. Heavy rainfall and embedded supercells will be possible with
this activity. Further west, the upper trough will begin to near
the southern plains with rapid height falls and increasing mid to
upper flow expected over the dryline across western OK.
Widespread severe weather continues to appear possible thru
Thursday night, including the threat of tornadoes. Finally, by
Friday, the upper trough will being to lift northeastward but will
not pass overhead until late Friday night. Additional severe
weather will remain possible from along/just west of I35 through
eastern OK.

Additional storm chances are expected through the weekend and into
early next week as another upper trough moves over the western
CONUS and WSW flow aloft ahead of it continues over the Southern
Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  67  83  68 /  30  50  20  50
Hobart OK         83  68  87  69 /  40  60  50  40
Wichita Falls TX  84  69  87  71 /  20  70  30  30
Gage OK           89  67  91  64 /  30  40  20  30
Ponca City OK     81  68  83  69 /  40  40  30  50
Durant OK         83  70  83  70 /  80  50  30  40

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flood Watch from 3 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday
     morning for OKZ021>023-027-033>039-044-045.

TX...Flood Watch from 3 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday
     morning for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

09/04




000
FXUS64 KOUN 231350
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
850 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated pops and slowed diurnal warming trend this morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers/storms continue to move east with a new area of storms
that developed just east of OKC/Norman. Have updated short-term
pops with the latest trends in radar and satellite. HRRR/RAP and
various hi-res models show redevelopment before 18z across
northwest and central Oklahoma so have adjusted late morning pops
to account for this possibility. And made significant changes to
the hourly temperatures and dewpoints given the cloud cover will
keep temperatures cooler this morning and the post-convective
worked over airmass keeping dewpoints lower. Still expect we will
see eventual recovery to forecast highs, but it will likely take
some time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 659 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
A few thunderstorms remain near SPS and OKC/OUN early this
morning, and may continue for a couple more hours. Otherwise,
expect MVFR cigs to return late this morning for a few terminals
before becoming VFR by this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected again tonight, mainly after 00Z. Confidence in timing
is not exceptional, however, so expect some amendments/changes to
future TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An MCS continues its track across southern OK and north TX early
this morning. Very heavy rainfall and damaging winds accompanied
it earlier, and are still expected across southern OK through the
early morning hours. Most of this activity should move out of our
area near or before sunrise. Later this afternoon storms will
initiate along the dryline again from the southeastern TX
panhandle into western and northwestern OK, and move east during
the evening hours. Supercells will be likely, with ALL severe
weather threats possible. The highest rainfall totals are again
expected over western and southwestern OK, and western north TX.
These areas already received a significant amount of rainfall this
morning so we have decided to issue a Flood Watch thru early Wed
AM.

The overall forecast has changed very little for the work week.
The severe threat will continue to shift slowly east each day
with the dryline and approaching upper trough. The tornado threat
should also increase during the late afternoon and early evening
hours with the onset of the LLJ, especially across western and
southwestern OK by Tue. There may be a break in COVERAGE Wednesday with
surface convergence becoming a bit more diffuse along the
dryline. However, if any isolated supercells can manage to develop
they will again be capable of producing ALL severe weather
threats.

By Thursday, a southern stream mid to upper level shortwave trough
is expected to lift over northeast TX and into SE OK around mid
day. Heavy rainfall and embedded supercells will be possible with
this activity. Further west, the upper trough will begin to near
the southern plains with rapid height falls and increasing mid to
upper flow expected over the dryline across western OK.
Widespread severe weather continues to appear possible thru
Thursday night, including the threat of tornadoes. Finally, by
Friday, the upper trough will being to lift northeastward but will
not pass overhead until late Friday night. Additional severe
weather will remain possible from along/just west of I35 through
eastern OK.

Additional storm chances are expected through the weekend and into
early next week as another upper trough moves over the western
CONUS and WSW flow aloft ahead of it continues over the Southern
Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  67  83  68 /  30  40  20  50
Hobart OK         83  68  87  69 /  20  50  50  40
Wichita Falls TX  84  69  87  71 /  20  50  30  30
Gage OK           89  67  91  64 /  30  40  20  30
Ponca City OK     81  68  83  69 /  40  40  20  50
Durant OK         83  70  83  70 /  80  50  20  40

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flood Watch from 3 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday
     morning for OKZ021>023-027-033>039-044-045.

TX...Flood Watch from 3 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday
     morning for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 231159
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
659 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few thunderstorms remain near SPS and OKC/OUN early this
morning, and may continue for a couple more hours. Otherwise,
expect MVFR cigs to return late this morning for a few terminals
before becoming VFR by this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected again tonight, mainly after 00Z. Confidence in timing
is not exceptional, however, so expect some amendments/changes to
future TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An MCS continues its track across southern OK and north TX early
this morning. Very heavy rainfall and damaging winds accompanied
it earlier, and are still expected across southern OK through the
early morning hours. Most of this activity should move out of our
area near or before sunrise. Later this afternoon storms will
initiate along the dryline again from the southeastern TX
panhandle into western and northwestern OK, and move east during
the evening hours. Supercells will be likely, with ALL severe
weather threats possible. The highest rainfall totals are again
expected over western and southwestern OK, and western north TX.
These areas already received a significant amount of rainfall this
morning so we have decided to issue a Flood Watch thru early Wed
AM.

The overall forecast has changed very little for the work week.
The severe threat will continue to shift slowly east each day
with the dryline and approaching upper trough. The tornado threat
should also increase during the late afternoon and early evening
hours with the onset of the LLJ, especially across western and
southwestern OK by Tue. There may be a break in COVERAGE Wednesday with
surface convergence becoming a bit more diffuse along the
dryline. However, if any isolated supercells can manage to develop
they will again be capable of producing ALL severe weather
threats.

By Thursday, a southern stream mid to upper level shortwave trough
is expected to lift over northeast TX and into SE OK around mid
day. Heavy rainfall and embedded supercells will be possible with
this activity. Further west, the upper trough will begin to near
the southern plains with rapid height falls and increasing mid to
upper flow expected over the dryline across western OK.
Widespread severe weather continues to appear possible thru
Thursday night, including the threat of tornadoes. Finally, by
Friday, the upper trough will being to lift northeastward but will
not pass overhead until late Friday night. Additional severe
weather will remain possible from along/just west of I35 through
eastern OK.

Additional storm chances are expected through the weekend and into
early next week as another upper trough moves over the western
CONUS and WSW flow aloft ahead of it continues over the Southern
Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  67  83  68 /  30  40  20  50
Hobart OK         83  68  87  69 /  30  50  50  40
Wichita Falls TX  84  69  87  71 /  30  50  30  30
Gage OK           89  67  91  64 /  30  40  20  30
Ponca City OK     81  68  83  69 /  60  40  20  50
Durant OK         83  70  83  70 /  80  50  20  40

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flood Watch from 3 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday
     morning for OKZ021>023-027-033>039-044-045.

TX...Flood Watch from 3 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday
     morning for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

06/03/03




000
FXUS64 KTSA 230935
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
435 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The synoptic features from yesterday remain largely in play and
nearly in the same locations early this morning. The one
exception is that the ridge of high pressure has shifted east
southeast some...becoming more positively tilted as the longwave
trof settled over the Desert Southwest United States. Also this
morning...the dryline off the surface low over Eastern Colorado
continued to extend southward into far Eastern New Mexico.
Scattered convection that had developed yesterday along the
dryline had formed into a MCS across Southern Oklahoma...
approaching Southeast Oklahoma over the next couple of hours.
Across the rest of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...
cloudy conditions with east to southeasterly winds were common.

The MCS will continue to push eastward into/across Southeast
Oklahoma this morning and potentially spreading into Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon. An instability
axis remained just west of the CWA this morning...which could help
to weaken the overall intensity of the MCS...however gusty to
locally damaging winds could be possible with this activity.
Also...additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across the CWA through this evening as any leftover outflow
boundaries from the morning activity remain over the region.
Breezy southerly winds transporting moisture back into the region
combined with near seasonal average temperatures underneath a
destabilizing atmosphere could allow for any thunderstorm activity
through this evening to become strong to severe with large hail
and locally damaging winds being the main threats. The greater
severe potential though should remain west of the CWA...closer to
the dryline.

Also this afternoon...additional convection is expected to fire
along/near the dryline again...which will have the potential to
cluster together into another MCS and move into the CWA overnight
tonight. The instability axis overnight tonight looks to be a
little more eastward than where it is this morning. This will aid
in a continued severe potential overnight tonight over the
CWA...with locally damaging winds being possible.

Tuesday through Thursday...the longwave trof is forecast to stall
over the Southwest United States with west to southwesterly upper
level flow over the Plains. Weak impulses within this flow moving
across the Plains along with the dryline remaining over Western
Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles will give a "rinse-wash-
repeat" for thunderstorm chances each day over the CWA. Any
convection along the dryline could form into an MCS at night and
approach/move into the region...with additional daytime
thunderstorm chances as the weak impulses interact with any
leftover outflow boundaries. These conditions along with a
continued unstable atmosphere will allow at least limited severe
potentials through Thursday over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas.

Latest model solutions continue to show the wave over the
Southwest United States finally lifting into the Plains
Friday...thus increasing thunderstorm chances again for the CWA.
Indications are that the wave could possibly move into the region
during the morning hours which could help to limit severe
potential...though with this several days away...will continue to
monitor latest data as this set up could likely change back-and-
forth several times. For the upcoming weekend...thunderstorm
chances will continue to be possible as another wave looks to
quickly develop and lift out of the Southwest United States into
the Plains.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  69  84  71 /  50  40  30  40
FSM   83  67  83  71 /  40  30  30  30
MLC   82  69  83  71 /  60  30  30  30
BVO   80  67  83  69 /  50  40  30  40
FYV   80  64  80  67 /  40  30  40  30
BYV   81  63  80  66 /  50  30  40  30
MKO   81  67  83  70 /  50  30  30  40
MIO   81  66  81  68 /  50  30  30  30
F10   80  68  83  70 /  50  30  30  40
HHW   82  69  83  71 /  60  30  30  30

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....20




000
FXUS64 KOUN 230905
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
405 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
An MCS continues its track across southern OK and north TX early
this morning. Very heavy rainfall and damaging winds accompanied
it earlier, and are still expected across southern OK through the
early morning hours. Most of this activity should move out of our
area near or before sunrise. Later this afternoon storms will
initiate along the dryline again from the southeastern TX
panhandle into western and northwestern OK, and move east during
the evening hours. Supercells will be likely, with ALL severe
weather threats possible. The highest rainfall totals are again
expected over western and southwestern OK, and western north TX.
These areas already received a significant amount of rainfall this
morning so we have decided to issue a Flood Watch thru early Wed
AM.

The overall forecast has changed very little for the work week.
The severe threat will continue to shift slowly east each day
with the dryline and approaching upper trough. The tornado threat
should also increase during the late afternoon and early evening
hours with the onset of the LLJ, especially across western and
southwestern OK by Tue. There may be a break in COVERAGE Wednesday with
surface convergence becoming a bit more diffuse along the
dryline. However, if any isolated supercells can manage to develop
they will again be capable of producing ALL severe weather
threats.

By Thursday, a southern stream mid to upper level shortwave trough
is expected to lift over northeast TX and into SE OK around mid
day. Heavy rainfall and embedded supercells will be possible with
this activity. Further west, the upper trough will begin to near
the southern plains with rapid height falls and increasing mid to
upper flow expected over the dryline across western OK.
Widespread severe weather continues to appear possible thru
Thursday night, including the threat of tornadoes. Finally, by
Friday, the upper trough will being to lift northeastward but will
not pass overhead until late Friday night. Additional severe
weather will remain possible from along/just west of I35 through
eastern OK.

Additional storm chances are expected through the weekend and into
early next week as another upper trough moves over the western
CONUS and WSW flow aloft ahead of it continues over the Southern
Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  67  83  68 /  30  40  20  50
Hobart OK         83  68  87  69 /  30  50  50  40
Wichita Falls TX  84  69  87  71 /  30  50  30  30
Gage OK           89  67  91  64 /  30  40  20  30
Ponca City OK     81  68  83  69 /  60  40  20  50
Durant OK         83  70  83  70 /  80  50  20  40

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flood Watch from 3 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday
     morning for OKZ021>023-027-033>039-044-045.

TX...Flood Watch from 3 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday
     morning for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

06/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 230535
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1235 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
23/06Z TAF discussion follows.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR/MVFR conditions will prevail most of forecast period with ifr
conditions possible in and near stronger storms over southwest
Oklahoma and KSPS. Shield of rain with embedded strong-severe
storms expected to pick up pace and move east of terminals toward
and after 10Z. Strong wind gusts will be possible well away from
any storms due to larger scale pressure perturbations. MVFR still
expected to dominate forecast after rain moves out with some VFR
possible after 18Z tomorrow. Low confidence on storm timing
tomorrow so prob30 was included all sites late afternoon through
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  82  68  87 /  30  20  50  20
Hobart OK         67  88  68  91 /  40  40  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  67  87  70  90 /  40  20  20  10
Gage OK           65  91  63  93 /  30  20  20  10
Ponca City OK     67  83  68  88 /  30  30  50  20
Durant OK         68  83  70  84 /  30  30  40  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Wind Advisory until 3 AM CDT early this morning for OKZ014-016-
     021-022.

TX...None.
&&

$$

06/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 230444
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1144 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Convection across western OK will make a run at eastern OK and
have introduced VCTS for the OK TAF sites around 10z...with
VCSH for the AR sites toward 15z. While brief MVFR conditions
can`t be ruled out...expect mainly VFR through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Ongoing thunderstorms in the eastern panhandles making slow
eastward progress. The expectation continues that much of this
will diminish before reaching eastern Oklahoma, with perhaps only
areas along and west of Highway 75 seeing any remnants. Of this
area, it appears that parts of southeast Oklahoma would be the
most favored at this point, given recent data from the HRRR and
current location of the most developed area of convection. Have
made a few minor tweaks to the POPs after 06Z to account for this
thinking, as well as minor changes to the Sky grids to spread
cloud cover into northwest Arkansas faster. Updated forecast
products coming soon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions expected through the period. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms possible for eastern OK TAF sites late tonight
and into Monday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge is shifting off to the east and we will be under
the influence of the western U.S. trough for at least the next
week or so. The dryline will remain well to our west for most of
the week, but we will be at risk of seeing at least the remnants
of any storms that develop well to our west making it far enough
east to affect us. Weak impulses moving out of the western trough
may also trigger scattered showers and storms within our forecast
area just about any day this week. Instability will be sufficient
for severe storms, especially from Tuesday on.

The main upper system will finally lift northeast into the central
Plains by Friday, perhaps 12 hours or so sooner than it appeared
at this time yesterday. Thus Friday will likely see the greatest
precipitation coverage, and greatest severe weather risk, of the
week.

Even after this system lifts out, another trough develops near the
West Coast, and the dryline gets left behind to our west, so storm
chances will continue through next weekend, as will the warm and
humid conditions.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  83  69  85 /  10  40  30  30
FSM   62  86  67  84 /  10  30  20  30
MLC   67  83  70  82 /  20  30  30  30
BVO   64  82  67  84 /  10  40  30  30
FYV   58  82  64  80 /   0  20  20  30
BYV   58  82  64  80 /   0  20  20  30
MKO   63  83  68  83 /  10  30  30  30
MIO   63  83  67  82 /  10  30  30  30
F10   66  82  69  83 /  20  40  30  30
HHW   65  85  69  84 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18




000
FXUS64 KOUN 222345
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
645 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF discussion follows.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions should prevail first several hours of forecast
although scattered TSRA may begin to affect western Oklahoma
terminals after 02z. Mention of TSRA will be confined to western
Oklahoma and KSPS terminals this forecast cycle as confidence
relatively low for impacts over central Oklahoma. MVFR conditions
will be common after 06Z through 18Z with some IFR possible
west central Oklahoma due to lower stratus development. Gusty
south/southeast winds will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 209 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Oklahoma and the southern plains are now under the influence of
the large upper trough over the western U.S. this influence will
continue through at least Friday. The first minor wave, well
ahead of this storm, is expected to cross the southern Texas
panhandle early Monday. In addition to the slow eastward movement
of thunderstorms over the texas panhandle tonight, this feature
is the reason for relatively higher pops across southwest Oklahoma
and adjacent parts of Texas early Monday. the dry line will be a
player Monday afternoon over the central Texas panhandle and again
Tuesday probably closer to the western Oklahoma border. Severe
weather in moderate shear and high buoyancy is expected to
initiate near the dry line both days. Mesoscale boundaries that
result from this will provide smaller-scale focus in the near
term. By Thursday the upper trough approaches Oklahoma and shear
increases. It still appears that Thursday is the most likely day
for widespread severe weather in the southern plains. This system
is finally expected to lift northeast of Oklahoma on Friday;
however, latest model runs indicate part of the trough could
linger into Saturday, but with weaker flow aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  65  79  66  82 /  30  40  30  20
Hobart OK         66  82  67  88 /  40  20  40  40
Wichita Falls TX  67  83  67  87 /  50  40  40  20
Gage OK           65  86  65  91 /  40  30  30  20
Ponca City OK     65  79  67  83 /  20  30  30  30
Durant OK         66  81  68  83 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KTSA 221708
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1208 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all area TAF sites
through the valid period. Continued the trend of end thunder
chances toward the end of the period.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Have increased forecast high for Today a couple of degrees
area-wide with temperatures running well ahead of yesterday`s
readings at this time. Have also adjusted the sky grids to
better reflect current trends as well.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the forecast period
with low chance for thunderstorms across eastern OK along with low
VFR ceilings.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Early this morning...a ridge of high pressure remained positioned
over the Central United States with a longwave trof west of the
Rocky Mountains and another one over the East Coast region. At
the surface...an area of low pressure had set up lee of the Rocky
Mountains with a dryline extending southward through Eastern
Colorado and Eastern New Mexico. Scattered convection had
developed along/near this dryline during the night with some of
the activity dissipating the farther east it traveled away from
the boundary. This allowed for high level clouds to stream
overtop of scattered mid level clouds across Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas this morning.

Through this evening...scattered cloud cover is expected again
across the CWA with breezy southerly winds as the ridge axis
shifts eastward. Southerly low level flow will help to transport
moisture back into the region...aiding afternoon temperatures to
warm close to the seasonal average today. Like yesterday
evening...scattered convection is forecast to again develop
along/near the dryline this afternoon as the atmosphere
destabilizes. This activity should remain west of the CWA through
this evening. However...there is some potential that clusters of
convection could develop into an MCS and approach/push into the
CWA late tonight and Monday morning. Thus...will carry the higher
pops west of Highway 75 in Northeast Oklahoma late tonight...with
chance pops for much of Eastern Oklahoma Monday morning. Slight
chance pops will be possible for Northwest Arkansas Monday.

This active pattern is progged to continue into the middle part
of the week as the longwave trof remains west of the Rocky
Mountains and the ridge becomes positively tilted from the
Southern Plains to the Great Lakes Region. Thus...west to
southwesterly upper level flow across the dryline interacting with
an increasingly unstable atmosphere will create varying
thunderstorm/MCS chances each day/night for the CWA through
Wednesday. At least a limited severe weather potential will be
possible over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas within any
thunderstorm development each day...though the greater potential
through Wednesday looks to be closer to the dryline over Western
Oklahoma.

During the second half of the week into the weekend...latest model
solutions continue to indicate the longwave trof finally lifting
northeast into the Plains by Friday. This will help to increase
thunderstorm chances across the CWA during this time frame...with
the greater chances Friday into Saturday as the wave moves through
the region. Again...at least a limited severe potential will
remain possible each day within the thunderstorm development.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$

&&

$$

AVIATION...10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 221536
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1036 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Have increased forecast high for Today a couple of degrees
area-wide with temperatures running well ahead of yesterday`s
readings at this time. Have also adjusted the sky grids to
better reflect current trends as well.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the forecast period
with low chance for thunderstorms across eastern OK along with low
VFR ceilings.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Early this morning...a ridge of high pressure remained positioned
over the Central United States with a longwave trof west of the
Rocky Mountains and another one over the East Coast region. At
the surface...an area of low pressure had set up lee of the Rocky
Mountains with a dryline extending southward through Eastern
Colorado and Eastern New Mexico. Scattered convection had
developed along/near this dryline during the night with some of
the activity dissipating the farther east it traveled away from
the boundary. This allowed for high level clouds to stream
overtop of scattered mid level clouds across Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas this morning.

Through this evening...scattered cloud cover is expected again
across the CWA with breezy southerly winds as the ridge axis
shifts eastward. Southerly low level flow will help to transport
moisture back into the region...aiding afternoon temperatures to
warm close to the seasonal average today. Like yesterday
evening...scattered convection is forecast to again develop
along/near the dryline this afternoon as the atmosphere
destabilizes. This activity should remain west of the CWA through
this evening. However...there is some potential that clusters of
convection could develop into an MCS and approach/push into the
CWA late tonight and Monday morning. Thus...will carry the higher
pops west of Highway 75 in Northeast Oklahoma late tonight...with
chance pops for much of Eastern Oklahoma Monday morning. Slight
chance pops will be possible for Northwest Arkansas Monday.

This active pattern is progged to continue into the middle part
of the week as the longwave trof remains west of the Rocky
Mountains and the ridge becomes positively tilted from the
Southern Plains to the Great Lakes Region. Thus...west to
southwesterly upper level flow across the dryline interacting with
an increasingly unstable atmosphere will create varying
thunderstorm/MCS chances each day/night for the CWA through
Wednesday. At least a limited severe weather potential will be
possible over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas within any
thunderstorm development each day...though the greater potential
through Wednesday looks to be closer to the dryline over Western
Oklahoma.

During the second half of the week into the weekend...latest model
solutions continue to indicate the longwave trof finally lifting
northeast into the Plains by Friday. This will help to increase
thunderstorm chances across the CWA during this time frame...with
the greater chances Friday into Saturday as the wave moves through
the region. Again...at least a limited severe potential will
remain possible each day within the thunderstorm development.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10




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